THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 170 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
SLOWLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY.


Yet another hehehehe This will likely be rita!!! :silly:

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 145 NM E OF GRAND TURK NEAR
22N68.5W MOVING NW 5-10 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN IMPROVING AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY
ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF TSTMS HAS BEEN A LITTLE RAGGED
AND DISORGANIZED. THE LOW SITS ABOUT 400 NM E OF AN UPPER LOW
WHICH IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 67W-70W. TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS FROM JUST
N OF HISPANIOLA TOWARDS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ESPECIALLY IF
CONVECTION CAN PERSIST AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE
CENTER. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE LOW THROUGH THE BAHAMAS OVER
THE NEXT 48-72 HRS AND IT IS ADVISED THAT ALL INTERESTS IN THE
BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA REMAIN ABREAST OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS
ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS. REGARDLESS OFF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS WWD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...S FLORIDA...AND CUBA
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
0300Z SUN SEP 18 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND IN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 69.7W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 69.7W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 69.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.1N 73.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.6N 75.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.0N 77.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 90.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 69.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

...THE EIGHTEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE YEAR FORMS TO THE EAST
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND IN CENRTAL AND WESTERN CUBA CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR
ABOUT 95 MILES... 155 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.0 N... 69.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


WOW WOW WOW this came out of no where. a)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NEARBY BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS HAS
ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KT FROM TAFB AND EARLIER SHIP
REPORTS. BANDING HAS INCREASED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
SEVERAL MODERATE CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED AROUND
THE SURFACE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09. TD-18 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT LIES JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. AFTER THAT...
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE WEAKNESS WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AS THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST BUILDS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FILLING RDIGE WEAKNESS IS
UNCERTAIN AND THAT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE MOVES
BEFORE IT TURNS WESTWARD. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL KEEP
THE SYSTEM OVER OR SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. ONLY THE CANADIAN
MODEL AND THE TIGHTLY PACKED BAM MODELS BRING THE STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 60-72 HOURS. SINCE THE
DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE...THE CIRCULATION CENTER
COULD EASILY DEVELOP ANY WHERE WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS...
WHICH COULD RESULT IN NORTH-SOUTH SHIFTS IN THE FORECAST TRACK
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ALL INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS...SOUTH
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH MORE OF A CHALLENGE THAN THE TRACK
FORECAST IS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE 36-60 HOUR TIME FRAME...WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER
30C AND WARMER SSTS. THIS WOULD FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR DOES NOT GET ENTRAINED INTO THE CENTER. AFTERWARDS...
THE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL GRADUALLY INCREASES THE
WESTERLY SHEAR TO MORE THAN 20 KT AND LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY AT
73 KT. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A
200 MB ANTICYCLONE WITH AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS BY 48 HOURS. EVEN THE GFS DEVELOPS A
SIMILAR UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SUCH A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE MUCH
STRONGER BY 72 HOURS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE SHIPS
MODEL. THE 18Z GFDL MODEL RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM INTO A
120-KT HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS. WHILE THAT RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
MAY BE A LITTLE EXCESSIVE...THIS SYSTEM REACHING STRONG CATEGORY 2
STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS IS CERTAINLY A VIABLE SCENARIO.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 22.0N 69.7W 25 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 22.5N 71.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 23.1N 73.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 23.6N 75.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 24.0N 77.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 90.5W 80 KT

000
WTNT33 KNHC 180543
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...FIRST RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE SYSTEM SHORTLY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR
ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM... NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT HAD BEEN SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE HAS BEEN DIVERTED AND WILL
BE REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN SHORTLY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...22.1 N... 70.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...DEPRESSION ORGANIZING EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS
RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST OR ABOUT
15 MILES... 25 KM... NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND AND ABOUT
455 MILES... 730 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR. A
GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...21.7 N... 71.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

THE RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT WAS EN ROUTE TO TROPICAL STORM
PHILIPPE WAS DIVERTED TO THE DEPRESSION...AND WE VERY MUCH
APPRECIATE THE LAST MINUTE FLEXIBILITY OF THE AIRCREW. WHEN THEY
FIRST GOT TO THE DEPRESSION...THEY DIDN'T FIND MUCH...INCLUDING
ONLY 5 KT OF WEST WIND AND A CENTER SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ON THEIR SECOND PASS THROUGH THEY FOUND THAT
THE CENTER HAD MIGRATED OR REDEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION...
WHICH IS NOW TAKING ON A SLIGHTLY MORE BANDED APPEARANCE ON THE
FIRST FEW IMAGES AFTER THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE. THESE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 36 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 25 KT.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA REQUIRE A RELOCATION OF THE CENTER TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE BASIC TRACK
REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. AFTER THAT...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD TURN THE DEPRESSION
WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE UKMET IS FARTHER SOUTH...TAKING THE CYCLONE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS ALSO SOUTH
OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK...TAKING THE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF KEY WEST.

UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA...AND THIS
LOW IS PRODUCING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER...THIS LOW
IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.
THIS UPPER PATTERN...COUPLED WITH VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE...WOULD FAVOR MORE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT AS LONG AS THE CYCLONE AVOIDS THE LAND MASS OF CUBA.
THE GFDL IS NOT NEARLY AS AGRESSIVE AS IT WAS EARLIER TODAY...NOT
MAKING THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE UNTIL IT IS WELL INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY IN BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AND FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0900Z 21.7N 71.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 22.2N 73.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 22.8N 75.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 23.4N 77.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 23.8N 80.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 24.0N 84.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 22/0600Z 24.0N 89.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 23/0600Z 24.0N 93.5W 80 KT

000
WTNT33 KNHC 181440
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...DEPRESSION ORGANIZING AS IT NEARS THE BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY
TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR
ABOUT 390 MILES... 625 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...22.0 N... 72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

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000
WTNT43 KNHC 181502
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
BANDING FEATURES IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 12Z WERE UNANIMOUSLY 30 KT... AND THIS IS THE NEW
ADVISORY INTENSITY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
WESTERN CUBA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD...CONTINUES TO
IMPOSE THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR ON THE DEPRESSION THAT IS CAUSING THE
ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS
UPPER LOW/TROUGH FEATURE TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. THIS PATTERN CHANGE...ALONG WITH
PLENTY WARM OCEAN WATERS...SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT SOMEWHAT
MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE GFS-BASED SHIPS
DIAGNOSES MUCH LESS SHEAR BEGINNING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AS IS OFTEN
THE CASE WITH DEVELOPING SYSTEMS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GFDL REMAINS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE...NOT
FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A HURRICANE UNTIL IT IS WELL INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS FORECASTS A 64 KT
HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS...WITH CONTINUED STRENGTHENING
THEREAFTER...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10...NEARLY ALONG THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR COULD BE FORCING SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER FARTHER NORTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND IN FACT IT COULD ALREADY BE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE ADVISORY
POSITION. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT RIDGING TO FORCE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
SOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION COULD OCCUR DUE TO SOME DOWNSHEAR
REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN
ALONG THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER THAT...EXCEPT FOR INTRODUCING A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEND AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO MODELS
EXPECTED SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON THE CURRENT SIZE
OF THE CIRCULATION AND ON WIND RADII CLIPER GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE
NEW FORECAST... HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 22.0N 72.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 22.6N 73.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 23.2N 76.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 23.7N 78.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 23.8N 80.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 24.0N 85.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 90.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 25.0N 94.0W 90 KT

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...DEPRESSION SLOWLY ORGANIZING AS IT NEARS THE BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AND FOR CUBA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 385 MILES... 625 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE
BAHAMAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH... 17 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...21.9 N... 72.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...17TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS...
...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND FOR CUBA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH
SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE
SABLE.

AT 5 PM EDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA
HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 355
MILES... 570 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110
KM... MAINLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...22.2 N... 72.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND A VERY
IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION... BUT DID RECENTLY MEASURE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005
MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 45 KT... WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY... SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM WELL TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER HAVE INDICATED WINDS OF 30-35 KT
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THESE DATA... COMBINED WITH DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KT SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO A
TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS. THE LACK OF WIND NEAR THE CENTER
IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THAT ALL OF THE CONVECTION AND PERHAPS A
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ARE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH... DUE TO
SOUTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CUBA.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL IN THE PROCESS OF ORGANIZING. IT HAS A
FAIRLY LARGE CIRCULATION AND SOME DEEP CONVECTION WITH
TOPS COLDER THAN -70C... AND WHILE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE SHEAR... IT IS BECOMING WELL
ESTABLISHED IN THE REMAINING THREE QUADRANTS. SINCE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE TO
BUILD IN ITS PLACE OVER FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. WHILE THE GFDL STILL DOES NOT
FORECAST DEVELOPMENT UNTIL RITA REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECAST OF 64 KT BY 48 HOURS SEEMS MORE LIKELY.
THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ANTICIPATING A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ONCE THE STORM REACHES THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

THE INITIAL AND FORECAST MOTION ARE COMPLICATED BY THE ASYMMETRIC
CLOUD PATTERN...WHICH SEEM TO WANT TO DRAG THE SYSTEM NORTH OF A
DUE WEST TRACK...WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE IS TRYING TO FORCE THE SYSTEM DUE WESTWARD. THESE FACTORS
WILL CONTINUE TO BATTLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SHEAR
RELAXES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH IN TAKING
THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...IN SOME CASES SOUTH OF DUE
WEST...TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD SINCE IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THE CENTER
WILL REFORM FARTHER NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 22.2N 72.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 22.6N 74.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 23.2N 77.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 23.5N 79.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 23.5N 82.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 23.5N 87.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 24.0N 91.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 25.5N 95.0W 95 KT

000
WTNT42 KNHC 182100
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C HAS
DEVELOPED VERY NEAR THE CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE STILL HOLDING AT T3.0/ 45 KT...BUT THE
INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
PATTERN IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO
THE NORTHWEST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/07. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UNSEASONABLY WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT AND ON THIS SCENARIO... WITH THE
ONLY DIFFERENCE BEING THE FORWARD SPEED. THE NOGAPS MODEL IS THE
FASTEST AND THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS NEAR THE
NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS PHILIPPE PRODUCING A
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN AND PRODUCING LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. WITH
THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER 30C SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AT LEAST
SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING SEEMS TO BE IN ORDER.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT PHILIPPE WILL NOT REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF ANY
WATCHES OR WARNING FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES.

FORECASTER STEWART/KNABB

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 15.9N 55.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.7N 56.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.8N 57.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.9N 58.2W 70 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 20.1N 58.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 23.0N 59.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 25.5N 60.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 28.5N 61.5W 95 KT

$$

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...RITA GETTING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. THE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE
WARNING LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING
LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL
RIO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. THE WATCH
AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
POSSIBLY A HURRICANE WATCH LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS
REFORMING FARTHER NORTH NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.9
WEST OR ABOUT 330 MILES ...530 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE INDICATE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS... AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BY LATE
MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110
KM... MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...22.7 N... 72.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...RITA MOVING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z... THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM OCEAN REEF
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 PM EDT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL
RIO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...
EXCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA AND ABACO ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

AT 11 PM EDT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE
WESTWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 295
MILES... 480 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR
THE NEXT A 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BY LATE
MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM... MAINLY NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...AND IN
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.9 N... 73.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

THE LAST RECON REPORT AT 17/2324Z INDICATED MAXIMUM RELIABLE 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT...OR ROUGHLY 44 KT SURFACE WINDS.
THERE WAS ONE FLIGHT-LEVEL REPORT OF 67 KT...BUT THIS OCCURRED
DURING CLIMBOUT TO A HIGHER ALTITUDE TO AVOID TURBULENCE...AND IS
THEREFORE NOT DEEMED REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL WIND FIELD. SINCE
THE LAST RECON FLIGHT...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER...SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09. RITA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN MOVING
OR PROPAGATING NORTHWESTWARD THE PAST 6 TO 9 HOURS. THIS MOTION MAY
BE DUE TO THE CENTER REFORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...OR
ACTUAL MOVEMENT TOWARD A WEAKER BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED ALONG 75W LONGITUDE. ALSO...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR JAMAICA HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR CAYMAN BRAC
AND HAS NOT WEAKENED LIKE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING.
THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF UPPER
LOW...COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF BERMUDA...SHOULD STEER RITA
IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 TO PERHAPS
24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE
THAT THE LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE GULF COAST
FROM A HIGH CENTER OVER LOUISIANA WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD AND
TURN RITA WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE SAME MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE
HEIGHTS WILL NOT INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND...IN FACT...
HEIGHTS FROM 700 MB TO 400 MB HAVE NOT INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE
DECREASED. THIS ALL SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE
EAST OF FLORIDA MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED IN THE MODEL
FIELDS. AS SUCH...THERE MAY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKS IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE AND
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST...RITA SHOULD GRADUALLY
EVENTUALLY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
WAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT HAS
REQUIRED THE PREVIOUS WATCHES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BE UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOW FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM THE CURRENT 15 KT DOWN TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY 36-72
HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO
COCUR...ESPECIALLY SINCE RITA WILL BE OVER 30C SSTS AND IMPRESSIVE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPER
ENSEMBLE MODELS...WHICH ALL BRING THE CYCLONE TO MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH...AT LEAST 100 KT...BY 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 22.9N 73.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 23.4N 75.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 24.1N 77.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 24.3N 80.1W 75 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 24.2N 83.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 24.1N 88.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 24.5N 92.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 26.5N 95.5W 100 KT

000
WTNT33 KNHC 190537
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...
EXCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD
TO EAST CAPE SABLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND FOR GRAND
BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL
RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE
SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT
275 MILES... 445 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...23.0 N... 73.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTNT33 KNHC 190845
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA GATHERING STRENGTH IN THE BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...
EXCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD
TO EAST CAPE SABLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND FOR GRAND
BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL
RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE
SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES... 405 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 490 MILES... 790
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. A MOTION
JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND RITA COULD BECOME
A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...22.7 N... 74.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTNT33 KNHC 191452
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA STRENGTHENING OVER THE BAHAMAS...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY AND WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO
DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE
NOW IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF
GOLDEN BEACH.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER
INLET.

AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE
NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST OR ABOUT 195
MILES... 315 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 430 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES
...230 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...23.0 N... 75.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

000
WTNT43 KNHC 191507
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

SINCE THE LAST RECON FIX SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z...WHICH MEASURED A 997
MB CENTRAL PRESSURE...VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER...SO RITA IS DEVELOPING SUBSTANTIAL INNER CORE
CONVECTION FOR THE FIRST TIME. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z
WERE UNANIMOUSLY T3.5/55 KT...WHICH IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.
RECON IS SCHEDULED TO BE BACK INTO THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10
KNOTS...TO THE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 HOURS ON BASICALLY THIS CONTINUED
HEADING...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEEPENS.
MOST OF THE MODELS AND THEIR CONSENSUS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED LIKEWISE...BRINGING THE TRACK
CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
ADDITIONALLY...MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...DUE TO A
WEAKENING RIDGE AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES IN SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE
NORTH OR RIGHT OVER THE GULF...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

RECON DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SIZE OF THE STORM
IS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE EXPANDED BASED ON THESE DATA...WIND RADII
CLIPER GUIDANCE...AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICTING AN EXPANDING SYSTEM.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT RITA COULD AFFECT A LARGE AREA
AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...AND ALL FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RITA SHOULD
INTENSIFY SOME MORE...BEFORE AND AFTER IT REACHES THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND
IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE THROUGH DAY 3...AND
SHOWS RITA REACHING CATEGORY TWO STATUS BEFORE REACHING THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY IT COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER
THAN FORECAST. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RITA WILL BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DOMINATE AND PROVIDE A
WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 23.0N 75.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 23.4N 76.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 24.0N 79.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 24.4N 81.9W 90 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 24.7N 84.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 25.5N 88.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 26.5N 92.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 29.0N 95.0W 100 KT

TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA ENTERING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND FOR ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD
TO EAST CAPE SABLE. THE TROPICAL WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG BOTH COASTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING.

ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH IN THE TRACK OF RITA COULD REQUIRE AN
EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE
SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL
RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 235 MILES...
380 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 460 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. A MOTION
JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND RITA COULD BECOME
A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...22.8 N... 74.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WARNINGS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND WESTWARD
TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO
DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH
NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO
CHOKOLOSKEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GEORGETOWN ON GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM... SOUTHEAST
OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 380 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH... 23 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS
TUESDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ONBOARD A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RITA COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES
...230 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...23.1 N... 75.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

000
WTNT33 KNHC 192334
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA WOBBLES A LITTLE WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH LATER TONIGHT...

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO
DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL RIO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND WESTWARD
TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO
CHOKOLOSKEE....AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES... 225 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 315 MILES...
510 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR...IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR ANDROS ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...23.1 N... 77.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT43 KNHC 192058
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

RITA IS CLOSE TO HURRICANE STATUS... BUT IT IS NOT QUITE THERE YET.
THE STORM IS PRODUCING SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...
BANDING FEATURES IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS...AND
INCREASINGLY WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW INDICATING LESSENING SHEAR.
THE OVERALL EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THIS OFTEN OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE MINIMUM PERIOD. DATA FROM THE STEPPED
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ONBOARD A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT...RECENTLY INDICATED SURFACE WINDS AS STRONG AS 62
KT ABOUT 25 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE MEASURED BY DROPSONDE HAS BEEN HOLDING AT 994-995 MB...
AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 60 KT.

RITA IS ON TRACK... AND AS ANTICIPATED IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NOW AT 285/12. MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THAT THIS MOTION WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT BEND TO THE WEST INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 30N. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE LEFT
OR WEST AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...BRINGING THE CONSENSUS INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OVERALL THE NEW SUITE OF
GUIDANCE PROVIDES LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK... EXCEPT TO SPEED IT UP JUST SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...
THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS OVER THE GULF REMAINS SIGNIFICANT...SINCE
IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL
MIGRATE FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD TO CURVE
RITA NORTHWARD AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN
FORECAST A STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS...WHILE THE
GFS AND GFDL FORECAST A NORTHWARD BEND TOWARD THE TEXAS/LOUSIANA
BORDER REGION. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...IT MUST AGAIN BE EMPHASIZED
THAT FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE QUITE LARGE AT THESE LONGER LEAD TIMES.

EVEN THOUGH RITA IS NOT YET A HURRICANE...CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR IT TO BECOME ONE SOON...PRIOR TO REACHING THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTENSIFICATION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO APPEARS PROBABLE...GIVEN THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO DOMINATE THE AREA
AND PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY...OCEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM IN THE GULF...AND NOT JUST AT THE
SURFACE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH DAY 3...THEN CALLING FOR A PEAK AT 105
KT OVER THE GULF IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE
GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST AN EVEN STRONGER HURRICANE OVER
THE GULF...AND THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 23.3N 76.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 23.7N 78.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 24.2N 80.9W 85 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 24.6N 83.5W 95 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 24.9N 85.9W 100 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 25.5N 90.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 30.0N 96.0W 70 KT...INLAND


$$

000
WTNT33 KNHC 200245
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA ALMOST TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES ANDROS
ISLAND...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR FLORIDA WEST COAST...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND FROM
GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE
SABLE THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A
HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS
WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL
RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT
120 MILES... 195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT
270 MILES... 430 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER
OR JUST SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT RITA IS GETTING
BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED STATION ON ANDROS ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...23.3 N... 77.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$

