Title: Wilma: Poses Threat To Florida
donsutherland1 - October 17, 2005 06:15 PM (GMT)
At 2 pm, Tropical Storm Wilma was centered at 16.1N 80.0W with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. It has been drifting to the south.
However, I believe this motion is likely temporary. Consequently, I continue to believe that Wilma will eventually make U.S. landfall, with the Florida Peninsula being the most likely place of landfall. Smaller possibilities exist for the Florida Panhandle and/or Alabama or no U.S. landfall.
Already, the 12z guidance has shifted more toward this scenario for last night's which suggested that the threat to the U.S. had diminished markedly.
In terms of its strength, based both on modeling, historic analogs, and SSTs, I have no changes from last night's discussion on TD 24 (now Wilma). Wilma will likely reach a maximum intensity of 115 mph to 125 mph. It will probably make landfall in on the western Florida Peninsula (possibly southwest Florida) with maximum sustained winds of around 110 mph. After such landfall, it could continue to track to the north-northeast or northeast and possibly pose a threat to parts of the U.S. Eastern Seaboard and later eastern Canada. A track close to the U.S. East Coast with at least partial phasing cannot be ruled out. However, a track farther offshore is equally and perhaps a little more plausible at this time.
At this time, I still believe a track somewhat to the north and west of that of Isbell (1964) to Florida landfall still looks reasonable. Later, as noted, I believe it will track to the east of Isbell’s track and probably won’t be pulled due north or even somewhat west of north after having crossed the Florida Peninsula.
Major hurricane landfall cannot be ruled out. Should this system make U.S. landfall as a major hurricane, 2005 would set a new record with 4 such landfalls.
Computer Guidance:
The GFS ensemble mean 500 mb height anomalies remain consistent with the 10/16 0z run. They are also reasonably consistent with the 10/17 0z and 12z runs of the ECMWF in terms of track and landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast.
10/22 0z:
10/23 0z:
10/24 0z:
10/17 12z ECMWF: 144 hours:
Per the spread of the modeling and historical analogs, I believe Wilma will likely take a course that brushes the Yucatan Peninsula or goes as far east as westernmost Cuba en route to making its turn east of north toward Florida landfall.
Historical Climatology:
Since 1851, 23 tropical cyclones have passed within 75 nautical miles of Wilma's early morning position. Just over half (12/23) eventually made U.S. landfall.
For those making U.S. landfall, the tendencies were:
∙ Alabama and/or Western Florida: 6 (50%)
∙ Eastern Florida: 2 (17%)
∙ South Carolina/North Carolina: 2 (17%)
∙ Louisiana: 1 (6%)
∙ Maryland: 1 (6%): a tropical storm
In addition, 19/23 (83%) made a turn to the north and/or east of north. Nonetheless, 3/23 (23%) made Central American landfall. One such storm was Hurricane Mitch (1998), which later hit southwest Florida as a tropical storm.
So, overall, a scenario where Wilma would plow into Central America to dissipate or across the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche toward either northeast Mexico or Texas is unlikely.
Will Alpha Be Named?
Finally, once Wilma's story has been written, the big question is whether Alpha will form giving the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season a new record for tropical cyclones. In my view, given continued historic warmth in the Atlantic Basin, 2005 will likely see Alpha.
In September, the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) Index stood at +0.73. As a result, September has been the 5th consecutive month in which a new monthly record high has been established for the TNA. April 2005 had the second highest figure for that month.
Since 1948, 4 prior years have seen the September TNA come out at +0.50 or above:
2004: +0.63
2003: +0.57
1998: +0.51
2001: +0.51
All 4 (100%) of those years saw at least one named storm develop November 1 or later:
2004: 1
2003: 2
1998: 1
2001: 2
However, I believe this motion is likely temporary. Consequently, I continue to believe that Wilma will eventually make U.S. landfall, with the Florida Peninsula being the most likely place of landfall. Smaller possibilities exist for the Florida Panhandle and/or Alabama or no U.S. landfall.
Already, the 12z guidance has shifted more toward this scenario for last night's which suggested that the threat to the U.S. had diminished markedly.
In terms of its strength, based both on modeling, historic analogs, and SSTs, I have no changes from last night's discussion on TD 24 (now Wilma). Wilma will likely reach a maximum intensity of 115 mph to 125 mph. It will probably make landfall in on the western Florida Peninsula (possibly southwest Florida) with maximum sustained winds of around 110 mph. After such landfall, it could continue to track to the north-northeast or northeast and possibly pose a threat to parts of the U.S. Eastern Seaboard and later eastern Canada. A track close to the U.S. East Coast with at least partial phasing cannot be ruled out. However, a track farther offshore is equally and perhaps a little more plausible at this time.
At this time, I still believe a track somewhat to the north and west of that of Isbell (1964) to Florida landfall still looks reasonable. Later, as noted, I believe it will track to the east of Isbell’s track and probably won’t be pulled due north or even somewhat west of north after having crossed the Florida Peninsula.
Major hurricane landfall cannot be ruled out. Should this system make U.S. landfall as a major hurricane, 2005 would set a new record with 4 such landfalls.
Computer Guidance:
The GFS ensemble mean 500 mb height anomalies remain consistent with the 10/16 0z run. They are also reasonably consistent with the 10/17 0z and 12z runs of the ECMWF in terms of track and landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast.
10/22 0z:
10/23 0z:
10/24 0z:
10/17 12z ECMWF: 144 hours:
Per the spread of the modeling and historical analogs, I believe Wilma will likely take a course that brushes the Yucatan Peninsula or goes as far east as westernmost Cuba en route to making its turn east of north toward Florida landfall.
Historical Climatology:
Since 1851, 23 tropical cyclones have passed within 75 nautical miles of Wilma's early morning position. Just over half (12/23) eventually made U.S. landfall.
For those making U.S. landfall, the tendencies were:
∙ Alabama and/or Western Florida: 6 (50%)
∙ Eastern Florida: 2 (17%)
∙ South Carolina/North Carolina: 2 (17%)
∙ Louisiana: 1 (6%)
∙ Maryland: 1 (6%): a tropical storm
In addition, 19/23 (83%) made a turn to the north and/or east of north. Nonetheless, 3/23 (23%) made Central American landfall. One such storm was Hurricane Mitch (1998), which later hit southwest Florida as a tropical storm.
So, overall, a scenario where Wilma would plow into Central America to dissipate or across the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche toward either northeast Mexico or Texas is unlikely.
Will Alpha Be Named?
Finally, once Wilma's story has been written, the big question is whether Alpha will form giving the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season a new record for tropical cyclones. In my view, given continued historic warmth in the Atlantic Basin, 2005 will likely see Alpha.
In September, the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) Index stood at +0.73. As a result, September has been the 5th consecutive month in which a new monthly record high has been established for the TNA. April 2005 had the second highest figure for that month.
Since 1948, 4 prior years have seen the September TNA come out at +0.50 or above:
2004: +0.63
2003: +0.57
1998: +0.51
2001: +0.51
All 4 (100%) of those years saw at least one named storm develop November 1 or later:
2004: 1
2003: 2
1998: 1
2001: 2
rainstorm - October 17, 2005 08:37 PM (GMT)
sounds very likely. i feel a gladys 1968 track seems possible
donsutherland1 - October 18, 2005 03:19 PM (GMT)
Overnight, the computer guidance continued to evolve toward the general ideas set forth by the GFS ensembles, ECMWF, and historic climatology. As a result, it appears likely that Wilma could pass through the Yucatan Channel, possibly brushing the Yucatan Peninsula or westernmost Cuba. Afterward, confidence in the idea of a Florida Peninsula landfall—likely southwest Florida—is growing. Wilma will likely pass over some of Florida’s barrier islands before reaching the Florida Peninsula near 26.268N 81.8262W just to the south-southwest of Bonita Springs.
The GFS ensembles remain my preference at this time and are strongly supported by the 10/18 0z run of the ECMWF.
Landfall on the Gulf Coast of the Florida Peninsula will probably occur either on late Saturday or early Sunday as Wilma accelerates to the northeast. Even as Wilma should make landfall on the west coast of the Florida Peninsula, likely as a strong Category 2 hurricane, a portion of Florida’s east coast (probably southeast Florida) will likely experience Category 1 hurricane conditions and possibly even Category 2 hurricane conditions.
There remains some chance that Wilma’s turn could be sufficiently sharp that Wilma passes over the Florida Keys but passes just south of the Florida Peninsula or that a sharp trough to its northwest draws it on a trajectory somewhat farther to the north toward landfall on the central part of the Florida Peninsula (as depicted on the most recent run of the GFDL). Odds of a threat to the Florida Panhandle/Alabama have diminished overnight.
At this point in time, Hurricane Isbell (1964) remains the analog storm of choice with regard to Florida landfall. An excerpt of that storm’s impact on southwest Florida from the October 15, 1964 edition of The New York Times follows:
The hurricane’s first coastal target after leaving Cuba was Everglades City, a small southwest Florida town wrecked by another hurricane in 1960 [Hurricane Donna].
The hurricane identified as Isbell, battered the town briefly with gusts up to 105 miles an hour. Roofs were lifted off some houses in Everglades City, some utility poles were knocked down and a few trees uprooted…
Six known tornadoes spun out of the hurricane as it moved rapidly northeast across the marshy tip of the state, from the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic Ocean.
Should Wilma make U.S. landfall as a major hurricane, it would be the 4th such storm to make U.S. landfall this season. That would set a new record for most major hurricanes to make U.S. landfall in a season.
Estimated Track:
17.5N 81.8W
20.0N 85.2W
22.5N 85.5W
25.0N 83.5W
27.5N 80.2W
Estimated Intensity:
Maximum intensity: 115 mph – 125 mph
Intensity at U.S. Landfall: 110 mph
The GFS ensembles remain my preference at this time and are strongly supported by the 10/18 0z run of the ECMWF.
Landfall on the Gulf Coast of the Florida Peninsula will probably occur either on late Saturday or early Sunday as Wilma accelerates to the northeast. Even as Wilma should make landfall on the west coast of the Florida Peninsula, likely as a strong Category 2 hurricane, a portion of Florida’s east coast (probably southeast Florida) will likely experience Category 1 hurricane conditions and possibly even Category 2 hurricane conditions.
