A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA...IS CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH AND IT WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO THE MUCH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW. INTERESTS IN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

TROPICAL WAVE NEAR BARBADOS ALONG 59W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND 1012 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 15N/16N.
ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT THE
LOW AND SOME BANDING FEATURES ARE NOW EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 56W-62W INCLUDING MUCH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE WAVE WILL BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE MUCH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND E CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TOMORROW.

000
WHXX01 KWBC 131919
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN (AL112004) ON 20040913 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040913 1800 040914 0600 040914 1800 040915 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.9N 59.9W 16.3N 61.7W 16.9N 63.3W 17.7N 64.7W
BAMM 15.9N 59.9W 16.4N 62.0W 17.0N 63.8W 17.6N 65.4W
A98E 15.9N 59.9W 16.4N 61.9W 16.9N 63.9W 17.2N 65.8W
LBAR 15.9N 59.9W 16.2N 61.9W 16.8N 64.0W 17.4N 66.2W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 53KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040915 1800 040916 1800 040917 1800 040918 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.4N 66.0W 19.3N 67.8W 19.5N 68.6W 20.6N 69.6W
BAMM 18.3N 66.8W 19.5N 69.1W 19.9N 70.2W 20.8N 70.9W
A98E 17.3N 67.8W 17.6N 71.5W 16.8N 75.3W 15.4N 78.9W
LBAR 18.2N 68.1W 20.2N 71.6W 21.5N 74.1W 22.1N 75.5W
SHIP 62KTS 70KTS 72KTS 72KTS
DSHP 41KTS 48KTS 50KTS 50KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.9N LONCUR = 59.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 15.4N LONM12 = 57.8W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 15.1N LONM24 = 55.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

724
WTNT31 KNHC 132041
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON SEP 13 2004

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MARTEEN.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHEN LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NORTH OF GUADELOUPE.

AT 5 PM AST...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST
OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 110 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUADELOUPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS...POSSIBLY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...16.0 N... 60.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG WITH SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO WARRANT THE INITIATION OF ADVISORIES. THERE IS
PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...HOWEVER AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
PATH OF THE DEPRESSION COULD INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION SOMEWHAT.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED 290/10. A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND
HURRICANE IVAN IS FORECAST BY MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO PERSIST
WITH AN ASSOCIATED NE-SW ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH
ATLANTIC. THIS SCENARIO COULD CAUSE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 16.0N 60.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 16.7N 62.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 17.5N 64.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 18.4N 66.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 19.4N 68.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 21.4N 71.3W 60 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 23.0N 73.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 24.0N 74.5W 60 KT

000
WTNT41 KNHC 140236
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES INDICATE THAT TD-11
STILL HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH LIGHT WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND UW CIMSS
ANALYZED SATELLITE WINDS SHOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF WNW SHEAR ON THE
SYSTEM. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PRODUCE 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF SHEAR AT 60-72 HOUR. THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE AFTER THIS TIME AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
SCENARIO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10. TD-11 IS MOVING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LARGE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE. A PORTION OF THIS SAME RIDGE IS WEDGED
BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND HURRICANE IVAN AND IS FORECAST BY MOST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
SCENARIO SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AFTER ABOUT 36 TO 48
HOURS AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE NW AS THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY IVAN.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 16.2N 61.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 16.7N 62.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 17.5N 64.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 18.4N 66.3W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 19.3N 67.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 21.0N 69.6W 60 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 22.7N 71.3W 65 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 24.8N 73.0W 70 KT

Tropical Depression Eleven Intermediate Advisory Number 2a


Statement as of 2:00 am AST on September 14, 2004



...Tropical Depression Eleven passing through the Leeward Islands...

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the British Virgin
Islands... Saba...St. Eustatius...and St. Marteen.

Tropical storm conditions could also affect the remainder of the
northen Lesser Antilles to the north of Guadeloupe.

At 2 am AST...0600z...the very broad center of Tropical Depression
Eleven was located near latitude 16.3 north... longitude 61.8 west
or near the northwest tip of Guadeloupe.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph
...19 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb...29.83 inches.

Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected near the path of the depression.

Repeating the 2 am AST position...16.3 N... 61.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1010 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am AST.

Forecaster Jarvinen

011
WTNT31 KNHC 140837
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2004

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN NEARING TROPICAL STORM STATUS...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHEN LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NORTH OF GUADELOUPE.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST OR ABOUT
190 MILES... 300 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 50 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A RECENT WIND REPORT FROM THE ISLAND OF DESIRADE WAS 37
MPH FROM THE SSW AND TD-11 SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 9 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...16.6 N... 62.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

345
WTNT21 KNHC 140837
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112004
0900Z TUE SEP 14 2004

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHEN LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NORTH OF GUADELOUPE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 62.2W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 62.2W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 61.8W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.4N 63.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.5N 65.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.5N 67.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.4N 68.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.6N 70.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 23.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 25.0N 73.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 62.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

FORECASTER JARVINEN

000
WTNT41 KNHC 141440
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH BANDING FEATURES TO BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM JEANNE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT...
FROM AFWA. RECON WILL REACH JEANNE AROUND 18Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/10. THE
ADVISORY POSITION AS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK BASED ON RADAR DATA FROM GUADELOUPE.
HOWEVER...THIS MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION MAY JUST BE DUE TO
DISRUPTION OF THE SURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTION BY SOME OF THE LARGER
LEEWARD ISLANDS. A MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME SHORTLY...BUT THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE
SOUTH OR TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OWING TO THE MORE
SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION. THE NHC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER
THAT...THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS AND
GFDL MODELS TURNING JEANNE MORE NORTHWARD...WHILE THE NOGAPS...
UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS TRENDING MORE WESTWARD. A STRONG RIDGE
IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM BERMUDA TO
FLORIDA...WHICH SEPARATES T.S. JEANNE FROM HURRICANE IVAN. ONLY THE
GFS AND GFDL WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE IN THE LATER
PERIODS. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE RIDGE AND EVEN
BUILD IT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THE FORECAST WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD AT 96- AND 120-HOURS SIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN
MODELS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL.

JEANNE IS CURRENTLY UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN TO THE EAST OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE ONLY
IMMEDIATE HINDERING INFLUENCE TO THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS IS DRY
AIR PUNCHING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...
SURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED
AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL JEANNE PASSES OVER OR
NEAR PUERTO RICO. IN THE LONGER TERM...JEANNE IS FORECAST TO PASS
NEAR THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN 48-96 HOURS...WHICH
RESULTS IN 20-25 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. THE
INTENSITY IS LEVELED OFF UNTIL 120 HOURS...WHEN THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 16.6N 63.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 17.3N 64.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 18.3N 66.3W 55 KT...INLAND PUERTO RICO
36HR VT 16/0000Z 19.2N 68.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 20.0N 69.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 21.2N 71.3W 60 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 22.5N 73.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 24.5N 75.0W 70 KT

000
WTNT31 KNHC 141731
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2004

...TROPICAL STORM JEANNE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.
MARTEEN...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ANGUILLA...AND FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA NORTHWARD TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES... 165 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 9 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF JEANNE.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...16.7 N... 63.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT41 KNHC 142052
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004

RECONNAISSANCE...SATELLITE...AND SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR DATA
INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM JEANNE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN.
THE PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 998 MB...DOWN 4 MB IN 2 HOURS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON A 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
OF 58 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT A 46-KT SURFACE WIND...AND THE IMPROVED
APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SINCE THE RECON FIX.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/08...ALTHOUGH THE TWO RECON FIX
POSITIONS SUGGEST THE MOTION COULD BE CLOSER TO 285 DEGREES. THE
18Z 500 MB HEIGHT AT SAN JUAN HAS NOT CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS
...SUGGESTING THAT THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS
HOLDING STEADY. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE BAM
MODELS AND NOGAPS...MOVE JEANNE IMMEDIATELY NORTHWESTWARD AND TAKE
THE CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC GIVEN
THE PAST 18-HR MOTION OF JEANNE AND THE 18Z SAN JUAN UPPER-AIR
DATA. SO IN THE SHORT TERM...JEANNE IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO IN 18-24 HOURS...AND THEN SKIRT THE
NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AFTER THAT THROUGH 48 HOURS.
WHILE THE SPECIFIC SYNOPTIC DETAILS OF THE VARIOUS MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE CURRENTLY
LOCATED NORTH OF JEANNE WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW JEANNE TO MOVE ALMOST DUE NORTH AFTER 72 HOURS ALONG 70W
LONGITUDE. GIVEN THE GFS RECENT POOR HISTORY OF FORECASTING TOO
WEAK OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS. IT SHOULD BE
POINTED OUT THAT THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS KEEP A STRONG RIDGE
BETWEEN JEANNE AND IVAN THROUGH 120 HOURS...AND TAKE THE CYCLONE
WESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

JEANNE HAS DEVELOPED AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE CYCLONE NEARS PUERTO RICO. THIS
OUTFLOW PATTERN...COMBINED WITH NEARLY 29C SSTS AND A VERY TIGHT
INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AS NOTED IN THE RECON DATA...SHOULD ALLOW
JEANNE TO POSSIBLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES
PUERTO RICO. AFTER THAT...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO HISPANIOLA SHOULD
INHIBIT STRENGTHENING UNTIL AFTER 72 HOURS...WHEN JEANNE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA...AND NORTHERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME EASTERLY IN DIRECTION.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 16.8N 63.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 17.4N 65.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 18.1N 67.0W 65 KT...INLAND PUERTO RICO
36HR VT 16/0600Z 18.9N 68.6W 65 KT...NEAR DOM. REPUBLIC
48HR VT 16/1800Z 19.7N 70.0W 65 KT...NEAR DOM. REPUBLIC
72HR VT 17/1800Z 20.9N 72.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 22.5N 74.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 24.5N 75.5W 75 KT

Tropical Storm Jeanne Intermediate Advisory Number 5a


Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on September 14, 2004


...Jeanne headed for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
portions of the northern and southern coasts of the Dominican
Republic from Cabrera southward to Santo Domingo.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the British Virgin
Islands...St. Kitts...and Nevis.
Tropical storm conditions could also affect the remainder of the
northern Leeward Islands.
At 8 PM AST...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Jeanne was
located near latitude 17.0 north...longitude 64.1 west or about 65
miles... 110 km...southeast of St. Croix.

Jeanne is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. This motion would bring the center near St. Croix later
tonight or early Wednesday...and near Puerto Rico Wednesday
afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and Jeanne could become a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 40 miles
... 65 km from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb...29.47 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near and to the right of where the center makes landfall.

Rainfall accumulations of 8 to 10 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected near the path of Jeanne.

Repeating the 8 PM AST position...17.0 N... 64.1 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure... 998 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM AST.

Forecaster Pasch

$$

000
WTNT41 KNHC 150256
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004

SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS EARLIER IN
THE DAY. TWO DEEP CONVECTIVE AREAS ARE PRESENT WITH THE NORTHERN
MOST ONE BEING NEAR THE CENTER. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...NOT UNUSUAL FOR A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
STORM. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR DATA SHOWS THAT A POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL CENTER MAY BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM MAY BE TRYING TO REFORM A NEW CENTER AS THE
RADAR ALSO INDICATES SOME VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES TO THE NORTH
OF A POSSIBLE CENTER. T NUMBERS ARE UP FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND
GIVE 55 KT. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM THE INITIAL WINDS ARE HELD AT 50 KTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/07...A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT STILL
SUGGESTING THAT THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS HOLDING
STEADY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO THE SLOWER INITIAL
MOTION. IT CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GUNA AND GUNS CONSENSUS.

SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST JEANNE TO INTENSIFY TO A
HURRICANE. A LOT OF THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH
THE SHIPS FORECASTS SAYS IS IMPROVING. I HAVE HELD THE SAME
INTENSITY FORECAST AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE UNTIL WE SEE IF THE
SYSTEM CAN GET RE-ORGANIZED.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 17.2N 64.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 17.7N 65.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 18.6N 67.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.6N 68.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 20.5N 70.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 21.5N 72.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 23.0N 74.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 25.0N 75.5W 75 KT

992
WTNT31 KNHC 150852
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST WED SEP 15 2004

...JEANNE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF ST. CROIX...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COASTS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABRERA SOUTHWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
ESTIMATED FROM SAN JUAN RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE
65.1 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM... SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF JEANNE WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER
PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES ... 65 KM
FROM THE CENTER. UNCONFIRMED REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 58
MPH...WITH A GUST TO 88 MPH...HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM AN ELEVATED
LOCATION ON ST. CROIX. ADDITIONALLY...A SHIP RECENTLY REPORTED
WINDS OF 45 MPH JUST NORTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF JEANNE.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...17.5 N... 65.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
AST.

FORECASTER KNABB/JARVINEN

517
WTNT41 KNHC 150902
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

SAN JUAN RADAR DEPICTS A TIGHT CIRCULATION AND A WELL-DEFINED OUTER
CURVED BAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE....AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CIRCULATION LIES WELL WITHIN THE MASS OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND ALSO REVEALS THE OUTER CURVED BAND. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. OUTFLOW IS
GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE WEST. BASED ON THE IMPROVING
SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 55 KT. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE
FOR JEANNE UNTIL 18Z TODAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION...BASED PRIMARILY ON TRACKING A POORLY-DEFINED
CENTER ON SAN JUAN RADAR...IS ESTIMATED AT 295/7. JEANNE IS
CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST AND MOVE
JEANNE ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE...OWING TO DIFFERENCES IN
HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES A WEAKENING IVAN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFS HAS NOW MOVED MORE TO THE WEST IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE...BUT THE GFDL
HAS ALSO MOVED FARTHER LEFT AND IS NOW THE WESTERN OUTLIER. AS A
RESULT...THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
AT DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO
ADJUSTED JUST SLIGHTLY WEST...AND A BIT FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CHALLENGE. THROUGH 36 HOURS...MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION...BUT INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE. ONCE JEANNE EMERGES NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES...IT MAY STRUGGLE UNDER STRONGER NORTHERLY SHEAR.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE INSIST JEANNE WILL
SURVIVE THE SHEAR...UNTIL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE VERY
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
INDICATES SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS...LEVELLING
OFF THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN RESUMING GRADUAL STRENGTHENING ON DAYS
FOUR AND FIVE.

FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 17.5N 65.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 18.1N 66.5W 60 KT...OVER PUERTO RICO
24HR VT 16/0600Z 19.1N 68.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 20.0N 69.9W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 20.8N 71.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 22.5N 74.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 24.5N 76.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 27.0N 77.5W 80 KT

000
WTNT41 KNHC 151442
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN SUGGEST THAT
JEANNE MAY BE SUFFERING FROM SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION THIS
MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRIMARY CONVECTION...AND THE OUTER BANDING HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT
RAGGED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65
KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. DOPPLER RADAR WINDS
SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 55-60 KT. BASED ON ALL THE ABOVE...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 295/7. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. JEANNE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...AND MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT
THIS RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST AND MOVE JEANNE ON A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT
TIME...THE SOLUTIONS SOMEWHAT DIVERGE...OWING TO DIFFERENCES IN
HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES A WEAKENING IVAN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME
WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR JEANNE
TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVEN NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HR. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFDL IS A LEFT OUTLIER...CALLING FOR JEANNE TO TRACK
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY
DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
WITH A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 96 HR. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SAVE THE GFDL
AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OR CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF JEANNE AND CAUSING
SHEAR. LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF IDEAS FOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...FROM PERSISTING FOR THREE OR MORE DAYS
TO ALMOST INSTANT DISSIPATION. MOST LIKELY ENOUGH THIS FEATURE
WILL CREATE ENOUGH SHEAR TO AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR 48-72
HR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER
THAT...JEANNE SHOULD MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. ANOTHER COMPLICATION IS LAND INTERACTION.
PASSAGE OVER PUERTO RICO MAY AT LEAST SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND IF
JEANNE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALL BETS ARE OFF
ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT JEANNE COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING PUERTO RICO. EVEN IF IT DOES NOT...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
ALOFT SEEN ON THE SAN JUAN RADAR WILL AFFECT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 17.8N 65.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 18.3N 66.9W 65 KT...OVER PUERTO RICO
24HR VT 16/1200Z 19.2N 68.6W 65 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 17/0000Z 20.2N 70.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 21.1N 71.9W 65 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 23.0N 74.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 28.0N 77.5W 80 KT

000
WTNT44 KNHC 151427
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION CONCLUDED AT 12Z...AND THE NEXT
AIRCRAFT WILL BE ARRIVING MOMENTARILY. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF
127 KT DURING THE LAST PASS SUPPORT ABOUT 115 KT AT THE
SURFACE...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE 50 NM WIDE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS. COMPETING INFLUENCES MAKE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST DIFFICULT. THE HURRICANE IS NOW PASSING
OVER A WARM GULF EDDY WHICH COULD AID INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH
DATA COLLECTED BY A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT YESTERDAY SUGGEST THE
EDDY MAY NOT BE AS POTENT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT USING SATELLITE
MEASUREMENTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL-ESTABLISHED
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH NO SHEAR EVIDENT. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE WEST
SEMICIRCLE THAT COULD STILL PENETRATE THE CORE...AND THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR LANDFALL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT I
EXPECT SOME NET WEAKENING OF IVAN PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT STILL
EXPECT IT TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/11...AND IVAN LOOKS TO BE MAKING
THE EXPECTED NORTHWARD TURN. IVAN REMAINS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE NEW TRACK IS JUST A BIT FASTER TO THE COASTLINE.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED UNTIL WELL AFTER
LANDFALL...WHERE THERE ARE A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE
REMNANTS OF IVAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLOODING EVENT OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 27.3N 88.0W 115 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 28.9N 88.2W 115 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 31.0N 87.9W 90 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 17/0000Z 32.8N 87.4W 55 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 17/1200Z 34.0N 86.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 18/1200Z 35.5N 84.5W 20 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 19/1200Z 35.5N 84.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 20/1200Z 35.5N 84.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING

000
WTNT41 KNHC 152034
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

JEANNE TRIED TO FORM AN EYE IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST
AS IT WAS MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. WSR-88D
DATA FROM SAN JUAN INDICATES IT RETAINS A GOOD STRUCTURE ALTHOUGH
THE CURRENT DOPPLER WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF
HURRICANE FORCE. THIS AGREES WITH AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT...WHICH FOUND 57 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS IT FLEW
AROUND THE PUERTO RICO COAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/8. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. JEANNE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...AND MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT
THIS RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST AND MOVE JEANNE ON A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT
TIME...THE SOLUTIONS SOMEWHAT DIVERGE...OWING TO DIFFERENCES IN
HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES A WEAKENING IVAN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME
WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR JEANNE
TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVEN NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HR. WHILE THE
GFDL IS STILL A LEFT OUTLIER...IT HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY TO THE
RIGHT IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS.THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF
ALL THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SAVE THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE. WHILE THE OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OR CYCLONIC SHEAR
AXIS IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF JEANNE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE A
VARIETY OF IDEAS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...FROM
PERSISTING FOR THREE OR MORE DAYS TO QUICK DISSIPATION. MOST
LIKELY ENOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL CREATE ENOUGH SHEAR TO AT LEAST
SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR 48-72 HR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER THAT...JEANNE SHOULD MOVE INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. ANOTHER
COMPLICATION IS LAND INTERACTION. IF JEANNE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALL BETS WILL BE OFF ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS UNTIL JEANNE MOVES AWAY...AS EVEN SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS
THE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE COULD MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 18.4N 66.5W 60 KT...OVER PUERTO RICO
12HR VT 16/0600Z 18.8N 67.7W 65 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 16/1800Z 19.7N 69.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 20.6N 70.9W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 21.6N 72.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 23.5N 74.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 26.0N 76.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 29.5N 77.5W 85 KT

000
WTNT31 KNHC 152335
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST WED SEP 15 2004

...JEANNE NOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COAST
OF PUERTO RICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OCCURRING ON PUERTO RICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...AND ALONG
THE EASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABRERA SOUTHWARD
TO ISLA SAONA. THIS WARNING MAY BE EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABRERA
TO PUERTO PLATA...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TONIGHT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING THEACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U. S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST OR OVER
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO NEAR ISABELA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 90 MILES
...145 KM EAST OF EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AT NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. HOWEVER...A GENERAL MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST MOTION COULD BRING
THE CENTER OF JEANNE NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. AFTER THE TROPICAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO...SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND JEANNE COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
BETWEEN 8 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH CAMERIO IN THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE ISLAND HAVING RECEIVED MORE THAN 18 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ON
ST. CROIX...THE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS NOW ABOVE 12 INCHES. MANY
RIVERS ON PUERTO RICO ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...18.5 N... 67.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT41 KNHC 160258
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/8. JEANNE HAS ACTUALLY BEEN
MOVING DUE WEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE
PAST 4-5 HOURS...BUT A MORE REPRESENTATIVE 12-HOUR MOTION IS 295
DEGREES. ONCE JEANNE CLEARS THE TERRAIN EFFECTS OF THE WESTERN END
OF PUERTO RICO...IT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING BACK TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION...HOWEVER...COULD BRING JEANNE NEAR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THURSDAY. IN THE LONGER
TERM...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH OF JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN INTACT THROUGH AT 72-96 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS
DIVERGE WIDELY ON HOW AND IF THE RIDGE ERODES DUE TO IVAN STALLING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE GFS HAS BEEN VERIFYING THE BEST WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THE PAST 48 HOURS...AND IT MAINTAINS
MORE RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE AT 120 HOURS. WHETHER IVAN
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OR TURNS BACK SOUTHWESTWARD LIKE MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...SOME RIDGING SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY SINCE JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A SMALL CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OWING TO THE
MORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION...AND THE SPEED WAS DECREASED AFTER
96 HOURS SIMILAR TO THE GFS MODEL.

JEANNE HAS A WELL-DEFINED INNER-CORE CIRCULATION AND A WELL-DEFINED
EYE HAS EVEN APPEARED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. IF JEANNE WAS NOT
INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF PUERTO RICO...IT LIKELY WOULD
BE A HURRICANE. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE STRUCTURE IN BOTH RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA...JEANNE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY BECOME A HURRICANE
OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...POSSIBLE INTERACTION
WITH HISPANIOLA AND MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. AFTERWARDS...THOUGH...THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE AND
STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 18.5N 67.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 19.0N 68.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 20.0N 70.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 20.9N 72.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 22.0N 73.6W 70 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 23.6N 75.3W 75 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 26.0N 77.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 28.5N 78.0W 90 KT

795
WTNT31 KNHC 160853
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU SEP 16 2004

...JEANNE NEARING NORTHEAST COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
COASTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM LA PLATA SOUTHWARD TO ISLA
SAONA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ALONG
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM WEST OF PUERTO
PLATA WESTWARD TO MONTE CRISTO AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

AT 5 AM AST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST OR ABOUT
10 MILES ...15 KM...EAST OF CABO ENGANO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OR 270
MILES... 435 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS JEANNE HUGS THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE SUBSIDING ALONG THE COASTLINE OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE DAY.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
MORE THAN A FOOT OF RAIN...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...WITH NAGUABO IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND HAVING
RECEIVED MORE THAN 20 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE STILL POSSIBLE
OVER PUERTO RICO. MANY RIVERS ON PUERTO RICO ARE ALREADY AT OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...18.8 N... 68.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

000
WTNT41 KNHC 160902
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 295/8. JEANNE HAS ACTUALLY
BEEN MOVING DUE WEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE MONA PASSAGE FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...BUT A MORE
REPRESENTATIVE 24-HOUR MOTION IS 295 DEGREES. THIS MOTION...COULD
BRING JEANNE NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
LATER TODAY. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE JEANNE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HOURS BUT AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS WHICH HAS
IMPORTANT RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE LONGER FORECAST PERIODS. THE
GFDL...NOGAPS...UKMET AND GUNS END UP NEAR THE SOUTHEAST US
COASTLINE IN 120 HOURS. THE GFS TRACK MOVES A LOT SLOWER AND ALLOWS
AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE FROM THE NORTH TO BLOCK THE SYSTEM AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE IT WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN
THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK.

JEANNE HAS A WELL-DEFINED INNER-CORE CIRCULATION...AS SEEN BY THE
SAN JUAN RADAR...AND A WELL-DEFINED EYE IS VISIBLE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE LATEST RECON REPORTED A 989 MB PRESSURE AND A
DROPSONDE MEASURED A 63 KT SURFACE WIND IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL.
OBVIOUSLY...IT IS CLOSE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY BUT IS ABOUT TO
INTERACT WITH THE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THEREFORE...I AM GOING TO KEEP IT AT 60 KTS DURING THIS INTERACTION
AND MAKE IT A HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES AWAY FROM LAND IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY FORECASTS CALL FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT EVEN WITH THE MODERATE SHEAR FORECAST FOR THE SYSTEM IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE SHEAR SHOULD LESSEN IN THE LONGER RANGE AND
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 18.8N 68.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 19.4N 69.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 20.4N 70.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 21.2N 72.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 22.3N 74.2W 75 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 24.4N 77.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 27.0N 78.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 30.0N 79.0W 85 KT

000
WTNT41 KNHC 161506
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

AIRCRAFT AND DROPSONDE DATA THIS MORNING INDICATED THAT JEANNE
REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA.
PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 88 KT...AND MULTIPLE DROPSONDE SURFACE
ESTIMATES BETWEEN 63 AND 69 KT SUPPORT THE 70 KT INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE.

OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS JEANNE HAS BEEN MOVING 275/6. JEANNE IS
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE IS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER THIS INTERVAL. AFTER THAT
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF IVAN...WHICH COULD BE ANWHERE FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO CAPE HATTERAS IN THREE DAYS. THE MORE EASTERN
SOLUTIONS RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF JEANNE THROUGH 5
DAYS...AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND UKMET. MORE WESTWARD
TRACKS...TOWARD FLORIDA...ARE INDICATED BY THE GFDL...ECMWF...AND
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAK
IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND IT IS NOT YET POSSIBLE TO CONFIDENTLY CHOOSE
BETWEEN THE SCENARIOS OUTLINED ABOVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND REPRESENTS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EXTREMES OF THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. IT
IS QUITE CURIOUS THAT THE SUPERENSEMBLE 5-DAY POINT LIES TO THE
LEFT OF ALL OF ITS COMPONENTS...BUT THIS CAN HAPPEN GIVEN THE WAY
THAT BIAS-CORRECTING MODEL IS CONSTRUCTED.

JEANNE SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER HISPANIOLA...BUT
EVENTUALLY SHOULD COME UNDER LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN. THIS...AND THE WARM WATERS OF THE
BAHAMAS...SHOULD ALLOW RESTRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 18.8N 68.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 19.3N 70.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 20.2N 71.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 21.1N 73.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 22.0N 75.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 23.5N 76.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 26.5N 78.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 30.0N 79.5W 85 KT

000
WTNT31 KNHC 161743
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST THU SEP 16 2004

...HURRICANE JEANNE MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
PUERTO PLATA TO ISLA SAONA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE
INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM
CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS TO WEST OF PUERTO PLATA...AND
FROM ISLA SAONA TO SANTO DOMINGO.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM WEST OF PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO MONTE
CRISTO AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO. THESE WATCHES MAY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST OR INLAND ABOUT 65
MILES... 105 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

JEANNE IS MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JEANNE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JEAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY
AS A RESULT OF ITS ENCOUNTER WITH HISPANIOLA...BUT SHOULD REGAIN
HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 70 MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE SUBSIDING ALONG THE COASTLINE OF PUERTO RICO
DURING THE DAY.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY
HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TODAY.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...18.8 N... 69.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

578
WTNT41 KNHC 162035
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/7 AS JEANNE CONTINUES TO EDGE INLAND OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. DESPITE ITS TREK OVER
LAND...IT HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE VISIBLE ON THE
SAN JUAN NWS RADAR WITH EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES. CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED HOWEVER...AND IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE WINDS HAVE
DROPPED JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.

THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
RIGHT-LEANING GFS AND LEFT-LEANING GFDL MODELS. THIS
AFTERNOON...THE GFS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE GFDL SHIFTED
EASTWARD...SIGNIFICANTLY NARROWING THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
THAT THE REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST TO DEFLECT JEANNE'S TRACK TO THE RIGHT IN 2-3 DAYS.
HOWEVER...BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN ABOUT 5 DAYS
ARE EXPECTE TO PREVENT JEANNE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. WITH THE
FIVE DAY FORECAST POINT NEAR THE U.S. COASTLINE...THIS MIGHT BE A
GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE FIVE DAY NHC OFFICIAL
FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 375 MILES...IN OTHER WORDS...IT IS STILL
TOO SOON TO BE SURE WHAT PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES MIGHT BE
AFFECTED BY JEANNE.

THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT AROUND JEAN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGHLY
DIVERGENT FLOW THAT WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING AFTER JEANNE CLEARS
HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND
GFDL GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 19.0N 69.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 19.5N 70.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 20.4N 72.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 21.4N 73.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 22.5N 75.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 25.0N 77.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 28.5N 78.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 32.0N 80.5W 80 KT

$$

000
WTNT41 KNHC 170248
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

THE CENTER HAS BEEN MAINLY OVER LAND SINCE EARLIER TODAY...HOWEVER
RECENTLY A PORTION OF THE CORE HAS MOVED OVER A VERY SMALL AREA OF
WATER...THE BAHIA DE SAMANA ON THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES...THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE
IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RING OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING KEPT JUST BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH ON THIS ADVISORY SINCE MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS STILL
OVER LAND. IF THE CENTER MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE COAST BY
EARLY FRIDAY...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
WILL BE ABLE TO GET TO THE CENTER AND PROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE OF
THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS 200 MB WIND
FORECAST SUGGESTS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER
JEANNE...ASSUMING THAT IT MORE OR LESS FOLLOWS OUR FORECAST TRACK.
THIS WOULD TEND TO INHIBIT STRENGTHENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5. IF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF OUR TRACK...IT COULD
INTENSIFY FURTHER SINCE IT WOULD LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER
SHEAR.

THE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
NORTHWESTWARD WOBBLE NOTED SEVERAL HOURS AGO THAT BROUGHT THE
CENTER TO THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA. NOW THE MOTION APPEARS TO
BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ABOUT 295/5. A WEAK RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE STORM WILL BE THE MAIN STEERING FACTOR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS CERTAIN. AFTER
JEANNE MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS...THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF IVAN IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE...AND INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK.
THE GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY 5 DAYS. THIS MAKES IT UNLIKELY THAT
JEANNE WILL BE ABLE TO VEER OUT TO SEA...AND IN FACT IT MAY BE
FORCED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD BY THAT TIME. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO
TALK ABOUT WHAT PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST MAY BE
THREATENED.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 19.4N 69.7W 60 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 70.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 21.1N 72.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 22.3N 73.7W 70 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 23.6N 74.9W 75 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 26.5N 76.9W 80 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 29.5N 79.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 32.0N 81.0W 85 KT

700
WTNT41 KNHC 170828
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

BECAUSE THE CENTER IS INLAND NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...
THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE DID NOT PENETRATE THE EYE FEATURE BUT IT
MADE A RADAR FIX INSTEAD. THE CREW REPORTED THAT THE EYE WAS
CIRCULAR AND ROUGHLY 15 N MI IN DIAMETER. SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER
THE ECLIPSE SUGGEST THAT JEANNE IS NOT AS STRONG AS A FEW HOURS AGO
SINCE THE EYE FEATURE CAN NOT LONGER BE OBSERVED AND CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED. THIS WEAKENING DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND WAS
ANTICIPATED AND IN FACT...IT IS KIND OF SURPRISING THAT JEANNE HAS
KEPT SUCH A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD PATTERN AFTER BEING OVER LAND FOR A
ABOUT A DAY. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 55 KNOTS
BASED ON A MAX WIND FROM THE RECON OF 63 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT
JEANNE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH HISPANIOLA FOR 12 MORE HOURS AND IF
SURVIVES...IT COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS AS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT IS GOOD TO POINT OUT THAT...HISTORICALLY...
NOT MANY TROPICAL CYCLONES SURVIVE THE PATH ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF HISPANIOLA.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING BETWEEN THE WEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH WILL LIKELY STEER JEANNE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT
5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A STRONG
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND PARTIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN...WILL FORCE JEANNE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHWEST. IN 4 OR 5 DAYS...THE TRACK
FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH WILL BECOME REPLACED BY A RATHER STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH EVENTUALLY WOULD FORCE JEANNE WESTWARD.
THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IT IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION WHAT PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
MAY BE THREATENED BUT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGH RISK ALL
THE WAY FROM FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINAS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 19.5N 70.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 20.0N 70.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 21.3N 72.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 23.0N 74.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 25.0N 75.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 27.0N 76.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 28.5N 77.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 29.5N 80.0W 85 KT

000
WTNT41 KNHC 171420
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

THE CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED ON EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT
A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS FROM NORTHERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS STILL INLAND. A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS RAIN-FLAGGED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 60 KT
OVER WATER EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE ADVISORY INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 287/07 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE ERODING OVER THE NEXT
3 DAYS AS THE STRONG MID-LEVEL REMANT OF IVAN DROPS SOUTHWARD.
THIS RESULTS IN JEANNE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT LESS THAN 10
KT. AN INTERACTION BETWEEN JEANNE AND IVAN IS SUGGESTED BY DAY 3
AS THE CENTERS OF THE TWO SYSTEMS COME WITHIN ABOUT 700 N MI OF
EACH OTHER. MEANWHILE A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. WHICH CUTS OFF THE NORTHWARD MOTION OF JEANNE AND THE GFDL...
NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS SEND JEANNE MORE WESTWARD. THE GFS IS AN
EXCEPTION SHOWING A DUE NORTHWARD MOTION FOR 3 DAYS FOLLOWED BY
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A
LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST FOR 12 HOURS AND THEN
IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THEREAFTER IN AGREEMENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE MODEL.

WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST FOR 2 DAYS BY THE GFS MODEL FOLOWED
BY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SO JEANNE HAS ABOUT 2 DAYS TO
STRENGTHEN OVER WARM WATER AND THE FORECAST BRINGS THE WIND TO 80
KT BY DAY 3.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 19.5N 71.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 20.2N 72.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 22.2N 73.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 23.8N 74.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 25.0N 74.6W 70 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 28.0N 75.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 29.2N 77.3W 80 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 29.5N 80.0W 75 KT

000
WTNT41 KNHC 172045
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

A USAF RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT LOCATED THE CENTER JUST OFFSHORE FROM
HISPANIOLA WITH 1002 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF ONLY 34 KT NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
JEANNES INTERACTION WITH LAND HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL AND THE STORM IS
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASED ON THIS DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/08. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO
REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE FIRST 3 DAYS WITH A NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD
MOTION INTO A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF JEANNE. THE GFS AND GFDL EVEN SHOW SOME EASTWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION AFTER 2 DAYS. THEREAFTER THERE IS AN EASTWARD
SHIFT TO ALL OF THE GUIDANCE. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW A SLOW
WESTWARD DRIFT FOR 4 AND 5 DAYS WHILE THE GFDL AND GFS SHOW A
NORTHEAST OR EASTWARD MOTION. EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENS IS DEPENDENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE REMAINS OF IVAN AND THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON
THIS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES JEANNE NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD
FOR 3 DAYS AND THEN HOLDS THE MOTION STATIONARY SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT
EASTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IMPLIES A REDUCED
RISK TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE
MODEL SPREAD INDICATES INCREASED UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PARTICULAR FORECAST.

SOME OF THE CURRENT WEAKENING MAY ALSO BE DUE TO 18 KT OF VERTICAL
SHEAR AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. DECREASING SHEAR IS
FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS AND MOST GUIDANCE CALLS FOR MODEST
STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO 55 KT IN 48 HOURS
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH CALLED FOR A HURRICANE IN
36 HOURS BUT WHICH STARTED WITH A WIND SPEED THAT WAS 25 KT TOO
HIGH.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 20.2N 71.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 21.0N 73.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 22.0N 74.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 23.7N 74.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 25.8N 74.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 29.0N 75.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 29.0N 75.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 22/1800Z 29.0N 75.0W 50 KT

000
WTNT31 KNHC 172334
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2004

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS ...CROOKED ISLAND...THE
INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM
CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND ABOUT 100 MILES... 160
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

THE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
JEANNE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST
OF HISPANIOLA AS JEANNE MOVES AWAY.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF JEANNE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICE.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...20.1 N... 71.8 W. MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

Tropical Storm Jeanne Discussion Number 18


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2004



a USAF Reserve unit aircraft located the center just offshore from
Hispaniola with a 1000 mb central pressure and a maximum 1500 foot
flight level wind of 55 kt about 10 nmi north of the center.
Infrared satellite images show the very small and exposed low level
circulation center with the deep convection on the east side. The
westerly shear appears to be around 5 to 10 kts based upon the
latest UW CIMSS analysis. Based on this...and satellite intensity
estimates of 55 kts...Jeanne is upgraded back to a tropical storm
with a 40 kt wind maximum. Jeanne is very small and the 34 kt
surface winds extend out only about 15 nmi from the center in the
northern semi-Circle.

The initial motion estimate is 315/05...but the speed may be
generous...as the latest satellite images show that the system may
be slowing down again. The guidance is reasonably clustered out to
about 48 hours...except for the GFS which takes the system toward
the northeast and then...after 3 days...does a grand loop to the
right down to the south. The GFDL follows the GFS scenario but on a
more modest scale. On the left side we have the UKMET and NOGAPS
going off to the west or southwest. Since there is so much
uncertainty at the longer ranges I have done what the previous
forecaster did and moved along guidance consensus to the 3 day
position and left it there for day 4 and 5. Exactly what happens
is dependent on the evolution of the remains of Ivan and there is
disagreement on this. The model spread indicates increased
uncertainty associated with this particular forecast.

Surprisingly...the ships forecasts decreasing shear through 36 hours
but does not strengthen the system. The official forecast follows
the SHIPS guidance and gradually increases the system to 60 kts in
4 days.

Forecaster Jarvinen

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 18/0300z 20.4n 72.2w 40 kt
12hr VT 18/1200z 20.9n 72.9w 40 kt
24hr VT 19/0000z 22.2n 73.5w 40 kt
36hr VT 19/1200z 24.3n 73.9w 40 kt
48hr VT 20/0000z 26.3n 74.0w 45 kt
72hr VT 21/0000z 29.0n 74.0w 50 kt
96hr VT 22/0000z 29.0n 74.0w 60 kt
120hr VT 23/0000z 29.0n 74.0w 60 kt

137
WTNT41 KNHC 180901
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF IVAN. THE 00Z GFS BREAKS
OFF A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF IVAN AND TAKES IT SOUTHWESTWARD JUST OFF
THE CAROLINAS IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. IN THIS SCENARIO...JEANNE IS
LIFTED NORTHWARD AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THESE REMNANTS AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z NOGAPS
SCENARIO IS FOR IVAN'S MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO WEAKEN AND/OR TO
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...RESULTING IN JEANNE GETTING TRAPPED MORE
QUICKLY UNDER THE STRONG HIGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IN 3-5 DAYS. THE UKMET TRACK IS EVEN MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT A
CAPTURE. YET ONE THING ALL THESE MODELS HAVE IN COMMON IS AN
IMMEDIATE NORTHWARD MOTION OF A VERTICALLY WELL-CONNECTED TROPICAL
CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A EXPOSED CIRCULATION WITH ONLY A
LITTLE BIT OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...NOT ENOUGH TO
MAKE ONE THINK THAT JEANNE HAS MUCH VERTICAL COHERENCE. YET...THE
LAST TWO RECONNAISSANCE FIXES DID GIVE AN ALMOST DUE NORTHWARD
MOTION. WHETHER THE MODELS ARE SEEING SOMETHING I DON'T SEE...OR
WHETHER THE CENTER IS ONLY BEING DRAGGED TEMPORARILY TO THE RIGHT
BY THE CONVECTION IS NOT YET CLEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THINKING
IS THAT JEANNE IS NOT QUITE READY TO GO AS FAST TO THE NORTH AS THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING...BUT RATHER IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE SIMPLER BAM STEERING MODELS...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST 48
HOURS OR SO. IF JEANNE DOES IN FACT TURN NORTH ONLY SLOWLY...IT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FORCED BACK TO THE WEST BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE...IT IS PROBABLY OBVIOUS THAT
THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW 55 KT OF WIND AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 1500 FT.
IF JEANNE WERE A MORE CONVECTIVE STORM THAT WOULD CORRESPOND TO 45
KT AT THE SURFACE...BUT GIVEN THE PRESENT STRUCTURE I WILL HOLD THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT. JEANNE IS CURRENTLY JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...RESULTING IN MODERATE
WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. SHOULD JEANNE TURN
MORE NORTHWARD IT COULD FIND ITSELF UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER
PATTERN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WOULD
KEEP JEANNE UNDER UNFAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THUS IT WOULD
SEEM UNLIKELY THAT A STRONG SYSTEM COULD MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESS. IN FACT...A NOT UNREASONABLE
ALTERNATIVE TO THE FORECAST BELOW WOULD BE FOR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE...AS DEBBY DID IN
THIS AREA FOUR YEARS AGO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0900Z 20.7N 72.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 21.4N 73.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 22.4N 73.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 23.8N 73.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 25.5N 73.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 27.5N 73.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 22/0600Z 28.0N 73.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 23/0600Z 28.5N 74.5W 50 KT

000
WTNT41 KNHC 181435
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
JEANNE IS GRADUALLY RECOVERING FROM THE INTERACTION WITH
HISPANIOLA. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED UNDER THE INCREASING
CONVECTION AND T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. LATEST
AIRCRAFT MEASURED A FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 54 KNOTS AND GRAND TURK
HAS REPORTED 41 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW
AN UPPER-LOW SWINGING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF
JEANNE. THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN THE RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR
FOLLOWED BY SOME STRENGTHENING. JEANNE HAS THE CHANCE TO REGAIN
HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES
AGAIN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH BOTH SHIPS AND THE
GFDL.

JEANNE IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340
DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. A SHARP MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...PARTIALLY RELATED TO
IVAN...IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING EASTWARD CREATING A WEAKNESS TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE JEAN TO MOVE ON A
GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A
RATHER STRONG HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE THE TROUGH AND DEPENDING
HOW FAR NORTH JEANNE MOVES...THE CYCLONE COULD BE BLOCKED AND MOVE
WESTWARD OR COULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE TROUGH. SINCE
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN GLOBAL MODELS BEYOND 3 DAYS...THE BEST
OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP JEAN NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. IN FACT...THE GFS KEEP THE
CYCLONE LOOPING WITHIN THIS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 21.4N 73.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 22.2N 73.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 23.5N 73.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 25.0N 73.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 26.5N 73.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 28.0N 73.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 29.0N 73.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 29.1N 73.0W 65 KT

293
WTNT41 KNHC 182034
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
JEANNE THAT WAS TRACKED SINCE IT MOVED AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA HAS RUN
WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...AND IS DISSIPATING. SURFACE DATA
FROM THE BAHAMAS AND FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT A
NEW CENTER HAS REFORMED UNDER THE CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION. THIS BY NO MEANS INDICATES A
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM GRAND
TURK. AN UPPER-LOW WHICH GLOBAL MODELS WERE FORECASTING TO MOVE
SOUTH AND WEAKEN...INSTEAD MOVED OVER THE CYCLONE AND AMPLYFIED...
DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. THIS RESULTED IN WEAKENING. NOW THIS
NEW CENTER LOCATION IS UNDER A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
AND GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYLONE OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING AS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GOES ALONG WITH BOTH SHIPS
AND THE GFDL MODELS.

THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. IT IS ONLY BEING
SHIFTED EASTWARD DUE TO THE REFORMATION. JEANNE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 3
DAYS. THEREAFTER...A RATHER STRONG HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE THE
TROUGH AND DEPENDING HOW FAR NORTH JEANNE MOVES...THE CYCLONE COULD
BE BLOCKED AND MOVE WESTWARD OR COULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH. SINCE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN GLOBAL MODELS BEYOND
3 DAYS...THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP JEANNE NEARLY
STATIONARY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS AT DAYS THREE THROUGH
FIVE. IN FACT...NOW ALL THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS...THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP THE CYCLONE LOOPING WITHIN THIS REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD OR LONGER.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 22.0N 72.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 22.9N 72.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 24.1N 72.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 25.7N 72.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 27.0N 72.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 28.5N 71.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 28.5N 71.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 28.5N 71.5W 65 KT

466
WTNT41 KNHC 190237
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT JEANNE IS POORLY ORGANIZED...POSSIBLY
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY JUST SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED FROM
THE NEW CENTER THAT FORMED THIS AFTERNOON TO THE OLD CENTER...WHICH
HAS MOVED EASTWARD AND IS NOW BETWEEN GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND
HAITI. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY WELL-REMOVED TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1002
MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 44 KT WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE NEW CENTER. BASED ON THIS...THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 40
KT...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 360/5. IF JEANNE IS NOT
ACTUALLY YET MOVING NORTH...IT WILL BE SOON AS SATELLITE...
RAWINSONDE...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK BUT DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER FLORIDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS
OF IVAN. THIS HAS ERODED THE RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF JEANNE
AND SHOULD ALLOW A NORTHWARD MOTION. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN POSSIBLY BECOME A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE FIRST 72 HR OF THE FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...BEING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND ALONG THE
LEFT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF DYNAMICAL MODELS. AFTER 72 HR...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF JEANNE IN THE WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC PROVINCES. THIS SHOULD BLOCK THE
NORTHWARD MOTION AND COULD TURN JEANNE BACK WESTWARD BY 120 HR.
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LOOPS OF VARIOUS SIZES AND SPEEDS...
WITH 120 HR POSITIONS BETWEEN 67W AND 76W. THE FORECAST TRACK FOR
72-120 HR WILL NOT CALL FOR A COMPLETE LOOP...BUT WILL SHOW A
HALF-LOOP THAT IS SMALLER AND SLOWER THAN THAT OF THE GUIDANCE.
OBVIOUSLY...THE 96 AND 120 HR FORECASTS HAVE A HIGHER THAN NORMAL
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALSO HAS HIGH UNCERTAINTY. IN THE SHORT
TERM...THE BROAD CIRCULATION AND THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER WILL AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN ABOUT 24 HR...BUT
BY THAT TIME JEANNE MAY BE PASSING OVER THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
WAKE OF FRANCES...WHERE SST ANALYSES INDICATE TEMPERATURES BELOW
28C IN SOME AREAS. THIS MAY COUNTER THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. AFTER 48-72 HR...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND
JEANNE MAY INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT...BOTH OF WHICH WOULD LIMIT
STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BOTH TAKE JEANNE TO 65-70
KT MAXIMUM WINDS IN 48-72 HR FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 22.4N 72.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 23.4N 72.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 24.8N 72.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 26.3N 72.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 27.4N 71.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 28.0N 71.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 27.5N 70.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 27.0N 71.0W 65 KT

819
WTNT41 KNHC 190839
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING JEANNE
AND THEY FOUND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL...1500 FT...OF 53 KT ABOUT 50 N MI
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. USING A STANDARD REDUCTION FOR THIS
ALTITUDE GIVES A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 40-45 KT. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING AWAY FROM THE DISRUPTING INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND CURRENTLY SEEMS TO BE ESTABLISHING A
BETTER-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THEREFORE SOME
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS JEANNE EVENTUALLY RESTRENGTHENING INTO A
HURRICANE... AS DO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFS
200 MB WIND FOREAST SHOWS FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...IMPLYING
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR...OVER THE AREA WHERE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN 72 HOURS. JEANNE MAY HAVE TO OVERCOME A
RATHER HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ON ITS WAY TO REGAINING
HURRICANE STATUS.

BASED ON THE RECON FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/6. A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSUAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND TURN JEANNE NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER...IN 2-3 DAYS...THIS TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BYPASS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THIS HIGH IS PREDICTED...BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...
TO BLOCK THE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF JEANNE...AND CAUSE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO EXECUTE A CLOCKWISE LOOP. THIS OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE WIDER LOOP THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT
HAS THE SAME GENERAL IDEA. IT SHOULD BE REPEATED THAT THIS IS A
LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

SINCE JEANNE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND HAS
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST
QUADRANTS...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS INTENDS TO DISCONTINUE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS SHORTLY.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 23.2N 72.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 24.1N 72.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 25.5N 72.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 27.0N 71.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 28.0N 70.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 27.0N 70.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 26.0N 70.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 26.0N 71.5W 65 KT

000
WTNT41 KNHC 191430
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES DEFINITELY SHOW THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LARGE AND BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE
ARE CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...JEANNE LACKS
AN INNER CORE WHICH IS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER CYCLONE.
THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK JEANNE LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS OF LOW SHEAR AND THE LARGE CIRCULATION...SOME
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
VERY HOSTILE WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH JEANNE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED ONLY TO 65
KNOTS IN THE FORECAST WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS.

THE LARGE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 4
KNOTS AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
THERE IS CONFIDENCE THAT THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...IN ABOUT 3 DAYS THE STEERING
CURRENTS WILL WEAKEN AND JEANNE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE
LONG RANGE...THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. FOR EXAMPLE...RECENT
RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN AN EASTWARD AND A
WESTWARD TRACK...AND SOLUTIONS FROM THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
NOT BEEN ANY MORE CONCLUSIVE. THE LATEST FIVE DAY FORECAST POINTS
OF THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS ARE ABOUT 1200 N MI APART. IN SUCH
CASES...THE BEST OPTION IS TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MEANDERING IN
BETWEEN THE TWO EQUALLY VALID MODEL OPTIONS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 23.5N 72.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 24.8N 72.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 26.5N 71.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 27.5N 70.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 27.5N 70.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 26.5N 70.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 26.0N 70.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 26.0N 71.5W 65 KT

192
WTNT41 KNHC 192039
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

A NOAA AIRCRAFT IS IN THE STORM AND REPORTS STEP FREQUENCY MICROWAVE
RADIOMETER SURFACE WINDS NEAR 45 KT ALONG WITH 996 MB CENTRAL
PRESSURE. THE ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW AND BANDING. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BRING JEANNE TO A
HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH NOT AS AGGRESSIVELY AS THE GUIDANCE. THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO
SHOWS SOME RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING JEANNE IN 36
HOURS...SO WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/07. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOW NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR 48 HOURS
INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A HUGE LOW
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AFTER THAT...JEANNE
GETS FAIRLY CLOSE TO KARL AND THEY COULD INTERACT. IN ANY CASE...A
VERY SLOW MOTION IS INDICATED AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS
SHOWING A SLOW GENERALLY EASTWARD MOTION.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 24.5N 72.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 25.5N 72.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 26.7N 71.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 27.3N 70.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 27.2N 69.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 26.5N 68.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 26.5N 68.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 27.0N 67.5W 65 KT

147
WTNT41 KNHC 200234
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FOUND 60 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 925 MB
ABOUT 25 N MI FROM THE CENTER IN BOTH THE NORTHEASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS...ALONG WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 994 MB.
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON
THE AIRCRAFT WERE NEAR 50 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS
INCREASED TO 50 KT. WHILE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS INCREASED AND
MOVED CLOSER TO THE CENTER SINCE YESTERDAY...THE STORM IS STILL NOT
THAT WELL ORGANIZED AS REFLECTED IN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 KT. CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS POOR IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND FAIR
TO GOOD ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/7...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION DURING THE NOAA
FLIGHT WAS CLOSER TO 030/7. JEANNE IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST. TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THIS PATTERN SHOULD GRADUALLY
TURN JEANNE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 36 HR. SERIOUS MODEL DIVERGENCE
THEN ARISES. THE GFS AND GUIDANCE BASED ON IT...INCLUDING THE
GFDL...MARCH JEANNE STEADILY TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST
SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THROUGH 120 HR...WITH THE GFS
SHOWING JEANNE FOLLOW KARL NORTHEASTWARD TO HIGHER LATITUDES. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS TURN JEANNE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH ABOUT 96 HR AS KARL PASSES TO THE EAST AND A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN MOVE IT NORTHWEST
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. AT THE MOMENT...IT CANNOT BE DETERMINED
WHICH OF THESE TWO OPTIONS WILL VERIFY. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES AND
CALL FOR A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT AFTER 36 HR. THIS CONTINUES TO BE A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. FOR NOW...THE UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE AND THE BROAD CIRCULATION SHOULD GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATE. AFTER 24-36 HR...THE GFS AND THE NOGAPS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES IMPACTING JEANNE. DESPITE
SHOWING MORE THAN 20 KT OF SHEAR...THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THIS PERIOD AS DOES THE GFDL. ANOTHER
COMPLICATION IS THAT THE COLD FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH JEANNE IN
ABOUT 36 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO 70
KT BY 48 HR...WHICH IS LESS THAN THE 78 KT FROM SHIPS OR THE 86 KT
FROM THE GFDL. AFTER 48 HR...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BECOME
HOSTILE ENOUGH TO STOP INTENSIFICATION AND CAUSE SLIGHT WEAKENING.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 25.2N 72.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 26.2N 71.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 27.0N 71.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 27.3N 70.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 27.0N 69.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 26.5N 68.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 26.5N 68.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 27.0N 67.5W 60 KT