...Third tropical depression of the season forms near the Windward
Islands...

interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of this system.
At 145 PM AST...1745z...the center of Tropical Depression
Three was located near latitude 11.7 north...longitude 61.1 west or
about 50 miles... 80 km...southeast of Grenada.

The depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph
...35 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
The depression could become a tropical storm tonight or on Tuesday.
Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely over portions of the
Windward Islands through this evening...especially over elevated
terrain.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.

Repeating the 145 PM AST position...11.7 N... 61.1 W. Movement
toward...west near 22 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 PM AST.

Forecaster Pasch

000
WTNT43 KNHC 091748
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS
EARLIER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ISLANDS OF TRINIDAD AND
MARGARITA SHOW WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10
KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THERE IS NOW A DEFINITE CLOSED CIRCULATION
AT THE SURFACE...THE SYSTEM NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS BEING
NUMBERED AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY
WELL-ORGANZIED SYSTEM WITH DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES. THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THIS IS SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS 280/19. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH
SHOULD MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. LATER IN
THE PERIOD...CONSIDERABLE SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS CALLED
FOR AS THE CYCLONE NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS TRACK IS A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL MODEL
OUTPUT.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1745Z 11.7N 61.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 12.0N 63.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 13.0N 66.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 14.0N 70.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 15.0N 73.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 17.0N 78.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 19.0N 81.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 21.5N 85.0W 70 KT

2 P.M. AST 8/9/2004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 UPDATE #1

This is an independent product

Surface observations indicate that Tropical Depression 3 has formed over the Windward Islands. Therefore, updates are now being issued. Tropical Depression 3 has been bringing wind gusts to tropical storm intensity to the Windward Islands today. These conditions are expected to continue for a few more hours before weakening.

All residents of the central and western Caribbean need to monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous tropical cyclone. This system has the potential to become a significant tropical storm or hurricane in a few days.

Currently, the center of Tropical Depression 3 is located near 11.7N and 61.1W. This places the center about 50 miles SE of Grenada. The motion is to the west near 20 m.p.h. This track should continue, with a slight north of west component, keeping the system north of the South American coast; however, there remains the chance for some heavy rainfall for the area, which could produce life threatening mudslides in the mountains.

Maximum winds are near 35 m.p.h. However, gusts are above tropical storm intensity. The pressure is estimated to be 1011mb. Significant intensification is expected due to the very favorable environment that this system will be encountering and this feature could eventually become a hurricane.

Next Update: 5 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

2100 UTC 8/9/2004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 FORECAST #1

This is an independent product

Newly formed Tropical Depression 3 has been moving slightly north of due west over the past few hours. Guidance indicates that the ridge to the north that is currently steering the system will slowly erode; thus, allowing the system to slow and turn more WNW and NW. For now, we will keep the storm south of Jamaica as the track guidance indicates that the system not start to turn for a couple of days. However, the current heading of 280 should be enough to keep it north of S America. The track forecast is right of the BAM models as they appear to be too far south with the system going into Belize or the southern Yucatan.

Initial intensity is 30KT with stronger gusts in the squalls. The environment appears to be extremely favorable for further development with a large anti-cyclone established over the system at upper levels. In the short term, the fact that this depression does not have an inner-core should be enough to prevent any rapid intensification. Therefore only a slow intensification is forecast through 36 hours. However, as the system organizes, the rate of intensification should increase. SHIPS forecasts a major hurricane in 120 hours and this forecast will do likewise, though slightly higher than SHIPS in 120 hours due to the anticipated favorable environment. The only fly in the ointment could be if the Gulf system develops significantly. That would possibly create a shearing environment due to the outflow.

Initial (1800 UTC): 11.7N 61.1W 30KT
12 Hour: 12.6N 65.0W 35KT
24 Hour: 13.5N 68.9W 40KT
36 Hour: 14.4N 72.5W 45KT
48 Hour: 15.3N 76.0W 50KT
72 Hour: 17.0N 80.0W 65KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 19.5N 83.5W 85KT
120 Hour: 22.5N 85.5W 110KT (near land)

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

Tropical Depression Three Forecast 1
4:15PM EDT MON AUG 9 2004

...Tropical depression forms in Eastern Caribbean...

Although these forecasts have been shown reliable, first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center.

...Based on 1915 UTC images...

Visible satellite shows an excellent presentation, and T-numbers are at 2.0/2.0 as of this afternoon, thus intensity will be placed at 30kts. Outflow is excellent in all directions, and shear is low for now. A broad low-level center is evident on SSMI and visible images, further supporting the upgrade to a tropical depression. I would be rather inclined to see a new QuikSCAT pass of the storm and/or receive Recon estimates to see a more accurate intensity of the storm, but a tropical depression could from in the next few hours.

First, the track forecast--the easier part in the forecast. The depression will continue on its current movement for the next 72 hours, slowing down gradually after 36 hours, after the Atlantic subtropical ridge loses its hold on steering the system. After 72 hours, the system will move northwestward in response to a trough which will slowly move across the eastern US. This trough is currently located over the Great Plains. Quite simply, the system will continue northwestward at about half its current pace through the end of the forecast period as the trough creates a weakening in the Atlantic ridge. However, note that should the disturbance over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico associated with former Tropical Depression Two develop, then a weakening will be caused in the ridge earlier in the forecast period, and the track forecast would be required to shift to the right. However, the depression is not forecast to develop significantly in the next 24 hours.

The intensity forecast is much more difficult to grasp. Currently conditions are excellent for further development. Shear is very low, with vertical shear of less than 10 knots, with horizontal shear values at around 10 knots. Additionally, an upper level anticyclone is developing over the system, which would aid the system in facing heavier shear later in the forecast period. Vertical shear throughout the Caribbean is extremely favorable for development, less than 10 knots throughout; however, surface shear values do increase to 20 to 25kts in the western Caribbean, as a result of westerlies, and it will remain throughout the forecast period--upper level winds range from 30 to 35kts. The system will also be moving rather quickly in the opposite direction for the initial 48 hours. Therefore, only modest intensification is forecasted through the initial 72 hours, and I will keep the system short of hurricane status through 72 hours. However, horizontal winds will decrease after 72 hours, as the storm moves northwestward--down to 5 to 15kts rather quickly from 96 hours to 120 hours; therefore, conditions may be ripe for very fast intensification, depending on the condition of the storm at that point. I will allow for a minimal hurricane in 96 hours. The other predicament in this forecast--the system is basically a large complex of moisture amid otherwise dry air. As for now, the low-level center is very well protected; however, as the storm moves into heavier westerlies, the chances for dry air entrainment will increase a little. For this reason also, I will allow for only modest intensification through 72 hours, and really through 96 hours as well.

All interests in the eastern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of this system.

INIT 11.9N 61.6W 30KTS
12HR 12.1N 64.6W 40KTS
24HR 12.4N 67.6W 45KTS
36HR 12.9N 70.4W 50KTS
48HR 13.5N 73.0W 55KTS
72HR 15.8N 77.4W 60KTS
96HR 18.3N 80.9W 65KTS
120HR 20.9N 83.0W 80KTS

Experimental Shear/Dry Air Model (See information here.)

INIT 1011mb
12HR 1006mb
24HR 1002mb
36HR 1001mb
48HR 1002mb
72HR 1000mb/1006mb..DRY AIR?
96HR 992mb/998mb
120HR 978mb/984mb

Powell

000
WTNT43 KNHC 092030
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT IMPRESSIVE ORGANIZATION OF
THE OUTER CLOUD STRUCTURE...WITH IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO CONCENTRATION OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND A LACK OF CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL
RUN...MAINLY DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY PREDICTION.

MOTION CONTINUES AT AROUND 280/19. NO MATERIAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE REASONING BEHIND IT. A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DUE TO A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE GFS AND GFDL
SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 11.8N 62.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 12.5N 64.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 13.4N 68.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 14.3N 71.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 15.3N 74.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 17.5N 79.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 19.5N 82.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 14/1800Z 22.0N 85.5W 70 KT

great info

TD 3 is going to be at least a CAT 1 ( if not CAT 2 ) hurricane , folks !!
Everything is in place for it to intensify rapidly.

000
WTNT43 KNHC 100250
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE APPEARS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE TYPICALLY UNFAVORABLE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE BANDING
IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE ARE EARLIER TODAY...NEW CONVECTION IS
FORMING NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE STILL APPEARS DISORGANIZED AS A NEW CENTER APPEARS TO BE
FORMING FURTHER NORTH. ACCORDINGLY...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT AND 35 KT
FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD
AND THE DEPRESSION IS WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM
INTENSITY FORECAST GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A
MORE STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS.

MOTION CONTINUES AT A BRISK 285/20. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND STEER THE
DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS
BUT THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE AS DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE DEPTH OF THE
STORM AND THE EVOLUTION OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. NOGAPS
MAINTAINS A SHALLOW STORM AND TAKES A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE
GFS AND GFDL DEPICT A DEEPER SYSTEM WHICH TURNS MORE NORTHWARD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR
AS THE GFDL OR GFS WHICH BOTH TAKE THE STORM OVER JAMAICA.

FORECASTER RHOME/LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 12.4N 64.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 13.1N 66.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 14.2N 70.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 15.3N 73.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 16.4N 76.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 18.5N 80.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 20.8N 83.3W 65 KT
120HR VT 15/0000Z 24.0N 86.0W 70 KT

000
WHXX01 KWBC 100649
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM THREE (AL032004) ON 20040810 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040810 0600 040810 1800 040811 0600 040811 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.7N 65.3W 13.8N 68.9W 14.8N 72.0W 15.7N 74.8W
BAMM 12.7N 65.3W 13.9N 68.9W 14.9N 72.0W 16.0N 74.7W
A98E 12.7N 65.3W 13.7N 69.3W 14.5N 72.9W 15.1N 76.2W
LBAR 12.7N 65.3W 13.8N 68.9W 14.9N 72.4W 15.8N 75.6W
SHIP 35KTS 44KTS 53KTS 61KTS
DSHP 35KTS 44KTS 53KTS 61KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040812 0600 040813 0600 040814 0600 040815 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.5N 77.1W 18.2N 81.6W 20.7N 85.0W 23.5N 86.9W
BAMM 16.9N 77.2W 18.7N 81.8W 21.3N 85.0W 24.6N 86.5W
A98E 15.6N 79.1W 17.0N 83.7W 18.7N 87.4W 20.6N 90.4W
LBAR 16.8N 78.6W 19.0N 83.2W 23.2N 85.4W 28.9N 84.8W
SHIP 70KTS 86KTS 97KTS 101KTS
DSHP 70KTS 86KTS 97KTS 101KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.7N LONCUR = 65.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 21KT
LATM12 = 11.7N LONM12 = 61.1W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 57.3W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 50NM

Tropical Depression Three
TropicalUpdate.com
Forecast Number 1
9:30PM EDT Monday August 9, 2004


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

THIS PRODUCT IS NOT OFFICIAL. PLEASE SEE NHC PRODUCTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION.

TECHNICAL FORECAST #1

Tropical Depression Three has an impressive satellite presentation this evening and upper outflow is well established in all quadrants. The deepest convection remains displaced to the north and west of the low center...and the overall circulation envelope remains broad without a well-established inner core to the system. However...thunderstorm activity has been on the increase near the satellite estimated circulation center.

Tonight's track guidance...at least from the global models...remains limited. Through 72 hours...however...the system should continue to move to the west or west northwest. After day three...what should become a strong tropical storm will begin to slow considerably as pressure heights are eroded by another trough that will drop into the US East Coast. What exactly happens from there is unclear...none of the global models initialized Bonnie and as a result...that system's impact on the long term track of Tropical Depression Three remains somewhat uncertain. Both the 18Z GFS and GFDL guidance agree that the system should be near 20N 80W in three days time...a rightward shift from earlier today...then the system is expected to head more NNW the Northward late in the forecast period. This shift in the guidance is not entirely unexpected...and in fact some additional rightward adjustments to the track may be necessary if/when the global models do a better job handling Bonnie. In fact...the forecast track below...one the right side of the guidance at 18Z...is now more or less in the middle of the 00Z track guidance.

Satellite intensity estimates range from 1.5 from AFWA...to 2.5 from TAFB...with SAB splitting the difference. As mentioned above the satellite presentation is well-organized but not consolidated. The activity to the northwest of the center is pulsing down a bit this evening...and as this occurs deeper thunderstorm activity is expected to develop closer to the center of circulation...and the depression should have little trouble becoming a tropical storm in the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time...water temperatures are warm and the upper environment should allow for strengthening. Although most of the objective guidance calls for a borderline major hurricane in three days time...the forecast below is not quite as aggressive...mainly due to uncertainty surrounding potential land interaction later in the period.

It is too early to speculate on where along the US East coast...if anyplace...will be affected by this system. Residents in the central and eastern Caribbean should continue to monitor the progress of this system

WATKINS - 2004080100-0110Z

PLEASE REFER TO FORECASTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.


FORECAST TIMES VERIFY TIME POS N POS W INTENSITY
INITIAL 00Z 0810 12.1N 63.1W 30 KNTS
+12 Hours 12Z 0810 12.7N 66.9W 35 KNTS
+24 Hours 00Z 0811 13.6N 70.4W 40 KNTS
+36 Hours 12Z 0811 14.7N 73.5W 50 KNTS
+48 Hours 00Z 0812 15.9N 76.2W 60 KNTS
+72 Hours 00Z 0813 18.8N 81.0W 70 KNTS
+96 Hours 00Z 0814 22.0N 83.5W 80 KNTS
+120 Hours 00Z 0815 26.0N 84.0W 85 KNTS

000
WTNT43 KNHC 100850
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OVERNIGHT HAS
PERSISTED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE OUTER BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE
CURRENTLY MINIMAL BUT INCREASING...THE CIRCULATION OCCUPIES A LARGE
ENVELOPE AND OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS. DVORAK CI
NUMBERS ARE A CONSENSUS 2.5...AND ON THIS BASIS THE SYSTEM IS
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY WITH AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT.

CHARLEY CONTINUES TO SPEED ALONG AT 285/21...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THE INCREASED DEPTH OF THE
CONVECTION. MOST TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE
THEREAFTER AS CHARLEY REACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE THE
NOGAPS...GFDL...AND UKMET NOW TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE GFS
TAKES CHARLEY INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT DAYS FOUR AND
FIVE. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND A LITTLE FASTER
GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION.

THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF CHARLEY IS QUITE FAVORABLE...WITH VERY WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR AND AN INCREASINGLY WARM OCEAN. THE GFDL MAKES
CHARLEY A HURRICANE WITHIN THREE DAYS...AND SHIPS DOES SO IN LESS
THAN TWO DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...BUT INDICATES MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM.

FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 13.0N 66.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 13.9N 69.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 15.0N 72.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 16.3N 76.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 17.5N 79.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 19.5N 82.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 22.5N 86.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 26.0N 88.0W 80 KT

5 A.M. AST 8/10/2004 TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY UPDATE #4

This is an independent product

Charley is intensifying in the eastern Caribbean and is moving in the general direction of Jamaica.

All residents of the central and western Caribbean need to monitor the progress of Charley very closely as this has the potential to become a very dangerous hurricane. NWHHC may recommend a Hurricane Watch for Jamaica later today.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Charley is located near 13.0N and 66.3W. This places the center about 450 miles SE of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. The motion is to the WNW near 24 m.p.h. This general heading, with a slowdown is expected for the next few days, bringing the system near Jamaica sometime later tomorrow or Thursday.

Maximum winds are estimated to be near 40 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 1005mb. Slow development is expected for about another day before significant intensification is expected to begin. This system is currently forecast to be a very dangerous hurricane in a few days.

Next Update: 11 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

0300 UTC 8/10/2004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 FORECAST #2

This is an independent product

It appeares as if it is only a matter of hours before Tropical Depression 3 becomes Tropical Storm Charley. Recent satellite imagery shows further convective activity near the center. The intensity forecast is not changed significantly from the previous update. Should be noted that SHIPS no longer shows a major hurricane; although that is likely due to the persistence parameter showing 0 development over the last 6 hours, in contrast to an increase from before. 120 hour intensity remains the same, though 96 hour intensity is increased somewhat, in agreement with the general trend of the GFDL models that show more development out to 96 hours.

The track reasoning is unchanged and Tropical Depression 3 is on the previous forecast track. Therefore, this track is merely extended. Too soon to speculate about any United States landfall; however, the trends are toward the eastern Gulf. What it is not too early to say is that Jamaica, the Caymans, and Cuba need to monitor this potentially dangerous cyclone very closely.

Initial (0000 UTC): 12.1N 63.1W 30KT
12 Hour: 13.0N 67.0W 35KT
24 Hour: 13.9N 70.6W 40KT
36 Hour: 14.8N 74.0W 45KT
48 Hour: 15.6N 77.0W 50KT
72 Hour: 17.5N 81.0W 70KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 20.5N 84.0W 90KT
120 Hour: 23.5N 85.5W 110KT

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

000
WTNT43 KNHC 101429
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...35 KT...AND 45 KT...FROM
AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40
KT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK OUT THE STORM LATER
TODAY AND SHOULD GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF CHARLEY.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS PARTICULARLY PROMINENT OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...AND THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING. THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE
IN STRENGTH BUT IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS OR GFDL
GUIDANCE. CHARLEY IS LIKELY TO BE A HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
INTENSITY PREDICTIONS AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A BIT BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS...AND THE 12 FT SEAS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A REPORT FROM
SHIP ELWR5 TO THE NORTHWEST OF CHARLEY.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ESTIMATED MOTION.
CHARLEY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A SWIFT EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT TO
THE SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER HIGH. TRACK GUIDANCE IS RATHER
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...BUT BECOMES MORE
DIVERGENT THEREAFTER. BY THAT TIME...THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS A RESULT OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE THE
EASTERNMOST OF THE ENSEMBLE WITH THE NOGAPS AND U.K. MET. OFFICE
TRACKS SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER
THESE LATTER TWO TRACKS ARE PROBABLY TOO FAR TO THE LEFT BECAUSE OF
AN UNREALISTICALLY WEAK VORTEX IN THE SIMULATION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/GFDL SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 13.7N 68.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 14.5N 71.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 15.7N 75.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 78.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 18.3N 80.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 20.5N 84.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 14/1200Z 24.0N 86.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 15/1200Z 28.0N 87.0W 85 KT

$$

1500 UTC 8/10/2004 TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY FORECAST #3

This is an independent product

Charley must be late for a date! This tropical storm has increased its forward speed and is now moving to the WNW even faster than yesterday. Forecast reasoning and guidance have not changed all that much. Track guidance is starting to vonverge upon an eastern Gulf of Mexico threat as the trough dips down and turns the system more north. This forecast is similar to the last one,e xcept that it is slightly faster and shows a 120 hour position closer to the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Intensity forecast is much more complicated. Initial is going to be set at 40KT. Satellite imagery shows that the inner-core is not all that tight. The deepest convection is located in an outer band. In addition, WV imagery shows an upper low is located to the west of the system and Charley is moving faster than the UL is moving. If Charley does not slow soon, there may be some shear over the system. SHIPS brings this to near major hurricane intensity, while the GFD models are for a cat 2. Interesting to note that GFS, which continued to over-intensify Isabel last year, only brings this to a moderate tropical storm, showing little change in intensity until a landfall in the U.S. Based upon this, and the chance of some shear starting tomorrow, I will show only little change in intensity for 24 hours, before indicating some more intensification into a marginal category 3 hurricane at the end of the period.

Initial: 13.3N 67.3W 40KT
12 Hour: 14.2N 71.0W 40KT
24 Hour: 15.0N 74.5W 45KT
36 Hour: 15.9N 77.5W 50KT
48 Hour: 16.9N 80.0W 55KT
72 Hour: 19.0N 83.5W 70KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 22.0N 86.0W 85KT
120 Hour: 26.5N 87.5W 100KT

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

Tropical Storm Charley Forecast 2
9:00AM EDT TUES AUG 10 2004

...Third tropical storm of season forms in eastern Caribbean...

Although these forecasts have been shown reliable, first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center.

T-numbers this morning now average 2.5, and satellite presentation is excellent, thus the system in the Caribbean is now a tropical storm. The low-level circulation is well-embedded within deep convection near the center of the storm, despite the storm's quick forward motion, in response to the Atlantic ridge. However, morning QuikSCAT indicates a range of 45kt and 50kt barbs. Initial intensity is set at 45kts.

The center of circulation remains rather broad this morning, but this will not hinder development, but rather aid the storm in fighting moderate shear to the west. Vertical shear values throughout the Caribbean ranges from 5 to 10kts, with horizontal values ranging from 15 to 25kts for the most part--values that are somewhat favorable for development. Horizontal values have decreased in the upper levels over the past 24 hours, and I am waiting for new QuikSCAT passes to indicate surface winds ahead of the storm; however, shear should not induce any weakening, but should be the main key in inhibiting any rapid intensification. Once the shear lays off (when the storm moves northwest out of the shear), conditions for intensification will be very conducive for development, and rapid intensification is possible. Therefore, I will call for modest strengthening through 72 hours, as the storm works its way into the Caribbean, but after 72 hours, as the storm moves out of the Caribbean and into much relaxed shear --vertical around 5 to 10kts, with horizontal values of about 10 to 15kts. QuikSCAT currently shows that the storm is likely as strong as at least 45kts, surpassing slightly the previous intensity forecast. Therefore, I will maintain this rate of intensity, allowing for intensification into a 55kt storm by the end of the day, allowing for a minimal hurricane in 36 hours. Due to the possible but unlikely scenario of brief dry air intrusion between 48 and 72 hours, as Charley moves out of the heaviest shear, I will allow only modest strengthening. The intensity forecast should also take into account possible land interaction; although, the track forecast keeps Charley over water throughout the period; therefore, I will not jump my shadow in predicting strength, but I will call for a 100kt storm at the end of the forecast period, taking for granted the track forecast that keeps Charley over water; however, this is partially taking into account land interaction.

The track forecast is at best a blend of morning model runs, which are scattered from the Bay of Campeche to just off the Florida west coast in 120 hours. UKMET and NOGAPS tend to have a little trouble initating the storm, and both take it west-northwestward into the southern Gulf. AVN produces a sharp northerly track after 72 hours, insinuating a quick and significant weakness in the Atlantic ridge. I will split the difference here (also note that GFDL moves the system just off the Yucatan in 120 hours), and initiate a northwestward turn in the latter half of the forecast period. I am much more inclined to a northwestward turn, as the current CONUS trough and Bonnie will create a weakness in the ridge that will last through about 120 hours, making any steady west-northwestward movement through 120 hours very unlikely. As aforementioned, this forecast takes the storm between the Yucatan and Cuba; however, landfall is quite possible with a small error in forecast. After 120 hours--although no official forecast is made--the ridge should slowly build back in, and a new trough will arrive around 120 hours. Charley would continue a northwestward movement--possibly similar to Bonnie's current movement, as the ridge builds back in. However, as late as Day 7, the storm will begin a turn to the east. However, the exact timing and location of this event remains widely unknown--it could occur close to the coast, or near the center of the GOM. As a result, the entire Gulf of Mexico should watch this system closely.

Note also that due to the initial forward speed (around 20kts) this forecast is faster than the model runs, and the 48hr position is near the ensemble 72 hour position. If this forecast is too fast, it will have to shift back to the right.

All interests in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system.

INIT 13.1N 66.7W 45KTS
12HR 13.9N 70.4W 55KTS
24HR 14.5N 73.8W 60KTS
36HR 15.6N 77.5W 65KTS
48HR 16.9N 80.8W 70KTS
72HR 19.9N 84.2W 80KTS
96HR 22.8N 86.4W 85KTS
120HR 25.4N 88.7W 100KTS

Experimental Shear/Dry Air Model (See information here.)

INIT 1007mb
12HR 1002mb
24HR 998mb
36HR 994mb
48HR 990mb
72HR 982mb
96HR 970mb
120HR 957mb

Powell

models-ensemble - 1200 GMT

Thanks for the nice map Ric!


392
WTNT33 KNHC 101747
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST TUE AUG 10 2004

...CHARLEY CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. THIS WATCH WILL
PROBABLY BE CHANGED TO A WARNING LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT
275 MILES... 440 KM...SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH
...39 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING
JAMAICA TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE CHARLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...14.5 N... 69.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

2100 UTC 8/10/2004 TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY SPECIAL FORECAST #4

This is an independent product

Not really sure what to say. Ship observations indicate that Tropical Storm Charley may have degenerated into an open wave. In addition, afternoon visible satellite imagery indicates that there have been significant outflow boundaries to the north of the storm and little, if any, low-level convergence. I am tempted to declare Charley an open wave and discontinue updates at this time; however, I will wait until recon completes its investigation of the storm before making this decision. In the mean time, the intensity forecast is being reduced significantly and it no longer appears as if Charley will be a major hurricane threat. Now, only SHIPS indicates a near major hurricane. The new intensity forecast is for 65KT in 120 hours as the system approaches the northern Gulf coast, and this assumes that Charley will remain as a tropical cyclone through the forecast period. If Charley slows, the west winds on the southern end of the convection will become better established.

Track guidance has shifted slightly to the right of the previous track. I will only make a slight rightward adjustment as I want to see more run to run consistency before making any significant changes to the track forecast, and I want to be sure that Charley is still a tropical cyclone.

Initial (1800 UTC): 14.8N 69.8W 40KT
12 Hour: 15.8N 74.0W 40KT
24 Hour: 16.8N 78.0W 40KT
36 Hour: 17.8N 81.5W 40KT
48 Hour: 19.0N 84.0W 40KT
72 Hour: 22.0N 85.5W 45KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 25.5N 86.0W 55KT
120 Hour: 30.0N 86.0W 65KT (near land)

Next Update: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt


:angry: :angry: :angry:

CMI WEATHER
CYCLOMAX TROPICAL WEATHER CENTRE
SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE 02A
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY
ISSUED 2200Z, 10TH AUGUST 2004

...AT 2200Z CMI WEATHER IS ISSUING A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES FROM CIENFUEGOS AND VILLA CLARA WESTWARDS, INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...

...AT 2100Z CMI WEATHER IS UPGRADING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA...

...AT 2100Z CMI WEATHER IS UPGRADING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...

...AT 2100Z CMI WEATHER IS ISSUING A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF HAIT FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC / HAITI BORDER WESTWARDS TO PORT-AU-PRINCE...

...TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY MOVING SWIFTLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN, WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 2100Z THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY WAS LOCATED ABOUT 440 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON, JAMAICA. THE SYSTEM IS HEADING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 26 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50MPH, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST, AND CHARLEY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS THE STORM IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF HAITI AND THEN VERY NEAR JAMAICA WEDNESDAY AND ON TOWARDS THE CAYMANS. THIS IS THE JUSTIFICATION FOR ISSUING TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE ABOVE AREAS.

PREPERATIONS FOR POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED IN THE WARNING ZONES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION PLEASE CHECK THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE OR YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE IS SCHEDULED FOR 2100Z, WEDNESDAY 11TH. HOWEVER AN INTERMEDIATE ADVICE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANYTIME.

JUSTIFICATION FOR SPECIAL ADVICE: ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA

Tropical Storm Charley Intermediate Advisory Number 6a

Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on August 10, 2004

...Charley stronger as it moves rapidly west-northwestward across
the central Caribbean...

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the entire southwest
peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic border westward
including Port-au-Prince...and for Jamaica.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.

At 8 PM AST...0000z......0000z...the center of Tropical Storm
Charley was located near latitude 15.7 north... longitude 71.8
west or about 365 miles...590 km...east-southeast of Kingston
Jamaica.

Charley is moving toward the west-northwest near 26 mph
...43 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours. On this track the center of the storm will be
nearing Jamaica tomorrow morning.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum winds are near 65 mph...105 km/hr...with higher
gusts...over a small area just northeast of the center. Additional
strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
...165 km mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.

Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are likely in association with
Charley.

Repeating the 8 PM AST position...15.7 N... 71.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 26 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 999 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST.

000
WTNT43 KNHC 110245
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

BACK NEAR 20Z...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER FOUND A TIGHT
CENTER WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 999 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 72 KT JUST TO THE NORTHEAST. SINCE THEN...A PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE BURST HAS FORMED OVER OR JUST EAST TO THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 55 KT BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND A 55 KT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FAST FORWARD
MOTION IS LIKELY ENHANCING THE WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE
BEYOND THAT WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE SUPPORTED BY A 999 MB STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/22...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE JUST
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THAT. CHARLEY IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM BONNIE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD MOVE CHARLEY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS HAPPEN.
THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...
CALLING FOR CHARLEY TO TRACK ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
AND WESTERN CUBA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE CLUSTERING HAS BECOME EVEN TIGHTER THAN 6 HR AGO SINCE THE GFS
AND GFDL HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD...WHILE THE NOGAPS HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD. THE FIRST 72 HR OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGE JUST A
LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. AFTER 72 HR...WHILE
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED BETWEEN THE FASTEST NOGAPS...THE
INTERMEDIATE GFDL...GFS...AND NHC98...AND THE SLOWER BAMS. THE
FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE ON THE SPEED...CALLING FOR CHARLEY TO MOVE
INLAND ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF FLORIDA AND ACCELERATE TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE 72-120 HR PART OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGH SHOWN IN THE MODELS.

CHARLEY IS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME SIGNS THAT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FROM A CYCLONE WEST OF
THE STORM IS UNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE IMPRESSIVE OUTLOW AT THIS
TIME. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON OTHER THAN
HITTING LAND THAT CHARLEY SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN. THE GFDL AND
SHIPS BOTH CALL FOR 95-100 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT HIGH JUST
YET...BUT WILL CALL FOR CHARLEY TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
OVER THE GULF. AFTER RECURVATURE...PASSAGE OVER LAND AND THE START
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 16.0N 72.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 17.1N 75.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 18.8N 78.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 20.7N 81.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 22.9N 82.3W 75 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W 85 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 15/0000Z 31.0N 82.0W 65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 16/0000Z 37.5N 77.0W 35 KT...INLAND

0300 UTC 8/11/2004 TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY FORECAST #5

This is an independent product

Charley is slightly to the right of the previous forecst track, and continues to move faster than anticipated. Motion is roughly 295. However, guidance is insistent that this motion will slow and recent satellite imagery idnicates that a slightly slowing may have begun. Guidnace is starting to converge upon a threat to the Florida Keys and then the west coast of Florida. Therefore, this track forecast needs to be shifted significantly to the right. In addition, the forward speed is increased due to not only the faster than anticipated initial motion, but due to the fact that the system should accelerate with the approaching trough. I am not entirely confident that the turn will begin as rapidly as the guidance is indicating; therefore, this forecast only shows a landfall that is 2.5 degrees to the east of the previous forecast (83.5 vs 86W). This is due to the faster motion, which will carry the storm to the west, as well as the fact that the torugh still appears to be very far north. Just to complicate matters, is that pesky UL to the west.

The previous intensity forecast should be completely disregarded. That was based upon suspicious ship reports that tended to indicate Charley was no longer a tropical cyclone. Recon set the record straight this evening and found a maximum flight level wind of 72KT at 850mb. This equates to 55KT at the surface. Recent satellite imagery shows that the inner-core may be better defined; however, this may just be a bursting phase, which is usually followed by temporary weakening of the convection. For this reason, I will hold off on making Charley a hurricane for 24 more hours, as the system nears Jamaica and the Caymans. Afterwards, assuming that the UL does not produce any significant shear and that Charley is not disrupted too much by the mountains of Jamaica, intensification at a faster rate is expected. This forecast now indicates a 95KT landfall, more in line with intensity forecasts before 2100 UTC. It should be noted that the 95KT is not reflected in the table, as the landfall is expected to occur between forecast points.

Forecast graphics may not be available with this forecast. Please disregard forecast graphics if they do not indicate forecast 5

Initial (0000 UTC): 15.7N 71.8W 55KT
12 Hour: 17.2N 75.5W 60KT
24 Hour: 18.7N 79.0W 65KT (near Jamaica)
36 Hour: 20.0N 81.5W 70KT
48 Hour: 22.0N 83.0W 80KT (near Cuba)
72 Hour: 26.0N 83.5W 90KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 32.0N 82.0W 65KT (inland)
120 Hour: 41.0N 75.0W 30KT (Extra-Tropical)

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

334
WTNT33 KNHC 110536
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM AST WED AUG 11 2004

...CHARLEY CONTINUING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD JAMAICA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER
THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD
INCLUDING PORT-AU-PRINCE.

AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST OR ABOUT
225 MILES... 360 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 25 MPH
...41 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHARLEY WILL BE
NEARING JAMAICA NEAR MIDDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND CHARLEY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES JAMAICA LATER
THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS OF JAMAICA TODAY.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY.

REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...16.4 N... 73.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN

FXUS62 KTBW 110643
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
242 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

...THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURS)...AND THIS IS THE TIME TO GET THE
HURRICANE KIT READY. THE COMBINATION OF EXISTING SUBSIDENCE AND
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING CHARLEY WILL
CONTINUE THE BENIGN WEATHER FOR MOST. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE LEVY
COUNTY...WHERE SOME AFFECT FROM UNIMPRESSIVE T.S. BONNIE MAY
SLIGHTLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...AS WELL AS A BRIEF UPTICK
IN SSW FLOW ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER HOT AGAIN TODAY
ESPECIALLY INLAND WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS. FOR THURSDAY...GFS
APPEARS TO BE TOO BOLD WITH INITIAL SPOKE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CUTTING THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE...SO HAVE DROPPED CHANCES/COVERAGE
BACK A NOTCH.

.MID TERM (THURS NIGHT-FRI)...CHARLEY SHOWING NO SIGNS OF SUFFICIENT
SLOWING. IT SHOULD DECELERATE A LITTLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
IT APPROACHES THE EDGE OF THE BUILDING CARIBBEAN/ANTILLES RIDGE...
BUT TIMING OF NEXT TROUGH LOOKS PERFECT TO QUICKLY PICK IT UP AND
BEGIN THE RECURVE. LATEST GFS AND GFDL ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL IN
TIMING...6 TO PERHAPS 12H FASTER THAN LATEST ADVISORY...AND HAVE
BEGUN TO TWEAK IN THIS DIRECTION...WITH ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT BEFORE 6
AM PENDING NEXT COORDINATION CALL. IN ANY CASE...ALL MODELS AND
OFFICIAL FCST TRACK CHARLEY INTO THE SUNCOAST ON FRIDAY.

THOUGH A BIT TOO EARLY TO TELL...THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM CHARLEY
WOULD BE WIND AND SURGE (S OF LANDFALL) GIVEN RAPID MOTION AND
SMALL-ISH SIZE. THOUGH RAINS WON'T LAST LONG...THEY WILL POUND AND
GIVEN STILL SWOLLEN RIVERS IN SOME AREAS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER FLOOD
WATCHES SOMETIME BETWEEN THURS NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.

WILL FOCUS ON THIS IN HAZ WX OUTLOOK..THINK OF THIS PRODUCT AS A
"PRE-WATCH".

ZONES/MARINE WILL REMAIN GENERIC FOR NOW...THOUGH PUBLISHED GRIDS
ARE MORE OMINOUS.

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT - TUE)...MUCH DEPENDS UPON THE SPEED AND
TRACK OF TROPICAL SYSTEM CHARLIE BUT EXPECT SURFACE TROUGHINESS
ALONG WITH A SWATH OF HIGHER MOISTURE TO RESIDE ACROSS THE CWA
SAT AND THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE ON SUN AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
IN OVER FL FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH MORE EASTERLY FLOW. FOR NOW...
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS IN SAT AND THEN TAPER DOWN
SUN INTO MON TO NEAR OR JUST UNDER CLIMO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REQUIRE AT LEAST SCA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...AGAIN DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK/SPEED OF CHARLEY. RESIDUAL FLOODING MAY BE A PROBLEM
INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MINS AND JUST UNDER FOR MAXES.

&&

.MARINE...THROUGH THURS...WITH BONNIE BACKING DOWN...SO HAVE WE
ACROSS THE NW LEG. IF BONNIE MAKES A COMEBACK (UNLIKELY) WE'LL BEEF
UP THIS AREA AS TS WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO THE EDGE OF OUR WATERS INTO
THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY LIGHT S WINDS PICKING UP A LITTLE
THURSDAY AS GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH AND GENERALLY WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF INCREASES.

THURS NIGHT/FRI...ALL EYES ON CHARLEY. FOR GRIDS...HAVE PUMPED SEAS
ABOVE 12 FEET ON FRIDAY (BASED ON INPUT FROM NHC WINDS). CURRENT
SPEEDY TRACK WOULD SPIN CONDS DOWN FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT...AND
WILL MAKE LAST MINUTE TWEAKS TO TEXT PER NHC COORDINATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. HOPEFULLY NOBODY IS PLANNING TO BURN
ON FRIDAY.&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 090 078 090 077 / 20 20 50 40
FMY 092 077 090 077 / 30 20 50 70
GIF 093 076 090 076 / 30 20 50 40
SRQ 090 077 089 077 / 20 20 50 50
BKV 092 073 090 075 / 30 20 40 20

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WTNT33 KNHC 110847
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

...CHARLEY APPROACHING JAMAICA...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS FROM DRY TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD
INCLUDING PORT-AU-PRINCE.

TROPICAL STORM AND/OR HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF CUBA LATER TODAY.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST OR ABOUT
160 MILES... 255 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH
...39 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND CHARLEY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS OF JAMAICA TODAY...AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...16.9 N... 74.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB

091
WTNT43 KNHC 110912
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

CHARLEY HAS MAINTAINED A SOLID CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AND OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS
EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED
ON DVORAK T NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA.

THE RAPID MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AT
295/21...BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY BUT ALSO ON RECENT MICROWAVE
PASSES THAT SUGGEST THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ALONG THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BUT ARE ONCE AGAIN SUGGESTING A FASTER
MOTION...BRINGING CHARLEY INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITHIN 48 HOURS...AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON
DAYS THREE AND FOUR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
BY DAY FOUR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.

THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF CHARLEY REMAINS FAVORABLE...AND THERE IS NO
REASON WHY STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD NOT OCCUR...OTHER THAN
BRIEF INTERACTIONS WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHIPS
AND GFDL GUIDANCE BOTH BRING THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
LESS THAN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS...REACHING
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY 24 HOURS...WITH
SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
WATERS WILL BE QUITE WARM AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR STILL WEAK.

SINCE THE 36 HOUR FORECAST BRINGS THE 34 KT WIND RADII JUST SOUTH OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED AT THIS TIME FROM
DRY TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0900Z 16.9N 74.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 18.1N 77.3W 60 KT...OVER JAMAICA
24HR VT 12/0600Z 19.9N 80.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 22.3N 81.8W 70 KT...OVER CUBA
48HR VT 13/0600Z 25.0N 82.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 34.0N 79.5W 55 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/0600Z 43.5N 72.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/0600Z 50.0N 59.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

Tropical Storm Charley Forecast 4
9:00AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
Although these forecasts are verified as reliable, refer to the National Hurricane Center for official forecasts, watches, and warnings.

...Charley speeds through Caribbean...

...Based on 1145 UTC images...

I'd be scared to think of how strong this storm could get and how much rain it could dump if it were moving slower. But Charley continues to speed relentlessly under the Atlantic ridge that extends into the southwest portion of the North Atlantic. T-numbers for Charley remain 3.0 this morning, and satellite does not indicate any intensification from last night--in fact last night's QuikSCAT did not even pick up an LLC. Of course, to sustain the type of convection and flow system that the storm has requires such--the storm is only moving so fast. Based on this and early RECON reports of 55kt flight level southeast of the center, initial intensity remains 55kts.

Charley is moving very quickly, and this motion will continue until it makes a northwest turn. However, model guidance now suggests that the storm will continue its quick rate up the west side of the ridge. The same guidance also shifts the forecast track further east, since the storm will move faster and catch more weakness from the trough that will carry Bonnie northeastward over the next 36 hours. This could result in an interesting track forecast, as Charley is forecast to cross the northern peninsula at a very high forward speed and move nearly parallel to the coast. The question remains in how fast the will storm be going (which could cause a concern for surge and forward speed) and the million-dollar question--will it remain offshore? Model guidance is much spread, with NOGAPS taking the storm off the northern SC coast in 72 hours. GFDL has the storm in the GOM of the southern Florida coast in 72 hours with a 102kt storm. UKMET actually lies close to NOGAPS, with the difference, that this track brings the storm just inland. And beyond 72 hours, AVN brings the storm right up the South Carolina coast just inland. Of course, now isn't really a suitable time for a pinhead forecast 72 hours out. Model guidance has shifted around much in the past day, as it gauges the effect of the trough in weakening the ridge in respect to Charley. The track forecast will follow the consensus of the tracks, and bring the storm right up the Southeast coast on Saturday.

Conditions are rather favorable for the storm to develop, but its forward speed may be causing some trouble in intensifying as noted. Of course, RECON will report probably after this forecast is written. I will allow for only modest intensification as the storm rapidly moves west-northwestward and then northward, etc. The storm may also cross Jamaica and definitely Cuba, the first in the next few hours across its width. However, the storm is moving so quickly, that little effect is expected. Also, the forecast brings landfall to near the Big Bend of Florida early Saturday morning; therefore intensification must cease there. I am rather interested though in the effect of landfall on a very fast moving LLC--I suspect that the LLC is not extremely well-organized due to its speed, and landfall could disrupt that mechanism. If the case, the forecast could be too generous, but I'll wait to see what happens before I include this. I will include a 70kt hurricane at landfall--65kts at 48 hours.

INIT 16.9N 75.4W 55KTS
12HR 18.1N 79.4W 55KTS
24HR 21.0N 81.9W 60KTS
36HR 23.9N 83.8W 60KTS...OVER WATER/GOM
48HR 27.1N 84.1W 65KTS
72HR 31.8N 80.9W 50KTS...OVER WATER/OFF GA COAST
96HR 41.6N 73.0W 35KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR..ABSORBED

Powell

URNT12 KNHC 111223
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/1223Z
B. 16 DEG 19 MIN N
75 DEG 24 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1368 M
D. 55 KT
E. 299 DEG 08 NM
F. 062 DEG 76 KT
G. 301 DEG 007 NM
H. 995 MB
I. 17 C/ 1521 M
J. 21 C/ 1525 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C12
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/3.0 NM
P. AF968 0203A CHARLEY OB 07
MAX FL WIND 76 KT NW QUAD 1221Z.

Looks like Charley is now a 75mph hurricane!

Tropical Storm Charley Advisory Number 9

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 11, 2004

...Charely nearing hurricane strength...

a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
Jamaica.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane
Watch for the following provinces of western Cuba...Pinar del
Rio...la Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Matanzas...and the Isle of
Youth.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from Dry
Tortugas to Craig Key. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours. Additional watches will likely be required for portions of
the Florida peninsula later today.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...it is recommended that the Tropical Storm
Warning for Haiti be discontinued.
Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that
Charley is centered a little to the south of previous estimates.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Charley was
relocated near latitude 16.5 north...longitude 76.1 west or about
110 miles... 175 km...south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Charley is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph
...30 km/hr...and a gradual turn to the northwest is expected during
the next day or so. On this track the center will be moving near
the South Coast of Jamaica later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Charley is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
...185 km from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane
hunters is 996 mb...29.41 inches.

Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves...are likely along the coasts of Jamaica today...and the
Cayman Islands tonight.

Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are likely in association with
Charley.

Repeating the 11 am EDT position...16.5 N... 76.1 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 996 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.

Hurricane Charley Intermediate Advisory Number 9a


Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on August 11, 2004


...Charley becomes a hurricane...rain bands spreading over
Jamaica...
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
Jamaica.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the following provinces of
western Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...Ciudad de la
Habana...Matanzas...and the Isle of Youth.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from Dry
Tortugas to Craig Key. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours. Additional watches will likely be required for portions of
the Florida peninsula later today.
Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that
Charley has strengthened...and is now a hurricane.
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the eye of Hurricane Charley was located near
latitude 16.6 north...longitude 76.8 west or about 90 miles...
150 km...south of Kingston Jamaica.

Charley is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph
...30 km/hr...and a gradual turn to the northwest is expected during
the next day or so. On this track the center will be passing to the
south of the south coast of Jamaica this afternoon and evening.
However...bands of squalls with tropical storm force winds are
likely to affect much of Jamaica today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph...120
km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
...185 km from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane
hunters is 993 mb...29.31 inches.

Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves...are likely along the coasts of Jamaica today...and the
Cayman Islands tonight.

Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are likely in association with
Charley.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...16.6 N... 76.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 75 mph. Minimum central pressure... 993 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Pasch

Charley is a hurricane , what's more : it's moving across Jamaica as we speak .

IR from 1845 Z showing it is now moving across Jamaica.

HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

THE LAST RECON MISSION FOUND 80 KT AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WHICH
SUPPORTED THE UPGRADE OF CHARLEY TO A HURRICANE. SINCE THAT TIME
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A RAGGED
BANDING-TYPE EYE SHOWING UP INTERMITTENTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER ALL
QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST...PROBABLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. HOWEVER THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...SO THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE...AND THE OCEAN VERY
FAVORABLE...FOR STRENGTHENING. THE LAND MASS OF WESTERN CUBA
SHOULD CAUSE AT MOST A TEMPORARY INTERRUPTION OF THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A BIT MORE AND...AFTER WOBBLING A
LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO HAVE
RESUMED A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE...290/15. I SEE NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY. CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO CURVE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IN ABOUT
48 HOURS...A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL RUN...AS WELL
AS WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

BASED ON THE 36 HOUR FORECAST WIND RADII AND TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD...AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 17.0N 77.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 18.3N 79.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 20.5N 81.5W 80 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 23.2N 82.5W 80 KT...NORTH COAST OF CUBA
48HR VT 13/1800Z 26.0N 82.5W 90 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.5W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/1800Z 43.5N 72.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/1800Z 49.0N 60.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

5 P.M. EDT 8/11/2004 HURRICANE CHARLEY UPDATE #12

This is an independent product

Hurricane Charley is raking Jamaica with torrential rainfall and probable life-threatening flooding and mudslides. Theese conditions will spread into the Cayman Islands overnight tonight. In addition to the flooding, the Cayman Islands can expect wind gusts approaching 100 m.p.h. and a storm surge of up to 3-5 feet. These conditions will spread into Cuba tomorrow.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba from 81 to 85W. NWHHC continue to recommend a Hurricane Watch for Cuba from 80 to 81W nd west of 85W and the the Florida Keys from Marathon to the Dry Tortugas. NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane Watch along the west coast of Florida from Naples southward to Marathon. NWHHC will in each update through 11 p.m. extend these farther northward. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Obey all orders given by local emergency management officials, especially evacuation orders. Failure to do so may place your life in danger.

Residents of the U.S. East Coast also need to monitor the progress of Hurricane Charley very closely.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Charley is located near 17.0N and 77.5W. This places the center about 85 miles SW of Kingston, Jamaica. The motion is to the WNW near 17 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue for the next 12hours or so, before turning more to the north, toward the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida during the next 48 hours.

Maximum winds remain near 75 m.p.h. The pressure is 993mb. Significant intensification is expected and Charley is expected to make landfall in Cuba and Florida as a category 2 hurricane, capable of producing moderate to extensive damage, especially from storm surge on the west coast.

Next Update: 8 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE CHARLEY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1206 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA:

CHARLOTTE DE SOTO
LEE MANATEE
SARASOTA

INCLUDING...
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND WHICH
INCLUDES CHARLOTTE HARBOR

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SPECIFIED AREA OF THE WATCH USUALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. DURING A
HURRICANE WATCH...PREPARE TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT YOUR
FAMILY AND PROPERTY IN CASE A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS
COUNTIES

...STORM LOCATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHARLEY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AND SECURE YOUR PROPERTY. THE
FOLLOWING ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS FOR PREPARING FOR THE STORM.

GROCERY STORE MAY SELL OUT OF ITEMS SOON. STOCK UP ON...
BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS
CANNED OR DRIED FOOD AND DRINKING WATER
FIRST AID SUPPLIES
PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE
CASH...CREDIT CARDS AND ATM'S MAY NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER
FUEL FOR AUTOMOBILES...GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS

AROUND THE HOUSE...
STORE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS OR YARD FURNITURE
SECURE WINDOWS WITH SHUTTERS... BOARDS ETC
BATTERY OPERATED RADIOS ARE WORKING
MOVE BOAT TO A SAFE LOCATION
TRIM LARGE TREES THAT COULD FALL ON HOUSE
MAKE SURE VALUABLE PAPERS ARE SECURE

MAKE RESERVATIONS NOW. PLAN TO EVACUATE IF YOU LIVE...
IN A MOBILE HOME
ON THE COAST
IN A LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREA
IN A HIGH RISE

IF YOU MUST EVACUATE TO A PUBLIC SHELTER REMEMBER TO BRING...
FIRST AID KIT
MEDICINE
BABY FOOD AND DIAPERS
TOILETRIES
CHANGE OF CLOTHES
BATTERY POWERED RADIO AND EXTRA BATTERIES
FLASHLIGHT
SLEEPING BAGS OR BLANKETS
IDENTIFICATION
VALUABLE PAPERS
CASH
GAMES

REMEMBER...PETS ARE NOT ALLOWED IN PUBLIC SHELTERS.

IF YOU ARE STAYING AT HOME...
TURN REFRIGERATOR TO MAXIMUM COLD
TURN OFF PROPANE TANKS
UNPLUG SMALL APPLIANCES
FILL STERILIZED JUGS AND BOTTLES WITH WATER FOR DRINKING
FILL BATH TUB AND CONTAINERS WITH WATER FOR SANITARY
PURPOSES

WHEN WINDS BECOME STRONG...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS
REMAIN IN A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE FIRST FLOOR
CLOSE ALL INTERIOR DOORS
SECURE AND BRACE EXTERIOR DOORS.

PRECAUTIONS OUTSIDE YOUR HOME SHOULD BE STARTED NOW WHILE THE
WEATHER IS STILL GOOD. IT MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE TO WORK OUTSIDE SOON.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
A STORM SURGE OF 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE NEAR...AND TO THE RIGHT OF
WHERE CHARLEY MAKES LANDFALL ON FRIDAY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY. CHARLEY IS
FORECAST TO BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES
LANDFALL...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 MPH AROUND THE CENTER.

...RAINFALL INFORMATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY. THIS WILL CAUSE MODERATE URBAN AND RIVER FLOODING.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A RISK OF TORNADOES AS THE OUTER RAINBANDS BEGIN MOVING
ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA FORECAST
OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM THURSDAY.

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 11, 2004



data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Charley has changed
little during the past few hours. The minimum pressure has been
oscillating around 992 and 993 mb. Flight-level peak wind was 76
knots with a small closed eyewall of 8 N mi. Initial intensity
remains at 65 knots. Since the outflow has improved...the shear is
low...and the fact that the hurricane is forecast to move over an
area of high oceanic heat content...intensification is
forecast...in agreement with SHIPS models. The GFDL is more
aggressive and makes Charley a 106-knot hurricane as it crosses
western Cuba.
There has been no significant change in the track. The hurricane is
moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 15 knots. A
gradual turn to the northwest and north is expected to begin soon
as a large mid to upper level trough becomes established in the
Gulf of Mexico. This is consistent with the consensus of the global
models and very close to the GFDL.
Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 12/0300z 17.8n 78.7w 65 kt
12hr VT 12/1200z 19.6n 80.9w 75 kt
24hr VT 13/0000z 22.5n 82.3w 85 kt...nearing Cuba
36hr VT 13/1200z 25.5n 82.5w 90 kt...over water
48hr VT 14/0000z 29.5n 81.5w 50 kt...inland
72hr VT 15/0000z 38.0n 77.5w 40 kt...inland
96hr VT 16/0000z 46.5n 68.0w 35 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 17/0000z 51.5n 53.0w 25 kt...extratropical

000
WTNT33 KNHC 120552
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THIS WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE
CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING EARLY THURSDAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM DRY
TORTUGAS TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND ON THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY THURSDAY.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES
...265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...23 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE NEAR OR OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. OUTER RAIN BANDS OF CHARLEY
ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAIN BANDS WITH TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF
JAMAICA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT CHARLEY HAS STRENGTHENED...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW
NEAR 85 MPH...135 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
989 MB...29.20 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA
OVERNIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER THIS
MORNING.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...18.0 N... 79.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

URNT12 KNHC 120554
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0554Z
B. 18 DEG 12 MIN N
79 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1303 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 041 DEG 70 KT
G. 295 DEG 08 NM
H. 988 MB
I. 17 C/ 1548 M
J. 20 C/ 1522 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/8
O. 1/5 NM
P. AF968 0403A CHARLEY OB 23
MAX FL WIND 98 KT NE QUAD 0407Z.