The first tropical depression of the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season has formed off the southeast US coast. A tropical storm watch is in effect now for portions of the southeast United States coastline from Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina including the Pamlico Sound. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are posible within the next 36 hours.

At 5 PM EDT, The broad and poorly defined center of TD#1 was located near latitude 30.6 north, longitude 78.6 west or about 175 miles south southeast of Charleston, SC.

Movement is toward the northwest at near 9 mph. A gradual turn toward the north is anticipated over the next day or so. The forecast motion and track takes this depression towards the southeast United States coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gust, mainly in heavier squalls to the east of the center. Slow strengthening is anticipated over the next 24 hours and Tropical Depression #1 could become a tropical storm on Sunday. If this does occur, the first name of the season would be given, Alex.

Minimum central pressure was estimated to be 1010 mb or 29.83 inches.

Again the first TD of the season has formed about 175 miles south southeast of Charleston, SC. Stay tuned.

Jim

track followed by models-ensemble . The track is suggesting it will reach TS-status .

models-ensemble shows all models are almost in total agreement .

VERY POSSIBLE

Good Sunday morning. A very interesting morning as the latest recon fix shows the center repositioned further south closer to the convection. This representing potentially a reformation of the surface low pressure system. As a result, the potential is there for further strengthening with TD#1 before it makes it towards the Carolina coast later today.

As of 8 AM EDT, the center of TD#1 was located near latitude 32.5 north, longitude 79.2 west or about 45 miles east southeast of Charleston, SC. However near aircraft information suggest the center is further south than this over the northern edge of the big blob of convection

Movement is toward the north northwest at near 7 mph. A turn toward the north is expected over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts, mainly in squalls to the east of the center. With the reformation of the center closer to the convection, any reorganization could allow for some slow strengthening to the tropical storm potentially later today. A tropical storm watch remains in effect this morning from Edisto Beach, South Carolina up to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Minimum central pressure is 1009 mb or 29.80 inches.

Jim

A brand new tropical storm has formed about 80 miles south southeast of Charleston, SC. Movement is stationary. Maximum sustained winds right now are up to 40 mph with higher gusts. No changes have been made on the watches and warnings along the southeast US coast. Tropical storm warnings are in effect from Cape Fear, NC-Cape Hatteras, NC meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours or less. A tropical storm watch is in effect from Cape Fear, NC to Edisto Beach, SC meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours. The watches and warnings could be repositioned or changed slightly over the next several hours.

The big threat will be dangerous rip currents and periods of very heavy rain along the NC/SC coast. If you encounter a rip current, swim parallel to the beach until you get out of the rip current, then either call for help or swim toward shore. Never panic, that's the worse thing to do in a rip current. If not an experienced swimmer, best bet is just stay out of the water altogether.

More updates throughout the afternoon.

Jim

Thanks for keeping us updated Jim! I think as it takes off to the northeast or east-northeast. It will pull together very fast, because it will be going with the shear. This normally happens with these kind of systems

thanks

A tropical storm warning has been extended southward and now extends frin South Santee River, South Carolina northward to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina including Pamilco Sound. A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours or less. A tropical storm watch has been issued from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina northward to Oregon Inlet, North Carolina. A tropical storm watch remains in effect from South Santee River to Edisto Beach, South Carolina. A tropical storm watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 36 hours.

At 5 PM EDT, Tropical Storm Alex was centered near latitude 31.7 north, longitude 79.2 west or about 90 miles south southeast of Charleston, SC. Alex has remained stationary all day long. However a slow north northeast motion is expected over the next day or so. This takes the center of Alex near the Outer Banks of North Carolina by later Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Slow strengthening remains a possibility over the next day or so. Minimum central pressure is 1010 mb or 29.83 inches.

Jim

000
URNT12 KNHC 012331
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/2331Z
B. 31 DEG 27 MIN N
79 DEG 12 MIN W
C. NA
D. 50 KT
E. 133 DEG 026 NM
F. 207 DEG 45 KT
G. 132 DEG 027 NM
H. EXTRAP 1006 MB
I. 24 C/ 389 M
J. 25 C/ 370 M
K. 22 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/10
O. 0.1/ 15 NM
P. AF861 0501A ALEX OB 06
MAX FL WIND 45 KT SE QUAD 2322Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.

;


Estimated surface winds have increased to near 60 mph with higher gusts. Pressure has dropped from 1009 mb to 1006 mb. Looking at some of the models shows the ships increasing the intensity of this thing to 60 knots by 30-36 hours. With the warm gulf stream waters and potentially less vertical shear over this system over the next day or two, the potential to see winds sustained at over 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph or higher is a very real possibility with this particular storm system. Rip current threat is very high and folks shouldn't even venture out in the water. There is no need to even be outdoors if heavy rains, 50 mph winds with higher gusts strikes the Carolina coast as it could potentially do later tonight into Monday.

This will continued to be monitored. However I suspect some increase in the intensity by 11 PM tonight to potentially 50-60 mph sustained.

Jim

thanks for the updates

Tropical storm Alex has strengthened dangerously over the past few hours and could become the first hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season later on today. Reports from the hurricane hunter aircraft suggest maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph with higher gusts. This is supported by a much lower minimum central pressure of 992 mb.

At 8 AM EDT, the center of tropical storm Alex was located near latitude 31.3 north, longitude 79.0 west or about 120 miles south southeast of Charleston, SC. Alex has been drifting eastward over the past few hours. A slow motion towards the north and or northeast is anticipated over the next 24 hours. On this track, the center of Alex will likely make it close to the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina later today.

Maximum sustained winds are now up to near 60 mph with higher gusts. Expect additional strengthening over the next 24 hours and Alex could potentially become the first hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.

Minimum central pressure is now 992 mb or 29.29 inches as reported by the Hurricane Hunters. This is n 18 mb drop in central pressure since 5 PM EDT last night. Definitely some significant strengthening and the potential is for more strengthening. The watches and warnings remain the same this morning with Tropical Storm Watches in effect from South Santee River to Edisto Beach and from Cape Hatteras to Oregon Inlet. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect from Cape Hatteras southward to South Santee River. This could change and potentially even be upgraded if this system strengthens more than forecasted and strikes near the coast. Indications show this being more of a coastal issue as opposed to an inland threat at this time, which means dangerous rip currents, strong winds, and heavy rain squalls along the Carolina coast.
Winds could potentially reach hurricane force tonight for the North Carolina coast and especially the offshore waters.

Jim

may become a cane

I say it will become a very strong hurricane. While moving out to the northeast to east-northeast! I say 105 to 115 mph!

...Hurricane Warning issued as Alex edges toward the coast...
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued from Cape
Lookout to Oregon Inlet North Carolina...including the Pamlico
Sound. This means that hurricane conditions are expected within
the warning area during the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

At 5 PM EDT...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of
Oregon Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border...including the
Albemarle Sound.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from South Santee River
South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located
near latitude 32.1 north...longitude 78.5 west or about 150 miles
south-southwest of Wilmington North Carolina.

Alex is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph. A turn
toward the northeast is expected tonight. On the forecast
track...the center of Alex is expected to pass very near the North
Carolina Outer Banks tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Alex is forecast to become a hurricane during the next 24
hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
...165 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb...29.32 inches.

Storm total rainfall accumulations of 2-3 inches...with isolated
higher amounts...can be expected in association with Alex.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 1-2 feet above normal tide levels
can be expected on Atlantic shorelines. Storm surge flooding of 2-4
feet above normal tide levels can be expected inside Pamlico Sound.
High surf and rip currents will affect much of the southeastern and
mid-Atlantic U.S. Coastal areas for the next couple of days.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...32.1 N... 78.5 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 6 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure... 993 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Franklin

looking at 18Z full disk I noticed what appeared to be an eye forming as well.
Also like the look of 91L- reason why I put it on active storms map ;)

NHC issued a fcst - warning saying it could develop in 36 hrs.

...Alex strengthening as it moves closer to the North Carolina
coast...could become a hurricane on Tuesday...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet
North Carolina...including the Pamlico Sound. This means that
hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area during
the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should
be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Oregon Inlet to
the North Carolina/Virginia border...including the Albemarle Sound.

A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect from South Santee River
South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located
near latitude 32.8 north...longitude 77.8 west or about 95 miles
south of Wilmington North Carolina.

Alex is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph. This general
motion...with a gradual increase in forward speed...is expected
for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Alex
is forecast to pass very near the North Carolina Outer Banks on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...with higher gusts. Some
slight strengthening is forecast and Alex could become a hurricane
on Tuesday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the
center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reserve
reconnaissance aircraft was 987 mb...29.15 inches.

Storm total rainfall accumulations of 2-3 inches...with isolated
higher amounts...can be expected in association with Alex.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 1-2 feet above normal tide levels
can be expected on Atlantic shorelines. Storm surge flooding of 2-4
feet above normal tide levels can be expected inside Pamlico Sound.
High surf and rip currents will affect much of the southeastern and
mid-Atlantic U.S. Coastal areas for the next couple of days.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...32.8 N... 77.8 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 987 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Stewart


$$

Over the next 24-36 hours, much of eastern North Carolina and parts of southeastern Virginia will be raked by excessive rainfall of over three inches, winds gusting over hurricane force, pounding surf, and coastal flooding with a storm surge of 2-4 feet. If the storm intensifies more than expected, parts of southeastern Virginia including Norfolk could experience this as well,

from accuweather

good info

WTNT31 KNHC 030542
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004

...ALEX BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2004 SEASON...MOVING
ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET
NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. THIS MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO
THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AT WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
INDICATE THAT ALEX HAS BECOME A HURRICANE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

ALEX IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX
IS FORECAST TO PASS VERY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS LATER
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER. A NOAA BUOY LOCATED NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS NORTH CAROLINA
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 49 MPH.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ALEX.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON ATLANTIC SHORELINES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED INSIDE PAMLICO SOUND.
HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
MID-ATLANTIC U.S. COASTAL AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...33.0 N... 77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Alex, the first hurricane of the 2004 Hurricane Season continues to strengthen this morning. At 5 AM EDT, hurricane warnings remain in effect from Cape Lookout, NC to Oregon Inlet, NC meaning hurricane conditions are expected within the next 24 hours or less. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Oregon Inlet to the NC/VA border and from Cape Lookout to Santee River, SC meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 24 hours. Frying Pan Shoals had a sustained wind of 38 mph with a gust to 47 mph while Wilmington, NC area gusted to 40 mph throughout the early morning hours on Tuesday.

At 5 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Alex was located near latitude 33.5 north, longitude 76.9 west or about 80 miles south southeast of Cape Lookout, North Carolina or 75 miles east southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina.

Movement is northeast at 10 mph, which is expected to continue with a increase in forward speed throughout the day today. This brings the center of Hurricane Alex close to the Outer Banks later today.

Maximum sustained winds are now up to near 80 mph with higher gusts. Alex could strengthen further throughout the day today.

Minimum central pressure is 983 mb or 29.03 inches. This could also drop further as the morning wears on.

Storm surge levels of 1-2 feet can be expected along the Atlantic Shoreline with 2-4 foot surges expected on the Pamilco Sound. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches with isolated higher amounts are possile with Alex, expecially closer to the Outer Banks.

Alex isn't the only tropical system in the Atlantic this morning. We have a low pressure system about 2 1/2 days away from the Leeward Islands. It's moving toward the west northwest and is centered about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antillies. This system could become a tropical depression later today. There is also another low pressure system near the Cape Verde Islands at this time.


Jim

Jim

...Alex continues to strengthen as it approaches the Outer Banks...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Lookout to Oregon
Inlet North Carolina...including the Pamlico Sound. This means
that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
during the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Oregon Inlet to
the North Carolina/Virginia border...including the Albemarle Sound.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear to Cape
Lookout North Carolina.

At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Alex was located near
latitude 34.1 north...longitude 76.5 west or about 35 miles
south of Cape Lookout North Carolina.

Over the past few hours Alex has been moving toward the
north-northeast near 14 mph. A motion toward the northeast with an
increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On
the forecast track...the center of Alex will begin passing very
near the North Carolina Outer Banks later this morning. Any motion
to the left of the forecast track could bring the center of the
hurricane across the North Carolina Outer Banks.

Reports from a reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Alex continues
to strengthen with maximum sustained winds near 90 mph...with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105
miles.

The minimum central pressure measured by reconnaissance aircraft was
972 mb...28.70 inches.

Storm total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches...with isolated
higher amounts...can be expected in association with Alex.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 2 feet above normal tide levels
can be expected on Atlantic shorelines. Storm surge flooding of 2
to 4 feet above normal tide levels can be expected inside Pamlico
Sound. High surf and rip currents will affect much of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. Coastal areas for the next
couple of days.

Repeating the 8 am EDT position...34.1 N... 76.5 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 90 mph. Minimum central pressure... 983 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Franklin


$$

...Alex a category two hurricane as it parallels the Outer Banks...
At 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued
south of Surf City North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning
remains in effect from Surf City to Cape Lookout.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Lookout to Oregon
Inlet North Carolina...including the Pamlico Sound. This means
that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
during the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property
should have been completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of Oregon
Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border...including the
Albemarle Sound.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Alex was located near
latitude 34.7 north... longitude 75.8 west or about 40 miles
south-southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Alex is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph. A northeastward
motion with a small increase in forward speed is expected during
the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Alex is
expected to remain just offshore the North Carolina Outer Banks.
However...any motion to the left of the expected track could bring
the center of the hurricane over the Outer Banks.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...mainly to the
east of the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward
up to 105 miles.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb...28.70 inches.

Additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches can be expected
in association with Alex.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels
can be expected on Atlantic shorelines. Storm surge flooding of 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels can be expected inside Pamlico
Sound. High surf and rip currents will affect much of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. Coastal areas for the next
couple of days.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over the Outer Banks this afternoon.

Repeating the 11 am EDT position...34.7 N... 75.8 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 15 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure... 972 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1 PM EDT and 3 PM EDT followed
by the next complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Franklin

$$

...Tropical depression forms in the tropical Atlantic east of the
Lesser Antilles...

tropical storm watches and warnings will likely be issued later
today for some of the Lesser Antilles. Interests in the Lesser
Antilles...Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should closely monitor
the progress of this system.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression Two was located near latitude 13.2 north...longitude
54.2 west or about 460 miles... 735 km...east of the Windward
Islands.

The depression is moving toward the west near 21 mph...33 km/hr. On
this track the tropical cyclone will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph...45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast and the system could become a
tropical storm before it reaches the Lesser Antilles.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Repeating the 11 am EDT position...13.2 N... 54.2 W. Movement
toward...west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 30 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Avila


$$

Looking at the latest on MAJOR Hurricane Alex shows a well defined tropical cyclone tonight across the north Atlantic, which will only be a concern for shipping and deep sea fishermen only. More on the latest advisory on MAJOR Hurricane Alex in just a minute.

Recapping this system reveals plenty of damage with this system over the Outer Banks of North Carolina from wind, storm surge, and heavy flooding rains. Prior to this hurricane, Cape Hatteras was down 10.88 inches for the year. They nearly made all of that up in just a few hours with Hurricane Alex. In addition, there was plenty of damaging sustained wind and wind gusts. Below are some of the peak wind reports received in association with Alex yesterday over the Outer Banks.

Buxton, NC: sustained at 80 mph with gusts of 90-100 mph
Hatteras Village, NC: 102 mph wind gust
Ocracoke Ferry Terminal: 120 mph wind gust

Carteret County: gusts to 55 mph
Cape Lookout: 64 mph gust

In addition to winds over hurricane force, there was severe soundside storm surge flooding, which shut down highway 12 and flooded many homes south of Cape Hatteras, NC. Over 10,000 customers in the Outer Banks area lost power with Hurricane Alex. However there were some notable differences between Hurricane Alex and Hurricane Isabel. Below is a list of those differences.

HURRICANE ALEX

10-15 foot waves
Small sized storm
alittle beach erosion
10000 customers lost power
affected the outer banks only
strengthened to a category 2
struck during low tide


HURRICANE ISABEL

40-45 foot waves
tremendous beach erosion
8 million customers lost power
affected up to 9 states including eastern Canada
Was a category 5 before it made landfall
struck during high tide



Luckily tonight, Alex is moving away from the United States and is only an interest to shipping and deep sea fishermen only. However Alex has become the first major hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Alex is centered near latitude 38.9 north, longitude 64.8 west or about 800 miles Southwest of Cape Race, NewFounderLand. Alex is moving east northeast at near 25 mph. Maximum sustained winds right now are up to 120 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next day as Alex moves over colder waters.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb or 28.26 inches.

Jim

Very good discussion Jim!

Looking at the latest update on Hurricane Alex shows the center located near latitude 41.7 north, longitude 57.6 west or about 410 miles southwest of Cape Race, NewFounderLand. Movement is toward the east northeast at 35 mph and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 120 mph with higher gusts and minimum central pressure is 957 mb or 28.26 inches.

Looking at recent satellite images of Alex shows Alex has peaked and is perhaps showing the beginnings of a weakening trend as the hurricane is moving north of 42 degrees north and east of 60 degrees west. As a result of this, Alex is encountering colder waters and by 5 PM it should begin to weaken. The first signs of this weakening trend are the cloud tops are waming around the circulation center. In addition there is a low stratus deck developing inside the eye of the hurricane, which suggest weakening. Over the next few days, wind fields around this system will broaden as wind speeds drop. The next area impacted by the remnants of Alex will be in parts of western Europe as a possible gale center by later this weekend or into early next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we focus on the eastern Caribbean once again as a very strong tropical wave has reignited once again. A look at this system reveals that it doesn't have a low level circulation. Instead it has a sharp wind shift line and is being considered a very strong tropical wave at this point. Winds are light across all of the Caribbean Islands today. However wind gusts with this tropical wave maybe 35-45 mph at times. A powerful wave at this point as it continues to head west northwestward through the open waters of the Caribbean. This will continue to be watched for signs of development.

Jim

nice

As of 11 PM EDT, Hurricane Alex is quickly losing tropical characteristics and is weakening rapidly over the cold north Atlantic. At 11 PM EDT, The center of Hurricane Alex was located near latitude 44.9 north, longitude 47.4 west or about 300 miles east southeast of Cape Race, NewFounderland. Alex is moving toward the east northeast at near 45 mph and this general motion is expected to continue.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased down to 85 mph with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is anticipated as Alex continues losing tropical characteristics over colder waters. Minimum central pressure is now 981 mb or 28.97 inches. Although weakening continues with Hurricane Alex, rapid variations in harbor water levels are possible between 12 and 3 am local time along the east coast of Avalon Peninsula between Cape Race and Cape Saint Francis and along the eastern side of the Bonavista Peninsula and possibly the Conception Bay as well. I'm expecting the final advisory to be written on Alex sometime Friday morning as it continues to rapidly weaken and become extratropical.

Meanwhile, we got heavy rain tonight over Hispaniola in association with former Tropical Depression #2. Most of this heavy rain is likely being cause by orographic lift over the mountains. Thus localized flooding is a possibility with this system. Notice tonight on satellite how the actual wave axis has outran the actual convective complex from earlier this afternoon. Thus this convective blob from earlier has collapsed. This system continues to track west northwest and could impact Cuba and the Bahamas over the next few days with heavy rainfall.

Then the focus shifts into the Gulf Of Mexico where the situation could become quite interesting this weekend. What if former TD#2 impacts the Gulf and interacts with the cold front approaching the central Gulf??? Another possibility is what if a new low pressure system at the surface develops over the Gulf Of Mexico on the back side of this very strong cold front. Anyone along the Gulf Coast are reccommended to keep a close eye on the Gulf Of Mexico this weekend as strong cold fronts this time of year over the Gulf can prove very dangerous as far as transitioning over to strong tropical systems potentially. With sea surface temperatures this time of year near 90 degrees in some places in the Gulf, a old cold front with a possible developing low pressure could mean huge trouble later this weekend into early next week potentially. Keep an eye on it.

Finally tonight, we got a tropical low pressure system with little convection with it tonight about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antillies. Nothing immient as far as tropical development is concerned. We'll watch it though.

That's the latest at this time. Keep an eye on the Gulf this weekend. Seeya!

Jim

Looking at the latest on now Tropical Storm Alex shows the last advisory has been written on it as of 11 am edt. Tropical Storm Alex is rapidly weakening and becoming an extratropical system over the cold north Atlantic. But this system has had quite a history including becoming the strongest major hurricane to ever develop north of 38N latitude with 120 mph winds. This surpasses Hurricane Ellen back in 1973 when it developed into a major north of 38N with 115 mph winds. Only two major hurricanes have ever developed north of 38 degrees north, Ellen and now Alex. This thing also produced sustained winds of 80 mph at Hatteras Village with a gust to 102 mph. Ocracoke gusted to 120 mph while Buxton gusted to over 85 mph. There was significant soundside storm surge south of Hatteras with 4-6 foot surge. Rainfall amounts were close to a foot in some places on the Outer Banks. Hatteras was down 10.88 inches for the year. They made alot of that up in one storm back on Tuesday.

Currently Tropical Storm Alex is weakening and is nearly extratropical at this time. The 11 AM stats on Alex, now extratropical shows the center located near latitude 47.5 north, longitude 34.6 west or about 870 miles east of Cape race Newfoundland.

Alex is moving east northeast at near 46 mph and this motion will continue today. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Alex is expected to merge with an extratropical cyclone, then become absorbed into it later today.

Tropical Storm winds extend outward 345 miles from the center, just another indication that we have achieved extratropical transition. Minimum central pressure is 987 mb or 29.15 inches. We can now say farewell to Alex, which will forever be a memorable one.

Shifting our focus, a 1014 mb tropical low pressure system continues to head west roughly near latitude 17.5 north 45.5 west. This system has only marginally favorable upper winds with it with the southwesterly shear overtop of it. However this could potentially form into a depression later on today or on Saturday.

Meanwhile a tropical wave continues to head west through Hispaniola, southeastern Cuba, and Jamaica bringing locally heavy rainfall to the region. An airforce hurricane hunter aircraft may investigate this system later this afternoon if NECCESSARY. Otherwise no other tropical development is expected in the Caribbean today.

Finally looking at the Gulf Of Mexico shows a cold front has dived all the way down into the northern Gulf Of Mexico and should move through the north central Gulf tonight through Saturday. This is a dangerous place for cold fronts to be because as they wash out, we could see potentially a low pressure system develop and become tropical in nature. Sea surface temps between 88 and 90 degrees makes the situation quite dangerous when a cold front dives into the Gulf Of Mexico. This will definitely need to be watched closely over the upcoming weekend for signs of a tropical low and possibly even some tropical development.

That's the latest for this time.

Jim

What that upper low back to the southwest. Once that happens that wave will move into the Gulf. In form a upper level high over it. There is a slim chance for a Barry 2!

Well if you figure that wave i.e. former TD#2 in the northern Caribbean tracks WNW into the southeast Gulf and combines with a washed out stationary front and 90 degree Gulf waters, it all proves to be a dangerous combination for the development of a tropical low and eventually tropical cyclone development. We gotta keep an eye on it. By early next week, we'll definitely know.

Some of the bigger hurricanes of the recent past developed with washed out frontal boundaries. Alicia in '83 and Opal in '95. Could it be Bonnie in '04?? Only time will tell. We certainly cannot discredit the possibility of another major hurricane the the boiling waters of the Gulf Of Mexico with this setup.

Jim