08/0600 UTC 32.8N 20.6W ST3.0/3.0 96 -- Atlantic Ocean

The nhc will not upgrade it based on where its at. But it is a very good looking system right now. And hopefully some day they can add it to this years list.

The system is still at 3.0st. In looks very tropical like. It also was forming a eye like hole earlier. The nhc will not upgrade because they are not sure...More research is needed. But yes to me this is a subtropical storm.

08/1800 UTC 33.0N 20.1W ST3.0/3.0 96

Deep convection has formed over the LLC. The system is looking very tropical at this moment. Banding/outflow looking good. Still holding to 3.0St=45 knots. Unbelieveable that this is not a named system.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

08/2300 UTC 33.0N 20.0W ST3.0/3.0 96
:D

50 percent closed eye...Convection deeping around it. WOW!!!

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Fsu models showing it has a warm core.
Quickscats showing it has a tight wind core.
Trmm/85H/85V data showing a closed eyewall with eye.
Visible eye on satellite.
Banding
Sab t number 3.0st.

Yeah tell me its not a tropical cyclone. Kind of reminds me of the Mets down in south America when the south Atlatnic hurricane hit them. They where saying how that was extratropical. We all know thats not true. In its not true in this case.

New burst of convection over the northwestern quad. Almost a hurricane!!!

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Here is the pic of the tropical cyclone...

09/0600 UTC 33.2N 19.6W ST3.0/3.0 96

Why on earth is this not Vince right now. It looks like a hurricane to me!!!

A well defined eye has formed!!!

i agree. it looks like a cane

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

...20TH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN AN UNUSUAL LOCATION... IN
THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES AND CLOSE TO THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE PREVIOUSLY NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE CANARY ISLANDS HAS
ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VINCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 19.2 WEST OR ABOUT
515 MILES... 830 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES. THIS POSITION
IS ALSO ABOUT 140 MILES... 225 KM... NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS.

VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...34.0 N... 19.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

941
WTNT43 KNHC 091500
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF NON-TROPICAL ORIGIN THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... IN BETWEEN THE AZORES AND
THE CANARY ISLANDS... HAS BEEN ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM IS NOW A
TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBJECTIVE
DETERMINATION. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SITUATED OVER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23-24 CELSIUS AND IS BENEATH A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... IT NOW HAS SEVERAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT
WARRANT CLASSIFICATION AS TROPICAL STORM VINCE. THE CYCLONE IS
ISOLATED AND IS QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS... PERHAPS 20-25 N MI... AND WHILE IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGER ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE... THE INNER CORE
OF CONVECTION ONLY HAS A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 100 N MI. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOT APPARENT ON SATELLITE ANIMATIONS... BUT A
07Z AMSU OVERPASS REVEALS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE. CYCLONE
PHASE SPACE ANALYSES FROM FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AND NOT VERY FAR ON THE COLD CORE SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS SUPPORTED BY A 0640Z QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS AND BY SUBTROPICAL SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND
SAB OF 3.0 BASED ON THE HEBERT-POTEAT TECHNIQUE. SINCE SUBTROPICAL
CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST DAY OR
SO... VINCE COULD EASILY BE DEEMED TO HAVE BECOME A SUBTROPICAL
STORM YESTERDAY. VINCE HAS BEEN CUT OFF FROM THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... BUT NOW SEEMS TO BE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ALONG THIS SAME HEADING IS EXPECTED UNTIL VINCE MERGES WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 34.0N 19.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 34.7N 18.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 36.3N 16.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 39.1N 13.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 11/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

BULLETIN
HURRICANE VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

...VINCE BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE PASSING NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS...
...MAINLY A HAZARD FOR MARINE INTERESTS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE VINCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 18.6 WEST OR ABOUT 535 MILES...
865 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES. THIS POSITION IS ALSO
ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM... NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS.

VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT... BUT VINCE
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES... 130 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...34.2 N... 18.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

000
WTNT43 KNHC 092055
TCDAT3
HURRICANE VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

IF IT LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE... IT PROBABLY IS... DESPITE ITS
ENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION. MOST AVAILABLE DATA SUGGESTS
VINCE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING TODAY. IN FACT... THE CIRA INTENSITY
ESTIMATE BASED ON THE EARLIER AMSU OVERPASS NEAR 07Z WAS 50 KT AND
995 MB... SO VINCE WAS PROBABLY EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER THIS MORNING
THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MORE RECENTLY... METSAT-8
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE EARLIER RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH ABOUT
20 N MI DIAMETER HAS CONTRACTED TO 15 N MI AS A BONA FIDE EYE. SOME
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT IS NOW DISCERNIBLE AROUND THE DEEP
CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN
IN MOST HURRICANES. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS RANGE
FROM 3.5 TO 4.5... WITH THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE BASED ON AN
EYE PATTERN. THESE ESTIMATES PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY OF 65 KT. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE AS
STRONG AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST...
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CONVECTION MIGHT LACK SOME VIGOR OVER THE
23-24C SSTS... BUT WE HAVE NO DATA TO CONFIRM OR DENY THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES.

VINCE IS STILL MOVING NORTHEASTWARD BUT NOT VERY FAST... ABOUT
045/5... SO IT COULD MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS
WHILE ITS OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT CHANGES LITTLE. VINCE
IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER
WATERS AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR RAMPS UP. A COLD FRONT IS SEVERAL
HUNDRED N MI NORTHWEST OF VINCE... AND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS
EASTWARD MARCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... IT SHOULD PULL VINCE
NORTHEASTWARD AT A GRADUALLY INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND SUGGEST THAT VINCE
WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... BUT IT COULD
TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF VINCE TO
COMPLETELY LOSE ITS INDENTITY.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 34.2N 18.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 35.4N 17.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 37.6N 14.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 40.5N 11.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 11/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

09/1800 UTC 34.1N 18.9W T4.0/4.0 VINCE

5 P.M. AST 10/9/2005 TROPICAL STORM VINCE UPDATE #2

This is an independent product

Vince becomes a hurricane. Residents of Portugal should monitor the progress of Vince

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Vince is located near 34.2N and 18.6W. This places the center about 125 miles NW of the Madiera Islands. The motion is to the NE near 5 m.p.h. This track, with an acceleration is expected, bringing the storm toward Portugal in a few days.

Maximum winds are estimated to be near 75 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 985mb. Little change in intensity is expected during the next day or so.

Next Update: 11 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

That is the smallest little hurricane I have ever seen. Almost no convection to it. I guess it has some storng winds at its center.

It is very well defined with a closed eye. The convection is strong enough over 23 degree water.

Also the models are shifting southward. In the sab est shows its moving almost eastward. Lets see if this can get into that channel then into the Mediterranean. Hopefully the nhc can still make Advisories if so.

Is it weird that it is so close to Europe and so strong? also will you post your forecast on rocking weather? Also if it got into the Medrtirain what would happen then?

000
WTNT33 KNHC 100223
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

...VINCE PASSING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS...
...THREAT TO SHIPPING...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VINCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 17.8 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND ABOUT
565 MILES... 910 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES.

VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...34.5 N... 17.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

000
WTNT43 KNHC 100225
TCDAT3
HURRICANE VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

THE EYE OF VINCE IS BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED...AND THE AMOUNT OF
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS DECREASED.
MOREOVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING INDICATIVE OF INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR AS THE DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT ERODED OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ALL OF THIS IS SUGGESTING THAT A WEAKENING
TREND IS IMMINENT...IF IT IS NOT ALREADY UNDERWAY. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN
INTENSITY OF 65 KT...ALTHOUGH AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NEVER
QUITE SUPPORTED HURRICANE STRENGTH. IN 24-36 HOURS...VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 35 KT AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 20 DEG C. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING...WITH VINCE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
AS IT NEARS THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
COLD FRONT BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

INITIAL MOTION...055/6...IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
HEADING. A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE...AND CAUSE VINCE
TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO NOGAPS AND THE
NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE GFS AND GFDL ARE EVEN FARTHER TO
THE RIGHT OF THE NEW NHC TRACK.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 34.5N 17.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 35.8N 15.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 38.0N 12.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 40.0N 8.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$

The eye is back,...The system is becoming better defined again. Weaking canceled!!!

What sattelite are you looking at? Must be one from many hours ago, because I just saw it on the weather channel and it is being sheared to peices... :(

But yeah two hours ago I guess it still looked ok... (attatched pic)

But now, it doesnt look so good... (dont have a pic yet)

it was expected,,, Winter123,,, the point was about the notification and the identification,,, Vince has come and gone... ;)

heres the most recent pic I could find:

Hang In there vince! :silly:

It is starting to move faster to the east...Yes the western side of the eye is open. Lets see if it can close off.

This spanish weather service model hints at vince at least holding it strength before landfall in Portugal...

It's actually surprising that a euoropean model knows how to handle a tropical system this far north... :rolleyes:

Lets see how this system handles being picked up. I'v seen systems once they get going they can hold there own. So we will see...

Good call there,, winter123,,, I am a Spanish Man so it looks pretty accurate..

Just watched the weather channel and it looks like it's moving more east now... holding it's own still... and Spain (probably portugal, actually) just issued a tropical storm advisory! :lol:

seeya tomorrow. (aka in 10 hours)

TS advisory??? batten down the hatches amigos... this is a first for these folks,,, :(