Title: Forecast On Tropical Depression 19
Matthew - October 1, 2005 09:53 AM (GMT)
Tropical depression 19
Forecast one
19th tropical depression forms...
Some northwestly shear has been displacing the convection from the center. Keeping the LLC exposed to the north. But over the last few frames convection has started to form over the LLC...Overall coverage of the LLC has expanded. In which is a sign that the system could becoming better organized. Over time the convection to the south should die out. While convection like is going on right now should form over the LLC. The center is near 13.5 to 14 north. Sab t numbers as of a hour or more ago shown 2.0/30 knots. Because of the lack of organizion we like to wait a while before upgrading.
The Gfdl(00z) shows pretty much a north-northwestward track over the next 60 hours. Fellowed by a turn to the northeast. The Gfs(00z) shows a northward to northwest track for close to 72 hours. The gfs is also not sure where it go's then after. The trough/weakness would say for a turn to the northeast then after. The Gfs shows the main energy after 72 hours not getting picked up by the trough/weakness. Then getting under the ridge. The Cmc shows a north-northwest track for the next 108 to 120 hours. Then near the end of that forecast it shows it getting back under the ridge. Nogaps show a northward fellowed by a northeast. Then a trap under the ridge later int he period. Most of the Hurricane models lbar eastward of them taking it northwest for the next 48 hours. Fellowed by a northward then later on a northeastward. Bamd/Bamm take it more to the left. In which the bamd/bamm shows it making 42 west...
Thinking right now is for a north-northwest movement. For the next 36 to 48 hours. Fellowed by a curve to the north 48 to 72 hours. Then a weakness should open up so the cyclone should turn to the northeast later on.
Shear models are almost worstless. In fact this forecast can go both ways. The Gfdl shows this becoming a hurricane...The thinking is for a slow strengthing. Also to remember if it gets under a ridge it could strengthen alot more.
0 35 mph
12 40 mph
24 45 mph
36 50 mph
48 50 mph
60 55 mph
72 55 mph
Forecaster Matthew
Forecast one
19th tropical depression forms...
Some northwestly shear has been displacing the convection from the center. Keeping the LLC exposed to the north. But over the last few frames convection has started to form over the LLC...Overall coverage of the LLC has expanded. In which is a sign that the system could becoming better organized. Over time the convection to the south should die out. While convection like is going on right now should form over the LLC. The center is near 13.5 to 14 north. Sab t numbers as of a hour or more ago shown 2.0/30 knots. Because of the lack of organizion we like to wait a while before upgrading.
The Gfdl(00z) shows pretty much a north-northwestward track over the next 60 hours. Fellowed by a turn to the northeast. The Gfs(00z) shows a northward to northwest track for close to 72 hours. The gfs is also not sure where it go's then after. The trough/weakness would say for a turn to the northeast then after. The Gfs shows the main energy after 72 hours not getting picked up by the trough/weakness. Then getting under the ridge. The Cmc shows a north-northwest track for the next 108 to 120 hours. Then near the end of that forecast it shows it getting back under the ridge. Nogaps show a northward fellowed by a northeast. Then a trap under the ridge later int he period. Most of the Hurricane models lbar eastward of them taking it northwest for the next 48 hours. Fellowed by a northward then later on a northeastward. Bamd/Bamm take it more to the left. In which the bamd/bamm shows it making 42 west...
Thinking right now is for a north-northwest movement. For the next 36 to 48 hours. Fellowed by a curve to the north 48 to 72 hours. Then a weakness should open up so the cyclone should turn to the northeast later on.
Shear models are almost worstless. In fact this forecast can go both ways. The Gfdl shows this becoming a hurricane...The thinking is for a slow strengthing. Also to remember if it gets under a ridge it could strengthen alot more.
0 35 mph
12 40 mph
24 45 mph
36 50 mph
48 50 mph
60 55 mph
72 55 mph
Forecaster Matthew
Petmom - October 1, 2005 02:10 PM (GMT)
A fish...................... :D
Matthew - October 3, 2005 05:13 AM (GMT)
Tropcial depression 19
Forecast 2#
19 fades earlier this morning.
The remants of the depression are moving northwestward. In should keep on that track through out the next 24 to 36 hours. The enviroment is unfaverable for redevelopment.
This is the last forecast on the system
Forecaster Matthew
Forecast 2#
19 fades earlier this morning.
The remants of the depression are moving northwestward. In should keep on that track through out the next 24 to 36 hours. The enviroment is unfaverable for redevelopment.
This is the last forecast on the system
Forecaster Matthew