000
WTPZ25 KNHC 280836
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
0900Z WED SEP 28 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.4W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.4W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.1N 106.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.3N 107.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 21.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 22.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 105.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 280903
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2005

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ON THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO WERE T2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 06Z. THERE IS PLENTY OF
ROTATION IN THE MID LEVELS...AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BROAD
AREA OF SURFACE CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH THE TWO DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
EXACTLY CO-LOCATED. NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE
SURFACE CENTER IS ON OR NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS
TIME...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO CONSIDER THE
SYSTEM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION...USUALLY UNCERTAIN FOR FORMATIVE SYSTEMS...IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 270/6. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...BUT
THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW IS LESS WELL DEFINED. THIS RIDGE DOES NOT
EXTEND WESTWARD VERY FAR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND GLOBAL
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SERIES OF TROUGHS TO APPROACH THE BAJA
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST AN
OVERALL MOTION SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF A CLIMATOLOGICAL
285/11-TYPE TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER DIVERGENT...WITH THE
GFS TAKING A RELATIVELY STRONG SYSTEM MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP THE
CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST WITH A MUCH SLOWER INITIAL
MOTION. GIVEN THE PRESENT SHEARED APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION...I
THINK THE GFS SOLUTION IS TOO RAPID TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ATTEMPTS TO BLEND THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...AND IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE 18Z GFDL RUN...THE LAST RUN NOT TO DISSIPATE THE
SYSTEM.

GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY EASE UP OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO A SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST ROUGHLY
IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 17.0N 105.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 17.1N 106.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 17.3N 107.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 18.0N 108.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 19.0N 109.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 20.5N 111.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 21.5N 112.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 22.0N 113.5W 50 KT

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 281427
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED EVEN
THOUGH CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SOMEWHAT.
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS IMPROVED AND NEARBY SHIP REPORTS INDICATE
THE SURFACE WIND FIELD HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. AT 1200Z... SHIP
MCDW9 LOCATED 100 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND OF 24 KT AND SHIP MKYJ8 LOCATED 120 NMI WEST OF
THE CENTER REPORTED A NORTHWEST WIND OF 20 KT AND A PRESSURE OF
1006.8 MB. THESE OBSERVATIONS... ALONG WITH A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 1005 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/06. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
KEEP TD-15E MOVING IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE...
AND POSSIBLY EVEN DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
120 HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THE TIMING AND
DEGREE OF EROSION OF THE RIDGE. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS ARE THE
FASTEST AND STRONGEST WITH ERODING THE RIDGE...AND THOSE MODELS
RECURVE THE CYCLONE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 96-120 HOURS. IN
CONTRAST... THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...AND THE NOGAPS MODELS ARE
SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH EROSION OF THE RIDGE. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT DATA OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE RATHER WEAK
LOOKING APPEARANCE OF THE TROUGH IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AND ALSO
LEANS CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... WHICH TURNS THE
CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT
NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZED TD-15E VERY WELL... SO THERE
MAY BE SOME SIGNIFICANT TRACK CHANGES IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NEAR 20 KT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER 36 HOURS. IN THE 48-84 HOUR TIME
FRAME... THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 5 KT OR LESS... WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR SINCE THE
CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE OVER 28-29C SSTS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5... THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER... WHICH MAY
BRING ABOUT SOME SLOW WEAKENING. HOWEVER... IF THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST... IT WOULD REMAIN OVER 27-29C SSTS
... AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WOULD BE TOO LOW IN THE
LATER PERIODS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...BUT IS A LITTLE HIGHER AT 48H AND 72H.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 17.0N 105.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 17.3N 106.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 17.9N 108.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 18.7N 109.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 19.7N 111.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 21.0N 112.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 03/1200Z 24.5N 114.5W 55 KT

