Tropical depresssion 15-E
Forecast one

15-E forms...In theres a chance of a landfall....

A distrabance southwest of Main land Mexico. Has become organized enough to be called a depression. A well defined MLC/LLC appears to have formed on Satellite. T numbers is now 2.0 or 30 knots...Some curve banding has also formed...In which shows that the system might be quite close to tropical storm...But because there was no quickscat or visible satellite...A ship reported shown that the LLC was quite broad. So this makes this much easier...

The Cmc takes it to the northwest for the next 36 hours...Then turns it to the north then after. Then a turn to the northeast around 84 to 96 hours...The 00z shows a very broad system moving to the west-northwest or northwest for the next 48 to 54 hours. Then fellowed by a northward track...The Gfdl did not get a good hint of the system...So the overall mation is being used. The 00z gfdl is the farthest west/left. Which takes it to the west or west-northwest for the next 54 to 66 hours. Then turns it northward then after.

The area of high pressure over the Pacific northwest, should keep it on a more west-northwest to northwest track for the next 24 to 36 hours. Fellowed by the trough/weakness, that suppose to come into the Pacific northwest/Northwestern united states Friday. This should help pull it northward. A threat to the Baja California is likely at this moment.


A slow strengthing should occur over the next 12 to 24 hours. Fellowed by a faster pace of strengthing, as upper shear should be weaking. The window should be closing around 54 to 60 hours...There is a chance that this cyclone could become a hurricane....But we will wait for tomarrow to see organizion...Before forecasting it. A close landfall around 72 hours....

0 35 mph
12 40 mph
24 50 mph mph
36 60 mph
48 65 mph
60 70 mph
72 60 mph close call on Baja California
84 40 mph
96 20 mph
120 Extratropical

Forecaster Matthew

This forecast is Unoffical...

Tropical storm Otis
Forecast two

Tropical depression 15 becomes Otis...

T numbers out of sab are up to 2.5/35 knots. Also quickscats at 7:42 UTC shown that there was flaged 50 knots...With unflaged area of 40 knots southwest of the center. Satellite images(6:00z) show a system that has formed a inner core...Even so quickscats shown that the LLC was elongated to the southeast to northeast. With the convection/MLC becoming more inline. It is asumed the overall system is becoming better organized. Based on quickscat data the storm is set at 40 knots/45 mph...

Shear maps out of Cimss...Shows that there is 10 to 15 knots of westly shear. Which is not faverable for large amounts of strengthing.


Saturday evening into Sunday a trough should start weaking the ridge to the north. The trough Axis at 12z satursday will lay just off Califoria ...The 00z Avn forecasts the ridge to its(Otis) north 12 to 48 hours. In which the 850 millibars winds will move the system to the west or west-northwest...At around 48 hours this high should be weaking because of the trough/weakness moving into the Pacific northwest. By 60 hours the area of high pressure should be centered over central Mainland Mexico/Rockie mountains. A deep trough should be setting in over the western United states by Monday....The Monday into Tuesday period the trough should dig off the western coastline. In which will pick the cyclone up...In a possible move to the northeast then after.

The Gfdl 00z takes the system to the west-northwest. For the next 36 hours to 42 hours. Then shifts the cyclone to the north or north-northwest after 48 hours. In which it moves the cyclone about 80 to 120 nmi off the Baja around 60 to 78 hours. The fellows through with a turn to the northeast...Which brings it inland durning the long range. In which is alot of the reasoning of the GFS above...


The CMC brings it even more westward then the two above. Then turns it due north...

The track is shifted slightly to the left...In which doe's not bring the cyclone on land intill around 24.5 about 84 to 92 hours. A northward track should happen around 54 to 60 hours. It has mostly to do with how strong the trough...In how fast the ridge sets up to the east.

Strength forecast calls for slow strengthing...The factors of westly shear should slow strengthing. As the ridge to the north weakens around 48 to 60 hours some faster strengthing should take place...Intill the cyclone enters cooler waters. We are forecasting 70 knots around 48 hours.

0 45 mph
12 50 mph
24 55 mph
36 65 mph
48 80 mph
60 65 mph entering cooler water
72 50 mph
84 45 mph making landfall
96 30 mph passing over Baja Califorian
120 extratropical

Forecaster Matthew

looks to be developing fast

Hurricane Otis
Forecast three

Otis becomes a hurricane south of Baja California. Expected to strengthing...


Just out of satellite black out, shows that Otis is strengthing. It shows that Otis has become a very healthy hurricane. A evenly round Central dense overcase, now cirles around a large eye. Not unlike a few hurricanes so far this season over the Atlatnic. Sab from over a hour ago shown 4.0 t=65 knots...Since then the hurricane has greatly improved...In it might not be out of the quastion that 70 knots is to low...But the hurricane at this moment will be set at 70 knots/80 mph.


Sea surface charts shows that the 28c line go's out to 113 west...In to the north to around 24.5 north...The 26c line go's up the Baja in a stripe to 27 north. Once out of the 28c line support for a hurricane will be gone. In once pass the 26c line tropical cyclone development will fade.

The 00z Gfdl runs the cyclone right up this line...Just off shore Baja...A northward or northwest movement...The 00z Gfs shows it moving northward for the next 3 days...This trough coming down should weaken the trough. In which pulls the cyclone to the north. After 72 hours the system then should be forced northeastward...Most of this was noted on last nights discussion.

It should also be noted that the gfs turns the cyclone before 25 north...In which slows the cyclone down...I'm going near the middle of the gfdl/gfs models...

The left layer is the Cmc which takes it northward...Then turns it northwestward...

Track is near last nights thinking...In which is near 27.5/28 north for landfall near 84 hours...


The 00z Gfdl strengthing the cyclone. To a major durning the next 12 hours. Fellowed by a slow weaking. Unbelievely the ship only shows it at 72 knots at 24 hours. In which is likely way to low.

0 80 mph
12 95 mph
24 105 mph
36 90 mph
48 80 mph
60 75 mph
72 65 mph
84 55 mph making landfall.
96 40 mph over the Gulf of California
120 extratropical

Forecaster Matthew

Hurricane Otis
Forecast four



Otis stengthing...


Satellite shown that otis, had cleared out a well defined eye. With a well defined ring of convection around the eye. Which is classic for hurricanes. Outflow reminds good at this time...In upper level shear is favarable. But over the last few frames of the satellite loop has shown that the northwestern quad is starting to get chiped away. This maybe because of the stable air/cooler waters. That lays to the northwest of here. So the storm has likely peaked...T numbers show 5.0/5.0 out of sab. With the clear eye, the real strength of the cyclone maybe closer to 95 to 100 knots. But we will go by the data at hand. So 90 knots/105 mph.

The Gfdl(00z) Turns the cyclone to the north at 12 hours...Then keeps it north intill around 48 hours. Making landfall around 27.5 near 60 to 66 hours. The 00z Gfs shows a much slower movment to the north...In which it had forecasted last night. So it might have a better handle on the storm. It slowly moves it to the north just off the Baja for the next 36 hours. Then turns the cyclone northeastward then after making landfall around 42 to 48 hours. At around 25.5 north...The cmc(00z agrees closely with the Gfs. Also to stack the cards the Nogaps,Ukmet is nearly the same. So a track down the middle of the globals seem very likely. The track because of this has been shifted to the right....Making landfall near 24 north durning the next around 48 hours.


A slow weaking should take place over the next 24 hours. Even so the water/SST's will likely remind faverable durning this period. The stable air is already becoming incased into the northwestern quad. Then a 10 mph decrease per 6 to 12 hours should take place once it starts moving into cooler waters then after. A track back over the Gulf of California should help it to maintain some strength.

0 105 mph
12 95 mph
24 80 mph
36 60 mph
48 50 mph landfall
60 45 mph over Gulf of California
72 30 mph
96 inland...

Forecaster Matthew

Tropical storm Otis
Forecast Five

Otis moving northward slowly...


Otis was mostly exposed earlier tonight. But over the last hour or so, some of the convection has wraped into the center/core.

Quickscats show only 30 to 35 knot winds...With t numbers out of sab 2.0=30 knots. Because of the convection redeveloping closer to the core. The storm will be kepted a tropical storm=35knots.

Cimss shear maps still show that the upper level shear is still faverbable at this hour. But on the other hand sea surface temperatures are to cool to support a tropical cyclone. In should only get more unfaverable. Also it is moving into a stable/dry air.

Latest water vapor satellite shows that a stream of clouds/moisture is moving east-northeastward, from the northeastern side of the cyclone. In which means the cyclone is starting to feel the effects of the trough. The Gfdl/Gfs shows a slow movement to the north over the next 24 hours. Cmc also hints at the same thing. So a slow movement to the north should take place. The system will likely become a remant over the next 24 to 36 hours.



0 40 mph
12 35 mph
24 30 mph
36 20 mph
48 faded

Forecaster Matthew

Tropical depression Otis
Forecast six


Otis becomes a remant low....


Otis has winds near 20 mph...Moving northward...Should stay on a northward path through out the next 24 hours.


This is the last forecast on Otis.


Forecaster Matthew