000
ABNT20 KNHC 151536
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
OPHELIA...LOCATED ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA.

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...AND THE SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR FRIDAY AS IT
MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 162121
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA...LOCATED ABOUT 170 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS.

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...1009 MB LOW...IS CENTERED ABOUT 370 NM
E OF BARBADOS NEAR 12N53W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT...ALONG THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 53W. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE LOW IS BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED
AND IS ISOLATING ITSELF FROM THE ITCZ AXIS AND A SEPARATE SWIRL
ABOUT 400 NM TO THE N. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD
DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HRS...WITH HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND SUN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 52W-55W. PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

By Sab it is now a tropical depression...


17/0600 UTC 12.1N 54.1W T2.0/2.0 95

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES... A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TODAY AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...1008 MB LOW...IS CENTERED ABOUT 320 NM
E OF BARBADOS NEAR 12N54W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE LOW
HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS ABOUT TO BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND SUN. PRESENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 51W-56W. PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 47W-53W.

I agree. this could be a moster.

000
WONT41 KNHC 171216
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
820 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

...SEVENTEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMING EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE ABOUT 370 MILES EAST OF BARBADOS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. THE FIRST ADVISORY ON
THE SYSTEM...POSSIBLY INCLUDING WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL BE ISSUED AT 11 AM AST...1500Z.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT32 KNHC 171435
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

...SEVENTEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DEPRESSION. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 305 MILES... 490 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...13.0 N... 55.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

WTNT42 KNHC 171450
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS ORGANIZED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN. THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS A CLUSTER OF STRONG
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER...OTHER CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS...AND GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...AS 40 KT WINDS SEEN IN A
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THIS MORNING MAY HAVE HAD RAIN CONTAMINATION
PROBLEMS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/8...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND HOW MUCH THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE REFORMED DURING THE NIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS
ARE UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC...AND THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PASS EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THEM DID NOT INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM VERY
WELL. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FARTHER EAST
GFDL AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE MORE WESTERLY BAM MODELS AND
LBAR.

THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER 30C WATER FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT. THUS...STEADY STRENGTHENING
SHOULD OCCUR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HR AND TO 95 KT BY 120 HR...AND THIS A
LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN EITHER THE SHIPS OR THE GFDL.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT IMMEDIATELY REQUIRE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AFTER THE POSITION AND
MOTION OF THE CYCLONE ARE BETTER ESTABLISHED.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 13.0N 55.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 13.7N 55.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 14.9N 56.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.1N 57.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 58.9W 65 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 19.5N 61.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.0N 62.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 22.5N 63.5W 95 KT

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

...DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DEPRESSION. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST OR
ABOUT 290 MILES... 470 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...13.8 N... 55.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT42 KNHC 172038
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A BROAD AND
ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE STRONG
CONVECTION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN...WITH THE REPORTED
POSITION SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB AND THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 1500 FT SO FAR ARE 40 KT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT QUITE A TROPICAL STORM...BUT IT SHOULD REACH
THAT STATUS SOMETIME TONIGHT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/8. STEERING
CURRENTS REMAIN UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC...AND
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...
WITH PERHAPS A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER THREE DAYS TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
THE SYSTEM TO PASS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THEM STILL DO NOT NOT INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM VERY WELL. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES ALONG THE LEFT SIDE
OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER 30C WATER FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE. THUS...
STEADY STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR. THE SHIPS MODEL HAS A LITTLE
LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN 6 HR AGO AS IT IS FORECASTING A LITTLE
MORE SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE GFDL CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TO A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HR AND TO 95 KT
BY 120 HR...IN BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE GFDL.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT IMMEDIATELY REQUIRE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 13.8N 55.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 14.6N 56.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 15.6N 57.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 16.6N 58.1W 55 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 17.6N 59.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 61.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 62.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 22/1800Z 23.5N 63.0W 95 KT


40 knots at .8 is around 37 mph...Very close to tropical storm.

URNT12 KNHC 172040
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/20:13:20Z
B. 13 deg 44 min N
054 deg 54 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 25 kt
E. 47 deg 069 nm
F. 151 deg 034 kt
G. 050 deg 107 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 22 C/ 307 m
J. 24 C/ 306 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0117A CYCLONE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 40 KT SE QUAD 18:21:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
MAX FL TEMP 25 C, 333 / 8NM

000
WTNT32 KNHC 180313
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTENN STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM
PHILIPPE WELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PHILIPPE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST OR ABOUT
295 MILES... 475 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 485
MILES... 780 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH
... 7 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES
... 45 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...14.1 N... 55.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT42 KNHC 180330
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

CONVENTIONAL AND MCIROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST TROPICAL STORM
PHILIPPE HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. A 17/2154Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED THE SURFACE
CENTER WEST OF 55W LONGITUDE...WHEREAS THE RECON POSITION NEAR THAT
TIME INDICATED A CIRCULATION CENTER EAST OF 55W. MY FEELING IS THAT
THE RECON CENTER WAS A SMALL CIRCULATION ROTATING NORTHWARD UP THE
EAST SIDE OF THE LARGER LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND THAT THE TWO CENTERS
HAVE NOW CONSOLIDATED NEAR 55W. A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER AND SOUTH OF THE ALLEGED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB...35 KT FROM
SAB...AND 25 KT FROM AFWA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AN AVERAGE OF THE
VARIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES. A RECON AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING
PHILIPPE AROUND 06Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 335/4. STEERING CURRENTS ARE
UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR THIS REGION OF THE ATLANTIC...AND PHILIPPE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THAT MAY RESULT IN A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER DIVERGENT...BUT IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST MOTION AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 30C AND WARMER SSTS FOR THE NEXT
5 DAYS...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT.
THEREFORE...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT.

BASED ON THE MORE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK...WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY PORTION OF THE
LESSER ANTILES. HOWEVER...WITH STEERING CURRENTS BEING RATHER WEAK
AND ILL-DEFINED...ANY WESTWARD SHIFT COULD REQUIRE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS AT SOME POINT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.1N 55.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 14.9N 55.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 15.8N 56.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 57.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 58.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.6N 59.9W 75 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 61.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 62.0W 95 KT

000
WTNT32 KNHC 180835
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...PHILIPPE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
PHILIPPE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT
455 MILES... 730 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...14.6 N... 55.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

000
WTNT42 KNHC 180836
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE SHOW A SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED
CLOUD PATTERN. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 3.0...CORRESPONDING TO
45 KT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE
CENTER IS THAT WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP
CONVECTION...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE T-NUMBER. THE
INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WE
WILL PROBABLY HAVE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM
WHEN VISIBLE IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE. PHILIPPE'S UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...ALTHOUGH IT IS
RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH
72 HOURS. MY WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE SHIPS AT DAYS
4-5 BECAUSE THE WESTERLY SHEAR MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY
THIS GUIDANCE AT THESE LATER FORECAST TIMES.

PHILIPPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE CONTINUING ON A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK...325/04. THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THIS REGIME WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS PREDICTED. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT ON THIS KIND OF TRACK. THE CURRENT NHC
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS PRETTY MUCH
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT NECESSITATE ANY WATCHES
OR WARNINGS FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES...INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHILIPPE.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0900Z 14.6N 55.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 15.3N 56.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 16.4N 56.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 57.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 18.7N 58.7W 70 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 60.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 22/0600Z 23.5N 61.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 23/0600Z 26.0N 62.5W 95 KT

000
WTNT32 KNHC 181448
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...PHILIPPE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BUT MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
PHILIPPE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.7 WEST OR ABOUT
425 MILES... 685 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND PHILIPPE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...15.2 N... 55.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

000
WTNT42 KNHC 181510
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED SOME MORE NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER...AND BANDING FEATURES ARE EVIDENT IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. AS A RESULT... DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE
INCREASED TO 3.0...SUPPORTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 45 KT.
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...SINCE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG
ABOUT 25N IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO WEAKEN AND PROVIDE A
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN BRINGING
PHILIPPE TO 85 KT BY 72 HOURS...AND THEN FOLLOWS THE GFDL IN
FORECASTING ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 335/6 IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...PERHAPS DUE TO THE CENTER BEING DRAWN IN THAT
DIRECTION BY THE LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH TAKES THE
DEVELOPING STORM NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
CELLS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT NECESSITATE ANY WATCHES
OR WARNINGS FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES...INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHILIPPE.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.2N 55.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 16.0N 56.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.1N 57.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 18.2N 58.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 19.4N 58.8W 75 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 22.0N 60.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 61.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 27.0N 62.0W 100 KT

182035
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...PHILIPPE CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.9 WEST OR ABOUT
400 MILES... 645 KM... EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH... 13
KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
...130 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...15.9 N... 55.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...PHILIPPE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.9 WEST OR ABOUT 390
MILES... 630 KM... EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...16.5 N... 55.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

Back to top

245
WTNT42 KNHC 190259
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
OF 83 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. THE PLANE SUBSEQUENTLY CLIMBED
TO 700 MB BECAUSE OF TURBULENCE IN THE STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS
TYPICAL OF INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS
ALSO MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 988 MB IN THE EYE BY
DROPWINDSONDE. THE DROP HAD SURFACE WINDS OF 17 KT...SO THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER. USING THE
80 PER CENT FACTOR TO ESIMATE SURFACE WINDS FROM 850 MB...CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT. PHILIPPE IS UPGRADED TO A
HURRICANE...THE EIGHTH OF THE SEASON...ON THIS ADVISORY.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS STRONG OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATER IN THE
PERIOD...THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF AS PHILIPPE
ENCOUNTERS SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES NORTH OF ABOUT 23N.

BASED ON THE LATEST RECON FIXES...THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/7...
ALTHOUGH THE SHORTER-TERM MOVEMENT HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTHWARD.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 60W. THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE
HURRICANE TO MOVE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD PATH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SUITE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.5N 55.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 56.6W 70 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.6N 57.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.6N 58.3W 80 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.8N 58.8W 85 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 59.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 60.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 29.0N 60.5W 95 KT

000
WTNT42 KNHC 190830
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

BASED ON AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND DVORAK SATELLITE
ANALYSES...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 65 KT.
ALTHOUGH RECON REPORTED A CLOSED EYEWALL...AN EYE HAS NOT YET BEEN
EVIDENT ON INFRARED IMAGES. CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW STRONG OUTFLOW
OVER MOST SECTORS OF THE CYCLONE. THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
ENVIRONMENT...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF 29-30 DEG C...APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS OR SO. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL LATER IN THE
PERIOD WHEN STRONGER WESTERLY SHEAR MAY HALT THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM
THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS OUTPUT THROUGH 96 HOURS AND
A LITTLE ABOVE THAT GUIDANCE AT DAY 5.

BASED ON EARLIER RECON FIXES...THE MOTION HAS BEEN JUST WEST OF DUE
NORTH AND A LITTLE SLOWER...350/6. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 60-65W WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING REGIME IS CONSISTENT WITH A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE....AND SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONU.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.1N 56.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.9N 56.5W 70 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.9N 57.2W 75 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 19.9N 57.9W 80 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 58.4W 85 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 23.5N 59.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 26.5N 60.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 29.5N 60.0W 90 KT

000
WTNT32 KNHC 191451
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...PHILIPPE PASSING WELL EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES... 585 KM...
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...17.4 N... 56.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

000
WTNT42 KNHC 191450
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED A SOMEWHAT RAGGED
HURRICANE WITH THE CENTER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. AN 1156 UTC SSMI
PASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED
JUST WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST
HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSOUS 65 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

BASED ON THE SSMI MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 345/6 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE
CYCLONE NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
60W. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...SINCE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE PHILIPPE TO THE NORTH
THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST.