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 282017
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN TERMS OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD... AS NOTED IN 28/1302Z
QUIKSCAT WIND DATA. EVEN THOUGH THE DEPTH AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
HAS DECREASED SHARPLY SINCE THIS MORNING... THERE REMAINS A
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER IN THE
NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM
ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL REMAINS FAIR TO GOOD IN
ALL QUADRANTS... EXCEPT TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/06. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN AS A COUPLE OF SMALL VORTICES HAVE
BEEN NOTED ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
QUADRANTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAST FEW IMAGES... HOWEVER... SUGGEST
THAT THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION CENTER HAS PULLED UNDERNEATH THE
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CENTER... AND THAT WAS THE FEATURE USED TO
LOCATE THE CENTER OF TD-15E FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE BROAD EAST-WEST
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP TD-15E MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION. AFTERWARDS... ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL
MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG
SOUTHWARD FROM THE FAR NORTH PACIFIC AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE RIDGE. AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OR A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IN 72 TO 120 HOURS...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY
RESULT IN LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN
96-120 HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS REMAINS THE
TIMING AND DEGREE OF EROSION OF THE RIDGE. THE GFDL MODEL ROCKETS
THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD AND HAS IT OVER SOUTHERN UTAH IN 120 HOURS.
THIS IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER MODEL AT THIS TIME SINCE THE REMAINDER
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS MUCH SLOWER AND KEEPS THE CYCLONE OVER OR
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SINCE
THE GLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZED TD-15E QUITE WELL AT 12Z... THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS... ONLY SLOWER
DUE TO CONTAMINATION CAUSED BY THE MUCH FASTER GFDL MODEL.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND IS NOW ABOUT 15 KT
FROM THE NORTHEAST. BY 48 HOURS... THE SHEAR IS STILL FORECAST TO
DECREASE TO 5 KT OR LESS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER 28-29C SSTS. AS
A RESULT... INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IS FORECAST...
WHICH REMAINS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL... BUT SIMILAR
TO THE GFDL MODEL. BY DAYS 4 AND 5... THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER... DUE TO
THE SHARP SST-GRADIENT THAT EXISTS WITHIN 100 NMI OF THE WEST COAST
OF BAJA CALFIFORNIA... JUST A SLIGHT DEVIATION RIGHT/LEFT OF TRACK
COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER/LOWER INTENSITY AT 72 HOURS
THROUGH 120 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 17.1N 106.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 17.6N 107.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 18.3N 109.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 19.2N 110.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 20.1N 111.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 21.7N 112.9W 65 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 23.5N 114.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 26.0N 114.5W 45 KT

$$

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 290247
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E IS ALMOST TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
BURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WITH ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO PRODUCE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB
AND AFWA. ADDITIONALLY...A SHIP 125 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER REPORTED 30 KT. SINCE THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES IS BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THE SYSTEM REMAINS A
30 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/5. THE CYCLONE IS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ALONG 26N. THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...
AND CANADIAN MODELS INDICATE THIS RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN IN 36-48 HR
AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMS WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE
MODELS CALL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...PASSING NEAR OR OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET...THE ECMWF... AND THE
GFDN KEEP ENOUGH OF A RIDGE BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND THE TROUGH
TO MOVE THE DEPRESSION MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM
LAND. SINCE EVEN THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/
GFDL/NOGAPS/CANADIAN SOLUTION...CALLING FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
BY 24-36 HR AND A NORTHWARD MOTION BY 96-120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF
THE NORTHWARD-POINTING GUIDANCE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS.

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 15-20 KT OF
EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
AGREE THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE AS THE DEPRESSION APPROACHES THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING
BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 72 HR
OR SO. THE GFDL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24
HR...WHICH LOOKS A LITTLE UNLIKELY GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. THE SHIPS
MODEL CALLS FOR MUCH LESS INTENSIFICATION...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY
OF ABOUT 50 KT IN 60-72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BLEND THE
GFDL AND SHIPS...CALLING FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM IN 12 HR AND A HURRICANE IN 72 HR. AFTER 72 HR...COOL SSTS
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AFTER 72 HR THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING
ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE SST ISOTHERMS. THUS...ANY DEVIATION FROM
THE FORECAST TRACK COULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN HOW WARM/COOL
THE WATER IS UNDER THE CYCLONE.

THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE REVISED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BASED
ON THE SHIP REPORT.



FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 17.1N 107.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 17.5N 108.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 18.3N 109.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 19.2N 110.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 20.1N 111.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 22.0N 113.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 24.0N 114.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 04/0000Z 26.5N 114.5W 45 KT

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 290832
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2005

A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0130Z SUPPORTED AT LEAST 30 KT...WITH A COUPLE OF
UNCERTAIN 35 KT VECTORS IN CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.
SINCE THAT TIME THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER
OR VERY NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE 6Z CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T2.5...OR 35 KT. BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE
DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.

THE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL
MICROWAVE PASSES THAT SUGGEST A CENTER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF MY
ESTIMATED POSTION...BUT THESE MAY BE REFLECTING SWIRLS GENERATED IN
THE CONVECTION THAT THEN ROTATE COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND A BROADER
CIRCULATION. AT NIGHT I WOULD PREFER TO MAINTAIN MORE CONTINUITY
WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK THAN JUMP ON ONE OF THESE SWIRLS. EVEN
SO...THE TRACK DOES APPEAR TO HAVE TURNED TO THE RIGHT AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/5. OTIS REMAINS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BE
REPLACED BY A TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THAT OTIS WILL TURN NORTHWARD ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE
FORWARD SPEED OF OTIS AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THERE HASN'T BEEN MUCH CONSISTENCY
FROM RUN TO RUN. THE NOGAPS...WHICH HAD BEEN ONE OF THE SLOWER
MODELS PREVIOUSLY...IS NOW ONE OF THE FASTEST...WHILE THE
GFDL...WHICH HAD BEEN THE FASTEST...IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
PACK. SUCH ERRATIC BEHAVIOR IS A GOOD REASON TO STAY NEAR THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. ONLY THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL TURNS OTIS
AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA.

NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT OTIS...ALTHOUGH THIS SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO LESSEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SLOW STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A SOMEWHAT FASTER PACE
AFTER THAT. BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING SOUTHERLY
SHEAR AND/OR COOLER SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WEAKENING
TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL
GUIDANCE.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 17.5N 107.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 18.0N 108.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 18.9N 110.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 19.7N 111.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 20.5N 111.7W 65 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 22.1N 112.6W 65 KT
96HR VT 03/0600Z 24.5N 113.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 04/0600Z 27.5N 114.0W 35 KT...INLAND

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 292017
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2005

A WELL-DEFINED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN
ROTATING NORTH AND WESTWARD AT 20-25 KT AROUND THE EAST AND NORTH
SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION AND RESULTANT MOTION ARE BASED MAINLY ON THE LOCATION OF
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM SAB... 45 KT FROM TAFB... AND 35 KT FROM
SAB... RESPECTIVELY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN
UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 996 MB AND 52 KT AT 29/1545Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE STARTING
TO PULL UNDERNEATH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. AS
SUCH... A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO RESUME DURING
THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. OVERALL... THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING
REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL FORECAST DISCUSSIONS.
OTIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
A SHOTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE RIDGE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
OTIS TO TURN NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS AND POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 96-120 HOURS. THE
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO... AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND... AS A
RESULT... THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS IMPROVED AND BECOME MORE
CIRCULAR. A 25/1545Z SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED A 60 PERCENT MID-LEVEL
EYEWALL HAD FORMED...SO AT LEAST AN AVERAGE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT OTIS
WILL BE OVER 28.5-29C SSTS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS... A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR. BY AROUND 72
HOURS... OTIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS...
WHICH SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING... WITH FASTER WEAKENING
EXPECTED AFTER 96 HOURS WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 20 KT.

INTERESTS NEAR THE BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 18.9N 109.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 19.4N 110.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 20.1N 111.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 20.8N 111.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 21.5N 112.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 23.3N 113.1W 65 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 26.0N 114.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 29.5N 114.0W 35 KT...INLAND CENTRAL BAJA

$$

WTPZ35 KNHC 300232
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2005

...OTIS STRENGTHENING AND THREATENING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED...

AT 8 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE PACIFIC
COAST AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST OR ABOUT 210
MILES... 335 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF OTIS IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE
CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
OTIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...19.9 N...109.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2005

OTIS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN INFRARED IMAGERY THIS
EVENING...WITH CONVECTION NOW WRAPPING MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE
CENTER AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM SPOT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A
JUST RECEIVED SSM/I OVERPASS SHOWING A FORMATIVE EYE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM
AFWA. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR
ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 325/11...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT IS
UNCLEAR HOW MUCH MOTION IS DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER AS OTIS
CONSOLIDATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE NORTH OF OTIS ALONG 26N...WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN UTAH AND NEAR 33N126W. THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANDIAN
MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN...WITH OTIS BEING GRADUALLY
TURNED NORTHWARD BY THE WESTERN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A LARGER
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC BY
72 HR. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT OTIS
WILL NOT CONNECT WITH THE TROUGHS AND TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WITH TIME. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE 6 HR
AGO...AS THE GFDL AND NOGAPS HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS FAR ENOUGH
TO THE LEFT TO KEEP OTIS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...SINCE
THE CURRENT MOTION IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...THERE IS A RELUCTANCE TO MOVE THE FORECAST TRACK MUCH TO
THE LEFT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT FOR THE
FIRST 48-72 HR ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE. AFTER 72 HR IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

EASTERLY SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER OTIS...AND CONDITION NOW APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE STORM REACHES COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER 36 HR. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR OTIS
TO PEAK AT 75 KT IN 36-48 HR...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE CALLS FOR A
PEAK OF 76 KT IN 48 HR...AND THE GFDL CALLS FOR A 68 KT PEAK IN
ABOUT 30 HR. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION THIS
EVENING...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A STRONGER STORM THAN
THE GUIDANCE WITH A PEAK OF 80 KT IN ABOUT 36 HR. OTIS COULD
STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
OTIS WILL BE MOVING ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ISOTHERMS AFTER 36-48 HR...AND SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK
COULD RESULT IN LARGE CHANGES IN SSTS UNDER THE STORM LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS
OFFSHORE...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE
CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THUS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE BEING
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR THE BOTH COASTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 19.9N 109.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 20.8N 110.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 21.6N 111.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 22.2N 112.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 22.7N 112.4W 75 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 24.5N 113.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 04/0000Z 26.5N 114.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 05/0000Z 29.5N 114.0W 35 KT...INLAND

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 300540
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2005

...OTIS CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...OBSERVED FROM LOS CABOS
MEXICO RADAR...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST OR ABOUT 170
MILES... 275 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF OTIS IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE
CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
OTIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DATA FROM A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION AT
SOCORRO ISLAND LOCATED SOUTHWST OF OTIS...RECENTLY REPORTED WIND
GUSTS TO 38 MPH...62 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

REPEATING THE 11 PM PDT POSITION...20.4 N...110.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
2 AM PDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005

OTIS HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE WHICH CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON
CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA. BOTH OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS...MAKING OTIS A HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH
THE SHEAR IS LOW...THE CYCLONE HAS ONLY 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE A
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS.
THEREFORE...INTENSIFICATION IS ONLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
THROUGH 36 HOURS.

SATELLITE DATA AND RADAR FROM LOS CABOS SUGGEST THAT OTIS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FORCE OTIS TO MOVE ON A TRACK BETWEEN NORTHWEST
AND NORTH-NORTHWEST...PARALLELING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER
...OTIS SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND APPROACH THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS WHICH BRING OTIS TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GFDL KEEPS THE
HURRICANE PARALLELING AND NEAR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA UNTIL
DISSIPATION OVER COOLER WATERS.

THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY OR
SATURDAY. NO CHANGES IN WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE REQUIRED AT THIS
TIME.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 20.7N 110.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 21.5N 110.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 22.4N 111.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 24.0N 112.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 25.5N 113.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 27.5N 114.0W 45 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/0600Z 30.5N 114.0W 35 KT...INLAND

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 300832
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005

...OTIS BECOMES A HURRICANE....

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
BY SATELLITE AND RADAR FORM LA PAZ MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 20.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES... 250 KM...SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...ANY
MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER
NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 70 MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 2 AM PDT POSITION...20.7 N...110.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 5 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 AM
PDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

TCDEP5
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005

THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-COVERED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY... BUT THE EYE
STRUCTURE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB...65 KT FROM SAB... 65 KT
FROM AFWA... AND AN AVERAGE ODT VALUE OF T4.5/77 KT OVER THE PAST
1.5 HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND OUTFLOW
IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/07. OTIS MADE A SLIGHT WESTWARD
JOG DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... BUT THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE A
TEMPORARY MOTION AND WAS LIKELY DUE TO THE RE-ALIGNMENT OF THE MID-
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. A 30/0532Z TRMM OVERPASS
INDICATED THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE WAS TILTED ABOUT 20 NMI TO THE
EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL EYE... BUT RADAR DATA AND A 30/1205Z AMSU
OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE TWO CIRCULATIONS ARE NOW VERTICALLY
STACKED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEAKENING WESTERN PORTION OF A LARGE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT... HOWEVER... THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON HOW THE UPPER-LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS
HANDLED. THE GFS... NOGAPS... AND UKMET MODELS DROP THE LOW
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF OTIS... WHICH RESULTS IN
THE HURRICANE BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. IN CONTRAST... THE GFDL... CANADIAN...
AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN THE UPPER-LOW AND BUILD THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF OTIS... CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY
FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE LATEST TREND IN WATER VAPORY IMAGERY AND
IN UW-CIMSS WATER VAPOR-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LOW
IS STRONGER... DIGGING SOUTHWARD... AND THAT MORE RIDGING IS
OCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE UPPER-LOW. ALSO... 500 MB
HEIGHTS HAVE DECREASED MORE THAN 40 METERS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS AND OVER SOUTHERN
BAJA. ALL OF THIS WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT THE GFS-NOGAPS-UKMET
SOLUTION... AND THAT 3-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SINCE OTIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 28C OR WARMER SSTS AND THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN 5 KT OR LESS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS.

THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 21.1N 110.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 21.8N 111.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 22.5N 111.8W 80 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 23.5N 112.4W 75 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 24.5N 113.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 26.0N 113.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 28.5N 113.5W 45 KT...INLAND CENTRAL BAJA
120HR VT 05/1200Z 31.5N 112.0W 30 KT...INLAND NWRN MEXICO

WTPZ35 KNHC 301755
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005

...OTIS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN
EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
205 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND ABOUT 255 MILES... 410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO
MEXICO.

OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE
TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OTIS
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR... A SUSTAINED WIND OF
39 MPH...63 KM/HR... AND A GUST TO 52 MPH...83 KM/HR WERE REPORTED
AT CABO SAN LUCAS AT A HEIGHT OF 735 FT...224 METERS ABOVE SEA
LEVEL.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM PDT POSITION...21.3 N...111.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 2 PM PDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

WTPZ35 KNHC 302008
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005

...OTIS CONTINUING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO.
THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 230 MILES... 375 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO
MEXICO.

OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE
TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OTIS
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND SPEED OF 46 MPH...74 KM/HR... AND A GUST TO 61 MPH...98 KM/HR
WERE REPORTED AT CABO SAN LUCAS AT A HEIGHT OF 735 FT...224 METERS
ABOVE SEA LEVEL.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TOMORROW.

REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...21.6 N...111.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM PDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 302004
TCDEP5
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005

THE EYE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER DEFINED IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND ALSO IN RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS
MEXICO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB... 90 KT FROM
SAB... 77 KT FROM AFWA... AND A 30/1059Z UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 975 MB AND 80 KT. THE MOST RECENT RAW ODT VALUES HAVE
INCREASED SHARPLY TO T5.4/99 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/07. NOT TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD... BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. HOWEVER... THE 12Z MODELS...
INCLUDING THE GFDL AND CANADIAN MODELS... ARE NOW SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECASTS... AND THE CURRENT AND PREVIOUS
GFS... NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODEL RUNS IN RECURVING OTIS SLOWLY NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48-72 HOURS... AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
LIE MAINLY WITH THE FORECAST MOTION. THE UKMET IS FASTER AND MORE
TO THE RIGHT... WHEREAS THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS ARE SLOWER AND ON
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OTHER MODELS ARE
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THOSE TWO EXTREMES. SINCE THE GFS AND NOGAPS
MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING BETTER THE EVOLUTION OF THE DIGGING LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST... MORE WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON THOSE
TWO SOLUTIONS. ALTHOUGH OTIS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... A 120-HOUR POSITION WAS
INCLUDED FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES BASED ON THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF
THE DECOUPLED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE
OTIS WILL BE OVER OVER 28C OR WARMER SSTS... AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 2 KT TO 7 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL... WHICH ONLY BRINGS OTIS UP
TO 80 KT IN 12 HOURS... BUT MUCH HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL...
WHICH WEAKENS OTIS IMMEDIATELY AND DOWN TO 66 KT IN 24 HOURS. ONE
DISTURBING PIECE OF INTENSITY INFORMATION IS THE HIGH ODT VALUE.
THERE IS AT LEAST A MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT OTIS COULD REACH
CATEGORY 3 STATUS IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS BEFORE THE INTENSITY
LEVELS OFF OR DECREASES AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER TO 26C SSTS.

THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY.
12-FT SEAS WERE INCREASED BASED ON 18Z SHIP OBSERVATIONS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 21.6N 111.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 22.3N 111.7W 85 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 23.3N 112.2W 90 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 24.4N 112.4W 80 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 26.2N 113.0W 70 KT...NEAR WEST-CENTRAL BAJA
72HR VT 03/1800Z 28.7N 112.9W 45 KT...NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
96HR VT 04/1800Z 32.0N 112.0W 25 KT...INLAND NWRN MEXICO
120HR VT 05/1800Z 35.5N 110.0W 20 KT...INLAND ERN ARIZONA

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 302356
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005

...CORRECT FORECASTER NAME...

...OTIS PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA
MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO.
THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...
200 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 220 MILES... 355 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO
MEXICO.

OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE
TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OTIS
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND
SPEED OF 49 MPH...79 KM/HR... AND A GUST TO 63 MPH...101 KM/HR WERE
REPORTED AT CABO SAN LUCAS AT A HEIGHT OF 735 FT...224 METERS ABOVE
SEA LEVEL.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TOMORROW.

REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...21.7 N...111.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM PDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 010230
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005

...OTIS SLOWS AND STRENGTHENS...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

AT 8 PM PDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS.

AT 8 PM PDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO
NORTHWARD TO LORETO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...
205 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT
220 MILES... 355 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.

OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY
MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER
NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OTIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND
SPEED OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR... AND A GUST TO 50 MPH...81 KM/HR WERE
REPORTED AT CABO SAN LUCAS AT A HEIGHT OF 735 FT...224 METERS ABOVE
SEA LEVEL.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...21.7 N...111.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 010249
TCDEP5
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005

AFTER LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED AT ABOUT 00Z...OTIS HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EYE CLEARING OUT AND THE
EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS COOLING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90
KT FROM SAB...AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. BASED ON THE RECENTLY
IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT.

THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADAR AT LOS CABOS
INDICATES THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/4...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION
MAY BE SLOWER THAN THAT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/
UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N122W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO NEAR
23N124W. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS IS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
115W...AND THIS RIDGE IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR SOMEWHAT BLOCKING
THE FORWARD MOTION OF OTIS DURING THE EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LOW FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...SHOUDL CAUSE OTIS TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 36-48
HR...THEN GRADUALLY RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. ALL
GUIDANCE SAVE THE ECMWF NOW AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
THE UKMET CALLS FOR A FASTER AND MORE EASTWARD MOTION THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TURN OTIS MORE WESTWARD AWAY
FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
BETWEEN 24-96 HR...CALLING FOR OTIS TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48 HR...AND MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO IN A LITTLE OVER 72 HR. THE NEW TRACK IS JUST TO
THE LEFT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNS AND
GUNA.

OTIS IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A HURRICANE STRONGER THAN OTIS IS NOW. BASED ON THIS...THE
GOOD EYE STRUCTURE...AND LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR OTIS TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT IN ABOUT
24 HR. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE PEAK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
GUIDANCE...90 KT IS STRONGER THAN THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. THUS...OTIS MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. AFTER 24 HR...COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING LAND
INTERACTION WILL CAUSE WEAKENING. WHILE A 120 HR POINT IS INCLUDED
IN THE FORECAST...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE SURFACE CENTER OF OTIS
COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE UNITED STATES...ALTHOUGH A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD STILL EXIST.

THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE
FOR 24 HR OR MORE. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 21.7N 111.4W 80 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 22.4N 111.9W 85 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 23.3N 112.2W 90 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 24.7N 112.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 26.3N 112.7W 70 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 29.0N 112.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 32.0N 112.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/0000Z 35.5N 110.5W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING

WTPZ35 KNHC 010546
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005

...OTIS HESITATES...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO LORETO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
215 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT
220 MILES... 355 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.

OTIS HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A
NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... ANY
MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER
NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND OTIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM PDT POSITION...21.7 N...111.6 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
2 AM PDT.

FORECASTER AVILA/LAUER

$$

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 010839
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005

...OTIS REACHES 105 MPH WINDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO LORETO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND ABOUT 205 MILES... 330 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.

OTIS HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH OTIS OVER
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. HEAVY AMOUNTS COULD SPREAD
NORTHWARD TROUGH THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 2 AM PDT POSITION...21.9 N...111.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 5 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 AM
PDT.

FORECASTER AVILA/LAUER

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 010840
TCDEP5
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005

OTIS CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE REACHED 5.0 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 90 KNOTS. OTIS HAS PROBABLY PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THEN NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
THEREAFTER...A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE OVER COOLER
WATERS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN BUT OTIS IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A HURRICANE.
|
THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A
GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS SHOULD BEGIN SOON. OTIS IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY SEEN PLUNGING SOUTHEASTWARD
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES. THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CORE OF
OTIS NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE
FOR 24 HR OR MORE. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOTION OF OTIS DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...NO CHANGE IN WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 21.9N 111.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 22.5N 111.9W 90 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 23.5N 112.4W 85 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 25.0N 113.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 26.5N 113.2W 70 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 04/0600Z 29.5N 113.5W 45 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 05/0600Z 32.5N 113.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/0600Z 34.5N 112.0W 20 KT...INLAND

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 011509
TCDEP5
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005

THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...BUT
CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A RING OF FAIRLY DEEP
CONVECTION COMPLETELY ENCIRCLING THE EYE... AND RECENT PASSIVE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE EYEWALL IS STILL
INTACT...PERHAPS A LITTLE ERODED ON THE WEST SIDE. DVORAK T
NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN TO 4.0 BUT CI NUMBERS ARE 5.0. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD TO 85 KT. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FOR
AT LEAST 24 HOURS...AND THE WATERS BENEATH THE HURRICANE WILL ONLY
COOL GRADUALLY...SO ONLY A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE OTIS CROSSES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...STILL LIKELY AS A HURRICANE.

OTIS IS STILL MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...PERHAPS 315/3. A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY INDUCE A NORTHWARD
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...FASTER THAN THE NOGAPS BUT SLOWER THAN THE GFS...AND
FAVORING THE GFDL SOLUTION WHICH TAKES A WEAKENING OTIS OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND INTO ARIZONA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DISSIPATING IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS.

THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE
FOR ONLY ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT
COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. SINCE OTIS HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD
SUCH THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...A
HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE PENINSULA.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 21.9N 111.8W 85 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.5N 112.2W 80 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 23.6N 112.6W 80 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 25.2N 113.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 27.0N 113.3W 65 KT...INLAND BAJA PENINSULA
72HR VT 04/1200Z 31.0N 113.0W 40 KT...INLAND N MEXICO
96HR VT 05/1200Z 34.0N 112.5W 25 KT...INLAND ARIZONA
120HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 011741
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005

...CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE OTIS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY
OR SUNDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...
235 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 210 MILES... 340 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.

OTIS IS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME LATER TODAY. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH OTIS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM PDT POSITION...21.8 N...111.9 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
2 PM PDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 012040
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005

...OTIS WEAKENS SOME BUT RESUMES A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD
TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
230 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.

OTIS IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A
SLOW MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... BUT OTIS COULD STILL REACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AS A HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES... 165 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH OTIS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...22.0 N...111.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM
PDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 012048
TCDEP5
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005

THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM... WITH ONLY A
LIMITED AREA COLDER THAN -50C. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CI
NUMBERS AT 18Z WERE ALL NEAR 5.0/90 KT BUT WITH T NUMBERS 4.0/65
KT. AN AMSU OVERPASS AT 1357Z YIELDED INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 73-76
KT FROM CIMSS AND CIRA... AND A SSMIS OVERPASS AT 1608Z REVEALS
ONLY HALF OF AN EYEWALL REMAINING. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS... THE AMSU ESTIMATES... AND THE OVERALL
DETERIORATING STRUCTURE... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 75
KT. SHIPS FORECASTS OTIS TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR ONLY ANOTHER 12
HOURS OR SO... WHILE THE GFDL DOES SO THROUGH 24 HOURS. THE EFFECTS
OF OCEAN UPWELLING DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF THE HURRICANE
COULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY RAPID DECLINE IN THE INTENSITY. ON THE OTHER
HAND... IF OTIS GETS MOVING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST... IT COULD STILL HOLD ON TO HURRICANE INTENSITY UNTIL
MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THEREFORE... IT IS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN THE
HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALREADY IN PLACE. OTIS IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER PASSING OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... AND AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR INCREASES.