There remains some chance that Wilma’s turn could be sufficiently sharp that Wilma passes over the Florida Keys but passes just south of the Florida Peninsula or that a sharp trough to its northwest draws it on a trajectory somewhat farther to the north toward landfall on the central part of the Florida Peninsula (as depicted on the most recent run of the GFDL). Odds of a threat to the Florida Panhandle/Alabama have diminished overnight.
At this point in time, Hurricane Isbell (1964) remains the analog storm of choice with regard to Florida landfall. An excerpt of that storm’s impact on southwest Florida from the October 15, 1964 edition of The New York Times follows:
The hurricane’s first coastal target after leaving Cuba was Everglades City, a small southwest Florida town wrecked by another hurricane in 1960 [Hurricane Donna].
The hurricane identified as Isbell, battered the town briefly with gusts up to 105 miles an hour. Roofs were lifted off some houses in Everglades City, some utility poles were knocked down and a few trees uprooted…
Six known tornadoes spun out of the hurricane as it moved rapidly northeast across the marshy tip of the state, from the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic Ocean.
Should Wilma make U.S. landfall as a major hurricane, it would be the 4th such storm to make U.S. landfall this season. That would set a new record for most major hurricanes to make U.S. landfall in a season.
Estimated Track:
17.5N 81.8W
20.0N 85.2W
22.5N 85.5W
25.0N 83.5W
27.5N 80.2W
Estimated Intensity:
Maximum intensity: 115 mph – 125 mph
Intensity at U.S. Landfall: 110 mph
rainstorm - October 18, 2005 09:31 PM (GMT)
very disturbing indeed
donsutherland1 - October 19, 2005 12:18 AM (GMT)
Hurricane Wilma has undergone rapid intensification to 954 mb and maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. With Wilma continuing to traverse 29°C-30°C waters over the next day or two, she could continue to strengthen.
The Hurricane Heat Content is particularly high for most of Wilma's track. As a result, there is a growing possibility that Wilma could become the 4th major hurricane to make U.S. landfall this season.
For those who are interested, since 1851, 8 hurricanes that formed in October have made U.S. landfall in October. Hurricane Hazel (1954) was the sole Category 4 hurricane at landfall. Hurricane #6 (1921) made landfall near Tampa Bay as a Category 3 hurricane but had peaked as a Category 4 hurricane.
An additional, 7 hurricanes that formed in September made U.S. landfall as major hurricanes in October. 2 were Category 4 hurricanes at landfall: Hurricane #10 (1893) and Hurricane #6 (1898). 4 of those hurricanes peaked as Category 4 hurricanes.
The most recent hurricane to make U.S. landfall in October as a major hurricane was Hurricane Opal (1995). Opal formed in September. The most recent hurricane to make October landfall as a major hurricane that formed in October was Hurricane Hazel (1954).
Hurricane Heat Content:
The Hurricane Heat Content is particularly high for most of Wilma's track. As a result, there is a growing possibility that Wilma could become the 4th major hurricane to make U.S. landfall this season.
For those who are interested, since 1851, 8 hurricanes that formed in October have made U.S. landfall in October. Hurricane Hazel (1954) was the sole Category 4 hurricane at landfall. Hurricane #6 (1921) made landfall near Tampa Bay as a Category 3 hurricane but had peaked as a Category 4 hurricane.
An additional, 7 hurricanes that formed in September made U.S. landfall as major hurricanes in October. 2 were Category 4 hurricanes at landfall: Hurricane #10 (1893) and Hurricane #6 (1898). 4 of those hurricanes peaked as Category 4 hurricanes.
The most recent hurricane to make U.S. landfall in October as a major hurricane was Hurricane Opal (1995). Opal formed in September. The most recent hurricane to make October landfall as a major hurricane that formed in October was Hurricane Hazel (1954).
Hurricane Heat Content:
| CODE |
DTG LAT LON ANALYS DTG SSHA SST Z26 HHC 2005101821 ACT 16.70N 81.50W 2005101800 0.040 29.262 96.656 22.019 2005101906 FOR 17.30N 82.30W 2005101800 0.018 29.355 85.053 19.384 2005101918 FOR 18.20N 83.50W 2005101800 -0.025 29.490 93.703 22.207 2005102006 FOR 19.10N 84.50W 2005101800 -0.061 29.675 106.458 26.538 2005102018 FOR 20.20N 85.20W 2005101800 0.005 29.754 130.511 33.305 2005102118 FOR 22.50N 85.50W 2005101800 0.018 29.399 124.203 29.671 2005102218 FOR 25.00N 82.50W 2005101800 0.035 28.822 200.000 50.000 2005102318 FOR 30.50N 75.50W 2005101800 -0.122 27.231 51.855 4.819 |
A gradual increase in wind shear could allow for some weakening prior to landfall in southwest Florida.
Given Wilma's recent more westerly track, I have adjusted the short-term ideas. The longer-term portion of the track remains unchanged. I have also increased my anticipated maximum intensity to 135 mph. In part, this has to do with the high hurricane heat content that lies ahead.. In part, it also has to do with the fact that Wilma's winds could be "catching up" to its central pressure (954 mb hurricanes typically have winds in the 115 mph - 120 mph range). There remains potential that Wilma could grow even stronger.
Until I have a better idea as to the shear that could impact Wilma prior to Florida landfall, I will leave my initial estimate of a 110 mph landfalling storm unchanged.
Estimated Track:
17.5N 83.0W
20.0N 85.5W
22.5N 85.5W
25.0N 83.5W
27.5N 80.2W
Estimated Intensity:
Maximum intensity: 135 mph
Intensity at U.S. Landfall: 110 mph
donsutherland1 - October 19, 2005 03:48 PM (GMT)
At 11 am, Hurricane Wilma was centered at 17.4N 83.2W with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph and a central pressure of 882 mb (26.05"). At this point in time, the overall synoptic situation continues to evolve pretty much along the general lines discussed previously. Hence, Wilma should make landfall in southwestern Florida and then head northeast to north-northeastward from there.
In its longer-term, it could bring heavy rains and destructive winds to a portion of eastern New England and eastern Canada before making possible landfall on Nova Scotia as a powerful extratropical cyclone.
Given Wilma's current intensity and the environment ahead of it, I have adjusted upward my intensity for Florida landfall to 115 mph. Considering how Katrina and Rita weakened significantly from their peak strength to strength at landfall, I'll wait for additional data before making any additional upward adjustments. Such a possibility does exist.
Stronger storms than what I have currently estimated have made Florida landfall. On October 11, 1846 a Category 4/possible Category 5 hurricane made landfall on Key West. The October 31, 1846 issue of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle reported that a "terrible gale in the Gulf, of a fury which is unexampled" hit Key West. "It commenced blowing from the northeast on the morning of the 11th, and the tide rose rapidly. The storm increasing in violence raged to a hurricane until midnight when it abated. The next day it blew a moderate gale. But the hurricane had swept away every swelling-house save six, in Key West. They were totally destoryed. The Custom House adn the Marine Hospital were both unroofed."
All said, I now believe the record-setting 2005 hurricane season will see an unprecedented 4th major hurricane make U.S. landfall.
Estimated Track:
17.5N 83.3W
20.0N 85.9W
22.5N 85.6W
25.0N 83.5W
27.5N 80.2W
30.0N 77.5W
32.5N 75.0W
35.0N 73.0W
37.5N 71.0W
40.0N 69.0W
Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at U.S. Landfall: 115 mph
In its longer-term, it could bring heavy rains and destructive winds to a portion of eastern New England and eastern Canada before making possible landfall on Nova Scotia as a powerful extratropical cyclone.
Given Wilma's current intensity and the environment ahead of it, I have adjusted upward my intensity for Florida landfall to 115 mph. Considering how Katrina and Rita weakened significantly from their peak strength to strength at landfall, I'll wait for additional data before making any additional upward adjustments. Such a possibility does exist.
Stronger storms than what I have currently estimated have made Florida landfall. On October 11, 1846 a Category 4/possible Category 5 hurricane made landfall on Key West. The October 31, 1846 issue of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle reported that a "terrible gale in the Gulf, of a fury which is unexampled" hit Key West. "It commenced blowing from the northeast on the morning of the 11th, and the tide rose rapidly. The storm increasing in violence raged to a hurricane until midnight when it abated. The next day it blew a moderate gale. But the hurricane had swept away every swelling-house save six, in Key West. They were totally destoryed. The Custom House adn the Marine Hospital were both unroofed."
All said, I now believe the record-setting 2005 hurricane season will see an unprecedented 4th major hurricane make U.S. landfall.
Estimated Track:
17.5N 83.3W
20.0N 85.9W
22.5N 85.6W
25.0N 83.5W
27.5N 80.2W
30.0N 77.5W
32.5N 75.0W
35.0N 73.0W
37.5N 71.0W
40.0N 69.0W
Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at U.S. Landfall: 115 mph
rainstorm - October 19, 2005 04:54 PM (GMT)
great write up don. thank god it will weaken some
donsutherland1 - October 20, 2005 03:10 AM (GMT)
| QUOTE (rainstorm @ Wednesday Oct 19 2005, 11:54: AM) |
| great write up don. thank god it will weaken some |
Thanks, Rainstorm.
donsutherland1 - October 20, 2005 03:10 AM (GMT)
As of the 11 pm advisory, things continue to run pretty much as expected with regard to the early portion of Wilma's track. She should turn more to the northwest later tonight and tomorrow.
Of concern is the extended range, where some of the guidance is hinting at an earlier phase and taking Wilma on a course that could be quite destructive for the Northeastern United States, should it materialize. The latest run of the GFDL takes Wilma ashore south-southwest of Providence, Rhode Island.
Such a track would have the potential to bring flooding rains to an already soggy New England, along with damaging winds to Providence, Boston, and Portland, and perhaps even west of there depending on the progress of Wilma's transition to an extratropical storm. The 18z GFS begins the transition in earnest by the time Wilma is forecast to be passing well off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Considering that SSTs well off the DE/NJ coast are < 23°C, such a solution is plausible. However, passage over the Gulf Stream could delay the onset and progress of the extratropical transition.
In any case, much like many previous tropical cyclones to impact or threaten the Northeast, Wilma is likely to be a fast-mover. All said, the 18z GFDL track would create the possibility of a major blow-down, in addition to flooding.
