000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150259
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI OCT 14 2005

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
ABOUT 400 NMI SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES
HAVE ALSO IMPROVED... AS HAVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TAFB
REPORTED A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT WITH A DATA
T-NUMBER OF T2.4/35 KT... AND THE 3HR ODT AVERAGE WAS T2.9/44 KT
WITH A PEAK RAW ODT VALUE OF T3.5/55 KT. HOWEVER... CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED IN THE CURVED BAND ON THE WEST SIDE SINCE 00Z... SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY...OR POSSIBLY A SLOW DRIFT
TOWARD THE WEST. THE NHC MODELS ARE WIDELY DIVERGENT WITH A MOTION
BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. THE GFDL TAKES THE DEPRESSION
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY AND INTENSIFIES IT INTO AN 81-KT
HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS. THE REST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM
RELATIVELY WEAK AND EVEN DISSIPATE IT BY 48 HOURS. GIVEN THAT
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AT THIS TIME AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD... ONLY A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE GENERAL TREND INDICATED
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY... THE GFDL IS QUITE ROBUST IN INTENSIFYING
THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE GFDL HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD LESSER INTENSIFICATION WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN
SINCE 00Z YESTERDAY WHEN IT WAS FORECASTING A 95-KT HURRICANE.
GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE... AND THE SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM AND FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IN WHICH THE
CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY CALLS FOR VERY
MODEST INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY
MODEL WHICH ONLY BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 44 KT BY 96 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 11.0N 101.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 11.0N 101.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 11.0N 102.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 11.0N 103.2W 35 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 11.0N 103.9W 40 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 11.0N 105.3W 40 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 11.0N 106.6W 40 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 11.0N 108.0W 40 KT

$$

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150830
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E HAS
DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...WITH ONE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
REMAINING NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB...AND 25 KT FROM SAB AND
AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THERE IS POOR TO FAIR
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND NONE ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/2. THE DEPRESSION IS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE AREA
NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W-125W. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS TROUGH SHOULD FILL STARTING IN ABOUT 48-72 HR...AND THE RIDGE
SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BUILD WESTWARD. THIS MEANS IN THE LONGER
TERM THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TAKE A WESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER...THINGS
ARE LESS CLEAR IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GFDL...BAMD...AND BAMM CALL
FOR AN INITIAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO
THE TROUGH. THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF CALL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
MOVE STRAIGHT WESTWARD. THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS CALL FOR
LITTLE MOTION AS THE SYSTEM GETS STRETCHED ALONG THE ITCZ. GIVEN
THE SPREAD...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW MOTION
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH IN DEFERENCE TO THE TROUGH AND THE GFDL FORECAST.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AS TO HOW MUCH. THE GFS FORECAST A BURST OF
SHEAR IN 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE TO VALUES THAT WOULD LET
THE CYCLONE STRENGTHEN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CANADIAN FORECASTS
A MUCH MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...WITH STRONGER SHEAR AND A LONGER
TIME BEFORE IT DECREASES. THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF THE
DEPRESSION AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL SEEN NEARBY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MAY ALSO BE INHIBITING FACTORS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL THUS
BE ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE LESS BULLISH SHIPS MODEL RATHER THAN
LEANING TOWARD THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL. WHILE THE FORECAST
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY AT 96-120 HR...IT IS STILL A
LITTLE BELOW WHAT SHIPS IS FORECASTING.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 11.0N 101.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 11.1N 102.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 11.1N 102.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 11.2N 103.4W 35 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 11.3N 104.1W 40 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 11.5N 105.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 11.5N 107.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 11.5N 108.5W 45 KT


$$

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 151425
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005

THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION AND LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION. IN FACT...THERE WAS NOT MUCH TO BEGIN WITH. T-NUMBERS
HAVE COME DOWN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25
KNOTS. LATEST QUICKSCAT SHOWS NO STRONG WINDS AND NO CIRCULATION.
BECAUSE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUITY...I AM FORECASTING
A LITTLE BIT OF INTENSIFICATION...BUT IT APPEARS THAT A WEAKENING
TREND OBSERVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT DEPRESSION
COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW VERY SOON.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE DERIVED FROM
MODELS AND THE GFDL. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
THE CYCLONE.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 11.0N 101.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 11.0N 101.5W 25 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 11.0N 102.0W 25 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 11.0N 103.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 11.0N 104.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 11.0N 105.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 11.0N 107.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 11.0N 108.5W 35 KT

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 152034
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005

