This cluster of storms in the central caribbean looks like it may be getting better organized...



Has some nice outflow to it. What do you think?

Shear levels down 20 knots over it...In which is favorable for development. But there seems to get pretty unfaveble to the north. We will need to watch this. Check out a possible development near 25 north/62 west.

Well, that too. Either way, it just means a hell of a lot of rain for the northeast the next few days. More rain...:blink:

a storm could form in the nw carib in a few days

A broad area of low pressure is forming at 15.5 north/77 west. It is moving slowly westward. I think if convection can keep firing over it. We may have a depression durning the next 36 hours. Come Wilma!!!

LLC developing near 17.5/77.5. The outflow in convection is developing...Meaning that upper level winds are becoming faverable. It looks like we got some northern bands wraping into the system...Which are wraping into the system over Jamica. The system is centered about 80 miles to the south of Jamica....

I expect development...Wilma Wima Wilma!!!! :silly:

Shear is 5 to 10 knots...Strong upper level high forming over it. With outflow jet forming out of the north/south. Convection is forming nicely over the LLC.

Gfs slow movement next 48 hours...Over Jamica.
Cmc Slow west-northwest or northwest movement over the next 72 hours. Into the Caymens.
Ukmet slow movement to the west or west-southwest into central America.
Nogaps system into the Yuctan.

I expect Wilma!!! :silly:

The LLC is right off the coast of southeastern Jamica. Near that big blow up of convection. Lets see if it stays off shore.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 142104
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO INCREASED AND BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO POSSIBLY FORM LATER TONIGHT
OR ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... AND INTERESTS IN JAMAICA... CUBA... AND THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY.

A 1005 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE ISLAND OF JAMAICA NEAR
18N77W...ATTACHED TO A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM
NICARAGUA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE LOW AND TROUGH HAVE BEGUN
TO SEPARATE THEMSELVES FROM THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC
WATERS AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR THE LOW
CENTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER JAMAICA EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE S COAST OF
HISPANIOLA...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 73W-79W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IS OVER
HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 68W-73W. AN AMSU-B PASS AT 1931
UTC INDICATED THAT RAIN RATES JUST OFFSHORE FROM KINGSTON
JAMAICA WERE NEAR 0.8"/HOUR SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF JAMAICA WITH A
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE LOW HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS
ESPECIALLY IF THE CENTER MOVES AND REMAINS OVER WATER...AND THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS ABLE TO PERSIST.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 150229
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR JAMAICA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO INCREASED AND
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER
TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... AND INTERESTS IN JAMAICA... CUBA... AND
THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA... EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA... AND HAITI. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY... IF NECESSARY.

A SURFACE 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF JAMAICA. ITS POSITION HAS BEEN JUMPING AROUND THE
ISLAND OF JAMAICA SINCE 14/1200 UTC...WHEN IT STARTED OUT IN
THE NORTHWESTERN COASTAL WATERS...THEN MOVED TO NORTH CENTRAL
COASTAL JAMAICA...AND NOW TO ITS 15/0000 UTC POSITION. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WATERS
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI...AND ALL AROUND THE LOW CENTER IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS OFF JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...THROUGH THE 1005 MB LOW
CENTER...TO EASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA...AND THROUGH NICARAGUA
TO EASTERN EL SALVADOR. THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPPER LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS...
GRADUALLY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND
RESIDENTS IN JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND HAITI.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TENTATIVELY IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY IF NECESSARY.

The center is just off the southeastern coast of Jamica. Data from both obs/quickscats show that this system doe's now have a LLC. In the system is becoming organized fast. I think this is a depression...

It is moving at 3 knots to the southwest. The models take it along the southern coast of Jamica. Then take it west-southwest.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151507
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
JUST WEST OF JAMAICA. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS
SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
LARGE AREA OF SQUALLS WHICH IS ALREADY AFFECTING JAMAICA AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE WARM WATERS BEWTEEN JAMAICA
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN A HURRICANE. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...CUBA
...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM.

12 P.M. EDT 10/15/2005 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

This is an independent product

The disturbance that has been bringing heavy rainfall to Jamaica has become much better organized. Visible satellite imagery indicates that the feature may have already developed into a tropical depression. Recon will investigate later this afternoon to confirm.

This feature is expected to move to the west for the next couple of days at a slow speed and will likely become a hurricane over the NW Caribbean as conditions are very favorable for development. All residents of the NW Caribbean need to closely monitor the progress of this developing feature.

Forecaster: Ortt

000
WTNT34 KNHC 152137
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1 CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005



...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH MAYBE REQUIRED FOR
FOR GRAND CAYMAN LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8
WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND
ABOUT 85 MILES... 140 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING WESTWARD NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND THIS
SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N... 78.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

000
WTNT44 KNHC 152105
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005


THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTION AND SURFACE
CIRCULATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
CIRCULATION IS RATHER BROAD AND THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE COULD
BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 MILES FROM THE INITIAL POINT IN THE ADVISORY.
THIS IS COMMON IN DEVELOPING SYSTEMS. THE CYCLONE HAS NOT DEVELOPED
A TIGHT INNER CORE YET. DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOWS SO
FAR A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BOTH SHIPS AND THE
GFDL SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...THE GFDL MAKES THIS CYCLONE A VERY
INTENSE HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN CUBA AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...AND MORE ALONG THE
LINE OF THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BLOCKING ANY NORTHWARD
MOTION AND IS KEEPING VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS. BY THEN...A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE COULD DEVELOP OVER FLORIDA
AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFDL...THE
UK...THE ECMWF AND THE NOGAPS MODELS. THE GFS DOES NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOP THE CYCLONE AND DOES NOT CARRY THE SYSTEM
MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE COULD BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER...BOTH GENESIS AND INTENSIFICATION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 17.6N 78.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 17.5N 79.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 80.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 80.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 17.5N 81.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 17.5N 82.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 82.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W 85 KT

2100 UTC 10/15/2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24 FORECAST #1

This is an independent product

Recon has found that a surface circulation exists with the disturbance near Jamaica; thus, it is a tropical depression. Winds are relatively light; therefore, 25KT is the initial intensity.

Steering currents are weak and are expected to remain weak through the next 5 days. Therefore, the motion is expected to be quite slow, and the cyclone will likely remain in the NW Caribbean for the entire forecast period. The model consensus is for a track to the WSW. I do not feel comfortable forecasting a south of due west motion, when I do not see a very large ridge to the north. Therefore, the forecast track is mainly to the west through the period, with a slight north component to account for the Beta Effect.

Recon winds justify an initial intensity of 25KT. The only thing that may hinder intensification is dry air to the north. GFDL intensifies the depression to 898 in 5 days, similar to Rita’s peak intensity, while SHIPS is more conservative. With conditions expected to be fairly favorable, and the oceanic heat content high, I will forecast the 120 hour intensity to be 115KT, category 4 status. The intensification is slow initially to allow for the center to consolidate.

Initial: 17.6N 78.6W 25KT
12 Hour: 17.7N 79.4W 30KT
24 Hour: 17.8N 80.2W 35KT
36 Hour: 17.9N 80.9W 40KT
48 Hour: 18.0N 81.5W 50KT
72 Hour: 18.2N 82.5W 65KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 18.4N 83.5W 90KT
120 Hour: 18.6N 84.5W 115KT

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

this could be really worrysome.

:o Looks like we could use up all our storm names this year. Boy, this is a first. Plus, there is a low pressure system headed down that could steer this thing either way, the way I see it. I sure hope it steers it to the west. I am on the west central gulf coast of Florida. Right on the gulf! Not a pretty picture at all. We are already under a low pressure area right now, plus another one on it's way? Whoa! Be interesting to see where this thing goes once it gets into the straights.

I do hope to watch histroy has this becomes tropical storm Wilma. In really we have to watch these kinds of Caribbean systems.. Mitchelle 2001,Keith 2000,Lenny 1999,Mitch 1998. It has all the earmarks of a interesting systems.


Welcome back Gulf breeze. :silly:

this one could be big

Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Caymans

The chairman of the Cayman Islands' National Hurricane Center, Donovan Ebanks, said authorities had been monitoring the weather for several days.