DUE TO THE RAGGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR
CURRENTLY OVER THE CYCLONE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
LESS AGGRESSIVE DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO LESSEN BETWEEN 36-72 HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW PHILIPPE
TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CLOSELY.

FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.4N 56.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 56.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 57.4W 70 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 20.2N 58.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 21.7N 58.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 59.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 27.5N 60.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 31.5N 59.5W 90 KT

$$

HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED A SOMEWHAT RAGGED
HURRICANE WITH THE CENTER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. AN 1156 UTC SSMI
PASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED
JUST WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST
HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSOUS 65 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

BASED ON THE SSMI MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 345/6 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE
CYCLONE NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
60W. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...SINCE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE PHILIPPE TO THE NORTH
THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST.

DUE TO THE RAGGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR
CURRENTLY OVER THE CYCLONE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
LESS AGGRESSIVE DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO LESSEN BETWEEN 36-72 HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW PHILIPPE
TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CLOSELY.

FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.4N 56.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 56.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 57.4W 70 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 20.2N 58.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 21.7N 58.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 59.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 27.5N 60.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 31.5N 59.5W 90 KT

000
WTNT32 KNHC 192037
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...PHILIPPE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 355 MILES... 570 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 85 MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...18.0 N... 56.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

000
WTNT32 KNHC 200231
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...PHILIPPE SLIGHTLY STRONGER...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST OR ABOUT 340
MILES... 545 KM... EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH
... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 85 MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...18.3 N... 56.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER

000
WTNT42 KNHC 200230
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

ALTHOUGH PHILIPPE HAS NOT BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE
IMAGES AND BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT WELL DEFINED...BASED ON THE
DVORAK TECHNIQUE USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...THE HURRICANE
HAS STRENGTHENED A BIT. INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 70
KT. SOME VERTICAL SHEAR IS BEING IMPARTED ON THE HURRICANE DUE TO A
SWATH OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE OUTFLOW OF
RITA...NEAR AND NORTH OF 20N. HOWEVER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THIS SHEAR WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW
STRENGTHENING...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...330/5.
TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 60W.
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS...AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 18.3N 56.8W 70 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 57.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 57.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 22.3N 58.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 24.2N 58.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 28.5N 59.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 59.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 37.0N 53.0W 70 KT

Hurricane Philippe Advisory Number 12


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 20, 2005


...Philippe headed slowly toward open waters...
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Philippe was located
near latitude 18.8 north... longitude 56.8 west or about 350
miles... 560 km... east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.
Philippe is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph
... 9 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is possible during the next 24
hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 30 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 85 miles...140 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb...29.09 inches.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...18.8 N... 56.8 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 6 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 80 mph. Minimum central pressure... 985 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am EDT.

Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Philippe Discussion Number 12


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 20, 2005


Philippe's cloud pattern is characterized by a rather amorphous-
looking mass of very deep convection...although recent satellite
images suggest that it may be developing sort of a comma shape.
The lack of upper-level outflow over the western sectors of the
hurricane suggests some westerly shearing...due to the flow at the
base of a broad upper-tropospheric trough associated with the
outflow to the east of Rita. Although the SHIPS model also
diagnoses significant shear affecting Philippe during the forecast
period...it nonetheless predicts some strengthening. The offficial
forecast similarly shows an increase in strength up to 48
hours...but GOES a fair amount below SHIPS thereafter because the
shear is expected to become simply too strong for Philippe to
maintain its intensity by that time.
I have estimated the center to be west of the fixes from the various
agencies...both for continuity from the previous track...and the
presence of westerly shear. Track forecast philosphy remains
essentially unchanged from the past few advisory packages.
Philippe is moving toward a break in the subtropical ridge in the
vicinity of 60w. Late in the forecast period...a strong 500 mb
shortwave trough is expected to dig southward from the Canadian
Maritimes. This feature should cause Philippe to accelerate
northeastward by days 4-5. The official track forecast is quite
similar to the previous one...and along the general trajectory
of...but a little slower than...the dynamical model consensus.
Forecaster Pasch


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 20/0900z 18.8n 56.8w 70 kt
12hr VT 20/1800z 19.8n 57.2w 70 kt
24hr VT 21/0600z 21.3n 57.6w 75 kt
36hr VT 21/1800z 23.0n 58.1w 80 kt
48hr VT 22/0600z 25.0n 58.6w 85 kt
72hr VT 23/0600z 29.5n 59.5w 75 kt
96hr VT 24/0600z 34.0n 58.0w 65 kt
120hr VT 25/0600z 38.0n 52.0w 60 kt

000
WTNT32 KNHC 201458
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...PHILIPPE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.1 WEST OR
ABOUT 320 MILES... 515 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH
... 7 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 85 MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...18.3 N... 57.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

$$

000
WTNT42 KNHC 201454
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVERNIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA HELPED TO DETERMINE THAT
THE CENTER WAS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WESTERLY
SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THE HURRICANE...AND WITHIN
THE LAST HOUR OR TWO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A RELOCATION OF THE CENTER AND A WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS.
CURRENT DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS SUPPORT AROUND 55 KT. HOWEVER...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE LOWERED TO 65 KT BASED
A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS.
THIS INTENSITY COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS BUT IT IS BETTER TO WAIT TO
SEE IF THE WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES BEFORE DOWNGRADING PHILIPPE.

THIS TRACK FORECAST CONTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AND
ASSUMES THAT PHILIPPE WILL REMAIN A DEEP SYSTEM. THE FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THEN
ACCELERATE NORTH THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
IN 4-5 DAYS. IF THE CURRENT WESTERLY SHEAR DOES NOT RELAX AS
EXPECTED AND PHILIPPE WEAKENS...IT COULD TRACK FURTHER WESTWARD
AND ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK WOULD BE NEEDED.

DUE TO THE CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARENCE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WEAKENS PHILIPPE TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS. THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL CONTINUES TO RELAX THE WESTERLY SHEAR IN 12-24
HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT
RESTRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MUCH MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL. IF PHILIPPE SURVIVES....
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND THIS
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.

FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 18.3N 57.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 18.8N 57.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 20.7N 57.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 22.9N 58.4W 70 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 25.0N 59.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 30.5N 59.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 35.5N 56.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 25/1200Z 40.0N 48.0W 55 KT

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...PHILIPPE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST OR ABOUT
305 MILES... 495 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH
... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...18.8 N... 57.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

000
WTNT42 KNHC 202039
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

PHILIPPE IS MUCH EASIER TO FIND THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THE CENTER IS
EXPOSED JUST WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENT DVORAK DATA T
NUMBERS CORRESPOND TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES.
BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE POOR SATELLITE
APPEARENCE...PHILIPPE IS DOWNGRADED TO A 55 KT TROPICAL STORM ON
THIS ADVISORY.

AGAIN THE TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES THAT PHILIPPE WILL SURVIVE THE
CURRENT WESTERLY SHEAR AND REMAIN A DEEP SYSTEM. THE FORECAST
TRACK WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BASED ON THE MORE WESTWARD
INITIAL LOCATION. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...THEN ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN 3-4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS CLOSELY. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 120 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS.

THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF PHILIPPE
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WESTERLY SHEAR. IT SEEMS THAT THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE MOVING THE UPPER LOW TOO QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...SO
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MIGHT NOT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS SOON
AS THE MODELS SUGGEST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY BY ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE A
LITTLE...ALLOWING THE TROPICAL STORM TO SLOWLY RESTRENGTHEN IN THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN 48-72 HOURS WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE ONCE AND FOR ALL.

FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.8N 57.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 19.8N 57.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 21.8N 58.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 24.0N 59.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 26.5N 59.7W 65 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 32.0N 60.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 37.5N 54.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW


$$

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

WESTERLY SHEAR...DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N 60W...CONTINUES
TO INHIBIT RE-INTENSIFICATION OF PHILIPPE. THE CLOUD PATTERN
REMAINS QUITE DISORGANIZED WITH LITTLE SEMBLANCE OF BANDING
FEATURES...WHILE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP AND
SUBSEQUENTLY SHEAR AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE GFS
PREDICTS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL DEGENERATE INTO A NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST SHEAR AXIS...AND THAT THE SHEAR OVER PHILIPPE WILL WEAKEN
WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO. THEREFORE PHILIPPE MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE DIFFICULTY PREDICTING TROPICAL 200
MB FLOWS...AND THE SHEARING OVER THE STORM MAY NOT RELAX. IN ANY
EVENT...AROUND 48 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A
FINAL WEAKENING TREND. BY 5 DAYS...GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS PHILIPPE
MERGING WITH A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THIS SHEARED TROPICAL
CYCLONE USING INFRARED IMAGERY. MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION
IS 340/5. REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED. PHILIPPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD...THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...UNTIL IT PASSES ABOUT 32N. AFTERWARD THE
SYSTEM SHOULD RECURVE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MAINLY AN EXTENSION OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 19.3N 57.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 20.7N 57.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 22.9N 58.1W 60 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 25.2N 58.9W 65 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 27.5N 59.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 32.5N 59.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 38.0N 52.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 26/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

000
WTNT32 KNHC 210229
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...PHILIPPE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST OR ABOUT
315 MILES... 505 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH
... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...19.3 N... 57.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

000
WTNT32 KNHC 210828
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

...PHILIPPE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST OR ABOUT
325 MILES... 525 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR...AND
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...19.5 N... 57.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

000
WTNT42 KNHC 210828
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN... AS
PERSISTENT WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 23N 60W IMPINGES ON PHILIPPE.
THE GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING THAT THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN...
AND THAT THE SHEAR OVER PHILIPPE WILL LESSEN. THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY
THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM BACK TO HURRICANE STRENGTH
IN 24-36 HOURS. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTIES THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS CAN
HAVE IN PREDICTING TROPICAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOWS...I AM SOMEWHAT
DUBIOUS ABOUT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE...SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON
RESTRENGTHENING. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...PHILIPPE IS
LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC AS SUGGESTED BY THE NOGAPS AND U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL
FORECAST FIELDS.

IT CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE TO FIND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...
ALTHOUGH AN AMSU-B PASS FROM 0201Z SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS
NOT AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THUS THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE...350/4...IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE SLOWER
STARTING SPEED DICTATES A LITTLE SLOWER FORECAST FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF DAYS. OTHERWISE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE SAME
GENERAL PATH AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL/
UKMET/NOGAPS/GFS CONSENSUS. IT IS STILL ANTICIPATED THAT PHILIPPE
WILL RECURVE AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 4 IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A
SLIGHTLY UNSETTLING ASPECT OF THE GUIDANCE IS THE 00Z GFS
RUN...WHICH DOES NOT SHOW PHILIPPE GETTING COMPLETELY PICKED UP BY
THE TROUGH...AND LEAVES A PIECE OF THE SYSTEM WANDERING ABOUT IN
THE SUBTROPICS. THIS SCENARIO IS REJECTED AT THE PRESENT TIME.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 19.5N 57.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 21.2N 57.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 23.3N 58.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 25.7N 59.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 28.2N 59.6W 60 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 33.5N 58.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 38.5N 50.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTNT32 KNHC 211443
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

...PHILIPPE WEAKENS FURTHER...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST OR ABOUT
370 MILES... 595 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR.
A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...20.2 N... 57.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

$$