Tropical storm Stan
Forecast one


Stan regains tropical storm as it moves off Yuctan.


Recon has found that the max winds at 850 millibars. Is 43 knots=39.56 mph surface at .8 reduce. With a pressure of 1003 millibars. Quickscat data from 7:12 UTC shown that it still has a tight/Defined LLC.


Upper level shear is between 5 to 10 mph. Which is faverable for tropical cyclone development.

The fact that it was over the Yuctan the core of the cyclone could of faded leaving the overall cirulation. In which case Isidor 2003. The GFDL(00z) Show a broad system...In which only starts to develop a core durning the last 12 to 24 hours before landfall. As of the the first satellite of the black out shows a well defined LLC with little convection over it. Large blow up of convection has formed to the east. In banding has greatly improved to the west. The Ship models show it getting to 66 knots at 48 hours. The Gfdl to 58 knots at 30 hours.

The Gfs/ECMWF shows a strong ridge over the northern Gulf coast, over the next 24 to 72 hours. Surface obs shows this ridge is centered near WV/NC. With it strenching over the northern Gulf coast. 00z Gfs shows this ridge building stronger over the next 24 hours. In fact it builds it to 1044 millibars off southeastern Canada durning the next 24 hours. The CMC also agrees with a building ridge to its north. The GFDL(18z)/CMC(00z) also turns it more to the southwest after 24 to 36 hours. The ukmet(00z)also agrees with a turn to the southwest. Newest 00z Gfdl still shows a west-southwest movement after 24 hours. 00z Gfs just off the presses shows a slow down near 95 west after 24 hours. It drifts it southwestward to 60 hours. The hurricane models agree with most of the thinking.

The forecast thinking is for a westward track for the next 24 to 30 hours. Fellowed by a slight turn to the west-southwest afterwards. Landfall near 36 hours...Near 20.5.


0 40 mph
12 45 mph
24 50 mph
36 60 mph
48 40 mph inland

Forecaster Matthew

I agree with that forecast although I think you are being modest with your intesity. I see stan reaching cat1 status due to high SST's and low shear as you metioned.

Yeah I thought going over the Yuctan would of destroyed the core. But it looks like instead of a Isidor. Its going to be a Keith 2000 like system.

Tropical storm Stan
Forecast 2#

Stan Strengthing as it moves southwestward...


Recon finds that Stan is deeping very fast. 5 millibars with in a short time of a hour or so. Satellite shows minus 80 or above cloud tops. With very good outflow out of all quads. Upper level shear is very faverable/SST. Also recon has found a 9 degree differents between the outside eyewall/Inner eye. Which makes this system very healthy. Highest winds believe it or not from Flight level has been 48 knots flight level...Which was from 700 millibars or 49.6 mph at the surface...Data from closer to the surface a drop sound was 52 knots=53.8 mph at the surface. Sab t numbers show a 4.0=65 knots. Tropical cyclones likely have higher winds that the Recon doe's not sample...In also the deeping would mean that the winds are likely increasing. The winds on Stan are increased to 65 mph/55 knots. The cyclone could become a hurriacne soon.




Recon data found that the cyclone had picked up speed to 10 mph. With the center placed near 19.3/94.1...The latest Gfdl(00z) shows the cyclone moving inland. Some where near 28 hours. It shows a southwest or west-southwest movement for the next 12 hours. Fellowed by a turn more west-southwestward, from 18 to 30 hours. Landfall near 18.5/19 north. Gfs 00z moves the system near the Gfdl making landfall around 36 hours. Cmc(00z) shows a southwest movement into Mexico making landfall near 18 to 24 hours. That model might be slightly fast. Nogaps(00z)shows the cyclone turning to the west durning the next 12 hours. Then a hook to the southwest after 24 hours. Making landfall around 30 hours. The Ukmet(00z) fellows the Gfdl/Gfs thinking....

Also should be noted that the Hurricane models(Lbar,Bamd,Bamm) Show it turning westward...But the overall Global thinking is for a west-southwest or southwest movement through out the period. While the new 06z hurricane models show the southward placement. They all bring it to the coast then inland at around 24 hours. In fact they bring the cyclone to the east of my thinking.

The surface maps show a strong area of high pressure over the Eastern United states...Fingering its self into a broad based high into the gulf of Mexico. The Gfs model forecasts this area of high pressure to keep Stan moving at least to the west...For the next 36 hours. So the forecast for Stan, should be for a west-southwest or southwest movement up intill landfall around 26 to 30 hours. To note the model also weakens the high slightly after 36 hours. If the cyclone where to stay off the coast at the time it would likely turn more westward. But the forecast calls for the remants of the cyclone to turn more westward over land. A landfall near 19 north on the Mexicane coast is forecasted.


The ship model brings the cyclone to 83 knots at the coast...Around 24 hours. It also should be noted that the Gfdl(00z) quickly makes it a Major hurricane by 24 hours. As the model moves the cyclone inland around 28 hours like noted above. It makes it a cat4 with 115 knot winds....The fact that the temp(Inner/OUtter eye) has risen from 9 degrees differents to only 5...Which might be a sign that the cyclone is starting to level off.

The thinking will fall because of that near the ship model...

0 65 mph
12 80 mph
18 90 mph
24 105 mph
30 95 mph moving inland
36 50 mph inland

Forecaster Matthew

Hurricane Stan
Speical forecast 3#

Stan becomes a hurricane...While making a suprize turn to the southwest.

The data also finds Stan a hurricane with 75 mph winds...

Data from a recon shows that the cyclone is moving southwest sout-soutwestward. Tracking shifted eastward...Also this should only give it another 12 to 18 hours max.


Forecast

0 75 mph
12 85 mph
18 60 mph inland
24 40 mph inland

Forecaster Matthew

Tropical depression Stan
Forecast 4#


Stan about to cross the coast into the Eastern Pacific...

The latest satellite shows that Stan, has a well defined overall cirulation. The overall cirualtion has done very well even for going over 10k mountains. In that might be because of the overall strong inflow. Which has been wraping into the cyclone from the Eastern Pacific. The core of the center apears to be about 60 nmi or less from crossing the coast. In already a band of convection is trying to wrap into it from the Pacific.

The 00z Gfdl takes a piece of energy(what it sees of it) out into the Eastern Pacific over 12 to 24 hours. But really doe's not show development. In which the 18z moved it back into the Gulf...Which made it a hurricane again. The 00z Gfs moves it off shore durning the next 12 to 18 hours....Fellowed by a track very very close to the coast...Say about 60 or 80 miles off shore through 36 hours. It then turns it more northwestward after then. The hurricane models keep it inland....All but the A98E model(Which is normally not very good) Is showing a track just off shore.

A subtropical system East of Florida/A weak weakness over the midwest. Could help to weaken the high presseing down on it over the next 12 to 18 hours. In which the cyclone will likely start turning more westward by 12 hours. The quastion is how far away from the coast the cyclone gets. After 24 to 30 hours a sharp high from the mid west. Sets up to the "northeast". In which will turn the cyclone more northward from 24 to 60 hours. Fellowed by yet another weakness/trough over the Pacific northwest.



Track thinking...Is for a move into the Eastern Pacific durning the next 12 hours. Fellowed by a turn more westward. Then to the northwestward after 24 hours. Which should keep the cyclone near the coast. After 30 hours a turn more northwest happen...Long range longer then 72 hours could then turn the cyclone northward.


Stremgth of cyclone. The Gfdl doe's not develop it...So thats out the window. Also ship doe's not went to make it...So this is up to the forecaster....A slow strengthing should be expected.

0 35 mph
12 40 mph Eastern Pacific
24 40 mph
36 45 mph
48 50 mph


Forecaster Matthew

Stan has died...But we still have to watch it. Because it could very well still pan out how I forecasted.