"Because of where it is, and the fact that it is projected to become a tropical storm by tomorrow and possibly a hurricane in a couple of days, we've decided to go ahead and issue a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch," he said.

link:http://wireservice.wired.com/wired/story.asp?section=Breaking&storyId=1102850&tw=wn_wire_story

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

...SLOWLY MOVING DEPRESSION GRADUALLY ORGANIZING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 215 MILES... 345 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT
125 MILES... 205 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 79.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

THE CYCLONE IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES AND DOES NOT YET HAVE
VERY MUCH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER... BUT OUTER
BANDING FEATURES SEEM TO BE GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING. THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENVELOPE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED... AS IS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. A 23Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS HAD SOME 30-35 KT
VECTORS THAT ARE PROBABLY RAIN CONTAMINATED... SO THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AT ABOUT 225/3. THE WEAK STEERING RESULTS FROM THE
DEPRESSION BEING STUCK BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THIS RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE
FLOW AROUND THE GULF RIDGE APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY GREATER
INFLUENCE FOR NOW... AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE GULF
RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...
THE MODELS SHOW THE GULF RIDGE MIGRATING WESTWARD... LEAVING A
GROWING WEAKNESS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND ALLOWING THE
WESTWARD-BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO BEGIN PUSHING THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD. SINCE THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR SO GRADUALLY... NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS... EXCEPT FOR
THE CANADIAN... FORECAST THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO LEAVE THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS TO
ADJUST FOR THE INITIAL MOTION... THEN BACK ON TRACK THEREAFTER...
AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL.

ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. EVEN THOUGH THE FORWARD MOTION WILL BE SLOW... THE
LARGE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPLY FUEL FOR
INTENSIFICATION WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK BENEATH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE COUPLED GFDL SYSTEM FORECASTS A
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WITH CONTINUED STRENGTHENING TO GREATER
THAN 90 KT IN LESS THAN 72 HOURS... WHILE SHIPS SHOWS STEADY BUT
MORE CONSERVATIVE STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
BETWEEN AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 17.0N 79.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 16.8N 79.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 16.6N 80.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 16.6N 80.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 16.8N 80.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 17.5N 81.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 82.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 83.0W 85 KT

Sat Oct 15, 2005
National Works Agency to assess MoBay damage

The National Works Agency (NWA) is now carrying out an assessment of the damage in the second city.

This was disclosed by Acting Senior Communication Officer, Stephen Shaw.

Heavy torrential rains which pelted the island Friday night have caused major flooding in Montego Bay, St. James.

A number of homes were flooded, while some roadways have been damaged.

http://www.televisionjamaica.com/news/stor...y=2&story=20714

Many business operators have also incurred major losses after the North and South Gullies overflowed their banks and flooded businesses in downtown, Montego Bay.

Mr. Shaw said the NWA will be moving to clear the traps in the South gully to prevent any further flooding in downtown.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 215 MILES... 345 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT
125 MILES... 205 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY... BUT A SLOW WEST TO
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR... IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WEAK SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 79.0 W. MOVEMENT
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT34 KNHC 160844
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY GET BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 200 MILES... 325 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT
140 MILES... 225 KM... SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR.
A GENERAL WEST OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Depression TWENTY-FOUR Discussion
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 160843
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY GET BETTER ORGANZIED... WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE WORD SLOWLY. DEEP CONVECTION AND BANDING FEATURES
HAVE INCREASED... BUT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH
HAS SPLIT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IN TWO. BOTH TAFB AND SAB CAME IN
WITH A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT. HOWEVER
...OFTENTIMES THE SURFACE WIND FIELD OF LARGE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ONE WILL LAG ABOUT 12 HOURS BEHIND THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS ONLY
BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KT... WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BASED ON
NEARBY NOAA BUOY WIND REPORTS.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING WEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST
12 HOURS... WITH A MOTION BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES AND NO MORE THAN
3 KT. THE CYCLONE IS CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS... WITH THE MORE DOMINANT ONE BEING LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WEAK WESTWARD STEERING PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO UNTIL A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MOVES OVER AND
DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF HIGH CENTER THROUGH LOUISIANA AND INTO
MISSOURI. THE GLOBAL MODELS HANDLES THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE
DIFFERENTLY WITH THE GFDL...GFS...UKMET... AND ECMWF MODELS BEING
MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MAINTAIN THIS FEATURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. THROUGH DAY 3... WHEREAS THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS DAMPEN IT
OUT AND KEEP A STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE GULF. IF ANYTHING... THE GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO
DAMPEN THESE TYPES OF SHORTWAVES TOO MUCH... SO MY FEELING IS THAT
THE GFS... GFDL... UKMET... AND ECMWF MODELS MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMERGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY DAYS 2-3
AND... THEREFORE... THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD WEAKEN MORE THAN
INDICATED BY THOSE MODELS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
CREATE A SMALL WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER-LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY DAY 5 TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CREATE AN EVEN LARGER
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE... WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN CUBA OR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... OR
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY 5. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE LEFT...OR
WEST... OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTION OF NOGAPS MODEL.

MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT NOTED IN BOTH 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA
ACROSS FLORIDA AND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT... A VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND WARM SSTS OF MORE THAN 29C SHOULD
ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT... THE GLOBAL MODELS
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS... AND DECREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO LESS THAN 5 KT AFTER 48
HOURS. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENTAL PATTERN IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AND FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO BECOME MAJOR
HURRICANES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
SHIPS MODEL... WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 88 KT BY 96 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 17.0N 79.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 16.9N 79.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 16.9N 80.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 17.0N 80.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 17.3N 81.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 18.0N 82.6W 70 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 19.5N 83.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 22.0N 84.0W 95 KT...NEAR WESTERN CUBA

000
WTNT34 KNHC 161138
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING LITTLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 200 MILES... 325 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A
GENERAL WEST OR SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK SO SOME
ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...17.1 N... 79.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Well, so far three out of the five computer forcast models have this thing going into the eastern gulf. NOGAPS and UKMET are the only two that have it steering to the west a bit. Not what I would have rather seem. GFDL has it heading right to the west coast of Florida. :unsure: Not sure if the SST's name sistain anything over a cat 2 right now. But, a 3 is for sure possible.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 161435
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

THERE HAVE BEEN NO DRAMATIC CHANGES TO THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
DEPRESSION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS MORE DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER WITH HINTS OF A LITTLE MORE BANDING. THE LATEST
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE UNCHANGED...AT
T2.5/35 KT...BUT AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SUCH A
BROAD WIND FIELD THE WINDS ARE PROBABLY STILL LAGGING THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING
THE DEPRESSION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER ASSESS THE STRENGTH
OF THE CYCLONE. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS EXTREMELY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...WITH LOW SHEAR AND GOOD ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW...AND THERE IS A DEEP SUPPLY OF WARM WATER IN THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN. THE RAPID INSTENSIFICATION COMPONENT OF THE SHIPS MODEL
IS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID DEVELOPMENT...
BUT A BETTER DEFINED INNER CORE STRUCTURE NEEDS TO FORM FIRST. THE
GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN
THREE DAYS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FACTORS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLACE TO
ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS
MODEL EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT FAVORS THE GFDL LATER ON.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND PERHAPS MAY HAVE DRIFTED A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE
ADVISORY POSITION. THIS TOO...WILL BE BETTER ASSESSED WHEN THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OF THE
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...WITH THE MORE
DOMINANT ONE BEING LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION BUT WILL
SOON BE MOVING BY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE WESTWARD DRIFT TO RESUME
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY ERODE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PROGRESSES EASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTH AS THE RIDGE ERODES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO
ACCELERATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A SHADE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 17.1N 79.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 17.1N 79.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 17.2N 80.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 17.3N 80.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 17.7N 81.2W 65 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 20.5N 84.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 23.5N 84.5W 95 KT

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...DEPRESSION STALLED IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
WHILE A GENERALLY WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN EXTREMELY WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC
MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...17.1 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTNT34 KNHC 161737
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...DEPRESSION MEANDERING IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT TO ARRIVE SHORTLY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
WHILE A GENERALLY WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN EXTREMELY WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC
MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...17.3 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

11 A.M. EDT 10/16/2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24 UPDATE #4

This is an independent product

Tropical Depression 24 is nearing tropical storm intensity and it meanders in the NW Caribbean. This system is expected to become a major hurricane later this week. In the mean time, flooding rains should continue for Jamaica.

NWHHC will recommend a Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands at 5 P.M. Any official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents elsewhere in the NW Caribbean need to closely monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous cyclone.

Currently, the center of Tropical Depression 24 is located near 17.1N and 79.3W. This places the center about 195 miles SE of Grand Cayman Island. There is little motion at the present time. A slow drift to the west is expected to occur during the next couple of days. This system is not expected to make its closest pass to the Cayman Islands until Wednesday.

Maximum winds have increased to near 35 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 1001mb. This depression should become a tropical storm later today and is expected to become a major hurricane late this week.

Next Update: 5 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

WTNT34 KNHC 162036
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR
ABOUT 150 MILES... 245 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH
... 4 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONITNUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC
MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF IT DOES SO...IT WILL TIE THE RECORD OF 21
NAMED STORMS SET IN 1933.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. INDEED...THEY HAVE YET
TO FIND ANY FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HIGHER THAN 31 KT...WHICH ONLY
SUPPORTS 25 KT AT THE SURFACE. IN THE INTEREST OF CONTINUITY
HOWEVER...I WILL ASSUME THAT SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS EXIST SOMEWHERE
THE AIRCRAFT HASN'T YET SAMPLED. WHILE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
REMAINS DOMINATED BY OUTER BANDS WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE ACTIVITY
NEAR THE CORE. FURTHERMORE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTER ALONG
THE EASTERN SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE
INHIBITING FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY...HOWEVER. THE
GFDL IS STILL CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS IN TWO TO THREE DAYS...WITH THE SHIPS MODEL CALLING FOR MORE
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST...SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE...IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE MOTION CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC. EARLIER THE DEPRESSION
WAS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD..BUT NOW THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BYPASSING THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY...A TURN
BACK TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. THERE HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT IN VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...UKMET...
NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF RELATIVELY
UNMOVED. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THESE MODELS SHOW LESS EROSION OF THE
RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND HAVE A MORE
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME
FRAME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD...AND IS
CLOSE TO THE GFDL...WITH THE UKMET...GFS...AND NOGAPS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER WEST.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 17.7N 79.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 17.8N 79.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 17.9N 80.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 18.1N 81.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 18.4N 81.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 19.5N 83.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 21.0N 85.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 23.5N 86.0W 95 KT

802
WTNT34 KNHC 162357
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...DEPRESSION MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND NOT YET ANY STRONGER...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR
ABOUT 150 MILES... 245 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...
4 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF IT DOES SO... IT WILL TIE THE RECORD OF 21
NAMED STORMS SET IN 1933.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
NOAA BUOY 42057... LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES WEST OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER... RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1004 MB.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...SLOWLY MOVING DEPRESSION NOT QUITE A TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR
ABOUT 155 MILES... 245 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
MONDAY. IF AND WHEN IT DOES SO... IT WILL TIE THE RECORD OF 21
NAMED STORMS SET IN 1933.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N... 79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CERTAINLY CHANGED
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. WHILE OUTER BANDS HAVE DISSIPATED...
SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED NEAR AND ESPECIALLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION
HAS BEEN PERCOLATING RATHER THAN MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY NEAR THE
CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE T2.5/35 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB AND T2.0/30 KT FROM AFWA. WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA
BUOY 42057 ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF THE CENTER AND OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN NO STRONGER THAN 19 KT DURING THE EVENING...
AND IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT THE WINDS ARE TWICE THAT STRONG BENEATH
THE DEEP CONVECTION. EVEN THOUGH THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT
30 KT... THE DEPRESSION APPEARS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS
AND WILL LIKELY REACH IT ON MONDAY MORNING.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT BUT IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 275/2. THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE WESTWARD TREND CONTINUES IN THE 18Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND GFDL WHICH NOW FORECAST THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO REACH THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS. THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE
BEEN HANGING ON TO PROGRESSIVELY MORE MID-LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON
DAYS 4-5. THE NEW GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS ARE NOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE
NOGAPS... WHICH IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
BUT HAS NUDGED A LITTLE BACK TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST PATTERN NOW
ANTICIPATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD DELAY A TURN OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD TO VERY LATE IN THE FIVE DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD... BUT NOT AS FAR AS... THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE
LARGE SPREAD OF THE MODELS... ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3-5... THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST OR SUPPORTING
REASONING. AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROVIDED BY
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... AND
WATERS WITH LARGE UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT... SHOULD LEAD TO
STEADY STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS APPEARS EVEN
MORE LIKELY NOW GIVEN THE MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER THIS EVENING. THE LATEST GFDL FORECASTS MORE
STRENGTHENING... AND MORE RAPIDLY... THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FEW
RUNS... WITH AN INTENSITY NEAR 115 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. MEANWHILE
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE REMAINS MORE CONSERVATIVE IN FORECASTING A
HURRICANE IN 48-72 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS IN
BETWEEN AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 17.6N 79.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 17.7N 80.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 17.8N 80.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 18.0N 81.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 18.3N 83.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 19.0N 85.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 86.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 87.5W 90 KT