000
ABNT20 KNHC 211506
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER BELIZE...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ABNT20 KNHC 212130
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. WHILE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
TODAY AS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN OVER LAND... SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AFTER IT EMERGES INTO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
LATER TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON... IF NECESSARY.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB

GULF OF MEXICO...
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EVENING IS OVER NRN GUATEMALA AND SRN
MEXICO WITH A 1008 MB LOW WHICH HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 17N91W MOVING
W TOWARDS CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO. THE LOW IS AMAZINGLY
WELL-DEFINED FOR BEING INLAND...AND THE OBS OVER SRN MEXICO SHOW
A GOOD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING NEAR THIS FEATURE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 91W-96W. THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT IN DICTATING
WHETHER IT STAYS OVER LAND OR EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND IF THE LATTER SHOULD OCCUR THEN IT WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW IS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN...AND CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME EVEN MORE FAVORABLE IF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN.

It will stay inland so no development=no more pin of this system!

GULF OF MEXICO...
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EVENING IS OVER NW GUATEMALA AND S MEXICO
WITH A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N92W MOVING NW TOWARDS CIUDAD
DEL CARMEN MEXICO. THE LOW IS AMAZINGLY WELL-DEFINED FOR BEING
INLAND AND THE OBS OVER S MEXICO SHOW A GOOD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION...HOWEVER IT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF
20N. THE SURFACE LOW IS S OF AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM W CUBA ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO...THUS CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF. ELSEWHERE...A MUCH
LARGER UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S ALABAMA WITH A LARGE AREA
OF EASTERLIES FLOWING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF N OF 24N.
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA WITH A SQUALL LINE OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST MOVING SW.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING W ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FROM
23N-28N BETWEEN 83W-97W.

WHXX01 KWBC 220713
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982005) ON 20050822 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050822 0600 050822 1800 050823 0600 050823 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.8N 93.4W 18.5N 94.9W 18.4N 96.3W 18.4N 97.6W
BAMM 18.8N 93.4W 19.0N 94.9W 19.2N 96.3W 19.5N 97.6W
A98E 18.8N 93.4W 19.1N 94.9W 19.2N 96.5W 19.4N 98.2W
LBAR 18.8N 93.4W 18.8N 94.9W 18.7N 96.9W 18.7N 98.9W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 26KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050824 0600 050825 0600 050826 0600 050827 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.6N 98.9W 19.6N 101.9W 21.1N 105.8W 22.8N 110.1W
BAMM 19.9N 99.1W 21.1N 102.7W 22.6N 107.1W 24.2N 111.9W
A98E 19.8N 100.0W 21.7N 104.1W 24.2N 108.0W 26.3N 111.8W
LBAR 18.9N 101.3W 20.1N 106.5W 22.0N 111.4W 24.1N 116.7W
SHIP 45KTS 58KTS 71KTS 75KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 34KTS 36KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.8N LONCUR = 93.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 18.4N LONM12 = 91.9W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 18.0N LONM24 = 90.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE

GULF OF MEXICO...
PRIMARY FOCUS THIS MORNING IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S
MEXICO WITH A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST NEAR
19N93W MOVING WNW. THE LOW IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED THIS
SYSTEM WITH AN INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 21.5N FROM 91W-97W WITH SIMILAR CONVECTION RIDING
UP THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 21N-24W. THE SURFACE LOW IS BENEATH
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...THUS
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW
REMAINS IN THE GULF.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982005) ON 20050822 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050822 1200 050823 0000 050823 1200 050824 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 18.9N 94.2W 18.8N 95.6W 19.0N 96.9W 19.2N 98.2W

BAMM 18.9N 94.2W 19.2N 95.6W 19.5N 96.9W 19.9N 98.2W

A98E 18.9N 94.2W 19.2N 95.7W 19.5N 97.2W 19.8N 98.8W

LBAR 18.9N 94.2W 18.8N 95.8W 18.9N 97.6W 19.0N 99.6W

SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 40KTS

DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050824 1200 050825 1200 050826 1200 050827 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 19.5N 99.5W 20.7N 103.0W 22.3N 107.3W 23.8N 111.6W

BAMM 20.3N 99.7W 21.4N 103.6W 22.8N 108.3W 24.3N 113.5W

A98E 20.4N 100.7W 22.5N 105.3W 25.2N 109.9W 27.1N 115.3W

LBAR 19.5N 101.8W 21.0N 106.7W 23.1N 112.0W 25.1N 117.4W

SHIP 48KTS 60KTS 70KTS 72KTS

DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 34KTS 35KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 18.9N LONCUR = 94.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT

LATM12 = 18.6N LONM12 = 92.6W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 7KT

LATM24 = 18.2N LONM24 = 91.2W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

000
WONT41 KNHC 221436
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
935 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

...ELEVENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON IS FORMING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING WITHIN THE DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$

This morning, Invest.98L--soon to be officially designated TD 11--developed at 19.1N 94.4W. Per a combination of model guidance, the GFS ensembles steering analysis, and historic climatology, I expect this system to track generally westward to slightly north of west until it makes Mexican landfall.

In terms of development, I believe it will likely grow into a tropical storm. Right now, even without much data available, I could envision a 50 mph-60 mph tropical storm at landfall. At strongest, in my view, it might reach Category 1 strength, but I consider odds of that to be low until I see later data.

As I don't expect this system to climb northward offshore of Mexico toward Texas, I don't believe there will be enough time to see the explosive deepening that occurred with Hurricane #5 (1945) or Hurricane Bret (1999). Both Hurricane #5 (1945) and Hurricane Bret (1999) formed very close to 98L's point of origin at 19.4N 94.0W and 19.5N 94.4W respectively.

Major Ideas:
• 98L will likely become a tropical storm. Maximum intensity: 55 mph.
• 98L will likely make Mexican landfall.

Tropical Depression Eleven Special Discussion Number 1


Statement as of Noon EDT on August 22, 2005



satellite imagery...Mexican radar data...and Quikscat ambiguities
indicate that the area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche
has organized into a tropical depression. The initial intensity of
25 kt is based on Quikscat observations outside of the deep
convection and the presumption that the core circulation within the
convection is still broad. Upper-level outflow is very strong and
the water is warm...however...the system does not have very long
over the water to take advantage of these favorable conditions.
Although neither the SHIPS nor GFDL intensity guidance makes this
system a tropical storm...I prefer to err on the side of caution in
forecasting the depression to reach storm strength. An Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft will provide better information on the
strength of the cyclone late this afternoon.
The initial motion is 280/7. The depression is south of a mid-level
ridge and is expected to continue on a track just north of due west
until landfall.

Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 22/1600z 19.5n 95.0w 25 kt
12hr VT 23/0000z 19.7n 96.0w 35 kt
24hr VT 23/1200z 19.9n 97.6w 25 kt...inland
36hr VT 24/0000z...dissipated

000
WTNT31 KNHC 221730
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005

...DEPRESSION HEADING WESTWARD IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 85 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SOMETIME TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
PATH OF THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...19.5 N... 95.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
NOON EDT MON AUG 22 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ISSUED FOR MEXICO...

AT 11 AM CDT...1600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ
NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT NOON EDT...1600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES... 130 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 185
MILES... 300 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SOMETIME TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
PATH OF THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE NOON EDT POSITION...19.5 N... 95.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTNT41 KNHC 222033
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE DEPRESSION VERY
SHORTLY TO HELP ASSESS THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE
DEPRESSION. BASED ON SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER THE CENTER ALL DAY...AND
HAS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT. HOWEVER...ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE SYSTEM HAS LESS THAN 12 HOURS OVER WATER. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TIME TO REACH STORM STRENGTH. SHOULD THE DEPRESSION BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...IT WOULD BE THE EARLIEST FORMATION OF A
SEASON'S 11TH STORM ON RECORD. RAPID DISSIPATION SHOULD THEN
FOLLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO.

THE UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/7. THE DEPRESSION IS
SOUTH OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS...AND THIS
PATTERN SHOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE BASICALLY WESTWARD UNTIL IT
DISSIPATED. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT RESOLVE THIS SYSTEM WELL...AND
THE GFDL STALLS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
CONTINUITY OF THE CURRENT TRACK AND THE BAM OUTPUT...TAKING THE
CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE TIMING OF LANDFALL WOULD BE
DELAYED...WITH MORE INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE...IF THE SYSTEM TOOK A
PATH FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH
ASSOCIATED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 19.6N 95.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 19.9N 96.8W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 23/1800Z 20.1N 98.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED


$$

000
WTNT31 KNHC 222033
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

...DEPRESSION APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO WITH HEAVY RAINS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES... 70 KM... NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 145
MILES... 235 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD BE REACHING THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT MAKES
LANDFALL.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...19.6 N... 95.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$

461
WTNT61 KNHC 222127
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM JOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
425 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

...RECONNIASSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM JOSE...

SHORTLY AFTER 400 PM CDT... RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM JOSE WERE NEAR 45 MPH.
DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY...
MAINLY TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECASTER KNABB

could it be a cane?

Early this evening, reconnaissance found that TD 11 had grown into a tropical storm. Jose is the 2005 season's 10th named storm.

The NHC advisory:

461
WTNT61 KNHC 222127
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM JOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
425 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

...RECONNIASSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM JOSE...

SHORTLY AFTER 400 PM CDT... RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM JOSE WERE NEAR 45 MPH.
DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY...
MAINLY TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$


Overall, I feel comfortable with my earlier analysis on then Invest.98L where I expected the system to reach a maximum intensity of 55 mph.

Key Estimates:
Landfall: Near 19.8N 96.5W
Maximum intensity: 55 mph (near landfall)

867
WTNT21 KNHC 222211
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112005
2215Z MON AUG 22 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.4W AT 22/2215Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.4W AT 22/2215Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 95.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.7N 96.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.9N 97.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.1N 98.1W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 95.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB

000
WTNT31 KNHC 222223
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
515 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

...TENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 515 PM CDT... 2215 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTHWARD FROM VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL
LAGARTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 515 PM CDT...2215Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES... 95 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 160
MILES... 260 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK... THE CENTER OF JOSE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE JOSE MAKES
LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 515 PM CDT POSITION...19.6 N... 95.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

000
WTNT41 KNHC 222233
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
615 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST ON WHAT
IS NOW TROPICAL STORM JOSE. A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED MAXIMUM 1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 54 KT... SUPPORTING ALMOST 45 KT AT THE SURFACE... WHICH
IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1002 MB. ADDITIONALLY... THE POSITION OF THE
CENTER REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT JOSE IS MOVING MORE
SLOWLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 280/5. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK ASSUMES THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL LANDFALL SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO... IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
OVERNIGHT WHILE THE STORM REMAINS OVER WATER. THE WIND RADII
FORECAST... BASED IN PART ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA... NECESSITATES
EXTENDING THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD.

ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SLOWER MOTION... THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS
SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH ASSOCIATED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2215Z 19.6N 95.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 19.7N 96.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 19.9N 97.1W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 24/0600Z 20.1N 98.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED


$$

WTNT31 KNHC 222359
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES... 75 KM... NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 140
MILES... 225 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH... 10 KM/HR... AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK... THE CENTER OF JOSE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE JOSE MAKES
LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...19.7 N... 95.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

000
WTNT31 KNHC 230237
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

...SMALL TROPICAL STORM JOSE NEARING THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALREADY ONSHORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 65 KM... NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 115 MILES...
185 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR... AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF JOSE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JOSE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.8 N... 96.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

000
WTNT41 KNHC 230257
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005

THE U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS DOWN A NOTCH TO 1001 MB. HOWEVER...
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN ONLY AS STRONG AS 49 KT TO
THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER... WITHIN THE VERY DEEP
CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH THE
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT IT... THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS SIMILAR TO
WHAT IT WAS WHEN STRONGER WINDS WERE OBSERVED AT 22Z. JOSE HAS JUST
A FEW MORE HOURS OVER WATER... AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. THIS TROPICAL STORM IS
QUITE SMALL AND RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED
AFTER IT CROSSES THE COAST. HOWEVER... THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS
SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH ASSOCIATED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... EVEN POSSIBLY WELL INLAND AND MANY HOURS
AFTER LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BASED ON THE SERIES OF AIRCRAFT FIXES IS
280/7. THIS MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY... AND ASSUMING THIS MOTION CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM AS
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS... THE CENTER OF JOSE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED MIGHT OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL. JOSE SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY... AND
BEGIN LOSING ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 19.8N 96.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 19.9N 97.2W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 24/0000Z 20.1N 98.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTNT31 KNHC 230536
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

...CENTER OF JOSE MAKES LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO...WAS
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AT LANDFALL...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. THIS WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADAR AT ALVARADO INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
JOSE HAS MADE LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES... 95 KM... NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 90 MILES...
145 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH... 14 KM/HR... AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF JOSE SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOSE SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE
ALVARADO RADAR INDICATED THAT JOSE WAS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN
THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AT LANDFALL MAY HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN 50 MPH.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JOSE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...19.8 N... 96.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

248
WTNT31 KNHC 230832
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

...JOSE WEAKENING OVER EASTERN MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. THIS WARNING SHOULD BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES... 115 KM...NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT
85 MILES... 135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF JOSE SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH... 65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS
THE CENTER OF JOSE MOVES FATHER INLAND...AND THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JOSE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...19.8 N... 97.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

DATA FROM THE RADAR AT ALVARADO MEXICO INDICATED THAT JOSE BECAME
BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST TWO HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH AN
EYE FORMING. JUST HOW STRONG THE STORM GOT BEFORE LANDFALL IS
UNKNOWN...AS AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE EYE STARTED TO FORM TRMM
DATA SHOWED THE CENTER WAS PARTLY EXPOSED AND AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED
JOSE WELL SHORT OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. SINCE LANDFALL...BOTH THE
SATELLITE AND RADAR SIGNATURES HAVE WEAKENED...AND JOSE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL IT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
EASTERN MEXICO IN 24-36 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8. JOSE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION.

THE RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AS
JOSE OR ITS REMNANTS TRAVERSE MEXICO. THE COASTAL WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED AT 7 AM.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 19.8N 97.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 19.9N 98.3W 25 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 24/0600Z 20.1N 99.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Verification:

Overall, the forecast worked out well, especially the idea of a more robust storm than had been modeled at the time Invest.98L developed.

For purposes of verification, a 50 mph sustained wind is used. However, the National Hurricane Center's 2 am (1 am CDT) discussion suggests that the wind might have been somewhat higher:

THE ALVARADO RADAR INDICATED THAT JOSE WAS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL MAY HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN 50 MPH.

Key Estimates:
Landfall: Near 19.8N 96.5W; Actual: 19.8N 96.5W; Error: None--7.5 hours in advance
Maximum intensity: 55 mph (near landfall); Actual: 50 mph; Error: 5 mph--14 hours in advance

000
WTNT31 KNHC 231434
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

...JOSE DISSIPATING INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES... 160 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TUXPAN MEXICO AND ABOUT
70 MILES... 110 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF MEXICO CITY MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF JOSE SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND JOSE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JOSE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...19.7 N... 98.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT41 KNHC 231433
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE JOSE IS RAPIDLY
WEAKENING INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES
TO MOVE WESTWARD...OR 270/08...ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS.

JOSE COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING
...BUT A 12H FORECAST POINT WAS PROVIDED FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES.
ALTHOUGH JOSE IS DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE SLOW
MOVING REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO FOR THE DAY OR TWO.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST OFFICIAL FORECAST ON THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 19.7N 98.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
12HR VT 24/0000Z 19.7N 99.3W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
24HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$