SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED TODAY... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
NEARLY STATIONARY SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

this one has me very concerned


5:30pm TWO excerpt:

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED TODAY... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
NEARLY STATIONARY SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

Discussion from Derek ortt.

The first disturbance is located near the NW Bahamas. A weak surface low may be forming at the present time; however, the convective activity, while increasing, is not focused around the developing low-center. Therefore, there should not be any rapid intensification during the next 12-24 hours. However, it is located in an area of good low-level convergence, which should aid in the development of further deep convection. In addition, models generally indicate that an upper high should form, though be centered to the east of this feature. Most models indicate development, and all 3 RSMAS MM5 simulations from 0Z indicated significant development of this feature. Some development is likely during the next couple of days. Steering currents are expected to remain weak and a very slow northerly drift can be expected during the next couple of days. Residents of the U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of this feature.

I'll watch this one off my coast line,, I think I would rather see a storm
develop right off the Eastern side than look at one from far out in the Atlantic..

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20050905 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050905 0600 050905 1800 050906 0600 050906 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.6N 78.7W 26.3N 79.9W 27.4N 81.3W 28.6N 83.0W
BAMM 25.6N 78.7W 26.1N 79.8W 26.7N 81.1W 27.4N 82.6W
A98E 25.6N 78.7W 25.7N 79.1W 26.2N 79.9W 27.0N 81.2W
LBAR 25.6N 78.7W 26.0N 79.0W 27.1N 79.3W 28.4N 79.5W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050907 0600 050908 0600 050909 0600 050910 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.6N 84.4W 30.3N 86.2W 30.0N 87.9W 30.1N 90.1W
BAMM 28.1N 84.0W 28.8N 85.8W 28.6N 87.4W 28.6N 89.5W
A98E 27.2N 82.2W 26.7N 83.2W 25.9N 83.6W 25.4N 84.4W
LBAR 29.4N 79.7W 30.3N 77.9W 31.4N 76.1W 33.4N 72.3W
SHIP 47KTS 58KTS 66KTS 70KTS
DSHP 36KTS 47KTS 55KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.6N LONCUR = 78.7W DIRCUR = 245DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 25.7N LONM12 = 78.3W DIRM12 = 211DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 26.0N LONM24 = 78.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS AREA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW..IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 26N79W DRIFTING TO THE
NW. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOT THAT WELL-DEFINED IN MIAMI
RADAR IMAGERY BUT THE OVERALL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE BECOMING
A LITTLE STRONGER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION IS
BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONSOLIDATED ESPECIALLY N OF THE CENTER
AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 25 KT AT FREEPORT AND SETTLEMENT
POINT BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-28N
BETWEEN 74W-80W INCLUDING OVER GREAT ABACO...GRAND BAHAMA...
ANDROS...AND NEW PROVIDENCE ISLANDS AND MOVING WWD TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA COAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NW BENEATH AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND BE NEAR OR OVER FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 36 HRS IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 060916
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
MARIA... LOCATED ABOUT 495 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA... AND ON TROPICAL
STORM NATE... LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA...ALONG WITH NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...
INDICATE A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN
THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO
TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT ISLAND...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE
BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA
THE ABACOS...AND BIMINI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT
10 MILES... 20 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT
180 MILES... 290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD
BEGIN LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...26.5 N... 78.6 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH
CIRCULATION AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO SOME SHEAR. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SYSTEM...REDUCING
THE SHEAR...AND THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM
WATERS FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT.

THE DEPRESSION IS IN FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
UNCERTAIN BUT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK SO LITTLE MOTION
IS ANTICIPATED BUT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST VERY CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.
BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND
BE NEAR THE EAST COST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE
EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 26.5N 78.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 27.0N 79.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 27.6N 79.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 28.0N 79.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 28.5N 80.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 29.0N 80.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 29.5N 81.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 82.0W 40 KT...INLAND

ZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT
ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA THE ABACOS...AND BIMINI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST VERY NEAR
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD
BEGIN LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
DEPRESSION.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...26.5 N... 78.6 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

ZC
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING
MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 35 KM...NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
AND ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...26.7 N... 78.5 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT41 KNHC 062032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS AS INDICATED BY T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH HAVE
REMAINED AT 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. DATA FROM A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOW THAT PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1008 MB AND THERE
IS A WELL-DEFINED BUT BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. MOST OF THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS NORTH OF THE CENTER DUE
TO A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE CYCLONE...AND BECAUSE THE OCEAN IS WARM ALONG THE FORECAST PATH
A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AND THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT. I AM A
LITTLE BIT UNCOMFORTABLE BRINGING THE INTENSITY UP FARTHER WHEN THE
GFDL DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. STEERING
CURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK AND ONLY A SMALL NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS
ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE. BEYOND 3 DAYS...THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE
WILL BYPASS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND WILL NOT PICK IT
UP...WHILE THE UK MODEL SHOWS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TAKING THE
CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN GENERAL...SOME MODELS SHOW
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OTHERS SHOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CYCLONE
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA
SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 26.7N 78.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 27.2N 78.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 27.7N 79.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 28.1N 79.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 28.7N 80.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 29.5N 81.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 30.0N 81.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 30.5N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND


$$

000
WTNT31 KNHC 062342
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING
MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST
OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD...WITH A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. SOME ERRATIC MOTION
MAY OCCUR AS THE DEPRESSION ORGANIZES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. NOAA BUOY 41010
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 26 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...27.0 N... 78.4 W. MOVEMENT
...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical depression 16
Forecast 1#

This system has become better organized. You can see how the LLC has slowly become better defined over the last few hours. Theres a buoy to the south then theres another to the northwest which shows the LLC becoming tighter. The convection/MLC is slowly becoming inlined with the LLC.

One of the main reasons why the most of the convection was to the north was because of shear. It appears that that shear is going down. I expect a slow increase in overall organizion over the next 12 to 24 hours. You can see how the outflow/banding is becoming much better over the northwest quads. In which is very promising for development.

After 24 hours I expect a faster development from this system. The two factors on track is that trough which is moving Nate/Maria to the northeast. In which this system is right on the point of taking the same like track or having a high pressure building over it. Kind of like Katrina.

1# A northwest or northward track...
2# The system gets under the high. In which the nhc/models almost always think the high pressure is weaker then it is. In which the system gets back into the gulf.

I expect this to become a 65 to 70 mph tropcal storm. But if it where to go more north a hurricane is not out of the quastion.

Foracaster Matthew

this has trouble written all over it

Maybe rainstorm. The t numbers out of Sab/airforce shows it at 2.5/2.5. In which this needs to be upgraded to a tropical storm. So 15 named storms. 8 more to go for the record.

The LLC has become inline with the convection. In which is shown by the buoys. This is likely a tropical storm.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT DRIFTS
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING
MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ON EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES... 105 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND AND ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH
... 6 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT STRONG WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST ARE CURRENTLY DUE MORE TO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THAN TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SISTEEN.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...27.4 N... 78.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

DATA FROM THE WSR-88D AT MELBOURNE SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN HAS A CIRCULATION CENTER ELONGATED WEST-SOUTHWEST TO
EAST-NORTHEAST. THE EARLIER NOAA AIRCRAFT FLIGHT FOUND MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 27 KT MORE THAN 60 N MI AWAY FROM THE BROAD
CENTER. BASED ON A 27 KT WIND FROM BUOY 41010 AND SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DURING THE LAST 30 MIN OR SO...THE
MELBOURNE RADAR HINTS THAT A BETTER DEFINED INNER CORE MAY BE
FORMING. THE NEXT NOAA AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN THE CYCLONE AT
ABOUT 06Z TO SEE IF THAT IS THE CASE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 330/3...WITH THE RADAR DATA
HINTING AT A FASTER FORWARD MOTION. TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN THERE IS SERIOUS
DIVERGENCE. THE GFDL...GFDN...ECMWF...AND BAMS TURN THE CYCLONE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND BAMD TURN IT NORTHWARD AND
EVEN NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH THE CYCLONE
BETWEEN TWO SEGMENTS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS A STRONG
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE DIFFERENT
TRACKS RESULT MAINLY FROM WHICH SEGMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE
STRONGER...AND IT IS NOT APPARENT AT THIS TIME WHICH CLUSTER OF
GUIDANCE WILL BE CORRECT. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES AND CALL FOR A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TRACK
FORECAST.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPERIENCING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR WHICH IS
PROBABLY SLOWING DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHEAR WILL LIKELY LET UP IN
12-24 HR AND ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL
STORM. THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE BAMS AND BAMD
SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN 48-72 HR...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT AT THAT
TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS
MODEL AND FAR ABOVE THE GFDL FORECAST. THE GFS AND UKMET SUGGEST
THAT THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO FEED COOLER
AIR INTO THE CYCLONE...AND SHOULD THAT HAPPEN IT COULD THROW A
MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 27.4N 78.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 27.7N 78.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 28.1N 79.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 28.5N 79.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 28.8N 80.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 11/0000Z 30.5N 81.5W 50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 12/0000Z 30.5N 82.5W 30 KT...INLAND

Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 3a


Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on September 07, 2005



...Tropical Storm Ophelia strengthens as it moves slowly northward
off the Florida East Coast...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of
Florida from north of Jupiter northward to Titusville including
Merritt Island...and for Grand Bahama...the Abacos and Bimini. The
warning for the Bahamas will likely be discontinued later this
morning.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Florida East Coast north
of Titusville to Flagler Beach.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within the next 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in northern and central Florida....and the
southeastern United States coast should monitor the progress of
this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 2 am EDT...0600z...data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft and
NOAA land-based Doppler radars indicate the center of Tropical
Storm Ophelia was located near latitude 27.9 north...longitude
78.8 west or about 115 miles...185 km... east-southeast of Cape
Canaveral Florida and about 100 miles... 160 km... north of Freeport
Grand Bahama Island.

Ophelia is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph...7 km/hr.
A generally northwestward drift is expected during the next 24
hours.

Data from reconnaissance aircraft...NOAA land-based Doppler radars
...And nearby buoys indicate maximum sustained winds are near 40
mph... 65 km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours. During the past hour...a
drifting buoy just northeast of the center reported a sustained
wind of 38 mph...and NOAA buoy 41010 well north of the center
reported a sustained wind of 33 mph. It should be noted that strong
winds near gale force just off the southeastern United States coast
are currently due more to strong high pressure over the eastern
United States than to Tropical Storm Ophelia.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft was 1003 mb...29.62 inches.

Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated higher
amounts of 15 inches can be expected in portions of Florida and the
northwestern Bahamas.

Repeating the 2 am EDT position...27.9 N... 78.8 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 5 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Stewart

:silly:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 070852
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...OPHELIA MOVING PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR FLORIDA...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER
BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. ALSO...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS.

AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 78.9
WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES... 165 KM... EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS
...AND NEARBY BUOYS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40
MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...28.3 N... 78.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

000
WTNT41 KNHC 070908
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

DATA FROM NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS AND A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATE OPHELIA HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED...
BUT IT STILL REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY OF
35 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SURFACE REPORTS OF 33 KT FROM DRIFTING
BUOY 41542...LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND DOPPLER
RADAR VELOCITIES OF 36-44 KT BETWEEN 10000 FT AND 12000 FT. THE
HIGHEST RECON WIND REPORT HAS BEEN 42 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/07...BASED ON THE LAST 3 RECON POSITIONS.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS ANYTHING BUT STRAIGHTFORWARD. THE MAJORITY OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS TAKE OPHELIA SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HOURS
AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD...AND
MAKE A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP EAST OF FLORIDA BY DAY 5. ONLY THE
GFDL...SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAM...AND ECMWF MODELS TAKE OPHELIA
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. HOWEVER...THEY DO SO ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AND ALSO AS A VERY
WEAK SYSTEM. GIVEN THAT OPHELIA IS ALREADY WELL EAST OF THOSE MODEL
FORECASTS...AND THAT 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN RISING MORE QUICKLY
ALONG THE GULF COAST RATHER THAN FARTHER NORTH...SUGGESTS THAT THE
GFDL AND ECMWF MOELS ARE BUILDING TOO MUCH RIDGING TOO THE NORTH OF
OPHELIA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD AND ERODE THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND PUSH OPHELIA EASTWARD
AWAY FROM FLORIDA BY 36-48 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
BUT SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LONGER TIME PERIODS...POSSIBLE LANDFALL ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA OR
GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.

OPHELIAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...SO ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
UNDERNEATH A NARROW 200 MB RIDGE AXIZ WHILE REMAINING OVER 29C
SSTS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 28.3N 78.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 28.5N 79.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 28.8N 79.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 29.0N 80.1W 50 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 29.4N 80.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 29.8N 80.3W 60 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 30.1N 80.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 12/0600Z 30.0N 79.5W 70 KT

$$

Tropical storm Ophelia
Forecast 2#

The LLC has moved under the convection this morning. On radar shows that a defined central core has developed. It appears to be a slowly organizing...I expect southly shear levels to fall. Which will allow the mid level convection/flow to wrap around the system. The system is shown on buoy's and radar to have moved north-northwestward at around 6 to 8 mph. A high pressure area forecasted to build to the systems north. In which should slow its forward speed to drift intill around Sunday. In which models show the high to its north breaking down slightly. Which allows it to move eastward or northeastward. The hurricane models like the Lbar show it picking up spped as it moves it out to sea. The Bamm/Gfdl show a stronger area of high presssure. In which turns this system to the west with in the next 12 hours. Also the Ecmwf shown that...

The Gfs 00z shows it doing a loop. As the high rebuilds around Monday afternoon. In which around what the nhc says...

As this high builds in it would become quite favable. But also on the other hand if the system speeds off to northeast it could become favable to. In which it would be out running any effects of the unfavable enviroment.

My forecast is for this system to keep moving northwest over the next 24 to 36 hours. Then a turn to to the north around Friday afternoon. Expect a eastward shift then after...This forecast is slightly to the left of the nhc forecast. In which I bring it to nearly 32 north...


As for how strong expect it to become a hurricane Sunday...


Forecaster Matthew

000
WTNT31 KNHC 071144
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...OPHELIA A LITTLE STRONGER...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST OR ABOUT
80 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES MAINLY TO
THENORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...28.5 N... 79.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...OPHELIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...EXPECTED TO MEANDER JUST OFF
THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT
85 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. THIS GENERAL SLOW
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...28.8 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS DEEP CONVECTION BUT STILL NORTH
OF THE CENTER...WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS AND FAIR OUTFLOW.
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND BASED
ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45
KNOTS. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK OPHELIA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS AND A LOW-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...SO STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. SINCE THE GFS BRINGS
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER OPHELIA BY THE END OR THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LEVELED OFF BETWEEN 65
AND 70 KNOTS. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.

OPHELIA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND IT
APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 3 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THAT OPHELIA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT
OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE
UNITED STATES SOUTHEAST COAST...RESULTING IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS ARE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT MAKING THE
FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. BOTH THE GFDL AND THE ECMWF BRING THE
CYCLONE WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS PROBABLY
THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE OTHER
MODELS KEEP OFELIA LOOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE BEST
OPTION IN THESE CASES OF LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS TO FORECAST
LITTLE MOTION. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DRIFT BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
OPHELIA WILL LIKELY MEANDER JUST OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

ALL INTERESTS IN NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 28.8N 79.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 29.2N 79.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 29.5N 80.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 29.8N 80.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 30.0N 80.3W 60 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 30.5N 80.3W 65 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 80.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 12/1200Z 30.5N 80.0W 70 KT

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA HAS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LASTER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...28.8 N... 79.4 W. MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 6


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 07, 2005


...Ophelia has changed little in intensity...expected to meander off
the northeast Florida coast for the next few days...

at 5 PM EDT 2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning south of Cocoa Beach
has been discontinued. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect
for the East Coast of Florida from Cocoa Beach northward to Flagler
Beach. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northeast Florida
coast from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach. A tropical
storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area within the next 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in northern and central Florida...and the
southeastern United States coast should monitor the progress of
this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 28.9 north...longitude 79.4 west or about
80 miles east-northeast of Cape Canaveral Florida.

Ophelia has been nearly stationary during the past few hours but a
northwestward drift is expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph with higher gusts. Little
change in strength is expected tonight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the
center.

Latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA reconnaissance
plane was 996 mb...29.41 inches.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...28.9 N... 79.4 W. Movement
...Stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 50 mph. Minimum central
pressure...996 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
EDT.

Forecaster Avila

000
WTNT41 KNHC 072030
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

THERE HAS BEEN NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO REPORT. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME
PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER... THERE IS
PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 996 MB BUT WINDS REMAIN AT 45
KNOTS.

OPHELIA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO PREVAIL. IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRACTICALLY
KEEPS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MEANDERING WITHIN AN AREA OF ABOUT 100
NAUTICAL MILES FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM
WATER IN THIS AREA...BUT THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THEN
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. DUE TO THIS VARIABILITY...ONLY
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST...AS SUGGESTED
BY THE SHIPS MODEL.

MODELS CONTINUE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK. THE
GFS WHICH LOOPED THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE WEST IN THE PREVIOUS
RUN...IS NOW SHOWING A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NOGAPS WHICH
EARLIER TURN OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM FLORIDA IS BRINGING
THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE U.S. COAST. THE GFDL STUBBORNLY INSISTS ON
A TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD FLORIDA...AND THE STORY GOES
ON AND ON. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE THE LUXURY OF
MAKING SUCH LARGE CHANGES IN TRACK EVERY SIX HOUR...THE BEST OPTION
FOR WEAK STEERING CURRENT SCENARIOS IS TO MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE
NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION OF THE
CONSENSUS.

ALL INTERESTS IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 28.9N 79.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 29.1N 79.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 29.5N 80.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 30.0N 80.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 30.3N 80.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 12/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W 70 KT

A very slow movement is expected over the next 48 to 60 hours. Because the ridge is stronger then expected. The models like the Nogaps/Ecmwf and Gfdl show a west to northwest track then after. Lbar/bamm/bamd hurricane models with cmc. Show a track to the northeast or east.

The eye has started to develop on radar. I expect a slow increase. In a hurricane by friday now.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY AND SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT
80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE THIS MORNING. A
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...28.8 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

0300 UTC 9/8/2005 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST #4

This is an independent product

Tropical Storm Ophelia continues to become better organized. Ophelia's radar appearance is impressive this evening, a well defined center of circulation is evident with a strong western eyewall. Latest recon report indicates no increase in wind speed but a decrease in pressure to 994 mb, this is a 6 mb drop since the previous forecast this morning. Ophelia is under light SSE shear on the return side of the upper anticyclonic flow and warm SSTs, so conditions should stay fairly favorable for intensification. This forecast brings Ophelia to hurricane status in 36 hours.

The track forecast is problematic. The GFDL still brings Ophelia inland over north FL, while the GFS and CMC are out to sea. The UKMET, NOGAPS, and MM5 models indicate a N and then NE motion followed by a turn to the west after 3-4 days. This forecast is close to the CONU, but leans towards the NOGAPS and UKMET solutions, as these models seem to have the best synoptic grasp of the current situation. This forecast is slightly right and slower than the previous one in the short term and indicates a possible looping motion beyond 3-4 days.

Initial (0000 UTC): 28.8N 79.3W 45KT
12 Hour: 29.0N 79.5W 50KT
24 Hour: 29.2N 79.7W 55KT
36 Hour: 29.4N 79.8W 65KT
48 Hour: 29.8N 79.7W 70KT
72 Hour: 30.5N 78.0W 75KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 30.5N 77.0W 75KT
120 Hour: 30.0N 77.5W 75KT

