SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING ABOUT ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL
BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.

000

WHXX01 KWBC 161802

CHGHUR



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE (AL122004) ON 20040916 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

040916 1800 040917 0600 040917 1800 040918 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 11.2N 32.1W 11.8N 34.4W 12.4N 36.7W 12.9N 38.7W

BAMM 11.2N 32.1W 11.6N 34.4W 12.2N 36.6W 12.6N 38.5W

A98E 11.2N 32.1W 11.6N 34.9W 11.9N 37.7W 11.6N 40.5W

LBAR 11.2N 32.1W 11.7N 34.8W 12.3N 37.5W 12.9N 40.3W

SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 47KTS 56KTS

DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 47KTS 56KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

040918 1800 040919 1800 040920 1800 040921 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 13.2N 40.6W 13.3N 43.5W 14.3N 44.8W 17.5N 44.6W

BAMM 13.1N 39.9W 13.7N 41.7W 16.2N 42.8W 20.5N 44.4W

A98E 10.6N 43.0W 9.7N 46.7W 8.6N 49.7W 7.4N 52.3W

LBAR 13.2N 43.1W 13.6N 48.1W 14.0N 51.6W 13.4N 52.3W

SHIP 66KTS 81KTS 91KTS 99KTS

DSHP 66KTS 81KTS 91KTS 99KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 32.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 29.3W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 14KT

LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 26.4W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

850
WTNT42 KNHC 162042
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...T2.0 FROM SAB AND T2.5 FROM TAFB...ALONG
WITH SHIP REPORTS SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...SUPPORT
INITIATING ADVISORIES ON THE DISTURBANCE IN THE FAR EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE DEPRESSION HAS GOOD BANDING TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER AND A STRONGLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST IN ACCORD WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14. STEERING FOR THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY BEING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOW A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS THAT
SHOULD DEFLECT THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD. THE BAMS...GFS... AND GFDL
ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 11.4N 32.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 11.8N 34.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 12.1N 36.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 12.5N 38.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 12.8N 40.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 14.0N 42.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 16.5N 44.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 20.5N 45.0W 95 KT

120
WTNT32 KNHC 162043
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 16 2004

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE IN
THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 32.8 WEST OR ABOUT
670 MILES...1080 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH
...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...11.4 N... 32.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 2


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 16, 2004



conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate Tropical
Depression Twelve has become much better organized during the past
6 hours. Dvorak intensity estimates are 45 kt from TAFB and 35 kt
Fram SAB. A 16/1950z Quikscat overpass indicated some 25-30 kt
uncontaminated wind speeds...with only a few rain-contaminated
40-kt winds. Therefore...the depression is only being upgraded to
35-kt Tropical Storm Karl.
The initial motion is 280/12. A slight southward adjustment to the
initial position was made based on recent microwave satellite
positon estimates. NHC model guidance remains in excellent
agreement on a general west to west-northwestward motion around the
southern periphery of the strong subtropical ridge to the north for
the next 48 hours. After that...a deep mid-latitude trough is
forecast by all of the models to dig southward...to varying
degrees...and weaken the ridge to the northwest of Karl. This
allows the cyclone to gradually turn northweastward and eventually
northward. Due to the uncertainty in both the timing and magnitude
of the development of this large mid-/upper-level trough...the
forecast motion was slowed slightly after 72 hours. The official
track is slightly left of the previous rtack...to account for the
more southward initial position...and is close to the NHC model
consensus.
There is no change to the previous intensity forecast or reasoning.
Karl has a tight inner-core wind field and a very favorable outflow
pattern already...so a slightly faster rate of intensification is
expected during the next 36 hours. After that...increasing easterly
shear may slow the development process through 72 hours...with
steady intensification resuming again after that.

Forecaster Stewart


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 17/0300z 11.4n 33.9w 35 kt
12hr VT 17/1200z 11.7n 35.5w 45 kt
24hr VT 18/0000z 12.1n 37.4w 55 kt
36hr VT 18/1200z 12.5n 39.3w 65 kt
48hr VT 19/0000z 13.2n 41.1w 70 kt
72hr VT 20/0000z 15.5n 44.0w 75 kt
96hr VT 21/0000z 18.5n 45.5w 85 kt
120hr VT 22/0000z 22.0n 46.5w 95 kt

481
WTNT42 KNHC 170830
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KARL IS STRENGTHENING
RATHER QUICKLY. THE SYSTEM HAS A CDO FEATURE NEAR THE CENTER AND A
NICE BAND WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE WEST SIDE INTO THE CDO. THERE
IS SUPERB OUTFLOW TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTH. ALSO...THE SSTS AT
THESE LATITUDES REACH THEIR MAXIMUM VALUES IN MID-SEPTEMBER.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. AN
OBJECTIVE ODT CALCULATED A 77 KT WIND SPEED. THE SUM OF THIS
INFORMATION IS THE BASIS FOR BRINGING THE SYSTEM UP TO 55 KTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14. ALMOST NOTHING HAS CHANGED SINCE THE
LAST PACKAGE. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON
A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
ALL OF THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD...TO VARYING DEGREES...AND
WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KARL. THIS ALLOWS THE CYCLONE
TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS SHIPS WANT TO MAKE THE SYSTEM
A HURRICANE RATHER QUICKLY AND INTENSIFY IT TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN
ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO
WITH THE SHIPS FORECAST WEIGHTED IN THE EARLY GOING...THUS MAKING
THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 11.5N 35.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 11.8N 36.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 12.2N 38.8W 75 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 12.8N 40.6W 85 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 13.7N 42.2W 95 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 16.2N 44.8W 105 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 19.3N 46.3W 115 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 23.0N 47.0W 115 KT

