Summary and overview
Wilma made it to TS status this morning! With a deep bloom of convection and a look at the visible stellitle loop I would have to agree. She has gotten better defined than she look only 12 hrs ago which is justified for a weak TS. Wilma ties us for the most active season ever with 1933, One more storm and we will break the record! Wilma already has made history nomatter what it does!

Intesiacation factor

I see from the visble and water vapor stellite loop that Wilma looks good but she does look squezzed off. this is because as metioned in the 5am discussion and as you can see on the visible satellite there is some very dry air to the NW of Wilma. the good news for wilma is the upperlevel winds and warm SST's will encourage steady growth and development! My intestity forecast is this.

intial 40mph

12 hr 50 mph

24 hr 70 mph


36 hr 80mph

48hr 90 mph hitting the yuctan


56hr 110mph


72hr 120mph

96hr 125mph


Track guiadance

The big player in wilma's track is the large subtropical high over florida. All the model concensus besides a few Canadian models agree with the NWS with a much farther west track than was forecasted yesterday. the NWS forecast a shortwave coming in 2-3 days to SLOWLY erode the high but I think it may be to late by that time. she would have to make a very fast turn to do that. So my track forecast is for him to hit the Yuactan's northern coast and move across the yucatan into the gulf of Mexico. after that is a little hard to say but my new forecast will be out Wednesday.
Conclusion

My conclusion is I don't think wilma will be a major player because of the Subtropical high and midlevel dry air. It is possible but not that likely that she will hit the Gulf Coast. She will be a strong storm though so mud slides and bad weather in the Yucatan will prevail.

Always listen to offical sources.

I agree a movement into the northern Yuctan...In a movement to the north afterward is looking more likely. This should become a cat2 or maybe a cat3 at landfall over the Yucatan.

Very good forecast.... :silly:

Thank you Matthew!

Wilma forecast number 2.

All the factors are coming into place for RAPID intesifcation! THe SST's are higher than they were for Katrina and the shear is very low. There is a slight chance that the strong SW winds ascossiated with the trough that is supoosed to rapidly propell it to the NE may slightly shear it down a around 10 mph. Today Wilma has shown everything neccesary to become a rapid intesiafing hurricane. One one of the latest vortex messages an eye newly formed which can be seen on the IR satellite.

Intesity

The high SST's,moderate shear due to the trough should effect this storm. I predcit by morning the storm should be a cat 2 and byt hte time the trough catches it it will be a cat 3 but the SW winds will weaken it to a cat 2. Wilma has a good chance in beocming a weak cat 4 befoore landfall and landfalling as a three.

Track

The track will be infulenced by the trough and a weaking high. The trough will quickly carry it NE. The shortwave has weakened the high considerable. My forecast is for wilma to hit Tampa as a cat 3.

I am tired so I will try to post forecasts during my break. Thanks I will do a better one later.

I say about 50 miles south of where Charley hit...In theres a chance this my top Katrina or Rita. You can see that those cloud tops put both Katrina or Rita to shame. A new larger eye is developing...Which this to go into the 920s by tomarrow.

Very good forecast weather1man... :silly:

I will have a long one later.

I am looking fodward to yours!

Forecast number 3

Overview and discussion
It looks to me that Wilma has sealed her own fate in her life. She missed the boat. Strong SW winds pushed Wilma SW and she missed the trough. the trough explained her jog to the north yeaterday but it was just not enough to compat these winds. wilma quicly ressumed her path of devestaion into the Yucatan Penisula. currently she is holding her own as a moderate cat 4 but land will soon do its toll esspically since she will be on land in 48 hours.
Her future

Wilma's future is up for grabs. I learned form the talented NEXRAD the the TWC message boards that a lot of the computer models having her become extra tropical as she phases with a large trough. If this scenairo played out she would be mor elike the blizzard of 93 than hurricane Charley. She would have very strong winds and a lot of tronadoes and heavy rain but not in a tropical fassion. It's to early to tell if this scenario will play out. The other scneario would be for Wilma to weaken to a cat 1 and hit Florida as a weak cat 2. We will know more by the end of the weekend.

Intestiy
wilma when she gets off the coast of the Yucatan will be much much weaker! Probably a cat 1 at best! She will quickly make her move to the NE as a trough will shear and propel her to the NE.

12 hr 125mph
24hr 105mph
48hr 70mph
56hr 90mph hitting florida.

Track

It seems likely that Wilma will be qucikly be picked up by a trough and move into Florida by monday.

Would you pin my forecasts? I'll have a new one out in the morning beofre I go paintballing!