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

000
WTNT31 KNHC 080232
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...OPHELIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT
85 MILES... 140 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY. A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...28.9 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT41 KNHC 080258
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OPHELIA REMAINS SOMEWHAT SHEARED
THIS EVENING...WITH BURSTS OF CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT.
THE LATEST WSR-88D IMAGERY FROM MELBOURNE SHOWS A NEW BURST ABOUT
25-30 N MI WNW OF THE CENTER...AND THAT THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM
APPEARS SOMEWHAT DRY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS
EXTRAPOLATED CENTRAL PRESSURES OF 994 AND 995 MB...WITH MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB OF 54 KT. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE DOPPLER WINDS FROM MELBOURNE...AND BASED ON THESE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY. OPHELIA IS SOUTH OF A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...AND BETWEEN SEGMENTS OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THIS IS PRODUCING A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS...
UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST THE WESTERLIES TO SINK
SOUTHWARD AND STEER OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND GFDN
FORECAST SLOW AND LOOPING MOTION JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA COASTS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD...THE
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A SLOW MOTION...WITH THE NEW
TRACK SIMILAR TO AND JUST A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. SOME SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR CONTINUES...AND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST THAT MODERATE SHEAR
WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INDEED...IF THE STORM
GETS NORTH OF 30N THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE. IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR IMPINGING ON
THE STORM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THE GFDL BRINGS
OPHELIA TO 84 KT...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AT 64
KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL
AND BRING OPHELIA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HR. THIS IS ALSO A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

ALL INTERESTS IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE. SHOULD OPHELIA
STRENGTHEN FASTER AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY SOMETIME ON THURSDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 28.9N 79.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 29.1N 79.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 29.4N 79.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 29.8N 79.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 30.3N 79.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 30.5N 79.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 30.5N 78.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 13/0000Z 30.5N 78.5W 70 KT

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHELIA GETTING STRONGER AS IT MEANDERS OFF THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE
WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION...INCLUDING SMALL LOOPS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... A GENERAL NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD DRIFT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA
LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER. RADAR AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 25 MILES OF CAPE CANAVERAL...AND NOAA BUOY
41009 LOCATED JUST EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 36 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...28.7 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT
...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 55 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT31 KNHC 080842
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHELIA SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT REMAINS STATIONARY
EAST OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. STEERING
CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION...
INCLUDING SMALL LOOPS...WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... A GENERAL
NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA
LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 25 MILES OF CAPE
CANAVERAL.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...28.7 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT41 KNHC 080904
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

AIRCRAFT RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT AND MELBOURNE WSR-88D
DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES OF 60-64 KT BETWEEN 6000-7000 FT SUPPORT
INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT. HOWEVER...RECON DATA
JUST IN INDICATES SURFACE WINDS OF 56 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
987 MB. IF THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS...THEN A SPECIAL ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY AND LOWER THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS STATIONARY. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN WEAK STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT 3 TO PERHAPS 5 DAYS AS
THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS INTACT...WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY...AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SOW NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS
WITH A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION AFTER THAT. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW
FAR EAST WILL OPHELIA GO BEFORE IT LOOPS BACK TO THE WEST. THE GFDL
IS THE FARTHEST WEST MODEL AND MOVES THE CYCLONE INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA IN 96 HOURS...WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER AND TAKES
OPHELIA MORE THAN 500 NMI EAST OF ITS CURRENT POSITION. THE REST OF
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS
SLOW AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS AND IS TO THE LEFT
OF AND SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH I FEEL HAS A
FAST BIAS DUE TO THE MUCH FASTER GFS MODEL. THE GFS PERFORMED
SIMILARLY DURING HURRICANE JEANNE LAST YEAR AND HAD SOME VERY LARGE
TRACK ERRORS.

SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SINCE OPHELIA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 29C AND WARMER SSTS AND UNDER LIGHT OT
MODERATE SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH 96 HOURS. AFTER THAT
...MORE STRENGTHENING THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST COULD OCCUR
SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 10 KT. HOWEVER...THE
EXPECTED CLOSE PROXIMITY OF VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR PRECLUDES
INCREASING THE INTENSITY IN THE LATTER PERIODS AT THIS TIME.

ALL INTERESTS IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE. SHOULD OPHELIA
STRENGTHEN FASTER AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY SOMETIME ON THURSDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 28.7N 79.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 29.0N 79.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 29.4N 79.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 09/1800Z 29.9N 79.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 10/0600Z 30.0N 79.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 30.2N 78.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 30.3N 78.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 13/0600Z 30.0N 78.0W 70 KT

$$

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHELIA BARELY MOVING...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. A GENERALLY NORTHWARD DRIFT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 25 MILES OF CAPE
CANAVERAL.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...28.7 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHEILA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. RAIN BANDS WITH STRONG WINDS IN SQUALLS
HAVE BEEN SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...28.6 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 989 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

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