Over the past 6 hours, TD 24 has begun to head to the north-northwest (338°) and is currently situated at 17.7N 79.6W. Although, TD 24 has not yet reached Tropical Storm status, I believe it will become Wilma within the next 24 hours.

If one examines Hurricanes Isbell (1964) and Gladys (1968), they didn't begin their steady intensification until they were between 20.0N and 19.4N respectively. Given the SSTs (29°C-30°C) and a lessening of shear, I expect that process to commence a little earlier with regard to TD 24.

The synoptic situation very closely resembles that for Isbell, which made southwestern Florida landfall as a Category 2 hurricane after having reached Category 3 status:



GFS Ensemble Mean at 144 Hours:


500 Mb Height Anomalies for Hurricane Isbell (October 15, 1964):


At this point in time, based both on modeling, historic analogs, and SSTs, I believe TD 24 will likely reach a maximum intensity of 115 mph to 125 mph. It will probably make landfall in southwestern Florida with maximum sustained winds of around 110 mph. Major hurricane landfall cannot be ruled out.

Should this system make U.S. landfall as a major hurricane, 2005 would set a new record with 4 such landfalls.

I tend to lean toward your pronostications there Don,, but I think I see a more Northward track a bit higher on the West Florida Coast than you have shown,,,,, ;)

glad to have you back, don. i think a 1968 gladys type track is possible