May 24th 2005

The thoughts expressed in this column are pure speculation of the weather pattern.

Dry times in the upper midwest, Eastern Missouri are about up. Infact will come crashing down come Sunday. Wailing and nashing to begain. Unsettled weather is back and is pissed.

The dry and slightly above normal weather the past month over most of Missouri, and the upper Midwest is about to come crashing down in a big hurry! Little taste of it last week with one small bout of severe weather but the severe weather is about to come back and shes in heat. The hints the pattern is ready to break is just off to the east by a couple hundred miles. The low level jet which has become active the past week or two across Extream southwestern MO, Arkansas, and Oklahoma is showing signs it will move westward. Over the past couple weeks this area has experinced whopping rainfall numbers, multiple severe wx outbreaks and flooding. This is known as a Mesoclycone. Which typically form at night just after the sun goes down. Fuled by the heat that has built up earlier in the day these storms rapidly form and in most cases cause heavy downpours, and training effects over a area for hours at a time. These storms can also contain massive amounts of lightning and strong winds. Although they do not typically cause a large number of tornadoes. Last year back in June and early July this pattern really was alive with multiple days in a row with severe weather, flooding and hail damage. based on the GFS model this pattern will really start to come alive on Sunday and last for about the next 15 days or so. Im really alarmed by what the GFS and other models show around day 8 which can be a possible major tornado outbreak. They show a sharp cool front that will move thru the midwest similar to this same time last year on memorial day when a major tornado outbreak occured across Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, and Nebraska as a strong cool front moved thru into a humid airmass.. After day 8 the weather will settle down for a couple days then back to the same rock and roll pattern again with severe thunderstorms possible each night over the night time hours. So bottom line is Sunday look for a big change in the pattern that should last most of June with slightly below normal temps WAY above normal precip, and multiple severe weather events for Eastern Missouri. Tornado sirens may finally get to be used for the first time this season. So keep a eagle eye to the sky as fun times are about to begin for us! Also stay tuned for My daily hurricane disco starting next week.
Until next time injoy your severe wx its the only weather you got.
The Big Tom outlook is a daily discussion and speculation of the weather patter for Eastern Missouri and Illinions and surrounding areas from Quincy IL westward to Jefferson City MO South from Joplin MO eastward to Paducha KY and northward to Springfield IL including the St. Louis metro area.