000
ABNT20 KNHC 050215
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN CENTERED OVER THE STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO.

RADAR DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS NOT FORMED YET WITHIN THE LARGE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA EASTWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OF THE LOWEST PRESSURE
WHICH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR A RAPID DEVELOPMENT BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM ON
WEDNESDAY. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TOMORROW. PLEASE CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION ON POSSIBLE LOCAL HAZARDS...INCLUDING FLOOD WATCHES OR
WARNINGS.

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on October 5, 2005


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
dissipating Tropical Depression Stan centered over the state of
oaxaca Mexico.
Radar data and surface observations indicate that a closed surface
circulation has formed just off the coast of east-central
Florida... within the large area of disturbed weather extending
from Florida eastward across the northern Bahamas. A tropical
cyclone is forming... and advisories will be initiated shortly with
a special advisory. A reconnaissance aircraft will be available to
investigate this system later today.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 051121
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
730 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED WITHIN THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NORTH
OF THE BAHAMAS.

AT 730 AM EDT...1130Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 730 AM EDT...1130Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 20
MILES... EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND ABOUT 155 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.

TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH... AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK... THE
CENTER OF TAMMY WILL BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA TODAY. DUE TO THE ANGLE OF APPROACH TO THE COASTLINE...
THE SPECIFIC LOCATION AND TIME OF LANDFALL OF THE CENTER ARE
UNCERTAIN. ADDITIONALLY...MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS
ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 730 AM EDT POSITION...28.4 N... 80.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

Tropical Storm Tammy Special Discussion Number 1


Statement as of 7:30 am EDT on October 05, 2005



radar imagery and surface observations indicate that a well-defined
surface circulation has developed during the past few hours within
the large area of disturbed weather north of the Bahamas and over
northern Florida. The overall organization of the system is
sufficient to classify it as a tropical cyclone. WSR-88D radar
imagery began to depict a closed circulation after about 06z this
morning... which became well-defined by 08z about 40 miles east of
Melbourne Florida. Surface wind direction observations along the
east-central Florida coast are consistent with the location of the
circulation on radar... although the winds near and to the west of
the center are weak. All of the stronger winds and convection
occupy the northeastern semicircle of the system... most of it well
removed from the center. Ship and buoy observations of 30 kt have
been common this morning... but mostly outside of the regions of
strongest radar echoes... so it seems safe to assume that tropical
storm force winds are occurring in areas of deepest convection.
The advisory intensity is set to 35 kt.
Tropical Storm Tammy is moving fairly rapidly toward the
north-northwest...with estimated initial motion of 335/14 based
primarily on radar fixes. The steering is being provided by the
southerly flow in between a developing mid/upper level low in the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and a ridge over the western Atlantic. The
dynamical models forecast the low over the Gulf to deepen somewhat
while the ridge over the mid-Atlantic coast moves offshore.
Therefore... only a subtle Bend to the west in the heading during
the next couple of days is forecast... with a gradual decrease in
forward speed. Due to The Angle of approach of the center of Tammy
to the coastline... it is difficult to specify the landfall time or
location of the center. However... it is more important to focus
on the large area of winds and convection to the north and east of
the center... which necessitates a Tropical Storm Warning for a
Long Stretch of coastline. Since Tammy is under moderate southerly
shear... only slight strengthening appears likely... and the
asymmetric cloud pattern will probably persist.
Tammy has the potential to be a significant rainfall event for
portions of the southeastern United States.


Forecaster Knabb


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 05/1130z 28.4n 80.3w 35 kt
12hr VT 05/1800z 29.4n 81.1w 40 kt...near coastline
24hr VT 06/0600z 30.9n 82.4w 30 kt...inland
36hr VT 06/1800z 31.9n 83.5w 25 kt...dissipating
48hr VT 07/0600z 32.8n 84.4w 20 kt...remnant low
72hr VT 08/0600z...dissipated

000
WTNT41 KNHC 051433
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005

AT 13Z THE CENTER OF TAMMY PASSED OVER NOAA BUOY 41009...WHICH
REPORTED A PRESSURE JUST UNDER 1004 MB. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOY
AND NWS RADAR INDICATE THAT TAMMY IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT
12 KT. THIS RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK MAY BE A RESPONSE TO
THE ASYMMETRIC DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION...WHICH REMAINS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. TAMMY IS LOCATED BETWEEN A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN TAMMY TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THE CENTER WILL JUMP OR
REFORM TO THE RIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTION. THE 00Z
CANADIAN MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON TAMMY
OVERNIGHT...AND I AM GIVING THIS MODEL MORE THAN THE USUAL AMOUNT
OF WEIGHT THIS MORNING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BECAUSE TAMMY IS MOVING
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA COAST...AND BECAUSE MOST OF THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY IS WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...THE
PRECISE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE LANDFALL OF THE CENTER IS OF
RELATIVELY LITTLE IMPORTANCE.

DOPPLER RADAR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS ALOFT...ABOUT
35 KT. BASED ON EARLIER SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS THE INTENSITY IS
PRESUMED TO STILL BE NEAR 35 KT. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE STORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE COULD ABATE JUST
A LITTLE BIT BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO
PREVENT RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

TAMMY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 28.9N 80.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 30.2N 81.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 31.4N 82.6W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 07/0000Z 32.3N 83.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTNT31 KNHC 051742
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2005

...TAMMY A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT PARALLELS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF FLAGLER
BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA.

GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT 20
MILES NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. BECAUSE TAMMY IS CURRENTLY MOVING ON A TRACK ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE...THE SPECIFIC LOCATION AND TIME OF
LANDFALL OF THE CENTER ARE UNCERTAIN. ADDITIONALLY...MOST OF THE
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...29.4 N... 80.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTNT41 KNHC 052048
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2005

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TAMMY FOUND PEAK FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT ABOUT 150 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THESE
DATA SUPPORT A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 45 KT. THE CREW MADE VISUAL
ESTIMATES OF 50 TO 55 KT IN A FEW SPOTS SO THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE
COULD BE A SHADE LOW. SINCE THE CENTER IS ONLY A FEW HOURS FROM
LANDFALL...LITTLE ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING WELL-REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER...ONLY A SLOW DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY AFTER THE
CENTER MOVES INLAND.

THE CENTER MAKE A JAB AT THE COASTLINE LATE THIS MORNING BUT THEN
RETURNED TO ITS PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12.
TAMMY REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TAMMY TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 30.1N 81.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 31.4N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 06/1800Z 32.2N 83.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Tropical Storm Tammy Intermediate Advisory Number 3a


Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on October 05, 2005



...Center of Tammy moved inland...strong winds still offshore...
At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the Tropical Storm Warning south of Fernandina
Beach has been discontinued. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in
effect from Fernandina Beach northward to South Santee River South
Carolina. Please consult products issued by local National Weather
Service forecast offices concerning possible gale warnings outside
of the Tropical Storm Warning area.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

Doppler radar and surface observations indicate that the center of
Tammy moved inland near Mayport Florida within the past hour. At 8
PM EDT...0000z...the center was estimated near latitude 30.5 north
...Longitude 81.6 west...very near Jacksonville Florida.

Tammy is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On the
forecast track...the center of Tammy should continue to move father
inland over extreme and southeastern Georgia.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. These
winds are confined to an area to the north and northeast of the
center and mainly over water. A gradual weakening should begin
tonight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles to the
north and east of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.

Tammy is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall over portions
of southeastern Georgia...eastern South Carolina...and southeastern
North Carolina...with isolated maximum amounts of 8 to 10 inches.

Isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon and tonight over
northeastern Florida...southeastern Georgia...and eastern South
Carolina.

Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...30.5 N... 81.6 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1001 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Avila

000
WTNT31 KNHC 060231
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2005

...TAMMY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED EARLY THURSDAY.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES CONCERNING POSSIBLE GALE WARNINGS OUTSIDE OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
TAMMY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST
OR ABOUT 40 MILES...NORTHWEST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.

TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO AN AREA TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND MAINLY OVER WATER. WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...30.8 N... 82.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

000
WTNT41 KNHC 060231
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2005

RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
TAMMY MOVED INLAND NEAR MAYPORT FLORIDA ABOUT 23Z AND SINCE
THEN...THE
CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CENTER MAINLY OVER WATER.

TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CYCLONE SHOULD DEGENERATE
INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 30.8N 82.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 32.0N 83.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 07/0000Z 33.0N 85.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTNT31 KNHC 060556
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2005

...CENTER OF TAMMY CONTINUES MOVING INLAND BUT RAINBANDS STILL
COMING ONSHORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS
MORNING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES CONCERNING POSSIBLE GALE WARNINGS OUTSIDE
OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR NEAR
WAYCROSS GEORGIA.

TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE NEAR 40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS
ARE CONFINED TO AN AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER... MAINLY OVER
WATER BUT ALSO NEAR THE COASTLINE IN THE WARNING AREA. WEAKENING
IS FORECAST... AND TAMMY WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...31.2 N... 82.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

000
WTNT31 KNHC 060840
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2005

...TAMMY STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN RAINBANDS
CROSSING PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF
ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES CONCERNING POSSIBLE GALE WARNINGS OUTSIDE OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS INLAND OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA ABOUT 130 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA. HOWEVER... MOST OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY ARE WELL TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER AND ARE STILL AFFECTING THE
COASTLINE IN THE WARNING AREA.

THE CENTER OF TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...
AND THIS MOTION GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CIRCULATION OF TAMMY
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE
WINDS ARE CONFINED TO AN AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER... MAINLY
OVER WATER BUT ALSO NEAR THE COASTLINE IN THE WARNING AREA.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER CONTINUES MOVING INLAND... AND
TAMMY WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... AND
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
TO 10 INCHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...31.6 N... 83.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$

000
WTNT41 KNHC 060853
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2005

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TAMMY CONTINUES TO
MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA. HOWEVER... RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS RAINBANDS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER ARE
STILL COMING ONSHORE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA. VARIOUS SHIPS AND BUOYS CONTINUE TO REPORT
SUSTAINED WINDS AT OR NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WITHIN THESE
BANDS... SO TAMMY REMAINS A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM... AND A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS.

TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CYCLONE SHOULD DEGENERATE
INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LATER TODAY... AND THE
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 31.6N 83.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 32.4N 84.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTNT31 KNHC 061427
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TAMMY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2005

...TAMMY WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TAMMY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA NEAR OZARK.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH. A CONTINUED
WESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY
UNTIL THE DEPRESSION DISSIPATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS... OVER
WATER MAINLY OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

TAMMY AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...31.7 N... 85.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTNT41 KNHC 061426
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2005

SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG THE COAST HAVE DECREASED BELOW TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...AND THE COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED. ANY REMAINING
GALE FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE HAVE LITTLE OR NO CONNECTION TO TAMMY'S
CIRCULATION...AND TAMMY IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING
ELONGATED ALONG A WSW-ENE AXIS...AND DISSIPATION IS ANTICIPATED
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED UNTIL THAT OCCURS. A PORTION OF
THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY COULD TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND ENTER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
UNFAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION.

FUTURE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TAMMY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION SYSTEM.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 31.7N 85.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 31.5N 87.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTNT31 KWNH 062057
TCPAT1


PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 7 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TAMMY
NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD
5 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2005

...THE REMNANTS OF TAMMY MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

ALL FLOOD WATCHES ALONG THE PATH OF TAMMY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 5 PM EDT...21Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF TAMMY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST...OR ABOUT
75 MILES WEST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF TAMMY HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND ARE NOW MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT ABOUT
20 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 29.65 INCHES OR 1004 MB.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 8AM EDT

LOCATION STORM TOTAL
======== ===========

...GEORGIA...

STERLING 7.40
DARIEN 7.15
JESUP 6.36
BRUNSWICK/MALCOLM 6.18
HUNTER 5.98
SAVANNAH 5.57
EDEN 5.54
PORT WENTWORTH 5.29
KITE 5.11
WOODBINE 5.02

...FLORIDA...

MAYPORT 3.47
SAINT AUGUSTINE 3.33
FERNANDINA BEACH 3.31
DAYTONA BEACH 2.12
JACKSONVILLE 1.98
SANFORD/ORLANDO 1.94

...SOUTH CAROLINA...

HARDEEVILLE 4.96
JAMESTOWN 4.58
BEAUFORT 2.50

...NORTH CAROLINA...

CURRIE 2.50
SHALLOTTE 2.31
ELIZABETHTOWN 2.27

...ALABAMA...

AUBURN 1.54


SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF TAMMY. HEAVIER RAINS
ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES... BUT THESE
RAINS ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY... BUT ARE THE RESULT OF DEEP
MOISTURE COMING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...30.2 NORTH...85.6 WEST...
MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH AT 20 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15
MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 29.65 INCHES OR
1004 MB.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF TAMMY ISSUED BY
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

TRIMARCO/TERRY

$$