OTIS BECAME ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY DURING THE MORNING HOURS... BUT
IT APPEARS TO HAVE RECENTLY RESUMED A SLOW MOTION... ABOUT 350/3.
THE WEAK STEERING RESULTS FROM OTIS BEING CAUGHT BETWEEN A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON HOW FAST
THIS PATTERN WILL MOVE OTIS... BUT AT LEAST THEY AGREE ON THE
GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STALL
EARLIER TODAY AND TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS... BUT IS
ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE SAME NORTHWARD PATH. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS AS IT REACHES MAINLAND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.0N 111.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 22.5N 112.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 23.6N 112.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 25.2N 113.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 26.9N 113.4W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 04/1800Z 29.5N 113.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 05/1800Z 31.5N 113.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005

...OTIS MOVING LITTLE...STILL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD
TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 190 MILES... 310 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.

OTIS HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO
THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... BUT OTIS COULD STILL REACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AS A HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES... 165 KM. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH OTIS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...22.1 N...111.8 W. MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM PDT.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

WTPZ45 KNHC 020253
TCDEP5
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE TO THE EYE WALL STRUCTURE OF
OTIS THIS EVENING. BOTH SHORTWAVE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT EAST-NORTHEAST TILT. UW-CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
INCHED ITS WAY JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE AXIS. THE SHIPS
MODEL ALSO INDICATES MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL POSITION IS NUDGED WEST OF
THE SATELLITE FIXES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TILT. A 0205Z SSM/I
MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOULD HELP TO CLARIFY THIS DELEMA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 75 KT BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF 65 AND 77
KT DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...GFDL AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/3. OTIS REMAINS WITHIN A BREAK IN
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE
WEST IS COUNTER BALANCING THE STEERING CURRENT OF THE RIDGE OVER
MEXICO...CAUSING THIS SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH SLIGHT FORWARD SPEED DISPARITIES AFTER LANDFALL. THE
ECMWF AND THE UKMET DEPICT A CONSIDERABLY WEAKER TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WITH EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BEFORE REACHING THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GFS TRACKER LOSES THE WEAKENING TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND BEGINS TO TRACK A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW WEST OF THE
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST IN 72 HOURS. THIS IS INDICATED BY A
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS LIKELY
ERRONEOUS SCENARIO AND THE UKMET/ECMWF DISSIPATION PROGNOSIS ARE
DISCOUNTED IN THE FORECAST SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND
FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF
AND THE UKMET...AND THE GFS BEYOND 72 HOURS. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS AS IT REACHES MAINLAND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 22.3N 111.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 24.2N 112.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 25.9N 112.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 27.5N 113.1W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 05/0000Z 29.9N 113.1W 30 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 32.0N 113.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 020559
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005

...OTIS WEAKENING...NORTHWARD DRIFT CONTINUES...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD
TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
225 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.

OTIS HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO
THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT OTIS COULD STILL REACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AS A HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH OTIS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

REPEATING THE 11 PM PDT POSITION...22.2 N...112.0 W.
MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
2 AM PDT.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


$$

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 020846
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD
TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
215 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.

OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR...AND A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER
NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OTIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.14 INCHES.

OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 2 AM PDT POSITION...22.3 N...111.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 AM PDT.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 020854
TCDEP5
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005

TWO RECENT SSM/I OVERPASSES AND A QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY SOLUTION
CONFIRM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TILTED CORE STRUCTURE OF OTIS.
APPARENTLY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS HAVING QUITE AN IMPACT ON
THE SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS DRIER AIR ENTRAINING INTO
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AS WELL. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BANDING FEATURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE
T-NUMBERS HAVE DROPPED TO 65 KT FROM AFWA AND TAFB...AND 77 KT FROM
SAB RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT. THE
SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND AN UNFAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD WEAKEN OTIS TO A TROPICAL STORM IN
24 HOURS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE SYSTEM TO A DEPRESSION IN 72 HOURS
AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE GFDL AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE ALSO REFLECT THIS WEAKENING TREND. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/3. OTIS REMAINS WITHIN A BREAK IN
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EITHER DISSIPATE THE
SYSTEM IN 72 HOURS OR REFLECT A MERGE/ABSORPTION SCENARIO WITH A
DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST AS
NOGAPS NOW INDICATES. BASED ON THE ECMWF...GFDN...AND GFS
MODELS...OTIS COULD BECOME COMPLETELY SHEARED FROM THE MID- LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD...PARALELLING THE BAJA COAST AS
A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR AN INITIAL DRIFT
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...THEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED AS IT
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST IN 36 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...OTIS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AS A DEPRESSION...THEN DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO IN 96 HOURS.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 22.3N 111.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 23.1N 112.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 24.3N 112.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 26.1N 112.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 27.8N 113.0W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 05/0600Z 29.6N 113.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 32.0N 113.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 021434
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM LO CABOS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION WHICH IN FACT
HAS BECOME LIMITED. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS
INDICATED BY SHIPS MODEL...AND OTIS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND
AND WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.

OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 23.0N 111.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 23.7N 112.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 25.0N 112.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 26.5N 113.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 04/1200Z 28.5N 113.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 05/1200Z 30.0N 112.9W 20 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 32.0N 113.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 021734
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005

...OTIS BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO
LORETO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LORETO
NORTHWARD TO MULAGE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT OTIS IS LOCATED FATHER
SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. AT 11 AM PDT... 1800Z...
THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES ...210 KM...WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 140 MILES...230
KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.

OTIS HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
LATER TODAY. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN
WEST OR VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE THAT OTIS HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES ...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 11 AM PDT POSITION...22.7 N...112.2 W. MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
2 PM PDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

WTPZ45 KNHC 022035
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005

THE WEAKENING TREND HAS CONTINUED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION AND IS NOT VERY DEEP. T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AND
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY
CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. OTIS IS
ALREADY BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...WITH DRY AIR TO ITS WEST...AND COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE RATE INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.

OTIS HAS NOT BEEN MOVING VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS OR
SO...BUT IT NOW APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 6 KT. THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING SHALLOW...AND WILL PROBABLY
BE STEERED VERY SLOWLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR A VERY SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY MOTION...ON A
TRACK PARALLELING THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SINCE OTIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS...ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
REMAINS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 23.0N 112.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 23.7N 112.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 24.8N 113.2W 30 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 26.0N 114.0W 25 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 05/1800Z 28.5N 114.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 06/1800Z 29.0N 114.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATED

WTPZ35 KNHC 022351
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005

...OTIS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...OUTER RAINBANDS MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BAHIA MAGDALENA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND ABOUT 120 MILES... 190 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.

OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ...8
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF OTIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OR
VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY OR
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

OTIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...23.2 N...112.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
8 PM PDT.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 030241
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005

THE REMAINING CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
EXPOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...WITH THE LOS CABOS MEXICO RADAR
DEPICTING INFREQUENT WEAK RAINBANDS MOVING OVER THE COAST OF BAJA
JUST SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS ARE
DECREASING...30 TO 35 KT...BUT THE CI REMAINS AT 45 KT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY AS A
COMPROMISE. THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AGREE ON
DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS...BEFORE REACHING THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT...HOWEVER
RETAINS THE SYSTEM AS A 20 KT REMNANT LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN 48
HOURS...AND DISSIPATES IT OVER THE PENINSULA IN 96 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 340/5. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NOGAPS...THE GFDL...AND THE UKMET...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL
MODELS NOW SUGGEST A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT COMMENCING AROUND THE
48 HOUR PERIOD...AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIFTS OUT AND THE
LOW/MID- LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO
WOULD KEEP OTIS AWAY FROM THE COAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED THREE MODEL CLUSTER...INDICATING A WEAK LOW
MOVING ONSHORE IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 23.4N 112.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 24.1N 112.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 25.0N 113.3W 25 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 25.9N 113.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 05/0000Z 26.9N 113.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 06/0000Z 28.4N 113.8W 20 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 030908
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON OCT 03 2005

EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND A 0126Z QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY SOLUTION
INDICATE THAT OTIS REMAINS SHEARED ABOUT 45 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE REMAINING CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
AGENCIES ARE 35 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND AN
UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN OTIS TO
A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 330/6. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITHIN THE
LOW/MID-LAYER STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE EXTENDING OVER MEXICO.
AFTERWARD...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A NARROW LOW/MID- LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA CAUSING
OTIS TO DRIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AND THE SHALLOW GFS
BETA ADVECTION MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
OFFSHORE...PARALLELING THE COAST...THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 24.0N 112.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 24.7N 113.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 25.5N 113.7W 25 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 26.4N 114.3W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 05/0600Z 27.0N 114.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 06/0600Z 27.6N 115.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/0600Z 28.0N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED


$$

WTPZ45 KNHC 032022
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON OCT 03 2005

THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS SINCE THE
DEEP CONVECTION HAS VANISHED FOR THE PAST 6 TO 8 HOURS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM
AUTOMATIC STATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUN
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION ARE ABOUT 25 KNOTS. OTIS IS
ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN A DRY AIR ENVIRONMENT AND MOVING OVER
INCREASING COOLER WATERS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW WITHING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
UNTIL DISSIPATION.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 25.6N 113.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 26.5N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 04/1800Z 27.0N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 05/0600Z 27.5N 115.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED


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