Title: Winter Storm Watch In Effect
Matthew - January 13, 2005 10:55 PM (GMT)
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
239 PM PST THU JAN 13 2005
ORZ003-005>007-009>011-WAZ019-020-022-023-039-040-140628-
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-
GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-
LOWER COLUMBIA AND I - 5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-
WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BATTLE GROUND...CASCADE LOCKS..
CASTLE ROCK...COLDWATER RIDGE VISITORS CENTER...COUGAR...DALLAS..
DETROIT...DOWNTOWN PORTLAND...DOWNTOWN VANCOUVER...FRANCES..
GOVERNMENT CAMP...HILLSBORO...HOOD RIVER...JEWELL...LONGVIEW..
MCMINNVILLE...MILL CITY...MOUNT ST. HELENS...OREGON CITY...SALEM..
SANDY...ST. HELENS...STEVENSON...SWEET HOME...TOUTLE AND VERNONIA
239 PM PST THU JAN 13 2005
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY...THE COAST RANGE OF
NORTHWEST OREGON...THE GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA...THE GREATER
VANCOUVER AREA...THE LOWER COLUMBIA...THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND I - 5
CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS..
THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES...THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
FOOTHILLS...THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...THE WESTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND THE WILLAPA HILLS..
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE WATCH COVERS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FROM THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD IN NORTHWEST
OREGON...FROM THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY NORTH. THIS INCLUDES THE
WESTERN COLUMBIA GORGE.
COLD DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO SPREAD THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON ON FRIDAY. THEN
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING WARMER MOIST PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA BEGINNING LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH LOCALLY AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...6 INCHES OR MORE IN THE EASTERN GORGE...AND UP TO A FOOT
IN THE HIGHER CASCADES. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO THEN CHANGE
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE
CASCADES ON SATURDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT SPREADS OVER THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR.
THE FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY...THOUGH
THE FREEZING RAIN MAY PERSIST IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND AREAS
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE GORGE.
REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS SUCH AS HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND EXTREME
WIND CHILLS ARE FAVORABLE IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT
48 HOURS...BUT ARE NOT IMMINENT.
Matthew - January 13, 2005 10:57 PM (GMT)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PST THU JAN 13 2005
.SYNOPSIS...A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL DRYING AND
CLEARING. COLD AIR FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BEGIN FILTERING THROUGH
THE GORGE TONIGHT AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO RIDE OVER THIS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AND IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE GORGE THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATING THAT
THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AS
DYNAMICS AND ONSHORE FLOW HAVE WEAKENED. THE AIR MASS SHOULD DRY
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON
AND DISSOLVES. HOWEVER...THE TRANSITION FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE SLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT. BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DRY AND COLD AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING THROUGH THE GORGE AND INTO THE PORTLAND AREA. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY AND EXPAND TO COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY MORNING WARM AND VERY
MOIST AIR FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THIS LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ICING IN THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER AREA SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH LESS ICING AS YOU MOVE AWAY FROM THE GORGE.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE GORGE THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF CASCADE LOCKS. THUS A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FOR FREEZING RAIN...AND THE NORTHERN OREGON
CASCADES AND GORGE FOR HEAVY SNOW FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...MADE MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT GRIDS. KEPT SOME FREEZING
RAIN IN THE GORGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE TRAPPED
COLD AIR SHOULD LINGER AT LEAST THAT LONG. OTHERWISE...AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...WITH
LARGE TROUGH/LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION OUT ABOUT 150 TO 160W
THROWING UP A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. IT APPEARS THERE IS A
SUCCESSION OF WAVES THAT PASS LIFT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...THEN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ABOUT
THURSDAY. CANNOT GUARANTEE ANY DRY DAYS AT THIS TIME THOUGH
WEDNESDAY COULD EVENTUALLY BE A CANDIDATE. CURRENT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SEEMS REASONABLE. TOLLESON
rainstorm - January 13, 2005 11:17 PM (GMT)
| QUOTE (Matthew @ Thursday Jan 13 2005, 02:57: PM) |
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR 230 PM PST THU JAN 13 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING. COLD AIR FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BEGIN FILTERING THROUGH THE GORGE TONIGHT AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO RIDE OVER THIS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE GORGE THROUGH SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATING THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AS DYNAMICS AND ONSHORE FLOW HAVE WEAKENED. THE AIR MASS SHOULD DRY SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND DISSOLVES. HOWEVER...THE TRANSITION FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE SLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT. BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DRY AND COLD AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING THROUGH THE GORGE AND INTO THE PORTLAND AREA. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY AND EXPAND TO COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY MORNING WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THIS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ICING IN THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER AREA SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LESS ICING AS YOU MOVE AWAY FROM THE GORGE. SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE GORGE THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CASCADE LOCKS. THUS A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FOR FREEZING RAIN...AND THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND GORGE FOR HEAVY SNOW FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...MADE MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT GRIDS. KEPT SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE GORGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE TRAPPED COLD AIR SHOULD LINGER AT LEAST THAT LONG. OTHERWISE...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...WITH LARGE TROUGH/LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION OUT ABOUT 150 TO 160W THROWING UP A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. IT APPEARS THERE IS A SUCCESSION OF WAVES THAT PASS LIFT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...THEN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ABOUT THURSDAY. CANNOT GUARANTEE ANY DRY DAYS AT THIS TIME THOUGH WEDNESDAY COULD EVENTUALLY BE A CANDIDATE. CURRENT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SEEMS REASONABLE. TOLLESON |
i hope you get some snow :silly:
Matthew - January 14, 2005 09:19 PM (GMT)
FXUS66 KPQR 141634
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 AM PST FRI JAN 14 2005
.SYNOPSIS...COLD DRY AIR IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON CONTINUES TO FILTER THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE INTO THE
NORTH ZONES THIS MORNING. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE GORGE
TODAY AND COLD AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL
BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE ONSHORE TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE WILL RIDE OVER
THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS WEATHER
PATTERN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICE EVENT IN THE NORTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE
WEST END OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TO
NORTHERN WASHINGTON EARLY SUN MORNING. A MOIST AND WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS INCOMING SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC - WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 140W 44N TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT 130W 35N-ISH. THE MAIN LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE PACIFIC WITH THE WARM FRONT SWINGING INLAND OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. MAIN PRECIP LIKELY WONT ARRIVE IN NORTH VALLEY UNTIL
SAT MORNING. MEANTIME...MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT SENDING OUTFLOW INTO
NORTHERN WA THROUGH FRASER RIVER VALLEY AND NOW INTO WILLAMETTE
VALLEY VIA THE COLUMBIA GORGE. DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO DROP WEST OF
THE CASCADES AS THE DRY AND COLD AIR FILTERS IN. KTTD DEWPOINT NOW IN
THE TEENS...AND JUST DROPPED INTO THE 20S AT KPDX AROUND 8 AM.
CURRENTLY IN A HOLDING PATTERN AS THE COLD AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
VALLEY.
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TODAY AND TONIGHT. GFS
REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THIS IS A WARM
TROPICAL SYSTEM. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT IN
THE N WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND WEST END OF THE GORGE. DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT MAKES IT INTO THE VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW AND THEN CHANGE
TO FREEZING RAIN BY LATE SAT MORNING AS WARMING OCCURS. PRECIP
WILL THEN CHANGE TO RAIN SAT NIGHT. A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN
LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE UNTIL AT LEAST SUN MORNING.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE GORGE THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF KCZK.
Matthew - January 14, 2005 09:21 PM (GMT)
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1132 AM PST FRI JAN 14 2005
ORZ003-005>007-009>011-WAZ019-020-022-023-039-040-142300-
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-
GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-
LOWER COLUMBIA AND I - 5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-
WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BATTLE GROUND...CASCADE LOCKS..
CASTLE ROCK...COLDWATER RIDGE VISITORS CENTER...COUGAR...DALLAS..
DETROIT...DOWNTOWN PORTLAND...DOWNTOWN VANCOUVER...FRANCES..
GOVERNMENT CAMP...HILLSBORO...HOOD RIVER...JEWELL...LONGVIEW..
MCMINNVILLE...MILL CITY...MOUNT ST. HELENS...OREGON CITY...SALEM..
SANDY...ST. HELENS...STEVENSON...SWEET HOME...TOUTLE AND VERNONIA
1132 AM PST FRI JAN 14 2005
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY...THE COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
OREGON...THE GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA...THE GREATER VANCOUVER
AREA...THE LOWER COLUMBIA...THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND I - 5 CORRIDOR IN
COWLITZ COUNTY...THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS...THE NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADES...THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS...THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES...THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND THE
WILLAPA HILLS..
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WATCH COVERS THE INLAND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...FROM THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST OREGON...FROM THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY NORTH AND THE
WESTERN COLUMBIA GORGE.
COLD DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FRIDAY MORNING...THEN
SPREAD SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING WARMER
AND MOIST PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL OVER-RIDE THE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START IN THE SOUTH BEGINNING
LATE FRIDAY EVENING THEN SPREAD NORTH DURING THE NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL INCEASE SATURDAY...AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY MORNING...6 INCHES OR MORE IN THE EASTERN
GORGE...AND UP TO A FOOT IN THE HIGHER CASCADES. THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WEST OF THE CASCADES ON LATER SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WARMER AIR
ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR.
THE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE WEST
OF CASCADE LOCKS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE GORGE. IT MAY NOT TURN TO
RAIN IN THOSSE AREAS UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
Matthew - January 15, 2005 02:26 AM (GMT)
WINTER STORM WARNING
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...COR TIME IN COAST RANGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
232 PM PST FRI JAN 14 2005
ORZ009-WAZ023-150700-
WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CASCADE LOCKS...HOOD RIVER AND STEVENSON
232 PM PST FRI JAN 14 2005
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM PST
SUNDAY FOR THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE..
THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
THE COLUMBIA GORGE. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER DAY BREAK SATURDAY THEN
MIX WITH AND TURN TO FREEZING RAIN WEST OF CASCADE LOCKS. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON EAST OF CASCADE LOCKS. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL DECREASE AND TURN TO FREEZING RAIN IN ALL AREAS. ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY WEST OF CASCADE LOCKS SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE TURNING TO FREEZING RAIN. SIX TO TEN INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY
EAST OF CASCADE LOCKS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY IN THE GORGE.
Matthew - January 15, 2005 04:05 AM (GMT)
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
743 PM PST FRI JAN 14 2005
ORZ005-WAZ040-151400-
LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COUGAR...ST. HELENS AND TOUTLE
743 PM PST FRI JAN 14 2005
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM PST
SATURDAY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
FOOTHILLS..
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS UPGRADED THE WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
FOOTHILLS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. A WARMER AND MOIST AIR MASS
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS AIR WILL
MOVE OVER THE TOP OF A COLDER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. EXPECT A MIXTURE OF
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN TO BEGIN AROUND SUNRISE. SNOW WILL BE MORE
PREVALENT IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...BEFORE TURNING TO
FREEZING RAIN.
FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO RAIN IN THE WEST PART OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL END THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT.
Matthew - January 15, 2005 05:20 AM (GMT)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PST FRI JAN 14 2005
.SYNOPSIS...COLD DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING
A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE IS STILL THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A FREEZING RAIN EVENT
TOMORROW IN THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE WEST END OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TO NORTHERN WASHINGTON EARLY SUN MORNING. A
MOIST AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...NOT MUCH TIME TO LOOK AT NEW STUFF. WANTED TO GET ALL
THE NEW WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES OUT ASAP. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATING WARM-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION HAS
ALREADY MADE IT INTO SW OREGON. LATEST METARS SHOW -RA AS FAR N AS
KRBG. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS HAS THE BETTER PRECIP DEPICTION AS OF 00Z.
ETA HAS BEEN WAY TOO SLOW. ICING POTENTIAL SETTING UP NICELY WITH
MANY AREAS IN THE NORTH REPORTING FREEZING OR SUB-FREEZING TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE
INTO KSLE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN INTO THE PDX METRO
AREA AROUND SUNRISE. MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SATURATE THE
LOWER LAYERS ENOUGH IN THE PDX METRO AREA TO GET THINGS GOING. THE
OTHER ELEMENT TO DEAL WITH IS THE E WIND. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS HAVE
BEEN INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. KOTH-KGEG AT -11.7 MB AT
03Z...KPDX-KDLS AT -8.0 MB. KTTD GUSTING TO 30 KT AND ROOSTER ROCK
SUSTAINED AT 26 KT. EXPECT GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE GORGE LATER
TONIGHT. SPS OUT FOR EARLIER FOR THAT.
UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WARNING IN THE N WILL VALLEY...NORTH OREGON
CASCADE FOOTHILLS...CLARK COUNTY...THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND S WA
CASCADE FOOTHILLS. VARIANCES STRICTLY RELATED TO LENGTH OF WARNING.
WENT WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE N OREGON COAST RANGE AND
LOWER COLUMBIA/I-5 CORRIDOR IN SW WA. WENT FOR SNOW ADVISORY IN THE
WILLAPA HILLS. REMAINING WARNINGS/ADVISORIES REMAIN THE SAME.
LAST COUPLE OF GFS RUNS NOT AS GUNG-HO WITH QPF AMOUNTS SAT. STILL
SHOULD GET DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE GORGE E OF KCZK AND IN THE
CASCADES. A COUPLE OF THINGS THAT COULD WORK AGAINST SIGNIFICANT
ICING ARE THE CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT MAY PREVENT SURFACE TEMPS FROM
DROPPING VERY MUCH...AND MIXING OCCURRING AT THE EAST END OF THE
GORGE BECAUSE OF STRONG WINDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING FAR
BELOW FREEZING NEAR THE SURFACE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE FREEZING LEVELS COMING UP RAPIDLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT SO
THE SOUTH VALLEY SHOULD SEE ONLY RAIN...CENTRAL VALLEY A POSSIBILITY
OF ICE BUT SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO RAIN QUICKLY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. FREEZING PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.
WILL SWITCH TO LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN SAT NIGHT. THE LAST VESTIGES
OF COLD AIR (NEAR THE GORGE) SHOULD FINALLY MIX OUT BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR
Matthew - January 15, 2005 07:15 AM (GMT)
Tonight: Increasing clouds. A chance of freezing rain and snow after midnight. Lows 25 to 30. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph...except east 15 to 25 mph near the gorge with gusts to 45 mph.
Saturday: Freezing rain...turning to rain late afternoon south of oregon city. Snow in the morning. Local snow accumulation up to 2 inches. Highs in the 30s...coolest near the gorge. Northeast wind south of portland 10 to 15 mph...becoming southeast in the afternoon. East wind 20 to 35 mph near the gorge with gusts to 50 mph. Wind decreasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.