TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962004) ON 20040824 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040824 0000 040824 1200 040825 0000 040825 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.2N 29.0W 10.4N 31.5W 10.6N 34.0W 10.9N 36.4W
BAMM 10.2N 29.0W 10.5N 31.4W 10.9N 33.8W 11.2N 36.3W
A98E 10.2N 29.0W 10.5N 31.8W 10.8N 34.6W 10.9N 37.3W
LBAR 10.2N 29.0W 10.5N 31.7W 10.8N 34.5W 11.2N 37.5W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 44KTS 55KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 44KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040826 0000 040827 0000 040828 0000 040829 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.4N 38.6W 13.3N 41.8W 15.0N 43.6W 15.8N 45.0W
BAMM 11.7N 38.5W 13.4N 41.5W 15.2N 43.0W 16.2N 44.0W
A98E 11.1N 39.8W 11.6N 44.0W 11.8N 47.9W 11.6N 51.7W
LBAR 11.7N 40.6W 13.6N 45.6W 15.6N 48.4W 16.9N 49.3W
SHIP 65KTS 82KTS 89KTS 91KTS
DSHP 65KTS 82KTS 89KTS 91KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.2N LONCUR = 29.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 9.7N LONM12 = 26.0W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.1N LONM24 = 24.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 9.4N 27.4W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 24.08.2004 9.4N 27.4W WEAK

12UTC 24.08.2004 9.6N 30.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 25.08.2004 9.9N 33.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.08.2004 10.3N 36.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 26.08.2004 11.7N 39.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.08.2004 13.0N 42.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.08.2004 13.9N 44.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 27.08.2004 14.7N 46.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 28.08.2004 16.0N 46.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.08.2004 17.2N 47.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.08.2004 18.4N 48.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.08.2004 19.1N 49.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.08.2004 19.5N 49.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

906
WHXX01 KWBC 240631
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962004) ON 20040824 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040824 0600 040824 1800 040825 0600 040825 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.2N 30.5W 10.5N 33.5W 10.6N 36.5W 10.9N 39.3W
BAMM 10.2N 30.5W 10.4N 33.6W 10.4N 36.6W 10.5N 39.3W
A98E 10.2N 30.5W 10.1N 33.6W 10.2N 36.7W 10.2N 39.7W
LBAR 10.2N 30.5W 10.4N 33.5W 10.8N 36.4W 11.1N 39.6W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040826 0600 040827 0600 040828 0600 040829 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.4N 41.6W 13.0N 45.0W 13.9N 46.4W 13.7N 47.1W
BAMM 11.0N 41.4W 12.7N 43.7W 14.2N 43.5W 15.5N 42.8W
A98E 10.3N 42.3W 10.4N 46.4W 10.3N 50.1W 10.3N 54.1W
LBAR 11.8N 42.5W 13.7N 47.1W 15.4N 49.6W 15.7N 50.1W
SHIP 60KTS 70KTS 73KTS 76KTS
DSHP 60KTS 70KTS 73KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.2N LONCUR = 30.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 27.5W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 25.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

000
WHXX01 KWBC 241857
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962004) ON 20040824 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040824 1800 040825 0600 040825 1800 040826 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.6N 33.4W 10.9N 36.6W 11.2N 39.6W 11.9N 42.3W
BAMM 10.6N 33.4W 10.8N 36.5W 11.1N 39.3W 11.9N 41.7W
A98E 10.6N 33.4W 10.8N 36.0W 11.1N 38.9W 11.5N 41.6W
LBAR 10.6N 33.4W 10.8N 36.3W 11.3N 39.3W 12.0N 42.2W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS 55KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040826 1800 040827 1800 040828 1800 040829 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.7N 44.7W 14.2N 48.6W 15.2N 51.1W 14.9N 53.5W
BAMM 12.9N 43.6W 15.0N 46.4W 16.4N 47.2W 16.8N 47.9W
A98E 11.9N 44.2W 12.5N 48.5W 12.8N 52.4W 12.9N 56.5W
LBAR 12.8N 44.9W 14.9N 49.2W 16.6N 51.6W 17.9N 52.5W
SHIP 62KTS 73KTS 75KTS 75KTS
DSHP 62KTS 73KTS 75KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 33.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 30.6W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 27.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

looks like it will be a cane

96 L is a sure thing

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 1

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 24, 2004

Satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern associated with the
strong tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic has become better
organized over the past several hours...with an increase of deep
convection near the low-level circulation center. Therefore the
system is being numbered at this time. There is pronounced
upper-level outflow to the North...East...and south of the
center...but outflow is limited to the east. Analyses from the
University of Wisconsin CIMSS indicate weak vertical shear along
the projected path of the cyclone to about 50w longitude. Farther
west and north...the shear may increase as suggested by the latest
200 mb forecast from the GFS model. Therefore strengthening may be
inhibited late in the forecast period...although this is highly
uncertain.

Initial motion is slightly north of west at around 15 kt. Dynamical
model predictions indicate a weakening of the mid-tropospheric
ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone over the next several
days...due to the incursion of a trough into the central Atlantic.
This trough is at rather high latitudes however...so it is not
likely to play a direct role in steering the tropical cyclone.
Notwithstanding...the track guidance generally shows a slowing of
the forward speed and a turn toward the northwest later in the
forecast period. The NHC track forecast follows this scenario...but
is a little to the south and faster than most of the models in view
of the current motion which seems to be accelerating to the west
as we speak.

Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 25/0300z 11.2n 36.0w 25 kt
12hr VT 25/1200z 11.8n 38.2w 35 kt
24hr VT 26/0000z 12.4n 40.7w 40 kt
36hr VT 26/1200z 13.0n 43.0w 45 kt
48hr VT 27/0000z 13.8n 45.1w 50 kt
72hr VT 28/0000z 16.0n 48.5w 60 kt
96hr VT 29/0000z 18.0n 51.0w 70 kt
120hr VT 30/0000z 20.0n 53.0w 70 kt

0300 UTC 8/25/2004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 FORECAST #1

This is an independent product

Satellite imagery shows that the tropical low located to the SW of the Cape Verde Islands has a sufficient circulation and convection to be called as a tropical depression.

Track is straight forward, at least through the forecast period. The cyclone should be steered by a large ridge to its north for a couple of days before encountering a weakness. This weakness is indicated by all models. The result will be a slowing and a turn to the north. 0Z track guidance is slightly to the right of the previous, giving me good confidence in a track that takes the system well north of the islands. This is faster and left of GFDL, which appears to move the depression too slowly initially.

Initial intensity will be set to 25KT. SSM/I TPW data indicated an abundance of moisture in the surrounding environment and satellite imagery indicates little shear. Therefore, intensification into a hurricane is expected within the next 48 hours. After this, the intensity guidance levels off the intensity or weakens the storm slightly. This is when the system envounters the weakness. Therefore, only slight intensification is forecast between 48 and 72 hours, with a slight weakening afterwards.

Initial: 11.1N 35.1W 25KT
12 Hour: 12.0N 38.7W 35KT
24 Hour: 13.0N 42.1W 45KT
36 Hour: 14.2N 45.0W 55KT
48 Hour: 15.6N 47.5W 65KT
72 Hour: 18.0N 50.0W 70KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 20.0N 51.0W 70KT
120 Hour: 22.5N 51.5W 65KT

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

000
WHXX01 KWBC 250630
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX (AL062004) ON 20040825 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040825 0600 040825 1800 040826 0600 040826 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.3N 36.9W 11.9N 39.4W 12.7N 41.5W 13.7N 43.5W
BAMM 11.3N 36.9W 12.0N 39.1W 12.8N 41.0W 13.8N 42.6W
A98E 11.3N 36.9W 11.7N 40.1W 12.0N 43.2W 12.2N 46.1W
LBAR 11.3N 36.9W 11.8N 39.8W 12.7N 42.5W 13.7N 45.0W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040827 0600 040828 0600 040829 0600 040830 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 45.2W 16.0N 48.1W 16.5N 50.6W 16.1N 53.8W
BAMM 14.7N 44.0W 15.9N 46.3W 16.5N 48.3W 16.6N 50.9W
A98E 12.2N 48.6W 12.2N 52.9W 12.4N 56.9W 12.6N 61.7W
LBAR 14.7N 47.0W 16.6N 50.3W 17.6N 52.5W 17.7N 55.0W
SHIP 59KTS 72KTS 78KTS 82KTS
DSHP 59KTS 72KTS 78KTS 82KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 36.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 33.6W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 30.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 2


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 25, 2004



IR imagery indicates that the tropical depression is gradually
becoming better organized. Deep convection has increased a
little...primarily in a curved band to the north...and the outflow
is established everywhere but to the east of the center. Initial
intensity is 30 knots based on Dvorak estimates. The cyclone will
likely strengthen since it is expected to be embedded within a
favorable environment of low shear and warm SSTs for the next 2 to
3 days. Thereafter...the cyclone should encounter some shear as
suggested by global and SHIPS models. However...the shear is not
expected to be strong enough to hinder slow strengthening.
The depression is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 15 knots.
Currently...the cyclone is south of a strong subtropical ridge but
unanimously...all global models weaken the ridge as a mid-latitude
trough moves eastward across the Atlantic. This pattern should
force the cyclone to move toward the northwest with a gradual
decrease in forward speed beyond 3 days. Because of continuity...
the official forecast is very close to the previous one but it is
still to the left of the GFDL and the consensus models. Most likely
the track has to be adjusted to the right later today if models
insist on the development of the mid-Atlantic trough. At this
time...the official forecast and available track models suggest
that the cyclone will turn northwestward well-east ot the Lesser
Antilles in 4 or 5 days.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 25/0900z 11.4n 37.6w 30 kt
12hr VT 25/1800z 11.8n 39.8w 35 kt
24hr VT 26/0600z 12.5n 42.3w 40 kt
36hr VT 26/1800z 13.5n 44.0w 45 kt
48hr VT 27/0600z 14.5n 46.0w 50 kt
72hr VT 28/0600z 16.5n 49.0w 60 kt
96hr VT 29/0600z 19.0n 52.0w 70 kt
120hr VT 30/0600z 22.0n 54.0w 70 kt

Tropical Storm Six Forecast 1
10:00AM EDT WED AUG 25 2004

Although these forecasts have been shown reliable, first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center.

...Sixth tropical storm of season forms well east of the islands; no threat to land...

...Based on 1245 UTC images...

A QuikSCAT pass detected uncontaminated surface winds of 40 and 45kts northwest of the center, and T-numbers this morning have reached 2.5; therefore, the depression in the east-central Atlantic is upgraded to a tropical storm. Outflow looks healthy on the storm, particularly on the windward side of the system, and shear values are favorable for modest development. The center of circulation is also clearly indicated on visible images this morning--the storm is healthy. Based on these observations, initial intensity is set in conjunction with T-numbers at 35kts.

The storm is currently riding on the south periphreal of a building subtropical ridge over the Atlantic; however, model guidance unanimously takes the storm northwestward through the forecast period, as a mid-latitude trough moves from the United States and significantly weakens the ridge. I'm quite willing to believe that the guidance is a bit slow with the turn; it seems as if they want to weaken the northern portions of the ridge and allow the storm to swing farther westward, but still turn northwest well in advance of the Caribbean. This makes some sense, but if the ridge is weakened, the high pressure center will be lowered, and the periphreal will tighten closer to the center, so I'm much inclined to go right of all the guidance. UKMET most closely resembles the likely situation, except that in the 120 hour period, it wants to carry the storm back on a west-northwestward track as a new ridge forms over the western Atlantic. At the same time, no other model shows a new ridge; therefore, a movement northwestward then nearly north at the end of the forecast period is most logical. The forecast track reflects this, moving right of all the guidance, and taking the storm nearly northward at the end of the forecast period. In addition, due to the weakening of the ridge, the forward speed is slowed after 48 hours. I would not be surprised to see some westward component added to the movement after the forecast period--in perhaps seven days--as the ridge builds back westward; however, at around this time, a new trough will allow the storm to resume its direction northward and eventually northeastward.

The intensity forecast calls for modest intensification through 72 hours. SSTs are warm, and shear values are about 10 knots vertical from 15kts surface. Therefore, no explosive development is expected. Additionally, the center of circulation remains rather broad, and the field of this storm is rather large, so I am simply not inclined to intensify this too fast, but I do call for a hurricane in 72 hours. As the storm moves northwestward later in the forecast period, it will encounter shear from an upper level low currently centered near 28N 58W; therefore, a leveling out in intensity is shown, and slight weakening is indicated between 96 and 120 hours. Vertical shear in the area that the storm is forecasted to move into averages about 30kts, and the upper level low channeling and inducing the wind flow will remain intact throughout the forecast period. The forecast ends with a 65kt hurricane, primarily in case further intensification than forecasted occurs earlier in the period, but if this forecast does hold up, I would not be surprised to see the system weaken to perhaps 50 to 60kts in 120 hours.

INIT 11.5N 38.7W 35KTS
12HR 11.9N 41.5W 45KTS
24HR 12.2N 44.1W 50KTS
36HR 13.0N 46.6W 55KTS
48HR 15.0N 48.4W 60KTS
72HR 18.6N 49.5W 70KTS
96HR 22.4N 50.7W 70KTS
120HR 25.9N 51.0W 65KTS

Experimental Shear/Dry Air Model (See information <A HREF="http://www.nencweather.com/climopresentationweb.ppt)here.)

INIT 1008mb
12HR 1004mb
24HR 1000mb
36HR 999mb
48HR 998mb
72HR 996mb
96HR 996mb
120HR 998mb
Powell

Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 3

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 25, 2004

...Tropical depression continuing westward with little change in
strength...no immediate threat to land...

at 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 11.4 north...longitude 39.1 west or about
1515 miles...2440 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.

The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph...28 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or
Thursday.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.

Repeating the 11 am EDT position...11.4 N... 39.1 W. Movement
toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 3

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 25, 2004

Tropical Depression Six is looking a little ragged this morning.
While still organized into bands...the associated convection has
decreased significantly in depth and coverage since sunrise. The
reason for this is not clear...although the system may be ingesting
some of the dry air seen nearby in water vapor imagery. Satellite
intensity estimates are 35 kt from SAB...30 kt from TAFB...and 25
kt from AFWA. The initial intensity remains 30 kt.
The initial motion is now 275/15. The cyclone is currently south of
a subtropical ridge. Large-scale models indicate that a mid/
upper-level level low currently seen in water vapor imagery just
southeast of Nova Scotia will dive southeastward and weaken the
ridge from 48-96 hr and then lift out to the northeast. If this
verifies...it would allow the tropical depression to turn
northwestward after 24-36 hr...and then possibly turning more
westward by 120 hr as the ridge rebuilds to the north. The
dynamical models generally agree with this scenario. However...the
GFS has shifted its track considerably to the south and west of the
GFDL...UKMET...and NOGAPS. The official forecast track also shifts
to the left of the previous track...but not as far as the GFS. The
new track is along the western edge of the other dynamical models
in best agreement with the GFDL and the consensus models.
Other than the current ragged appearance...conditions generally
apepar favorable for the cyclone to intensify for the first 72-96
hr. The intensity forecast will call for slow strengthening for
the first 48 hr or so in agreement with the current organization
and trends...then call for faster development as the system nears
hurricane strength. After 72-96 hr...if the cyclone tracks as far
north as forecast...it may encounter westerly shear to the north of
the upper-level ridge forecast to lie east-west along 18-19n. That
would limit strengthening as indicated in the forecast. An
alternate scenario would be if the cyclone stays south of the ridge
axis...which would allow greater strengthening than currently
forecast.

Forecaster Beven

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 25/1500z 11.4n 39.1w 30 kt
12hr VT 26/0000z 11.8n 41.3w 35 kt
24hr VT 26/1200z 12.6n 43.7w 40 kt
36hr VT 27/0000z 13.5n 45.6w 45 kt
48hr VT 27/1200z 14.5n 47.2w 50 kt
72hr VT 28/1200z 16.5n 49.5w 65 kt
96hr VT 29/1200z 18.5n 52.0w 75 kt
120hr VT 30/1200z 20.5n 55.0w 75 kt

FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX (AL062004) ON 20040825 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040825 1200 040826 0000 040826 1200 040827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.3N 38.3W 11.9N 41.2W 12.7N 43.5W 13.6N 45.6W
BAMM 11.3N 38.3W 12.0N 40.9W 12.8N 42.9W 13.8N 44.5W
A98E 11.3N 38.3W 11.5N 41.3W 11.9N 44.3W 12.4N 47.1W
LBAR 11.3N 38.3W 12.0N 41.2W 12.9N 43.9W 13.9N 46.3W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 56KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040827 1200 040828 1200 040829 1200 040830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.4N 47.4W 15.4N 50.7W 15.6N 53.8W 14.8N 57.8W
BAMM 14.5N 46.0W 15.4N 48.6W 15.9N 51.1W 16.2N 54.6W
A98E 12.7N 49.7W 12.9N 54.0W 12.8N 58.0W 12.2N 62.5W
LBAR 14.7N 48.4W 16.3N 51.9W 17.0N 54.8W 16.6N 57.9W
SHIP 63KTS 74KTS 76KTS 74KTS
DSHP 63KTS 74KTS 76KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 38.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.1N LONM12 = 35.2W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 32.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

1500 UTC 8/25/2004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 FORECAST #2

This is an independent product

Based upon satellite imagery, Tropical Depression 6 has formed a significant amount of convection near its center, however, much of this convection has dimished this morning. Currently, the depression is in a favorable environment for strengthening, SHIPS brings this TD to hurricane strength in 48 hours, while GFDL intensifies the system even quicker bringing the system to hurricane strength in 36 hours.

Track reasoning remains unchanged. The cyclone should be steered by a large ridge to its north for a couple of days before encountering a weakness. This weakness is indicated by all models. The result will be a slowing and a turn to the north. Due to the further south initial position, this track forecat is further left of the previous forecast.

Initial intensity will be set to 30KT. SSM/I TPW data indicated an abundance of moisture in the surrounding environment and satellite imagery indicates little shear. Therefore, intensification into a hurricane is expected within the next 36-48 hours. After this, the intensity guidance levels off the intensity or weakens the storm slightly. This is when the system envounters the weakness. Therefore, only slight intensification is forecast between 48 and 72 hours, with a slight weakening afterwards.

Initial: 10.8N 38.2W 30KT
12 Hour: 11.8N 41.6W 35KT
24 Hour: 13.0N 44.1W 45KT
36 Hour: 14.2N 47.0W 55KT
48 Hour: 15.6N 49.8W 65KT
72 Hour: 18.0N 52.0W 70KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 20.0N 53.5W 70KT
120 Hour: 22.5N 55.5W 65KT

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040825 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040825 1800 040826 0600 040826 1800 040827 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 39.8W 12.2N 42.5W 13.3N 44.7W 14.3N 46.5W
BAMM 11.5N 39.8W 12.3N 42.1W 13.4N 44.0W 14.3N 45.7W
A98E 11.5N 39.8W 11.8N 42.8W 12.0N 45.8W 12.3N 48.6W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040827 1800 040828 1800 040829 1800 040830 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.1N 48.3W 16.2N 51.1W 15.9N 54.0W 15.1N 58.1W
BAMM 15.2N 47.3W 16.1N 49.8W 15.9N 52.0W 15.7N 55.4W
A98E 12.4N 51.2W 12.6N 55.4W 12.7N 59.5W 12.8N 64.4W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 39.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 36.8W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 33.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 20NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 40NM

First of all this storm is moving around 15 to 18 mph to the west. It has been on a track to the west or slightly north of west for the last 15 degrees. Since 25 west. It has moved very little north since then. The Gfs has shifted left every run since the 00z in now shows it skiming the northern leewards. What else is wrong with the gfs is it is moving at around 18 mph this thing is not going to slow down as much as the Gfs says. I say by tomarrow afternoon it will be around 45 maybe 46 west. This could just as easly fellow the southern hurricane models with this.

So this is my thinking it should not get pass 12 north intill 11pm tonight. Then should not pass 15 north intill nearing 60 west. I expect a cat1 hurricane with in the next 48 to 60 hours.

Tropical Storm Frances Advisory Number 4


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 25, 2004


...Tropical Depression Six becomes Tropical Storm Frances...no
immediate threat to land...

at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Frances was
located near latitude 11.6 north...longitude 40.5 west or about
1420 miles...2285 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.

Frances is moving toward the west near 17 mph...28 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph... 65
km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...11.6 N... 40.5 W. Movement
toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM EDT.

** WTNT41 KNHC 252034 ***
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2004

AFTER LOOKING RAGGED THIS MORNING...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A BAND WRAPPED AROUND THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
FRANCES WITH 35 KT WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/15. THE CYCLONE REMAINS SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT A MID/
UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF
NEWFOUNDLAND WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE FROM
48-96 HR...AND THEN LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. IF THIS VERIFIES...
IT WOULD ALLOW FRANCES TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HR...AND THEN
POSSIBLY TURNING MORE WESTWARD BY 120 HR AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO
THE NORTH. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE GFS TRACK REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS
THIS SCENARIO AND IS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND WEST OF ALL THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCEPT THE GFS.

CONDITIONS GENERALLY APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE
FIRST 72-96 HR...WITH THE ONLY SEEMING NEGATIVE FACTOR BEING THE
DRY AIR SURROUNDING FRANCES IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 36 HR OR SO
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND TRENDS...THEN CALL
FOR FASTER DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM NEARS HURRICANE STRENGTH.
AFTER 72-96 HR...IF THE CYCLONE TRACKS AS FAR NORTH AS
FORECAST...IT MAY ENCOUNTER WESTERLY SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO LIE EAST- WEST ALONG 18-19N. THAT
WOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. A
CONTINUING ALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD BE IF THE CYCLONE STAYS SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW GREATER STRENGTHENING THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.


FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 11.6N 40.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 12.0N 42.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 13.0N 45.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 13.9N 46.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 14.9N 48.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 17.0N 50.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 18.5N 52.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 20.5N 55.5W 80 KT

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040826 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040826 0000 040826 1200 040827 0000 040827 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.7N 41.1W 12.7N 43.6W 13.9N 45.6W 15.0N 47.6W
BAMM 11.7N 41.1W 12.7N 43.3W 13.8N 45.2W 14.8N 47.0W
A98E 11.7N 41.1W 12.2N 43.9W 12.8N 46.6W 13.5N 49.2W
LBAR 11.7N 41.1W 12.6N 43.8W 13.8N 46.4W 14.9N 48.7W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 51KTS 57KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 51KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040828 0000 040829 0000 040830 0000 040831 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.9N 49.3W 16.9N 52.3W 16.9N 55.6W 16.9N 59.7W
BAMM 15.7N 48.6W 16.4N 51.4W 16.4N 54.4W 16.6N 58.3W
A98E 14.1N 51.5W 14.8N 55.9W 14.8N 60.3W 13.8N 65.0W
LBAR 15.7N 50.7W 16.5N 53.6W 16.3N 56.9W 16.2N 60.8W
SHIP 63KTS 75KTS 79KTS 78KTS
DSHP 63KTS 75KTS 79KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 41.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.3N LONM12 = 38.3W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 35.2W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 20NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 40NM

0300 UTC 8/26/2004 TROPICAL STORM FRANCES FORECAST #3

This is an independent product

After looking quite ragged throughout the day, deep convection has returned to the inner-core region. A TMI pass from about 2000 this afternoon showed some 30KT winds outside of the convection. Since then, the convection has returned near the center. Dvorak estimates remain at 35KT; however, based upon the increase in convection, and morning QS uncontaminated winds of 40KT, the initial intensity is being set at 40KT.

The track guidance has continued to shift to the left. It now appears that the weakness that is dropping to the south from Canada near 60W is not going to be enough to steer the system to the north. Global model guidance from 12Z suggests that after a NW motion, the track will bend back to the west as a second ridge builds behind the weakness. Some of the 0Z track guidance suggests that in 5 days, Frances will be nearing the Leeward Islands. Taking this all into consideration, this forecast needs to be adjusted significantly to the left of the previous; however, this forecast still keeps the center north of the islands. The main reason is to not deviate too much from the previous forecast, which is probably the best course of action since this is about 5 days away from any possible impact on these islands. New forecast is 1.5 degrees south of the previous forecast and 2.5 west at 120 hours.

WV imagery shows a possible SAL surge approaching the cyclone from the east. If this does overtake Frances, Frances will likely quickly open up into a wave. However, for now, this forecast assumes that this scenario will not occur. Instead, with favorable shear conditions, intensifictaion into a hurricane is forecast within the next 36 hours. A peak intensity of 75KT is forecast for 72 hours. There are indications that there may be some strong shear in about 5 days. However, this is very uncertain; thus, the best course of action is to maintain the intensity at 75KT from 72-120 hours.

Initial (0000 UTC): 11.7N 41.1W 40KT
12 Hour: 12.5N 44.1W 45KT
24 Hour: 13.4N 46.8W 55KT
36 Hour: 14.4N 49.0W 65KT
48 Hour: 15.8N 51.0W 70KT
72 Hour: 18.3N 53.5W 75KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 20.3N 55.5W 75KT
120 Hour: 21.0N 58.5W 75KT

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

Tropical Storm Frances Advisory Number 5

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 25, 2004

...Frances over the tropical Atlantic...no immediate threat to
land...

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm
Frances was located near latitude 11.8 north...longitude 41.7 west
or about 1340 miles...2155 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.

Frances is moving toward the west near 16 mph...26 km/hr...and a
gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next
24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
... 95 km from the center.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...11.8 N... 41.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am EDT.

Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Frances Discussion Number 5

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 25, 2004

Satellite images this evening show little change in the overall
cloud pattern of Frances. Banding features have not become more
pronounced...and Dvorak T-numbers remain at 2.5 from all three
agencies...so the intensity remains at 35 kt for this advisory.
Upper-level outflow is well-defined except to the east and vertical
shear should remain low along the path of the tropical cyclone for
the next 2-3 days. So...in spite of the recent levelling off in
the development of the tropical cyclone...intensification is
likely. Later in the period...the upper-level winds may become
less favorable as increasing westerly shear is indicated by the
latest ships output for 96 and 72 hours. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one and to ships...as well as
the FSU superensemble.
There has been a slight slowing of the forward motion...now 280/14.
A mid-latitude 500 mb trough is forecast to drop into the central
Atlantic over the next couple of days. This feature is certainly
at too high a latitude to directly impact the steering of Frances.
However...the trough weakens the subtropical ridge to the north of
Frances which should cause a further slowing of the forward speed
and a gradual turn to the right. Amongst the guidance suite...two
tracks...the GFS and the U.K. Met...are outliers. The GFS is well
to the south and west of the other dynamical models whereas the
U.K. Met. Is well northeast of the consensus. The official track
forecast lies between these extremes and is very similar to the
latest GFDL...GFDN...NOGAPS...and conu consensus forecasts.

Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/0300z 11.8n 41.7w 35 kt
12hr VT 26/1200z 12.5n 43.8w 45 kt
24hr VT 27/0000z 13.5n 46.0w 50 kt
36hr VT 27/1200z 14.5n 47.5w 55 kt
48hr VT 28/0000z 15.5n 49.0w 60 kt
72hr VT 29/0000z 17.3n 51.5w 70 kt
96hr VT 30/0000z 19.0n 54.0w 80 kt
120hr VT 31/0000z 20.5n 56.5w 80 kt

000
WHXX01 KWBC 260642
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040826 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040826 0600 040826 1800 040827 0600 040827 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.3N 43.0W 13.2N 45.4W 14.1N 47.6W 15.0N 49.6W
BAMM 12.3N 43.0W 13.2N 45.4W 14.2N 47.4W 15.0N 49.4W
A98E 12.3N 43.0W 13.1N 46.2W 13.7N 49.2W 14.2N 52.0W
LBAR 12.3N 43.0W 13.2N 45.7W 14.5N 48.4W 15.6N 50.7W
SHIP 50KTS 64KTS 75KTS 83KTS
DSHP 50KTS 64KTS 75KTS 83KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040828 0600 040829 0600 040830 0600 040831 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.7N 51.4W 16.4N 54.5W 16.5N 58.0W 16.7N 62.5W
BAMM 15.7N 51.0W 16.3N 54.0W 16.4N 57.2W 16.8N 61.3W
A98E 14.5N 54.6W 14.6N 59.0W 14.5N 63.1W 14.0N 67.9W
LBAR 16.4N 52.7W 17.3N 55.6W 17.1N 58.8W 16.9N 62.6W
SHIP 90KTS 97KTS 94KTS 90KTS
DSHP 90KTS 97KTS 94KTS 90KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 43.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 39.8W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 36.8W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 998MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 60NM

TROPICAL STORM FRANCES ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N 41.4W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062004



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 26.08.2004 11.8N 41.4W MODERATE

12UTC 26.08.2004 12.7N 44.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.08.2004 13.7N 46.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 27.08.2004 14.7N 48.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 28.08.2004 16.2N 49.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.08.2004 17.9N 50.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.08.2004 19.6N 51.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.08.2004 21.2N 52.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 30.08.2004 22.7N 53.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 30.08.2004 23.1N 55.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 31.08.2004 23.7N 56.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2004 23.9N 58.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2004 24.3N 60.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

017
WTNT41 KNHC 260837
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 26 2004

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A WELL-DEFINED CURVED
CLOUD BAND...DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND GOOD OUTFLOW. IN
FACT...THERE WERE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A BANDING-TYPE EYE WAS
TRYING TO FORM IN EARLIER IMAGES. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS BUT IF THE FORMATION OF THE EYE MATERIALIZES
...WINDS COULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ESTIMATED. BECAUSE THE
SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THIS
FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS WHICH BRING
FRANCES TO NEAR 95 KNOTS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...A TURN OF THE
CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST COULD
BRING FRANCES TO A LESS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15
KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORCING FRANCES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THEREAFTER...ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OR WEAKENS...MODELS ARE
UNANIMOUSLY REDEVELOPING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FRANCES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT ON A TRACK BACK TO WEST-NORTHWEST
OR EVEN TOWARD THE WEST DEPENDING OF THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A STRONGER
RIDGE AND CONSEQUENTLY MOVE THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE WEST NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE UK AND THE NOGAPS DEVELOP A
WEAKER RIDGE ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE WELL-NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO OPTIONS. IT
IS SIGNIFICANT THAT EACH NEW RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAS A
FORECAST TRACK FARTHER TO WEST...SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THERE
WILL BE INTERESTING DAYS AHEAD.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 12.6N 43.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 13.3N 45.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 14.5N 48.0W 70 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 16.0N 50.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 17.0N 51.5W 90 KT
72HR VT 29/0600Z 18.5N 53.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 30/0600Z 19.5N 55.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 31/0600Z 20.9N 59.0W 90 KT

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040826 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040826 1200 040827 0000 040827 1200 040828 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.8N 44.3W 14.0N 47.1W 15.2N 49.7W 16.3N 51.8W
BAMM 12.8N 44.3W 14.1N 47.0W 15.4N 49.5W 16.5N 51.6W
A98E 12.8N 44.3W 13.6N 47.2W 14.3N 50.1W 15.3N 52.7W
LBAR 12.8N 44.3W 14.1N 47.0W 15.4N 49.5W 16.3N 51.6W
SHIP 60KTS 75KTS 86KTS 93KTS
DSHP 60KTS 75KTS 86KTS 93KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040828 1200 040829 1200 040830 1200 040831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 53.7W 18.3N 56.5W 18.5N 59.4W 19.0N 62.3W
BAMM 17.4N 53.5W 18.3N 56.3W 18.6N 59.2W 19.3N 62.1W
A98E 16.3N 55.0W 17.1N 59.5W 16.1N 63.8W 13.9N 67.7W
LBAR 17.1N 53.5W 17.5N 56.4W 17.2N 59.9W 18.3N 63.6W
SHIP 98KTS 103KTS 97KTS 90KTS
DSHP 98KTS 103KTS 97KTS 90KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 44.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 41.4W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 38.3W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 65NM RD34SE =

Better defined is an understatement with this system. It maybe a minimal hurricane as early as 11 AM EDT this morning. With the appearance of an eye from time to time this morning and great outflow, we got ourselves a potentially dangerous hurricane to come over the next several days. The track is also looking threatening for folks along the eastern seaboard as a trough over the central Atlantic tries to lift up, hence a subtropical high could become better established over the central Atlantic and be positioned north of the tropical cyclone, thus a further westward track later in the forecast. Should this actually occur, it could get real interesting later next week and into the Labor Day Weekend for the eastern seaboard.

Jim

1500 UTC 8/26/2004 TROPICAL STORM FRANCES FORECAST #4

This is an independent product

Frances nears hurricane intensity. Overnight, Frances has become much better organized, with an eye like feature attempting to form. Satellite estimates suggests that Frances is a near cat 1 hurricane strength, and is likely to steadily strenghten. Currently, the tropical storm is in a favorable environment, warm waters and low shear. SHIPS strenghtens Frances to a hurricane in less than 12 hours and brings the systewm to 100 KT in about 2 days. This intensity forecast closely resembles the SHIPS guidance.

Frances is currently tracking WNW near 12 kt, this motion is likely to continue, however a slow down in forward speed is likely. Track guidance is split, over the past few runs, much of the guidance has shifted left, bringing more of a threat to the Caribbean islands, however, the UKMET remains well to the right. This track forecast has shifted well to the left following the CMC and GFS solutions, which determines that a strong ridge will build back in place not allowing the system to track to far to the north.

Initial (1200 UTC): 12.8N 44.3W 60KT
12 Hour: 13.9N 46.8W 75KT
24 Hour: 15.0N 49.3W 85KT
36 Hour: 16.0N 51.5W 95KT
48 Hour: 17.1N 53.5W 100KT
72 Hour: 18.7N 56.5W 100KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 19.5N 59.5W 95KT
120 Hour: 20.2N 62.0W 95KT

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

Back to Home Page

Tropical Storm Frances Forecast/Advisory Number 7

Statement as of 15:00Z on August 26, 2004

tropical storm center located near 13.1n 45.0w at 26/1500z
position accurate within 25 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 15 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 990 mb
Max sustained winds 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
50 kt....... 30ne 20se 20sw 30nw.
34 kt....... 65ne 50se 50sw 65nw.
12 ft seas.. 70ne 70se 70sw 70nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 13.1n 45.0w at 26/1500z
at 26/1200z center was located near 12.8n 44.3w

forecast valid 27/0000z 14.0n 47.0w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt... 35ne 25se 25sw 35nw.
34 kt... 70ne 50se 50sw 70nw.

Forecast valid 27/1200z 15.2n 49.2w
Max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt... 40ne 30se 30sw 40nw.
34 kt... 80ne 65se 65sw 80nw.

Forecast valid 28/0000z 16.4n 51.1w
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.
64 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
50 kt... 50ne 40se 40sw 50nw.
34 kt... 90ne 80se 80sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 28/1200z 17.5n 52.3w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
50 kt... 55ne 55se 55sw 55nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 29/1200z 18.6n 54.0w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
50 kt... 55ne 55se 55sw 55nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 100nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 30/1200z 20.0n 57.0w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.

Outlook valid 31/1200z 21.0n 61.0w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 13.1n 45.0w

next advisory at 26/2100z

forecaster Stewart

322
WTNT41 KNHC 261447
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 26 2004

FRANCES HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...
AS NOTED BY THE TIGHT COILING OF BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER
CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND AN OCCASIONAL HINT OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE.
A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 WAS OBTAINED FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...BANDING FEATURES AND INNER-CORE
CONVECTION HAVE IMPROVED SINCE THE 12Z FIXES...SO I HAVE CONTINUED
THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY OF GOING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE INDICATING. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD
IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS BECOMING MORE CIRCULAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/15. FRANCES HAS BASICALLY REMAINED ON
TRACK THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AFTER 36 HOURS. THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF TAKE
FRANCES MORE NORTHWESTWARD THOUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEREAS
THE GFDL...GFS...AND THE CANADIAN MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EVEN WESTWARD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES LIE IN
HOW MUCH EROSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OCCURS NORTH OF FRANCES
IN 36-72 HOURS AS A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DIGS SOUTHWARD. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODEL SHOW MORE
EROSION OF THE RIDGE...WHILE THE GFS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN MODELS
LIFT OUT THE UPPER-LOW MORE QUICKLY...WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO
BUILD BACK WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 72 HOURS. THE
PAST 24 HOUR TREND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE
UPPER-LOW HAS PROBABLY PUSHED ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS IT CAN...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE GFS-GFDL-CANADIAN SCENARIO OF A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK BY 96 HOURS. THE PAST 4 GFDL RUNS HAVE SUCCESSIVELY SHIFTED
THE TRACK MORE WESTWARD WITH EACH RUN...WHILE THE GFS HAS A LEFT OF
TRACK BIAS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LEFT OF THE LATEST GFDL RUN...BUT
NOT AS FAR WEST OR AS FAST AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS.

FRANCES MAY BE ON A FAST-TRACK IN ITS DEVELOPMENT PROCESS...BUT I
WOULD PREFER TO WAIT AND SEE IF ANY DRY AIR ON THE EAST SIDE GETS
WRAPPED INTO THE CENTER. HOWEVER...IF A DISTINCT EYE APPEARS LATER
TODAY...THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AND ALSO MAKING FRANCES A
MAJOR HURRICANE IN 48-72 HOURS LIKE THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS ARE
INDICATING...WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 13.1N 45.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 14.0N 47.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 15.2N 49.2W 80 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 16.4N 51.1W 90 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 17.5N 52.3W 95 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 18.6N 54.0W 95 KT
96HR VT 30/1200Z 20.0N 57.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 31/1200Z 21.0N 61.0W 95 KT

Tropical Cyclone Reports
Hurricane Frances Forecast 3
1:00PM EDT THURS AUG 26 2004

Although these forecasts have been shown reliable, first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center.

...Frances rapidly intensifying...

...Based on 1615 UTC images...

T-numbers have increased to 3.5 this morning; however, these readings are somewhat old, and visible satellite images show a continually improving eye forming. Banding features are excellent, and outflow is excellent in all directions. Iniital intensity is set at 65kts for this forecast, making Frances a Category 1 hurricane.

The track forecast will finally give in to model guidance significantly, but will remain to the right of most of it. The current heading of Frances is as forecast, and the hurricane is actually right of the previous forecast; however, the error obviously sits in the degree to which yesterday's predictions weakened the southwestern boundary of the ridge. Model guidance today clearly shows redevelopment of the ridge farther west, which would result in a more westward movement after 72 hours. Additionally, the trough over the western Atlantic, which is weakening the ridge, will not drastically weaken the southwest periphreal of the ridge. However, some weakening will occur, and a turn to the northwest is predicted--but not as sharply as forecasted previously; in fact this turn has already initiated. After 72 hours, the subtropical ridge will recenter farther east, and steering currents will guide the system to the west-northwest. This is also reflected in the track forecast, which brings the system past 60 degrees west and well over 20 north latitude in 120 hours. Afterward, predictions are rather clean for at least another 48 hours, as the west-northwestward movement will persist as the ridge builds back in and slides to the southeast over the central Atlantic--after which a turn to the northwest will likely commence near roughly 70 degrees west longitude--give or take an important few. The farther west the hurricane travels---the easier it will move northward: 1) The subtropical ridge will move eastward, and will not be unusually strong; therefore, the storm could ride up the ridge; and 2) Any CONUS trough could easily weaken the entire eastern periphreal of the ridge and force a storm northward. Currently, any threat to the Caribbean is unlikely, and in the next seven days, no threat to any land is imminent.

Since the track forecast is adjusted to the left, the intensity forecast must become more aggressive. Surface westerlies are around 15kts throughout the entire forecast period, and vertical shear values will definitely remain low through 72 hours--at only 5 to 10kts. Depending on the track forecast, intensity after 72 hours is somewhat uncertain. Intensity is maintained through 96 hours, as the heaviest shear is forecast to channel northward through the end of the forecast period, which should allow for some room for the hurricane to slide south of the shear and continue intensification. Even if the northern half experiences heavy shear, the outflow could be beneficial if the core of the storm remains under favorable conditions. However, this is 96 hours ahead, and forecasting the location of highest shear is more difficult than panning out the tracks and synopses. In addition, the track forecast remains on the right end of model guidance, so should the track east to the left, intensification would be more likely. Therefore, I maintain intensification throughout the entire forecast period, making Frances a very powerful Category 4 hurricane at the end of the forecast period. SSTs are very warm--the deciding factor will be shear after 72 hours.

INIT 13.3N 45.3W 65KTS
12HR 14.4N 47.5W 75KTS
24HR 15.9N 49.8W 85KTS
36HR 17.1N 51.4W 95KTS
48HR 18.6N 52.8W 100KTS
72HR 21.3N 54.6W 110KTS
96HR 22.8N 57.6W 115KTS
120HR 23.9N 61.4W 120KTS

Experimental Shear/Dry Air Model (See information here.)

INIT 990mb
12HR 986mb
24HR 982mb
36HR 978mb
48HR 974mb
72HR 968mb
96HR 960mb
120HR 952mb

Powell

000
WHXX01 KWBC 261844
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040826 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040826 1800 040827 0600 040827 1800 040828 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.4N 45.7W 14.5N 48.0W 15.5N 49.9W 16.5N 51.5W
BAMM 13.4N 45.7W 14.5N 48.0W 15.6N 50.0W 16.5N 51.8W
A98E 13.4N 45.7W 14.6N 48.2W 15.5N 50.7W 16.3N 53.1W
LBAR 13.4N 45.7W 14.6N 48.1W 15.9N 50.2W 16.9N 52.0W
SHIP 70KTS 82KTS 91KTS 94KTS
DSHP 70KTS 82KTS 91KTS 94KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040828 1800 040829 1800 040830 1800 040831 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.3N 52.9W 18.0N 55.6W 18.7N 58.9W 19.8N 62.0W
BAMM 17.2N 53.3W 17.5N 55.9W 18.0N 59.2W 19.1N 62.3W
A98E 16.7N 55.5W 16.3N 60.5W 14.7N 65.4W 12.6N 69.8W
LBAR 17.5N 53.4W 17.6N 56.8W 17.2N 61.1W 18.1N 64.8W
SHIP 97KTS 100KTS 96KTS 92KTS
DSHP 97KTS 100KTS 96KTS 92KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 45.7W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 42.9W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 39.8W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 983MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 55NM RD34SW = 55NM RD34NW = 70NM

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 8


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2004



Frances has continued to become better organized with a small 10-15
nmi diameter banding eye feature occasionally appearing. Satellite
intensity is t4.0...or 65 kt...from both TAFB and SAB...and the
trend of going slightly higher than the satellite estimates are
indicating is being continued on this advisory. Upper-level outflow
is good to excellent in all quadrants and continues to improve.

The initial motion is 295/14. Frances has remained on track and the
majority of the NHC model guidance is in much better agreement now
...Except for the NOGAPS model...which appears to be a sharp
right-of-track outlier. In fact...the latest UKMET run has shifted
much farther west while the GFS has shifted a little to the right.
Those two models...plus the GFDL...have now converged on top of the
previous forecast track through 72 hours and then only diverge
slightly away from the 12z track after that. Water vapor imagery
suggests the Canadian Maritimes low appears to have bottomed out
and is shifting slowly eastward...so only a slight weakening of the
subtropical ridge to the north of Frances is expected in the 36-72h
time period. Afterwards...all of the global models...even NOGAPS...
is forecasting the mid-latitude flow across the northern U.S. And
the North Atlantic to become strongly zonal. With such strong
westerly high-latitude flow becoming established...a corresponding
response should be a strengthening of the Bermuda-Azores ridge
westward to perhaps the U.S. East Coast by 120 hours. That pattern
should help to turn Frances more westward after 96 hours. As such
...The forecast track is just an extension of the previous track.
Since Frances appears to have mixed out any dry air intrusions...has
a rather small eye...and good outflow established...then additional
rapid intensification seems likely for at least another 12 hours or
so. After that...the intensification trend is leveled since at
least one concentric eyewall cycle should occur in the next 72
hours due to the current small diameter eye. Timing any additional
eyewall cycles with any kind of skill just is not possible...but
some additional strengthening may still occur since the hurricane
will be passing over 29c SSTs...about 1c above average...by 96hr.
The intensity forecast is a blend of the SHIPS and GFDL models.
Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/2100z 13.7n 46.4w 70 kt
12hr VT 27/0600z 14.6n 48.1w 85 kt
24hr VT 27/1800z 15.8n 50.2w 95 kt
36hr VT 28/0600z 16.9n 51.7w 100 kt
48hr VT 28/1800z 17.8n 52.8w 100 kt
72hr VT 29/1800z 19.0n 55.0w 105 kt
96hr VT 30/1800z 20.5n 58.5w 105 kt
120hr VT 31/1800z 21.5n 62.5w 105 kt

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040827 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040827 0000 040827 1200 040828 0000 040828 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.8N 46.8W 14.9N 48.9W 16.1N 50.7W 17.1N 52.0W
BAMM 13.8N 46.8W 14.9N 49.0W 16.0N 50.8W 16.9N 52.2W
A98E 13.8N 46.8W 14.6N 49.3W 15.5N 51.7W 16.6N 53.8W
LBAR 13.8N 46.8W 14.8N 49.1W 16.2N 51.0W 17.1N 52.7W
SHIP 75KTS 86KTS 94KTS 97KTS
DSHP 75KTS 86KTS 94KTS 97KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040829 0000 040830 0000 040831 0000 040901 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.8N 53.2W 17.9N 55.7W 17.7N 59.3W 18.2N 62.4W
BAMM 17.4N 53.3W 17.2N 55.5W 17.3N 58.9W 18.5N 61.9W
A98E 17.1N 56.1W 16.4N 61.2W 15.2N 66.4W 14.5N 71.1W
LBAR 17.6N 54.2W 17.4N 57.4W 16.7N 62.1W 16.8N 66.3W
SHIP 100KTS 100KTS 94KTS 87KTS
DSHP 100KTS 100KTS 94KTS 87KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 46.8W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 44.3W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 41.4W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 980MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 75NM

thanks for the info. watch out florida

Hurricane Frances Forecast 4
9:45PM EDT THURS AUG 26 2004

Although these forecasts have been shown reliable, first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center.

...Frances strengthens; right on track...

...Based on 0045 UTC images...

T-numbers increased to 4.0 this afternoon, and satellite presentation has continued to improve. Convection around the eye appeared to be deepening in visible images before sunsed. Outflow in all directions is excellent. Banding features are very organized throughout the storm. Initial intensity is set at 70kts, based on satellite estimates.

Of the NHC model set, all guidance from the last run irrelevantly took the storm northwestward then sharply westward or west-southwestward, so this guidance will be thrown out, much of which has been making such shifts through the past day. UKMET has been the right outlier throughout the past few runs, and GFDL--which has also maintained a reasonable track has slid over to correspond closer with UKMET. This afternoon's forecast nearly nailed the movement of the storm, and a turn a little more northwestward is expected over the next 24 hours, as the storm rides a weakening periphreal of the subtropical ridge. The forecast path is very similar to the previous forecast path, bringing the system to roughly 25N 65W after 120 hours. Between 48 and 72 hours, the trough currently weakening this ridge will have moved into the far North Atlantic in the form of an extratropical cyclone, and the ridge will commence re-positioning and intensification. This will cause a movement to the west-northwest again, which is indicated slightly to the left of the previous forecast, in rough correspondence with UKMET.

Intensity forecast remains aggressive. Conditions are currently very favorable for development as Frances moves through 5 to 10kt vertical shear and warm SSTs. Conditions will definitely remain favorable over the next 48 hours; however, between 60 and 96 hours, the storm may encounter some higher vertical shear of up to 30kts. However, this shear is expected to turn sharply southwest to northeast, and not significantly effect this storm, even on a track above 20 degrees north. Behind the trough, vertical shear values are very low--around 5 to 10kts, and intensification should continue. This is indicated in the intensity forecast, which is simply an extension of the previous forecast, and calls for 125kts in 120 hours. Of course, if Frances encounters vertical shear, the intensity forecast will be unordinarily generous.

INIT 14.0N 47.0W 70KTS
12HR 15.0N 49.1W 80KTS
24HR 16.4N 51.0W 90KTS
36HR 17.9N 52.8W 100KTS
48HR 19.4N 53.9W 105KTS
72HR 21.3N 55.9W 110KTS
96HR 22.8N 58.9W 115KTS
120HR 23.9N 63.0W 125KTS

Experimental Shear/Dry Air Model (See information here.)

INIT 983mb
12HR 979mb
24HR 975mb
36HR 971mb
48HR 967mb
72HR 959mb
96HR 951mb
120HR 943mb

Powell

0300 UTC 8/26/2004 HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST #5

This is an independent product

SSD Dvorak numbers are lower; however, the satellite appearance is much improved from just a few hours ago with an eye now visible. I estimate the intensity to be 85KT; however, since this system is over the open ocean, lets split the difference and go with 75KT.

Track guidance, except for the NOGAPS and its derived runs, which have been disregarded, continues to show a slight leftward adjustment. Since there is not going to be any major trough interaction, some credence has to be given to the deep BAM. There still should be some pole-ward movement due to the weakness; however, it is clear now that the earlier models were overdoing the weakness. In fact, models now show a large ridge building in behind the weakness. They may still be overdoing the weakness as the latest WV imagery shows that the UL that was supposed to weaken the ridge is located not too far south of Newfoundland and is not making any meaningful southward progress. Taking this all into consideration, yet another leftward adjustment is needed with this forecast, now bringing the system very close to the northern Islands. I would go even farther south, but I prefer to wait for one more model run before indicating an actual landfall.

Conditions are quite favorable for rapid to explosive intensification. A 15KT wind increase is indicated through the first 2 12 hour periods. Afterwards, the GFD models suggest little change or some weakening. This forecast does not go along with the weakening as there is little to no shear and the dry air is not being entrained. Near the end of the period, even global models such as the UKMET are going with a very strong system. Thus, after a leveling off in the middle, further intensification is being depicted at the end of the period, into a category 4 hurricane with 120KT winds. Eye wall replacement cycles are not factored into this forecast.

Long term, models suggest a second weakness may form off of the U.S. East Coast in a few days. However, at this time, this weakness does not look to be enough of one to turn this storm away from the coast. Thus, East Coast residents should be monitoring the progress of this system

Initial: 13.8N 46.8W 75KT
12 Hour: 14.8N 49.6W 90KT
24 Hour: 15.8N 52.4W 105KT
36 Hour: 16.8N 55.2W 105KT
48 Hour: 17.7N 57.5W 105KT
72 Hour: 19.0N 61.0W 105KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 20.0N 65.0W 110KT
120 Hour: 21.0N 68.5W 120KT

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 9

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2004

Based on satellite imagery...the hurricane continues to intensify.
The cloud pattern is now quite symmetrical and there have been
hints of an eye...or warm spot...on the infrared images.
Upper-level outflow is becoming even more well-defined...and global
model 200 mb wind forecasts show a large anticyclone over/around
Frances for the next several days. Therefore...additional
strengthening seems inevitable. The official intensity forecast is
the same as that from the last advisory. This is similar to the
SHIPS guidance through 72 hours...and a little above ships at 4 and
5 days. The latest FSU superensemble intensity prediction is
slightly higher than the official forecast.
Current motion estimate...295/13...is a little slower than in the
previous advisory. A further decrease in forward speed is likely
as a mid-latitude trough weakens the subtropical ridge over the
central Atlantic during the next couple of days. This trough
should lift out of the picture by 72 hours. Thereafter...a
leftward turn of the hurricane seems likely...but how much of a
turn will occur is unclear. Numerical guidance at 500 mb does not
show the ridge building back in very strongly over the west-central
Atlantic by 4-5 days. Therefore the forward speed will probably
be slow in the latter part of the period. The official track
forecast is similar to that from the previous advisory...just
slightly slower. This is quite close to the latest dynamical track
model consensus...conu.
It should be stressed that 4- and 5-day forecast points can easily
be in error by several hundred miles.

Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 27/0300z 14.0n 47.3w 75 kt
12hr VT 27/1200z 15.0n 49.1w 85 kt
24hr VT 28/0000z 16.3n 51.2w 95 kt
36hr VT 28/1200z 17.5n 52.8w 100 kt
48hr VT 29/0000z 18.4n 54.0w 100 kt
72hr VT 30/0000z 20.0n 56.5w 105 kt
96hr VT 31/0000z 21.5n 59.0w 105 kt
120hr VT 01/0000z 22.0n 62.0w 105 kt

11 P.M. AST 8/26/2004 HURRICANE FRANCES UPDATE #9

This is an independent product

Residents of the Lesser Antilles need to monitor the progress of Hurricane Frances very closely as there is the potential for some impacts from Frances early next week.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Frances is located near 14.0N and 47.3W. This places the center about 900 miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles. The motion is to the WNW near 16 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue, bringing the system just north of the Lesser Antilles early next week

Maximum winds are now estimated to be near 90 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 977mb. Continued intensification is expected and Frances is expected to become a major hurricane by this time tomorrow.

Next Update: 6 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

000
WHXX01 KWBC 270641
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040827 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040827 0600 040827 1800 040828 0600 040828 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.2N 48.0W 15.2N 50.4W 16.3N 52.5W 17.3N 54.3W
BAMM 14.2N 48.0W 15.3N 50.4W 16.4N 52.5W 17.3N 54.2W
A98E 14.2N 48.0W 15.0N 50.5W 15.9N 53.0W 16.9N 55.4W
LBAR 14.2N 48.0W 15.2N 50.2W 16.6N 52.2W 17.8N 53.9W
SHIP 85KTS 93KTS 97KTS 100KTS
DSHP 85KTS 93KTS 97KTS 100KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040829 0600 040830 0600 040831 0600 040901 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.7N 55.9W 17.5N 59.5W 17.2N 63.9W 17.4N 68.2W
BAMM 17.6N 55.5W 17.2N 58.8W 17.2N 63.1W 18.0N 67.2W
A98E 17.2N 58.0W 16.3N 63.8W 14.8N 69.3W 12.8N 74.0W
LBAR 18.4N 55.4W 18.1N 59.4W 17.6N 64.7W 18.8N 68.6W
SHIP 103KTS 101KTS 93KTS 83KTS
DSHP 103KTS 101KTS 93KTS 83KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 48.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 45.6W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 42.9W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 975MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 75NM

443
WTNT41 KNHC 270838
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004

FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE 0600Z THERE WAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS GAVE THE
APPEARANCE OF A STRONGER HURRICANE SINCE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS WERE
NEAR 5.0 AND A SUBJECTIVE CLASSIFICATION WOULD GIVE A 5.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE DURING THAT PERIOD. AT THE CLASSIFICATION TIME...06Z...
THE EYE BECAME LESS DEFINED AND CONVECTION WEAKENED A LITTLE. THIS
RESULTED IN THE SAME 4.5 T-NUMBERS THAT WERE PROVIDED AT 00Z.
THEREAFTER...MORE RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A RAGGED EYE SO...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS. THE OUTFLOW
REMAINS VERY WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE OCEAN IS WARM. IN ADDITION...
GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER/AROUND
FRANCES WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE HURRICANE EXTENDING UP TO 200
MB. THIS PATTERN IS COMMON IN INTENSE HURRICANES. THEREFORE...
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
ASSUMES THAT THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES CURRENTLY
OBSERVED IN THE AREA WHERE THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN 3
DAYS WILL WEAKEN AS SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS.

FRANCES APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295
DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TEMPORARILY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND PERHAPS A TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST. IN FACT...THE HURRICANE MAY BE DOING SO AS WE SPEAK.
HOWEVER...UNANIMOULSY ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE REBUILDING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE HURRICANE TO MAKE A
LEFT TURN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL CONTROL HOW MUCH THE HURRICANE WILL TURN WESTWARD. THE
GFS AND THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING
THE HURRICANE WESTWARD BASICALLY ALONG 20 NORTH FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE UK AND THE GFDL HAVE ALSO SHIFTED THE TRACK MORE
TO THE WEST BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
HALFWAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE UK MODELS. THE TREND OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS HURRICANE MUST BE MONITORED VERY CAREFULLY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ONCE AGAIN...IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT 4- AND 5-DAY FORECAST POINTS
CAN EASILY BE IN ERROR BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 14.5N 48.4W 80 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 15.3N 50.3W 85 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 16.5N 52.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 18.0N 53.5W 100 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 19.0N 55.5W 100 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 20.5N 58.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 31/0600Z 21.0N 61.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 01/0600Z 21.5N 65.0W 105 KT