000
WTNT42 KNHC 171427
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

WHILE KARL HAS A GOOD SKELETAL BANDING STRUCTURE THERE IS NOT MUCH
MEAT ON THOSE BONES. THE BANDS...WHILE WELL DEFINED...ARE VERY
THIN...AND THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 09Z SHOWED VERY LITTLE WIND FOR A
SYSTEM WITH THIS KIND OF STRUCTURE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 45 KT TO 65 KT. I WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
INTENSITY OF 55 KT BUT IT'S PROBABLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...KARL'S
STRUCTURE AS WELL AS ITS ENVIRONMENT FAVORS SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. KARL HAS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN...WATERS WILL
BE WARM AND THE SHEAR LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REQUIRES THAT KARL BE
RELOCATED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION IS
290/9. KARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT SHOULD RECURVE KARL BY LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS FASTER WITH THE NORTHWARD
MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IS STILL SLOWER
THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 12.3N 35.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 12.9N 37.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 13.7N 38.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 14.6N 40.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 15.5N 41.5W 90 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 18.0N 44.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 45.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 27.5N 45.5W 100 KT

000
WTNT42 KNHC 172026
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE STRUCTURE OF KARL THIS
AFTERNOON. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE ALL CONVERGING ON T3.5 AND I WILL
HOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 55 KT. KARL RETAINS
WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOWS
STRONG ANTICYCLONIC AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. WHILE KARL MARKS
TIME OVER WARM WATERS IT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 320/12...AS KARL HAS BEEN EXECUTING AN
UNEXPECTED RIGHT TURN TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ABOUT 850 NM NORTH OF KARL...WHICH MIGHT ACCOUNT
FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD MOTION. THERE IS STILL A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...SO I DON'T THINK THIS IS THE
BEGINNING OF RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A
CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS UNTIL KARL
APPROACHES A LARGE AND POWERFUL DEEP-LAYER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AT THAT TIME KARL SHOULD BE STEERED
NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 13.4N 36.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 14.4N 37.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 15.3N 39.0W 75 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 16.3N 40.4W 85 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 17.2N 41.8W 90 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 44.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 23.5N 46.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 22/1800Z 29.5N 46.0W 95 KT

831
WTNT42 KNHC 180245
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

KARL HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AS OUTER
BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED. A 17/2148Z SSMI OVERPASS SUGGESTS
THAT KARL MAY POSSESS A VERY SMALL EYE...AND THIS WAS LATER
SUPPORTED BY A 17/2317Z TRMM OVERPASS. WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB...65 KT FROM SAB...AND 55 KT FROM
AFWA...I AM A LITTLE RELUCTANT TO DESIGNATE KARL AS A HURRICANE AT
THIS TIME DUE TO THE LACK OF PERSISTENT ORGANIZATION AND DEPTH OF
THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION...WHICH MAY BE DUE TO DRY AIR WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING
INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTIVE TOPS
BEGIN COOLING AGAIN...THEN THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/12. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. KARL APPEARS TO BE MAKING A
LITTLE MORE OF A WESTWARD BEND...BUT IS BASICALLY ON TRACK. THE NHC
18Z GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED AND HAS MADE A SLIGHT
SWING TO THE LEFT. HOWEVER...THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHILE TIGHTLY
PACKED...HAS ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY WELL TO THE LEFT OF TRACK AND
DID NOT PICK UP THE JOG TO THE RIGHT EARLIER TODAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN
SURROUNDING KARL...SO THE FORECAST TRACK WAS NOT BROUGHT AS FAR TO
THE WEST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BY 72 HOURS...A STRONG HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
AND EASTERN CANADA AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG
RIDGING. THE RESULT IS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
KARL SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND ALLOW FOR MORE NORTHWARD MOTION.

KARL ALREADY HAS VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C...STEADY
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 96 HOURS IS EXPECTED... AND KARL COULD EVEN
BECOME THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON BY 72 HOURS. AFTER
96 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO INITIATE WEAKENING.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.2N 37.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.0N 38.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 15.9N 40.2W 75 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 16.9N 42.0W 85 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 43.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 45.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 25.5N 47.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 31.0N 46.5W 95 KT

403
WTNT32 KNHC 180828
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT SEP 18 2004

...KARL RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE
2004 ATLANTIC SEASON...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.6 WEST OR ABOUT 975 MILES
...1570 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KARL POSES NO IMMEDIATE
THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 75 MILES...120 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...14.9 N... 38.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 981 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

870
WTNT42 KNHC 180851
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

KARL HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO BASED ON
THE APPEARANCE OF A SMALL BUT DISTINCT 10 NMI DIAMETER EYE IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KT...77 KT
...AND 65 KT...FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/13. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS QUITE CONSISTENT ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS KARL MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BY 72 HOURS...A
STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA...WHICH
CAUSES A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KARL. THE LARGE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
KARL...WHICH ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BEGIN RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST A TAD TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS
CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER KARL REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH
THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS ELONGATED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND OUTWARD IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...SUGGESTING THAT ANY RESTRICTION THAT HAS
CREATED THE ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. KARL
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS DUE TO THE SMALL INNER-CORE WIND FIELD...GOOD OUTFLOW PATTERN
...AND WARM SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C. AFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY TREND
IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LESS ROBUST AND IS LEVELED OFF BY 72
HOURS WHEN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN SHIPS THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND THEN MUCH LOWER
AFTER THAT...SINCE THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS KARL UP TO 125 KT IN 72H.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0900Z 14.9N 38.6W 75 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 15.8N 40.3W 90 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 16.8N 42.4W 100 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 18.1N 44.1W 105 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 19.7N 45.3W 110 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 23.0N 46.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 22/0600Z 26.5N 47.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 23/0600Z 31.0N 45.5W 90 KT

000
WTNT42 KNHC 181419
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10 ALTHOUGH THE FORWARD SPEED HAS BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARL
WHICH BECOMES ERODED BY 72 HOURS FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS FOR A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

KARL IS LOOKING GOOD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A SMALL WELL-DEFINED
EYE AND BANDING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102/90/77 KT FROM
TAFB/SAB/KGWC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KT. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS
AFTER WHICH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL
EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.2N 39.3W 90 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 16.1N 40.7W 100 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.1N 42.9W 110 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 17.9N 44.7W 115 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 19.0N 46.5W 115 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 21.8N 48.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 27.0N 48.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 34.0N 45.0W 90 KT

587
WTNT42 KNHC 182012
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

THE FORECAST REASONING IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BE ERODED BY AN
APPROACHING AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. THIS
WILL ALLOW KARL TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ERODED
RIDGE AND THEN MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 4 OR 5. ONLY THE
GFS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102/90/90 KT FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT. KARL CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A SMALL WELL-DEFINED EYE...BANDING FEATURES
AND OUTFLOW. THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS STABLE...BUT
THE OUTER BANDING DEEP CONVECTION COMES AND GOES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND INCREASES THE WIND SPEED TO
115 KT IN 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND
WEAKENING AFTER 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 15.9N 40.2W 95 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.7N 41.6W 105 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.6N 43.8W 110 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.4N 45.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 47.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 22.5N 48.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 27.0N 48.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 33.0N 45.0W 85 KT

291
WTNT42 KNHC 190238
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

KARL HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
DIRECTION AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING AT 290/10. THE FORECAST REASONING
IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
KARL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BE ERODED BY AN APPROACHING
AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. THIS WILL ALLOW
KARL TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ERODED RIDGE AND
THEN MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 4 OR 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102/102/90 KT FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT. THIS MAKES KARL THE FIFTH
MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2004 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT THE EYE DIAMETER HAS GOTTEN
SMALLER DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...SUGGESTING THAT THE STORM IS
STRENGTHENING...WHICH THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ABOVE CONFIRM. A
2357Z MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO GAVE SUPPORTING EVIDENCE FOR
THIS...SHOWING A DOUBLE EYEWALL WITH THE INNER EYE JUST ABOUT TO
COLLAPSE AND DISAPPEAR. THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE SCENARIO
REQUIRES THE WIND SPEED TO DECREASE AS THE OUTER EYE BECOMES
DOMINANT AND REPLACES THE DISAPPEARING INNER ONE. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT THE 12 HOUR TIME FRAME.
SURPRISINGLY THE GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES HAVE THIS
SCENARIO...WHICH THE SHIPS DOES NOT. BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS HAVE
KARL BACK TO MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT THE 12 TO 24 HOUR TIME
FRAME. ADDITIONAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE POSSIBLE.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.2N 41.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 16.6N 42.8W 90 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 17.4N 44.8W 105 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 18.2N 46.7W 110 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 19.3N 48.1W 115 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 49.4W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 28.0N 48.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 34.0N 44.0W 85 KT

807
WTNT42 KNHC 190841
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10. KARL IS MOVING SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE APPROACH OF A LARGE AND POWERFUL
MID-LATITUDE COLD LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH A
TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE COLD LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE SMALL EYE PREVIOUSLY
OBSERVED. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE
PASSES...INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL MAY BE
STARTING TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 100 KT BASED ON DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM AFWA AND TAFB.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
TO SUPPORT A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 16.3N 42.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 16.9N 43.7W 100 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 17.7N 45.7W 105 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 18.7N 47.4W 110 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 20.0N 48.5W 115 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 24.0N 49.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 29.5N 47.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 37.5N 42.5W 90 KT

000
WTNT42 KNHC 191414
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/09. KARL IS MOVING SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH THE APPROACH OF A LARGE AND POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE COLD LOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A TRACK AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION IN FORWARD
SPEED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE COLD LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE EYE IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND IS
EMBEDDED IN A PERSISTENT COLD CDO FEATURE. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 115/102/102 KT FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC AND THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 110 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES 15 KT
OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS 10 KT UNDER
LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS FOR 10 MORE KT...BUT THE WIND SPEED COULD CERTAINLY GO
HIGHER.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 16.4N 42.9W 110 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 16.8N 44.3W 115 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 17.7N 46.1W 120 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 18.9N 47.3W 120 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 20.6N 48.4W 120 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 25.4N 48.9W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 32.5N 46.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 41.0N 42.0W 90 KT

717
WTNT42 KNHC 192034
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

KARL HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW A CLASSICAL CAPE VERDE HURRICANE WITH PROMINENT BANDING
FEATURES...EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A WELL-DEFINED EYE. THREE-HOUR
AVERAGE ODT'S ARE NEAR T6.3...120 KT...AGREEING WELL WITH TAFB'S
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION OF T6.0. IN ADDITION... A 1707 UTC
CIMSS/NESDIS AMSU PRESSURE ALGORITHM ESTIMATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 941 MB. THE ESTIMATED WINDS ARE RAISED TO 115 KT AND THE
PRESSURE IS SET TO 944 MB IN BETWEEN THE AMSU AND DVORAK ESTIMATES.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED.. 290/9. WATER VAPOR
IMAGES SHOW A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARL WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD... A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 57W IS FORECAST TO
ERODE THE RIDGE AND PULL THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD ON A RATHER SHARP
RECURVATURE EAST OF 50W. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL
CONSENSUS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT LONGER RANGES WHETHER KARL
WILL BE ABSORBED BY A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OR REMAINS A SEPARATE ENTITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REFLECTS THE LATTER POSSIBILITY WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK POSSIBLE
AT LONG RANGES IF THE ABSORPTION SCENARIO OCCURS.

KARL IS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WITH LITTLE
SHEAR. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 48
HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL
FOR THE CYCLONE. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT KARL WILL BE MOVING
OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER NEAR ITS RECURVATURE POINT AND THE WIND
SPEED FORECAST COULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE.

FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 17.0N 44.0W 115 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 17.6N 45.5W 120 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 18.5N 47.2W 125 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 19.9N 48.3W 125 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 21.7N 49.1W 125 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 27.5N 48.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 35.0N 45.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 44.0N 40.5W 80 KT

341
WTNT22 KNHC 200233
TCMAT2
HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122004
0300Z MON SEP 20 2004

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 45.1W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE 225SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 45.1W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 44.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.9N 46.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.2N 48.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.7N 49.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.8N 50.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.9N 49.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 35.5N 46.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 46.0N 42.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 45.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

FORECASTER JARVINEN

148
WTNT42 KNHC 200234
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

KARL SEEMS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF FOR NOW. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB/SAB/KGWC ARE 115/102/102 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THE APPEARANCE OF
THE SYSTEM OVER ALL IS EXCELLENT AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN AT 115 KNOTS.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED...290/10. WATER VAPOR
IMAGES SHOW A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARL WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD... A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 57W IS FORECAST TO
ERODE THE RIDGE AND PULL THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD ON A RATHER SHARP
RECURVATURE NEAR 50W. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL
CONSENSUS.

KARL IS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WITH LITTLE
SHEAR. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 48
HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL
FOR THE CYCLONE. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT KARL WILL BE MOVING
OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER NEAR ITS RECURVATURE POINT WHERE THE
MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS OFTEN REACHED.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 17.2N 45.1W 115 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 17.9N 46.5W 120 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 19.2N 48.2W 125 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 20.7N 49.5W 130 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 22.8N 50.3W 130 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 28.9N 49.4W 115 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 35.5N 46.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 46.0N 42.0W 80 KT

468
WTNT42 KNHC 200832
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004

AS IT DID LAST NIGHT ABOUT THIS TIME...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
KARL HAS DETERIORATED A BIT...WITH THE EYE BECOMING LESS DISTINCT
AND A SPREADING OUT OF THE COLDEST CORE CLOUD TOPS. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM NEAR 0Z THAT SUGGESTED
ANOTHER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WAS OCCURRING. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 110 KT...BUT KARL WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE IT IS
OVER WARM WATER AND UNDER LIGHT SHEAR. AFTER THAT...WESTERLY SHEAR
FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL EXTRATROPICAL TROUGH WILL BE
ENCOUNTERED FIRST...FOLLOWED BY COLDER SSTS NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A STILL POTENT KARL MERGES WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY. KARL IS EXPECTED TO SOON BEGIN TO MAKE A RIGHT TURN
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.
THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A BIT OF A BEND TO THE LEFT TO REFLECT
MORE OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 17.3N 45.5W 110 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 17.9N 46.8W 110 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 19.3N 48.4W 120 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 21.1N 49.6W 125 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 23.5N 50.0W 125 KT
72HR VT 23/0600Z 29.5N 48.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 24/0600Z 38.0N 44.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 25/0600Z 49.0N 43.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

