This morning, Invest.90L was situated at 11.8N 32.5W. Its current intensity score is 1.5, which typically equates to 25 knots.

Over the next several days, it will likely be passing over 28°C-29°C water and relatively low shear (5 knots - 10 knots). As a result, there is development potential for this system and its development into at least a tropical storm is probably somewhat more likely than not.

Whether or not it develops, this system should not pose a threat to either the United States, Canadian or the Caribbean.

∙ Since 1851, 4 tropical depressions/tropical storms/hurricanes have passed within 200 nautical miles of the position where 90L is centered during October, November, or December. None made landfall in either the Caribbean, U.S. or Canada.

∙ Since 1950, 0/24 (0%) of tropical storms or hurricanes that formed east of 55W longitude in October and 0/36 (0%) that formed east of there in the October-December period made U.S. or Caribbean landfall. Just 1/24 (4%) that formed in October and 1/36 (3%) that formed in the October-December period made Canadian landfall: Lili (1990) in New Foundland.

Since 1950, the farthest east any tropical cyclone formed and wound up making U.S. landfall was Hurricane Hazel (1954). Hazel formed at 12.4N 59.2W.

∙ The early model consensus takes 90L safely to the north into the open Atlantic.

In sum, 90L has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. However, it is very unlikely to pose any threat to the Caribbean, U.S. or Canada.

Thanks for the analysis don. :)

looks to be a fish. are you concerned about a low forming off the se coast, don?