AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PST FRI MAR 11 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND BRING A MARINE PUSH TO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT A LITTLE WESTWARD OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BRINGING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW TO THE AREA BY MID WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE THERMAL TROUGH HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A NORTHWEST PUSH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF MORNING CLOUDS NORTH WITH PATCHY FOG IN
THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE UPPER
RIDGE OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. BRINGING DOWN DRY AND
COOL AIR.

.LONG TERM...MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES TODAY VERSUS
YESTERDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF ARE MUCH DRIER WITH THE
TROUGH THAT ARRIVES FROM ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WEDNESDAY.
LOOKS LIKE AN INSIDE SLIDER NOW. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE LOOKS LIKE IT
MAY GET HUNG UP OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST FRIDAY. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO A DELAY IN PRECIP AS WE WOULD HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE WESTERLIES
TO BREAK THROUGH UNDER THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST PACKAGE AS IS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
&&


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PST FRI MAR 11 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND BRING A MARINE PUSH TO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT A LITTLE WESTWARD OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BRINGING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW TO THE AREA BY MID WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING. THIS IS PRODUCING A NORTHWEST PUSH WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF MORNING
CLOUDS NORTH WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR
WESTERN U.S. BRINGING DOWN DRY AND COOL AIR.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MODELS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE 12Z
GFS...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF ARE MUCH DRIER WITH THE TROUGH THAT
ARRIVES FROM ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE
AN INSIDE SLIDER NOW. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY GET HUNG
UP OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST FRIDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A DELAY
IN PRECIP AS WE WOULD HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE WESTERLIES TO BREAK
THROUGH UNDER THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST PACKAGE AS IS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
223 AM PST SAT MAR 12 2005

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW EARLY TODAY WILL TURN BACK OFFSHORE LATER TODAY...
KEEPING THE AIR MASS DRY BUT TURNING GRADUALLY COOLER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS DROPPING DOWN FROM THE N WILL BRING
TURNS THE FLOW BACK ONSHORE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...IT IS CLEAR FROM WATER VAPOR LOOPS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW IS BEING BEATEN DOWN SOME BY THE SHORT WAVE
PUSHING DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN BC AT THIS TIME. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY DRY THOUGH...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A WEAK
MARINE PUSH OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA. MODEL ALL CONTINUE TO TURN
FLOW OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY...ALLOWING SOME OF THE COOLER EAST SIDE
AIR TO PUSH W ACROSS THE CASCADES. WITH MODELS INDICATING COOLING
THROUGH THE DAY...SUSPECT MOS HIGHS MAY BE A TOUCH ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE...ESP IN THE NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS COOLER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN SUN AND MON WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO LOWER...SHOULD SEE A SLOW COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE NORTHERLY FLOW
FURTHER W AROUND MIDWEEK AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS S IN THE FLOW. NOT
CLEAR IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW TO GIVE MUCH
CHANCE AT SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEMS ON WED AND
THU...SO A LOW POP STILL LOOKS JUSTIFIED. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
MODELS TENDING TO SHOW ONE OF TWO OUTCOMES...EITHER THE REGION
STAYING IN THE NW FLOW...OR THE WESTERLIES CUTTING IN UNDERNEATH THE
NORTHERN STREAM. EITHER WAY WOULD GIVE SOME CHANCE OF RAIN...SO WILL
KEEP IN CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE WEEK TOO



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
836 AM PST SAT MAR 12 2005

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY...KEEPING THE AIR MASS DRY BUT
TURNING GRADUALLY COOLER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL TURN THE FLOW BACK ONSHORE DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE BEING
SQUEEZED OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH FROM
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TO THE SPOKANE SOUNDING OVERNIGHT...BUT FEW CLOUDS AND NO
PRECIPITATION NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO
PUSH SOME OF THE COOLER EAST SIDE AIR WEST ACROSS THE CASCADES AS
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY. AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN
SUN AND MON WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO
LOWER...SHOULD SEE A SLOW COOLING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WILLIS

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE NORTHERLY FLOW
FURTHER W AROUND MIDWEEK AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS S IN THE FLOW. NOT
CLEAR IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW TO GIVE MUCH
CHANCE AT SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEMS ON WED AND
THU...SO A LOW POP STILL LOOKS JUSTIFIED. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
MODELS TENDING TO SHOW ONE OF TWO OUTCOMES...EITHER THE REGION
STAYING IN THE NW FLOW...OR THE WESTERLIES CUTTING IN UNDERNEATH THE
NORTHERN STREAM. EITHER WAY WOULD GIVE SOME CHANCE OF RAIN...SO WILL
KEEP IN CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE WEEK TOO.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
218 PM PST SAT MAR 12 2005

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY TONIGHT...KEEPING THE AIR
MASS DRY BUT TURNING GRADUALLY COOLER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
COUPLE OF SYSTEMS DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL TURN THE FLOW
BACK ONSHORE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
BEING SQUEEZED OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS DRY SYSTEM BROUGHT
SIGNIFICANT COOLING TO THE SPOKANE SOUNDING OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE TO PUSH SOME OF THE COOLER EAST SIDE AIR WEST ACROSS
THE CASCADES AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT. AS COOLER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN SUN AND MON WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO LOWER...SHOULD SEE A SLOW COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. GFS SHOWS A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW TUE AS ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THERE MAY SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. WILLIS

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE NORTHERLY FLOW
FURTHER WEST AROUND MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH IN THE
FLOW. NOT LIKELY TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW TO GIVE MUCH
CHANCE AT SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEMS ON WED AND
THU...SO A VERY LOW POP OK. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS
TENDING TO SHOW ONE OF TWO OUTCOMES...EITHER THE REGION STAYING IN
THE NW FLOW...OR THE WESTERLIES CUTTING IN UNDERNEATH THE NORTHERN
STREAM. EITHER WAY THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME RAIN...SO
WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE WEEK. WILLIS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PST SAT MAR 12 2005

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW IS INCREASING
TONIGHT...KEEPING THE AIR MASS DRY BUT TURNING GRADUALLY COOLER OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
WILL TURN THE FLOW BACK ONSHORE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AS A WEAK SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
ROCKIES. AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT IT WILL SERVE TO PUSH
SOME OF THE COOLER EAST SIDE AIR WEST ACROSS THE CASCADES. AS COOLER
AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN SUN AND MON WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND
UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO LOWER...SHOULD SEE A SLOW COOLING TREND
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GFS SHOWS A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW TUE AS
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THERE MAY BE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. LIKENS

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...EXTENDED
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE NORTHERLY FLOW FURTHER WEST AROUND
MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH IN THE FLOW. NOT LIKELY TO
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW TO GIVE MUCH CHANCE AT SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEMS ON WED AND THU...SO A VERY LOW
POP OK. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS TENDING TO SHOW ONE OF TWO
OUTCOMES...EITHER THE REGION STAYING IN THE NW FLOW...OR THE
WESTERLIES CUTTING IN UNDERNEATH THE NORTHERN STREAM. EITHER WAY
THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME RAIN...SO WILL KEEP IN CHANCE
POPS LATE IN THE WEEK. WILLIS


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
203 AM PST SUN MAR 13 2005

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
WILL TURN THE FLOW BACK ONSHORE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE SITS OFFSHORE LEAVING FORECAST AREA WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOLER LOW
LEVELS TO RESULT IN A FEW DEGREES COOLING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODELS GRADUALLY WEAKEN LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW...AND BEGIN TO TURN
IT ONSHORE BY TUE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME MARINE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST BY TUE...OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR.

.LONG TERM...THROUGH WED AND THU EXTENDED MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT.
FIRST SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN IN NORTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE AN
INLAND TRACK MEANING SYSTEM SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A MARINE
PUSH FOR MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS. SIMILAR SITUATION WITH THE
SYSTEM LATE THU...EXCEPT TRACK APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE COAST AND
SYSTEM PUSHES DOWN A BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NORTH. AS SUCH POPS
SHOULD BE PRETTY MINIMAL BOTH DAYS...FAVORING THE NORTH COASTAL
REGIONS WED...AND NORTH IN GENERAL BY THU. ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SOME
SIMILARITIES FRI AND SAT...ALLOWING A MORE WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP
AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER W OFF THE BC COAST.
WILL NOT PUT TOO MUCH STOCK IN ANY SINGLE SOLUTION...BUT RAIN CHANCES
APPEAR TO INCREASE IN THIS PATTERN.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
840 AM PST SUN MAR 13 2005

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE REGION. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL TURN THE FLOW BACK ONSHORE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE SITS OFFSHORE LEAVING FORECAST AREA WITH
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOLER
LOW LEVELS TO RESULT IN A FEW DEGREES COOLING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODELS GRADUALLY END THE WEAK LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW MON NIGHT...AND
BEGIN TO TURN IT ONSHORE BY TUE. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME MARINE
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST BY TUE...OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. WILLIS

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THROUGH WED AND THU EXTENDED MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT.
FIRST SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN IN NORTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE AN
INLAND TRACK MEANING SYSTEM SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A MARINE
PUSH FOR MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS. SIMILAR SITUATION WITH THE
SYSTEM LATE THU...EXCEPT TRACK APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE COAST AND
SYSTEM PUSHES DOWN A BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NORTH. AS SUCH POPS
SHOULD BE PRETTY MINIMAL BOTH DAYS...FAVORING THE NORTH COASTAL
REGIONS WED...AND NORTH IN GENERAL BY THU. ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SOME
SIMILARITIES FRI AND SAT...ALLOWING A MORE WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP
AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER W OFF THE BC COAST.
WILL NOT PUT TOO MUCH STOCK IN ANY SINGLE SOLUTION...BUT RAIN CHANCES
APPEAR TO INCREASE IN THIS PATTERN.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PST SUN MAR 13 2005

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TURN
THE FLOW BACK ONSHORE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH MON NIGHT
LEAVING FORECAST AREA WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AND HAVE RAISED SOME MAX TEMPS
ACCORDINGLY. MODELS GRADUALLY END THE WEAK LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
MON NIGHT...AND BEGIN TO TURN IT ONSHORE BY TUE. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SOME MARINE CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST BY TUE...OTHERWISE SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED A WEAK SYSTEM IN
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS MOIST LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AIDS WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER POPS WILL REMAIN
QUITE LOW WITH MINIMAL QPF...MAINLY OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE. LIKENS

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...GUIDANCE
ESPECIALLY GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE MINOR RAIN THREAT FOR THE THU
TIME FRAME. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN SHOWING SOME SIMILARITIES FRI
THROUGH SUN...ALLOWING A MORE WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER W OFF THE BC COAST. WILL
NOT PUT TOO MUCH STOCK IN ANY SINGLE SOLUTION AS THE LATEST ECMWF
MUCH WEAKER ON THE PATTERN...BUT THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILLIS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 AM PST MON MAR 14 2005

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE TODAY GIVES DRY NORTH FLOW TO AREA.
RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DRY NORTH LOW
LEVEL FLOW TODAY TURNS ONSHORE NORTHERN COAST TONIGHT AND ONSHORE
OVER NORTH PART OF AREA TUESDAY. FRONT FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES
THROUGH AREA WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW DECREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE PACIFIC FRONT THREATENS SOME
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...UPR RIDGE OFFSHORE TODAY SLIDES W TONIGHT. STILL DRY N
FLOW FOR AREA TODAY. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY THEN YESTERDAY
AS OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKER. LOW PRES MOVING INTO BC TONIGHT STARTS TO
TURN FLOW ONSHORE NRN COAST. WILL ADD LOW CLOUDS NRN COAST WITH SOME
FOG LATE. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TUE NRN COAST AND SPREADS ACROSS N
INTERIOR. THIS KEEPS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS NRN COAST WITH SOME
CLOUDS DEVELOPING INLAND N. WITH ONSHORE FLOW COOLER TEMPS TUE WITH
LEAST AMOUNT OF COOLING S PART. GFS/EURO/CANADIAN VERY CLOSE AND
CONSISTENT WITH FRONT DROPPING S FROM BC WED. ETA WEAKER SHOWING
SYSTEM REMAINING FURTHER N AND E. WITH CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT
BETWEEN OTHER MODELS WILL GO WITH STRONGER SOLUTION. THIS GIVES
SOLID THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION NRN MOUNTAINS TUE WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS N AND CENTRAL PART OF AREA. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WED
COOLS TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH STRONG COOLING MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...WED NIGHT AND THU EURO/CANADIAN KEEPS TROUGH CLOSER TO
AREA AND WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION THREAT
ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP CURRENT DRY FORECAST
WHICH GFS SUPPORT AND WILL SEE WHAT DEVELOPS TOMORROW. BEYOND THAT
GFS/EURO/CANADIAN STILL CLOSE WITH SOLUTION. ALL SUPPORT STRONG
SPLITTING OFFSHORE WITH SRN BRANCH INTO SRN CA. WILL ADD DRY
FORECAST TO THU NIGHT AND FRI. FRI NIGHT AND SAT ALSO TRENDING TO
DRY THOUGH WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR NOW. KOSOVITZ



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
902 AM PST MON MAR 14 2005

.SYNOPSIS...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOME MARINE CLOUDS IN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST TONIGHT. A SYSTEM DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BRUSH THE AREA WED FOR A
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY OVER THE CASCADES. A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THU AND FRI BEFORE A PACIFIC FRONT
THREATENS SOME PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...GUIDANCE SHOWS THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
RETREATING TO THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINTAINING DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT BUT ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WEAKLY TURN ONSHORE
TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MINOR COOLING TODAY ALTHOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE COAST. SATELLITE SHOWS A REGION OF LOW CLOUDS OFF THE
WA COAST WHICH SHOULD ADVECT TO OUR NORTH COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUE HELPING TO MAINTAIN
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH BC BRUSHES
OUR AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION
WED ESPECIALLY OVER THE CASCADES. VALLEY QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT
WITH MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
YIELD A LITTLE BETTER AMOUNTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WED COOLS TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH STRONG COOLING MOUNTAINS.
WILLIS

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WED NIGHT AND THU EURO/CANADIAN KEEPS TROUGH CLOSER TO
AREA AND WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION THREAT
ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP CURRENT DRY FORECAST
WHICH GFS SUPPORT AND WILL SEE WHAT DEVELOPS TOMORROW. BEYOND THAT
GFS/EURO/CANADIAN STILL CLOSE WITH SOLUTION. ALL SUPPORT STRONG
SPLITTING OFFSHORE WITH SRN BRANCH INTO SRN CA. WILL ADD DRY
FORECAST TO THU NIGHT AND FRI. FRI NIGHT AND SAT ALSO TRENDING TO
DRY THOUGH WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR NOW. KOSOVITZ