Right now, it is too soon to see if this westward trend holds up, much less whether such a track (18z GFDL) or one to its west will result. Fortunately, there is plenty of time to further assess Wilma's post-Florida future.
In the meantime, I will retain my existing track, which is now in the middle between two clusters of guidance. My confidence in a southwest Florida landfall is growing.
Estimated Track:
17.5N 83.3W; Actual: 17.5N 83.5W; Error: 13 miles--2.5 hours in advance
20.0N 85.9W
22.5N 85.6W
25.0N 83.5W
27.5N 80.2W
30.0N 77.5W
32.5N 75.0W
35.0N 73.0W
37.5N 71.0W
40.0N 69.0W
Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at U.S. Landfall: 115 mph
Of concern is the extended range, where some of the guidance is hinting at an earlier phase and taking Wilma on a course that could be quite destructive for the Northeastern United States, should it materialize. The latest run of the GFDL takes Wilma ashore south-southwest of Providence, Rhode Island.
Such a track would have the potential to bring flooding rains to an already soggy New England, along with damaging winds to Providence, Boston, and Portland, and perhaps even west of there depending on the progress of Wilma's transition to an extratropical storm. The 18z GFS begins the transition in earnest by the time Wilma is forecast to be passing well off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Considering that SSTs well off the DE/NJ coast are < 23°C, such a solution is plausible. However, passage over the Gulf Stream could delay the onset and progress of the extratropical transition.
In any case, much like many previous tropical cyclones to impact or threaten the Northeast, Wilma is likely to be a fast-mover. All said, the 18z GFDL track would create the possibility of a major blow-down, in addition to flooding.
Right now, it is too soon to see if this westward trend holds up, much less whether such a track (18z GFDL) or one to its west will result. Fortunately, there is plenty of time to further assess Wilma's post-Florida future.
In the meantime, I will retain my existing track, which is now in the middle between two clusters of guidance. My confidence in a southwest Florida landfall is growing.
Estimated Track:
17.5N 83.3W; Actual: 17.5N 83.5W; Error: 13 miles--2.5 hours in advance
20.0N 85.9W
22.5N 85.6W
25.0N 83.5W
27.5N 80.2W
30.0N 77.5W
32.5N 75.0W
35.0N 73.0W
37.5N 71.0W
40.0N 69.0W
Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at U.S. Landfall: 115 mph
donsutherland1 - October 20, 2005 02:11 PM (GMT)
Overnight, Wilma continued to track mainly to the west-northwest. As a result, I have made some adjustments to my outlined track to better reflect this motion and to take into consideration the 0z and 6z guidance. In the larger scheme of things, my general thinking remains essentially the same: landfall in southwest Florida after a possible brush with the Yucatan Peninsula. Later, Wilma should threaten a portion of New England and eastern Canada as a strong extratropical storm.
In terms of its initial U.S. landfall, it continues to appear that Wilma will make landfall in southwest Florida. That landfall will likely occur just to the south of Naples:
That position is about 12 miles from my initial estimate.
In the extended range, with an up to 4 standard deviation trough to its west, I don’t believe that Wilma will be swept as far east as some of the guidance suggests. It will likely track northeastward and then north-northeastward, bypassing most of New England before making landfall as a powerful extratropical cyclone in either easternmost Maine or eastern Canada.
There is a chance that Wilma could be the first tropical cyclone to form in October and make eastern Canadian landfall with hurricane-force winds since Hurricane Michael made landfall on Newfoundland with 85 mph (140 kph) maximum sustained winds and a central pressure of 966 mb late on October 19, 2000.
Estimated Track:
20.0N 86.4W
22.5N 85.8W
25.0N 83.2W
27.5N 80.0W
30.0N 77.0W
32.5N 74.5W
35.0N 72.5W
37.5N 70.5W
40.0N 69.0W
Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at Yucatan Hit or Landfall: 135 mph
Intensity at Florida Landfall: 115 mph
In terms of its initial U.S. landfall, it continues to appear that Wilma will make landfall in southwest Florida. That landfall will likely occur just to the south of Naples:
That position is about 12 miles from my initial estimate.
In the extended range, with an up to 4 standard deviation trough to its west, I don’t believe that Wilma will be swept as far east as some of the guidance suggests. It will likely track northeastward and then north-northeastward, bypassing most of New England before making landfall as a powerful extratropical cyclone in either easternmost Maine or eastern Canada.
There is a chance that Wilma could be the first tropical cyclone to form in October and make eastern Canadian landfall with hurricane-force winds since Hurricane Michael made landfall on Newfoundland with 85 mph (140 kph) maximum sustained winds and a central pressure of 966 mb late on October 19, 2000.
Estimated Track:
20.0N 86.4W
22.5N 85.8W
25.0N 83.2W
27.5N 80.0W
30.0N 77.0W
32.5N 74.5W
35.0N 72.5W
37.5N 70.5W
40.0N 69.0W
Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at Yucatan Hit or Landfall: 135 mph
Intensity at Florida Landfall: 115 mph
rainstorm - October 20, 2005 07:45 PM (GMT)
will it slow further?
Gulf Breeze - October 20, 2005 08:38 PM (GMT)
Is it my imagination or is she going through a second eyewall replacement cycle? Sure looks like it to me. :unsure:
rainstorm - October 20, 2005 11:43 PM (GMT)
not sure. where is don?
donsutherland1 - October 21, 2005 01:07 PM (GMT)
Important questions remain as to Wilma's situation in coming days, with some models punching it west of 88°W longitude before it makes a turn. The GFDL brings it to 88.2W and then later brings it north-northwest near the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast following its passage across the Florida Peninsula.
At this time, given that the initial part of my track, which lay to the east of most of the model guidance has worked out reasonably well through this morning (errors for 20.0N: 65 miles/66 hours in advance; 19 miles/41.5 hours in advance; 13 miles/19.0 hours in advance), I'll leave it as it is until later guidance and Wilma's track dictate changes are necessary.
As my track does not punch Wilma deep into the Yucatan, I'll also leave my Florida landfall intensity as it currently stands. A weaker storm is possible, but that's something that I'll call later if the data actually appears to support it.
Estimated Track:
20.0N 86.4W; Actual: 20.0N 86.2W; Error: 13 miles--19.0 hours in advance
22.5N 85.8W
25.0N 83.2W
27.5N 80.0W
30.0N 77.0W
32.5N 74.5W
35.0N 72.5W
37.5N 70.5W
40.0N 69.0W
Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at Yucatan Hit or Landfall: 135 mph
Intensity at Florida Landfall: 115 mph
At this time, given that the initial part of my track, which lay to the east of most of the model guidance has worked out reasonably well through this morning (errors for 20.0N: 65 miles/66 hours in advance; 19 miles/41.5 hours in advance; 13 miles/19.0 hours in advance), I'll leave it as it is until later guidance and Wilma's track dictate changes are necessary.
As my track does not punch Wilma deep into the Yucatan, I'll also leave my Florida landfall intensity as it currently stands. A weaker storm is possible, but that's something that I'll call later if the data actually appears to support it.
Estimated Track:
20.0N 86.4W; Actual: 20.0N 86.2W; Error: 13 miles--19.0 hours in advance
22.5N 85.8W
25.0N 83.2W
27.5N 80.0W
30.0N 77.0W
32.5N 74.5W
35.0N 72.5W
37.5N 70.5W
40.0N 69.0W
Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at Yucatan Hit or Landfall: 135 mph
Intensity at Florida Landfall: 115 mph
donsutherland1 - October 21, 2005 01:09 PM (GMT)
Gulfbreeze,
I believe it went through a single eyewall replacement cycle, but its progression was "messy" for lack of a better term and so it migh have appeared that a second such cycle was occurring.
I believe it went through a single eyewall replacement cycle, but its progression was "messy" for lack of a better term and so it migh have appeared that a second such cycle was occurring.
rainstorm - October 21, 2005 09:19 PM (GMT)
do you expect devastation in cancun, don?
donsutherland1 - October 22, 2005 01:58 AM (GMT)
Rainstorm,
Cancun will certainly suffer significant damage. It does have many modern structures, so it won't face complete destruction. Nevertheless, the damage will be significant.
Cancun will certainly suffer significant damage. It does have many modern structures, so it won't face complete destruction. Nevertheless, the damage will be significant.
donsutherland1 - October 22, 2005 02:01 AM (GMT)
A few late evening thoughts:
∙ The model guidance is now in reasonable consensus that Wilma will likely make southwest Florida landfall on Monday. That's earlier than the Tuesday timeframe that a number of the models had been suggesting earlier today
∙ Wilma is likely to track slowly across the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and slowly weaken in the process. However, it is not heading into the Yucatan at an unfavorable trajectory, hence, I do not believe its core will suffer the destruction that Isidore (2002) experienced.
∙ Wilma will probably regenerate around 20 knots once she departs the Yucatan later tomorrow. Some weakening just prior to Florida landfall is possible. Right now, I won't make any changes in Wilma's intensity at that point.
∙ Once Wilma clears Florida, she will likely track to the northeast and then bend more toward the north-northeast. Later, it is possible that she could turn due north or somewhat west of north as she approaches eastern Canada or after she has made landfall there (New Brunswick or Nova Scotia). There remains some chance of landfall in eastern Maine.
Given the latest guidance and Wilma's progress, I have made some small adjustments to my estimated track. The impact is to shift Wilma's southwest Florida landfall approximately 8 miles west-northwest of my previous position:
Estimated Track:
22.5N 87.0W
25.0N 83.5W
27.5N 80.0W
30.0N 77.0W
32.5N 74.5W
35.0N 72.5W
37.5N 70.5W
40.0N 69.0W
42.5N 67.5W
45.0N 68.0W
Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at Yucatan Hit or Landfall: 135 mph; Actual: 140 mph; Error: 5 mph--31.0 hours in advance
Intensity at Florida Landfall: 115 mph
∙ The model guidance is now in reasonable consensus that Wilma will likely make southwest Florida landfall on Monday. That's earlier than the Tuesday timeframe that a number of the models had been suggesting earlier today
∙ Wilma is likely to track slowly across the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and slowly weaken in the process. However, it is not heading into the Yucatan at an unfavorable trajectory, hence, I do not believe its core will suffer the destruction that Isidore (2002) experienced.
∙ Wilma will probably regenerate around 20 knots once she departs the Yucatan later tomorrow. Some weakening just prior to Florida landfall is possible. Right now, I won't make any changes in Wilma's intensity at that point.
∙ Once Wilma clears Florida, she will likely track to the northeast and then bend more toward the north-northeast. Later, it is possible that she could turn due north or somewhat west of north as she approaches eastern Canada or after she has made landfall there (New Brunswick or Nova Scotia). There remains some chance of landfall in eastern Maine.
Given the latest guidance and Wilma's progress, I have made some small adjustments to my estimated track. The impact is to shift Wilma's southwest Florida landfall approximately 8 miles west-northwest of my previous position:
Estimated Track:
22.5N 87.0W
25.0N 83.5W
27.5N 80.0W
30.0N 77.0W
32.5N 74.5W
35.0N 72.5W
37.5N 70.5W
40.0N 69.0W
42.5N 67.5W
45.0N 68.0W
Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at Yucatan Hit or Landfall: 135 mph; Actual: 140 mph; Error: 5 mph--31.0 hours in advance
Intensity at Florida Landfall: 115 mph
donsutherland1 - October 22, 2005 10:16 PM (GMT)
Some quick early evening thoughts:
∙ Wilma is close to re-emerging off the Yucatan Peninsula and is still a fairly formidable storm with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph.
∙ From radar and satellite imagery, it appears that Wilma's core is reasonably intact considering the amount of time she spend over the Yucatan Peninsula.
In my view, this development is not unexpected. Wilma did not enter the Yucatan Peninsula from the north after having passed over a "cool shadow" in the SSTs as happened with Isidore (2002).
∙ Tropical cyclones departing the Yucatan Peninsula and heading for Florida have typically regained approximately 20 knots in their intensity from their low point following passage across the Yucatan. So, I would not be surprised if Wilma has a post-Yucatan peak intensity of around 120 mph - 125 mph. Some weakening could occur just before landfall.
∙ The 5 pm NHC discussion makes clear two important points: (1) Wilma will likely be a Category 2 or 3 hurricane at Florida landfall; (2) Wilma's windfield will be expanding:
[i]AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN... AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL BE A CATEGORY TWO OR THREE AT LANDFALL. THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AS IT ACCELERATES AND CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREFORE... THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A LARGE AREA.
This means that southeast Florida will likely experience Category 1 or 2 conditions. So residents there should be prepared even as Wilma makes southwest Florida landfall.
All said, both the landfall idea and intensity at landfall still appear very reasonable.
Estimated Track:
22.5N 87.0W
25.0N 83.5W
27.5N 80.0W
30.0N 77.0W
32.5N 74.5W
35.0N 72.5W
37.5N 70.5W
40.0N 69.0W
42.5N 67.5W
45.0N 68.0W
Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at Yucatan Hit or Landfall: 135 mph; Actual: 140 mph; Error: 5 mph--31.0 hours in advance
Intensity at Florida Landfall: 115 mph
∙ Wilma is close to re-emerging off the Yucatan Peninsula and is still a fairly formidable storm with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph.
∙ From radar and satellite imagery, it appears that Wilma's core is reasonably intact considering the amount of time she spend over the Yucatan Peninsula.
In my view, this development is not unexpected. Wilma did not enter the Yucatan Peninsula from the north after having passed over a "cool shadow" in the SSTs as happened with Isidore (2002).
∙ Tropical cyclones departing the Yucatan Peninsula and heading for Florida have typically regained approximately 20 knots in their intensity from their low point following passage across the Yucatan. So, I would not be surprised if Wilma has a post-Yucatan peak intensity of around 120 mph - 125 mph. Some weakening could occur just before landfall.
∙ The 5 pm NHC discussion makes clear two important points: (1) Wilma will likely be a Category 2 or 3 hurricane at Florida landfall; (2) Wilma's windfield will be expanding:
[i]AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN... AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL BE A CATEGORY TWO OR THREE AT LANDFALL. THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AS IT ACCELERATES AND CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREFORE... THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A LARGE AREA.
This means that southeast Florida will likely experience Category 1 or 2 conditions. So residents there should be prepared even as Wilma makes southwest Florida landfall.
All said, both the landfall idea and intensity at landfall still appear very reasonable.
Estimated Track:
22.5N 87.0W
25.0N 83.5W
27.5N 80.0W
30.0N 77.0W
32.5N 74.5W
35.0N 72.5W
37.5N 70.5W
40.0N 69.0W
42.5N 67.5W
45.0N 68.0W
Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at Yucatan Hit or Landfall: 135 mph; Actual: 140 mph; Error: 5 mph--31.0 hours in advance
Intensity at Florida Landfall: 115 mph
rainstorm - October 22, 2005 11:08 PM (GMT)
im afraid wilma will be a cat3 for naples
donsutherland1 - October 23, 2005 03:20 AM (GMT)
Hurricane Wilma has emerged from the Yucatan Peninsula with 100 mph maximum sustained winds. In addition, it has had some recent east of north movement and a gradual turn east of north may be getting underway.
With the 18z GFDL and some of the trends in the modeling between the 10/22 12z and 18z runs, the track remains essentially unchanged. The position at 22.5N is shifted a little to the right to reflect the possible commencement of an east of north motion.
Right now, given Wilma's appearance on the radar, it does appear that the intensity idea for Florida landfall still looks good.
Estimated Track:
22.5N 86.5W
25.0N 83.5W
27.5N 80.0W
30.0N 77.0W
32.5N 74.5W
35.0N 72.5W
37.5N 70.5W
40.0N 69.0W
42.5N 67.5W
45.0N 68.0W
Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at Yucatan Hit or Landfall: 135 mph; Actual: 140 mph; Error: 5 mph--31.0 hours in advance
Intensity at Florida Landfall: 115 mph
With the 18z GFDL and some of the trends in the modeling between the 10/22 12z and 18z runs, the track remains essentially unchanged. The position at 22.5N is shifted a little to the right to reflect the possible commencement of an east of north motion.
Right now, given Wilma's appearance on the radar, it does appear that the intensity idea for Florida landfall still looks good.
Estimated Track:
22.5N 86.5W
25.0N 83.5W
27.5N 80.0W
30.0N 77.0W
32.5N 74.5W
35.0N 72.5W
37.5N 70.5W
40.0N 69.0W
42.5N 67.5W
45.0N 68.0W
Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at Yucatan Hit or Landfall: 135 mph; Actual: 140 mph; Error: 5 mph--31.0 hours in advance
Intensity at Florida Landfall: 115 mph
donsutherland1 - October 23, 2005 03:20 PM (GMT)
Hurricane Wilma continues to track off to the northeast. It has been running somewhat to the east of my outlined track, so I've made some minor modifications to take into consideration this motion.
As a result, I've shifted my landfall estimate a little to the east-southeast of my previous estimate. However, landfall still appears likely in the same general area. Therefore, a portion of southwest Florida could experience Category 2 or 3 conditions, while a part of southeast Florida could see Category 1 or perhaps Category 2 conditions.
Landfall will either occur very late tonight or early tomorrow, as Wilma continues to gradually accelerate.
In terms of Wilma's intensity, I believe that it will begin to strengthen this afternoon. At that time, it should be passing over the large tongue of 29°C-30°C water.
Estimated Track:
25.0N 83.0W
27.5N 80.0W
30.0N 77.0W
32.5N 74.5W
35.0N 72.5W
37.5N 70.5W
40.0N 69.0W
42.5N 67.5W
45.0N 68.0W
Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at Yucatan Hit or Landfall: 135 mph; Actual: 140 mph; Error: 5 mph--31.0 hours in advance
Intensity at Florida Landfall: 115 mph
As a result, I've shifted my landfall estimate a little to the east-southeast of my previous estimate. However, landfall still appears likely in the same general area. Therefore, a portion of southwest Florida could experience Category 2 or 3 conditions, while a part of southeast Florida could see Category 1 or perhaps Category 2 conditions.
Landfall will either occur very late tonight or early tomorrow, as Wilma continues to gradually accelerate.
In terms of Wilma's intensity, I believe that it will begin to strengthen this afternoon. At that time, it should be passing over the large tongue of 29°C-30°C water.
Estimated Track:
25.0N 83.0W
27.5N 80.0W
30.0N 77.0W
32.5N 74.5W
35.0N 72.5W
37.5N 70.5W
40.0N 69.0W
42.5N 67.5W
45.0N 68.0W
Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at Yucatan Hit or Landfall: 135 mph; Actual: 140 mph; Error: 5 mph--31.0 hours in advance
Intensity at Florida Landfall: 115 mph
donsutherland1 - October 24, 2005 12:26 AM (GMT)
Hurricane Wilma, now packing maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, continues to accelerate toward the Florida Peninsula at a general 50°-55° northeastward motion:
6-Hour Trajectory:
10/23 11 am: 56° northeast
10/23 2 pm: 51° northeast
10/23 5 pm: 50° northeast
10/23 8 pm: 50° northeast
Tomorrow morning, Wilma should make landfall in southwestern Florida and then continue to head east-northeast to northeast across the Peninsula.
In her closing hours prior to landfall, Wilma will be crossing 27°C-28°C waters. However, there could be some increase in the shear. This could cap Wilma’s intensification process. Nonetheless, by the time the shear increases to an extent necessary to degrade Wilma’s strength, Wilma could already be onshore or coming ashore.
The NHC’s 5 pm discussion does a great job in highlighting such a possibility:
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT REVEAL ANY OBVIOUS SIGNS THAT THE SHEAR IS YET STRONG ENOUGH TO REVERSE THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND...AND IT MIGHT NOT INCREASE IN TIME TO INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND BEFORE LANDFALL. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF LANDFALL INTENSITY IS CATEGORY TWO...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WILMA COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.
Therefore, I will maintain my estimate that Wilma will likely make landfall with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph.
Once Wilma crosses back out over the Atlantic, some of the guidance points to interesting possibilities. While the dreaded complete phase near New England is not likely, there should be sufficient linkage (to borrow meteorologist Larry Cosgrove’s phraseology) between Wilma (possibly after its having partially or fully having entrained Alpha beforehand) and a strong trough to its west to promote a significant rainfall along the coastal regions of the northern Mid-Atlantic states and coastal New England. An area running encompassing running from the Poconos in Pennsylvania, to the Green Mountains in Vermont and the White Mountains in New Hampshire could pick up a heavy accumulation of wet snow.
On October 3-4, 1841, an offshore hurricane produced gales and heavy rains along coastal regions and heavy snow inland. The October 8, 1841 edition of The Farmers’ Cabinet reported:
Considerable damage has been done in the interior by the prostration of trees, fences and buildings. Great quantities of fruit have been prematurely blown off. In the western part of the state [Massachusetts] large quantities of snow fell. We are told that in some parts of Berkshire, near the summit level of the Western Railroad, and also in some of the hill towns of Hampden County, the snow on Monday morning [October 4] was a foot deep.
Another interesting scenario that has shown up on the 18z GFS and since the 12z GFDL is the possibility of the development of a strong coastal storm well off Cape Cod. That system is presented as very formidable in its own right (~980 mb) and would likely tap Wilma.
All said, southwest and southeast Florida will likely experience hurricane conditions early tomorrow. Then the parts of New England and even the northern Mid-Atlantic will suffer a blow from the complex situation expected to unfold.
Given the hints of coastal cyclogenesis (the GFDL lists the system as a “future cyclone”), I will adjust Wilma’s track farther to the east in the extended range. Finally, extratropical Wilma will likely make landfall in Nova Scotia with maximum sustained winds probably in the 65 mph – 75 mph range.
Estimated Track:
25.0N 83.0W
27.5N 80.0W
30.0N 77.0W
32.5N 74.0W
35.0N 71.5W
37.5N 69.5W
40.0N 68.0W
42.5N 66.5W
45.0N 65.0W
Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at Yucatan Hit or Landfall: 135 mph; Actual: 140 mph; Error: 5 mph--31.0 hours in advance
Intensity at Florida Landfall: 115 mph
6-Hour Trajectory:
10/23 11 am: 56° northeast
10/23 2 pm: 51° northeast
10/23 5 pm: 50° northeast
10/23 8 pm: 50° northeast
Tomorrow morning, Wilma should make landfall in southwestern Florida and then continue to head east-northeast to northeast across the Peninsula.
In her closing hours prior to landfall, Wilma will be crossing 27°C-28°C waters. However, there could be some increase in the shear. This could cap Wilma’s intensification process. Nonetheless, by the time the shear increases to an extent necessary to degrade Wilma’s strength, Wilma could already be onshore or coming ashore.
The NHC’s 5 pm discussion does a great job in highlighting such a possibility:
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT REVEAL ANY OBVIOUS SIGNS THAT THE SHEAR IS YET STRONG ENOUGH TO REVERSE THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND...AND IT MIGHT NOT INCREASE IN TIME TO INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND BEFORE LANDFALL. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF LANDFALL INTENSITY IS CATEGORY TWO...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WILMA COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.
Therefore, I will maintain my estimate that Wilma will likely make landfall with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph.
Once Wilma crosses back out over the Atlantic, some of the guidance points to interesting possibilities. While the dreaded complete phase near New England is not likely, there should be sufficient linkage (to borrow meteorologist Larry Cosgrove’s phraseology) between Wilma (possibly after its having partially or fully having entrained Alpha beforehand) and a strong trough to its west to promote a significant rainfall along the coastal regions of the northern Mid-Atlantic states and coastal New England. An area running encompassing running from the Poconos in Pennsylvania, to the Green Mountains in Vermont and the White Mountains in New Hampshire could pick up a heavy accumulation of wet snow.
On October 3-4, 1841, an offshore hurricane produced gales and heavy rains along coastal regions and heavy snow inland. The October 8, 1841 edition of The Farmers’ Cabinet reported:
Considerable damage has been done in the interior by the prostration of trees, fences and buildings. Great quantities of fruit have been prematurely blown off. In the western part of the state [Massachusetts] large quantities of snow fell. We are told that in some parts of Berkshire, near the summit level of the Western Railroad, and also in some of the hill towns of Hampden County, the snow on Monday morning [October 4] was a foot deep.
Another interesting scenario that has shown up on the 18z GFS and since the 12z GFDL is the possibility of the development of a strong coastal storm well off Cape Cod. That system is presented as very formidable in its own right (~980 mb) and would likely tap Wilma.
All said, southwest and southeast Florida will likely experience hurricane conditions early tomorrow. Then the parts of New England and even the northern Mid-Atlantic will suffer a blow from the complex situation expected to unfold.
Given the hints of coastal cyclogenesis (the GFDL lists the system as a “future cyclone”), I will adjust Wilma’s track farther to the east in the extended range. Finally, extratropical Wilma will likely make landfall in Nova Scotia with maximum sustained winds probably in the 65 mph – 75 mph range.
Estimated Track:
25.0N 83.0W
27.5N 80.0W
30.0N 77.0W
32.5N 74.0W
35.0N 71.5W
37.5N 69.5W
40.0N 68.0W
42.5N 66.5W
45.0N 65.0W
Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at Yucatan Hit or Landfall: 135 mph; Actual: 140 mph; Error: 5 mph--31.0 hours in advance
Intensity at Florida Landfall: 115 mph
rainstorm - October 24, 2005 12:27 AM (GMT)
any updates don? it looks more intense
donsutherland1 - October 24, 2005 05:42 PM (GMT)
Earlier today, Hurricane Wilma made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. In doing so, the recordbreaking 2005 hurricane season became the first Atlantic season to have 4 major hurricanes make U.S. landfall.
The evolution of a strong coastal low coming out of the Great Lakes appears much better today. As a result, Wilma's post-Florida track will likely be farther to the east.
Last night's discussion described the post-Florida effects and I have no major changes to make at this time. The coastal Mid-Atlantic and coastal New England will likely experience a widespread wind-swept rain. Amounts of 1"-3" are likely. Interior parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England could see some snow and rain with some small accumulations. The higher elevations there, should see a potentially significant accumulation of wet snow.
Estimated Track:
30.0N 76.0W
32.5N 73.0W
35.0N 70.5W
37.5N 69.0W
40.0N 67.0W
42.5N 64.5W
45.0N 62.0W
Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at Yucatan Hit or Landfall: 135 mph; Actual: 140 mph; Error: 5 mph--31.0 hours in advance
Intensity at Florida Landfall: 115 mph; Actual: 125 mph; Error: 10 mph--115.5 hours in advance
The evolution of a strong coastal low coming out of the Great Lakes appears much better today. As a result, Wilma's post-Florida track will likely be farther to the east.
Last night's discussion described the post-Florida effects and I have no major changes to make at this time. The coastal Mid-Atlantic and coastal New England will likely experience a widespread wind-swept rain. Amounts of 1"-3" are likely. Interior parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England could see some snow and rain with some small accumulations. The higher elevations there, should see a potentially significant accumulation of wet snow.
Estimated Track:
30.0N 76.0W
32.5N 73.0W
35.0N 70.5W
37.5N 69.0W
40.0N 67.0W
42.5N 64.5W
45.0N 62.0W
Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at Yucatan Hit or Landfall: 135 mph; Actual: 140 mph; Error: 5 mph--31.0 hours in advance
Intensity at Florida Landfall: 115 mph; Actual: 125 mph; Error: 10 mph--115.5 hours in advance
rainstorm - October 25, 2005 01:22 AM (GMT)
good call don, can you lead our winter forum?
weather1man - October 25, 2005 01:29 AM (GMT)
I appreciate your knowledge don. Is a superstorm possible for the NE tommorrow?
kman4life05 - October 25, 2005 03:17 AM (GMT)
Only in the upper eleavations and possible around the lakes. Depends on how ast the cold will move in at 850 heights. However I dont think many areas will see 6 or more inches of snow from this though. This is a very rare storm to see a tropical storm being snows to areas. I beleive the term of it is a type of 'hybrid'
donsutherland1 - October 25, 2005 03:12 PM (GMT)
At 11 am, Hurricane Wilma was centered at 38.5N 66.0W and streaking to the northeast at 53 mph. Her maximum sustained winds are 105 mph.
Wilma should continue to head rapidly away from the U.S. and add an even more easterly component to its track. As a result, earlier ideas for positions from 40.0N and northward will be subject to substantial errors. That part of the forecast fared very poorly and the exact size of the errors will appear in the verification to be posted tomorrow or Thursday.
As a result, while there remains a small chance of a more westerly track, the continued development of a strong coastal storm, Wilma's present trajectory and Wilma's rate of speed argue against it. Therfore, it appears that Wilma will not make Canadian landfall but will likely pass to the south and east of Newfoundland and Sable Island.
Nonetheless, eastern Canada will likely be lashed by powerful gales and heavy rains. Winds could gust to 65 mph - 75 mph along the coastline of eastern Canada. Battering waves will likely pound coastal communities.
Finally, with Wilma now tracking over waters cooler than 24°C, she has commenced a transition to an extratropical cyclone. By day's end, she should be passing over waters of 15°C or cooler and could be fully extratropical.
Estimated Track:
40.0N 64.0W
42.5N 60.0W
45.0N 54.5W
Wilma should continue to head rapidly away from the U.S. and add an even more easterly component to its track. As a result, earlier ideas for positions from 40.0N and northward will be subject to substantial errors. That part of the forecast fared very poorly and the exact size of the errors will appear in the verification to be posted tomorrow or Thursday.
As a result, while there remains a small chance of a more westerly track, the continued development of a strong coastal storm, Wilma's present trajectory and Wilma's rate of speed argue against it. Therfore, it appears that Wilma will not make Canadian landfall but will likely pass to the south and east of Newfoundland and Sable Island.
Nonetheless, eastern Canada will likely be lashed by powerful gales and heavy rains. Winds could gust to 65 mph - 75 mph along the coastline of eastern Canada. Battering waves will likely pound coastal communities.
Finally, with Wilma now tracking over waters cooler than 24°C, she has commenced a transition to an extratropical cyclone. By day's end, she should be passing over waters of 15°C or cooler and could be fully extratropical.
Estimated Track:
40.0N 64.0W
42.5N 60.0W
45.0N 54.5W
donsutherland1 - October 25, 2005 03:13 PM (GMT)
| QUOTE (rainstorm @ Monday Oct 24 2005, 08:22: PM) |
| good call don, can you lead our winter forum? |
Rainstorm,
I will provide commentary on winter events here.
donsutherland1 - October 25, 2005 03:14 PM (GMT)
| QUOTE (weather1man @ Monday Oct 24 2005, 08:29: PM) |
| I appreciate your knowledge don. Is a superstorm possible for the NE tommorrow? |
Weather1man,
I believe the nor'easter will be very strong (~980 mb). I don't know if this would constitute "superstorm" proportions, but it certainly will be impressive (and has been already).
donsutherland1 - October 26, 2005 03:21 AM (GMT)
Verification:
Hurricane Wilma was the 21st named storm on record for the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. It was also the 4th major hurricane to make U.S. landfall. This broke the record for major hurricanes making landfall in a single season. The old record was 3 set in 1893, 1909, 1933, 1954 and 2004.
The Florida landfall position was estimated within 26 miles more than 5 1/2 days in advance.
Some Notes on the Use of Historical Analysis & Relative Shear:
As has been often stated by the National Hurricane Center, intensity forecasting is still quite difficult. Hence, in this area, I take into consideration historical information and believe it does provide some useful guidance. It did so with regard to Irene’s regeneration into a hurricane earlier this year and worked very well with Wilma.
In terms of Wilma’s intensity at Florida landfall, the idea of a strong hurricane had showed up in an examination of historic hurricanes that developed in a similar location to Wilma. Thus, even when Wilma was TD 24, it appeared likely that southwest Florida would eventually face a formidable hurricane from this storm.
As Wilma approached Yucatan landfall, one of the big issues that arose concerned whether Wilma would be effectively destroyed as occurred with Hurricane Isidore (2002). An examination of landfalling Yucatan hurricanes revealed that the Isidore scenario was not the most likely.
From October 20:
Since 1851, there were 11 hurricanes that met the following criteria:
∙ Passed within 100 nautical miles of Wilma’s 8 pm position of 19.1N 85.9W in October
∙ Did not dissipate on their approach to the Yucatan Peninsula
∙ Had a trajectory that was north of west
4 (36%) crossed the Yucatan Peninsula. Unlike Isidore (2002), none were essentially “destroyed” by their passage across the Yucatan. One such hurricane was Hurricane #13 (1916). Typically following their passage across the Yucatan Peninsula, such storms recovered and increased their maximum sustained winds by approximately 20 knots…
In my view, given the guidance, Wilma should brush the Yucatan—making landfall there—but do so at a northwest heading. Once it moves back out over the Gulf of Mexico, I expect some recovery in its strength. I do not believe it will be decimated for two big reasons:
∙ It will avoid most of the relatively cooler water that lies to the direct north of the Yucatan Peninsula.
∙ It will likely continue to move off to the northwest. Hurricane Isidore (2002) actually passed to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula and then dove to the south making a loop over the Yucatan Peninsula and spent roughly 40 hours over the Yucatan Peninsula.
On October 21, I added:
… a recovery of about 20 knots has typically been the case with such storms that crossed the Yucatan and then headed off toward Florida. Earlier in the season, I likely would have expected a greater recovery given the SSTs. Given a gradual increase in shear, I'll look for a typical recovery. So overall, barring a seriously degraded core, I'll leave things as they currently stand with regard to Wilma's strength at Florida landfall.
On October 22, I stated:
In my view, this development is not unexpected. Wilma did not enter the Yucatan Peninsula from the north after having passed over a "cool shadow" in the SSTs as happened with Isidore (2002).
∙ Tropical cyclones departing the Yucatan Peninsula and heading for Florida have typically regained approximately 20 knots in their intensity from their low point following passage across the Yucatan. So, I would not be surprised if Wilma has a post-Yucatan peak intensity of around 120 mph - 125 mph. Some weakening could occur just before landfall.
To be sure, Wilma’s re-intensification started late. It truly didn’t commence until it had moved over a large tongue of 29°C-30°C waters. It continued afterward. As a hypothesis from historic observations for which SST data has been available, it appears that there are tropical cyclones that, once they move over open water, have a lagged redevelopment. When they move over a patch of very warm water, the intensification process begins and then sustains itself so long as the environment doesn’t grow too hostile. Hence, when Wilma later moved over slightly cooler waters (27°C-28°C), her intensification continued.
Furthermore, her structure continued to improve even as she moved across the Florida Peninsula. Although her top winds dropped to 105 mph by the time she exited, as her dynamics continued to improve, her winds quickly reached 115 mph upon moving back over the Atlantic Ocean. Later they reached 125 mph at 30.2N 76.0W.
With regard to shear, it should also be noted that a storm cutting against the shear will face a much higher relative shear (up to shear + forward motion). One going with the shear will face a lower relative shear (up to shear – some forward motion). Therefore, while I had expected some weakening just prior to landfall on the basis of conservatism, such weakening was not certain.
Given the combination of historic information in assessing Wilma’s recovery prospects and my understanding of the shear environment that would later confront Wilma prior to Florida landfall, it was possible for me to estimate that Wilma would make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph maximum sustained winds more than 100 hours in advance and not waver from that idea. The conservatism of assuming some weakening from the shear largely contributed to my understating the Florida landfall winds, as I had expected Wilma to peak at between 120 mph and 125 mph after its passage across a portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Track Estimates:
• Made: October 18, 2005 11:00 am
17.5N 81.8W; Actual: 17.5N 83.5W; Error: 112 miles—27.0 hours in advance
20.0N 85.2W; Actual: 20.0N 86.2W; Error: 65 miles—66.0 hours in advance
22.5N 85.5W; Actual: 22.5N 86.0W; Error: 32 miles—118.0 hours in advance
25.0N 83.5W; Actual: 25.0N 82.9W; Error: 38 miles—135.5 hours in advance
27.5N 80.2W; Actual: 27.5N 79.1W; Error: 67 miles—146.5 hours in advance
• Made: October 18, 2005 8:00 pm
17.5N 83.0W; Actual: 17.5N 83.5W; Error: 33 miles—18.0 hours in advance
20.0N 85.5W; Actual: 20.0N 86.2W; Error: 45 miles—57.0 hours in advance
22.5N 85.5W; Actual: 22.5N 86.0W; Error: 32 miles—109.0 hours in advance
25.0N 83.5W; Actual: 25.0N 82.9W; Error: 38 miles—126.5 hours in advance
27.5N 80.2W; Actual: 27.5N 79.1W; Error: 67 miles—137.5 hours in advance
• Made: October 19, 2005 11:30 am
17.5N 83.3W; Actual: 17.5N 83.5W; Error: 13 miles—2.5 hours in advance
20.0N 85.9W; Actual: 20.0N 86.2W; Error: 19 miles—41.5 hours in advance
22.5N 85.6W; Actual: 22.5N 86.0W; Error: 26 miles—93.5 hours in advance
25.0N 83.5W; Actual: 25.0N 82.9W; Error: 38 miles—111.0 hours in advance
27.5N 80.2W; Actual: 27.5N 79.1W; Error: 67 miles—122.0 hours in advance
30.0N 77.5W; Actual: 30.0N 76.2W; Error: 78 miles—128.0 hours in advance
32.5N 75.0W; Actual: 32.5N 73.1W; Error: 111 miles—133.0 hours in advance
35.0N 73.0W; Actual: 35.0N 69.8W; Error: 181 miles—138.0 hours in advance
37.5N 71.0W; Actual: 37.5N 67.1W; Error: 214 miles—142.0 hours in advance
40.0N 69.0W; Actual: 40.0N 64.5W; Error: 238 miles—146.5 hours in advance
• Made: October 20, 2005 10:00 am
20.0N 86.4W; Actual: 20.0N 86.2W; Error: 13 miles—19.0 hours in advance
22.5N 85.8W; Actual: 22.5N 86.0W; Error: 13 miles—71.0 hours in advance
25.0N 83.2W; Actual: 25.0N 82.9W; Error: 19 miles—88.5 hours in advance
27.5N 80.0W; Actual: 27.5N 79.1W; Error: 55 miles—99.5 hours in advance
30.0N 77.0W; Actual: 30.0N 76.2W; Error: 48 miles—105.5 hours in advance
32.5N 74.5W; Actual: 32.5N 73.1W; Error: 82 miles—110.5 hours in advance
35.0N 72.5W; Actual: 35.0N 69.8W; Error: 153 miles—115.5 hours in advance
37.5N 70.5W; Actual: 37.5N 67.1W; Error: 187 miles—119.5 hours in advance
40.0N 69.0W; Actual: 40.0N 64.5W; Error: 238 miles—124.0 hours in advance
• Made: October 21, 2005 10:00 pm
22.5N 87.0W; Actual: 22.5N 86.0W; Error: 64 miles—35.0 hours in advance
25.0N 83.5W; Actual: 25.0N 82.9W; Error: 38 miles—52.5 hours in advance
27.5N 80.0W; Actual: 27.5N 79.1W; Error: 55 miles—63.5 hours in advance
30.0N 77.0W; Actual: 30.0N 76.2W; Error: 48 miles—69.5 hours in advance
32.5N 74.5W; Actual: 32.5N 73.1W; Error: 82 miles—74.5 hours in advance
35.0N 72.5W; Actual: 35.0N 69.8W; Error: 153 miles—79.5 hours in advance
37.5N 70.5W; Actual: 37.5N 67.1W; Error: 187 miles—83.5 hours in advance
40.0N 69.0W; Actual: 40.0N 64.5W; Error: 238 miles—88.0 hours in advance
42.5N 67.5W; Actual: 42.5N 60.5W; Error: 357 miles—94.0 hours in advance
45.0N 68.0W; No Verification
• Made: October 22, 2005 11:00 pm
22.5N 86.5W; Actual: 22.5N 86.0W; Error: 32 miles—10.0 hours in advance
25.0N 83.5W; Actual: 25.0N 82.9W; Error: 38 miles—27.5 hours in advance
27.5N 80.0W; Actual: 27.5N 79.1W; Error: 55 miles—38.5 hours in advance
30.0N 77.0W; Actual: 30.0N 76.2W; Error: 48 miles—44.5 hours in advance
32.5N 74.5W; Actual: 32.5N 73.1W; Error: 82 miles—49.5 hours in advance
35.0N 72.5W; Actual: 35.0N 69.8W; Error: 153 miles—54.5 hours in advance
37.5N 70.5W; Actual: 37.5N 67.1W; Error: 187 miles—58.5 hours in advance
40.0N 69.0W; Actual: 40.0N 64.5W; Error: 238 miles—63.0 hours in advance
42.5N 67.5W; Actual: 42.5N 60.5W; Error: 357 miles—69.0 hours in advance
45.0N 68.0W; No Verification
• Made: October 23, 2005 11:30 am
25.0N 83.0W; Actual: 25.0N 82.9W; Error: 6 miles—15.0 hours in advance
27.5N 80.0W; Actual: 27.5N 79.1W; Error: 55 miles—26.0 hours in advance
30.0N 77.0W; Actual: 30.0N 76.2W; Error: 48 miles—32.0 hours in advance
32.5N 74.5W; Actual: 32.5N 73.1W; Error: 82 miles—37.0 hours in advance
35.0N 72.5W; Actual: 35.0N 69.8W; Error: 153 miles—42.0 hours in advance
37.5N 70.5W; Actual: 37.5N 67.1W; Error: 187 miles—46.0 hours in advance
40.0N 69.0W; Actual: 40.0N 64.5W; Error: 238 miles—50.5 hours in advance
42.5N 67.5W; Actual: 42.5N 60.5W; Error: 357 miles—56.5 hours in advance
45.0N 68.0W; No Verification
• Made: October 23, 2005 8:30 pm
25.0N 83.0W; Actual: 25.0N 82.9W; Error: 6 miles—6.0 hours in advance
27.5N 80.0W; Actual: 27.5N 79.1W; Error: 55 miles—17.0 hours in advance
30.0N 77.0W; Actual: 30.0N 76.2W; Error: 48 miles—23.0 hours in advance
32.5N 74.0W; Actual: 32.5N 73.1W; Error: 53 miles—28.0 hours in advance
35.0N 71.5W; Actual: 35.0N 69.8W; Error: 96 miles—33.0 hours in advance
37.5N 69.5W; Actual: 37.5N 67.1W; Error: 132 miles—37.0 hours in advance
40.0N 68.0W; Actual: 40.0N 64.5W; Error: 185 miles—41.5 hours in advance
42.5N 66.5W; Actual: 42.5N 60.5W; Error: 204 miles—47.5 hours in advance
45.0N 65.0W; No Verification
• Made: October 24, 2005 1:30 pm
30.0N 76.0W; Actual: 30.0N 76.2W; Error: 12 miles—6.0 hours in advance
32.5N 73.0W; Actual: 32.5N 73.1W; Error: 6 miles—11.0 hours in advance
35.0N 70.5W; Actual: 35.0N 69.8W; Error: 40 miles—16.0 hours in advance
37.5N 69.0W; Actual: 37.5N 67.1W; Error: 104 miles—20.0 hours in advance
40.0N 67.0W; Actual: 40.0N 64.5W; Error: 132 miles—24.5 hours in advance
42.5N 64.5W; Actual: 42.5N 60.5W; Error: 204 miles—30.5 hours in advance
45.0N 62.0W; No Verification
• Made: October 25, 2005 11:00 am
40.0N 64.0W; Actual: 40.0N 64.5W; Error: 26 miles—3.0 hours in advance
42.5N 60.0W; Actual: 42.5N 60.5W; Error: 25 miles—9.0 hours in advance
45.0N 54.5W; No Verification
NOTE: No verification was possible for 45.0N. The Canadian Hurricane Centre ceased tracking extratropical Wilma at 43.3N 57.4N at 10/25 11 pm. The National Hurricane Center issued its final statement at 10/25 5 pm. Needless to say, for all estimates other than the October 25, 2005 11:00 am estimate, the error for 45.0N would have been substantial.
Estimated Strength:
• Made October 16, 2005 11:00 pm
Maximum Strength: 115 mph-125 mph; Actual: 175 mph; Error: 50 mph-60 mph
Florida Landfall: 110 mph; Actual: 125 mph; Error: 15 mph—175.5 hours in advance
• Made: October 17, 2005 8:00 pm
Maximum Strength: 135 mph; Actual: 175 mph; Error: 40 mph
• Made: October 19, 2005 11:00 am
Florida Landfall: 115 mph; Actual: 125 mph; Error: 10 mph—115.5 hours in advance
• Made: October 20, 2005 10:00 am
Mexican Landfall: 135 mph; Actual: 140 mph; Error: 5 mph—31.0 hours in advance
Landfall Estimates:
• Made: October 18, 2005 11:00 am
Approximately: 26.268N 81.8262W; Actual: 25.9085N 81.7192W; Error: 26 miles—139.5 hours in advance
• Made: October 20, 2005 10:00 am
Approximately: 26.094N 81.7997W; Actual: 25.9085N 81.7192W; Error: 14 miles—92.5 hours in advance
• Made: October 21, 2005 10:00 pm
Approximately: 26.203N 81.8158W; Actual: 25.9085N 81.7192W; Error: 21 miles—56.5 hours in advance
• Made: October 23, 2005 11:00 am
Approximately: 26.026N 81.7688W; Actual: 25.9085N 81.7192W; Error: 9 miles—19.5 hours in advance
Hurricane Wilma was the 21st named storm on record for the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. It was also the 4th major hurricane to make U.S. landfall. This broke the record for major hurricanes making landfall in a single season. The old record was 3 set in 1893, 1909, 1933, 1954 and 2004.
The Florida landfall position was estimated within 26 miles more than 5 1/2 days in advance.
Some Notes on the Use of Historical Analysis & Relative Shear:
As has been often stated by the National Hurricane Center, intensity forecasting is still quite difficult. Hence, in this area, I take into consideration historical information and believe it does provide some useful guidance. It did so with regard to Irene’s regeneration into a hurricane earlier this year and worked very well with Wilma.
In terms of Wilma’s intensity at Florida landfall, the idea of a strong hurricane had showed up in an examination of historic hurricanes that developed in a similar location to Wilma. Thus, even when Wilma was TD 24, it appeared likely that southwest Florida would eventually face a formidable hurricane from this storm.
As Wilma approached Yucatan landfall, one of the big issues that arose concerned whether Wilma would be effectively destroyed as occurred with Hurricane Isidore (2002). An examination of landfalling Yucatan hurricanes revealed that the Isidore scenario was not the most likely.
From October 20:
Since 1851, there were 11 hurricanes that met the following criteria:
∙ Passed within 100 nautical miles of Wilma’s 8 pm position of 19.1N 85.9W in October
∙ Did not dissipate on their approach to the Yucatan Peninsula
∙ Had a trajectory that was north of west
4 (36%) crossed the Yucatan Peninsula. Unlike Isidore (2002), none were essentially “destroyed” by their passage across the Yucatan. One such hurricane was Hurricane #13 (1916). Typically following their passage across the Yucatan Peninsula, such storms recovered and increased their maximum sustained winds by approximately 20 knots…
In my view, given the guidance, Wilma should brush the Yucatan—making landfall there—but do so at a northwest heading. Once it moves back out over the Gulf of Mexico, I expect some recovery in its strength. I do not believe it will be decimated for two big reasons:
∙ It will avoid most of the relatively cooler water that lies to the direct north of the Yucatan Peninsula.
∙ It will likely continue to move off to the northwest. Hurricane Isidore (2002) actually passed to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula and then dove to the south making a loop over the Yucatan Peninsula and spent roughly 40 hours over the Yucatan Peninsula.
On October 21, I added:
… a recovery of about 20 knots has typically been the case with such storms that crossed the Yucatan and then headed off toward Florida. Earlier in the season, I likely would have expected a greater recovery given the SSTs. Given a gradual increase in shear, I'll look for a typical recovery. So overall, barring a seriously degraded core, I'll leave things as they currently stand with regard to Wilma's strength at Florida landfall.
On October 22, I stated:
In my view, this development is not unexpected. Wilma did not enter the Yucatan Peninsula from the north after having passed over a "cool shadow" in the SSTs as happened with Isidore (2002).
∙ Tropical cyclones departing the Yucatan Peninsula and heading for Florida have typically regained approximately 20 knots in their intensity from their low point following passage across the Yucatan. So, I would not be surprised if Wilma has a post-Yucatan peak intensity of around 120 mph - 125 mph. Some weakening could occur just before landfall.
To be sure, Wilma’s re-intensification started late. It truly didn’t commence until it had moved over a large tongue of 29°C-30°C waters. It continued afterward. As a hypothesis from historic observations for which SST data has been available, it appears that there are tropical cyclones that, once they move over open water, have a lagged redevelopment. When they move over a patch of very warm water, the intensification process begins and then sustains itself so long as the environment doesn’t grow too hostile. Hence, when Wilma later moved over slightly cooler waters (27°C-28°C), her intensification continued.
Furthermore, her structure continued to improve even as she moved across the Florida Peninsula. Although her top winds dropped to 105 mph by the time she exited, as her dynamics continued to improve, her winds quickly reached 115 mph upon moving back over the Atlantic Ocean. Later they reached 125 mph at 30.2N 76.0W.
With regard to shear, it should also be noted that a storm cutting against the shear will face a much higher relative shear (up to shear + forward motion). One going with the shear will face a lower relative shear (up to shear – some forward motion). Therefore, while I had expected some weakening just prior to landfall on the basis of conservatism, such weakening was not certain.
Given the combination of historic information in assessing Wilma’s recovery prospects and my understanding of the shear environment that would later confront Wilma prior to Florida landfall, it was possible for me to estimate that Wilma would make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph maximum sustained winds more than 100 hours in advance and not waver from that idea. The conservatism of assuming some weakening from the shear largely contributed to my understating the Florida landfall winds, as I had expected Wilma to peak at between 120 mph and 125 mph after its passage across a portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Track Estimates:
• Made: October 18, 2005 11:00 am
17.5N 81.8W; Actual: 17.5N 83.5W; Error: 112 miles—27.0 hours in advance
20.0N 85.2W; Actual: 20.0N 86.2W; Error: 65 miles—66.0 hours in advance
22.5N 85.5W; Actual: 22.5N 86.0W; Error: 32 miles—118.0 hours in advance
25.0N 83.5W; Actual: 25.0N 82.9W; Error: 38 miles—135.5 hours in advance
27.5N 80.2W; Actual: 27.5N 79.1W; Error: 67 miles—146.5 hours in advance
• Made: October 18, 2005 8:00 pm
17.5N 83.0W; Actual: 17.5N 83.5W; Error: 33 miles—18.0 hours in advance
20.0N 85.5W; Actual: 20.0N 86.2W; Error: 45 miles—57.0 hours in advance
22.5N 85.5W; Actual: 22.5N 86.0W; Error: 32 miles—109.0 hours in advance
25.0N 83.5W; Actual: 25.0N 82.9W; Error: 38 miles—126.5 hours in advance
27.5N 80.2W; Actual: 27.5N 79.1W; Error: 67 miles—137.5 hours in advance
• Made: October 19, 2005 11:30 am
17.5N 83.3W; Actual: 17.5N 83.5W; Error: 13 miles—2.5 hours in advance
20.0N 85.9W; Actual: 20.0N 86.2W; Error: 19 miles—41.5 hours in advance
22.5N 85.6W; Actual: 22.5N 86.0W; Error: 26 miles—93.5 hours in advance
25.0N 83.5W; Actual: 25.0N 82.9W; Error: 38 miles—111.0 hours in advance
27.5N 80.2W; Actual: 27.5N 79.1W; Error: 67 miles—122.0 hours in advance
30.0N 77.5W; Actual: 30.0N 76.2W; Error: 78 miles—128.0 hours in advance
32.5N 75.0W; Actual: 32.5N 73.1W; Error: 111 miles—133.0 hours in advance
35.0N 73.0W; Actual: 35.0N 69.8W; Error: 181 miles—138.0 hours in advance
37.5N 71.0W; Actual: 37.5N 67.1W; Error: 214 miles—142.0 hours in advance
40.0N 69.0W; Actual: 40.0N 64.5W; Error: 238 miles—146.5 hours in advance
• Made: October 20, 2005 10:00 am
20.0N 86.4W; Actual: 20.0N 86.2W; Error: 13 miles—19.0 hours in advance
22.5N 85.8W; Actual: 22.5N 86.0W; Error: 13 miles—71.0 hours in advance
25.0N 83.2W; Actual: 25.0N 82.9W; Error: 19 miles—88.5 hours in advance
27.5N 80.0W; Actual: 27.5N 79.1W; Error: 55 miles—99.5 hours in advance
30.0N 77.0W; Actual: 30.0N 76.2W; Error: 48 miles—105.5 hours in advance
32.5N 74.5W; Actual: 32.5N 73.1W; Error: 82 miles—110.5 hours in advance
35.0N 72.5W; Actual: 35.0N 69.8W; Error: 153 miles—115.5 hours in advance
37.5N 70.5W; Actual: 37.5N 67.1W; Error: 187 miles—119.5 hours in advance
40.0N 69.0W; Actual: 40.0N 64.5W; Error: 238 miles—124.0 hours in advance
• Made: October 21, 2005 10:00 pm
22.5N 87.0W; Actual: 22.5N 86.0W; Error: 64 miles—35.0 hours in advance
25.0N 83.5W; Actual: 25.0N 82.9W; Error: 38 miles—52.5 hours in advance
27.5N 80.0W; Actual: 27.5N 79.1W; Error: 55 miles—63.5 hours in advance
30.0N 77.0W; Actual: 30.0N 76.2W; Error: 48 miles—69.5 hours in advance
32.5N 74.5W; Actual: 32.5N 73.1W; Error: 82 miles—74.5 hours in advance
35.0N 72.5W; Actual: 35.0N 69.8W; Error: 153 miles—79.5 hours in advance
37.5N 70.5W; Actual: 37.5N 67.1W; Error: 187 miles—83.5 hours in advance
40.0N 69.0W; Actual: 40.0N 64.5W; Error: 238 miles—88.0 hours in advance
42.5N 67.5W; Actual: 42.5N 60.5W; Error: 357 miles—94.0 hours in advance
45.0N 68.0W; No Verification
• Made: October 22, 2005 11:00 pm
22.5N 86.5W; Actual: 22.5N 86.0W; Error: 32 miles—10.0 hours in advance
25.0N 83.5W; Actual: 25.0N 82.9W; Error: 38 miles—27.5 hours in advance
27.5N 80.0W; Actual: 27.5N 79.1W; Error: 55 miles—38.5 hours in advance
30.0N 77.0W; Actual: 30.0N 76.2W; Error: 48 miles—44.5 hours in advance
32.5N 74.5W; Actual: 32.5N 73.1W; Error: 82 miles—49.5 hours in advance
35.0N 72.5W; Actual: 35.0N 69.8W; Error: 153 miles—54.5 hours in advance
37.5N 70.5W; Actual: 37.5N 67.1W; Error: 187 miles—58.5 hours in advance
40.0N 69.0W; Actual: 40.0N 64.5W; Error: 238 miles—63.0 hours in advance
42.5N 67.5W; Actual: 42.5N 60.5W; Error: 357 miles—69.0 hours in advance
45.0N 68.0W; No Verification
• Made: October 23, 2005 11:30 am
25.0N 83.0W; Actual: 25.0N 82.9W; Error: 6 miles—15.0 hours in advance
27.5N 80.0W; Actual: 27.5N 79.1W; Error: 55 miles—26.0 hours in advance
30.0N 77.0W; Actual: 30.0N 76.2W; Error: 48 miles—32.0 hours in advance
32.5N 74.5W; Actual: 32.5N 73.1W; Error: 82 miles—37.0 hours in advance
35.0N 72.5W; Actual: 35.0N 69.8W; Error: 153 miles—42.0 hours in advance
37.5N 70.5W; Actual: 37.5N 67.1W; Error: 187 miles—46.0 hours in advance
40.0N 69.0W; Actual: 40.0N 64.5W; Error: 238 miles—50.5 hours in advance
42.5N 67.5W; Actual: 42.5N 60.5W; Error: 357 miles—56.5 hours in advance
45.0N 68.0W; No Verification
• Made: October 23, 2005 8:30 pm
25.0N 83.0W; Actual: 25.0N 82.9W; Error: 6 miles—6.0 hours in advance
27.5N 80.0W; Actual: 27.5N 79.1W; Error: 55 miles—17.0 hours in advance
30.0N 77.0W; Actual: 30.0N 76.2W; Error: 48 miles—23.0 hours in advance
32.5N 74.0W; Actual: 32.5N 73.1W; Error: 53 miles—28.0 hours in advance
35.0N 71.5W; Actual: 35.0N 69.8W; Error: 96 miles—33.0 hours in advance
37.5N 69.5W; Actual: 37.5N 67.1W; Error: 132 miles—37.0 hours in advance
40.0N 68.0W; Actual: 40.0N 64.5W; Error: 185 miles—41.5 hours in advance
42.5N 66.5W; Actual: 42.5N 60.5W; Error: 204 miles—47.5 hours in advance
45.0N 65.0W; No Verification
• Made: October 24, 2005 1:30 pm
30.0N 76.0W; Actual: 30.0N 76.2W; Error: 12 miles—6.0 hours in advance
32.5N 73.0W; Actual: 32.5N 73.1W; Error: 6 miles—11.0 hours in advance
35.0N 70.5W; Actual: 35.0N 69.8W; Error: 40 miles—16.0 hours in advance
37.5N 69.0W; Actual: 37.5N 67.1W; Error: 104 miles—20.0 hours in advance
40.0N 67.0W; Actual: 40.0N 64.5W; Error: 132 miles—24.5 hours in advance
42.5N 64.5W; Actual: 42.5N 60.5W; Error: 204 miles—30.5 hours in advance
45.0N 62.0W; No Verification
• Made: October 25, 2005 11:00 am
40.0N 64.0W; Actual: 40.0N 64.5W; Error: 26 miles—3.0 hours in advance
42.5N 60.0W; Actual: 42.5N 60.5W; Error: 25 miles—9.0 hours in advance
45.0N 54.5W; No Verification
NOTE: No verification was possible for 45.0N. The Canadian Hurricane Centre ceased tracking extratropical Wilma at 43.3N 57.4N at 10/25 11 pm. The National Hurricane Center issued its final statement at 10/25 5 pm. Needless to say, for all estimates other than the October 25, 2005 11:00 am estimate, the error for 45.0N would have been substantial.
Estimated Strength:
• Made October 16, 2005 11:00 pm
Maximum Strength: 115 mph-125 mph; Actual: 175 mph; Error: 50 mph-60 mph
Florida Landfall: 110 mph; Actual: 125 mph; Error: 15 mph—175.5 hours in advance
• Made: October 17, 2005 8:00 pm
Maximum Strength: 135 mph; Actual: 175 mph; Error: 40 mph
• Made: October 19, 2005 11:00 am
Florida Landfall: 115 mph; Actual: 125 mph; Error: 10 mph—115.5 hours in advance
• Made: October 20, 2005 10:00 am
Mexican Landfall: 135 mph; Actual: 140 mph; Error: 5 mph—31.0 hours in advance
Landfall Estimates:
• Made: October 18, 2005 11:00 am
Approximately: 26.268N 81.8262W; Actual: 25.9085N 81.7192W; Error: 26 miles—139.5 hours in advance
• Made: October 20, 2005 10:00 am
Approximately: 26.094N 81.7997W; Actual: 25.9085N 81.7192W; Error: 14 miles—92.5 hours in advance
• Made: October 21, 2005 10:00 pm
Approximately: 26.203N 81.8158W; Actual: 25.9085N 81.7192W; Error: 21 miles—56.5 hours in advance
• Made: October 23, 2005 11:00 am
Approximately: 26.026N 81.7688W; Actual: 25.9085N 81.7192W; Error: 9 miles—19.5 hours in advance
weather1man - October 26, 2005 11:29 AM (GMT)
great job Don!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hurricane - October 26, 2005 01:52 PM (GMT)
I read your intial prognostication, Don,,, and from the archives,,, you pegged Wilma with Historical Data... She followed a similar path to her dated sisters... Had the Front not been so strong, and faded, or entered with less vigor, Tampa would be working on restoring power today...
It is all a matter of timing.. I look forward to your future thoughts about Snow in Central Florida this year... and 2006 ofcourse...
It is all a matter of timing.. I look forward to your future thoughts about Snow in Central Florida this year... and 2006 ofcourse...
winter123 - October 26, 2005 08:45 PM (GMT)
"I look forward to your future thoughts about Snow in Central Florida this year... "
I have a thought- It's never gonna happen.
I have a thought- It's never gonna happen.