Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 272112
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON MAJOR
HURRICANE KATRINA...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SATELLITE
IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
TONIGHT OR SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH.

It already looks like a tropical storm?

THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED A LITTLE MORE THAN 1000 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 MPH

000
WTNT43 KNHC 282022
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

DATA FROM A NEW NOAA BUOY...41041...LOCATED IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HAVE HELPED TO DETERMINE THAT A WEAK BUT LARGE SURFACE CIRCULATION
HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND IS LOCATED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KNOTS AND ONLY
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. THE
DEPRESSION COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SHIPS MODEL IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE
CYCLONE TO 62 KNOTS.

INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS
FORMATIVE STAGE. THERE ARE SEVERAL CIRCULATION CENTERS ROTATING
AROUND A LARGER GYRE AND ANY OF THEM...ESPECIALLY THE ONE FARTHER TO
THE NORTH...COULD BECOME THE DOMINANT CENTER. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. CURRENTLY THE
DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE
DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BE PLACED ALONG 65 DEGREES WEST.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 15.4N 46.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 16.0N 48.5W 25 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 17.0N 50.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 18.0N 53.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 19.0N 55.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 31/1800Z 20.5N 58.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 22.0N 61.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 02/1800Z 24.0N 64.0W 35 KT

000
WTNT33 KNHC 282022
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2005

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...EXPECTED
TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.8
WEST OR ABOUT 965 MILES...1555 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH
...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...15.4 N... 46.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

000
WTNT43 KNHC 290241
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITHIN THE
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER DISORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN...WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAIN UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
PROBLEMATIC. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST DISSIPATION WITHIN
48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. SHIPS SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE BY MID
PERIOD...GRADUALLY BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO 61 KT IN 120 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
GFDL...INDICATING SLOW STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 48
HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/10. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST
A RELATIVELY SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH IN 48 HOURS NEAR 54W JUST
BEFORE DISSIPATION. ANOTHER POSSIBLE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM
COMPLETELY SHEARS FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND CONTINUES ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS BETA ADVECTION MODELS...THE
GFDL...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CALLING FOR A GRADUAL TURN
NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 15.9N 47.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 16.9N 48.7W 25 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 18.1N 50.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 19.2N 52.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 20.4N 54.8W 35 KT
72HR VT 01/0000Z 22.5N 58.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 24.0N 60.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 25.5N 62.0W 35 KT

000
WTNT33 KNHC 290501
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2005

...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN EXPECTED TO PASS
WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 925 MILES...1490 KM... EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...15.9 N... 47.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

000
WTNT33 KNHC 290838
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST MON AUG 29 2005

...DISORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN EXPECTED TO PASS
WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST OR ABOUT
795 MILES...1280 KM... EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...16.8 N... 49.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS BECOME RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
THIS MORNING. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY 41040
SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE MORE THAN ONE CIRCULATION BENEATH THE
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. AT THE MOMENT...THE DOMINANT
CIRCULATION SEEMS TO BE NEAR THE MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER. HOWEVER... IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE CENTER WERE
TO BE RELOCATED FURTHER SOUTHWEST IN VISIBLE IMAGERY WHERE THE BUOY
INDICATED A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 10 KT. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE
25 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...SUPPORTING A 25 KT INITIAL INTENSITY.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...INDICATING GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WITHIN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/12. THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH BY 72 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AS A SHEARED SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS
SOLUTION.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 16.8N 49.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 17.8N 51.0W 25 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 19.3N 53.2W 30 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 20.7N 55.3W 30 KT
48HR VT 31/0600Z 22.0N 57.3W 35 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 23.7N 59.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 25.5N 61.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 27.0N 63.0W 35 KT

000
WTNT33 KNHC 291423
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON AUG 29 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST OR ABOUT 745
MILES...1200 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR
16 MPH ...26 KM/HR.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...IN A FEW
SQUALLS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...18.5 N... 50.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT43 KNHC 291422
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS DEGENERATED INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL WERE CORRECT IN SUGGESTING
THAT THIS CYCLONE WAS NOT GOING TO DEVELOP FURTHER. THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL PRODUCING DISORGANIZED PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 19.0N AND 51.5W.
THEREFORE...THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 18.5N 50.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 30/0000Z 20.0N 52.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING

$$

Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast/Advisory Number 5


Statement as of 15:00Z on August 31, 2005



tropical depression center located near 28.8n 50.4w at 31/1500z
position accurate within 60 nm

present movement toward the northeast or 40 degrees at 11 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1009 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 28.8n 50.4w at 31/1500z
at 31/1200z center was located near 28.4n 50.8w

forecast valid 01/0000z 30.0n 49.0w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 01/1200z 32.0n 48.0w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 02/0000z 34.0n 47.0w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 02/1200z 36.0n 46.0w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.

Forecast valid 03/1200z 38.0n 45.0w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 0sw 0nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 04/1200z 40.0n 44.0w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Outlook valid 05/1200z 44.0n 39.5w...extratropical
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 28.8n 50.4w

next advisory at 31/2100z

forecaster Avila

Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 5


Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 31, 2005


...Tropical Depression Thirteen regenerates between Bermuda and the
Azores...no threat to land...

at 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 28.8 north...longitude 50.4 west or
about 890 miles...1430 km...east-southeast of Bermuda and about
1485 miles...2390 km...west-southwest of the Azores.

The depression is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph...20
km/hr. A turn to the north-northeast with a gradual decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On this
track...the cyclone will be moving over the open waters of the
North Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm later today.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Repeating the 11 am AST position...28.8 N... 50.4 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM AST.

Forecaster Avila

606
WTNT43 KNHC 311439
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WHICH BECAME A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO HAS RE-GENERATED INTO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STATUS. THIS IS BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 2.0
FROM TAFB AND SAB AND A SSM/I MICROWAVE IMAGE AROUND 10Z WHICH
SHOWS A CONVECTIVE RING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE
BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER BUT THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED. IT
APPEARS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
AND IF IT NOT ONE NOW...IT COULD BE ONE LATER TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 11
KNOTS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE POORLY DEFINED
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD TURN MORE TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A BUILDING HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TRACK IS IN
BETWEEN THE GFDL AND CLIMATOLOGY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 28.8N 50.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 30.0N 49.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 32.0N 48.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 34.0N 47.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 36.0N 46.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 38.0N 45.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 40.0N 44.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 05/1200Z 44.0N 39.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

000
WTNT33 KNHC 312025
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED AUG 31 2005

...TROPICAL STORM LEE...THE 12TH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON...FORMS
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE AZORES...POSES NO THREAT TO LAND...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST OR ABOUT 900
MILES...1445 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1390 MILES...2240
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

LEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...30.5 N... 49.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

000
WTNT43 KNHC 312025
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2005

THERE IS AN UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE UNDER THE
CONVECTION...BUT THE OUTFLOW IS LIMITED. BASED ON 2.5 DVORAK
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY AND AMSU ESTIMATES FROM
CIMSS/NESDIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM 30 TO
35 KNOTS. THIS REQUIRES UPGRADING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
TROPICAL STORM LEE...THE 12TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 SEASON.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING SINCE
THE OCEAN IS RELATIVELY WARM BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
VERY FAVORABLE.

LEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS
AROUND A MID-TO UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST.
THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK WHICH KEPT THE CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH
NORTHEAST. THIS CHANGE IS BASED ON THE LASTEST RUN OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE GFDL WHICH TAKE A LOW PRESSURE AREA...OR THE MODEL
REPRESENTATION OF TROPICAL STORM LEE...AROUND THE LARGER UPPER-LOW
AND A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. ANY
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 30.5N 49.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 32.3N 49.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 34.0N 49.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 35.0N 49.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 36.0N 50.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 37.0N 50.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 38.0N 51.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 39.0N 51.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$

000
WTNT33 KNHC 010231
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED AUG 31 2005

...LEE WEAKENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.1 WEST OR
ABOUT 925 MILES...1490 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1340
MILES...2155 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...31.2 N... 49.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN

000
WTNT43 KNHC 010231
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2005

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED
WITH LEE HAS BECOME MUCH LESS ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
EXISTS...BUT IN THE INTEREST OF CONTINUITY WE WILL ASSUME A CENTER
STILL EXISTS UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THIS CONVECTION IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELONGATED AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A NEW AND
EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON THE DEGREDATION OF THE CLOUD
PATTERN...LEE IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION WITH AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. GIVEN THE TREND IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
APPARENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...AND AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...THE FORECAST HOLDS THE INTENSITY AT 30 KT THROUGH 36
HOURS AND DISSIPATES LEE AFTER 72 HOURS. IF THE SATELLITE PATTERN
DOES NOT IMPROVE SHORTLY...THIS FORECAST COULD BE GENEROUS.

LEE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A MUCH LARGER
DEEP-LAYER LOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST. ACCORDINGLY...THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS AND THE CURRENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 025/09. THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE DEEP-LAYER LOW
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS THEN SLOW AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
IN FACT...THE GFS STALLS THE DEPRESSION BEYOND 36 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 31.2N 49.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 32.2N 48.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 33.0N 48.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 33.8N 48.4W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 34.5N 48.7W 25 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 35.5N 49.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED


$$

000
WTNT33 KNHC 010831
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU SEP 01 2005

...DISORGANIZED LEE RE-LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST OR ABOUT
790 MILES...1270 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1435 MILES...2310
KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF LEE HAS SEPARATED FROM
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...31.9 N... 51.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$

000
WTNT43 KNHC 010832
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2005

A REVIEW OF MICROWAVE DATA STARTING AT ABOUT 31/1720Z SUGGESTS THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF LEE MOVED NORTHWARD BETWEEN 31/1800Z-
01/0000Z AND NORTHWESTWARD SINCE THEN...AND DID NOT FOLLOW THE
CONVECTION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS 50W. AT THE MOMENT...A
WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS EXISTS ABOUT 90 N MI W OF THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION...AND WELL TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY POSITION. THUS...THE INITIAL POSITION IS A CONSIDERABLE
RE-LOCATION FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE WEAKENING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED
ON A 29 KT WIND REPORTED BY SHIP ELTZ7.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/10. THE CENTER OF LEE
APPEARS TO HAVE MADE A PARTIAL LOOP AS IT MERGES WITH A BROAD
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WAS FORMING TO ITS NORTH. MOST
LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAD A POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE CYCLONE...WITH
THE CENTER TOO FAR EAST AND A FORECAST TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
THE CANADIAN MODEL HAD THE BEST INITIALIZATION AND DRIFTS LEE
NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HR. THE VARIOUS BAM MODELS CONTINUE THE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 24 HR AND THEN TURN LEE NORTHWARD. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK
BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION... CALLING FOR A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME ERRATIC LOOPING MOTION DURING THE FIRST 12
HR OR SO AS LEE AND THE OTHER LOW FINISH THEIR MERGER.

THE MERGER OF LEE AND THE NON-TROPICAL LOW CALLS INTO QUESTION HOW
TROPICAL LEE ACTUALLY IS...ESPECIALLY SINCE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR JUST WEST OF THE
SURFACE CENTER. NEITHER THE GFDL OR SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR
STRENGTHENING FOR 96 HR...AND THE CANADIAN BREAKS THE CIRCULATION
OPEN INTO A TROUGH AFTER 72 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE
THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ON THE PREMISE THAT CONVECTION
COULD RE-FORM FOR A TIME NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER. HOWEVER...IF
THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...LEE COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW OR
TO EXTRATROPCIAL STATUS WITH 24 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 31.9N 51.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 32.7N 51.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 33.4N 51.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 34.6N 51.6W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 35.8N 51.6W 25 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 38.0N 51.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTNT33 KNHC 011432
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU SEP 01 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST OR
ABOUT 780 MILES...1255 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1445
MILES...2325 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEWHOURS BUT
IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH
... 6 KM/HR...LATER TODAY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LEE BECOMES A WEAK LOW LATER
TODAY OR FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...31.9 N... 51.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

000
WTNT43 KNHC 011434
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2005

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF
DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT THE
CYCLONE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER...WE WILL
KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME BASED
PRIMARILY ON A 31-KNOT WIND OBSERVATION FORM THE SHIP ELTZ7 AT 12Z.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING SINCE THE
DEPRESSION IS NEAR AN UPPER LOW. THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND THE OCEAN IS NOT COOL. THEREFORE...SOME CONVECTION
MAY REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT
IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 3 KNOTS
AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE DEPRESSION.


FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 31.9N 51.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 32.3N 51.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 02/1200Z 33.5N 52.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 03/0000Z 34.5N 52.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 03/1200Z 36.1N 52.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED


$$

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2005

THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A
TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEFINING THE CENTER. THE CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO A BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS
MORE TYPICAL OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT BECAUSE THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER...IT IS
OPTED TO KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A 30-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE DEPRESSION MAY BE A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

LEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS.
THE CYCLONE IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM SO IT SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERAL
NORTHWARD TRACK STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 32.4N 51.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 32.9N 51.7W 25 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 34.0N 52.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 03/0600Z 35.5N 52.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 03/1800Z 37.5N 52.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTNT33 KNHC 012018
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 01 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE LINGERING IN THE NORTH ATALNTIC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST OR ABOUT
775 MILES...1250 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1430 MILES...2305
KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH
...7 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...32.4 N... 51.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT33 KNHC 020225
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST THU SEP 01 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISSIPATING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 730 MILES...1175 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1475
MILES...2375 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
WINDS NEAR 30 MPH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...32.4 N... 52.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB

000
WTNT43 KNHC 020239
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2005

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LEE
HAS BEEN SHEARED OFF TO THE EAST WITH RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS.
THE DEPRESSION NOW CONSISTS ONLY OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON LEE UNLESS
REGENERATION OCCURS. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM
WINDS NEAR 30 KT BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT BASED ON
THE DEGENERATION OF THE CONVECTION. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN 25 KT WINDS PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE REMNANT LOW
CENTER THROUGH 48 HOURS.

LEE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE
12 HOUR MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290/06. NOW THAT THE
CYCLONE IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERAL
NORTHWARD TRACK STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
DISSIPATING DEPRESSION.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 32.4N 52.3W 25 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 33.1N 53.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 03/0000Z 34.0N 53.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 03/1200Z 35.0N 53.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 04/0000Z 37.0N 53.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED


$$

Tropical storm Lee
12am 9-6-2005

Forecaster Matthew

Tropcial storm Lee was a short lived tropical storm...

A well defined tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa. Around the third week of August. This area of elongated low presure moved west across the Eastern Atlantic. This system slowly beecame better organized from the 26th into the 27th. In which had a markly increase an overall convection. The system shown very good shape at this time.

The nhc upgraded the system into a depression around 5pm 28th. In which a buoy 41041 shown a weak surface low pressure/LLC. Over the next few days the system became disorganized. As it moved northwestward. By 11am 29th surface data/visible shown that the system had become a tropcal wave. The system for the next couple of days turned to the north...

The system by the 31st. Around 11am, on visible shown that a well defined LLC. With Sab/tafb now showing 2.0. Which supported the upgrade. At 5pm the system had become organized enough to be upgraded to Lee based on a sab/tafb t numbers of each 2.5. In a improvement of the overall convection. But this would be short lived as shear/dry air would shortly push the convection to the southeast. In which by 11pm the system was down graded to a tropical depression.

The devoid of convection depression turned to the northwest for the next few days. Slowly lossing its tropical core. In which was down graded 11pm 1st of Semptember.


...................