000
WONT41 KNHC 231837
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

...TWELFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS FORMING WITHIN THE DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND SURFACE WINDS ARE AROUND 35 MPH.
ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM AT 5 PM EDT.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FORECASTER STEWART

2100 UTC 8/23/2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 FORECAST #1

This is an independent product.

Recon data indicates that the remnants of Tropical Depression 10 have reformed into a tropical depression. However, the system is being classified as Tropical Depression 12 officially.

Track guidance, except for the GFS which we have chosen to disregard due to very poor performances in similar situations last year with Frances and Jeanne, indicates a track mainly to the NW, followed by a westerly turn under the influence of a ridge of high-pressure to the north. The forecast track closely followed the Canadian, UKMET, and NOGAPS solutions, and is a little left of the GFDL. The 5 day forecast does bring the system close to the northern Gulf Coast; however, there are many days to address the motion once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

Recon flight level winds were 39KT, which puts the depression very close to tropical storm intensity. An upper low located to the north of the system is providing some shear to the northern semi-circle, which should prevent any rapid intensification from occurring. However, the UKMET has been showing a large ridge of high-pressure, currently located over the SE USA to move to the west and provide much more favorable conditions for this system, which should allow for significant intensification before Florida, and again in the Gulf of Mexico. SHIPS, based off of the BAMM track, brings the system close to hurricane intensity prior to landfall. To err on the side of caution, a 65KT landfall intensity in Florida is forecast. Something that needs to be addressed about the lack of intensification depicted by the model after 96 hours. The GFS has the storm too far to the east, placing the real storm in the model outflow. Instead, we are trending toward the Canadian/UKMET solutions for significant intensification in the GOM.


Initial: (1800 UTC): 22.9N 75.2W 30KT
12 Hour: 23.9N 76.5W 35KT
24 Hour: 24.9N 77.9W 45KT
36 Hour: 25.6N 79.0W 55KT
48 Hour: 25.9N 80.3W 65KT (inland)
72 Hour: 26.5N 83.3W 50KT (Gulf of Mexico)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 27.5N 85.5W 70KT
120 Hour: 29.0N 88.0W 100KT

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi/Kozich/Ortt

Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 1


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 23, 2005


...Twelfth depression of the season forms over the Bahamas...
...Tropical storm warnings issued...

at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of the Bahamas has issued a
tropical warning Storm Warning for the central and northwest
Bahamas. This includes Cat Island...the Exumas...Long Island...
Rum Cay...and San Salvador...northwestern Bahamas... the Abacos...
Andros Island...Berry Islands...Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama
Island...and New Providence.

A tropical storm or Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of
southern Florida later tonight.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was
estimated near latitude 23.2 north... longitude 75.5 west or about
175 miles... 280 km... southeast of Nassau.

The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph
...13 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds indicated by reconnaissance aircraft data
and surface observations are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a tropical storm by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.

Total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are possible over
portions of the Bahamas...and along the northern coast of Cuba...
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches possible along the
northern coast of Cuba.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...23.2 N... 75.5 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 1


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 23, 2005



data from an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft...along
with observations from the Bahamas and nearby SHIPS...indicate the
broad low pressure area over the southeastern Bahamas has become
organized enough to be classified as Tropical Depression Twelve.
The initial intensity of 30 kt is based recon winds of 39 kt at 800
ft...and ship a8ci9 reporting 30-kt sustained winds at 18z in the
northeast quadrant. Upper-level outflow is weak...but improving as
a small anticyclone has been developing above the low-level center.
The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 310/07. The low-level
center has been reforming within a large clear area noted in
satellite imagery. However...flight-level recon winds clearly
indicate a broad but otherwise well-defined low-level wind field.
There have been several small vortices develop within the
convection in the eastern semicircle and then rotate westward out
from under the convection. The initial position is roughly the
geometric center of all the small swirls...but some re-organization
of the center within the convection is possible. TD-12 is expected
to continue moving slowly northwestward toward a weakness in the
mid-level subtropical ridge. This weakness shows up best in 500 mb
data...and then disappears below and above that level. By 36-48
hours...all of the global models and the GFDL model forecast the
weakness to fill and be replaced by a broad east-west oriented
ridge. This should help to drive the cyclone more westward across
southern Florida in 60-72 hours...and then into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico by 96 hours. This scenario is consistent with the NHC model
consensus and the developing synoptic pattern.
The intensity forecast is a little tricky due to the uncertainty on
exactly when a well-defined center will develop and how soon
convection wraps around the west side of the circulation. The
upper-level flow is forecast to remain strongly difluent from the
north for the next 24-36 hours...and then become northeasterly to
easterly after that. Since the shear is also forecast to remain
relatively low at around 10 kt and SSTs will be near 31c under the
center...at least steady intensification appears to be in order. If
central convection develops within the next 24 hours...then this
system could reach hurricane strength before it makes landfall. The
official intensity forecast is slightly lower than the SHIPS model.

The NWS rules governing the naming of tropical cyclones specify
that...within a basin...when a cyclone forms from the remnant of a
previously existing cyclone...the old name/number is retained.
Tropical Depression Twelve has a complex genesis that likely
includes a mid-level remnant of former Tropical Depression Ten. A
review of satellite and rawinsonde data over the past week or so
suggests that a second disturbance approached and combined with the
mid-level remnant of Tropical Depression Ten on 20 August. Because
it is impossible to determine which of these two systems is
associated with today's genesis...we have elected to use the
designation twelve rather than ten for the new depression. This
situation differs from last year's regeneration of Ivan...in which
the low-level remnant of that system remained a distinct feature
that could be followed continuously until it regenerated.
Forecaster Stewart


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 23/2100z 23.2n 75.5w 30 kt
12hr VT 24/0600z 24.0n 76.5w 35 kt
24hr VT 24/1800z 25.0n 77.7w 40 kt
36hr VT 25/0600z 25.7n 78.5w 45 kt
48hr VT 25/1800z 26.0n 79.4w 60 kt
72hr VT 26/1800z 26.3n 81.0w 50 kt...inland
96hr VT 27/1800z 26.5n 83.5w 60 kt
120hr VT 28/1800z 27.5n 86.0w 65 kt

Tropical Depression Twelve Intermediate Advisory Number 1a


Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on August 23, 2005



...Tropical depression moving slowly over the Bahamas...

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the central and northwest
Bahamas...including Cat Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum
Cay...San Salvador...the northwestern Bahamas...the Abacos...Andros
Island...the Berry Islands...Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama
Island...and New Providence.

A tropical storm or Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of
southern Florida later tonight.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was
estimated near latitude 23.3 north... longitude 75.8 west or about
160 miles... 255 km... southeast of Nassau.

The depression is moving erratically toward the west-northwest near
7 mph... 11 km/hr... and this general motion is expected to
continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr... with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a tropical storm by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.

Total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are possible over
portions of the Bahamas...and along the northern coast of Cuba...
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches possible along the
northern coast of Cuba.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas.

Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...23.3 N... 75.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Knabb

000
WTNT32 KNHC 240248
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY ORGANIZING AND MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA EAST COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND... THE EXUMAS... LONG
ISLAND... RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR... THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND... THE BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA... GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT... 0300Z... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT
140 MILES... 230 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF CUBA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...23.4 N... 76.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT... PRIOR TO DEPARTING THE DEPRESSION
AFTER ABOUT 2230Z... CONTINUED TO REPORT A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
NEAR 1007 MB... AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DURING THIS
MISSION NEVER EXCEEDED THE 39 KT OBSERVED SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... THE CENTER HAS BEEN NEAR GEORGETOWN ON
GREAT EXUMA ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... WHERE 1007 MB AND
NEARLY CALM WINDS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED. LACKING ANY DATA TO
SUPPORT A STRONGER SYSTEM... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED
AT 30 KT. HOWEVER... RECENTLY A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION... WITH
SOME TOPS COLDER THAN -80C... HAS STRENGTHENED TO THE EAST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER... AND THIS BAND COULD WRAP SUFFICIENTLY AROUND
THE CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY FROM GREAT
EXUMA ALSO DEPICTS A NEARLY CONTINUOUS CURVED BAND OF RAINFALL
BENEATH THESE CONVECTIVE TOPS.

THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT FIXES SUGGESTED THAT THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING
ERRATICALLY. BASED ON CONTINUITY AND ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
THE BAHAMAS... THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/6 KT... A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ARE A RESULT OF
THE DEPRESSION LYING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED EAST TO WEST BETWEEN BERMUDA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. SINCE
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO
STRENGTHEN MUCH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
A SLOW MOTION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH
A WESTWARD BEND BEYOND ABOUT 36 HOURS. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE... EXCEPT FOR THE GFS... GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE SINGLE OUTLIER FORECASTING
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER FLORIDA BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

GIVEN THE SLOW TREND THIS EVENING TOWARD INCREASED ORGANIZATION...
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BEYOND THAT TIME... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC
FOR MANY REASONS... NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH IS WIDELY DIFFERING
MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL STILL DOES NOT EVEN FORECAST STRENGTHENING
TO A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER... THE SHIPS MODEL STILL INSISTS ON
HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM CROSSES
FLORIDA... WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST WIND SHEAR AND OVER VERY
WARM SSTS. AS MORE OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS... BUT
STILL LEANING TOWARD THE SHIPS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A
LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... BUT STILL
CALLS FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM TO APPROACH FLORIDA WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SINCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS IN ABOUT
36 HOURS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND PERHAPS A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE
ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY IF THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS MORE RAPIDLY THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST... AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE... ARE QUANTIFIED IN AN EXPERIMENTAL NHC TEXT
PRODUCT ISSUED WITH THIS AND EVERY ADVISORY PACKAGE DURING 2005.
THIS PRODUCT PROVIDES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES AT SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS. THE PROBABILITIES OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ARE SIMILAR AT
EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 23.4N 76.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 24.2N 76.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 25.1N 77.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 25.7N 78.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 26.1N 79.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 26.5N 81.5W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 28/0000Z 27.0N 83.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 29/0000Z 27.5N 85.5W 65 KT

000
WTNT32 KNHC 240550
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE NEAR GREAT EXUMA ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS....

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND... THE EXUMAS... LONG
ISLAND... RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR... THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND... THE BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA... GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT
135 MILES... 220 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5
MPH... 8 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF CUBA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...23.6 N... 76.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 24, 2005


...Tropical depression moving slowly northwestward through the
Bahamas...nearing tropical storm strength...

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the central and
northwestern Bahamas... including Cat Island... the Exumas... Long
Island... Rum Cay... San Salvador... the northwestern Bahamas...
the Abacos... Andros Island... the Berry Islands... Bimini...
Eleuthera... Grand Bahama Island... and New Providence. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for portions of the East
Coast of Florida and the Florida Keys from west of the Seven Mile
Bridge northward to Vero Beach. A tropical storm watch means that
tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...
generally within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch may be required later
today for portions of the Florida East Coast.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was
located near latitude 24.0 north...longitude 76.4 west or about
95 miles... 150 km...southeast of Nassau and about 270 miles...
430 km...east-southeast of the southeast coast of Florida.

The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph
...11 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours. This motion should bring the center through the
central and northwestern Bahamas.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts...mainly in squalls to the east of the center. Strengthening
is forecast during the next 24 hours...and the depression could
become a tropical storm later today.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.
Georgetown on great Exuma Island recently reported a pressure of
1006.8 mb...29.73 inches.

The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches over the central and northwestern Bahamas... with
isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Isolated rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible along the north coast
of Cuba.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves... can be expected
near the center in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas.

Repeating the 5 am EDT position...24.0 N... 76.4 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1006 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Beven

721
WTNT42 KNHC 240857
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE NIGHT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE IS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW
THAT OVERALL THE CIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED THAT IT WAS 12 HR
AGO...ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 75-90 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 45 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 925 MB IN THAT
AREA...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM SURFACE WINDS.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE WINDS ARE SO FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...AND
NONE OF THE BAHAMAS STATIONS ARE REPORTING MORE THAN 20 KT WINDS...
IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE REACHING THE
SURFACE. THUS...THE CYCLONE REMAINS A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/6. THE DEPRESSION IS
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
HIGH NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. LARGE-SCALE MODELS...EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS...FORECAST THE WEAKNESS TO FILL AND BE REPLACED BY A
RIDGE AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U. S. MOVES
EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD IN
24-48 HR...TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE GFS KEEPS A WEAKNESS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO STALL OVER FLORIDA AND THEN
MOVE NORTHWARD BY 120 HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE GFS
SOLUTION AND CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO CROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF.
THE NEW TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE OLD TRACK AND IS JUST TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE
BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND A POCKET OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW
DEVELOPMENT. ONCE THE CYCLONE CONSOLIDATES...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN
MORE QUICKLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE
SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 55-65 KT AS IT REACHES FLORIDA.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL BRINGS IT TO FLORIDA AS A DEPRESSION.
THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE REASONABLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE
SHIPS MODEL...CALLING FOR A 60 KT INTENSITY IN 48 HR. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE OVER FLORIDA...THE RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA LATER TODAY... POSSIBLY
INCLUDING A HURRICANE WATCH IF THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS MORE
RAPIDLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE... ARE QUANTIFIED IN AN EXPERIMENTAL NHC TEXT
PRODUCT ISSUED WITH THIS AND EVERY ADVISORY PACKAGE DURING 2005.
THIS PRODUCT PROVIDES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES AT SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS. THE PROBABILITIES OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ARE SIMILAR AT
EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA.


FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 24.0N 76.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 24.7N 77.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 25.5N 78.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 25.9N 78.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 26.1N 80.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 26.5N 82.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 28/0600Z 27.0N 84.0W 55 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 29/0600Z 28.0N 86.5W 65 KT


$$

Whats this trash? The recon found 51 mph flight level winds. Which supports 40 knot surface winds. Because they throw in that these winds are happing over the banding to the northeast means nothing. Why did they upgrade Arlene with a report of 40 mph winds over 150 miles northeast of the center? This is BS in should not stand in this field. Not for a second. Bret or Gert did not have this much support for there upgrade.


:angry:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER
TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES... 115 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 250 MILES...
400 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR
8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. RECENT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THE DEPRESSION IS JUST
BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 76.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT62 KNHC 241209
TCUAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA...

SHORTLY BEFORE 8 AM EDT...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS IN
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAD INCREASED TO AT LEAST 40 MPH
...MAKING THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM KATRINA.

FORECASTER STEWART

CZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR FLORIDA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO
BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY. THIS REPLACES THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATER TODAY.
A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 230 MILES...
375 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION
SHOULD BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...
65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...24.7 N... 76.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND MIAMI...
AND RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA INDICATE TD-12 HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
KATRINA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON AN 1153Z RECON
925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORT OF 48 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
...WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 36 KT AT THE SURFACE USING A STANDARD 75
PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR FOR THAT LEVEL. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT FROM ALL
THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO
INVESTIGATE KATRINA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/07. KATRINA'S CENTER MAY BE
DEVELOPING A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FIXES IN
RESPONSE TO THE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE.
HOWEVER...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT SMALL VORTICES OR MESOCYCLONES
ARE BEING GENERATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS...AND THEN
PROPAGATING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF LARGER CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL POSITION REMAINS ROUGHLY IN THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF ALL
THE SMALL VORTICES NOTED IN RADAR DATA. OVERALL...RECON DATA
INDICATE THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. THE FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FORM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
EAST-WEST ALONG 30-31N LATITUDE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
EASTWARD...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS
AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. AFTER EMERGING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 72 HOURS...THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW KATRINA TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD.

KATRINA HAS DEVELOPED A SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELD
IS CURRENTLY ELONGATED EAST-WEST...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TO THE WEST. KATRINA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 24.7N 76.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 25.4N 77.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 25.9N 78.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 26.0N 79.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 26.1N 80.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 26.3N 82.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 27.0N 84.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W 65 KT

CZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY. THIS REPLACES THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATER TODAY.
A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
KATRINA WAS REFORMING NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.0
WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND
ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TODAY AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY OBSERVED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...25.2 N... 77.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
NNNN

CZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...KATRINA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR FLORIDA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER THIS EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO
TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY...AND FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE...
INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST OR ABOUT
45 MILES... 70 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 185
MILES... 300 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING
THE CENTER THROUGH THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY OBSERVED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.6 N... 77.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
NNNN

000
WTNT42 KNHC 242100
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND MIAMI...
AND THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA INDICATE KATRINA HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. BANDING
FEATURES HAVE INCREASED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED AND REMAINS QUITE SYMMETRICAL. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS A BLEND OF RECON WIND...38 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS...AND PRESSURE DATA...1002 MB OR ROUGHLY 43 KT...AND
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. THE
INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE TO SOUTHWEST OF THE 1949Z
RECON POSITION AND IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE LARGER-SCALE
CIRCULATION BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ZERO-ISODOP PATTERN NOTED
IN THE NOAA/NWS MIAMI DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/08. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
BOTH THE INITIAL MOTION AND THE CENTER POSITION. I HAVE TRIED TO
BLEND THE POSITIONS FROM RECON...RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA. THE LAST
RECON POSITION CAN BE SEEN AS A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL VORTEX MOVING OUT
FROM UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THAT VORTEX MAY END UP BEING A TRANSIENT FEATURE. IF
IT TURNS OUT THAT THE CENTER DOES END UP FARTHER NORTH...THEN THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD ON THE
NEXT ADVISORY. OTHER THAN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION
...THE REST OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA TO KEEP BUILDING
SLOWLY EASTWARD...WHICH ULTIMATELY FORCES THE CYCLONE WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN 36-48 HOURS...AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHERE AND WHEN KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST. THE GFDN IS THE WESTERNMOST MODEL AND TAKES THE CYCLONE TO
NEW ORLEANS...WHEREAS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE THE
EASTERNMOST MODELS AND TAKE KATRINA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WITH THE IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES...SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
...AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF A
NORMAL RATE OF 10 KT PER 12 HOURS UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS SEEMS
JUSTIFIED. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...BUT MUCH
LESS THAN THE NOW VERY BULLISH GFDL MODEL WHICH BRINGS KATRINA TO
111 KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT WITH
SSTS NEAR 31C AND A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LANDFALL. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL EXPERIMENTAL
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OUTPUT...WHICH INDICATES A 57 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF THAT OCCURRING. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE
DRY AIR THAT SURROUNDS KATRINA AND HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY INTO
THE INNER-CORE REGION AND ERODING THE DEEP CONVECTION. IF THE DRY
AIR MIXES OUT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN INTENSITIES WOULD
LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING.

OWING TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EVENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 25.6N 77.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 25.9N 77.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 26.1N 78.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 26.2N 79.7W 70 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 26.3N 80.7W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/1800Z 26.4N 83.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 28.0N 85.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 29/1800Z 30.5N 85.0W 65 KT...INLAND

000
WTNT32 KNHC 242338
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...KATRINA BEGINS TO TURN MORE WESTWARD...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER THIS EVENING.

AT 8 PM...0000 EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING
ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES...105 KM...NORTH OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 165 MILES... 270
KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO
TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND IS NOW MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY OBSERVED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...26.0 N... 77.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...KATRINA HEADING WESTWARD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...HURRICANE WARNINGS
IN EFFECT...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
ESTIMATED BY THE MIAMI RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES... 95 KM...SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 220 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF KATRINA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY BEFORE
REACHING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EAST COAST. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH KATRINA IN A FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAN BAHAMA ISLAND JUST
REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...26.0 N... 78.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT42 KNHC 250243
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

THE 2300Z RECONNAISSANCE FIX AND RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI AND THE
BAHAMAS INDICATE THAT KATRINA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THIS
PATTERN WOULD FORCE KATRINA TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS MEANS THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY FRIDAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS...BRINGS
THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD. BEYOND THREE DAYS...WHEN KATRINA IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...SUGGESTING TRACKS WHICH COVER THE COAST FROM
MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS KATRINA NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A STRONG APPROACHING
TROUGH...ON A TRACK WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST IS RATHER DIFFICULT SINCE ONE OF THE MORE
RELIABLE MODELS...THE GFS...SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE BARELY TOUCHES
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD....WHILE THE
OUTSTANDING GFDL MOVES KATRINA SOUTH OF DUE WEST ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS AS A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE. THE GFDL
SCENARIO WOULD BE VERY DANGEROUS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS APPEARS TO
BE UNREALISTIC AT THIS TIME BUT BECAUSE OF THE GOOD PAST
PERFORMANCE OF THIS MODEL...WE MUST PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE
MODEL RUNS.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND A BETTER RADAR PRESENTATION. LATEST
RECONNAISSANCE DATA AT 2300 UTC DID NOT SHOW INTENSIFICATION AND
THE PRESSURE WAS NOT DROPPING. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...AND MAKES KATRINA A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...SINCE THERE IS LOW SHEAR
AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG KATRINA'S PATH. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL BUT KATRINA COULD
INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED.

BECAUSE IT IS FORECAST THAT KATRINA BECOMES A HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
EAST FLORIDA COAST.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 26.0N 78.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 26.0N 78.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 26.0N 79.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 26.0N 80.5W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/0000Z 26.3N 81.5W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W 50 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 29/0000Z 29.0N 85.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 32.0N 84.0W 30 KT...INLAND


$$

11 P.M. EDT 8/24/2005 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA UPDATE #9

This is an independent product

Tropical Storm Katrina is becoming much better organized and has started its anticipated westward turn. Katrina is expected to become a hurricane prior to landfall in south Florida.

Up to 10 inches of rain, along with isolated tornadoes are expected along the path of the storm. In the Bahamas, winds may gust to near hurricane intensity, while where the storm makes landfall in Florida, winds may gust up to 100 m.p.h. with sustained hurricane force winds. Tidal flooding is expected to be minor.

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane WARNING for Lake Okeechobee. NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING from Coral Gables, Florida to Vero Beach, a Hurricane Watch from Coral Gables to Islamorada and a Tropical Storm Warning is still recommended for the central and NW Bahamas. As always, these are only recommendations. The official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents of the Gulf of Mexico also need to monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm conditions are likely for parts of the west coast of Florida and there is potential for a destructive hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Katrina is located near 26.0N and 78.0W. This places the center about 125 miles east of Miami. The motion is to the WNW near 8 m.p.h. A turn to the west or even WSW is expected soon, bringing the system inland, somewhere in south Florida and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum winds are near 50 m.p.h. The pressure is 1001mb. Katrina is much better organized and should be a hurricane before making landfall. The current forecast is for a category 1 hurricane, though there is some chance that Katrina could be a category 2 at landfall.

Next Update: 5 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

Back to Home Page

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...KATRINA CONTINUING WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA...HURRICANE
WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
ESTIMATED BY THE MIAMI RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE
78.4 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 110 MILES... 175 KM...EAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF KATRINA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY BEFORE
REACHING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT THAT WAS ENROUTE TO KATRINA HAS HAD TO ABORT DUE TO
COMPUTER PROBLEMS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 78.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT32 KNHC 250830
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...CENTER OF KATRINA PASSING SOUTH OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...NEW
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS.

AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST OR ABOUT
20 MILES... 35 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND AND ABOUT 90 MILES... 145 KM...EAST OF FT. LAUDERDALE
FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY...
AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE COAST OF FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT
POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
36 MPH AND A GUST TO 40 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 78.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

5 A.M. EDT 8/25/2005 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA UPDATE #10

This is an independent product

Note: No aircraft data as mission was aborted due to computer problems.

Tropical Storm Katrina continues to organize as it batters the Bahamas with high winds and heavy rainfall. Katrina is expected to become a hurricane prior to landfall in south Florida.

Up to 10 inches of rain, along with isolated tornadoes are expected along the path of the storm. In the Bahamas, winds may gust to near hurricane intensity, while where the storm makes landfall in Florida, winds may gust up to 100 m.p.h. with sustained hurricane force winds. Tidal flooding is expected to be minor.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING from Coral Gables, Florida to Vero Beach, including Lake Okeechobee, a Hurricane Watch from Coral Gables to Islamorada and a Tropical Storm Warning is still recommended for the central and NW Bahamas. As always, these are only recommendations. The official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents of the Gulf of Mexico also need to monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm conditions are likely for parts of the west coast of Florida and there is potential for a destructive hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Katrina is located near 26.2N and 78.7W. This places the center about 90 miles east of Ft Lauderdale. The motion is to the WNW near 8 m.p.h. A turn to the west or even WSW is expected soon, bringing the system inland, somewhere in south Florida later today and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum winds are estimated to be near 60 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 998mb. Katrina is much better organized and should be a hurricane before making landfall. The current forecast is for a category 1 hurricane, though there is some chance that Katrina could be a category 2 at landfall.

Next Update: 8 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

000
WTNT42 KNHC 250902
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

KATRINA IS GENERATING STRONG CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C.
HOWEVER...THE RADAR APPEARANCE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT RAGGED...WITH THE
CENTER NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AND NO EVIDENCE OF THE EYE
STRUCTURE SEEN AROUND 00Z. RECENT DOPPLER RADAR DATA SHOWS THAT AN
INNER WIND CORE IS PRESENT...WHICH MAY BE THE SAME FEATURE SEEN IN
THE EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE 45 KT...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/7. KATRINA REMAINS SOUTH OF A COMPLEX
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE HAS ONLY A
SLIGHT WEAKNESS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED FLOW TRYING TO PUSH KATRINA
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE HAS A MORE
PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES IS TRYING TO PUSH KATRINA TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN WITH A SPREAD OF
LANDFALLS IN FLORIDA FROM THE KEYS TO NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT KATARINA WILL TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL A NOTABLE SPREAD. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOP OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.

KATRINA HAS BEEN BATTLING DRY AIR INTRUSION AND POSSIBLE NORTHERLY
SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW LAYER...WHICH HAS PREVENTED THE
CONVECTION FROM WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER DURING THE NIGHT. SOME
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL KATRINA
MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA...WHICH WOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE COLD TOPS AND THE INNER WIND CORE SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR KATRINA TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.
KATRINA SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE SLOWLY CROSSING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...THE RE-INTENSIFY UNDER LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0900Z 26.2N 78.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 26.2N 79.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 26.3N 80.4W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/1800Z 26.3N 81.4W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/0600Z 26.5N 82.5W 40 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 28/0600Z 27.5N 84.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 29.5N 85.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 33.0N 83.0W 30 KT...INLAND


$$

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...KATRINA SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
6 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR ABOUT
30 MILES... 45 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND AND ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM...EAST OF FT. LAUDERDALE
FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AND KATRINA COULD REACH CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING STATION AT
SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 43 MPH WITH A GUST TO 50 MPH...AND FREEPORT ON GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND ALSO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 79.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

251435
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...KATRINA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT
55 MILES... 85 KM... EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD
BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING STATION AT
SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 33 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE ALSO
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE
VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM EDT AND 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

581
WTNT42 KNHC 251504
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

KATRINA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A FEW ISOLATED DOPPLER VELOCITIES AS HIGH AS 68
KT AT 9000-10000 FT HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN OBSERVED...BUT THE
AVERAGE DOPPLER VELOCITIES OVER A 1-NMI STRETCH HAVE BEEN AROUND 55
KT...WHICH EQUATES TO ROUGHLY 50-KT SURFACE WINDS. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT
FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 55 KT FROM SAB. A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WITH SFMR CAPABILITY IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING KATRINA...
AND A RECENT REPORT INDICATES THE PRESSURE IS NOW LOWER AT 990 MB.
HOWEVER... THIS PRESSURE DROP HAS NOT YET TRANSLATED INTO A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/5. 06Z AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA HAS
CONTINUED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG 32N LATITUDE. THIS HAS
CREATED A DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT...ALBEIT A WEAK ONE.
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KATRINA
MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHEN AND WHERE THE TURN TO THE NORTH
TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR NORTHWEST FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. THE UKMET IS THE EASTERNMOST AND FASTEST MODEL AND BRINGS
KATRINA ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE GFDL IS THE
WESTERNMOST MODEL AND TAKES THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED BETWEEN
THESE SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 48
HOURS. THE GFDL MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING A
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF FLORIDA FOR THE
PAST 24 HOURS. WHILE THIS TRACK IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TO SOME
DEGREE...MY CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE GFDL IS TAKING KATRINA TOO
FAR SOUTH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS
GRADUALLY BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
KATRINA HAS BEEN MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SHARP MOISTURE
GRADIENT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR
INTO THE INNER CORE AND HAS CAUSED THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN.
HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...RADAR DATA FROM MELBOURNE AND
MIAMI INDICATE NUMEROUS SMALL BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE DEVELOPING IN
THE LARGE DRY SLOT TO THE NORTH...AND A BANDING EYE FEATURE HAS
BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OVER THE VERY
WARM GULFSTREAM AND THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN...KATRINA COULD
STILL POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. KATRINA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND
THEN RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE WARM GULF
OF MEXICO WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE LOW. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT KATRINA IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...WHICH COULD BE IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST. IN FACT...KATRINA WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 26.2N 79.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 26.2N 80.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 26.2N 81.0W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 27/0000Z 26.3N 82.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 26.7N 83.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 28.1N 84.3W 70 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 30/1200Z 34.0N 82.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

11 A.M. EDT 8/25/2005 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA UPDATE #12

This is an independent product

Tropical Storm Katrina is nearly a hurricane as it moves toward the Florida Coast. Landfall is expected late this evening or early tomorrow. Currently, Katrina continues to bring wind and rain to the Bahamas

Up to 15 inches of rain, along with isolated tornadoes are expected along the path of the storm. In the Bahamas, winds may gust to near hurricane intensity, while where the storm makes landfall in Florida, winds may gust up to 100 m.p.h. with sustained hurricane force winds. Tidal flooding is expected to be minor.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING from Coral Gables, Florida to Vero Beach, including Lake Okeechobee, a Hurricane Watch from Coral Gables to Islamorada and a Tropical Storm Warning is still recommended for the central and NW Bahamas. As always, these are only recommendations. The official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents of the Gulf of Mexico also need to monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm conditions are likely for parts of the west coast of Florida and there is potential for a destructive hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Katrina is located near 26.2N and 79.2W. This places the center about 60 miles east of Ft Lauderdale. The motion is to the west near 5 m.p.h. A slightly south of due west track is expected, bringing the system inland somewhere in south Florida, likely south of the Broward/Palm Beach County Line.

Maximum winds are estimated to be near 70 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 990mb. Katrina is expected to soon become a hurricane. The current forecast is for a category 1 hurricane, though there is some chance that Katrina could be a category 2 at landfall.

Next Update: 11 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

251642
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...KATRINA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TODAY OR THIS EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...REPORTS FROM NOAA DOPPLER RADARS AND A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST
...OR ABOUT 40 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 40 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD BE
NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE ALSO
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE
VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

1 P.M. EDT 8/25/2005 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA UPDATE #13

This is an independent product

Tropical Storm Katrina is nearly a hurricane as it moves toward the Florida Coast. Landfall is expected late this evening or early tomorrow. Currently, Katrina continues to bring wind and rain to the Bahamas and now to parts of south Florida.

Up to 15 inches of rain, along with isolated tornadoes are expected along the path of the storm. In the Bahamas, winds may gust to near hurricane intensity, while where the storm makes landfall in Florida, winds may gust up to 100 m.p.h. with sustained hurricane force winds. Tidal flooding is expected to be minor.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING from Coral Gables, Florida to Vero Beach, including Lake Okeechobee, a Hurricane Watch from Coral Gables to Islamorada and a Tropical Storm Warning is still recommended for the central and NW Bahamas. As always, these are only recommendations. The official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents of the Gulf of Mexico also need to monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm conditions are likely for parts of the west coast of Florida and there is potential for a destructive hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Katrina is located near 26.2N and 79.4W. This places the center about 45 miles east of Ft Lauderdale. The motion is to the west near 5 m.p.h. A slightly south of due west track is expected, bringing the system inland somewhere in south Florida, likely south of the Broward/Palm Beach County Line late this evening, within the next 8-12 hours.

Maximum winds are near 70 m.p.h. The pressure is 989mb. Katrina is expected to soon become a hurricane. The current forecast is for a category 1 hurricane, though there is some chance that Katrina could be a category 2 at landfall.

Next Update: 3 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...KATRINA JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NEARING THE FLORIDA COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TODAY OR THIS EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 3 PM EDT...1900Z...REPORTS FROM NOAA DOPPLER RADARS AND A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST
...OR ABOUT 35 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 35 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD BE
NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADARS
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND KATRINA COULD STILL BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. WIND GUSTS TO 37 MPH HAVE RECENTLY BEEN
REPORTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF PALM BEACH AND
BROWARD COUNTY FLORIDA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE ALSO
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE
VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 3 PM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

WTNT62 KNHC 251940
TCUAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATES
THAT TROPICAL STORM KATRINA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE...

SHORTLY BEFORE 330 PM EDT...REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI INDICATE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS INCREASED TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ONBOARD THE
NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURED HURRICANE-FORCE SURFACE WINDS...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA FROM WFO MIAMI.

FORECASTER STEWART

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...STRENGTHENING HURRICANE KATRINA BEARING DOWN ON THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR FLORIDA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM
JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO VERO BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THIS
WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE... INCLUDING ALL OF
MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 25 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE INLAND ALONG SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST LATER THIS EVENING.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE MIAMI NOAA
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
75 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED
AFTERWARDS AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
EVERGLADES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A GUST TO 64 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT BOCA RATON. DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND
NOAA DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS
ARE MOVING ONSHORE THE COASTAL AREAS OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE ALSO
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE
VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 79.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM EDT AND 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

KATRINA IS NOW A HURRICANE BASED ON NOAA RECON SFMR REPORTS OF
SURFACE WINDS TO 64 KT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THESE WINDS
ARE SUPPORTED BY NOAA-MIAMI DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES OF 90 KT AT
3000 FT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 67 KT SURFACE WINDS. THE MOST
RECENT NOAA RECON PRESSURE WHILE COMPOSING THIS DISCUSSION HAS
FALLEN 2 MB IN THE PAST HOUR TO 985 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/5. 12Z AND 18Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA HAS CHANGED
LITTLE WHILE AN INVERTED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED
NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO KATRINA. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO INDUCE A SLIGHT SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO. AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND ERODE ON THE WEST SIDE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS SLOW EVOLVING PATTERN IS FOECAST TO GRADUALLY INDUCE A SLOW
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT
36 HOURS...BUT THEN DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT. THE GFS HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT/PERSISTENT MODEL IN TAKING KATRINA SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE
GFDL...GFDN...AND UKMET MODELS HAVE NOW FLIP-FLOPPED WIDELY TO THE
WEST AND BRING KATRINA INLAND BETWEEN MOBILE ALABAMA AND GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA. THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS HAVE BEEN GIVEN LESS WEIGHT
GIVEN THEIR PERSISTENT MUCH FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THE PAST 24
HOURS...WHICH HAS NOT MATERIALIZED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS.

THERE IS STILL A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR KATRINA TO
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 70 KT BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. AFTER LANDFALL
...STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE HURRICANE EMERGES OFF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST IN ABOUT 30 HOURS. ONCE KATRINA MOVES OVER
THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW...RESTRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE SEEMS LIKELY. IT SHOULD BE
EMPHASIZED THAT KATRINA IS NOT FORECAST TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO LANDFALL
...WHICH COULD BE IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. IN
CONTRAST...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 90 KT BEFORE
LANDFALL OCCURS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL AND THE TREND IN THE GFDL MODEL...
ALTHOUGH THE LATTER MODEL MAKES KATRINA A 118-KT CATEGORY 4 STORM.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 26.1N 79.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 26.1N 80.7W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 26/1800Z 26.1N 81.7W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 27/0600Z 26.4N 82.8W 50 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 27/1800Z 27.0N 83.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 28.5N 85.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 31.5N 84.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 30/1800Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT...INLAND

6 P.M. EDT 8/25/2005 HURRICANE KATRINA UPDATE #17

This is an independent product

Hurricane Katrina is making landfall at the Dade/Broward county line, bringing wind gusts near hurricane force to south Florida. Conditions will remain severe for the next several hours as the storm slowly moves further inland. Stay off of the roads.

Up to 20 inches of rain, along with isolated tornadoes are expected along the path of the storm. Winds may gust up to 100 m.p.h. with sustained hurricane force winds. Tidal flooding is expected to be minor.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING from Coral Gables, Florida to Vero Beach, including Lake Okeechobee and now south to Key Largo, a Hurricane Watch from Coral Gables to Islamorada and a Tropical Storm Warning is still recommended for the NW Bahamas. As always, these are only recommendations. The official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Do not venture out during the eye. The east eye wall is more intense.

Residents of the Gulf of Mexico also need to monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm conditions are likely for parts of the west coast of Florida and there is potential for a destructive hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Katrina is located near 26.0N and 80.0W. This places the center about 10 miles east of the Dade/Broward County Line. The motion is to the west near 5 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue, bringing the system farther inland

Maximum winds are near 80 m.p.h. The pressure is 984mb. Katrina is will soon start to weaken as it moves inland, though should reintensify in the Gulf of Mexico.

Next Update: 7 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...EYE OF KATRINA CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN HALLANDALE BEACH
AND NORTH MIAMI BEACH WITH 80 MPH WINDS...PORT EVERGLADES JUST
REPORTED GUSTS TO 92 MPH WINDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY
SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH
OF JUPITER INLET TO VERO BEACH.

AT 7 PM EDT...2300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY AND FOR THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM EDT...2300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ON
THE COAST BETWEEN HALLANDALE BEACH AND NORTH MIAMI BEACH.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...
THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

LATEST REPORT FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE MIAMI NOAA
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 MPH... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
LIKELY ON HIGH RISING BUILDINGS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
EVERGLADES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL POINT.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 7 PM EDT POSITION...25.9 N... 80.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

Statement as of 8 P.M EDT 8/25/2005

Winds at RSMAS, on Virginia Key, are gusting up to 95 m.p.h.

Forecasters: Cangialosi/Ortt

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...KATRINA RELENTLESSLY POUNDING SOUTH FLORIDA...CALM OF THE LARGE
EYE EXPERIENCED AT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY
SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH
OF JUPITER INLET TO VERO BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY AND FOR THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 9 PM EDT...0100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.

KATRINA IS MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE KATRINA SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISING BUILDINGS.
A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EVERGLADES TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB... 29.06 INCHES. THE
MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE JUST MEASURED A
PRESSURE OF 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL POINT.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 9 PM EDT POSITION...25.8 N... 80.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA