976
WTNT21 KNHC 100818
TCMAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152004
0900Z SUN OCT 10 2004

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 66.0W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......300NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 200SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 66.0W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 65.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...300NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 36.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW.
34 KT...300NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 39.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW.
34 KT...300NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 41.5N 63.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 43.5N 63.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 49.0N 59.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 52.0N 50.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 66.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

116
WTNT41 KNHC 100838
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR BERMUDA CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED
AND IS BEING IDENTIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM. THIS IS BASED ON
THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTER AS SHOWN ON A
QUIKSCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT AND ALSO ON THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL COLD LOW OVER THE SURFACE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET AT
40 KNOTS BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT PASS AND A RECENT SHIP REPORT. THE
DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE
CENTER AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...NICOLE COULD TRANSITION INTO A
TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE FORECAST IS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING FOR A
DAY OR TWO UNTIL THE STORM MERGES WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/13, THE FORECAST TRACK IS MOSTLY
NORTHWARD FOR 72 HOURS AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVES FROM
NORTH AMERICA TO THE ATLANTIC AND CUTS OFF. THE GFS SHOWS NICOLE
MERGING WITH THIS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN 48 HOURS AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NICOLE AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AT
48 HOURS. A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS
FOLLOWING THE GFS MODEL.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 31.8N 66.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 33.5N 66.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 36.0N 65.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 39.0N 63.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 41.5N 63.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 13/0600Z 43.5N 63.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 14/0600Z 49.0N 59.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 15/0600Z 52.0N 50.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

904
WTNT45 KNHC 101453
TCDAT5
SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF NICOLE. HOWEVER THIS
CONVECTION IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER...SO THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION THAT THE CYCLONE IS
ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. A 10Z HIRES QUIKSCAT PASS
CONTAINED 40 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THESE OBSERVATIONS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NICOLE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN 36
HOURS...THE GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED BY
A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IN AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS NICOLE WILL BE STEERED
PRIMARILY BY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. SOME SLOWING IN THE FORWARD SPEED IS SHOWN IN 36 TO 48
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO COMBINE WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...CONU...AND IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 32.2N 66.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 34.0N 66.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 36.6N 65.1W 50 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 39.5N 64.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 12/1200Z 41.1N 64.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 13/1200Z 44.0N 62.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 14/1200Z...ABSORBED

522
WTNT45 KNHC 102041
TCDAT5
SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004

AMSU DATA FROM NOAA SATELLITES SUGGEST THAT NICOLE MAY HAVE
DEVELOPED A SLIGHT MID-LEVEL WARM CORE. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION
REMAINS QUITE SHALLOW AND WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...WITH
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF CURVED BANDING. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS
MAINTAINED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM BUT
GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND CYCLONIC ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...ONLY SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION SEEMS POSSIBLE. IN A FEW DAYS NICOLE IS EXPECTED
TO MERGE WITH...AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY...A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

THE CYCLONE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...HOWEVER A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY ON MONDAY SHOULD BEGIN TO
PULL NICOLE NORTHWARD SOON. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION...FOLLOWED BY A CURVE
TO THE LEFT WITH DECELERATION AS THE NICOLE BEGINS TO INTERACT AND
MERGE WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS REASONING.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 32.0N 66.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 34.3N 66.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 39.0N 65.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 41.0N 65.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 12/1800Z 41.5N 66.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

204
WTNT35 KNHC 102345
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004

...NICOLE PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA...

A GALE WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST OR ABOUT
60 MILES...100 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NICOLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. HOWEVER
...A NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM...MAINLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 56 MPH...91
KM/HR...WAS REPORTED ON BERMUDA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER
...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ISLAND LATER TONIGHT
AND ON MONDAY AS NICOLE MOVES FARTHER AWAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES...
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BERMUDA.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...32.8 N... 65.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST AT 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

777
WTNT25 KNHC 110217
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152004
0300Z MON OCT 11 2004

A GALE WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
THE WARNING AND THE WATCH MAY BE DISCONTINUED EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 65.0W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 65.0W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 65.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 36.4N 63.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 40.3N 63.4W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 42.3N 63.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 175SE 175SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 42.3N 65.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...225NE 175SE 200SW 225NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 65.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART

027
WTNT45 KNHC 110239
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004

WHILE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...NICOLE REMAINS A
SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL STORM AS INDICATED BY A RECENT PRESSURE
REPORT OF 995 MB FROM BERMUDA. AS IS THE CASE WITH SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONES...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH NICOLE IS DISPLACED WELL
EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...AS THAT BAND PASSED OVER
BERMUDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IT CONTAINED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37-38
KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT. THEREFORE...AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS
BEING MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY. WIND RADII WERE TRIMMED BACK TO
THE WEST AND EXPANDED TO THE EAST BASED ON THE BERMUDA OBSERVATIONS
AND A 10/2244Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/13. NICOLE IS MOVING AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SOUTHEASTWARD TO SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING
NORTHWARD UP THE EAST SIDE OF AN EVEN DEEPER LOW/TROUGH FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE CAPE COD AREA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THIS DEVELOPING
FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ACT TO LIFT NICOLE NORTHWARD BY 12-18 HOURS...
AND THEN POSSIBLY HOOK THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE
UPPER-LOW MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE NICOLE SURFACE CIRCULATION IN
24-36H. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS
EVOLVING SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST EAST OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION.

NICOLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS...
IF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER...IN THE 36-48 HOUR TIME PERIOD...SIGNIFICANT
UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS AND BAROCLINIC EFFECTS SHOULD KICK IN AS THE
UPPER-LOW BECOMES SUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THE RELATIVELY WARMER
LOWER LAYERS OF THE NICOLE CIRCULATION. THE RESULT COULD BE A LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS JUST EAST
OF THE U.S. NEW ENGLAND AREA...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
REMAINS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE WARM GULFSTREAM.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 33.1N 65.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 36.4N 63.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 40.3N 63.4W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 12/1200Z 42.3N 63.8W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 13/0000Z 42.3N 65.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 14/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

097
WTNT45 KNHC 110843
TCDAT5
SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2004

NICOLE HAS TRIED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS MORNING...AS A
PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER WHILE AMSU OVERPASSES FROM SUNDAY EVENING INDICATED A WARM
CORE MIGHT BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF CONVECTION
TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER OR OF ANY ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
INDEED...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WESTERLY JET STREAK IS
APPROACHING THE CENTER...WHICH IS NOT EXACTLY THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND
PATTERN OF A SYSTEM COMPLETING TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THUS...NICOLE REMAINS A SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH 40 KT WINDS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS IS
OCCURRING NEAR SABLE ISLAND...WHERE THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO
1001 MB AS OF 08Z. DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL MERGE NICOLE WITH THIS LOW
IN 24 HR OR LESS...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS DIFFER ON WHICH CYCLONE
WOULD BE DOMINANT DURING THE MERGER. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE THE
SAME...A RATHER VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR
NICOLE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING EVEN WHILE LOSING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...FOLLOWED BY MERGER WITH THE LARGER LOW
AFTER 24 HR. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT NICOLE MAY NOT SURVIVE FOR
EVEN 24 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 045/16. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT NICOLE
SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BEFORE MERGER WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
OCCURS...AND THIS IS FOLLOWED IN THE TRACK FORECAST. IF NICOLE
MOVES FASTER OR LASTS LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT MAY DO A
LEFT HOOK AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LARGER LOW BEFORE THE MERGER
IS COMPLETE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...BUT NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BASED ON THE INITIAL
POSITION.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0900Z 34.9N 63.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 38.4N 62.8W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 12/0600Z 41.5N 63.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

000
WTNT45 KNHC 112029
TCDAT5
SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2004

THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS IT COMBINES WITH A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH FROM BAROCLINIC
ENERGY SOURCES MAY OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME MORE ACCELERATION TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD
SPEED WITHIN 12-24 HOURS...ALONG WITH A TURN TO THE LEFT. LATER IN
THE PERIOD...THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN AS THE CYCLONE
ENCOUNTERS A FASTER WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON NICOLE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 40.0N 61.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 12/0600Z 42.0N 61.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 12/1800Z 43.5N 61.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 13/0600Z 45.0N 61.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 13/1800Z 48.0N 59.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 14/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM