TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20050904 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050904 1800 050905 0600 050905 1800 050906 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 26.7N 66.5W 27.6N 66.5W 28.4N 66.6W 29.0N 67.0W

BAMM 26.7N 66.5W 27.8N 66.4W 28.9N 66.6W 29.3N 67.0W

A98E 26.7N 66.5W 27.4N 66.3W 28.3N 66.1W 28.8N 65.5W

LBAR 26.7N 66.5W 27.6N 66.3W 28.7N 66.1W 29.6N 66.0W

SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 48KTS

DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 48KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050906 1800 050907 1800 050908 1800 050909 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 29.3N 67.7W 29.6N 69.5W 31.3N 70.7W 34.7N 67.4W

BAMM 29.4N 67.6W 29.1N 69.8W 30.3N 72.0W 33.1N 71.8W

A98E 28.9N 65.3W 28.8N 65.1W 29.4N 65.7W 31.6N 65.2W

LBAR 30.2N 66.1W 31.0N 66.4W 32.9N 66.2W 35.0N 62.9W

SHIP 56KTS 67KTS 72KTS 70KTS

DSHP 56KTS 67KTS 72KTS 70KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 26.7N LONCUR = 66.5W DIRCUR = 10DEG SPDCUR = 4KT

LATM12 = 25.8N LONM12 = 66.7W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 4KT

LATM24 = 24.8N LONM24 = 67.5W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

This system has developed a LLC. In has shown convection trying to wrap. It should head northeastward over the next few days.

Discussion from Derek ortt.

The second feature that is being monitored this evening is a surface low-pressure center near 27N and 66W. Convection is mainly located to the south of the low-center, indicative of some northerly wind shear. The upper anti-cyclone discussed above, is expected to be better located for this feature, which should aid in its development. Models also indicate that there will be some development of this feature. Given the organization of the low-level circulation, any increase of deep convection will result in this system becoming a tropical depression, or a tropical storm. Steering currents are also expected to be weak with this feature and a slow northerly track is also expected here. Residents of Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
MARIA... LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA IS
DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS
CONCENTRATED BUT NOT YET WELL ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT... AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.



FORECASTER KNABB

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N67W OR ABOUT 300 NM SSW OF
BERMUDA MOVING N 5-10 KT. THIS LOW IS BENEATH THE E SIDE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90
NM OF LINE 24N65W-27N67.5W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER A BROADER AREA FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN
62W-70W.
:silly:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 052027
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005

...FIFTEENTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 350
MILES... 565 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY...BUT A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...27.8 N... 67.5 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER MOLLEDA/PASCH

000
WTNT45 KNHC 052027
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005

SATELLITE DATA DURING THE DAY INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS NOW ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO
BE STARTED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER WHICH HAS MEANDERED IN
A CYCLONIC LOOP FOR MOST OF THE DAY. BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO
BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED. THE SYSTEM LIES NEAR A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE DEPRESSION TO THE
BAHAMAS...WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SLOW STRENGTHENING OF THE
CYCLONE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR. BEYOND THIS
TIME...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GET CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN U.S.
COAST. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE SHEAR AND PUT AN END TO THE
INTENSIFICATION. SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THIS TREND...PEAKING
THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO SHIPS THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN CONSERVATIVELY PEAKING AT 50
KT AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN
INDICATED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS UNDER THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DEPRESSION HAS MEANDERED IN A CYCLONIC LOOP
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AFTER A SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION LAST NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THIS CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM MOTION...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOVERS NEAR THE
SYSTEM. BEYOND 72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND START TURNING THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
QUITE SCATTERED AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A SYSTEM UNDER WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS...WITH THE GFS AND U.K. MET OFFICE MODELS MOVING
THE CYCLONE VERY LITTLE FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE NOGAPS MODEL MOVES THE SYSTEM FASTER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH 72 HOURS BEFORE RECURVATURE. THE GFDL MODEL IS
SIMILAR...BUT SLOWER...TO THE NOGAPS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE
TO THAT OF THE GFDL...EXCEPT SOMEWHAT SLOWER DUE TO THE INITIAL
STATIONARY MOTION.

FORECASTER MOLLEDA/PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 27.8N 67.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 27.8N 67.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 27.9N 68.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 28.0N 69.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 28.3N 70.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 29.5N 72.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 31.0N 72.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 32.0N 70.5W 50 KT

Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 2


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 05, 2005



...14th tropical storm of the 2005 Atlantic season forms...
...Located south of Bermuda and moving very slowly...
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located
near latitude 28.0 north... longitude 66.8 west or about 320
miles... 515 km... south-southwest of Bermuda.

Nate is moving toward the west near 2 mph... 4 km/hr. A continued
slow westward motion is expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
... 75 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...28.0 N... 66.8 W. Movement
toward...west near 2 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am EDT.

Forecaster Knabb

000
WTNT45 KNHC 060317
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005

CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY
ROBUST AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE COOLED TO NEAR -80C. THE 00Z DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUPPORT 30-35 KT... AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE
IMPRESSIVE SINCE THEN... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
35 KT... WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A VERY RECENT BUOY REPORT OF 30
KT TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER AND OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION. WHILE
THE GFDL DOES NOT EVEN FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO EVER REACH TROPICAL
STORM STATUS... WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY UNDERDONE... THE SHIPS MODEL
FORECASTS STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE BY ABOUT 60 HOURS. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT BE QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE... BUT GIVEN
THE RECENT STRENGTHENING TREND... IT IS ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS SHOWS NATE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

NATE HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... AND
THE CENTER IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE SMALL LOW LEVEL
CENTER SEEN EARLIER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY APPEARS TO HAVE ROTATED
EASTWARD INTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WHICH IS CENTERED
FARTHER EAST. AN SSMI OVERPASS NEAR 23Z ALSO SUGGESTED THIS LARGER
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED FARTHER EAST... AND RECENT SHORTWAVE IR
IMAGERY HINTS AT A VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS ALL OVER THE PLACE... WITH NOGAPS SHOWING CONTINUED WESTWARD
MOTION... AS DOES GFDL BUT NOT UNTIL SOME MEANDERING IS COMPLETED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ALL WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
LEFT BEHIND BY THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH PUSHING MARIA FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. WHILE A WEAK RIDGE SHOULD INDUCE SLOW WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS... THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY MOST MODELS TO THEN BREAK
DOWN AND FORCE NATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL SCENARIO AND IS AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. IT IS SAFE TO SAY THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 28.0N 66.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 28.1N 67.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 28.3N 67.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 28.6N 68.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 29.1N 69.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 30.5N 70.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 31.5N 70.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 32.5N 67.5W 60 KT

000
WTNT35 KNHC 060829
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...NATE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MEANDERS SOUTH OF BERMUDA...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST OR ABOUT 275
MILES... 445 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MEANDERING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR.
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE A SLOW
WESTWARD DRIFT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...28.6 N... 66.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 3


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 06, 2005



a plethora of satellite microwave data over the past 12 hours
indicates Nate had been moving slowly eastward before stalling
during the past few hours. The center is underneath the northwest
portion of the convective cloud mass...due to some northerly
mid-level flow undercutting the favorable upper-level outflow
layer. The initial intensity of 40 kt is based on a blend of
satellite intensity estimates of 45 kt from TAFB and 35 kt from
SAB...and the improved convective banding features noted in the
microwave data.

The initial motion estimate is 275/02...but the cyclone could easily
be quasi-stationary. Nate is trapped in a weak steering flow
pattern between Hurricane Maria to the northeast and a developing
disturbance over the northwest Bahamas. Moderate northerly
mid-level flow on the east side of a subtropical ridge located
between Bermuda and the southeastern U.S. Is forecast to gradually
weaken as it slides slowly eastward over the next couple of days.
This should gradually induce a westward motion until a shortwave
trough moves off the southeastern U.S. And completely erodes the
ridge and lifts out Nate fairly quickly to the northeast. All of
the global models and the GFDL model are in good agreement on this
developing steering pattern. As a result...the forecast track had
to be shifted more to the right and much faster than the previous
two advisories were indicating. The cause for the faster motion is
likely due to the models now initializing and maintaining a more
vertically deep and stronger system than in previous models runs.
This faster motion now places Bermuda under the threat of possible
tropical storm-force or hurricane-force winds in about 72 hours.

Nate is forecast to remain in a very low shear environment and over
SSTs of 29c for the next 36 hours. With such a tight low-level
inner core wind field...these conditions would usually favor rapid
intensification to occur. However...the northerly mid-level flow
undercutting the favorable outflow layer may result in some shear
conditions and occasional intrusions of dry air for the next 24
hours. As a result...only modest strengthening at a typical rate of
20 kt per 24 hours is forecast through 36 hours. Afterwards...
increasing west to west-southwesterly upper-level shear ahead of an
approaching deep-layer trough should cap the intensification
process and induce a slow weakening trend.
Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 06/0900z 28.6n 66.6w 40 kt
12hr VT 06/1800z 28.7n 67.0w 50 kt
24hr VT 07/0600z 29.0n 67.4w 60 kt
36hr VT 07/1800z 29.4n 68.0w 70 kt
48hr VT 08/0600z 30.3n 68.3w 70 kt
72hr VT 09/0600z 32.0n 66.8w 65 kt
96hr VT 10/0600z 34.0n 62.0w 60 kt
120hr VT 11/0600z 38.5n 52.0w 55 kt
$$

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...NATE A LITTLE STRONGER...MOVING LITTLE...
...INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST OR ABOUT 275
MILES... 440 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH... 95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...28.7 N... 66.7 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
NATE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL
QUADRANTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF
THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SO NATE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL
TRENDS.

NATE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SO LITTLE MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...NATE SHOULD
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A HIGH DEVELOPS EAST OF NATE. BEYOND 48
HOURS...NATE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST OR
WEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID LATITUDE TROUGH. NATE SHOULD
THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND
SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.

IT APPEARS THAT BERMUDA WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST PATH OF NATE.
THEREFORE...ALL INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 28.7N 66.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 28.8N 66.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 29.0N 67.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 29.5N 67.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 30.5N 67.5W 80 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 32.5N 64.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 37.0N 53.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 42.5N 41.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...NATE NEARLY STATIONARY...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST OR ABOUT 275
MILES... 440 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS STATIONARY. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...28.7 N... 66.7 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE PASSES FROM THIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF
THE MID-LEVEL CENTER DETERMINED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY...VISIBLE
IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO GIVE THE IMPRESSION OF A
WELL-ORGANIZED CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 50 KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED
DIRECTLY OVER NATE...AND THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON WHY THE SYSTEM
SHOULD NOT INTENSIFY BEFORE THE WIND SHEAR INCREASES IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BLENDS THE SHIPS AND GFDL
GUIDANCE.

NATE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...CAUGHT BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS OF MARIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND DEPRESSION SIXTEEN TO
THE WEST...AND UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY LITTLE MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN SUGGESTING THAT THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL COLLAPSE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS AS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NORTH AMERICAN
CONTINENT. THIS TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NATE
NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE RELATIVELY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
DYNAMICAL MODELS.

THERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING VIRTUALLY NO WESTWARD MOTION
BEFORE RECURVATURE WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL TAKE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE TURNING. THIS LATTER SCENARIO TAKES THE
CYCLONE CLOSER TO BERMUDA. NATE IS EXPECTED TO PASS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
BERMUDA AS A HURRICANE...BUT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL AT THIS POINT
WHETHER IT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. A
HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 28.7N 66.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 28.8N 67.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 29.2N 67.4W 70 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 29.7N 67.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 31.0N 66.5W 80 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 33.5N 61.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 37.0N 52.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 43.0N 38.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...NATE STRENGTHENING...MEANDERING SOUTH OF BERMUDA...

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES... 415 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS STATIONARY. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
...150 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...28.8 N... 66.3 W. MOVEMENT
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 6


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 06, 2005



an earlier SSMI overpass indicated that the circulation center was
situated about 28 nm farther east than previously thought. The
imagery also suggested that a banding eye feature may be
developing. Dvorak intensity estimates from AFWA and SAB have
increased to 55 kt...while the TAFB estimate came in at 65 kt.
Based on the increase of the satellite estimates and the improved
inner core depicted in the microwave image...the initial intensity
is adjusted to 55 kt. The official intensity forecast philosophy
is similar to the previous package and blends the SHIPS and GFDL
guidance.

Nate is nearly stationary. The mid-level circulations of Maria and
depression sixteen appear to be influencing Nate's lack of motion.
The mid-level ridge extending eastward from New England does not
appear to affecting the steering flow to the north of Nate. This
pattern should hold over the next 24 hours resulting in relatively
little motion...possibly a slight north-northwestward drift.
Global models agree with the ridge to the northwest weakening over
the next few days in response to a strong mid-latitude trough
moving off the northeastern Seaboard. The aforementioned trough is
then expected to accelerate Nate northeastward. The official
forecast is slightly to the right of the previous advisory and is
based off the CONU consensus.

Nate is expected to pass fairly close to Bermuda as a
hurricane...whether it will pass to the north or south of the
island remains to be seen. A Hurricane Watch will likely be
required Wednesday morning.

Forecaster Roberts/Beven


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 07/0300z 28.8n 66.3w 55 kt
12hr VT 07/1200z 29.0n 66.5w 65 kt
24hr VT 08/0000z 29.6n 66.7w 70 kt
36hr VT 08/1200z 30.5n 66.0w 80 kt
48hr VT 09/0000z 31.8n 64.0w 80 kt
72hr VT 10/0000z 35.0n 57.0w 75 kt
96hr VT 11/0000z 38.5n 46.5w 55 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 12/0000z 44.0n 33.0w 45 kt...extratropical

000
WTNT35 KNHC 070838
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES... 420 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR LATER TODAY AND ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...NATE IS
FORECAST TO PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
...150 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...28.8 N... 66.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

000
WTNT45 KNHC 070916
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE DATA INDICATE NATE HAS MOVED LITTLE
...BUT MAY BE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF A SLOW NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWARD DRIFT. A PARTIAL EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN INFRARED
IMAGERY...SO THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION GUESSTIMATE IS 315/02...BUT NATE COULD BE
QUASI-STATIONARY OR DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF NATE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITHIN 24 HOURS BY ALL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN MOVING
NORTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD BY 36 HOURS AS
SRONMG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS A LITTLE NORTH...OR LEFT...OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE
UKMET'S STRONG FAST AND RIGHT BIAS FROM THE OUTSET. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS.

SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER GIVEN THAT
AN EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO FORM AND THAT NATE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF
35-45 KT SHOULD INDUCE STEADY AND POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID WEAKENING.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 28.8N 66.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 29.2N 66.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 30.1N 66.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 31.6N 64.7W 80 KT...NEAR BERMUDA
48HR VT 09/0600Z 33.0N 61.5W 80 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 36.1N 53.0W 75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 11/0600Z 39.5N 42.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/0600Z 44.0N 29.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$

Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 7a


Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on September 07, 2005


...Nate near hurricane strength...
A tropical storm watch is in effect for Bermuda.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located
near latitude 28.8 north... longitude 66.3 west or about 260
miles... 415 km... south-southwest of Bermuda.

Nate has been meandering and is nearly stationary. A slow northward
or northeastward motion is expected over the next 24 hours. On the
forecast track...Nate is forecast to pass near or just south of
Bermuda tonight or Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and
Nate could become a hurricane later today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
...150 km from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches.

Repeating the 8 am EDT position...28.8 N... 66.3 W. Movement...
nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 70 mph. Minimum
central pressure... 990 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am EDT.

Forecaster Pasch

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...NATE NOW A HURRICANE...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES...
370 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH ... 6 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
BERMUDA TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...29.2 N... 66.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$
NNNN

000
WTNT45 KNHC 071457
TCDAT5
HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RAGGED EYE THIS
MORNING...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AVERAGE ABOUT 70 KT.
THEREFORE...NATE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE IN THIS ADVISORY. THE
SYSTEM HAS FAIRLY WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...AND SOME
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEFORE VERTICAL SHEAR
BECOMES PROHIBITIVELY STRONG. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS
ABOVE THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE BASED ON
QUIKSCAT DATA.

INITIAL MOTION IS NOT DEFINITIVE...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD AID IN
TURNING NATE TO THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BASED ON
THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOWEVER...
THIS IS NEAR THE LEFT EDGE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...NATE COULD STILL MOVE VERY NEAR
OVER BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THAT ISLAND.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 29.2N 66.2W 70 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 29.5N 66.1W 75 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 30.4N 65.2W 80 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 31.6N 63.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 33.1N 59.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 36.0N 50.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 11/1200Z 39.0N 40.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/1200Z 43.0N 29.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...NATE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN SLOWLY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES...
345 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...AND A SLOW NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
BERMUDA TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...29.94 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...29.4 N... 66.0 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KT BASED ON THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...WITH ODT ESTIMATES SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
REACH THE HURRICANE AROUND 6Z TONIGHT. NATE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A
RAGGED CLOUD-FILLED EYE UNDERNEATH A WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A BAND OF STRONG
WESTERLIES IS APPROACHING NATE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THIS FLOW MAY
BEGIN TO RESTRICT AND/OR UNDERCUT THE OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SHEAR
BEGINS TO INCREASE. THE GFS FORECASTS THAT NATE WILL BECOME
ABSORBED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA WITHIN ABOUT 72
HOURS...BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE HURRICANE IS WOBBLING AT 035/4. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR TRACK. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS WEAKENING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY
AND HELP TO ESTABLISH A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THAT
SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST KEEPS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE
SOUTH OF BERMUDA...HOWEVER...SHOULD NATE MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH
THAN EXPECTED...A SHORT-FUSED HURRICANE WARNING MIGHT BE REQUIRED
OVERNIGHT.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 29.5N 65.8W 75 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 30.1N 65.3W 80 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 31.2N 63.7W 80 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 32.5N 61.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 34.2N 57.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 37.0N 47.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 11/1800Z 41.0N 36.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/1800Z 45.0N 24.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...NATE MAINTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
NEAR BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...
315 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR. A SLOW
MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. NATE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO
BERMUDA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES IN BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...29.6 N... 65.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

000
WTNT35 KNHC 080236
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...HURRICANE NATE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...PASSING SOUTH OF BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
285 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH ... 9 KM/HR. A SLOW
MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. NATE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO
BERMUDA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES IN BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...29.8 N... 65.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

000
WTNT45 KNHC 080241
TCDAT5
HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A 20 NM...RAGGED EYE WHICH
APPEARS TO BE OPEN ON THE EAST SIDE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
DRY AIR IS BEING PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTH. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AS DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
REACH THE HURRICANE AROUND 6Z TONIGHT. A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION EXISTS BEFORE THE UPPER WESTERLIES
MOVE OVER THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST.

INITIAL MOTION IS 040/5. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PRESENTLY
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
MID-LATITUDE FEATURE SHOULD HELP TO ESTABLISH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NATE NORTHEASTWARD AND
THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE LATEST GFS RUN SUGGESTS THAT NATE WILL
BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA WITHIN ABOUT 60
HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET INDICATES BINARY INTERACTION WITH MARIA
NEAR DAY 4...ULTIMATELY MERGING INTO A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL
SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST KEEPS
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA...HOWEVER...SHOULD
NATE MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH THAN EXPECTED...A SHORT-FUSED HURRICANE
WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.


FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 29.8N 65.4W 75 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 30.6N 64.5W 80 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 31.9N 62.2W 75 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 33.4N 58.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 35.1N 54.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 38.0N 43.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/0000Z 42.0N 32.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/0000Z 46.0N 21.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

11 P.M. ADT 9/7/2005 HURRICANE NATE UPDATE #10

This is an independent product

Nate is expected to move very clsoe to Bermuda early tomorrow morning. All storm preparations need to be completed by sunrise tomorrow as conditions will start to deteriorate then.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for Bermuda. As always, this is only a recommendation. The official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the center of Hurricane Nate is located near 29.8N and 65.4W. This places the center about 185 miles SSW of Bermuda. Nate is drifting towards the NE at nearly 6 m.p.h. This track, with an acceleration is expected during the next 24 hours, keeping Nate just south of Bermuda; however, any deviation to the nroth will bring hurricane conditions to the islands.

Maximum winds are near 90 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 977mb. Some further intensification is expected and Nate is expected to become a category 2 hurricane tomorrow.

Next Update: 5 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...HURRICANE NATE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...PASSING SOUTH OF BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...
275 KM... SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH ... 13 KM/HR.
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED... IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NATE IS
CURRENTLY MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA LATER THIS
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES IN BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...29.8 N... 64.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT35 KNHC 080847
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...HURRICANE NATE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF BERMUDA...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. THE WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.6 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES...
235 KM... SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NATE IS
CURRENTLY MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA...AND WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLAND LATER TODAY DAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM. A WIND GUST TO 43 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED
ON BERMUDA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES IN BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...30.2 N... 64.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT45 KNHC 080854
TCDAT5
HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING NATE
THIS MORNING FOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 85 KT IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH CONFIRMS THE 75-KT SATELLITE-BASED
INTENSITY USED IN THE PREVIOUS TWO ADVISORIES...AND THAT IS THE
INTENSITY USED IN THIS ADVISORY. THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED
IN SATELLITE APPEARNCE...WHICH IS CORROBORATED BY THE FLIGHT CREW .

INITIAL MOTION IS 050/8. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. NATE HAS FINALLY ROUNDED THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OR
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

NATE'S INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...COOLER WATER AND STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID WEAKENING AND
TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE
AZORES.


FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 30.2N 64.6W 75 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 31.2N 63.1W 75 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 32.9N 60.1W 75 KT
36HR VT 09/1800Z 34.5N 55.9W 75 KT
48HR VT 10/0600Z 36.0N 50.6W 70 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 40.0N 38.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/0600Z 44.0N 28.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/0600Z 48.1N 18.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...BERMUDA ESCAPES FROM THE CORE OF HURRICANE NATE...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. THE WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NATE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM BERMUDA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES IN BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...30.5 N... 64.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

NATE CONTINUES TO HAVE A RAGGED EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THERE IS ALSO A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO
THE EAST. THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH AND
IT IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT NATE SHOULD
BEGIN TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS
IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND HIGHER SHEAR.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THAT NATE WILL CONTINUE
WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 30.9N 63.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 32.0N 61.0W 75 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 33.5N 57.0W 75 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 35.0N 52.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 36.5N 47.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 39.5N 36.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/1200Z 44.0N 26.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1200Z 50.0N 17.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...NATE CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. THE WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ASSOCIATED WITH NATE
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...31.4 N... 62.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT45 KNHC 082028
TCDAT5
HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

THE EYE HAS BEEN INTTERMMITTENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND
THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERAFTER...NATE SHOULD BEGIN
TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS IT
MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND HIGHER SHEAR AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED
BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

NATE HAS BEEN ACCELERATINGLY AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ABOUT 14 KNOTS....WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LATITUDE FLOW. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THAT NATE WILL CONTINUE WITH
THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 31.8N 62.0W 75 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 33.0N 60.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 35.0N 55.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 36.0N 51.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 37.0N 46.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 41.0N 35.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW

000
WTNT35 KNHC 082029
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...NATE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...
270 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS A HURRICANE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...31.8 N... 62.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...NATE MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND ACCELERATING INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES...
440 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH
...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL ACCELERATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...33.0 N... 60.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT NATE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A
WELL-ORGANIZED AND IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS. IN FACT...THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T5.0...OR 90 KT...FROM TAFB IMPLIES SOME STRENGTHENING. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 4.5...OR 77 KT...FROM SAB AND AFWA.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES. MORE RECENTLY...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BEGUN TO SHOW THE TELL-TALE SIGNS OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMING RESTRICTED TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...A
RECENT SSMI PASS SHOWED VERY DRY AIR JUST NORTH OF NATE. IN LIGHT
OF THIS...NATE IS LIKELY PEAKING AND SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. NATE SHOULD ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH
LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THEREAFTER. LACKING SIGNIFICANT
BAROCLINIC SUPPORT...NATE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AFTER
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE.

NATE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OR 060/18. NATE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK QUICKLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. ONCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY...
NATE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 33.0N 60.2W 80 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 34.3N 57.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 35.3N 52.6W 70 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 36.2N 47.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 37.3N 43.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 44.0N 32.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

...NATE WEAKENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES...
640 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH
...35 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAKING NATE A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...33.6 N... 58.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY COMING OUT OF THE ECLIPSE SHOWS THAT THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NATE HAS RAPIDLY DEGENERATED.
WHILE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 5.0 AND 4.5 FROM
TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...THESE NUMBERS ARE BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.
GIVEN THE RAPID DECAY OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...THE LATEST
UW-CIMSS RAW AODT VALUE OF 4.3 IS USED FOR THE BASIS OF THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 70 KT. NATE NOW APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND PERHAPS SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION
WHICH HAS PROVIDED A ONE-TWO PUNCH. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE SO FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST NOW WEAKENS NATE MORE QUICKLY THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND BRINGS NATE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...NATE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL A
LITTLE QUICKER. LACKING SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC SUPPORT...NATE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE.

NATE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OR 065/19. NATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT 2 DAYS. ONCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY...
NATE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 33.6N 58.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 34.3N 55.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 35.1N 50.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 36.1N 44.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 37.3N 40.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 45.1N 30.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED