This morning, Tropical Storm Tammy developed well north of the position that had been initialized with regard to Invest.92L. As a result, it is unlikely that Tammy will cross the Florida Panhandle and emerge over the Gulf of Mexico. Instead, it appears likely that Tammy will make landfall on Florida’s east coast and then turn toward the north toward a developing weakness.

As a result, Tammy’s remnants should bring a significant rainfall to the Southeast. Later, its remnants should sweep northward along a slowly advancing cold front and provide the parched Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions with a widespread heavy rainfall. Baroclinic deepening might lead to a period of gusty winds, particularly in coastal sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Since 1950, none of the tropical cyclones that formed in the region bounded by 26.4-30.4/78.3-82.3 made landfall on the Florida Panhandle or westward. Furthermore, since 1851, none of the tropical cyclones that were approaching Florida from the east within 65 nautical miles of the position where Tammy formed made it across the Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico.

As a result, I have high confidence that Tammy is not likely to pose a threat to the Florida Panhandle. It should make landfall in eastern Florida to the south-southeast of Jacksonville and then turn to the north then somewhat east of north.

Landfall Estimate:


Estimated Track:
29.5N 81.1W
30.0N 81.5W
30.5N 81.9W
31.0N 82.2W

Estimated Strength at Landfall:
Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph

do you think tammy may head more wnw and not more north?
good work as usual

Verification:

Tropical Storm Tammy made landfall just to the south-southeast of Jacksonville yesterday evening.



Although it passed within 15 miles of the point I had noted, the actual landfall error was 49 miles. A full verification will be posted either later tonight or tomorrow.

It is now heading toward the west-northwest. Later, its moisture should head to the north and then north-northeast along a cold front. As a result, a widespread significant rainfall is likely across the parched Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions.

Estimated Track:
29.5N 81.1W; Actual: 29.5N 80.9W; Error: 12 miles--5.0 hours in advance
30.0N 81.5W; Actual: 30.0N 81.1W; Error: 24 miles--7.0 hours in advance
30.5N 81.9W; Actual: 30.5N 81.6W; Error: 18 miles--10.5 hours in advance
31.0N 82.2W; Actual: 31.0N 82.4W; Error: 12 miles--15.0 hours in advance

Estimated Strength at Landfall:
Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph; Actual: 50 mph; Error: 5 mph--9.5 hours in advance

good work, it did move into alabama i think

You guys it looks like the noreast will get tons of rain from this and a cold front. As the cold front mores more east it will enchance the rainfalls around the major citys. Expect up to 3 inches in places maybe way more rain.