THE DEPRESSION HAS A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION...LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION AND APPEARS TO BE ATTACHED TO THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KNOTS BUT IT
IS STILL ON A WEAKENING TREND. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH...THE CYCLONE OR THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
DERIVED FROM MODELS AND THE GFDL. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS BASICALLY
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 11.0N 101.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 11.0N 101.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 16/1800Z 11.0N 102.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 17/0600Z 11.0N 103.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005

VISIBLE AND EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A SMALL CIRCULATION
CENTER JUST BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF
DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 25 KT...AS DOES
THE INITIAL INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLIES CONTINUE TO
HAMPER DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE SHIPS
MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE MODERATE SHEAR WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKENING TREND...BASED OFF OF THE SHIPS...WITH THE DEPRESSION
BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 270/3. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY WEAK
LOW/MID-LAYER EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE
FORWARD MOTION OF THE REMNANT LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BUT WILL REFLECT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION BEYOND 48
HOURS...AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE SHALLOW MEAN BAM.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 11.0N 102.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 11.0N 102.7W 25 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 11.0N 103.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 17/1200Z 10.9N 104.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/0000Z 10.7N 104.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 19/0000Z 10.3N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 160900
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005

INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TD-16E HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDING
FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED AND DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD
-80C HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AR T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND
AFWA... AND 25 KT FROM SAB. AN EARLIER UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WAS 1005 MB AND 33 KT... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION IS 270/4. A LARGE AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL TO SLOWLY FILL
AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS
ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
NORTHERN MEXICO TO SLOWLY BUILD/SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
TD-16E SHOULD ACT TO FORCE THE CYCLONE IN A GENERAL WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK... EXCEPT THAT THE FORECAST TIME
LENGTH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 120 HOURS NOW THAT THE SHIPS AND THE
OTHER MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE ALIVE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER AT LEAST 28C SSTS FOR THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. IN FACT... THE WATER MAY BE WARMER THAN THAT BASED ON
AN SST REPORT OF 84F/29C FROM DRIFTING BUOY 32640 LOCATED NORTH OF
TD-16E. THE CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR OF 21 KT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 KT AFTER 48 HOURS... SO SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH
BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 42 KT BY 96 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 11.0N 102.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 10.9N 103.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 10.8N 103.9W 30 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 10.5N 104.8W 35 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 10.3N 106.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 9.9N 108.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 9.5N 111.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 9.5N 115.5W 35 KT

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 161436
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005

A 0819 UTC AMSU PASS INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF TD-16E
WAS SOMEWHAT DISPLACED FROM THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAS
ALSO CONFIRMED BY THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY
WHICH SHOW THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS
INDICATIVE OF CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK NUMBERS ARE
2.0 FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 2.5 FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AT 280/5...AND PERHAPS
EVEN FURTHER TO THE RIGHT THAN INDICATED HERE. A LARGE AND STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
REACH ITS MOST SOUTHERN EXTENT BY 24 HOURS THEN SLOWLY FILL
AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS
ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
NORTHERN MEXICO TO SLOWLY BUILD/SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
TD-16E SHOULD ACT TO FORCE THE CYCLONE IN A GENERAL WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT THAT THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION
OF THE CURRENT MOTION.

THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THE CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR OF 22 KT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DECREASE TO 15 KT IN 36 HOURS AND TO 10-15 KT THROUGH DAY 5.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH LEANS TOWARD THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CALLS
FOR STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 48 HOURS. HOWEVER SINCE
THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM STATUS...IT
COULD BECOME ONE MUCH SOONER IF THE SHEAR RELAXES JUST A LITTLE BIT.

FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 11.3N 103.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 11.4N 103.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 11.4N 104.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 11.1N 105.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 10.7N 106.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 10.0N 109.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 10.0N 112.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 10.0N 116.0W 40 KT

706
WTPZ41 KNHC 162032
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS
STRUGGLING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WHILE THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. DVORAK NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM SAB AND
AFWA AND 2.0 FROM TAFB. GIVEN THE SHEARING PATTERN...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS A CONSERVATIVE 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION IS FURTHER TO THE RIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS NOW 290/6. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC REASONING HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...IN THAT THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY ALL
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REACH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT BY 18-24 HOURS...
THEN SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF TD-16E SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF DUE WEST BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...BASED ON
AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION...AND LESS OF A TURN TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 27C-28C SSTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20 KT IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 10-15 KT IN 36 HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST. AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE...CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 36
HOURS. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM
STATUS...IT COULD BECOME ONE MUCH SOONER IF THE SHEAR RELAXES JUST
A LITTLE BIT.

FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 11.8N 104.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 11.9N 104.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 11.9N 105.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 11.7N 107.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 11.5N 108.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 11.0N 110.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 11.0N 113.8W 40 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 11.5N 117.0W 40 KT

TROPICAL STORM PILAR (EP162005) ON 20051017 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051017 0000 051017 1200 051018 0000 051018 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.0N 104.4W 12.9N 106.2W 13.9N 108.0W 14.7N 109.7W
BAMM 12.0N 104.4W 12.5N 105.9W 12.8N 107.5W 13.1N 109.2W
LBAR 12.0N 104.4W 12.9N 105.8W 13.7N 107.3W 14.1N 108.9W
SHIP 35KTS 37KTS 39KTS 40KTS
DSHP 35KTS 37KTS 39KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051019 0000 051020 0000 051021 0000 051022 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.3N 111.4W 16.2N 114.8W 17.2N 117.9W 19.3N 119.7W
BAMM 13.1N 110.9W 13.2N 115.2W 13.8N 119.4W 15.2N 123.3W
LBAR 13.8N 110.5W 12.8N 114.3W 12.3N 118.7W 13.8N 122.2W
SHIP 43KTS 48KTS 49KTS 42KTS
DSHP 43KTS 48KTS 49KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 104.4W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 11.4N LONM12 = 103.2W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 102.0W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 40NM

TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005

VISIBLE AND ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAD INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING... AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM... SUPPORTED SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM ALL CLASSIFYING AGENCIES. HOWEVER...
RECENT SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION
CENTER IS SHEARED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BANDING
FEATURE... AND THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
CONSIDERABLY. THEREFORE... BASED ON THE SHORT TERM CLOUD PATTERN
CHANGES... WE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL AGREE ON A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
MOVE WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT... THE GFDL FORECASTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
SHIPS MODEL.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/7. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A MID- LAYER RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND
SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THIS STEERING CURRENT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER- LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT FASTER BEYOND
36 HOURS TO CONFORM WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 12.2N 104.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 12.3N 105.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 12.2N 107.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 11.9N 108.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 11.5N 109.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 11.0N 113.1W 45 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 11.5N 116.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 12.5N 119.5W 40 KT

:angry:

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 171426
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON OCT 17 2005

SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON
THE DEPRESSION. WHAT LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IS DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
ARE DOWN TO 1.0 FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA...HENCE THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
NEIGHBORING ITCZ IS REMARKABLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH
INDICATES A LARGE-SCALE STABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH
THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION...SMALL CIRCULATION
SIZE...AND DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR...SHOULD MITIGATE AGAINST
REGENERATION. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW IN 48-72 HOURS...BUT UNLESS DEEP CONVECTION MAKES A
SIGNIFICANT COMEBACK... DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR MUCH SOONER.

THE CENTER OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD SWIRL IS RATHER EASY TO
TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 270/07. A
LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... THEREFORE A CONTINUED WESTWARD
MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR REMNANT LOW...IS PREDICTED.
THIS IS CLOSE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 12.1N 106.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 12.1N 107.3W 25 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 12.0N 108.9W 25 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 12.0N 110.5W 25 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 12.0N 112.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 20/1200Z 12.0N 115.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 21/1200Z 12.0N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 172023
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON OCT 17 2005

AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS...FROM AROUND 1330Z...SUGGESTED THAT THE
DEPRESSION WAS PROBABLY A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SHOWN IN THIS
MORNING'S ADVISORY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEARTH OF DEEP CONVECTION
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN
TODAY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 1.5 AND 1.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT. THE SYSTEM
CONSISTS MAINLY OF A SMALL...BUT WELL-DEFINED...LOW CLOUD
SWIRL...WITH LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IMPLIES THE
POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CYCLONE IS
EMBEDDED IN A RATHER STABLE AIR MASS WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID-
TROPOSPHERE. THIS...ALONG WITH THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
CIRCULATION...ARGUES AGAINST RE-INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 48-72 HOURS.
HOWEVER UNLESS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPS
NEAR/OVER THE CENTER... ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED QUITE
SOON.

INITIAL MOTION...270/8...IS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING. A LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYLONE IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4
DAYS. THIS REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD A STEERING FLOW THAT
WILL CARRY THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT...MAINLY WESTWARD. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE THE PREVIOUS ONE...ONLY A
SHADE FASTER.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 12.2N 107.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 12.2N 108.2W 25 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 12.2N 110.0W 25 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 12.1N 111.8W 25 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 12.0N 113.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 20/1800Z 12.0N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 21/1800Z 12.0N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 192005
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED OCT 19 2005

DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
TD-16E CIRCULATION... UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS WHERE THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE FLAREUPS HAD FIZZLED OUT BY THIS
TIME. THE ITCZ HAS ALSO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE...
SUGGESTING THAT THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND AIRMASS
STABILIZATION OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS HAS DECREASED. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T1.5/25 KT FROM TAFB AND T1.0/25 KT FROM
SAB USING A BANDING PATTERN. HOWEVER... A SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS A
DATA T-NUMBER OF AT LEAST T2.5/35 KT. A NESDIS/CIRA AMSU INTENSITY
ESTIMATE AT 19/1334Z WAS 1006 MB AND 30 KT. A BLEND OF ALL THESE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES IS 30 KT... WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL 280/9... EVEN THOUGH THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN SPEED AS HIGH AS 13 KT. A BROAD BUT WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE BASICALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72
HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5... A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WEAKEN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THE WEAKENING RIDGE... IN COMBINATION AN
INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW... MAY HELP TO LIFT
THE CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN FAIRLY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
...BUT THE LARGE-SCALE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DESPITE THE DRY
MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 24 HOURS... AND THE MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST GRADUALLY MOISTEN. THESE IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS...AND THEN SLOW
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR INCREASES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...
ONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKER... ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3-5.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 12.4N 115.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 12.5N 116.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 12.7N 118.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 13.1N 119.9W 35 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 13.5N 121.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 14.1N 122.2W 40 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 14.5N 123.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 15.0N 124.0W 35 KT

$$

And I thought I was nuts and just seeing things! :blink:

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 200245
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED OCT 19 2005

THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING AND IS
DIFFICULT TO FIND ON THE FINAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY.
IT IS TEMPTING TO POSITION THE CENTER IN AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL
BUT IT IS BELIEVED THAT THIS SWIRL IS ROTATING INSIDE THE LARGER
CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE. THIS IDEA IS PARTIALLY SUPPORTED BY A
TRMM MICROWAVE PASS A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THE TRMM PASS WAS FAR FROM
CONCLUSIVE. WHEREVER THE EXACT POSITION... THE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF 16-E ARE WEAKENING RAPIDLY WITH NO
CONVECTION WITHIN AT LEAST 75 NM OF THE CENTER. T-NUMBERS ARE
FALLING FROM SAB AND TAFB AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
25 KT.

THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN A BIT OF AN ENIGMA BY NOT BEING ABLE TO
MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE
MOST LIKELY CULPRIT IS DRY AIR SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR PICTURES...
PROBABLY SUPRESSING CONVECTION DESPITE MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND WARM SSTS. SHIPS CONTINUES TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
HUMIDITY WHICH COULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO REACH STORM INTENSITY
IN A DAY OR TWO WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER. GIVEN THE
DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE TONIGHT.. IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF
SHIPS WERE INCORRECT AND THE CYCLONE BECAME A REMNANT LOW IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/9. THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST. A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
STEER THE CYCLONE A LITTLE NORTH OF WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AT
EXTENDED RANGES...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
RIDGE...ALLOWING A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEAR THE
NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 12.4N 115.9W 25 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 12.5N 117.3W 25 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 12.9N 119.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 13.2N 120.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 13.5N 121.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 14.5N 122.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 15.0N 122.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 15.5N 123.5W 35 KT

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 200811
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU OCT 20 2005

IT WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. IT IS EVEN HARDER TO
FIND IT NOW. IT APPEARS THAT CENTER WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING IS WELL
REMOVED FROM THE VERY LIMITED CONVECTION. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL MOTION USING CONTINUITY IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS AND THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25 KNOTS.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD OR WEST
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SEEMS THAT THE CHANCES
FOR INTENSIFICATION ARE DIMINISHING SINCE THE CONVECTION IS
BECOMING MORE AND MORE SEPARATED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.
HOWEVER...WE ARE KEEPING THE SAME PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. VISIBLE IMAGES LATER TODAY COULD BE HELPFUL IN
CLARIFYING IF WE HAVE A DEPRESSION OR NOT.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 12.6N 117.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 13.0N 118.5W 25 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 13.5N 120.0W 25 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 14.0N 121.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 14.5N 122.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 23/0600Z 15.0N 122.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 24/0600Z 15.5N 123.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 25/0600Z 16.0N 124.0W 35 KT


$$