ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
CENTERED ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON...IS DRIFTING
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO
INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
THE SYSTEM TURNS WESTWARD TOWARD THE U.S. COAST

000
WONT41 KNHC 271818
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...ADVISORIES WILL BE
INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...AND POSSIBLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD BY SATURDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN (AL072004) ON 20040827 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040827 1800 040828 0600 040828 1800 040829 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.6N 78.0W 30.9N 78.3W 30.6N 78.8W 30.8N 79.1W
BAMM 31.6N 78.0W 31.3N 78.3W 31.3N 79.0W 31.8N 79.4W
A98E 31.6N 78.0W 31.5N 77.8W 31.5N 78.0W 31.9N 77.9W
LBAR 31.6N 78.0W 31.1N 78.4W 31.2N 79.2W 31.6N 80.3W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040829 1800 040830 1800 040831 1800 040901 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.2N 78.9W 32.3N 77.0W 34.1N 74.5W 35.4N 70.7W
BAMM 32.7N 79.1W 35.3N 77.2W 38.4N 73.1W 40.3N 65.6W
A98E 32.7N 77.4W 33.9N 74.8W 36.5N 71.3W 41.5N 63.0W
LBAR 32.5N 81.2W 35.2N 80.9W 39.1N 77.3W 45.1N 66.2W
SHIP 53KTS 65KTS 66KTS 60KTS
DSHP 53KTS 35KTS 33KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.6N LONCUR = 78.0W DIRCUR = 135DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 32.0N LONM12 = 78.3W DIRM12 = 131DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 32.1N LONM24 = 78.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

849
WTNT22 KNHC 272028
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072004
2100Z FRI AUG 27 2004

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH
CAROLINA SOUTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 78.1W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 78.1W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 78.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 31.5N 78.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 32.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.8N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 33.7N 79.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 35.1N 77.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 39.0N 74.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 42.0N 64.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 78.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART

548
WTNT32 KNHC 272033
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORMS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA SOUTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR ABOUT
140 MILES... 225 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER
CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1014 MB...29.94 INCHES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...31.6 N... 78.1 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

361
WTNT42 KNHC 272047
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATONS...ALONG WITH WSR-88D DATA FROM
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA...INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS DEVELOPED INTO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN.

THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE STEERING CURRENTS
ARE QUITE WEAK. HOWEVER...A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD-7
IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AND ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD. BY
96 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE CAPTURED BY THE TROUGH AND
CARRIED OUT TO SEA AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS
MODELS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THAT WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION.

THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IS SHOWING
GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THUS...
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY 24
HR AND REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KT AT LANDFALL. THERE IS A
CHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF IT STAYS
OFFSHORE LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 31.6N 78.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 31.5N 78.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 32.0N 79.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 32.8N 80.0W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 29/1800Z 33.7N 79.4W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 30/1800Z 35.1N 77.7W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 31/1800Z 39.0N 74.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 01/1800Z 42.0N 64.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

2100 UTC 8/27/2004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 FORECAST #1

This is an independent product

A new tropical depression has formed in the Atlantic basin. This depression is very close to the southeast U.S. coastline.
Based upon satellite and radar imagery, this depression has a definite circulation with a fair amount of convection. Due to its favorable environment strengthening to a hurricane is possible in 36-48 hours, which is consistent with the SHIPS guidance.

Currently TD-7 is drifting to the SE near 2 kt. A large mid-level ridge is located to the north of the system, this is likely to steer TD 7 to the northwest perhaps bringing the system inland along the Carolina coastline within the next 24-36 hours or so. However, due to the uncertain current motion, track reasoning is difficult to determine.

Initial: 31.6N 78.0W 25KT
12 Hour: 31.6N 78.5W 35KT
24 Hour: 31.8N 78.8W 45KT
36 Hour: 32.0N 79.1W 55KT
48 Hour: 32.2N 79.5W 65KT (near land)
72 Hour: 36.0N 77.5W 50KT (inland)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 39.0N 73.5W 40KT
120 Hour: 42.0N 68.5W 30KT

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

Tropical Depression Seven Forecast 1
5:00PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004

Although these forecasts have been shown reliable, first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center.

...New depression forms off Southeast coast; watches posted...

...Based on 2015 UTC images...

T-numbers were set at 1.5 for Invest 97L earlier today, but QuikSCAT indicated winds of 30kts within the system, so initial intensity will be set at 30kts.

The system has become tropical very quickly as it has been positioned over the Gulf Stream for the past couple of days, and a tropical core has quickly developed today; however, it is somewhat disorganized and is located lobsidedly on the west side of the storm. Vertical shear is rather low over the system, and surface shear is rather light as well--both at about 10kts; therefore, intensification is expected, and should the center remain over the warm water of the Gulf Stream, explosive development could occur.

High pressure is currently is control of the eastern United States, and a trough is located over the Rockies, with an apex in Utah. This trough should move encroach the eastern United States within 72 hours, which would result in a movement to the northwest. However, the forecast path for now is very slow, as steering currents in this portion of the Atlantic are weak, and will remain so for 48 to 60 more hours. The system is not skirting land immediately now; therefore, I will keep the storm offshore through 72 hours, allowing it to intensify through the beginning of the forecast period; however, I will not allow for a hurricane as the system drifts about, particularly in a possible southward direction. I will allow for a 60kt tropical storm in 72 hours, during which, strong shear will approach with the CONUS trough, so intensity is maintained as the system remains over the Gulf Stream, and the consequence of shear is not quite certain--it may aid outflow to the north; however, I am more inclined to believe that a nearly stationary storm would be affected negatively by stiff southwesterly flow. However, the track forecast moves northeast after 48 hours, and the forecast intensifies in the face of shear, but continues to intensify slowly as the storm picks up speed.

Note that the track forecast skirts the North Carolina Outer Banks and directs the storm to sea.

INIT 31.7N 78.2W 30KTS
12HR 31.6N 78.4W 35KTS
24HR 31.6N 78.9W 40KTS
36HR 32.0N 79.1W 50KTS
48HR 32.8N 78.6W 55KTS
72HR 35.4N 75.3W 60KTS
96HR 38.4N 71.4W 60KTS
120HR 43.2N 64.2W 50KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

Experimental Shear/Dry Air Model (See information here.)

INIT 1014mb
12HR 1009mb
24HR 1005mb
36HR 1001mb
48HR 1000mb
72HR 1002mb
96HR CONSTR. SHEAR
120HR EXTRATROPICAL

Powell

Tropical Depression Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 1a

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2004

a tropical storm watch is in effect for the southeastern U.S. Coast
from Surf City North Carolina southward to Fernandina Beach
Florida.

At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Depression Seven was
located near latitude 31.3 north...longitude 77.8 west or about
150 miles southeast of Charleston South Carolina.

The depression has been moving slowly and erratically toward the
south-southeast. A slow westward drift is expected to begin later
tonight or Saturday. This motion could bring the center closer to
the southeastern U.S. Coast on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a tropical storm on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb...29.88 inches.

Locally heavy rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible along
the track of the depression.

Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...31.3 N... 77.8 W. Movement...
slow and erratic south-southeastward. Maximum sustained winds... 30
mph. Minimum central pressure...1012 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM EDT.

thanks for the info. it looks stationary right now

Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 2

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2004

a tropical storm watch remains in effect for the southeastern U.S.
Coast from Surf City North Carolina southward to Fernandina Beach
Florida.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression Seven was
located near latitude 31.3 north...longitude 78.0 west or about
155 miles southeast of Charleston South Carolina.

The depression is drifting slowly southward. A continued slow
motion with a turn toward the west is expected on Saturday. This
motion is expected to bring the depression closer to the southeast
U.S. Coast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb...29.88 inches.

Locally heavy rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible along
the track of the depression.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.3 N... 78.0 W. Movement
toward...south near 2 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1012 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Lawrence

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2004

satellite Dvorak intensity estimates and peripheral surface
observations suggest that the highest winds remain near 25 kt.
However the cloud pattern is rather symmetric with some banding and
a lately increasing but not too well organized area of deep
convection. With low vertical shear and warm SSTs...the SHIPS and
GFDL models call for modest strengthening. The official forecast
is for the winds to increase to 40 kt in 36 hours...after which the
system is forecast to move inland. This forecast is a little lower
than the SHIPS model which forecasts the winds to 52 kt before
landfall and a little higher than the GFDL model.
The circulation center is not well defined on satellite imagery or
on the Charleston or Wilmington radars. The initial motion
estimate at 00z is an uncertain 150/02 and an uncertain 180/02 at
03z. The global track models are in fairly good agreement about a
continued very slow motion for a day or two while the system
gradually turns westward to northward to northeastward in
conjunction with an approaching short wave trough in the
westerlies. An acceleration northeastward is indicated after 48
hours. The official track forecast is in general similar to the
previous advisory...except that the landfall timing is a little
slower and slightly further north.

Forecaster Lawrence

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 28/0300z 31.3n 78.0w 25 kt
12hr VT 28/1200z 31.2n 78.3w 30 kt
24hr VT 29/0000z 31.6n 78.9w 35 kt
36hr VT 29/1200z 32.7n 79.3w 40 kt
48hr VT 30/0000z 33.8n 78.9w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 31/0000z 36.0n 77.0w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 01/0000z 39.0n 72.0w 30 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 02/0000z 42.0n 62.0w 30 kt...extratropical

751
WTNT32 KNHC 280535
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING LITTLE...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH
FLORIDA.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST OR ABOUT
135 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
BUT A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION
WOULD BRING THE DEPRESSION CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...31.3 N... 78.2 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

Tropical Depression Threatens Southeast Coast
Hurricane Frances Gains Strength In Atlantic

POSTED: 7:34 pm EDT August 26, 2004
UPDATED: 11:06 pm EDT August 27, 2004

MIAMI, Fla. -- A tropical depression formed southeast of the Carolinas on Friday, prompting tropical storm watches south to the Georgia-Florida state line.

At 11 p.m. EDT, the depression was 155 miles southeast of Charleston, S.C., with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph. It was nearly stationary, but forecasters expected the storm to drift slowly westward Saturday.

It was predicted to come ashore near Charleston late Saturday and move to the northeast across the Carolinas.

The depression could strengthen into a weak tropical storm before making landfall, according to experts at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The biggest threat was flooding. Three to 5 inches of rain were forecast along coastal areas from Georgia to North Carolina.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Frances grew into a Category 3 storm Friday in the Atlantic, but it was not expected to threaten land in the near future.

Frances had maximum sustained winds near 115 mph, according to the hurricane center.

At 11 p.m. EDT, the hurricane was centered about 750 miles east of the Leeward Islands in the southeastern Caribbean and was moving west-northwest near 10 mph, forecasters said.

A storm becomes a hurricane when wind speed reaches 74 mph. Category 1 hurricanes have maximum sustained wind speeds up to 95 mph; Category 2 storms have wind of 96 to 110 mph.

Frances is the sixth named storm of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

402
WTNT42 KNHC 280847
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM CHARLESTON SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER IN A CYCLONIC CURVED BAND. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
2.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 30
KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...THEREFORE...THE
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

BECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY FORCE
THE CYCLONE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND STEER THE CYCLONE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF THE CYCLONE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 31.2N 78.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 31.3N 78.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 31.5N 79.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 32.2N 79.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 33.0N 80.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/0600Z 34.6N 77.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/0600Z 39.0N 70.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/0600Z 42.5N 60.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

1500 UTC 8/28/2004 TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST #3

This is an independent product

Water vapor imagery shows enough ridging to bring the Gaston to the west and NW and inland. Guidance also goes along with this scenario. The tricky part of this forecast is to discuss the threat farther up the U.S. East Coast. Recurvature appears likely as the front to the west begins to capture the system late tomorrow. For now, this forecast keeps the storm south of New England.

Initial intensity is set to 35KT. I would have went higher based upon the latest satellite imagery had the buoys been a little more impressive. Recon will investigate later today. Conditions appear to be favorable for significant intensification before landfall. Last evening, there was some shear; thus, that intensity forecast was lowered. However, this one again forecasts a hurricane at landfall and if the current development trends continue, this forecast may be too conservative.

Initial: 31.4N 78.3W 35KT
12 Hour: 31.6N 78.7W 45KT
24 Hour: 32.1N 79.1W 55KT
36 Hour: 32.6N 79.2W 65KT
48 Hour: 34.0N 78.9W 55KT (inland)
72 Hour: 38.0N 73.5W 40KT (over water)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 41.0N 67.0W 40KT
120 Hour: Extra-Tropical

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 4

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 28, 2004

Morning visible satellite imagery shows that Tropical Depression
Seven has significantly increased in organization...with a curved
convective band wrapped halfway around the center. Satellite
intensity estimates are 45 kt from SAB and 35 kt from TAFB. The
depression is thus upgraded to Tropical Storm Gaston with 35 kt
winds. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the system this afternoon.
The initial motion is a westward drift...270/2. Steering currents
are current weak. However...large-scale models suggest that a
ridge will build over the Atlantic northeast of the storm...
followed by a deep-layer trough moving eastward into the eastern
United States. This combination should allow for a slow
west-northwestward motion...followed in about 36-48 hr by
recurvature to the northeast and then acceleration. Guidance
generally agrees with the direction...although there is some spread
on the speed. The forecast track is a little to the right and a
little faster than the previous forecast during the first 48 hr...
and then somewhat slower thereafter.

An upper-level ridge is over Gaston at this time...and the shear is
light. Thus...steady strengthening is expected until landfall...
with the landfall intensity of 50 kt being a compromise between the
stronger ships and the weaker GFDL. Gaston should weaken after
landfall...then become extratropical over the Atlantic to the east
of the mid-Atlantic states.

The forecast track and wind radii require tropical storm warnings
for the South Carolina coast at this time. Due to the relatively
slow motion during the first 48 hr...there is a potential for heavy
rains along the track of Gaston.

Forecaster Beven

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 28/1500z 31.4n 78.5w 35 kt
12hr VT 29/0000z 31.5n 78.9w 40 kt
24hr VT 29/1200z 32.1n 79.5w 45 kt
36hr VT 30/0000z 32.8n 79.8w 50 kt...inland
48hr VT 30/1200z 33.9n 79.2w 40 kt...inland
72hr VT 31/1200z 36.0n 76.0w 35 kt...inland
96hr VT 01/1200z 40.0n 68.5w 30 kt...over water
120hr VT 02/1200z 42.5n 59.0w 30 kt...extratropical

TROPICAL STORM GASTON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

...GASTON DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD...RECON APPROACHING...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SURF CITY
NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO FERNANDINA
BEACH FLORIDA.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST OR ABOUT
120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

GASTON IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING WESTWARD. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF GASTON NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL REACH GASTON WITHIN
THE HOUR.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF GASTON.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...31.3 N... 78.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

URNT12 KNHC 281852
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/1852Z
B. 31 DEG 17 MIN N
78 DEG 54 MIN W
C. NA
D. 60 KT
E. 001 DEG 20 NM
F. 078 DEG 59 KT
G. 354 DEG 27 NM
H. EXTRAP 996 MB
I. 23 C/ 311 M
J. 26 C/ 301 M
K. 25 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/01
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF861 0107A GASTON OB 04
MAX FL WIND 59 KT N QUAD 1843Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
RADAR SHOWED GOOD BANDING W-NE QUADS.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 282029
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT GASTON IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE AIRCRAFT
MEASURED 59 KT WINDS AT 1500 FT FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER AND MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 996 MB. THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...WHICH WAS EXPOSED EARLIER...IS NOW COVERED BY A NEW BURST
OF CONVECTION...AND THE CHARLESTON WSR-88D SHOWS A GOOD CURVED BAND
PATTERN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND
AFWA...AND 45 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45
KT...AND THIS MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A WESTWARD DRIFT...270/3. STEERING
CURRENTS ARE CURRENTLY WEAK. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE STORM...AND
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN AFTER 24 HR. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION...FOLLOWED IN ABOUT 36-48 HR BY
RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN ACCELERATION. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD
ON THE SPEED. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 48 HR.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER GASTON AT THIS TIME...AND THE SHEAR IS
LIGHT. THUS...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL...
WITH THE LANDFALL INTENSITY OF 60 KT BEING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
STRONGER SHIPS AND THE WEAKER GFDL. GASTON SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
LANDFALL...THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE EAST
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT GASTON
COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SUNDAY...AND THIS REQUIRES A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST.

DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOTION DURING THE FIRST 48 HR...THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE TRACK OF GASTON.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 31.4N 78.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 31.8N 79.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 32.7N 79.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 33.7N 79.6W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 30/1800Z 34.9N 78.4W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/1800Z 37.5N 74.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 01/1800Z 41.0N 66.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/1800Z 43.0N 55.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 5a

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2004

...Gaston getting a little stronger...hurricane warnings issued for
South Carolina coast...

At 745 PM...2345z...a Hurricane Warning was issued for the coast of
South Carolina from the Savannah River to Little River Inlet. A
Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are possible in
the warning area during the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect elsewhere along the
southeastern U.S. Coast north of Little River Inlet to Surf City
North Carolina...and south of the Savannah River to Fernandina
Beach Florida.

At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 31.5 north...longitude 79.1 west or about
95 miles south-southeast of Charleston South Carolina.

Gaston is now drifting northwestward. A slow motion toward the
northwest or north is expected during the next 24 hours. This
motion could bring the center of Gaston near the South Carolina
coast by late Sunday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph...with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast...and Gaston
could be a hurricane strength as it approaches the South Carolina
coast.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the
center.

The minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter is
994 mb...29.35 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...with
higher levels in bays...can be expected near and to the east of
where the center crosses the coast. Tides of 1 to 3 ft above
normal can be expected elsewhere in the warned area. Dangerous high
surf and rip currents are also possible along the coast in the
warned area.

Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches...with locally higher amounts...
can be expected along the path of Gaston.
Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight and Sunday in the
coastal areas of South Carolina.

Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...31.5 N... 79.1 W. Movement
drifting northwestward. Maximum sustained winds... 65 mph. Minimum
central pressure... 994 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM EDT.

1500 UTC 8/28/2004 TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST #3

This is an independent product

Water vapor imagery shows enough ridging to bring the Gaston to the west and NW and inland. Guidance also goes along with this scenario. The tricky part of this forecast is to discuss the threat farther up the U.S. East Coast. Recurvature appears likely as the front to the west begins to capture the system late tomorrow. For now, this forecast keeps the storm south of New England.

Initial intensity is set to 35KT. I would have went higher based upon the latest satellite imagery had the buoys been a little more impressive. Recon will investigate later today. Conditions appear to be favorable for significant intensification before landfall. Last evening, there was some shear; thus, that intensity forecast was lowered. However, this one again forecasts a hurricane at landfall and if the current development trends continue, this forecast may be too conservative.

Initial: 31.4N 78.3W 35KT
12 Hour: 31.6N 78.7W 45KT
24 Hour: 32.1N 79.1W 55KT
36 Hour: 32.6N 79.2W 65KT
48 Hour: 34.0N 78.9W 55KT (inland)
72 Hour: 38.0N 73.5W 40KT (over water)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 41.0N 67.0W 40KT
120 Hour: Extra-Tropical

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 6

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2004

A U.S. Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft measured 60 kt
winds at 1500 ft flight level to the southwest of the center and
measured a central pressure of 994 mb and also reported a 35 N mi
diameter eye with some open areas. Both Charleston and Wilmington
radars show an eye-type feature except open to the south. The wind
speed is increased to 55 kt based on the above. With light
vertical shear and warm SSTs...both the SHIPS and GFDL models bring
Gaston to about 65 kt before landfall. The official intensity
forecast follows this guidance.


The initial motion is 330/03 based on recon...radar and satellite
fixes. The track guidance continues the same scenario of a turn
toward the north and then northeast in response to an advancing
short wave trough in the westerlies. The official track forecast
is the same as the previous advisory...except a little faster...
through 24 hours. After 24 hours...the official forecast is
adjusted to the left of the previous advisory and is also faster in
agreement with a consensus of the global track models.


Recon observations show that the radius of 35 kt winds is only about
50 N mi or less in all quadrants. The radii east of the center are
forecast to expand to 75 N mi as Gaston moves northward.


Forecaster Lawrence


forecast positions and Max winds


initial 29/0300z 31.7n 79.2w 55 kt
12hr VT 29/1200z 32.3n 79.5w 65 kt
24hr VT 30/0000z 33.6n 79.7w 55 kt...inland
36hr VT 30/1200z 35.1n 79.0w 30 kt...inland
48hr VT 31/0000z 36.7n 77.0w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 01/0000z 41.0n 70.0w 30 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 02/0000z 45.0n 59.0w 30 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 03/0000z 47.0n 46.0w 30 kt...extratropical

000
WTNT42 KNHC 290834
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GASTON IS VERY CLOSE
TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z FROM TAFB
AND AFWA WERE 55 KT...AND 65 KT FROM SAB. THE NWS/CHARLESTON RADAR
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH A PARTIAL EYEWALL...BUT ONLY A
MODEST WARM SPOT IS APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. BASED
ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60
KT. I SEE NOTHING TO PREVENT GASTON FROM REACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN THE HOURS REMAINING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS 65 KT AT 12 HOURS...GASTON SHOULD ALREADY
BE INLAND BY THAT TIME. I SUSPECT THAT THE LANDFALL INTENSITY WILL
BE A LITTLE HIGHER...PERHAPS AROUND 70 KT.

GASTON HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH AS EXPECTED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NOW 350/6. GASTON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY
NORTHWARD TRACK TODAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN
THE WESTERLIES...AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED WESTWARD SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE FASTER NORTHWARD
MOTION ALSO SUGGESTS THAT GASTON MAY PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT GASTON SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED IN THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 32.5N 79.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 33.5N 79.6W 65 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 30/0600Z 35.0N 79.4W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 30/1800Z 36.7N 78.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 31/0600Z 38.5N 75.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 01/0600Z 43.0N 66.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 02/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE

the following are unofficial peak wind gusts through 9 am EDT sun
Aug 29 2004 from various observation sites across southeast South
Carolina.

Isle of Palms... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 70 knots
East Cooper Airport... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 59 knots
south Capers Island /nos site/... ... ... ... 53 knots
downtown Charleston /Coast Guard Station/. 52 knots
downtown Charleston /Perry street/... ... .. 48 knots
Charleston Airport... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 46 knots
Folly Beach /ndbc site/... ... ... ... ... ... . 44 knots
downtown Charleston /chl/... ... ... ... ... .. 40 knots
downtown Charleston /Calhoun street/... ... 39 knots

000
WTNT42 KNHC 291426
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

GASTON MADE LANDFALL JUST WEST OF MCCLELLANVILLE SOUTH CAROLINA
AROUND 14Z. WSR-88D VELOCITY DATA INDICATED THAT IT WAS JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WOULD VERY LIKELY HAVE
BECOME A HURRICANE IF IT HAD A FEW MORE HOURS OVER WATER. THE
STORM SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN NOW THAT THE CENTER IS INLAND...BUT IT
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH AT 7 KT. A GRADUAL BEND TO THE RIGHT...WITH
ACCELERATION...IS FORECAST AS GASTON BECOMES INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF
THE GREAT LAKES. BY 72 HOURS GASTON SHOULD HAVE LOST TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...AND IT IS EXPECTED BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL
SYSTEM SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 33.2N 79.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 34.3N 79.5W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 30/1200Z 35.9N 78.8W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/0000Z 37.7N 77.2W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 31/1200Z 39.8N 74.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 01/1200Z 44.5N 64.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 02/1200Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL SYSTEM

000
WTNT32 KNHC 291801
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004
...CORRECTED WINDS IN REPEAT SECTION...
...GASTON CONTINUES WEAKENING OVER SOUTH CAROLINA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO
BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 33.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR
ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA.

GASTON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH AND A NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY AND OVER NORTH CAROLINA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND GASTON SHOULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS STILL POSSIBLE
NEAR THE HEADS OF RIVERS IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH GASTON.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...33.5 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number 9

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 29, 2004

...Gaston continues to weaken...

at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued
south of the South Santee River South Carolina. A Tropical Storm
Warning remains in effect from the South Santee River to Little
River Inlet South Carolina. This warning will likely be lowered
later this evening.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 33.9 north... longitude 79.6 west or about 80
miles... 130 km... north-northeast of Charleston South Carolina.

Gaston is moving toward the north near 8 mph...and a northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected over the next 24 hours. On
this track the center will continue moving over eastern South
Carolina this evening and over North Carolina later tonight and
early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Gaston should weaken to a tropical depression later this
evening.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles southeast
of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches...with locally higher amounts...
are expected in association with Gaston.

Isolated tornadoes are possible today over northeastern South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...33.9 N... 79.6 W. Movement
toward...north near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate public advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT...followed by a regular public advisory
at 11 PM EDT issued by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center...
under AWIPS header tcpat2 and wmo header wtnt32 kwnh.

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 9


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 29, 2004


Gaston continues its trek inland over South Carolina and it should
be moving into North Carolina later tonight. The cyclone is now
barely of tropical storm strength and it is expected to become a
depression within the next few hours. Gaston will continue to
produce locally heavy rains along/near its path.
The motion continues at around 360/7. A gradual turn to the
north-northeast and northeast with increasing forward speed is
predicted...as the cyclone begins to feel the influence of a trough
moving into the northeastern United States over the next couple of
days. The system is likely to lose tropical characteristics as it
moves into the Canadian Maritimes and then get absorbed into a
frontal system. However...prior to this...the larger circulation
of Gaston is expected to absorb Tropical Storm Hermine in the 48
hour time frame.
Since Gaston should continue to weaken over land...the remaining
Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of South Carolina will likely
be discontinued in a few hours.
Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 29/2100z 33.9n 79.6w 35 kt...inland
12hr VT 30/0600z 35.2n 79.2w 30 kt...inland
24hr VT 30/1800z 37.0n 78.0w 30 kt...inland
36hr VT 31/0600z 39.5n 75.0w 30 kt...inland
48hr VT 31/1800z 41.5n 71.0w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 01/1800z 46.0n 61.0w 30 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 02/1800z...absorbed by frontal system

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GASTON HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT NEARS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE CENTER OF GASTON IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
WILLIAMSBURG VIRGINIA AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF THE
CENTER. THE CHESAPEAKE LIGHT BUOY RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 38 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 41 MPH AT A HEIGHT OF 138 FT ABOVE THE
SURFACE. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER WILL BE RE-INITIATING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GASTON AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z. NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 310252
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

SURFACE OBASREVATIONS INDICATE GASTON HAS REGAINED TROPICAL STORM
STRNGTH...OVER WATER EAST OF THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE CHESAPEAKE LIGHT C-MAN STATION HAS
REPORTED 10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 KT WITH GUTS TO 49 KT AT
42 METERS ABOVE THE WATER. SHIP H9YY ALSO REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 36 KT AT 00Z ABOUT 35 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. ALL OF THESE WIND REPORTS WERE FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST INDICATING THAT NO TROPICAL STORMN FORCE WINDS WERE BEING
REPORTED OVER LAND.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/16. GASTON IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND REMAIN OFFSHORE THE U.S. NORTHEAST
COAST ONCE IT CLEARS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA IN ANOTHER 3 HOURS OR
SO. AFTER PASSING OVER COLDER WATER IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS...GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW/GALE AREA IS EXPECTED.

EVEN THOUGH GASTON IS A TROPCIAL STORM...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WIND ARE OCCURING IN A SMALL AREA WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE...COASTAL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS ARE NOT BEING ISSUED...ALTHOUGH GASTON WILL BE A THREAT TO
MARINE INTERESTS.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0300Z 37.7N 75.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 39.3N 73.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 41.6N 66.9W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 01/1200Z 44.3N 59.4W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 02/0000Z 48.0N 49.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

11 P.M. EDT 8/30/2004 TROPICAL STORM GASTON UPDATE #14

This is an independent product

Gaston has become better organized and is moving offshore; therefore, updates are being issued.

A severe situation is developing over Virginia. There have been reports of severe flooding and more rainfall is expected. The Falling Creek Resivor Dam may fail at a moments notice. Comply with any orders given by local emergency management officials. Farther up the coast into Delaware and New Jersey, up to 5-10 inches of rainfall is possible, producing more flooding.

NWHHC now recommends a Tropical Storm Warning from the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay to Atlabtic City, New Jersey. Please remember that this is only a recommendation and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or local emergency management officials.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Gaston is located near 37.7N and 75.8W. This places the storm about 55 miles SW of Ocean City, Maryland. The motion is to the ENE near 18 m.p.h. This track should continue and the storm is expected to remain south of New England.

Maximum winds are estimated to be near 40 m.p.h. The pressure is 1001mb. Little change in intensity is expected before extra-tropical transition in a couple of days.

Next Update: 6 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

000
WTNT42 KNHC 310847
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

WSR-88D DATA FROM DOVER DELAWARE SHOWS THAT GASTON STILL HAS A GOOD
RADAR SIGNATURE. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AND A
FRONTAL-LIKE BAND SEEMS TO BE FORMING SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A
COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COLD SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE GASTON TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
IN 24-36 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/16. GASTON SHOULD ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS INDICATED BY ALL
GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE SPEED...AND THE FORECAST
SPEED IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0900Z 38.4N 73.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 40.0N 70.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 42.3N 64.0W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 01/1800Z 45.1N 56.2W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 02/0600Z 48.5N 46.7W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

000
WTNT42 KNHC 311433
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL-DEFINED ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND WSR-88D DATA
FROM BROOKHAVEN NEW YORK SHOW A FAIR RADAR PRESENTATION. SINCE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
LIKELY. GASTON IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING
BAROCLINIC ZONE VERY SOON...SO THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN 24 HOURS. GASTON'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN A FEW
DAYS.

THE STORM HAS BEEN ACCELERATING...AND INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 055/18.
GASTON IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN
THE WESTERLIES. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE IN FORWARD
SPEEDS AMONGST THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS. THIS OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GUIDANCE...AND NOT QUITE AS FAST AS
THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 39.5N 71.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 41.0N 68.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 43.0N 62.0W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 02/0000Z 46.0N 53.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 02/1200Z 49.5N 44.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/1200Z...ABSORBED