AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS EVENING BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD 1008 MB TROPICAL ATLC SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
15N39W MOVING WNW 10 KT. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION...BUT REMAINS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION SURROUND THE
CENTER WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE 11N38W-17N37W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 35W-41W.

A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE QUITE ENOUGH
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...BUT COULD BECOME ONE AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD.

A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1225 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE QUITE ENOUGH
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...BUT COULD BECOME ONE AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD.

This system is more organized then LEE. Give me a break it has a well defined LLC with convection. Quickscats shows 40 knot flages. No nhc its a tropical storm.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 1125 MILES EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD.

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 1


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 01, 2005



latest satellite Dvorak classifications indicate that a tropical
depression has formed in the central tropical Atlantic about 1000
miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. First visible imagery
showed a well defined low-level circulation near an area of deep
convection to the north. However...since that time the low-level
circulation has become less defined and the convection has weakened
as an upper-level low to the southwest is producing shear over the
depression. Global models agree that the upper low should move west
and separate itself from the system...thereby reducing the shear.
Model guidance are giving conflicting signals...with the GFS and
GFDL models dissipating the system in about 48 hours...and the
SHIPS intensity guidance showing steady strengthening to hurricane
strength beyond 48 hours. The official forecast will indicate slow
strengthening in about 24 hours as the combination of lighter shear
and warmer water should provide more favorable conditions...taking
the system to 55 kt at 120 hours which is considerably less than
the 86 kt SHIPS is forecasting at that time.
The initial motion is 285/14. The depression is moving around the
western periphery of a deep-layered ridge over the eastern
Atlantic. The system is expected to slow down over the next day or
two as it approaches a weakness in the ridge near 50w. Global
models are in agreement on the presence of a mid/upper level trough
moving south between Bermuda and the Leeward Islands. This feature
should eventually turn the cyclone to the northwest and then north
beyond 72 hours as the deep-layered ridge amplifies to the east.
The forecast track is in general agreement with the dynamical model
suite through 48 hours...then is close to the NOGAPS model beyond
48 hours.
Forecaster Molleda/Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 01/1500z 19.0n 46.1w 30 kt
12hr VT 02/0000z 19.6n 48.0w 30 kt
24hr VT 02/1200z 20.4n 50.4w 35 kt
36hr VT 03/0000z 21.2n 52.3w 40 kt
48hr VT 03/1200z 22.1n 54.0w 45 kt
72hr VT 04/1200z 24.0n 57.0w 50 kt
96hr VT 05/1200z 26.5n 59.0w 50 kt
120hr VT 06/1200z 31.0n 60.5w 55 kt

000
WTNT34 KNHC 011444
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU SEP 01 2005

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1115 MILES...1795 KM...EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH
...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...19.0 N... 46.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA


$$

000
WTNT44 KNHC 012025
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2005

THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF THE
MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CAUSING THE
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD PLACE THE DEPRESSION UNDER
A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS SHEAR. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SPLIT IN FORECAST INTENSITIES...
WITH ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE UKMET MODEL DISSIPATING
THE SYSTEM IN 48-72 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE
BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
THE FORECAST INTENSITY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR
12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY SLOW STRENGTHENING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS
A VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10...SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST AND
AN UPPER LOW REMAINS NEAR 65W BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO.
DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...THE TRACK IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND REMAINS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE THROUGH 48 HOURS.
BEYOND THIS TIME...THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A GENERAL MOTION TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST.

FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 19.6N 46.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 20.3N 48.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 21.3N 49.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 22.5N 51.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 23.7N 52.9W 45 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 26.5N 55.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 57.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 33.0N 58.0W 55 KT

000
WTNT34 KNHC 012030
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 01 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN REMAINS OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.6 WEST OR ABOUT
1085 MILES...1740 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...19.6 N... 46.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA

000
WTNT34 KNHC 020241
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST THU SEP 01 2005

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN ATLANTIC...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 1035 MILES...1665 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...20.4 N... 47.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

000
WTNT44 KNHC 020301
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2005

THE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION... WITH JUST
A VERY LIMITED AREA OF -70C CLOUD TOPS TO THE WEST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE NO GREATER THAN
2.0... AND THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 N MI TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO IMPOSE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT IS IMPEDING
ANY STRENGTHENING... AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND
SHEAR...ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE...DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO. THE PROSPECTS FOR
INTENSIFICATION ARE THEREFORE LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD. IN
FACT...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY
WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND THE
GFS EVEN FORECASTS DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. PRESUMABLY DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONE... THE SHIPS FORECASTS WEAK SHEAR
AND INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND ANTICIPATES SLIGHTLY LESS
STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10... A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT
OR EAST THAN EARLIER. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...THE
EXPECTATION OF A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM...AND A BIT OF AN EASTWARD
SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERHIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 20.4N 47.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 21.2N 48.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 22.4N 50.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 23.9N 51.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 25.5N 53.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 29.0N 55.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 31.5N 56.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 34.0N 56.5W 50 KT

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN REMAINS IN A SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED
AT THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF A RECTANGULAR CONVECTIVE MASS WITH TOPS
COLDER THAN -70C. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM ALL
AGENCIES...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9...JUST A TRIFLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE IS OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS
BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS
PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE A INITIAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL FOLLOW IT. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 24
HR...A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BY 120 HR...AND A LITTLE
FASTER.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THE DEPRESSION WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY SHEAR. SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFDL...DISSIPATE
THE SYSTEM BEFORE 120 HR. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS MODEL
CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 84 HR...AND THE
ECMWF HOLDS ON TO IT THROUGH 120 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES... CALLING FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM FOR
24 HR...ANY PERSISTENT BURST CONVECTION COULD CAUSE IT TO BECOME A
STORM AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME IN THE NEXT 24 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 20.6N 48.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 21.6N 49.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 23.2N 50.9W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 25.0N 52.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 26.8N 53.7W 40 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 29.5N 55.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 32.0N 56.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 07/0600Z 34.5N 56.5W 50 KT

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2005

...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.1 WEST OR ABOUT
990 MILES...1595 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...
17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...20.6 N... 48.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$
NNNN

000
WTNT34 KNHC 021439
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM
MARIA...NO THREAT TO LAND...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN HAS
STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM MARIA...THE 13TH NAMED
CYCLONE OF THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST OR ABOUT 880 MILES...1415 KM...
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1185
MILES...1910 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
LATER TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK..MARIA WILL BE MOVING OVER OPEN
WATERS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...21.3 N... 50.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

000
WTNT44 KNHC 021441
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2005

THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE
BUT A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER.
CONSEQUENTLY...T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES INCREASED TO 2.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. IN ADDITION...LATEST QUICKSCAT SHOWS A CIRCULATION
BETTER DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY WITH SEVERAL 35-KNOT UNCONTAMINATED
WIND VECTORS...AND A COUPLE PEAKING AT 45 KNOTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS THEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MARIA...THE 13TH TROPICAL STORM
OF THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH...RESULTING IN
LIGHTER SHEAR NEAR MARIA. SHIPS MODEL MAKES MARIA A HURRICANE BUT
SINCE EVERY OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFDL...WEAKENS IT...ONLY
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST...GIVING A LOT
OF WEIGHT TO THE GFDL AND THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...BUT IT SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. MARIA IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
IN BETWEEN A BUILDING HIGH TO THE EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH ALONG
65W. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A TIGHTLY-
PACKED ENVELOPE OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY TRACKS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 21.3N 50.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 22.2N 51.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 24.0N 53.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 26.0N 54.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 28.0N 55.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 30.0N 56.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 33.0N 57.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 36.0N 58.0W 50 KT

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2005

...MARIA A LITTLE STRONGER...NO THREAT TO LAND...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST OR ABOUT 850
MILES...1370 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND ABOUT 1125 MILES...1810 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...22.0 N... 50.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

000
WTNT44 KNHC 022033
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2005

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE ITS SATELLITE
PRESENTATION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR BUT THE OUTFLOW
IS EXPANDING PRIMARILY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. T-NUMBERS FROM ALL
THREE AGENCIES ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS. SINCE MARIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LOW AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...
AND NOW THAT SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS BOTH FORECAST MARIA TO BE A
HURRICANE WITH 85 KNOTS...I AM CONFIDENT IN BRINGING THE WINDS UP A
LITTLE BIT MORE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY WHEN THE GFS DISSIPATES THE
CYCLONE SOON.

IT APPEARS THAT MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES
AT 11 KNOTS...TRAPPED IN BETWEEN A DEVELOPING HIGH TO THE EAST AND
THE WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE UPPER-LOW
WEAKENS...MARIA SHOULD TURN MORE TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A NEW DEVELOPING
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. MODELS ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED INDICATING A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AND
NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 22.0N 50.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 23.3N 52.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 25.5N 53.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 28.0N 54.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 30.0N 55.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 32.5N 56.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 34.0N 57.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 36.0N 58.0W 65 KT


$$

000
WTNT34 KNHC 030245
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2005

...MARIA CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...WELL AWAY FROM LAND...WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST OR ABOUT
810 MILES...1305 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1070 MILES...1720 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND MARIA COULD BE VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...22.4 N... 51.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$

000
WTNT44 KNHC 030304
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2005

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF MARIA HAD DETERIORATED MARKEDLY DURING
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z... WITH SUBSTANTIAL WARMING OF THE INFRARED
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM SSMI AT 2152Z AND
FROM SSMIS AT 2324Z REVEALED VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER AND ONLY REMAINING IN LIMITED PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE 3.0/45 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE DATA T NUMBERS HAD COME DOWN TO 2.5. MORE
RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A BURST OF CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE... WITHOUT WHICH IT WOULD BE TEMPTING TO ADJUST
THE INITIAL INTENSITY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD... SO THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT.

IT IS A LITTLE CHALLENGING TO PRECISELY LOCATE THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION... BUT WITH THE HELP OF THE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES JUST
BEFORE 00Z... THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10... SIMILAR TO
EARLIER TODAY. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED EAST TO
WEST ALONG ABOUT 25N. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
GRADUAL TURN... BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO... WITH A
LITTLE MORE SPREAD BEYOND THAT TIME. THE LATTER PORTIONS OF SOME
OF THESE MODEL FORECASTS ARE A LITTLE COMPLICATED... WITH A VARIETY
OF EVOLUTIONS. THE NOGAPS SUGGESTS A WEAKENED MARIA WILL MERGE IN
ABOUT FOUR DAYS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR BERMUDA TO FORM A
STRENGTHENING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON DAY 5. THE UKMET DOES NOT
FORECAST THIS EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BUT HAS MARIA STALLING EAST
OF BERMUDA BY THAT TIME... AND THERE IS NOTHING LEFT OF MARIA IN
THE GFS BY 72 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE CLEARER THAN LAST NIGHT.
THE 18Z GFDL... AS IN THE EARLIER 12Z RUN... FORECASTS MARIA TO
BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS
SIMILAR. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS... HOWEVER... FORECAST AT LEAST
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF MARIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
FORECAST MARIA TO BECOME A HURRICANE... BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT
DISORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION AND THE GFDL/SHIPS GUIDANCE...
DELAY THE STRENGTHENING A LITTLE LONGER.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 22.4N 51.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 23.7N 52.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 25.5N 54.1W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 27.5N 55.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 29.3N 55.7W 65 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 32.0N 56.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 07/0000Z 34.0N 57.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 08/0000Z 36.0N 56.5W 65 KT

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT SEP 03 2005

...MARIA CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.4 WEST OR ABOUT 780
MILES...1255 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND ABOUT 975 MILES...1570 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND MARIA COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...23.4 N... 52.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005

MARIA IS GENERATING A MASS OF CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C
NEAR OR NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...ALTHOUGH JUST HOW FAR NORTH
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO CIRRUS OBSCURING THE
CENTER AND NO RECENT MICROWAVE DATA. THE STORM HAS FAIR CIRRUS
OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE. THE
MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/11...UNCERTAIN MAINLY BECAUSE
THE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A FASTER MOTION. MARIA IS BETWEEN THE
LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A COMPLEX DEEP
LAYER TROUGH TO THE WEST. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD MOVE THE STORM
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 72 HR AS INDICATED BY ALL THE
TRACK GUIDANCE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THERE IS A RANGE OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS OF HOW MARIA WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFS LOSES THE STORM...WHILE THE
UKMET MAKES IT LARGE AND STRONGER WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD...AND THE
GFDL RACES IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE SPREAD...THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
AFTER 72 HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

MARIA IS DEVELOPING SOME ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND IS FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR FOR 48 HR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL STRENGTHEN THE STORM TO 70 KT IN 48 HR AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE GFDL. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUALLY
COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 23.4N 52.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 24.6N 53.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 26.6N 54.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 28.4N 55.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 30.2N 56.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 33.0N 57.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 34.5N 57.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 08/0600Z 36.0N 56.5W 65 KT

000
WTNT34 KNHC 031430
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT SEP 03 2005

...MARIA A LITTLE STRONGER...NO THREAT TO LAND...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST OR ABOUT
770 MILES...1235 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND ABOUT 835 MILES...1345 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...25.1 N... 53.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT44 KNHC 031436
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AND ROUND
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. AT 12Z...T-NUMBERS
ONLY SUPPORTED 45 KNOTS...BUT SINCE THEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION
HAS IMPROVED AND THE LATEST QUIKSCAT SHOWS A FEW 50-KNOT WIND
VECTORS. THEREFORE...NITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50
KNOTS. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER WARM WATERS FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS AND WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AWAY FROM THE
UPPER-LOW ...AND STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS A BLEND OF THE MODEST INTENSIFICATION SUGGESTED BY SHIPS AND THE
AGGRESSIVE GFDL WHICH BRINGS MARIA TO 100 KNOTS IN ABOUT 36
HOURS.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE FASTER...ABOUT 13
KNOTS...BETWEEN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE
CYCLONE...AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
PERSISTENT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MARIA ON A NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STEERING CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...MARIA SHOULD ALREADY BE APPROACHING THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND HAS CONSISTENTLY BROUGHT MARIA NORTHWESTWARD AND
NORTHWARD.

A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT 12-FOOT SEAS ARE EXTENDING
OUTWARD MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND THE RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 25.1N 53.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 26.5N 55.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 28.5N 56.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 30.5N 57.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 32.0N 57.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 34.5N 57.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 07/1200Z 36.5N 57.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 08/1200Z 38.0N 52.9W 60 KT

TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005

THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. THE
CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THERE IS A
WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE
OUTFLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND LASTEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS
THAT MARIA IS DEVELOPING AN INNER CORE. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE
BEEN AVERAGING AROUND 4.2 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND A
WARM OCEAN IS AHEAD OF MARIA...AND I CAN NOT IGNORE THE SHIPS...THE
GFDL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS WHICH BRING THE MARIA TO NEAR
100 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MARIA TO
REACH AT LEAST 90 KNOTS AND THEN SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 3
DAYS AS THE CIRCULATION APPROACHES COOLER WATERS.

MARIA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS.
MARIA SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
NORTH FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS
MOTION IS CONTROLLED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE CYCLONE...AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST SINCE ALL MODELS ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. ONCE MARIA REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF
A TROUGH IT SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE SPEED OF THE CYCLONE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE ALL MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT SPEEDS. THERE IS A
LARGE VARIATION IN THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AMONG
MODELS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 26.1N 54.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 27.8N 56.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 30.0N 57.0W 80 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 32.0N 57.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 34.0N 58.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 36.0N 57.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 39.0N 53.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 08/1800Z 41.0N 48.1W 65 KT

000
WTNT34 KNHC 032037
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT SEP 03 2005

...MARIA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...NO THREAT TO LAND...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.8 WEST OR ABOUT 760 MILES
...1225 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
740 MILES...1190 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT
OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...26.1 N... 54.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT SEP 03 2005

...MARIA STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA...

AT 11 PM AST... 0300Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST OR ABOUT
695 MILES... 1115 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH... 22 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH... 110 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND MARIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES... 185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB... 29.38 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...27.1 N... 54.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

753
WTNT44 KNHC 040300
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005

MARIA APPEARED TO BE ON THE CUSP OF HURRICANE STATUS EARLIER
TODAY... BUT CONVECTION HAS SINCE BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS VIGOROUS.
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED... ALTHOUGH MAYBE NOW
A LITTLE MORE ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB... AND BOTH
AGENCIES HAVE ANALYZED A DATA T NUMBER OF 3.5. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT. THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE TRYING TO
MAKE A COMEBACK AROUND THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO... SO
THE RECENT SPUTTERING MIGHT ONLY BE TEMPORARY.

THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 330/12 KT IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER
AND TO THE EAST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE STEERING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS BEING PROVIDED BY A LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF MARIA. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS TO BUILD NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS... RESULTING IN ONLY A GRADUAL BEND IN THE TRACK TO THE NORTH.
THEREAFTER... A MIDDLE LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND ERODE THE RIDGE... AND ACCELERATE MARIA NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY
FROM NORTH AMERICA. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
BEFORE THE RECURVATURE... BUT AS USUAL DIFFER IN THE SUBSEQUENT
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND
NOGAPS MODELS WHICH DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM THAN THE FASTER GFS
THAT KEEPS THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA SEEMINGLY TOO WEAK. THIS IS
JUST A HAIR TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH ABOUT 48
HOURS AND IS FASTER AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

MARIA HAD BEEN STRENGTHENING TODAY WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT... BENEATH A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THAT IS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BERMUDA AND A
LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
IT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THIS RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...
AND SINCE THE SSTS WILL REMAIN GREATER THAN 28C DURING THIS
PERIOD... SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED... BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS BEFORE DUE TO THE RECENT LEVELLING OFF AND LESS BULLISH
GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS AT 80 KT... WHICH IS JUST A
LITTLE LESS THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND FAVORS THE
GFDL WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. AFTER RECURVATURE BEGINS... MARIA
IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH
OF THE RIDGE. THE INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR COMBINED WITH COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADY WEAKENING.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 27.1N 54.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 28.6N 55.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 30.8N 56.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 33.0N 57.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 35.2N 56.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 38.5N 53.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 41.0N 50.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 42.5N 45.0W 55 KT

000
WTNT34 KNHC 040840
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2005

...MARIA BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST OR ABOUT 645
MILES...1040 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED BY TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...MARIA SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA AND ONLY
POSE A THREAT TO SHIPPING INTERESTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES... 20 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...28.0 N... 55.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT44 KNHC 040834
TCDAT4
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005

THE INNER CORE CONVECTION OF MARIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING AS REVEALED IN CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A 03/2333Z SSMI OVERPASS AND A 04/0152Z AMSU OVERPASS BOTH
INDICATED NEARLY CLOSED EYEWALL FEATURES...AND THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN DEPTH AND ORGANIZATION
SINCE THEN...WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER. A T4.0/65
SATELLITE ESTIMATE WAS PROVIDED BY BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ODT
VALUES RANGE BETWEEN T4.3 TO T4.5. THEREFORE...MARIA HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2005 SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/12. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A LARGE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG 34N LATITUDE.
AFTER MARIA REACHES THE RIDGE AXIS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...GRADUAL
RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...MORE RAPID MOTION IS FORECAST AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST
AND ACCELERATES MARIA TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND MARIA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND OVER SSTS
OF AT LEAST 28C FOR THE NEXT 36-42 HOURS. AS A RESULT...SOME MODEST
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SMALL INNER CORE WIND FIELD AND EYE NOTED IN
MICROWAVE DATA...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MARIA REACHING 90 KT.
BY 48 HOURS...THOUGH...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER STEADILY
COOLER WATER WHILE ENCOUNTERING INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OF 30-40 KT...WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT STEADY WEAKENING. BY 96
HOURS...MUCH COOLER WATER AND INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 28.0N 55.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 29.5N 55.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 31.6N 56.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 33.4N 56.7W 80 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 35.2N 55.9W 75 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 38.7N 51.8W 65 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 41.0N 47.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/0600Z 42.5N 42.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$

000
WTNT34 KNHC 041431
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2005

...MARIA CONTINUES MOVING OVER OPEN WATERS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT 605
MILES... 970 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED BY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...28.8 N... 55.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

000
WTNT44 KNHC 041431
TCDAT4
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT
4.0...CORRESPONDING TO A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KT. MARIA HAS
FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...PARTICULARLY IN
CHANNELS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THE HURRICANE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE WARM WATERS SO STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY UNTIL
WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR IN 48 HOURS OR SO. IN 4-5 DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT MARIA WILL BE TRANSFORMING INTO A VIGOROUS
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...340/11. MARIA IS
BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC.
A 500 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND APPROACH MARIA'S LONGITUDE WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE FORWARD SPEED AT 3-5 DAYS PREDICTED BY THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL
TRACK MODELS. SOME GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFS...SHOW MARIA OR ITS
EXTRATROPICAL VERSION BECOMING WELL EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD. OTHER MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE TROUGH COULD BYPASS THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
A COMPROMISE OF THESE POSSIBILITIES AND SHOWS NO ACCELERATION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST TRACK.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 28.8N 55.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 30.3N 56.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 32.3N 56.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 34.1N 56.1W 80 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 35.9N 54.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 39.0N 50.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 41.0N 45.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/1200Z 42.5N 40.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$

162
WTNT34 KNHC 042032
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2005

...MARIA STRENGTHENS...THREAT TO SHIPPING...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST OR ABOUT 530 MILES...
855 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...30.3 N... 56.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

000
WTNT44 KNHC 042031
TCDAT4
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005

AN EYE HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGES TODAY...AND DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS NOW SUPPORT 75-KT WINDS. SINCE THE HURRICANE HAS
WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW...A WELL-DEFINED INNER
CORE...AND IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
SEEMS LIKELY. BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND...MARIA IS LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN TO AT LEAST CATEGORY 2 STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
I HAVE BLENDED THE SHIPS AND GFDL OUTPUT AS GUIDANCE FOR THE WIND
SPEED FORECAST. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...SO WEAKENING IS
LIKELY TO BE UNDERWAY BY THEN. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
MARIA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND LOSING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF MARIA WILL BE RATHER LARGE AND VIGOROUS
FOR A WHILE.

THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 340/12...PERHAPS 13 KT IN THE
SHORTER TERM. THE GENERAL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE
SAME. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 70W WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED NEAR THE LONGITUDE OF MARIA IN ABOUT
48 HOURS. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN
NORTHWARD...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. IN SPITE OF THE FASTER INITIAL
MOTION...THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SLOWER THAN IN
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 30.3N 56.1W 75 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 31.7N 56.5W 85 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 33.3N 56.5W 90 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 34.7N 55.9W 90 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 35.8N 54.9W 80 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 38.5N 51.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 41.0N 46.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/1800Z 43.5N 40.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2005

...MARIA HEADING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... WILL PASS WELL EAST OF
BERMUDA BUT POSES A HAZARD FOR SHIPPING...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.9 WEST OR ABOUT 475
MILES... 760 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH... 20 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH... 140 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES... 185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...31.0 N... 56.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

TCDAT4
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MARIA HAS BEEN EVIDENT THIS
EVENING... AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE
T4.5/77 KT... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT. MARIA STILL
HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WHILE THE HURRICANE REMAINS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
WIND SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AS MARIA MOVES FARTHER NORTH SHOULD INCREASE
THE SHEAR AND BRING ON GRADUAL WEAKENING... UNTIL THE HURRICANE
REACHES COOLER WATERS AND LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/11... WHICH IS JUST A BIT TO THE
LEFT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN EARLIER TODAY. THIS ESTIMATE IS
BASED ON A COUPLE OF PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS... ON CONTINUITY... AND ON FOLLOWING THE CENTROID OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION IN GOES IR IMAGERY SINCE AN EYE HAS NOT BEEN
CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE SINCE JUST BEFORE SUNSET. IT ALSO SEEMS THAT
VERY RECENTLY MARIA HAS BEEN MOVING MORE SLOWLY... SO THE ADVISORY
POSITION COULD BE A FEW MILES TOO FAST. EVEN THOUGH IT MIGHT BE
STARTING A LITTLE SOONER THAN EXPECTED... A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SHOULD OCCUR AS MARIA GRADUALLY BENDS TO THE NORTH AROUND
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.
THEREAFTER... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE MARIA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED AFTER MARIA EMERGES OVER MUCH
COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
MARIA COULD REMAIN A FAIRLY VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 31.0N 56.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 32.4N 57.1W 80 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 33.9N 56.7W 85 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 35.4N 55.8W 80 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 36.7N 54.3W 75 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 39.0N 50.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 41.5N 45.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 10/0000Z 44.0N 38.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

000
WTNT34 KNHC 050842
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST MON SEP 05 2005

...MARIA SLOWLY STRENGTHENING WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST OR ABOUT 465 MILES...
745 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY...
WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THIS MOTION WILL
KEEP MARIA WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA AND ONLY POSE A THREAT TO
SHIPPING INTERESTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...31.3 N... 57.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT44 KNHC 050837
TCDAT4
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 05 2005

MARIA'S CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. THE EYE HAS ALSO BECOME MUCH MORE DISTINCT IN INFRARED
AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOTH TAFB AND SAB CAME IN WITH AN
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5/77KT...AND RAW ODT NUMBERS ARE NOW AS
HIGH AS T4.9/87 KT. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS BEING
CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/09. MARIA BRIEFLY SLOWED TO ABOUT
5 KT BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z...BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A FASTER
FORWARD SPEED OF 9 KT AS IT NEARS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MARIA
IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...
AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IN 24
HOURS. BY 48-72 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE MARIA RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OR
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER WATER WHERE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE DAY 4-5 TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STRETCHED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST...BUT AN
OUTFLOW CHANNEL EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ONE APPEARS TO BE
FORMING TO THE NORTH. THIS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. BY 36 HOURS...THOUGH
...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE STEADY
WEAKENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO OR MERGES WITH A LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 31.3N 57.0W 80 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 32.7N 57.0W 85 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 34.4N 56.2W 90 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 36.0N 54.8W 85 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 37.3N 52.9W 75 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 39.3N 49.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 41.5N 43.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 10/0600Z 44.5N 36.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$

000
WTNT34 KNHC 051429
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON SEP 05 2005

...MARIA'S WINDS NOW NEAR 100 MPH...NO THREAT TO LAND...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.7 WEST OR ABOUT 475
MILES... 765 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...31.8 N... 56.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

000
WTNT44 KNHC 051429
TCDAT4
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 05 2005

ALTHOUGH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE
STILL 4.5 AT 12Z...THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT SINCE THEN...
WITH A RATHER SYMMETRIC RING OF SURROUNDING COLD CLOUD TOPS.
RECENT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE NEAR 4.8...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 85 KT. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
EVIDENT...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. A LITTLE MORE
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR STARTS
TO INFLUENCE MARIA...WITHIN 1-2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN SHOWN
BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE PERIOD...AFTER MARIA MOVES
NORTH OF 40N LATITUDE...THE GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH A
BAROCLINIC ZONE. MARIA IS LIKELY TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ITS EXTRATROPICAL
REMNANT WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE FOR A WHILE.

MARIA HAS SLOWED WHILE TURNING TO THE NORTH...AND THE CURRENT MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 360/7. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
HURRICANE...AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MARIA
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PICK UP THE CYCLONE...THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH
ACCELERATION UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SLIGHTLY LEFT OT
THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 31.8N 56.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 33.0N 56.5W 90 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 34.4N 55.6W 90 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 35.8N 54.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 37.0N 52.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 39.0N 48.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 42.0N 41.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 10/1200Z 46.0N 33.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$

000
WTNT44 KNHC 052038
TCDAT4
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005

THE HURRICANE HAS INTENSIFIED A LITTLE MORE DURING THE DAY. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB NOW GIVE A WIND SPEED OF 90
KT. AN EXCELLENT TRMM OVERPASS FROM 1556Z SHOWED THAT A CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL STRUCTURE WAS DEVELOPING....SO THE STRENGTH WILL PROBABLY
FLUCTUATE UP OR DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND THAT
TIME...A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST...WHICH
IS LIKELY TO BRING ABOUT A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. BY 4 DAYS OR
SOONER...GLOBAL MODEL SIMULATIONS SHOW MARIA TRANSFORMING INTO A
LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM. THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED SOMEWHAT AT 4 AND 5 DAYS AND THIS IS PROBABLY A
CONSERVATIVE FORECAST.

MARIA IS MOVING NORTHWARD...360/8. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM EARLIER ADVISORIES. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES AND A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
TRACK FORECAST IN THIS ADVISORY IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE. IT IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 32.6N 56.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 33.6N 56.0W 90 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 34.9N 55.0W 90 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 36.3N 53.4W 85 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 37.4N 51.3W 75 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 40.0N 46.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 43.0N 39.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 10/1800Z 48.0N 33.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL