Title: Tropical Storm Hermine
Matthew - August 29, 2004 06:20 PM (GMT)
FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (AL082004) ON 20040829 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040829 1800 040830 0600 040830 1800 040831 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.0N 70.7W 33.6N 72.3W 35.7N 73.0W 38.2N 72.0W
BAMM 32.0N 70.7W 33.7N 72.6W 36.0N 73.8W 38.6N 73.6W
A98E 32.0N 70.7W 33.5N 72.1W 35.2N 72.0W 37.8N 70.5W
LBAR 32.0N 70.7W 33.7N 71.8W 36.1N 72.2W 39.0N 71.5W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS 48KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040831 1800 040901 1800 040902 1800 040903 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 41.0N 68.5W 46.8N 52.3W 50.9N 27.9W 52.2N 7.5W
BAMM 41.2N 70.4W 46.3N 53.9W 50.9N 29.9W 55.6N 11.4W
A98E 40.6N 66.8W 47.7N 50.4W 50.8N 22.6W 46.2N 10.2W
LBAR 42.6N 68.5W 49.3N 48.2W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 56KTS 56KTS 50KTS
DSHP 52KTS 56KTS 56KTS 50KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.0N LONCUR = 70.7W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 30.7N LONM12 = 69.0W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 29.7N LONM24 = 67.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1018MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Matthew - August 29, 2004 06:36 PM (GMT)
000
WONT41 KNHC 291755
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT
360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA CONTINUES TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL
BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.
FORECASTER PASCH
Matthew - August 29, 2004 07:34 PM (GMT)
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/OKX/AFDOKX BUT WE'RE NOT DONE YET. THE THIRD AND NEWEST PLAYER IN THE MIX IS
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 360MI SE OF CAPE HATTERAS
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THIS FEATURE IS
GETTING MORE IMPRESSIVE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...SHOWING MORE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THE TPC
MAY UPGRADE THIS DISTURBANCE TO T.D.#8 OR EVEN TROPICAL STORM
HERMINE AT 5 PM TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY...SINCE IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOW SHEAR IS CURRENTLY PRESENT IN IT'S
PATH...AS WELL AS RELATIVELY WARM SST'S...SO THIS COULD BECOME A
WIND AND RAIN THREAT FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUE. THE MOST LIKELY REGION IN OUR CWA THAT THIS FEATURE WOULD
IMPACT WOULD BE LONG ISLAND AND SERN CT
Matthew - August 29, 2004 08:57 PM (GMT)
Tropical Storm Hermine Forecast/Advisory Number 1
Statement as of 21:00Z on August 29, 2004
tropical storm center located near 32.4n 71.0w at 29/2100z
position accurate within 30 nm
present movement toward the northwest or 325 degrees at 9 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 1008 mb
Max sustained winds 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
34 kt....... 25ne 50se 50sw 0nw.
12 ft seas.. 25ne 50se 50sw 0nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 32.4n 71.0w at 29/2100z
at 29/1800z center was located near 32.0n 70.7w
forecast valid 30/0600z 33.5n 72.0w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 50ne 50se 25sw 50nw.
Forecast valid 30/1800z 35.6n 73.1w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 50ne 50se 25sw 50nw.
Forecast valid 31/0600z 39.0n 72.0w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 50ne 50se 25sw 25nw.
Forecast valid 31/1800z...absorbed by Gaston
request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 32.4n 71.0w
next advisory at 30/0300z
forecaster Avila
Matthew - August 29, 2004 09:09 PM (GMT)
614
WTNT43 KNHC 292057
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL STORM HERMINE...THE EIGHT
TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION DUE TO SOME SHEAR.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED AND...BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE MERGED WITH THE
MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH GASTON.
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEPS THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE
U.S EAST COAST. THEREFORE...NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNING ARE
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 32.4N 71.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 33.5N 72.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 35.6N 73.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 39.0N 72.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL
Matthew - August 30, 2004 03:09 AM (GMT)
000
WTNT43 KNHC 300238
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM BOTH
SAB AND AIRFORCE GLOBAL. BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 40 KTS. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS SAME
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT AND ONLY A SMALL INCREASE
IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST. ALSO...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED AND...BY 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE
MERGED WITH OR BEEN ABSORBED BY THE MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH GASTON. THIS MERGER OR ABSORPTION
MEANS THAT NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNING WILL BE NECESSARY.
HOWEVER...GALE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0300Z 33.2N 71.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 35.1N 71.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 37.9N 71.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 41.2N 70.4W 45 KT...ABSORBED
Matthew - August 30, 2004 03:25 PM (GMT)
000
WTNT43 KNHC 301427
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED TO
THE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS POORLY
ORGANIZED. HOWEVER A 0947Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 45 TO 50 KT WINDS
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10. THIS MOTION PUTS THE CENTER
OVER COLD SSTS BY 12 HOURS AND NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A FARILY STRONG EXTRATROPICAL
CIRCULATION. THE FORECAST WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 35 KT JUST IN CASE
THE GUIDANCE IS CORRECT.
THE GFS KEEPS HERMINE AS A SEPARATE VORTICITY CENTER UNTIL 24 HOURS
AFTER WHICH IT MERGES WITH A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES WHICH
PROBABLY INCLUDES THE REMAINS OF GASTON. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 36.7N 71.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 40.0N 71.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 31/1200Z 44.0N 67.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 01/0000Z 48.0N 61.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 01/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
Matthew - August 30, 2004 05:23 PM (GMT)
000
WTNT61 KNHC 301650
TCUAT
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE TO PLYMOUTH AND
INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD OVER COLDER WATER. HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT
HERMINE IS NOT WEAKENING AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE ISSUED AS
A PRECAUTION THAT THE WARNING AREA COULD BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE WINDS
IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS
TONIGHT.
LAWRENCE
Matthew - August 30, 2004 08:46 PM (GMT)
000
WTNT43 KNHC 302010
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004
THE CENTER IS AGAIN EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF SOME NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE
CONVECTION. BUT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL ALLOW FOR A 45
KT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
HERMINE MOVES OVER COLD WATER. BUOY 44004 IS ONLY ABOUT 40 N MI
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. IF THE BUOY DOES NOT OBSERVE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS...THEN HERMINE IS LIKELY
BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/18. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STORM MOVES
AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND RUNS INTO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS
850 MB VORTICITY CENTER WHICH IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 38.4N 71.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 41.0N 70.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 31/1800Z 46.0N 65.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 01/0600Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL TROUGH
Matthew - August 31, 2004 03:11 AM (GMT)
000
WTNT43 KNHC 310241
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004
HERMINE IS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AND LOOKS LIKE A LOW LEVEL
CLOUD SWIRL...A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...BUOY 44004 REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KTS AND SEAS OF 15 FEET AS THE CENTER PASSED
TO THE WEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A 35 KNOT WIND MAXIMUM IS LOCATED
BETWEEN THE BUOY AND THE CYCLONE CENTER. SATELLITE T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB ALSO SUPPORT A 35 KNOT WIND SPEED. SO THE SYSTEM IS
KEPT AS A 35 KNOT TROPICAL STORM UNTIL LANDFALL IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/24. THIS MOTION IS KEPT UNTIL
AFTER LANDFALL ON THE MASSACHUSETTS MAINLAND AND THEN A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST AS THE STORM MOVES AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND RUNS INTO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE GFDL SOLUTION.
THE 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER OF HERMINE IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0300Z 41.1N 71.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 44.1N 68.6W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 01/0000Z 47.9N 61.8W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
Matthew - August 31, 2004 06:12 AM (GMT)
000
WTNT33 KNHC 310559
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2004
...HERMINE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR NEW BEDFORD MASSACHUSETTS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE TO PLYMOUTH INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST OR NEAR
ROUND HILL POINT MASSACHUSETTS WHICH IS JUST SOUTH OF NEW BEDFORD
OR ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAUNTON MASSACHUSETTS.
HERMINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH...44
KM/HR... AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HERMINE WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN...BUT WIND GUSTS
TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY.
HERMINE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
FROM THE CENTER MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...41.5 N... 71.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
Matthew - August 31, 2004 08:32 AM (GMT)
262
WTNT43 KNHC 310826
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004
HERMINE HAS COME ASHORE AND AND THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED WINDS WERE
ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE BOSTON RADAR SHOWS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY FILLING.
RATHER THAN CONTINUE THIS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WE WILL DECLARE
IT EXTRATROPICAL AT THIS TIME.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/17. THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD MERGE WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0900Z 42.4N 69.9W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 31/1800Z 45.1N 66.8W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$