THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
ALREADY HAS A SURFACE CIRCULATION SO AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
OVER OPEN WATERS.

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 575 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHWESTERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER DEFINED.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM LATER TODAY OR ON SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005

...19TH DEPRESSION OF SEASON FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 32.9 WEST OR ABOUT
665 MILES...1070 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED SLOW MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...11.8 N... 32.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN

000
WTNT44 KNHC 302100
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005

METSAT-8 VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY A CLOSED
AND FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MORE RECENTLY...
SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE SYSTEM HAS NOW ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... THE 19TH OF THE ATLANTIC
SEASON. DVORAK T NUMBERS AT 18Z WERE 1.5 FROM SAB AND 2.0 FROM
TAFB... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY... ALTHOUGH THE
MOTION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO SUGGESTS A WESTWARD DRIFT...
PERHAPS 275/2. THE LACK OF STEERING RESULTS FROM PRESENCE OF A
DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 700 N MI TO THE NORTH
OF THE DEPRESSION... RATHER THAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING THAT IS MORE
OFTEN IN PLACE ALONG ABOUT 25N AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. A CONTINUED
SLOW MOTION IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE
NEXT 24 HOURS... UNTIL THE LOW TO THE NORTH DEPARTS NORTHEASTWARD
AS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS SHOULD BE
FOLLOWED BY A TURN OF THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH... WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... AS
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO ITS WEST AND RISE TO ITS EAST... AS
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAPE VERDES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND WEST OF THE NOGAPS AND GFDL
BUT FASTER THAN THE GFS WHICH SEEMS SLOWED BY A SEEMINGLY SPURIOUS
LOW TO ITS EAST. NONE OF THE MODELS FORECAST A MOTION NORTH OF 30N
WITHIN FIVE DAYS DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NOT TOO PROHIBITIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND THE SSTS EXCEED 28C. SOME STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST
IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. BEYOND
THEN... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE SINCE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK DUE
TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SHIPS MODEL
WHICH ANTICIPATES CONTINUED STRENGTHENING TO 60 KT BY 120 HOURS...
BUT THAT IS ALONG THE MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY BAMM TRACK... AND IT IS
ALSO MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE GFDL.

FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 11.8N 32.9W 25 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 12.0N 33.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 12.2N 33.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 13.1N 34.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 14.7N 35.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 18.0N 36.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 22.0N 37.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 26.0N 37.0W 45 KT

2100 UTC 9/30/2005 TROPICLA DEPRESSION 19 FORECAST #1

This is an independent product

We finally have a Cape Verde Storm.

All models indicate a recurvature for this system, with the CONU consensus not bringing the system beyond 40W. This is due to the ridge not being at all strong to the north, with UL's to its nroth and west. This forecast follows the guidance.

Intensity guidance indicates that this feature should become a tropical storm. The forecast is conservative and brings 19 to storm intensity in 36 hours. Some shear should prevent the system from undergoing rapid intensification. While hurricane intensity is not currently forecast, there is an outside chance that this may in fact occur. The GFDL supports this possibility.

Initial (1800 UTC): 11.8N 32.9W 25KT
12 Hour: 12.5N 33.4W 30KT
24 Hour: 13.5N 33.8W 30KT
36 Hour: 15.0N 34.2W 35KT
48 Hour: 16.5N 34.6W 40KT
72 Hour: 19.5N 35.2W 50KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 22.0N 35.2W 55KT
120 Hour: 25.0N 34.5W 50KT

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

000
WTNT34 KNHC 010231
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO
ANY LAND AREA...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.1 WEST OR
ABOUT 660 MILES...1065 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...12.3 N... 33.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT44 KNHC 010308
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005

AN SSM/IS OVERPASS AT 2227Z INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF STRONG AND
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. SHORTWAVE IMAGERY FROM METEOSAT-8 SINCE
THAT TIME SUGGESTS THIS IS STILL THE CASE...BUT IT CANNOT BE
DETERMINED JUST HOW FAR THE CENTER IS FROM THE CONVECTION AT THE
MOMENT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND 25 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 310/2. OTHER THAN THAT...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. A DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 700 N MI
NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVED WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE IN A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD DIRECTION FOR 72-96 HR. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD
BETWEEN THE MORE WESTWARD GFS AND THE MORE EASTWARD NOGAPS. THE
TRACK FORECAST THROUGH 96 HR IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. AFTER 96 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE MAY FORM NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH COULD
STEER IT MORE WESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHOW THIS
YET...BUT WILL SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THIS
POSSIBILITY.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF NORTHERLY OR
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THIS NOT STOPPING THE
CONVECTION THUS FAR. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS DECREASING SHEAR IN
ABOUT 12 HR AND MAINTAINS THIS THROUGH ABOUT 60 HR. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT IN 48-72 HR. THIS IS A BIT LESS THAN
EITHER THE SHIPS OR GFDL ARE FORECASTING. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
ARE FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER LOW...AND IF THE DEPRESSION GETS
TOO CLOSE TO THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN SHIPS IS
FORECASTING. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE UNTIL IT IS MORE APPARENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE STRONGER SHEAR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 12.3N 33.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 12.5N 33.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 13.0N 33.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 14.2N 34.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 15.8N 35.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 19.5N 36.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 23.5N 36.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 06/0000Z 26.5N 36.5W 45 KT


$$

000
WTNT34 KNHC 010837
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WAS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST OR ABOUT 695 MILES...1115 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTHWEST TRACK
SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...13.3 N... 34.0 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT44 KNHC 010837
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005

LATEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WAS
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. MOST OF THE`CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH QUITE STRONG...IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER. GIVEN SUCH A
SHEARED PATTERN THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IF THE SHEAR
RELAXES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
THEREAFTER...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE PREVENTING FURTHER
STRENGTHENING.

THE PRESENT RELOCATION USING THE MICROWAVE DATA DOES NOT REFLECT A
NORTHWARD MOTION...IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...AS THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION MOVES WESTWARD...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. SOME OF THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LOW TO THE
WEST FASTER...CONSEQUENTLY THEY BRING THE DEPRESSION FATHER WEST.
HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL TRACK
ENVELOPE.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 13.3N 34.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 14.0N 34.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 35.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 16.0N 35.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 17.5N 36.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 21.6N 37.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 25.0N 37.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 28.0N 37.0W 40 KT

000
WTNT34 KNHC 011436
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN RE-ORGANIZES FARTHER NORTH...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 33.8 WEST OR
ABOUT 665 MILES...1075 KM... WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...14.1 N... 33.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT44 KNHC 011734
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005

CORRECTED TD-20 TO TD-19

SURFACE WIND DATA FROM A 01/0822 QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATE A WELL
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER EVEN FARTHER NORTH THAN SUSPECTED IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB... AND 25 FROM AFWA. HOWEVER... DEEP CONVECTION
HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE CLASSIFICATIONS WERE MADE...
AND THE QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED 30-KT WIND
VECTORS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/06. OTHER THAN THE RELOCATION OF
THE CENTER FARTHER TO THE NORTH... THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. TD-19 IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS... THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AS A
MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING STEERING FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
LOW... COUPLED WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH
... IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN A DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED BY
DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST... AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM
IS STILL OVER 26-28C SSTS. BY 48 HOURS... UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 25 KT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 40 KT
BY 72 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER... IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE STRONG SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE
BY 96 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 14.1N 33.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 14.8N 34.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 16.4N 35.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 18.2N 35.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 36.7W 40 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 23.0N 37.6W 35 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 25.5N 37.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 29.0N 37.0W 30 KT

000
WTNT44 KNHC 012112
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS ESSENTIALLY
EVAPORATED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE LAST COUPLE OF IMAGES ARE
SHOWING A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -70C HAS
DEVELOPED VERY NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN EARLIER
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED A LARGE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD THAT WILL
LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO TO SPIN DOWN... SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT... ESPECIALLY SINCE DEEP
CONVECTION MAY BE STARTING TO REFIRE NEAR THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/07. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. TD-19 IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW FOR THE
NEXT 72 HOURS... AND THEN TURN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD... ASSUMING THE
SYSTEM SURVIVES THAT LONG AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GFDL MODEL IS
THE FASTEST OF ALL OF THE MODELS AND RECURVES THE CYCLONE QUICKLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AFTER 72 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE GFDL MAKES
THE SYSTEM A VERTICALLY DEEP 80-KT HURRICANE BY 96 HOURS... DESPITE
40-50 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...
MINUS THE GFDL CONTRIBUTION AFTER 72 HOURS SINCE IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE
SYSTEM REMAINS OVER 26-27C SSTS. BY 48 HOURS... UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST 25 KT AND TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KT BY 72 HOURS. THE INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD CREATE AT LEAST SLOW
WEAKENING... BUT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS AS
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 14.7N 34.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 16.0N 34.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 17.8N 35.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.5N 36.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 21.2N 37.1W 35 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 24.2N 37.4W 30 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 26.5N 37.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 06/1800Z 29.0N 35.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF WESTERLY
SHEAR THIS EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED BETWEEN
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...A
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOW NO WINDS HIGHER THAN 25 KT THAT WERE NOT IN
THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. BLENDING THESE DATA PRODUCES AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/6. A LARGE-DEEP LAYER LOW NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...
ALLOWING THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST
BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO TURN THE
CYCLONE EASTWARD AFTER 72 HR EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL MASS FIELDS
INDICATE RIDGING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. BASED ON THE RIDGING...
THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A MUCH SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD TURN
THAT THAT CURRENTLY CALLED FOR BY THE GUIDANCE.

THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THE SYSTEM SURVIVE? ALL THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF 20N WHERE
IT IS FORECAST TO BE IN EXCESS OF 40 KT AND THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE BARELY 26C. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR
IN CASE SOME TEMPORARY DECREASE IN THE SHEAR OCCURS OR A STRONG
CONVECTIVE BURST SPINS THE SYSTEM UP. IT THEN CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM
TO WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES...BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 120
HR. IT IS POSSIBLE GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS THAT THE DEPRESSION MAY
NOT STRENGTHEN AT ALL...AND DISSIPATE SOONER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 15.3N 34.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 16.6N 34.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 18.2N 35.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 19.9N 36.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 22.0N 36.4W 30 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 25.0N 36.5W 25 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 27.5N 36.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 07/0000Z 29.5N 34.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

000
WTNT44 KNHC 020916
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST WESTERLY WIND SHEAR.
SOME DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE EAST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CENTER... BUT OVERALL THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN
BOTH DEPTH AND COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT
06Z REMAINED 30 KT... AND THAT IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE
SHIPS MODEL STILL FORECASTS 33 KT AT 24 AND 36 HOURS... AND THERE
IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BRIEFLY REACH
TROPICAL STORM STATUS... BUT PROBABLY JUST BARELY IF IT HAPPENS AT
ALL. THE WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ONLY GET STRONGER AND THE SSTS
GRADUALLY COOLER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK... ESPECIALLY BEYOND 36
HOURS... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN
ABOUT 72 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/7. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR
GFS AGREES ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 72
HOURS... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST BUT NOT
VERY QUICKLY DUE TO LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
WEAKENING CYCLONE. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO NUDGE CLOSER TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 16.0N 34.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 17.2N 35.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 18.9N 36.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 36.4W 35 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 22.3N 36.6W 30 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 25.5N 36.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 06/0600Z 28.0N 34.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/0600Z 29.0N 31.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

000
WTNT44 KNHC 021423
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005

THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL WELL
TO THE WEST OF DECAYING CONVECTION. WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR...THERE SEEMS
LITTLE CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL RECOVER...AND THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY UNLESS AN UNEXPECTED REGENERATION OCCURS.

NOW A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WITH THE LOW LAYER
FLOW...AT 315/11. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE REMNANT
LOW DISSIPATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE GFS HAD BEEN ALONE IN
FORECASTING THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF A DECAYING SYSTEM AND AT
THIS POINT APPEARS TO HAVE GOTTEN IT RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ADJUSTED TO FOLLOW THE GFS AND SHALLOW BAM GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 17.0N 35.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 03/0000Z 18.2N 37.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 38.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED


$$