remain vigilant

I wil be watching it...That area doe's look kind of interesting.

Yes, I just heard that on the weather channel! Looks promising!

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/trop_lant4col.gif

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261516
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST NORTH OF WESTERN PANAMA HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 140 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. IF
THIS DEVELOPING TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED AT
ANY TIME. HOWEVER...EVEN IF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DOES NOT
OCCUR...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS AND SQUALLS TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.



And look out for gamma possibly within the next week:

SQUALLY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE ARE NO SIGNS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. :silly:

26/1745 UTC 10.1N 81.3W T1.5/1.5 90

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX (AL262005) ON 20051027 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051027 0000 051027 1200 051028 0000 051028 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 81.6W 11.9N 82.7W 12.6N 83.7W 13.3N 85.0W
BAMM 11.0N 81.6W 11.8N 82.6W 12.4N 83.6W 12.9N 84.6W
A98E 11.0N 81.6W 11.4N 82.7W 11.8N 84.0W 12.4N 85.4W
LBAR 11.0N 81.6W 12.1N 82.5W 13.5N 83.3W 15.5N 84.3W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 54KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051029 0000 051030 0000 051031 0000 051101 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.9N 86.3W 14.0N 89.2W 13.7N 93.2W 13.6N 97.6W
BAMM 13.2N 85.9W 12.8N 89.1W 11.8N 93.8W 11.3N 98.7W
A98E 12.9N 87.3W 14.7N 91.0W 15.6N 95.0W 16.4N 98.2W
LBAR 17.6N 84.9W 21.7N 84.1W 25.7N 79.9W 30.8N 70.6W
SHIP 59KTS 60KTS 50KTS 41KTS
DSHP 29KTS 29KTS 19KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 81.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 79.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

000
WTNT31 KNHC 270240
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS FOR CENTRAL AMERICA...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM
THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR
THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS OF
SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA ON THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 155 KM...SOUTH OF SAN
ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 170 MILES... 270 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR.
A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER NICARAGUA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...11.1 N... 81.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

000
WTNT41 KNHC 270245
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND COULD BE
ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 N MI FROM THE GIVEN POSITION. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED AT 315/03.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE TRAPPED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH AND ONLY A SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION TOWARD THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA IS ANTICIPATED. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE
WILL NEVER GET OUT THAT AREA BEFORE DISSIPATION INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. THIS IS VERY REALISTIC SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE SLOW MOTION
OVER WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRENGTHENING
AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL
WHICH MAKES THE DEPRESSION A 94-KNOT HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. WE WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL IN
CONTACTING THE COLOMBIAN WEATHER SERVICE TO COORDINATE THE
WARNINGS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 11.1N 81.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 11.5N 82.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 12.5N 82.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 13.0N 83.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 13.0N 84.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 30/0000Z 13.0N 85.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

11 P.M. EDT 10/26/2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26 UPDATE #1

This is an independent product

Tropical Depression 26 forms east of Costa Rica and Nicaragua and is expected to bring flooding rainfall to the region. Residents should closely monitor the progress of this developing system

NWHHC may recommend a Hurricane Watch or a Tropical Storm Warning for part of Costa Rica and Nicaragua tomorrow morning. As always, any official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the center of Tropical Depression 26 is located near 11.1N and 81.5W. This places the center about 170 miles ESE of Bluefields, Nicaragua. The motion is to the NW near 3 m.p.h. This general track, at a very slow speed, is expected during the next couple of days, bringing the system into southern Nicaragua late Friday or early Saturday.

Maximum winds are near 35 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 1007mb. This system is expected to become a tropical storm tomorrow and could be at hurricane intensity at the time of landfall.

Next Update: 6 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

000
WTNT31 KNHC 270555
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST
OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO
GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER... AND ADJACENT
ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR
ABOUT 85 MILES... 140 KM... SOUTH OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
150 MILES... 245 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH... 6 KM/HR.
A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA... COSTA RICA... AND NICARAGUA... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...11.3 N... 81.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

000
WTNT41 KNHC 270900
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

AS OFTEN OCCURS AS A DEPRESSION EVOLVES INTO A TROPICAL STORM... THE
OUTER BANDS FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE DISSIPATED WHILE BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAVE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNANIMOUSLY 35 KT...AND THEY ARE
ONLY THAT LOW DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
APPEARS TO CORRESPOND TO AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM...BUT THE WINDS
HAVE PROBABLY NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CLOUD SIGNATURE. THE
DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS...
MAKING BETA THE RECORD-SETTING 23RD TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005
SEASON.

THE SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 5 KT IS BEING PROVIDED BY
WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW... IN BETWEEN A LARGE AND DEEP LAYER
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED A DISTANT 2000 N MI TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST ENOUGH RIDGING TO
DEVELOP IN PLACE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF TO
EVENTUALLY TURN BETA WESTWARD INTO NICARAGUA...BUT THERE IS
SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL OCCUR. OVERALL THE
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND NONE
OF THEM BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS KEPT ALONG THE SAME PATH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT SLOWED DOWN TO NUDGE TOWARD THE GUIDANCE.

OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING... WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 29 CELSIUS
AND VERY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETA COULD BE
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS IF IT HAS NOT YET MADE
LANDFALL... AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX BASED ON SHIPS
INDICATES NEARLY A 50/50 SHOT AT 25 KT OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE
FIRST 24 HOURS. THE GFDL FORECASTS EVEN MORE INTENSIFICATION...TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 HOURS. SINCE THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST KEEPS BETA OVER WATER LONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND GIVEN THE VERY BULLISH GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND ANTICIPATES A HURRICANE
BY THE TIME OF LANDFALL ON THE NICARAGUAN COAST. FURTHER... SINCE
THE 36 HOUR FORECAST IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... IT IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITHIN 36 HOURS IN
THE AREAS ALREADY UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. HOWEVER...WE HAVE
NOT YET BEEN ABLE TO CONTACT NICARAGUA REGARDING THE ISSUANCE OF A
HURRICANE WATCH IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 11.4N 81.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 11.8N 82.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 12.5N 82.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 12.8N 83.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 13.0N 83.6W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 30/0600Z 13.0N 85.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTNT31 KNHC 270855
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...RECORD 23RD TROPICAL STORM OF SEASON FORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALREADY IN
EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST
OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO
GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT
ISLANDS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES... 125 KM... SOUTH OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 140
MILES... 230 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA... COSTA RICA... AND NICARAGUA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...11.4 N... 81.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

Tropical storm Beta
Forecast one
10-27=2005


Tropical depression 26 becomes Beta....


7:42UTC quickscats show a area of 40 to 45 knot winds. Sab t numbers at 6z this morning has it at 2.5/2.5=35 knots. Satellite shows that Beta is quickly organizing this morning. In has formed a well defined LLC right in the center of the central dense overcast. Strong inflow has developed over the southeastern quad...With banding futures over the eastern or northeastern parts of the cyclone. Beta is currently a very small system...In which the Gfdl has shown for the last few days.

Satellite shows a slow movement to the northwest or west-northwest...

Strength thinking
A upper level Anticyclone has formed over the cyclone...With 4 to 6 knots of shear...In which shows a begaining of a northern/southern outflow jet...While on the other hand...The TCHP levels to the northwest north of 18 are cooled from upwelling from hurricane Wilma. In the level is normally lower any way close to south America...It has on a scale 140 being whats your seeing right now south of Jamica....Which would support a very powreful hurricane like Wilma. This area holds about a 45 to 50 TCHP scale/FUEL. The Depth of the 26c temperature is 50 to 75 meters under the cyclone. But as it moves to the coast north of 12 north(Central America) The Depth drops to about 25 meters. In which if this system is moving slow about the same that happen to sotrms like Katrina/Rita could happen to BETA. Thats if it becomes a powerful hurricane. THe Potential MInimum central Pressure where it is can support a Wilma like storm...But the TCHP says no...In which the TCHP charts is much more likely...

The Gfdl(00z) makes it a 70 knot hurricane by 18 hours...In then tops it out as a cat3 or 100 knots by 54 hours. Then it makes landfall near 66 hours...The ship only ups it to 51 knots by 24 hours. With a max near 36 hours...Because the Lbar or the back droped model brings the center inland.

Forecast thinking is for it to get up to 45 knots by 12 hours...Fellowed by 55 knots by 24 hours. The Track is slightly slower then the nhc...Which is calling for a 48 hour landfall as a hurricane. My thinking is more at around 54 to 60 hours...In this storm could be up to around 75 knots. In which is near 85 mph or near the line TCHP can handle a very slow moving cyclone....

Movement forecast
The models show a strong high pressure area forming over the northern Gulf coast...In which should induce a west-northwest or northwest movement of the tropical cyclone. The Gfs shows a track close to the 00z Gfdl into central America around 54 to 66 hours. The wild card is the CMC which the trough to its east pulls the cyclone to the northeastward. In which is looking less likely since the system is moving away from the trough. The NOGAPS moves the system to the northwest through out the next 72 hours. Then shifts westward. By far it holds the cyclone out over 108 hours. But the high should be strong enough to pull the cyclone inland before that...In which no more then 13 to 14 north...Should be expected. The Gfdl has been almost holding to its track for the last 24 hours...In which has proven its self time in time again as one of the best models. The Bamm/Bamd is callling for a more northwest track. Which makes landfall into central America around 13 north. The UKmet/LBAR shows a northwest or northward movement back into the Caribbean. Thats was discused above about the trough.

The forecast calls for a landfall south of 12.5...In is putting weight into the GFS,Gfdl,Bamm,Bamd mix. Landfall is expected around 54 hours.

Forecast
0 40 mph
12 50 mph
24 65 mph
36 75 mph
48 85 mph
60 65 mph inland


Forecaster Matthew

000
WTNT41 KNHC 271447
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BETA AS A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED
TROPICAL STORM. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
WITH SOME OUTER BANDING IN BOTH THE EAST AND WEST QUADRANTS...WITH
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATING CLOUD TOPS TO -80C. A RECENT SSM/I
OVERPASS SHOWS AN SMALL EYEWALL FORMING UNDER THE CDO. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE CENTER OF BETA IS SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 350/2.
BETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED
BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGESTS THAT AFTER A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH IN THE NEXT 24-36 HR...THE
TROUGH SHOULD LIFT A LITTLE NORTHWARD AND ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO
BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD
CAUSE BETA TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 24-36 HR...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD MOTION. ALL THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS EXCEPT THE CANADIAN...WHICH HAS HAD A NORTHWARD BIAS IN
SIMILAR SITUATIONS...FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. THE FORECAST TRACK NOW CALLS FOR
LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA IN 72 TO 96 HR.

WITH THE SMALL EYEWALL AND GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...
BETA APPEARS SET UP FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. INDEED...THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 56
PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT OR GREATER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT INCREASE QUITE THAT
MUCH...BUT DOES SHOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 72
HR SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE GFDL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAY NEED TO
BE REVISED SIGNIFICANTLY UPWARD IN THE NEXT ADVISORY IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE. ONE POSSIBLE RESTRAINING FACTOR IS THAT THE WARM
WATER OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THE
SLOW MOTION OF BETA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME UPWELLING OF COLD
WATER. HOWEVER...THE EFFECTS OF THIS MAY NOT BE FELT FOR 24 HR OR
MORE.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 11.5N 81.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 11.9N 81.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 12.4N 81.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 12.9N 81.7W 75 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 13.3N 82.1W 80 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 13.5N 83.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 13.5N 84.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/1200Z 13.0N 86.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

534
WTNT31 KNHC 271138
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...BETA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST
OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO
GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT
ISLANDS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES... 115 KM... SOUTH OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 135
MILES... 220 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH... 6
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA... COSTA RICA... AND NICARAGUA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...11.5 N... 81.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...TROPICAL STORM BETA STRENGTHENING AND RE-LOCATED EASTWARD...NEW
WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS
A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST OR ABOUT
75 MILES... 120 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
175 MILES... 280 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE
CENTER OF BETA NEAR SAN ANDRES ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...11.5 N... 81.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...TROPICAL STORM BETA STRENGTHENING AND RE-LOCATED EASTWARD...NEW
WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMIAN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES... 115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
160 MILES... 260 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE
CENTER OF BETA NEAR SAN ANDRES ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...11.6 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

1830 UTC 10/27/2005 TROPICAL STORM BETA SPECIAL FORECAST #3

This is an independent product

Beta has been becoming much more organized this afternoon. Satellite estimates indicate that the initial intensity is 50 KT. Convection has been firing and concentrating near the center and persisisting this afternoon. The reason for this special forecast is to note this intensification and to increase the intensity forecast. Due to the favorable atomospheric and oceanic conditions and the impressive organization we now expect Beta to become huricane in the next 12 hours and a major hurricane before landfall.

The track reasoning has been unchanged and this track forecast is an extension of the previous one.

Initial: 11.6N 81.4W 50KT
12 Hour: 11.9N 81.6W 65KT
24 Hour: 12.4N 81.8W 80KT
36 Hour: 12.6N 82.4W 90KT
48 Hour: 12.7N 83.3W 100KT
72 Hour: 12.8N 85.2W 30KT (inland)

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...BETA DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT
60 MILES... 95 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
165 MILES... 265 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A SLOW
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR SAN
ANDRES LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS COSTA RICA...NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...
SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...11.7 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT41 KNHC 272040
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

BETA REMAINS A SMALL AND WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
PATTERN SEEN THIS MORNING HAS BECOME MORE OF A CURVED BAND
PATTERN...WITH INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWING TOPS OF -75C TO -80C. AN
AMSU OVERPASS AT 1547Z SHOWED A BANDING EYE UNDERNEATH THE
CONVECTIVE TOPS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM
TAFB...45 KT FROM SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/3. BETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AFTER A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH IN
THE NEXT 24-36 HR...THE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT A LITTLE NORTHWARD AND
ALLOW A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE BETA TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD
MOTION. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...
WITH THE GFS AND GFDL CALLING FOR A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TURN...AND THE UKMET AND NOGAPS CALLING FOR A MORE GRADUAL WESTWARD
TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE MODELS AND IS JUST
EAST AND NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TWO
MODELS WHICH BRING BETA NORTHWARD TOWARD CUBA AND FLORIDA...LBAR
AND THE CANADIAN...HAVE SHOWN A NORTHWARD BIAS IN PREVIOUS SIMILAR
SITUATIONS. THEREFORE...WHILE NOT BEING RULED OUT AS POSSIBILITIES
THEY ARE BEING GIVEN LITTLE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME.

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...
WITH THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWING A 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT OR GREATER STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
THIS...MAKING BETA A HURRICANE IN JUST OVER 12 HR AND A 75 KT
SYSTEM IN 24 HR. ONE POSSIBLE RESTRAINING FACTOR IS THAT THE WARM
WATER OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THE
SLOW MOTION OF BETA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME UPWELLING OF COLD
WATER. HOWEVER...THE EFFECTS OF THIS MAY NOT BE FELT FOR 24 HR OR
MORE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOWER DEVELOPMENT
RATE AFTER 24 HR BASED ON THIS POSSIBILITY...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT
BE ANY SURPRISE IF BETA GOT STRONGER AND BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE.
AFTER LANDFALL...BETA SHOULD WEAKEN..ESPECIALLY WHEN IT REACHES THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

MOST OF THE RAINFALL CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BETA IS OFFSHORE.
ONCE THE STORM COMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO BRING THE RAINS
ONSHORE...FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL BECOME SERIOUS THREATS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 11.7N 81.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 12.1N 81.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 12.6N 81.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 13.0N 82.0W 85 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 13.3N 82.5W 90 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 13.5N 83.5W 95 KT...NEAR COAST
96HR VT 31/1800Z 13.5N 85.0W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/1800Z 13.0N 87.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING

000
WTNT31 KNHC 272341
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...BETA CREEPING NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES...85 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
160 MILES... 255 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A SLOW NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR SAN ANDRES LATE
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM
FROM THE CENTER MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS COSTA RICA...NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...
SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...11.9 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...BETA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD...BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN
WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA EARLY FRIDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES...55 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 160
MILES...260 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH ... 4 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN
TO NORTHWEST AND WEST THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BETA WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE ON
FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS COSTA RICA...NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...
SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...12.1 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

BETA IS DEFINITELY NOT INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY TONIGHT. THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS ONLY A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS
ARE 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. SSM/I MICROWAVE DATA AT 2344Z CONTINUES
TO SHOW A HINT OF AN EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED MODESTLY TO 55 KNOTS. BETA IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL STORM
AND BASED ON SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM SAN ANDRES
PROVIDED BY THE COLOMBIAN WEATHER SERVICE...THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND RADII HAS BEEN REDUCED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
SURFACE WINDS AT SAN ANDRES NEAR 00Z WERE ONLY 11 KNOTS...AND THE
CENTER OF BETA IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 35 N MI FROM THAT LOCATION.
THESE WINDS WERE CONFIRMED BY THE OBSERVER ON THE ISLAND.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BETA TO
INTENSIFY STEADILY UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. IN FACT...THE
RELIABLE GFDL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO 100 KNOTS AT LANDFALL AND SHIPS
TO 90 KNOTS.

BETA HAS CONTINUED CREEPING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 2 KNOTS. DESPITE THE
CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION...THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT THAT
BETA WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN OR OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THIS HIGH HAS BEEN A VERY PERSISTENT FEATURE
AND HAS STEERED OTHER CYCLONES TOWARD FLORIDA THIS YEAR...BUT IN
THIS CASE IT WILL STEER THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL NOT SAVE NICARAGUA AND OTHER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE CYCLONE. THE HIGH SHOULD FORCE BETA
WESTWARD TOWARD THE NICARAGUAN EAST COAST AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
THE GFDL. ONLY THE CANADIAN MODEL BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD
TOWARD CUBA AND THE UK TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MOST LIKELY THESE
TWO MODELS WILL CHANGE THEIR TUNE IN THE NEXT RUN. WE SHALL SEE.

IF BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST VERIFY...BETA WILL LIKELY
BE A VERY SERIOUS HURRICANE PRIMARILY FOR NICARAGUA PRODUCING
CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE FROM BOTH WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS.

FORECASTER AVILA


ORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 12.1N 81.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 12.5N 81.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 13.0N 81.8W 75 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 13.5N 82.5W 85 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 13.5N 83.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 31/0000Z 13.5N 85.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/0000Z 13.5N 86.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 02/0000Z 13.5N 87.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

beta could be big

000
WTNT31 KNHC 280833
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

...TROPICAL STORM BETA GETTING CLOSER TO SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 60 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 175
MILES... 285 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... WITH A POSSIBLE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES
...AND PROVIDENCIA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...12.3 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

000
WTNT41 KNHC 280903
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAD BEEN ON THE WANE... BUT DURING THE PAST
HOUR OR SO BETA HAS BEEN MAKING A SLIGHT COMEBACK. A STRONG BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION... ALBEIT A SMALL AREA... HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND
TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C AND
COLDER. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z REVEALED A
PRONOUNCED BUT SMALL MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER... A 28/0110Z
SSMIS OVERPASS INDICATED THE EYE FEATURE HAD BEEN DISRUPTED BY SOME
EASTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW LAYER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65
KT FROM TAFB... T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB... AND T3.0/45 KT FROM AFWA. A
27/2300Z QUIKSCAT HI-RES OVERPASS ALSO SHOWED NO WIND VECTORS...
FLAGGED AND UNFLAGGED... HIGHER THAN 40 KT. HOWEVER... THE VERY
SMALL INNER CORE NOTED IN EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA WOULD LIKELY BE
UNDERSAMPLED BY QUIKSCAT. GIVEN THE DISRUPTION OF THE EYE FEATURE
...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT... WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN A STEADY 360/03 FOR THE PAST 14 HOURS...
AND THAT IS THE MOTION USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS LESS THAN STRAIGHTFORWARD. FIRST... A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 NMI NORTHEAST OF BETA HAS DEVELOPED SOME
IMPRESSIVE AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION... WHICH WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THAT SYSTEM AND RESULT IN SOME POSSIBLE BINARY
INTERACTION IN THE SHORT TERM THAT THE 28/00Z NAM ALLUDED TO.
SECOND... THERE IS A DISTINCT BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL SUITE. THE
GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...GFS ENSEMBLE... AND ECMWF MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ON A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK IMMEDIATELY FROM THE
CURRENT POSITION. IN CONTRAST... THE UKMET...CANADIAN...
CLIPER...LBAR...AND NHC98 MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA
AND TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FIRST GROUP APPEARS TO HAVE TO
MUCH RIDGE TO THE NORTH INITIALIZED... POSSIBLY DUE TO THE 00Z
HEIGHTS AT SAN ANDRES BEING TOO HIGH. THE 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASED
20 METERS BETWEEN 27/12Z AND 28/00Z...EVEN THOUGH BETA MOVED 30 NMI
CLOSER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUNA AND GUNS MODELS.

SSTS ARE VERY WARM AT 29C AND HIGHER... AND THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST STEADY STRENGTHENING. THE
ONLY SLIGHT INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE VERTICAL SHEAR... WHICH IS
FORECAST TO IN CREWASE TO 15 KT BY 24 HOURS... BEFORE DECREASING TO
LESS THAN 10 KT BY 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS
MODEL.

WIND RADII WERE DECREASED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT WINDS AND A
NORTHWEST 30-KT WIND REPORT AT 06Z FROM SHIP ZCAM4 LOCATED ABOUT
48 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 12.3N 81.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 12.8N 81.4W 65 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 13.4N 81.8W 75 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 13.8N 82.4W 85 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 14.1N 83.1W 90 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 14.5N 84.9W 35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
96HR VT 01/0600Z 14.7N 86.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 88.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

...TROPICAL STORM BETA GETTING CLOSER TO SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 60 KM... EAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 180 MILES...
290 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... WITH A POSSIBLE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...
75 KM FROM THE CENTER. A SHIP LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 58 MPH AT 5 AM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES
...AND PROVIDENCIA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...12.6 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$

000
WTNT41 KNHC 281452
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

BETA IS GENERATING STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TOPS TO -86C.
HOWEVER...OVERPASSES FROM AMSR-E AT 0705Z AND SSM/I AT 1148Z
SUGGEST THE STORM HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SHEARED...WITH THE CONVECTION
DISPLACED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THERE ARE HINTS OF
THIS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL. WHILE CIRRUS EAST OF BETA ARE
BLOWING TOWARD THE CENTER...ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN SHOW ONLY ABOUT 10 KT OF SHEAR...WHICH IF CORRECT DOES
NOT FULLY EXPLAIN THE APPARENT STRUCTURE. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM SAB...AND 45 KT FROM
AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
THESE AND A 50 KT REPORT AT 0900Z FROM SHIPS ZCAM4 JUST SOUTH OF
THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE BETA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/4. BETA IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. RAWINSONDE DATA AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST HEIGHTS TO RISE IN THESE AREAS AFTER THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC IN 12-24 HR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN IS BUILDING WESTWARD. THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD TURN BETA MORE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HR
AND MORE WESTWARD THEREAFTER. THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF
ALL CALL FOR A VERY SHARP TURN...WHILE THE UKMET AND CANADIAN CALL
FOR A MORE GRADUAL TURN. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A
LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND
MOTION...CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA IN 36-48
HR. THE NEW TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE UKMET BUT NORTH OF THE OVERALL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

IF BETA IS AS SHEARED AS THE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS...THEN THE
SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION COULD BE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THAT BEING SAID...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE SHEAR TO DECREASE
IN 12-18 HR...AND THE GFDL IS CALLING FOR BETA TO REACH 95 KT
BEFORE LANDFALL. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR BETA TO REACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT COULD DISSIPATE
FASTER THAN FORECAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

ONE OUTER RAINBAND IS CURRENTLY SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. AS BETA GETS CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN COAST...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS...FLOODS...AND MUDSLIDES
WILL INCREASE.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 12.9N 81.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 13.3N 81.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 13.9N 81.8W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 14.2N 82.6W 85 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 14.6N 83.6W 80 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/1200Z 15.0N 85.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/1200Z 15.0N 87.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
120HR VT 02/1200Z 15.5N 88.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

...BETA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TODAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM
LIMON EASTWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT
45 MILES... 70 KM...NORTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
185 MILES... 300 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR PROVIDENCIA LATER
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES
...AND PROVIDENCIA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...12.9 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT31 KNHC 281740
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

...BETA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND APPROACHING PROVIDENCIA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WARNINGS FOR SAN ANDRES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT
20 MILES... 30 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.
THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...NORTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES
ISLAND AND ABOUT 190 MILES... 305 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS
NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR PROVIDENCIA LATER
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN BETA SHORTLY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES
...AND PROVIDENCIA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...13.1 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$

URNT12 KNHC 281854
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/18:30:00Z
B. 13 deg 10 min N
081 deg 04 min W
C. 850 mb 1368 m
D. 40 kt
E. 66 deg 010 nm
F. 147 deg 047 kt
G. 063 deg 015 nm
H. 991 mb
I. 16 C/ 1527 m
J. 21 C/ 1523 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0126A BETA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 47 KT NE QUAD 18:25:10 Z
GOOD BANDING

000
WTNT41 KNHC 282055
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS JUST MEASURED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 990 MB AND REPORTED A PARTIAL 15 N MI WIDE EYE.
HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE 51 KT...WHICH
GENERALLY DOES NOT SUPPORT THE 55 KT INTENSITY SUGGESTED BY THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. IT MAY BE
THAT A TIGHTER INNER CORE EXISTED EARLIER AND WAS DISRUPTED BY THE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND IS JUST NOW COMING BACK TOGETHER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 360/4. WHILE THE CENTER FIXES DO NOT YET
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION...A NET
NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE CLOUD MASS MAY BE A PRECURSOR OF THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTWARD TURN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
U. S. AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST HEIGHTS TO RISE IN THESE AREAS AFTER THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC IN 12-18 HR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN IS SLOWLY BUILDING WESTWARD.
THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD TURN BETA MORE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HR AND MORE WESTWARD THEREAFTER. THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS
MODELS STILL CALL FOR A WESTWARD TURN...ALTHOUGH ALL THREE ARE
SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. THE UKMET STILL
CALLS FOR A MORE GRADUAL TURN...BUT STILL BRINGS BETA INLAND IN
NICARAGUA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH
FOR THE FIRST 48 HR...CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA IN 36-48 HR. THE NEW TRACK REMAINS SOUTH OF THE UKMET
AND JUST NORTH OF THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS.

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE 15 KT OF
EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER BETA. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THIS
WILL PERSIST FOR 12 HR OR SO...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
REDUCED SLIGHTLY DURING THAT TIME. AFTER THE SHEAR DECREASES...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING...
AND THE GFDL BRINGS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE INTO NICARAGUA.
THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR BETA TO REACH
85 KT BEFORE LANDFALL. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICAN MOUNTAINS...AND IT MAY BE THAT
HANGING ON TO IT FOR 120 HR MAY BE GENEROUS.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED DOWNWARD BASED ON SURFACE AND
AIRCRAFT DATA. BETA HAS BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO GROW IN SIZE THAN
ANTICIPATED...AND IT MAY BE THAT EVEN THE NEW FORECAST RADII ARE
TOO LARGE. WHILE THE WINDS MAY SPREAD ONSHORE LATER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST...THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BE SPREADING INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA STARTING TONIGHT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 13.3N 81.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 13.8N 81.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 14.3N 82.0W 70 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 14.6N 82.9W 85 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 14.8N 83.9W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/1800Z 15.0N 86.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/1800Z 15.0N 88.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
120HR VT 02/1800Z 16.0N 89.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

major flooding likely

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

...SUSTAINED 58 MPH WINDS IN THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA
FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST...NEAR OR
OVER THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 155 MILES...
250 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING BETWEEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7
KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS MOTION...THE CENTER OF BETA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
NEAR OR OVER THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM
FROM THE CENTER. REPORTS FROM PROVIDENCIA RELAYED BY THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF
58 MPH....93 KM/HR WERE JUST RECORDED ON THE ISLAND...AND NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF ROOF DAMAGE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ON PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES NEARBY. STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA... SAN ANDRES
...AND PROVIDENCIA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...13.4 N... 81.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT31 KNHC 290237
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

...BETA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...LASHING THE ISLAND OF
PROVIDENCIA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA
FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z..THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA
PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST JUST NORTH OF THE
ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. THIS IS ABOUT 155 MILES... 250 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER
AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 220 KM...EAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

BETA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH
... 7 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME SOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM
FROM THE CENTER. PROVIDENCIA HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING WINDS TO NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE FOR THE PAST HOUR OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
STILL POSSIBLE ON PROVIDENCIA WHILE THE CENTER OF BETA IS NEARBY.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALLS WITH
TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA
...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...13.6 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD
...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT41 KNHC 290238
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN IN DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA AND HAS BEEN RECEIVING WEATHER
DATA FROM SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. DATA FROM THE ISLAND OF
PROVIDENCIA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF BETA IS MOVING OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO THE ISLAND. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT 00Z WAS 995 MB AND
WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WERE 50 TO 55
KNOTS ONE HOUR EARLIER. A NEW REPORT JUST RECEIVED FROM THE ISLAND
INDICATES THAT THE WINDS ARE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH. BETA IS
GOING THROUGH ITS USUAL UP AND DOWN CYCLE IN THE CONVECTION AND NOW
IT IS ON THE UPWARD TREND WITH A VENGEANCE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT BETA IS
ABOUT TO BECOME A HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
BETWEEN NOW AND THE TIME OF LANDFALL OVER NICARAGUA OR EASTERN
HONDURAS. THIS TREND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND WITH THE GFDL
MODEL WHICH TENACIOUSLY MAKES BETA A 95 TO 100-KT HURRICANE.

BETA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 4 KNOTS.
IT SEEMS THAT THE LEFT TURN INDICATED BY THE PARADE OF MODELS LED
BY THE GFDL IS BEGINNING. IT WOULD BE FOOLISH NOT TO FOLLOW THESE
ADVANCED MODELS...AND RIGHTFULLY SO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN TURNING BETA WESTWARD. THE CURRENT STEERING PATTERN WOULD
SUGGEST A NORTHWARD TRACK BUT THE CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
NEW PATTERN WILL ULTIMATELY FORCE BETA TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD
CENTRAL AMERICA.

REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE
DAMAGE...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PLEASE BE
PREPARED FOR THIS EVENT.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 13.6N 81.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 14.0N 81.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 14.5N 82.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 14.5N 83.5W 85 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 14.5N 84.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 01/0000Z 14.5N 86.5W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 02/0000Z 14.5N 88.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 03/0000Z 15.0N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

000
WTNT31 KNHC 290554
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005

...SLOW-MOVING BETA REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...CONTINUES TO LASH THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA
FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS
FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON
EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST... OR JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 150 MILES... 240
KM... SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER AND ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM...EAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH ... 6 KM/HR.
A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES BETA A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM
FROM THE CENTER. PROVIDENCIA ISLAND HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING WINDS TO
NEAR HURRICANE FORCE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. REPORTS FROM THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA INDICATE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO
HOMES HAS OCCURRED ON THE ISLAND... AND ALL COMMUNICATIONS TO
PROVIDENCIA HAVE BEEN LOST.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
STILL POSSIBLE ON PROVIDENCIA WHILE THE CENTER OF BETA IS NEARBY.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALLS WITH
TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA
...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...13.6 N... 81.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD
...NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART