Tropical depression 24
Forecast one


The 24th tropical depression forms over the Central Caribbean...


A strong upper level ridge has developed over the cyclone. Shear maps of 0 to 5 knots are centered over the cyclone. Southern/Northern outflow jets have formed. Buoy 42057 shows SST under the system at 85.3 degrees. This is just northwest of the center of the cyclone. This shows that the upper levels/SST's are very favorable for this cyclone. Most factors are there for a bombing cyclone...All that is needed is a central core/convection near the center...Satelilte shows that the system has become much more defined/organized, and convection is starting to focuss over it. So a central core is starting to develop, which can almost be called a Cdo...With minus 70 degree cloud tops.

Strength reasoning
Strengthening is starting to become very likely. I'm not ready to call for a Katrina or Rita like storm...But strengthing is likely. The earlier Gfdl's were making this a cat5 and as of 00z only 100 knots before Cuba landfall. This is what the atmosphere did with Rita...With its upper levels it could follow some of those earlier Gfdl thinkings. The Ship model 06z takes it to 88 knots by 96 hours...My thinking is for this thing to become a tropical storm by 11am=6 to 12 hours. Then become a hurricane within 36 hours. 60-72 hours and becomes a cat2 over the Caymens. Then a system around 110 knots coming into Cuba earlier Thursday morning.

Track reasoning
A cut off low forms over southern California by Monday night/Tuesday. Which is forecasted to be kicked into the midwest by Wednesday...Then just south of the Great lakes by Thursday before merging with a trough by Friday. This should help weaken the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico by that time. This should draw the cyclone northward. The 00z Gfs shows the cut off low off California by 24 to 36 hours. Which will kick it out by Thursday 00z into the midwest...

The 00z Gfdl shows very little movement over the next 24 hours, followed by a slow movement to the northwest there after,,, through 24 to 84 hours. It also shows that the system takes at least 60 hours to form a central core, which is a factor we need to watch for. The Cmc moves it due northward....By 54 hours and crosses into the Atlantic. Then off the coast of Florida 75 west at 84 to 90 hours. Then turns the cyclone just east of the outterbanks to the northeast at 108 to 120 hours. Nogaps is close to the Gfdl/Gfs through 36 hours. A slow movement to the northwest...Then instead of turning it north it heads it westward, into the northern Yucatan by 136 to 144 hours. Ukmet keeps it near Jamica to 60 hours. Then a slow westward or west-northwestward then after. It shows it move into the southern Gulf by 144 hours.

The cyclone has stalled...So this is a very hard track forecast...Earlier it was moving southwest...The 06z models shows a slow westward or west-southwest movement durning the next 24 hours. Followed by the Lbar spliting to the north with 18.6 north at 36 hours. In with the Bamm at 16.5...Bamm 16.6 north...A98E 16.7...Every hurricane model Bamm,Bamd,A98E but the Lbar shows the cyclone moving southwestward after 48 hours. Until around 72 hours and which all of them turn it at least to the west-northwest or northwestward. Besides the A98E...A model from the Ncep/Emc as of 00z shows a northward track up 85 west then bends the cyclone to the northeast after 24 north. It maxs the system out at 977 millibars. The nam shows a very slow track....

Because there is little steering currents at this time, is the reason why the models are spread out. The thinking is calling for that cut off low to cut out around Tuesday afternoon/Wednesday morning. Moving into the Midwest...This should form a weakness into the ridge. Which should draw the cyclone north by Thursday, followed by its merging with the trough over the Great lakes by Friday.

A slow movement to the west or west-southwest next 12 to 24 hours...Followed by a west-northwest movement through 54 to 60 hours. Bring the cyclone near 18/82 by 72 hours. Followed by a turn to the northwest or north after that time...A landfall over Cuba is expected Late Wednesday into Earlier Thursday morning...Which is likely to be the western tip of it. This is the current track thinking.


Forecast
0 35 mph
12 45 mph
24 60 mph
36 75 mph
48 85 mph
60 100 mph
72 105 mph
84 110 mph
96 115 mph
120 125 mph making landfall in Cuba...
136 110 mph moving into the Gulf



Forecaster Matthew

Great job!!!

the only snag i see in thi forecast is I think your strength is a little modest. Although the 5am discussion did happen to metion mid level dry air near Fl which may hamper its ability to bomb as quicly as it may otherwise. I see this storm taking a due north path into the FL Pandhandle as the high will erode westward blocking the storm form abrupt westward movement. I see a strong cat2 as it apporaches Guatemono Bay. in other words you have a GREAT forecast matt.

This is a unoffical forecast....

Tropical storm Wilma
Forecast 2#

Wilma becomes the 21st tropical storm over the western Caribean...


A large blow up of deep convection has formed over the tight well defined LLC. The system has been moving slowly to the south...Because of the upper high moving away to the northwest shearing the cloud tops to the south. All together the system over the pass few hours the cyclone has become much better organized. With minus 80 cloud tops...Even so the convection is slightly displaced to the south...It has started to reinline...In for the last 6 hours has had a 2.5/2.5=35 knots. Infact the upper high/Anticyclone is moving away...In the system might become quite strong over the next 24 hours.

Strength reasoning

Upper level winds are expected to become very faverable...With warm water/TCHP under the cyclone. Dry air appears to be mixing out at this time. So this could very well come close to where the Gfdl...One thing it will need to redevelop a upper ridge...So strengthing is likely but not no katrina's/Rita's.


The ship only strengthing the cyclone to 76 knots by 96 hours...In makes it a 35 knot tropical storm by 6 hours. Gfdl on the other hand strengthing the system to 121 knots...In fact the Gfdl makes it a hurricane by 12 hours...In a cat3 by 24 hours. Ship only 43 knots...Hurricane by 72 hours...I'm going down the middle of the two. In which forecasting a hurricane near 36 hours.

Track reasoning

The Gfs(00z)shows Wilma moving westward for the next 96 hours. In which brings the cyclone into Yuctan near 90 hours. By the lastest Gfs the trough/weakness is not expected to be strong enough to pick it up...In which it doe's not merge into a defined trough over the lakes as seen last night. Weakness/trough 1# heads over the Ohio river valley/Southern Great lakes area around 54 to 60 hours. Weakness/cut off low 2# moves into the midwest near 40/100 by 72 hours. It shows it passing to the north of the cyclone around 96 to 108 hours. While the cyclone doe's turn west-northwest over the Yucatan. Then into the BOC by 120 hours...Longer range Gfs shows it moving back into the Caribbean.

Cmc(00z) shows it moving west-northwestward durning the next 24 hours. Then by 48 hour hours turning northwestward up the Yuctan channel. 72 to 84 hours a movement to the north into the Eastern GUlf of Mexico. This models picks up more of a weakness to the north...

Ukmet(00z) Pretty much agrees with the Gfs. In which takes it westward. But makes lanfall near 84 hours...Then a westward movement through the BOC 96 to 144 hours.

The ECMWF (00z) takes it west-noprthwestward into the Yucatan...Intill around 90 west. Then shows the cyclone making a sharp northeastward turn. It should be noted that this is one of the best tropical cyclone models there is...

The 00z hurricane models spread...All hurricane models but the Clips/Lbar make landfall on the Yuctan...The Gfdl takes it southwestward for the next 72 hours...While bombing the cyclone into 121 knot cat4...Then a turn to the northwest hiting just south of 20 north around 96 hours...By the end of the forecasted period(126 hours)It turns it northward over the Yucatan. Kind of like the ECMWF...

Aemi,Gfdi,Conu,Avni,Ngpi take it across near 20 north...The Bams,Bamm,Bamd take it near 18 to 19 north. In which the Aemi,Nogaps has the most global support. With the Gfs,Ecwmf,Ukmet models supporting a landfall near 20 north around 84 to 96 hours. The fight layers the CMC,Clips,Lbar...In near the end of the forecast period the ECMWF...Still show a threat to Florida....

The Hurricane models are in good agree for a westward track for the next 24 to 36 hours. Then they spread out into there thinking...



The forecast thinking is for a movmement just south of due west. Durning the next 12 hours. Fellowed by a westward track from 12 to 96 hours...In which takes the cyclone inland near 20 north around 90 hours...This is fellowing the middle of the models...In which shows the trough/weakness not picking the system up like it was last night.


Forecast
0 40 mph
12 55 mph
24 65 mph
36 80 mph
48 90 mph
60 95 mph
72 105 mph
84 110 mph
96 90 mph inland
108 50 mph inland
120 Over 65 mph BOC

Forecaster Matthew

Tropical storm Wilma
Forecast 3#

Wilma almost a hurricane....


A recent recon pass shows that the pressure has fallen another 2 millibars. In is now 982 millibars...Which is normal for a 80 to 85 mph hurricane. But highest winds where found to be around 67.27 mph or 74 mph at flight level. Also outside the eyewall is at 15c to inside the eye at 23c...That is nearly double the temperature differences as earlier. So this storm might be in a period of strengthing as we speak. Also 06z t numbers out of sab show it at 4.0=65 knots...But we will wait intill more data comes in.

A cdo with minus 80 to 85 degree temperatures has formed. In fact it has been growing over the last few hours...In the inflow coming out of the south is rather impressive. In is very good out of all quads...

Strength reasoning
Upper levels are still faverable enough for strengthing...In the SST's are warm enough for a cat4 storm. There is some dry air over the northwestern part of the Caribbean...Gulf of Mexico. In which if it got into the cyclone would cause weaking. But because of the rather strong flow out of the south...Wraping into the cyclone...That dry air is not likely to get intrained into it. At least not while its over the Caribbean...

Ship models make it a 72 knot hurricane by 12 hours. Then a 93 knot cat2 by 36 hours. Then 100 knot major hurricane by 48 hours. Peaking at 72 hours at 109 knots...It shows between 100 to 105 knots for a landfall on Florida...Then once crossing the state it weakens it to about 77 knots.

I'm forecasting a cat1 hurricane by 12 hours...80 mph...90 mph by 24 hours...Then 105 mph by 36 hours. A Major hurricane is likely at 48 to 60 hours...Which it should be one when it go's through the channel/Hits Cuba. A slow weaking should start when the trough pushs it to the east...In which the storm will likely peak at 115 to 120 mph near 66 to 72 hours. I landfall like noted below with about 90 mph winds is expected.

Track reasoning

A trough over the midwest develops over the next 24 hours. Last night the models forecasted a much weaker trough/frontal system. In which shown the cyclone moving westward into the Yuctan. Tonight whole nother story. The 00z Gfs forecasts a west-northwest movement through out 36 hours... In which takes it to 17.5/18 north/83 west. Then turns it northwest or northward after 60 hours. Which takes the cyclone through the channel. Then it develops a strong trough which sinks into the Gulf of Mexico...In which turns it Northeastward at 96 hours...Then Eastward or east-northeastward after 108 hours. The models shows this system picking up speed. The 00z Gfdl shows it picking up to 25 mph...In also they are much farther to the south. Which means a few things 1# Less time to be sheared apart because of the speed...2# Warmer waters...The northern Gulf has water SST's around 26 to 27c...Which is to cold for a major cane. A landfall is shown at 120 hours.

The Cmc shows a west or west-northwest of the next 36 hours...Then northward into western Cuba 48 to 54 hours. From 60 to 72 hours it moves at southwestern Florida from the south-southeastward. Making landfall just slightly south of where Charley did last year. It makes landfall around 78 hours. Which is much faster then the Gfs...The Ukmet is slow to the Gfs 00z...But turns it sharper to the East....


Any way the keys will have to deal with a hurricane...In theres a good chance southern Florida will also...NGP model takes it into Fort Meyers early on the 23...All the Globals show this not going north of 26 north...Besides maybe the Cmc. The Ecmwf takes it close to Cuba's western Coast...Around Saturday...Then into southern Florida around 25.5 around 12z Sunday...

The Ecmwf,Gfs,Ukmet,Cmc,NGP show a Southern Florida landfall...Maybe even south of Fort Meyers...The 00z Gfdl takes it inland where Charley hit last year...In which it is the northward model as of this moment. All the hurricane models Bamd,Bamm,Lbar,Gfdl,E98A showing it moving over Cuba. Gfdl just to the west...


My call is for a movement to the west for the next 12 hours...Fellowed by a speed up to the west-northwest or even northwest after 24 hours to 36 hours. A northward turn should occur around 54 to 60 hours. As its moving through the western Yuctan Channel...This storm could easly make landfall on Cuba. A landfal near 25 north 108 hour is forecasted...Or Late Saturday...

0 70 mph
12 80 mph
24 90 mph
36 105 mph
48 110 mph
60 115 mph
72 120 mph
84 110 mph
96 100 mph
108 90 mph making landfall
120 70 mph over the Atlatnic

Forecaster Matthew