655
WTNT42 KNHC 201448
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KARL IS NOT AS CIRCULAR AS YESTERDAY
WITH THE CLOUD SHIELD SHOWING ASYMMETRIES IN THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS SOME SHEAR IS
PRESENT...CONFIRMED BY THE GFS AND CIMSS ANALYSES SHOWING ABOUT
10-15 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE CLOUD PATTERN NEAR THE
INNER CORE REMAINS RAGGED AND T-NUMBERS ARE FALLING. HOWEVER A
RECENT SSMI OVERPASS SHOWED NO EVIDENCE OF THE INNER EYEWALL SEEN
ON EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE PREVIOUS
EYEWALL CYCLE IS COMPLETE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE EYE WAS ALSO OPEN
ON THE SOUTH SIDE. GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS...THE INTENSITY IS
DECREASED A BIT TO 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 54W IS APPROACHING THE CYCLONE.
THE GFS INDICATES THAT SHEAR WILL REMAIN NEAR CURRENT LEVELS UNTIL
AFTER 24 HOURS WHEN THE TROUGH RETROGRADES AWAY FROM KARL. THIS
SCENARIO SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF VERY LOW SHEAR OVER WARM WATER
NEAR THE CYCLONE'S RECURVATURE POINT... ALL INGREDIENTS FOR
INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN INCREASED BASED ON A 0900 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS AND THIS
LARGE SIZE IS HELD CONSTANT THOUGH THE PERIOD.

KARL IS STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS BUT
RECENT SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT A MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION
MAY HAVE BEGUN. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND BECOME ANCHORED
ALONG 55W. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS IN BETWEEN CONU AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A BIT OF A BEND TO THE LEFT BEYOND 3 DAYS TO
REFLECT A DEEP MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE CAPTURING KARL RATHER THAN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAYING A SEPARATE ENTITY.

FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 17.9N 46.3W 105 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 18.7N 47.4W 105 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 20.4N 48.8W 110 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 49.7W 120 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 25.0N 49.8W 120 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 32.0N 47.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 41.0N 44.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 25/1200Z 51.0N 45.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

688
WTNT42 KNHC 202032
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004

CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE INTENSE AROUND KARL'S EYEWALL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE EYE BECOMING A BIT BETTER-DEFINED. HOWEVER A
1657 UTC AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED THE EYEWALL WAS STILL OPEN
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH
SINCE THIS MORNING AND THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 105 KT.
MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL BE STEADY OR DECREASING FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR KARL TO
REINTENSIFY. SSTS ARE ALSO INCREASING UP TO NEAR 84F IN ITS PATH.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CALLING FOR
MAXIMUM INTENSITY NEAR THE CYCLONE'S RECURVATURE POINT. WEAKENING
IS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS UNDER DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING
SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL
BEGIN AROUND 96 HOURS THEN FORMING A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN
ABOUT 5 DAYS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

KARL HAS MADE THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE NW... NOW MOVING 305/10 KT.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG ALONG
55W AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
ON RECURVATURE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AROUND 50W. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BETWEEN CONU AND THE GFS.

12 FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY MODIFIED AFTER CONSULTATION WITH
THE ATLANTIC FORECASTER IN TAFB.

FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.6N 47.1W 105 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 19.8N 48.2W 110 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 21.8N 49.6W 115 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 24.1N 50.1W 120 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 27.0N 49.5W 120 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 34.0N 45.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 43.0N 43.5W 80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 25/1800Z 49.0N 44.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

000
WTNT42 KNHC 210256
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004

KARL HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND DVORAK
T-NUMBERS ARE ONCE AGAIN UP TO 6.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WHILE
REMAINING STEADY AT 5.5 FROM AFWA. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES TEND TO
SHOW UP A LITTLE COOLER FOR MET-8 AS COMPARED TO GOES-12...WHICH
PROBABLY EXPLAINS WHY TAFB AND SAB ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN AFWA.
REGARDLESS...BOTH SATELLITES REPRESENTATIONS SHOW A WIDE BAND OF
COOLING CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE. IN ADDITION...A 2207Z TRMM
PASS REVEALED THAT THE STRENGTHENING EYEWALL IS BECOMING MORE
ENCLOSED WITH ONLY A SMALL OPENING ON THE SOUTH SIDE. SINCE CI
NUMBERS HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY BETWEEN 6.0 AND 6.5 FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS IMPROVING...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 120 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AT 315/9. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE WANTS TO RUN KARL OUT OF THE GATES AT A FASTER PACE FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS...MORE LIKE 12 KNOTS...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HOLDS IT BACK A BIT IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS. HOWEVER...
ACCELERATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES AROUND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND HEADS TOWARDS A
DEEP TROUGH NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND RETAIN
A MAXIMUM INTENSITY THROUGH 24 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE
POINT OF RECURVATURE. THE HURRICANE WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS...AND THEN MORE QUICKLY THEREAFTER AS SHEAR
INCREASES AND SSTS COOL BELOW 26C AFTER 48 HOURS. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED BY 96 HOURS WITH KARL BECOMING INCORPORATED
INTO THE DEEP POLAR VORTEX JUST EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FORECASTER BERG/JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 19.1N 47.4W 120 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 20.1N 48.5W 125 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 22.3N 49.8W 125 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 25.4N 50.1W 120 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 28.5N 49.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 36.0N 45.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 44.0N 44.5W 80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 26/0000Z 49.0N 47.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

354
WTNT42 KNHC 210830
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004

DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT AROUND 06Z WERE 6.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 6.0
FROM AFWA...CORRESPONDING TO INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KT AND 115
KT RESPECTIVELY. MORE RECENTLY...THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF
THE COLD CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 120 KT. KARL MAY HAVE
ALREADY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM STRENGTH. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE HURRICANE REACHES SLIGHTLY
COOLER WATERS AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES...I.E. IN ABOUT 48
HOURS. BY DAY 4 KARL SHOULD BE PASSING OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND
LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH HELD
UP A LITTLE HIGHER LATE IN THE PERIOD SINCE THE CYCLONE MAY DERIVE
SOME ENERGY FROM BAROCLINIC SOURCES.

KARL HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 340/10. TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A TURN TO THE NORTH IN
ROUGHLY 24 HOURS...TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY 48-72 HOURS...AND
THEN BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE PERIOD AS KARL BEGINS TO MOVE
AROUND A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THERE ARE
HOWEVER SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED PREDICTED
BY THE MODELS. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE
EAST AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALBEIT FASTER THAN
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 20.1N 47.5W 120 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 21.7N 48.4W 120 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 23.9N 49.5W 120 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 26.5N 49.5W 120 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 29.2N 47.8W 115 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 36.0N 43.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 44.0N 43.5W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 26/0600Z 48.0N 44.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

000
WTNT42 KNHC 211422
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004

DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE AS THE WELL DEFINED EYE
FROM A FEW HOURS AGO IS NOT SEEN THIS MORNING. ALSO THE CDO
FEATURE IS A LITTLE RAGGED AND IT APPEARS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS
CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 110 KT.
THE STRONG SHEAR MAY BE TEMPORARY AS THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS LIGHT
SHEAR AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL KARL REACHES COLD SSTS IN
ABOUT 72 HOURS AND BEGINS TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/12. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS
THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. KARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SOME ACCELERATION IN A DAY OR TWO
AROUND A RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND THEN GET DRAWN TOWARD A POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL MID-LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1500Z 21.4N 48.0W 110 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 48.8W 120 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 25.5N 49.6W 115 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 28.0N 48.6W 110 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 30.9N 46.9W 105 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 38.2N 44.4W 85 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 45.0N 45.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 26/1200Z 50.0N 42.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

000
WTNT42 KNHC 212028
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004

DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
BECOMES RATHER NON-SYMMETRIC...APPARENTLY DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 105 KT. IN CONTRAST...THE SHIPS
MODEL DOES NOT ANALYZE VERY MUCH SHEAR UNTIL 48 HOURS AND OFFICIAL
FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW ADDITONAL WEAKENING UNTIL 36 HOURS IN
RESPECT TO THIS GUIDANCE. IF THE PRESENT APPARENT SHEAR HOLDS
UP...KARL COULD WEAKEN MUCH FASTER THAN FORECAST. KARL IS EXPECTED
TO ENCOUNTER COLDER WATERS BY 72 HOURS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/14. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS
THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. KARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SOME ACCELERATION IN A DAY OR TWO
AROUND A RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND THEN GET DRAWN TOWARD A POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL MID-LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AFTER 36 HOURS AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS
OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 22.9N 48.6W 105 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 24.9N 49.4W 105 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 27.6N 49.1W 105 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 30.4N 47.4W 100 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 34.1N 45.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 44.2N 42.2W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 25/1800Z 52.5N 37.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 26/1800Z 57.5N 25.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

000
WTNT42 KNHC 220245
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004

STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS ONCE AGAIN WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER
OF KARL...POSSIBLY BECAUSE THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS RELAXED
IMMEDIATELY OVER THE HURRICANE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. T-NUMBERS
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA HAVE FALLEN TO 5.0...5.0...AND 4.5
RESPECTIVELY. SINCE CI NUMBERS ARE STILL UP NEAR 6.0 AND THE
CONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE TIGHTLY WRAPPED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105
KT.

EVEN THOUGH THE OVERALL SHEAR HAS DECREASED...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTH OF KARL IS LIMITING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. IT APPEARS THAT SHEAR WILL ALSO IMPACT KARL FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE STORM APPROACHES A LARGE
POLAR TROUGH NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER ABOUT 12 HOURS AS THE SHEAR
INCREASES AND SSTS COOL...IN LINE WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE.

KARL IS NOW MOVING 350/15. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS ADVISORIES AND KEEPS KARL ON AN ACCELERATING NORTH TO
NORTH-NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY THROUGH DAY 3. EXTRATROPICAL KARL WILL
THEN TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE DIRECTION
OF ICELAND DURING DAYS 4 AND 5 EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG WESTERLIES.
THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 24.5N 48.9W 105 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 26.6N 49.3W 105 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 29.1N 48.3W 100 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 31.7N 46.2W 95 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 35.5N 44.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 45.5N 41.0W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/0000Z 54.0N 34.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/0000Z 60.0N 22.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

000
WTNT42 KNHC 221428
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INCLUDE 102 KT FROM TAFB...90 KT FROM
SAB...AND 80 KT FROM A 3-HR AVERAGE ODT FROM UW/CIMSS...AND THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90 KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
REMNANT OF AN INNER EYEWALL WITH A LARGER OUTER EYEWALL. AS THE
INNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE SOME WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED...BUT NOW THAT KARL IS BEGINNING RECURVATURE WITH AN
ACCELERATION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...I DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH
CONTRACTION OR STRENGTHENING OF THE OUTER EYEWALL. KARL SHOULD
DECAY ONLY SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE COLDER WATERS AND
INCREASING SHEAR AFFECT THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER... BAROCLINIC ENERGY
SHOULD KEEP KARL A POTENT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/12. KARL IS SOUTHEAST OF A DEEP
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE BASICALLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. AFTER
THAT...GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE REMNANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL
TURN EASTWARD WITH THE HIGH-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT TO
CARRY THE FORECAST OUT TO 120 HOURS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 26.9N 49.0W 90 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 28.9N 48.5W 85 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 32.0N 46.0W 80 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 36.5N 43.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 42.0N 42.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 52.0N 40.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/1200Z 59.0N 31.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/1200Z 65.0N 18.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

000
WTNT42 KNHC 230256
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

JUST WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE KARL WAS ON A WEAKENING TREND...DVORAK
T-NUMBERS ARE NOW 5.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 5.0 FROM SAB. COLD
CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE ONCE AGAIN COMPLETELY SURROUNDED THE
EYE...WHICH ITSELF IS RAGGED BUT A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT AS A COMPROMISE OF THE T-NUMBERS.

UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT KARL IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED
WITHIN A POCKET OF LOWER SHEAR VALUES BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS MUCH
MORE HOSTILE IN ITS FORECAST PATH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE EXCEPT THAT KARL IS
HELD SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS GIVEN THE
RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS ANTICIPATED
TO BEGIN BY 48 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BELT OF STRONG WESTERLIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF GREENLAND AND
ICELAND.

KARL IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 025/19. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A
SLIGHT BEND TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT
THEN KARL WILL MAKE A RAPID TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WHEN IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE FASTER
THAN THE GFDL AND UKMET BUT OTHERWISE THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED PATH-WISE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL STAGE.

FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 30.0N 47.3W 95 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 32.4N 45.7W 90 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 36.4N 43.6W 80 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 41.6N 42.3W 70 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 47.0N 41.0W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/0000Z 56.0N 31.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/0000Z 63.0N 14.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 28/0000Z...EAST OF PRIME MERIDIAN

922
WTNT42 KNHC 230840
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

KARL HAS CONTINUED ITS INTENSIFYING TREND WITH CONVECTION AROUND THE
EYE BECOMING COLDER. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE ALSO JUMPED
WITH A PAIR OF 6.0'S FROM TAFB AND SAB THIS MORNING. THE EYE IS
STILL A BIT RAGGED BUT KARL APPEARS TO HAVE REGAINED MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 110 KT. THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS KARL
IS CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS
PROBABLE WITH THE FORECAST INTENSITY BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN BY 36 HOURS AS
THE HURRICANE BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF STRONG MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES OVER WATER TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 21C.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS
ON TRACK...MOVING ABOUT 030/20. SOME ACCELERATION IS LIKELY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH... WITH A BEND TO
THE NORTH EXPECTED AS KARL BECOMES MORE ENTANGLED WITH THE TROUGH
FEATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN GUNA AND THE GFS.
WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED AT 72 HOURS BASED ON GFS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 31.7N 45.8W 110 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 34.5N 44.0W 95 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 39.5N 42.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 44.5N 41.5W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/0600Z 49.5N 38.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/0600Z 58.5N 22.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/0600Z 65.5N 5.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 28/0600Z...ABSORBED

373
WTNT42 KNHC 231441
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

THE SHORT TERM INITIAL MOTION IS 040/23. THE TRACK FORECAST
SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME WITH KARL ACCELERATING MAINLY NORTHWARD
ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL TROUGH AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72 HOURS.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A
LITTLE RIGHT OF A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER AND
KARL SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 24 TO 36 HOURS.

THE EYE FEATURE IS QUITE RAGGED AND VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS DECREASED TO 105 KNOTS AND CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
INDICATED BY ALL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS
MODEL...BUT WEAKENING COULD BE EVEN FASTER.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 33.8N 43.8W 105 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 37.6N 42.4W 95 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 42.9N 41.8W 85 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 25/0000Z 47.4N 40.7W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/1200Z 52.0N 37.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/1200Z 61.0N 19.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

764
WTNT42 KNHC 232043
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/22. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS
THE SAME AS EARLIER WITH KARL ACCELERATING MAINLY NORTHWARD ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND
CUTTING OFF A LOW. THE MOTION IS FORCAST TO BE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER
48 HOURS...AND KARL THEN MERGES WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AFTER 72
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER AND KARL
SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 24 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ALSO RAPIDLY
DECREASING AND BECOMING POORLY ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
IS DECREASED TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INENSITY ESTIMATES. THE
FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING THE SHIPS
MODEL FOR 36 HOURS AND THEN SLOWS THE WEAKENING TREND AS BAROCLINIC
ENERGY SOURCES MAINTAIN A STRONG CIRCULATION.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 35.7N 43.3W 90 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 39.7N 42.4W 80 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 44.7N 42.0W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 25/0600Z 49.2N 40.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/1800Z 54.0N 34.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/1800Z 62.0N 9.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

000
WTNT42 KNHC 240247
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

KARL IS NOW EXPERIENCING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE MORE OBVIOUS
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. AS SUCH...THE INITIAL POSITION IS BECOMING
MORE UNCERTAIN. CI NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 5.5...5.0...AND 4.0 FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A
COMPROMISE OF 80 KT. A DRIFTING BUOY NEAR THE CENTER REPORTED A
PRESSURE OF 963 MB...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A STRONGER
TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT THIS PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP IS ALLOWABLE
FOR A HIGH-LATITUDE STORM. THE CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT KARL IS
IN THE FIRST STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH SHOULD BE
COMPLETED WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
ENVELOPED WITHIN THE BELT OF STRONG WESTERLIES SOUTH OF GREENLAND.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL...WHICH
SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN CORRECTLY FORECASTING THE HURRICANE'S RECENT
INTENSITY TRENDS. THIS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

KARL IS STILL ACCELERATING WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 020/26. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT WILL THEN MAKE A RAPID TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
AS IT MOVES INTO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS A TAD TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 24
HOURS...DUE TO A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. KARL IS
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW NORTH OF THE
BRITISH ISLES BY 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 38.7N 41.5W 80 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 42.6N 40.9W 75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 25/0000Z 47.5N 39.4W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 25/1200Z 52.2N 35.4W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 26/0000Z 57.0N 27.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 27/0000Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

652
WTNT42 KNHC 240847
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

KARL CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH COMPLETED
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
SHORTWAVE INFRARED AND MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT A POORLY
ORGANIZED...RAGGED...LOW CENTER AND AN ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE ABSENT
OF DEEP CONVECTION...ALL INDICATIVE OF THE FINAL PHASE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DVORAK CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB WITH DATA-T NUMBERS DOWN TO
55 AND 65 KT RESPECTIVELY. INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO A
GENEROUS 75 KT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED OFF OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS.

INITIAL MOTION IS AN ACCELERATING 020/26. KARL SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING IN A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
IS EXPECTED AS THE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES WITHIN THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND AGREES WITH THE CONU CONSENSUS. KARL IS
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW NORTH OF THE
BRITISH ISLES BY DAY 3.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 40.8N 41.0W 75 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 44.5N 40.4W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 25/0600Z 49.4N 37.7W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 25/1800Z 54.5N 32.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 26/0600Z 59.2N 19.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 27/0600Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

000
WTNT42 KNHC 241449
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

KARL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A SMALL CORE OF REASONABLY COLD
CONVECTION...SO WE CANNOT QUITE DECLARE KARL EXTRATROPICAL YET. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK T/CI
NUMBERS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. KARL WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH
COLDER WATERS AND ANY BAROCLINIC INFLUX OF ENERGY SHOULD BE OVER
NOW...SO CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS KARL LOSES TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/35...AS KARL IS WHIPPING AROUND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST. KARL SHOULD DISENGAGE FROM
THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND AS IT DOES SO SLOW ITS
FORWARD MOTION AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 44.4N 40.2W 70 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 48.9N 39.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 25/1200Z 53.7N 36.1W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 26/0000Z 58.7N 28.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 26/1200Z 62.0N 14.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 27/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW

000
WTNT42 KNHC 242041
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

THERE ARE JUST SOME VERY SMALL SLIVERS OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING
NEAR THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NEAR OR JUST UNDER
65 KT AND THE 18Z WIND SPEED IS SET AT 65 KNOTS. KARL IS NOW OVER
WATER LESS THAN 20 DEGREES C AND CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
KARL IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/26. KARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND MERGE WITH
ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 47.3N 40.4W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 25/0600Z 51.0N 38.4W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 25/1800Z 56.0N 32.2W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 26/0600Z 60.5N 21.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 26/1800Z 64.0N 6.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 27/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW