3 P.M. EDT 9/27/2005 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

This is an independent product

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean 150 miles south of Jamaica has become better organized and is approaching tropical depression status. Recon is scheduled to fly into this area tomorrow if necessary. Even if this system does not develop heavy rainfall is likely over the western Caribbean islands. Residents of these islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.

Forecaster: Cangialosi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271502
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST
OF JAMAICA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN
JAMAICA... THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

SPECIAL FEATURE...

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF CUBA WITH
A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY
42058 SUGGEST THERE IS A WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WITH
WLY WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED...THOUGH THOSE WINDS ARE LIKELY
ENHANCED BY DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING ON THE N
SIDE OF THE WAVE WITH SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW. THIS AREA HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS. A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE WNW IS LIKELY... PLACING THE
SYSTEM IN THE W CARIBBEAN LATE WED/EARLY THU. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13.5N-17.5N BETWEEN 74W-78W. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.

Convection has decreased over the last hour over the LLC...I do not expect it to be upgraded to a tropcial depression over the next 12 to 24 hours. What is going for it is a Anticyclone has developed. With 5 knot decreases... It may develop once over the western Caribbean.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 272129
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER JAMAICA... PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA... AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY.
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA... THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... AND ELSEWHERE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS... SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 20N WITH A
1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N MOVING WNW NEAR 12 KT.
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE E NEAR 16N74W. THIS AREA HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIED DOWN TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REGENERATE LATER THIS MORNING.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281619
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2005

CORRECTED TYPOS

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM JAMAICA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING... AND A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
ALSO INCREASED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.
THE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED. HOWEVER... ANOTHER AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING... IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

000
ABNT20 KNHC 282128
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEAS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HONDURAS. THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW
MORNING... IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291507
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR FRIDAY AS IT MOVES
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

CORRECTED AWIPS BIN NUMBER FROM 4 TO 5

...TWENTIETH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING ISSUED FOR THE YUCATAN...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

AT 10 AM CDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO
CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 125 MILES... 205 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO AND
ABOUT 110 MILES... 175 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH
... 9 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE
FORMATIVE STAGE... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK... THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS... AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
ENROUTE TO ASSESS THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 85.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART



000
WTNT45 KNHC 011503
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005

SATELLITE DATA AND SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY FESTERING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS HAS FINALLY
ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE EXACT
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE... BUT WIND AND
PRESSURE REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42056 SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF THE BUOY LOCATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON NOAA BUOY WIND REPORTS RANGING FROM
23 TO 27 KT OVER THE PAST 9 HOURS. TWO SHIPS NEAR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AT 01/06Z ALSO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 28-32 KT.
HOWEVER... QUALITY CONTROL CHECKS BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER INDICATE THAT THOSE WINDS WERE LIKELY 3-5 KT HIGH.
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE... AND SO HAS THE
OUTFLOW PATTERN. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/05. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AT BEST... BUT THE
SLOWLY BACKING WIND PROFILE AT NOAA BUOY 42056 SUGGESTS THAT THE
CENTER IS SOMEWHERE NEARBY. THE AVAILABLE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE BROAD BUT WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST REMAINS INTACT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE 3 BAM MODELS... PLUS THE GFS AND
UKMET SOLUTIONS.

THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 4
DAYS IS LAND INTERACTION. AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN 18-30 HOURS... INCREASED FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP THE RATHER LOOSE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD... AND
THIS SHOULD AID IN THE QUICK REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ONCE
THE SYSTEM EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 36
HOURS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 5 KT OR LESS
WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER 29-30C SSTS. WITH A VERY FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW PATTERN FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS... THIS SYSTEM
COULD EASILY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT MAKES A SECOND
LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. EXCLUDING LAND INTERACTION...
THE SHIPS MODEL INCREASES THE INTENSITY TO 88 KT BY 96 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 19.3N 85.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 19.9N 86.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 20.8N 88.8W 25 KT...INLAND YUCATAN
36HR VT 03/0000Z 21.7N 90.7W 30 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 03/1200Z 22.5N 92.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 23.4N 95.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 23.5N 98.5W 40 KT...INLAND NERN MEXICO
120HR VT 06/1200Z 23.0N 101.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND


$$

000
WTNT35 KNHC 011742
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

...DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 125 MILES... 205 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO AND
ABOUT 110 MILES... 175 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN STATIONERY... BUT A MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR... IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE DEPRESSION
IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY
OCCUR. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT
OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS... AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. DURING THE PAST HOUR... NOAA BUOY 42056 LOCATED NORTH OF
THE CENTER BRIEFLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 MPH...58 KM/HR.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO
BETTER ASSESS THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 85.8 W. MOVEMENT
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT35 KNHC 012042
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO
CAMPECHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE
86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES... 155 KM... SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO
AND ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... BUT A FASTER MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR... IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER... THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO
SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS... AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. DURING THE PAST HOUR... NOAA BUOY 42056 LOCATED NORTH OF
THE CENTER BRIEFLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 34 MPH...54 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS
WESTERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...19.2 N... 86.5 W. MOVEMENT
DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT45 KNHC 012058
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005

AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON FOUND A SMALL SURFACE
CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF WHERE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THE LARGER-SCALE CENTER OF ROTATION IS LOCATED. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 42056 ALSO INDICATE VEERING SURFACE
WINDS... WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER SMALL-SCALE CIRCULATION MAY BE
PASSING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE BUOY. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB
SUGGEST THAT A BROADER CIRCULATION CENTER IS EITHER LOCATED OR
FORMING NORTHEAST OF THE VORTEX MESSAGE POSITION. THE ADVISORY
POSITION IS A COMPROMISE OF ALL THE SMALL SWIRLS AND LEANS MORE
TOWARD THE LARGE-SCALE ROTATION NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. HOWEVER... ANY ONE OF THE SMALLER
CIRCULATIONS COULD BECOME MORE DOMINANT IF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS
NEARBY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A 31-KT SUSTAINED
WIND REPORTED EARLIER BY NOAA BUOY 42056.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 255/05. THE VARIOUS
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE THE DEPRESSION VERY
WELL... ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS. HOWEVER... THE
GENERAL TREND IN ALL OF THE MODELS IS FOR THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MORE WESTWARD AND
SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION HAS RESULTED IN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE
BAM MODELS... AND AS RESULT... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ALSO
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE UNTIL A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER DEVELOPS.

EXCLUDING LAND INTERACTION... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO
OCCUR. THE SHIPS MODEL INCREASES THE INTENSITY TO 86 KT BY 72 HOURS
AND 94 KT BY 96 HOURS DUE TO VERY WARM SSTS AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR.
THE 12Z GFDL MODEL LOSES THE CYCLONE BY 24 HOURS... WHICH IS NOT
UNUSUAL FOR SYSTEMS THAT ARE INITIALIZED WITH 25 KT WINDS. THE 18Z
GFDL WILL LIKELY BE MORE ROBUST SINCE IT WAS INITIALIZED WITH 30 KT
SURFACE WINDS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 19.2N 86.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 19.8N 87.9W 35 KT...INLAND ERN YUCATAN
24HR VT 02/1800Z 20.4N 89.8W 25 KT...INLAND WRN YUCATAN
36HR VT 03/0600Z 21.0N 91.8W 35 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 03/1800Z 21.4N 93.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.6N 96.2W 65 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 21.0N 99.0W 30 KT...INLAND ERN MEXICO
120HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$

575
WTNT35 KNHC 012348
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO
CAMPECHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 130 KM... SOUTHEAST OF
TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM...SOUTH OF COZUMEL
MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING WESTWARD... BUT A FASTER MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR... IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO SOME ERRATIC
MOTION MAY OCCUR. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS... AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT. DURING
THE PAST HOUR... NOAA BUOY 42056 LOCATED NORTH OF THE CENTER
BRIEFLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH...53 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS
WESTERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...19.2 N... 86.7 W. MOVEMENT
DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

WTNT35 KNHC 020234
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

...CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY APPROACHING THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO
CAMPECHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST
OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO
AND ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...SOUTH OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION
IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY STILL
OCCUR.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL. SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS
WESTERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

I have been waiting for this announcement,, I thought she was TD#20 last night,,, she is almost TS Tammy already,, The NWS/TPC sure waited a while,,, :blink:

646
WTNT45 KNHC 020247
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY REMAINS BROAD THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN A
POORLY CURVED BAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND IMPROVING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE CENTER IS A LITTLE HARD TO FIND IN INFRARED IMAGERY...SO THE
INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/5. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND EVENING RAWINSONDE DATA SHOWS LOW/MID/LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF
THE DEPRESSION...WHICH IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK. AFTER 24-36 HR...A MID/
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE WESTERN
GULF COAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO TURN WESTWARD OR
EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER THAT...THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN AS THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF FORECASTS OF
HOW THE PATTERN AROUND THE DEPRESSION WILL EVOLVE. SOME MODELS
STALL THE DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE OTHERS MOVE
IT INTO MEXICO. OTHERS DISSIPATE IT AS A NEW SYSTEM FORMS EAST OF
THE DEPRESSION IN THE CARIBBEAN...OR NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION
ALONG A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY OF
MOVING THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO... ALBEIT AT A
SLOWER SPEED THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS WILL HAPPEN IS DECREASING.

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR WHILE
THE CYCLONE IS OVER WATER...AS VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BRIEFLY
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON YUCATAN...
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER LAND AND RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. EVEN WITH LAND INTERACTION...SHIPS CALLS FOR THE
SYSTEM TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HR AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFDL RUN DOES NOT
STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE ABOVE 40 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES
THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO AFTER
LANDFALL IN ABOUT 84 HR. SHOULD THAT LANDFALL NOT OCCUR OR BE
DELAYED...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 19.3N 87.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 19.7N 88.2W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 03/0000Z 20.3N 90.2W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 03/1200Z 20.8N 92.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 04/0000Z 21.0N 93.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 20.5N 96.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 20.0N 98.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED


There is no quastion that 19 should of been upgraded to Stan. The nhc is putting all the weight on a t number 3 hours old. This should be Tammy.

000
WTNT65 KNHC 020713
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM STAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

AT 200 AM CDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO EXTENDED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO CHETUMAL. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL
NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL STORM STAN FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...

AT ABOUT 120 AM CDT... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY HAD INCREASED TO 45 MPH. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STAN... THE 18TH NAMED STORM OF
THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. STAN IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

000
WTNT35 KNHC 020854
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

...TROPICAL STORM STAN MAKING LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO
CAMPECHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST... ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM... SOUTH OF
TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
COZUMEL MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STAN WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR MOST OF TODAY... BUT IS EXPECTED TO
EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE
MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... BUT IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM SOON AFTER EMERGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165
KM... MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...19.6 N... 87.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

000
WTNT45 KNHC 020906
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ATTAINED TROPICAL STORM STATUS JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS BASED ON 850 MB
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 50 KT WITHIN A BAND OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER... WHICH IS
CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF WEAK WINDS. THE FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 40 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE FELL TO ABOUT 1003 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
CENTER IS NOW MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF TULUM... SO THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT... BUT STAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE
SPENDING ALMOST THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER LAND. CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES A HURRICANE
BY 72 HOURS... IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AFTER ACCOUNTING
FOR INTERACTION WITH LAND IN THE SHORT TERM.

STAN CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT... ALTHOUGH
THIS IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN SPECIFYING THE
EXACT CENTER OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ONLY A LITTLE SLOWER
LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO A LACK OF MODELS ACTUALLY SHOWING FINAL
LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. THIS SOLUTION IS FOLLOWED
FOR CONTINUITY AND SINCE THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEYOND 48
HOURS ARE SO DIVERSE. THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH RIDGING OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO FORCE STAN WESTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 19.6N 87.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 20.1N 88.9W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 03/0600Z 20.7N 90.9W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 21.0N 92.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 20.9N 94.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 20.5N 96.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 20.0N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTNT45 KNHC 021456
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005

SHIP REPORTS FROM EIJV AND ZCAM4 JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF
THE YUCATAN...AS WELL AS A QUIKSCAT PASS...INDICATE THAT EVEN
THOUGH STAN IS MOVING INLAND IT IS MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS IN BANDS STILL OFFSHORE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED
ON THESE DATA. ALTHOUGH STAN COULD MAINTAIN THESE WINDS DURING ITS
PASSAGE OVER LAND...OFFSHORE FLOW MAKES IT UNLIKELY THAT THESE
WINDS WOULD BE FELT ALONG THE NORTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN.
FOR THIS REASON THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOT BEING UPGRADED TO A
WARNING AT THIS TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAUGE BUT BELIEVED TO BE 290/6. AS A
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS
OUT...RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE
MAINTAINED AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THIS
SHOULD GRADUALLY BEND THE TRACK OF STAN TO THE LEFT AND TAKE IT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS STAN APPROACHES THE MEXICAN
COAST...HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE MOTION COULD
SLOW...BOTH BECAUSE IT WOULD BE NEARING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND BECAUSE OF A POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH
A DISTUBANCE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

ONCE IN THE GULF...STAN SHOULD HAVE A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY TO
STRENGTHEN...WITH WARM WATERS...LIGHT SHEAR...AND UPPER
ANTICYCLONIC SUPPORT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE DECAY SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 19.8N 88.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 20.2N 89.3W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 03/1200Z 20.8N 91.4W 40 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 04/0000Z 21.0N 93.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 20.7N 95.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 20.5N 97.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 20.0N 99.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM STAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

...STAN BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO
CAMPECHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST... ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 35 MILES... 60 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TULUM MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STAN WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR MOST OF TODAY... BUT IS EXPECTED TO
EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE
MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... BUT IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM SOON AFTER EMERGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165
KM... MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...19.7 N... 87.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTNT35 KNHC 021743
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM STAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

...STAN MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...COASTAL WARNINGS
LOWERED...

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE
88.7 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 130 KM... SOUTHEAST OF MERIDA MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS OVER WATER WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. STAN COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE THE
CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER TONIGHT. STAN IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN ONCE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES
...195 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...20.2 N... 88.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTNT35 KNHC 022031
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

...STAN CONTINUES TO CROSS THE YUCATAN...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 85 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19
KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS OVER WATER WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. STAN COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE THE
CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER TONIGHT. ONCE IT REACHES THE WARM
WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...STAN IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES
...195 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND FAR WESTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...20.7 N... 89.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTNT45 KNHC 022032
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10...A BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE. THERE HAS
BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. AS A
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS OUT...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE
MAINTAINED AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THIS SHOULD
GRADUALLY BEND THE TRACK OF STAN TO THE LEFT AND TAKE IT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS STAN APPROACHES THE MEXICAN COAST...
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE MOTION COULD SLOW AS STAN NEARS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGESTS THAT WITH THIS SLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
COULD DECOUPLE FROM THE CIRCULATION ALOFT NEAR LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET GUIDANCE.

THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL SHIP REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TO BE SAFE I WILL PRESUME THAT SUCH
WINDS STILL EXIST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER...WHERE THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN...HENCE THE LOWERING OF THE WARNINGS. ONCE
IN THE GULF...STAN SHOULD HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN...
WITH WARM WATERS...LIGHT SHEAR...AND UPPER ANTICYCLONIC SUPPORT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 20.7N 89.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 21.1N 90.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 21.3N 93.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 21.1N 94.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 21.0N 96.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 20.5N 98.0W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTNT35 KNHC 030242
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

...STAN WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...BUT LIKELY TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING
AGAIN SOON...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES...85 KM...SOUTHWEST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO IN A FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN SQUALLS OVER WATER WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
STAN IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...20.8 N... 90.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

000
WTNT45 KNHC 030240
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005

STAN HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETED ITS TRANSIT OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT...FOR NOW...
THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
NONETHELESS...THE SYSTEM RETAINS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES. A PROMINENT
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE IS SITUATED OVER STAN...AND VERTICAL SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ONCE THE
CENTER MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE SURFACE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST 30 DEG C...STRENGTHENING IS HIGHLY
LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/9. THE FLOW SOUTH OF A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.
THIS WOULD TAKE THE CENTER NEAR OR ACROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN
2-3 DAYS. THERE IS...HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL COMPLICATION TO THE
TRACK FORECAST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...AND INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID- TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WITHIN ROUGHLY 72
HOURS. THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOON ENOUGH TO
INFLUENCE STAN'S TRACK...AND DELAY ITS LANDFALL. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE MODELS ALSO TAKE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SLOWER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT FASTER THAN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE. HOPEFULLY...AN ADDITIONAL SLOWING OF THIS FORECAST WILL
NOT BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 20.8N 90.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 21.0N 91.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 21.0N 93.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 20.7N 94.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 20.4N 95.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 20.0N 97.0W 55 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 07/0000Z 19.5N 98.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATED
120HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTNT35 KNHC 030900
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT MON OCT 03 2005

...STAN REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH....
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF GULF COAST OF MEXICO...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO
ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST OR ABOUT 385
MILES... 615 KM... EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 320 MILES... 510
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH... 17 KM/HR... AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...20.5 N... 91.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

000
WTNT45 KNHC 030902
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2005

THE CENTER OF STAN EMERGED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AT ABOUT 0430Z. SHORTLY THEREAFTER AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE FLEW INTO THE CENTER AND MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 1003 MB... THEN 1002 MB ON A MORE RECENT PENETRATION. MAXIMUM
850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 43 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER... IN THE BAND OF CONVECTION EMANATING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE USING
THE 80 PERCENT REDUCTION...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 35 KT AT THE
SURFACE. ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN BURSTING NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD SOON BE
OCCURRING THERE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT... MAKING
STAN A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN.

THE AIRCRAFT LOCATED THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION... AND THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION
IS NOW WESTWARD... 270/9. A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS
TO THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER STAN TOWARD THE WEST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WITH AN EVENTUAL SLIGHT BEND SOUTH
OF WEST AND A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE THAT ENOUGH RIDGING WILL PERSIST TO TAKE STAN ALL THE WAY
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HOWEVER... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
COMPLICATING FACTORS... INCLUDING INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN AS
STAN APPROACHES THE COAST... A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC... AND LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... COULD CAUSE A SLOWER MOTION THAN
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT DUE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION.

STAN IS NOW OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO... AND IS BENEATH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AS DEPICTED
IN GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO STRENGTHENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
TO DIVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 48 HOURS AND ERODE
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...BUT THE SHEAR WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE IN
TIME TO WEAKEN STAN BEFORE FINAL LANDFALL. ACCORDINGLY THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE DIAGNOSES WEAK SHEAR AND FORECASTS A 65 KT HURRICANE
APPROACHING THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO SHIPS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE NEW FORECAST REQUIRES A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 20.5N 91.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 92.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 20.4N 94.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 20.2N 95.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 20.0N 96.3W 70 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 19.5N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTNT45 KNHC 031458
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2005

THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED FOR 18Z. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE HAS BEEN A MARKED INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. A STATION ON CAYOS ARCAS VERY NEAR
THE PRESUMED CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 997 MB. BECAUSE
THE OVERNIGHT AIRCRAFT FOUND VERY LITTLE WIND NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING INCREASED TO 40
KT AT THIS TIME. IT IS ALSO UNCLEAR JUST HOW CLOSE THE CENTER IS
TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. IN ANY EVENT...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH LIGHT SHEAR...
GOOD OUTFLOW...AND WARM WATER. I ASSUME THE WIND FIELD IS IN THE
PROCESS OF CONTRACTING IN RESPONSE TO THE CHANGES IN THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN...AND ONCE THIS OCCURS A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION RATE
COULD OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A BIT MORE
DEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE. THE GFDL MODEL IS NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC...AND THIS COULD
BE DUE TO ISSUES...EITHER REAL OR IMAGINED...WITH TOPOGRAPHY HAVING
A NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON THE CYCLONE'S STRUCTURE NEAR LANDFALL.

THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET ALL MAINTAIN ENOUGH
RIDGING IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO TAKE STAN...OR AT
LEAST ITS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...INLAND INTO MEXICO. MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE SLOWS OR STALLS THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HOWEVER. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN AS STAN APPROACHES
THE COAST COULD CAUSE A SLOWER MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

ALTHOUGH LANDFALL IS NOT FORECAST FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS...TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
CENTER. THIS IS THE REASON FOR ISSUING THE HURRICANE WARNING AT
THIS TIME.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 20.4N 92.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 20.2N 93.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 20.0N 94.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 19.8N 95.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 19.5N 96.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 19.0N 97.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM STAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT MON OCT 03 2005

...STAN ORGANIZING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE....

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST OR ABOUT 355
MILES... 570 KM... EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH... 17 KM/HR... AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT STAN IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...20.4 N... 91.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$

000
WTNT35 KNHC 031748
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM STAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2005

...STAN MEANDERING AS IT STRENGTHENS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST OR ABOUT 330
MILES... 535 KM... EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 265 MILES... 430
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

STAN HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER...A MOTION
TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 MPH... 90 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
STAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO THE CENTER OF
STAN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...20.3 N... 92.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 55 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$

000
WTNT35 KNHC 032039
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2005

...STAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL
LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 240
MILES... 385 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND STAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...20.0 N... 92.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTNT45 KNHC 032039
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2005

ALTHOUGH THE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS...FROM 700 MB DUE TO AIRSPACE
RESTRICTIONS...WERE ONLY 41 KT...DROPSONDES IN THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 50 KT...WHICH
WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. STAN HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP COLD
CONVECTION SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THUS FAR THE CONVECTION
HAS BEEN RESTRICTED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
STILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING...WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL NOW TAKING STAN UP TO 92 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE GFDL
CONTINUES TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THIS
GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WIND FIELDS FROM
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SOME DECOUPLING OF THE MID
AND LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS COULD OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF
LANDFALL...AND IF THIS OCCURS I WOULD EXPECT SOME LAST MINUTE
WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER.

EARLIER IN THE DAY STAN MOVED LITTLE...WITH THE CENTER LAGGING
PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT FIX SUGGESTS THAT A GENERALLY
WESTWARD MOTION HAS RESUMED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASED ON A
LONGER-TERM AVERAGE AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE 255/6. MODEL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NORTH
OF STAN. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS BRACKETED BY THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS...WHICH TAKE STAN WESTWARD TO A LANDFALL IN 36 TO 48
HOURS...AND THE GFDL...WHICH TAKES STAN SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A
LANDFALL IN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES...CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS...AND
A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 20.0N 92.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 19.7N 93.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 19.4N 94.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 19.2N 95.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 19.1N 95.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 19.0N 97.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

4 P.M. CDT 10/3/2005 TROPICAL STORM STAN UPDATE #13

This is an independent product

Stan intensifies some more and is expected to become a hurricane by tomorrow morning and could become a category 2 or 3 before final landfall.

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane WARNING from Tuxpan to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane Watch from Tampico to Tuxpan As always, these are only recommendations. The official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Comply with all orders given by local emergency management officials. Failure to do so may cost you your life.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Stan is located near 20.0N and 92.6W. This places the center about 240 miles ENE of Veracruz, Mexico. The motion is to the WSW near 7 m.p.h. A west to WSW track is expected to continue until landfall, whcih is expected early on Wednesday. However, the tropical storm force winds will arrive much sooner.

Maximum winds are near 50 m.p.h. The pressure is 996mb Stan is expected to become a hurricane within the next 12-24 hours, and has the potential to make landfall as a category 2 or 3 hurricane.

Next Update: 7 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

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000
WTNT35 KNHC 032343
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM STAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2005

...STAN MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST OR ABOUT 210
MILES... 340 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
STAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...20.1 N... 93.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

000
WTNT35 KNHC 040236
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2005

...STAN STRENGTHENING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE SOON...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST OR ABOUT 190
MILES... 305 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND STAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY
EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.9 N... 93.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

000
WTNT45 KNHC 040238
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2005

THERE HAS BEEN NO AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE OF STAN OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE NEXT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR AROUND 0500Z.
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR/OVER THE
ESTIMATED CENTER BUT NO WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES ARE EVIDENT.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT IN ACCORD WITH THE LATEST DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE STATISTICAL RAPID INTENSITY
INDEX SHOWS A 49 PER CENT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...
DEFINED AS AN INCREASE OF 25 KT OVER 24 HOURS. MY OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS PROBABLY A CONSERVATIVE ONE. THE INTENSITY
PREDICTION BEYOND 36 HOURS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF
INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.

WITHOUT THE AIRCRAFT...THE CENTER LOCATION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/06. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR
ANOTHER 2 DAYS OR SO. THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER STAN ACROSS THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.
HOWEVER A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF COULD COMPLICATE THE STEERING PATTERN. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT STAN COULD BECOME VERTICALLY DECOUPLED WHEN IT REACHES THE
COAST...AND THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL PART OF THE CIRCULATION DRAGGED
EASTWARD INTO THE ABOVEMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES. THE TRACK MODELS
HAVE BECOME DIVERGENT AND SOME...E.G. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND NOGAPS...DO NOT A LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IS INCREASING.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 19.9N 93.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 19.7N 94.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 19.4N 94.8W 75 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 19.1N 95.5W 85 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 18.9N 96.0W 85 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/0000Z 18.5N 96.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$