11/1452 UTC 17.5S 174.8W T2.5/2.5 11P -- South Pacific Ocean




Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 11/1951 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [990hPa] centre was located near 17.8 South
175.4 West at 111800 UTC. Position poor and based on MTSAT/EIR with
animation and peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 17.8S
175.4W at 111800 UTC. Cyclone moving southsouthwest at about 07 knots
and expected to curve southwest. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum
10-minute average winds estimated at 40 knots close to the centre
increasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds above
33 knots with 60 nautical miles of centre.

TC Vaianu's overall organisation continues to improve despite 10 to
20 knots shear aloft. CIMMS indicates that the cyclone is moving into
a decreasing shear zone and the increased equatorward outflow should
maintain a positive growth curve for the system. LLCC still difficult
to locate and placed near the southern edge of deep convection. The
system lies just south of 250-hPa outflow in a diffluent region. SST
in the area is about 29-30C.
Dvorak analysis based on .60 wrap on log10 spiral gives
DT=MET=PT=3.0, yielding T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24hrs. The system is steered
southwest by a mid-level ridge to east for the next 24 hours and is
expected to curve southeast beyond 48 hours in response to an
approaching broad upper trough from the west. Global models agree on
a southwest track with further intensification in the short term.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 120600 UTC near 18.9S 176.3W mov SSW at 07kt with 45
kt close to the centre.
24hrs valid at 121800 UTC near 19.6S 176.9W mov SW at 05kt with 55 kt
close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 130600 UTC near 20.3S 176.7W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt
close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 131800 UTC near 21.3S 176.3W mov SSE at 06kt with 60kt
close to the centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU
will be issued around 120200 UTC.




WTPS31 PGTW 112100
NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/111951ZFEB2006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 17.6S 175.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 175.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.4S 176.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.2S 176.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.2S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.3S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 175.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (VAIANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.




FXXT01 EGRR 111833

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR SOUTH PACIFIC AND

SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEANS


GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.02.2006

TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU ANALYSED POSITION : 18.5S 174.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 11.02.2006 18.5S 174.1W MODERATE

00UTC 12.02.2006 19.4S 174.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 12.02.2006 20.5S 175.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 13.02.2006 20.5S 176.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 13.02.2006 22.4S 174.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 14.02.2006 24.6S 174.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 14.02.2006 25.6S 173.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 15.02.2006 27.3S 172.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 15.02.2006 29.5S 170.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 16.02.2006 32.8S 169.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 16.02.2006 33.1S 169.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 17.02.2006 34.4S 168.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 17.02.2006 35.8S 168.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK


Sun Feb 12, 2006 1:12 am

Matthew
Tropical Weathers Founder


Joined: 31 Oct 2005
Posts: 454



Wow its bombing...3.5t=55 knots.


11/2022 UTC 18.1S 175.5W T3.5/3.5 VAIANU


Hopefully it will bomb into a very strong cyclone






The first Advisorie!!!

WTPS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110751ZFEB2006//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 17.1S 174.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 174.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 18.1S 175.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.0S 175.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 19.9S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.7S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 22.2S 174.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 174.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING POLEWARD
WHILE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CURVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HOURS AS THE STEERING RIDGE RE-ORIENTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE STORM. TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS AS IT ENTERS A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MAINTAINS FAVORABLE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, A REGION OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
POLEWARD OF TC 11P WILL LIMIT THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 110751Z FEB 06 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 110800). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z
AND 121500Z.

WTPS31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 18.3S 176.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 176.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.3S 176.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.4S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.2S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.9S 176.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 176.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (VAIANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. TC 11P INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AS CONVECTION
HAS CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
CYCLONE WILL TRACK POLEWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.//

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