A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


To my knowledge it appears to be at the surface. With alot of convecton...Even if its extratropical last night it is sure becoming tropical today. Its very close to becoming a cyclone.

Matthew, I must say - I use those beautiful three words as thee ending to most statements I make too....depending.....I will also use my other favorite,

Thank you very much !!!

:silly:

A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 525 NM NE OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 25N57W MOVING NW 5-10 KT. THE LOW IS
COLLOCATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N54W AND IS
HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY E OF THE
SURFACE CENTER FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 54W-58W. DEEP MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN
45W-52W. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER
THE PAST 24 HRS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY W/NW OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS REMAINING FAR FROM ANY LAND AREAS EXCEPT FOR
BERMUDA.

Looks like that will screw up the wx here in philly over the weekend with rains..

very possible kman. i think it will be a depression soon

The nhc liks to take there time. I think for it just having a surface LLC with convction=subtropical at least. But we will see. Come On Vince give 2005 second place for its self!!!

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Subtropical storm!

08/0545 UTC 25.8N 56.7W ST2.5/2.5 95

000
WONT41 KNHC 081241
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND THAT THE
SYSTEM MAY BE ACQUIRING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE...A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER BEVEN

$$

000
WTNT42 KNHC 081443
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSIRE AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CALLED A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION...
SUBTROPICAL INSTEAD OF TROPICAL DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH A
LARGE-MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE CENTER IS
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE FEATURE...
WITH AN ELONGATED OUTER BAND IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25-30 KT FROM TAFB AND 35-40 KT
FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS A BLEND OF THESE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 320/13...UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE WHILE THE OVERNIGHT MOTION WAS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THE LAST
FEW IMAGES SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD THE LEFT. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTH. AFTER 48 HR OR SO...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES LOW
CONFIDENCE AS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE. IF THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE RIGHT...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL FORM
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION...WHICH
COULD STEER THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE
NEW LOW IS SLOWER TO FORM OR TROUGHING CONTINUES ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AS SUGGESTED BY THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH. THE TRACK
FORECAST AFTER 48 HR WILL CALL FOR A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN AT A
DECREASING FORWARD SPEED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH ABOUT 10 KT OF SHEAR. THE
SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO SOME PULSES OF
SHEAR DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...AND THEN UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR AFTER THREE DAYS. THE GFDL AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL
LOSE THE SYSTEM IN 36-72 HR. ALL OF THIS...COMBINED WITH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26C-27C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SUGGEST
THE CYCLONE COULD STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...WITH
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT IN 48 KT. IF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE
CORRECT ON THE FORMATION OF THE SECOND LOW...OR IF THE SHIPS MODEL
IS CORRECT ABOUT THE SHEAR...THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR. THERE IS A CHANCE THE CYCLONE
COULD FULLY TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 28.1N 59.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 29.2N 60.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 30.4N 63.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 31.2N 66.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 32.3N 68.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 34.0N 71.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 36.0N 72.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 13/1200Z 37.0N 72.0W 40 KT

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005

...CORRECTED TROPICAL TO SUBTROPICAL IN FOURTH PARAGRAPH...

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.0
WEST OR ABOUT 450 MILES... 725 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. A
SHIP NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE
OF 1009.5 MB...29.81 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...28.1 N... 59.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT32 KNHC 081737
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9
WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES... 620 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...28.6 N... 59.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT32 KNHC 082036
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
ORGANIZATION...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.8
WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES... 520 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH
...32 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION
COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM
LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...29.1 N... 60.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT42 KNHC 082053
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO HAS
DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY...WITH THE OUTER BAND SEEN
EARLIER DISSIPATING AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMING FULLY EXPOSED
FOR A TIME. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A NEW BURST HAS
FORMED JUST WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE SUBTROPICAL 35-40 KT FROM SAB...SUBTROPICAL 25-30 KT
FROM TAFB...AND TROPICAL 25 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL REMAIN 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES AND THE
OVERALL ORGANIZATION BEING SIMILAR TO THAT OF 6 HR AGO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/17. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. BEFORE
36 HR...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH
SOME DECELERATION BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
A LARGE MID/ UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH. AFTER 36-48 HR...THE
TRACK FORECAST BECOMES LOW CONFIDENCE AS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE. IF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE RIGHT...A
SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL FORM SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION...WHICH COULD STEER THE SYSTEM MORE
WESTWARD. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE NEW LOW IS SLOWER TO FORM OR
TROUGHING CONTINUES ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AS
SUGGESTED BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE
TOWARD THE NORTH. THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER 48 HR CONTINUES TO CALL
FOR A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN AT A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED ON THE
PREMISE THAT THE U. S. MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM.

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH ABOUT 15 KT OF SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO PULSES OF SHEAR DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS...AND THEN UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT SHEAR AFTER THREE
DAYS. THE GFDL AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL LOSE THE SYSTEM IN
36-72 HR. ALL OF THIS...COMBINED WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
26C-27C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SUGGEST THE CYCLONE COULD
STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST
STRENGTHENING A LITTLE ABOVE THAT OF THE SHIPS MODEL... WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 50 KT IN 48 KT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
A FASTER WEAKENING AFTER 72 HR THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IF THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE CORRECT ON THE FORMATION OF THE SECOND
LOW...OR IF THE SHIPS MODEL IS RIGHT ABOUT THE SHEAR... THE CYCLONE
COULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD
FULLY TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 29.1N 60.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 30.1N 62.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 31.1N 65.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 31.9N 67.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 33.0N 69.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 34.5N 72.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 12/1800Z 36.0N 72.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 13/1800Z 37.5N 72.5W 30 KT

000
WTNT32 KNHC 082359
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT... 0000Z... THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0
WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES... 430 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR BERMUDA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
STORM LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB... 29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION... 29.2 N... 62.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD... WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/LAUER

WTNT42 KNHC 090300
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NO
LONGER PRODUCING ANY DEEP CONVECTION... AND WHAT CONVECTION THERE
HAD BEEN EARLIER THIS EVENING WAS NOT AT ALL ORGANIZED ABOUT THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER... WHICH IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED. THEREFORE...
THE SYSTEM NO LONGER HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF EITHER A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE DEMISE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS
BEEN BROUGHT ON BY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTH. THIS SHEAR IS NOT
FORECAST TO ABATE ANY TIME SOON... SO REGENERATION APPEARS
UNLIKELY... BUT THE REMANT LOW WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE SEEMINGLY
REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPING NEW CONVECTION.

THE TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A SHALLOW REMNANT
LOW AND ANTICIPATES A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION... IN THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC... FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS
UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 29.2N 62.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 09/1200Z 29.8N 65.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 10/0000Z 30.6N 67.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 10/1200Z 31.3N 69.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 11/0000Z 31.8N 71.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 12/0000Z 32.5N 73.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

From the 5:30pm TWO:

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO
IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA. SOME MODERATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED
SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... AND NEARBY SHIPS INDICATE WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH ARE OCCURRING JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE AREA AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD AT 20 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHFSAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO
IS CENTERED ABOUT 240 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE
WARMER GULFSTREAM. THIS MAY ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER OR
NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... WHICH WOULD ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO
BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHFSAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.