000
WTNT43 KNHC 200306
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

RITA REMAINS JUST UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE STORM PRODUCED A
MASSIVE BURST OF COLD CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE
EVENING...AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN INCREASE IN BANDING.
HOWEVER...THIS INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION HAS NOT YET PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 59 KT 39 N MI
NORTHWEST OF OF THE CENTER...AND A CENTER DROPSONDE OF 992 MB WITH
33 KT SURFACE WINDS. BASED ON THE THIS...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990 MB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/12...UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE THE SHORT-TERM MOTION SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE TO THE
LEFT. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FOR THE FIRST 72 HR. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER RITA ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK...AND ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
THIS SCENARIO. AFTER 72 HR...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE
HANDLING OF THE GULF COAST RIDGE. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP THE
RIDGE SOMEWHAT FARTHER WEST...THUS FORECASTING RITA TO MOVE INTO
THE LOWER OR MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS IN 4-5 DAYS TIME. THE GFDL AND
GFS CALL FOR THE RIDGE TO MOVE FATHER EASTWARD AND FORECAST RITA TO
MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE FORECAST
TRACK AFTER 72 HR WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...
CALLING FOR A LANDFALL ON THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THE TRACK AFTER
72 HR IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DUE TO
THE MODEL SPREAD.

UP TO NOW...RITA HAS HAD PROBLEMS DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED INNER
CORE. THIS MIGHT BE DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. OTHER THAN THAT...
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND IT IS LIKELY
THAT RITA WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...
ALTHOUGH STRONGER THAN BOTH. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO FORECAST VERY
RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE VERY WARM
WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SO FAR THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED...BUT
THE GFDL COULD BE RIGHT IF RITA ESTABLISHES A BETTER INNER CORE.
THERE IS THUS A POSSIBILITY THAT RITA COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BEFORE PASSING THE FLORIDA KEYS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE GFDL CALLS FOR RITA TO PEAK IN 24 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS
THE STORM FOR THE REST OF THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO BEING LESS THAN THOSE IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...EXCEPT IN THE LOOP CURRENT.

THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE REVISED BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 23.3N 77.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 23.7N 79.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 24.2N 82.1W 85 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 24.5N 84.9W 95 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 24.8N 87.4W 100 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 25.5N 91.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 27.5N 94.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 30.5N 96.0W 60 KT...INLAND

11 P.M. EDT 9/19/2005 TROPICAL STORM RITA UPDATE #13

This is an independent product

Tropical Storm Rita is almost a hurricane and should be one soon. Rita is expected to pass between Key West and Cuba, possibly bringing the nrothern eye wall to Key West. This would place the keys in the most dangerous right front quadrant and Cuba in the south quadrant, which is also intense according to aircraft data. Currently, Rita has cleared the central Bahamas and is moving toward the NW Bahamas and Florida Keys. Storm preparations in the NW Bahamas should be completed and should be completed by tomorrow morning in the Florida Keys and north Cuba.

Rita is expected to be a very dangerous hurricane when it moves through the Florida Keys. Please comply with any and all orders given by local emergency management officials, especially evacuation orders. It is up to you to prevent a repeat of Katrina.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for all of the Florida Keys, the NW Bahamas, and the north coast of Cuba from 80 to 83W, a Hurricane Watch/Tropical Storm Warning for Dade County, Florida, a Hurricane Watch for the Florida East Coast south of Palm Beach to the Dade/Broward Line, and the Florida West Coast south of Naples. As always, these are only recommendations. The official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or local emergency management officials.


Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Rita is located near 23.3N and 77.8W. This places the center about 270 miles ESE of Key West. The motion is to the west near 15 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue, bringing the system close to Key West sometime between 5 and 8 p.m. tomorrow.

Maximum winds are now near 70 m.p.h. The pressure is 992mb. Rita is showing signs of finally starting to intensify and is expected to become a hurricane soon and a category 2 hurricane when it makes its closest approach to Key West.

Next Update: 2 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA MOVING FASTER...BUT STILL A TROPICAL STORM...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND FROM GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A
HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS
WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL
RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT
200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL BE
PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. REPORTS FROM RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS
NOT STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...RITA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...23.6 N... 78.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTNT33 KNHC 200851
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WARNINGS FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR ANDROS ISLAND TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND FROM GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS
WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL
RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES... 255 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL BE
PASSING NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AROUND MIDDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. REPORTS FROM RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT RITA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES
...195 KM FROM THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6
TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...23.7 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 20, 2005



the radar presentation of Rita is slowly becoming better defined...
but the cyclone still lacks a clear and persistent eyewall
signature. Flight-level and dropsonde observations from the Air
Force reconaissance aircraft still do not quite support upgrading
Rita to a hurricane. A peak 700 mb flight-level wind of 72 kt winds
would correspond to 65 kt in an eyewall...but Rita does not have a
true eyewall and dropsonde data indicate that 90 percent is not the
appropriate adjustment with this storm at this time. The intensity
will be held at 60 kt at this time.
Rita remains basically on track...with an initial motion of 285/13.
Little change has been made to the official forecast in the early
going...as Rita moves south of mid-level high pressure through the
Florida Straits. Late in the forecast period...the GFS...UKMET...
and GFDL models have shifted westward toward the middle Texas
coast...while the NOGAPS is still on the south end of the guidance
envelope in extreme south Texas. The official forecast is adjusted
a little westward toward the dynamical model consensus. At this
point it is way to early to specify where the Gulf landfall might
occur.
Rita is still expected to reach hurricane strength very soon. The
upper-level flow pattern is favorable for strengthening but not
overly so...with outflow a little squashed to the north and
non-existent to the south...and the upper anticyclone located well
to the east of the center. Even the radar presentation looks
elongated. Steady...but not explosive development is likely during
the next 12 to 24 hours. The upper pattern could improve somewhat
in the Gulf of Mexico and Rita is still forecast to become a major
hurricane. The most recent SHIPS guidance...however...does not
quite get Rita there...and I would not be shocked if Rita ends up
falling just short of that threshold.
Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 20/0900z 23.7n 79.5w 60 kt
12hr VT 20/1800z 24.1n 81.7w 70 kt
24hr VT 21/0600z 24.4n 84.4w 80 kt
36hr VT 21/1800z 24.6n 87.0w 90 kt
48hr VT 22/0600z 24.7n 89.3w 95 kt
72hr VT 23/0600z 25.5n 93.0w 100 kt
96hr VT 24/0600z 28.5n 96.0w 100 kt
120hr VT 25/0600z 32.5n 97.5w 35 kt...inland

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ABOUT TO REACH RITA...WILL DETERMINE IF IT
IS A HURRICANE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND FROM GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS
WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL
RIO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES
...160 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL BE
PASSING NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AROUND MIDDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6
TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...23.8 N... 80.4 W. MOVEMENT
BETWEEN...WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA BECOMES THE NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND FROM GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS
WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...ALL WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED AND FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM DEERFIELD BEACH
FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120
KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CITY OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN THE CITY OF HAVANA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
TODAY. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
EYEWALL ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
DIRECTLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 120 MILES...195 KM. SOMBRERO KEY RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 59 MPH...95 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 72 MPH...117 KM/HR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS..CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALLAMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENNISULA. RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.

THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...23.8 N... 81.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$
NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

RITA HAS BECOME THE NINTH HURRICANE OF THE 2005 SEASON. DATA FROM
DOPPLER RADAR FROM KEY WEST...SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT RITA HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. DOPPLER RADAR PEAK
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 90 AND
95 KNOTS WITH AN ISOLATED PEAK OF 100 KNOTS...AND DROPSONDES IN THE
EYEWALL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. THE PRESSURE HAS
DECREASED TO 982 MB...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED
WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. BOTH THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THE OCEAN BELOW RITA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GRADUALLY BRINGS
THE WINDS UP BUT...IT DOES NOT INCLUDE THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT
TO FORECAST. RITA WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO GO UP AND DOWN IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.

RITA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS SINCE IT IS
ALREADY SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THERAFTER...THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS FORECAST PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORCE RITA
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THIS IS ONE THE CASES
OF RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE MOST OF
THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW
JUST THE SKINNY BLACK LINE...IT IS ALWAYS GOOD TO REMIND THEM THAT
3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE LARGE.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 23.8N 81.0W 75 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 24.0N 83.1W 80 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 24.3N 85.8W 85 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 24.5N 88.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 90.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 26.0N 94.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 29.5N 96.4W 65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/1200Z 33.5N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND

000
WTNT63 KNHC 201711
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

DATA FROM A NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED 100 MH WINDS
AND IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY AT 2 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT33 KNHC 201736
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA REACHES 100 MPH WINDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD
TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST
COAST.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY HAS BEEN DOWGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80
KM...SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...
NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN THE CITY OF HAVANA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
TODAY. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN EYEWALL
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS DIRECTLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE REACHED 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 120 MILES...195 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS..CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALLAMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENNISULA. RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.

THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...23.9 N... 81.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

000
WTNT43 KNHC 201737
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES INDICATE THAT
RITA HAS REACHED 100 MPH WINDS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REFLECT
A CHANGE IN BOTH INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY. THERE IS NO CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1800Z 23.9N 81.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 24.0N 83.1W 95 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 24.3N 85.8W 105 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 24.5N 88.3W 105 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 90.5W 105 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 26.0N 94.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 29.5N 96.4W 65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/1200Z 33.5N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND

3 P.M. EDT 9/20/2005 HURRICANE RITA UPDATE #19

This is an independent product

Rita is producing severe tidal flooding in the lower Keys. U.S. 1 is impassible in many locations and homes are flooding. The eye is currently passing about 40-45 miles south of Key West and the eye wall may also miss the island; however, hurricane force winds and a damaging tidal surge is likely this afternoon.

In the Florida Keys, tidal flooding may reach 7 feet and winds at Key West may gust over 90 m.p.h.

Continue to comply with any and all orders given by local emergency management officials.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for all of the Florida Keys and the north coast of Cuba from 80 to 83W. NWHHC continues to recommend a Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of Florida south of Palm Beach and now for the west coast of Florida south of Naples. NWHHC no longer recommends any other watches or warnings. As always, these are only recommendations. The official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or local emergency management officials. In addition, there are flood and severe weather watches and warnings in effect. Click Here to access a local National Weather Service Office for more information in your area.

Residents of the western Gulf of Mexico need to monitor the progress of Rita very closely during the week as it is has the potential to make landfall as a category 4 hurricane late this week.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Rita is located near 23.9N and 81.9W. This places the center about 45 miles south of Key West. The motion is to the west near 15 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue. Rita is making its closest pass to Key West now. As the winds switch to a southerly direction is when the highest tidal surge will occur.

Maximum winds have increased to 100 m.p.h. The pressure is 976mb. Continued intensification is expected during the next few days and Rita is now forecast to become a category 4 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

Next Update: 5 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA PASSING SOUTH OF KEY WEST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST. THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY AS RITA MOVES FARTHER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NORTH OF FLORIDA
CITY AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 55 MILES...90
KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK
WILL BRING RITA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. SAND KEY JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60
MPH...97 KM/HR AND A GUST OF 92 MPH...148 KM/HR. VARADERO CUBA
MEASURED GUSTS TO 60 MPH...90 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
973 MB...28.73 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST....BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS EVENING.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...EXCEPT UP TO 20 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...24.0 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 973 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

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