Today's Discussion
Today's Discussion Posted: September 30, 2005 8:09 p.m.



19TH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC


As of 5:00 p.m. Friday, Tropical Depression 19 was located near 11.8 north and 32.9 west, or about 665 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It was moving to the west at 2 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure was 1007 millibars, or 29.74 inches. TD 19 should slowly track north and could become a tropical storm within 12-24 hours. If it did, it would be named Stan. This feature should generally track to the north-northwest toward the open waters of the Atlantic over the weekend.

A broad area of low pressure located along 84 west, south of 22 north, is tracking west-northwest at 10-15 knots. The center of circulation has taken a jump northward over the past 12-24 hours, and it appears to be close to 20 north. It should track near the northern Yucatan Peninsula Saturday, and then into the open waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Sunday. We are concerned about the development farther to the north and its future impact on the Texas or Mexican coast. Latest models locate the track of this feature farther north over the weekend, and the GFS now takes it into the lower Rio Grande Valley Monday. We think this feature can still become a depression over the weekend and pass across the northern Yucatan. If it passes north of the Yucatan, provided it has become a depression, it could strengthen into a tropical storm or possibly a hurricane in the southwestern Gulf by early next week. If it goes over the Yucatan, then it would take longer to recharge. Meanwhile, upper-level shear is and will be favorable for development from the northwestern Caribbean into the southwestern Gulf through early next week. Anybody with interests along the Texas coast into northeastern Mexico should keep up to date on this feature.

A tropical wave along 68 west shows little sign of development. An upper trough of low pressure interacting with a tropical wave to the northeast of Puerto Rico will have to be watched for slow development over the weekend. This feature could be destined for the Southeast coast of the United States next Tuesday or Wednesday. Another area of disturbed weather southwest of Bermuda will shift west and could juice things up along the Southeast coast early next week.