This is not a unoffical forecast...This is only to look back on.

Unnamed tropical storm
Forecast one


...A unnamed cyclone appears to have formed over the northeastern Atlatnic.


A well defined extratropical low pressure. Has shown signs of becoming tropical formation. Data out of Fsu models show that the system has developed a warmer core then outside. In the t numbers out of sab shows 3.0St. Also to note it has also closed off a eye. So the system might be quite close to hurricane strength. Quickscat data(4:42 utc) shows that it has developed a tight wind field around the center. In which would support it as a purely tropical cyclone...On top of the fact it has formed a eye. My thinking is for 55 knots at this time.

All data supports this as a tropical cyclone...In so in this case I don't have any problem with making a forecast for this system.

Also Trmm 85h data shows that it doe's in fact have a closed eye. Which is backed up by 85V data. This eye is as well defined as Ophelia's eye a month or two ago.


The cyclone has been moving little over the last day or so. Near 30 north/20 west. The 18z Gfs shows a slow movement to the northeast over the next 36 hours. Before it merges with a extratropical system.

Since the SST are already boarder line. We will forecast for a slow weaking for the next 24 hours. But there is a slight chance durning the next 12 horus...That this could become a hurricane.


Forecast
0 65 mph
12 70 mph
24 50 mph
36 40 mph

Forecaster Matthew

good forecast

Hurricane Vince
Forecast 2#


Vince becomes the farthest northeast tropical cyclone to ever form...Also becomes a hurricane...As it moves to the east-northeastward.


Data out of Sab/Airforce t numbers. Both shown Vince to have a 4.0=65 knots. While for a short time it did show that the cyclone was becoming less organized. Latest satellite shows that cold convection has wraped around...With a nearly clear eye as of 3:30 utc.

The Latest Meteosat loop shows that the cyclone is moving due east...Sab t numbers shown a .1 north/.7 east movement to back that. The front/trough is with in 10 to 15 degrees... In which is starting to push the system to the east or east-northeastward.

The 18z Gfs shows a east-northeast movement for the next 24 hours. Fellowed by a turn to the northeast. It also shows just as its moving inland a merging doe's happen. Most of the hurricane models 18z agree with a east-northeastward movement for the next 12 hours. Fellowed by a northeast then after. Making a landfall just south of 38 north. Near 36 hours. This system is not likely to be all the way merged at the time...In so there is a likely chance of this making landfall as a tropical storm. Since it seems to be moving south of the hurricane model thinking...My thinking is to the right making landfall near 36/37 north near 30 hours....


Quickscats from eariler this evening shows a tight wind field...With the hurricane force winds likely near 15=20 nmi from the center of the cyclone. Tropical storm force out to 80 to 120 nmi. In which is a very tropical wind field. Which supports this as a tropical cyclone.


The system is expecting to pick up speed durning the next 12 to 24 hours. In which should induce some shear over that time. A slow weaking is forecasted after 12 hours.


Forecast
0 75 mph
12 75 mph
18 65 mph
24 50 mph
36 45 mph inland
48 Extratropical

Forecaster Matthew

My forecast! i belive Vince will rapidly move NE and get sheared very quickly and become extratropical before it hit portugal.

Just a short forecast I don't have a lot of time!

Yeah the Jet max coming off that trough/front sheared it....But a new burst of convection is forming over the center. It might still make it.
http://www.eumetsat.int/idcplg?IdcService=...nodeId=444&l=en

looks like it MAY make it into the med. sea! :silly:

http://wind.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/meteo...playmode=Endlos

The quastion is can it use the warmer waters once there. To reform?

Does a storm like vince really NEED warm waters? I think the real question is will the shear let up.

Vince is another kind of storm. I think the upper air is very cold. In which makes the difference between surface/upper levels. In which helps to make Vince!

How can that be matthew?

Hurricanes get there energy from temperature differnces. The larger the difference the stronger the hurricane. Tchp/SST of normally 26c is needed for a normal hurricane..If there is a very cold air mass above then the SST's below it can be cooler. It also has to do with the enviroment the system developed.

How often does it happen with hurricanes in unusal locations? Also, occationally, even in Norway we have water spouts........................Not long ago i saw a picture (can't find it now) of a water spout in a harbor in Norway.............



:blink:


Found this picture from the North Sea...............................

The frequency of the unusual seems to be increasing,,, sporadically... I have never seen or heard of a Hurricane that comes out of nowhere in the Eastern Atlantic and making its way onshore in Europe,, That is not to say that it hasn't happened before,, Much like the Hurricanes that came to life in the Southern Basin of the Atlantic, almost two seasons ago,,, Something seems to be taking place within our Global Climate...

Now whether it has to do with a cycle or a magnetic shift,, is yet to be determined,, perhaps we may never arrive at a definitive answer,,, that facts do remain though,, we are seeing things that are,, infact,, unusual,, to what we have come to learn..

Brazilian Hurricane

Could it be that some changes would have happend regardless of what we do? Or are we to blame for most of the changes? Should we be more responsible for how we are treating the planet? Just more questions I am afraid.......................

I saw images of the Mediterranean hurricane and thought it was spooky...................
Even more so than your link to Brazil.................

:blink: