Over the last hour or two a tropical wave/distrabance has moved to around 58 west.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/CAR_latest.gif


Also a high pressure area has started to build to the north(Now all the to 65 west) of the Distrabance/Wave. As that builds southwestward the Ull over the central Caribbean centered at 15 north/74 west is moving westward. The jet streak/Max is now located around 70 west. As this pattern enhances it has formed a Upper level high over the Eastern Caribbean right over our system. You can see that with the clouds which it is centered near 65 west/15 north. Also because of the high to the north getting stronger the system has picked up speed over the last few satellite images. In has also developed from a spread out area of thunderstorms/convection to a ball of convection centered near 13 north/59 west or long the wave axis.

So we got a upper high building to the north. Which should steer this to the west or west-northwest over the next 24 to 36 hours. Then we got a upper high forming over or near the system by the clockwise movement an the overall turning an the clouds.

The Cmc has it on target so far...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/...city&hour=000hr
This shows the 250 millibar pattern very good.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/...city&hour=000hr

The shear map shows that the jet max is centered around 70 west. With a upper level high over our system.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/...hear&hour=000hr

12 hours 925 mililbars
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/...city&hour=012hr
The system enters the caribbeans.

At 18 to 24 hours it shows the system becoming better defined.
18 hours
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/...city&hour=018hr
24 hours
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/...city&hour=024hr

By 36 to 42 hours you can see a weakness/trough moving into southeastern Canada.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/...sure&hour=042hr

48 hours a weakness appears at 80 west.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/...sure&hour=048hr

60 hours
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/...sure&hour=060hr

By 72 hours the weakness starts to left out. While a area of high pressure starts forming off the southeast coast. Around 45 north.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/...sure&hour=072hr

By 96 hours this area of high pressure moves north of it. Which would push it to the west.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/...sure&hour=096hr

108 hours
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/...sure&hour=108hr

By 120 hours it has a 1000 millibar or so tropical storm off the coast.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/...sure&hour=120hr

By that time a trough/Jet stream is to the northeast.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/...city&hour=120hr

The 12z nogaps builds the high pressure to the north way to late. Which is why it doe's not forecast this to play out. The Gfs is not doing very good for the past few weeks. In so it was not used. In which case it pushes a tropical wave into the western Caribbean with pressure falls.

jb is indicating possible tropical trouble this weekend in the gom

It is 94L. In looks to have perfect outflow. 10 knot shear. In appears to still have much model support.

Look at this it is almost has a closed Cirualtion.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataim...oms/WMBas20.png

041
WHXX01 KWBC 222038
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20050622 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050622 1800 050623 0600 050623 1800 050624 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.5N 71.0W 17.7N 73.1W 19.2N 74.5W 21.0N 75.2W
BAMM 16.5N 71.0W 17.8N 73.4W 19.1N 75.3W 20.4N 76.6W
A98E 16.5N 71.0W 17.4N 72.8W 18.5N 74.5W 20.0N 75.7W
LBAR 16.5N 71.0W 17.5N 72.8W 19.0N 74.2W 20.5N 75.4W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 36KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050624 1800 050625 1800 050626 1800 050627 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.3N 75.6W 28.2N 75.9W 32.2N 75.8W 33.5N 75.6W
BAMM 22.0N 77.6W 24.9N 79.3W 27.6N 80.7W 29.5N 82.4W
A98E 22.0N 76.7W 25.9N 79.1W 29.6N 79.7W 31.7N 79.7W
LBAR 22.4N 76.3W 26.8N 77.1W 31.1N 77.8W 33.3N 79.2W
SHIP 46KTS 47KTS 45KTS 40KTS
DSHP 34KTS 35KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 71.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 15.7N LONM12 = 69.1W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 66.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

The Gfs,Cmc,Gfdl all show this thing developing. :lol:

Because the shear over it is only 5 to 10 knots. In has decreased from this morning...The Cmc,Gfs,Gfdl(18z) develop a low pressure system that moves across cuba into the western Atlatnic. Then up the coast of Florida. There is a low level trough already by quickscats. The convection has just fired over the high mountains of Hati tonight. In I expect it to come back as it moves away west-northwest for the next 24 to 36 hours. Then a northwest movement then after. I also expect a cyclone out of this. Reason is the models are at this like they where with Arlene now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...nds/wg8shr.html

i think it may develop south of cuba and head into the gom!!

By the navy the center of invest 94L is at 17.2/75.5 on the northeast side of that ball of conection.

i still think it will head to the gom

A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS
FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND A TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

CMI ATL TPC

ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

ISSUED 1830Z, 24TH JUNE 2005



...DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAHAMAS GETTING BETTER ORGANISED...



SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER AFFECTING PARTS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS IS GETTING BETTER ORGANISED. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF MUTLIPLE CENTRES AT PRESENT, WITH AN APPARENT ONE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FORECAST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE. AT PRESENT THE WORST OF THE WEATHER IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS, WITH THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS BEING RELATIVELY FREE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT THIS TIME. FORECASTS TRACK THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND BRING IT TO NEAR THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATER SUNDAY. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOESNT BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE BAHAMAS, FLORIDA, AND GEORGIA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CMI WILL CLOSELY MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND MAY ISSUE WATCHES OR WARNINGS LATE TODAY IF REQUIRED.

...WIND IMPACTS...

GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE, ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS. STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER-FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST, AND THE GEORGIA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

...RAIN IMPACTS...

HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFECT THE BAHAMAS, AND WILL SPREAD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND GEORGIA OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF UPTO 4" ARE POSSIBLE.

...COASTAL IMPACTS...

COASTAL IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LARGELY BE LIMITED TO GUSTY WINDS. ROUGH SURF IS POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED COASTS.

...PREPAREDNESS...

PERSONS IN THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN US SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR OFFICIAL PRODUCTS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.



THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT WILL BE UPDATED, REPLACED BY A TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY IF REQUIRED, OR DISCONTINUED BY 2200Z, 24TH JUNE 2005.



FORECASTER RPB

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS
FROM JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP TROPICAL WAVE THAT
EXTENDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20050624 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050624 1800 050625 0600 050625 1800 050626 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.0N 74.0W 29.5N 74.6W 31.9N 75.7W 34.2N 76.5W
BAMM 27.0N 74.0W 29.2N 74.9W 31.2N 76.1W 33.0N 76.8W
A98E 27.0N 74.0W 29.3N 74.0W 31.7N 73.8W 33.5N 73.4W
LBAR 27.0N 74.0W 29.2N 73.8W 31.0N 73.8W 32.3N 73.6W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 40KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 40KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050626 1800 050627 1800 050628 1800 050629 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 36.2N 77.2W 39.1N 76.4W 41.3N 73.4W 43.4N 66.3W
BAMM 34.6N 77.4W 37.2N 77.5W 39.8N 76.1W 43.0N 70.7W
A98E 34.8N 73.2W 36.4N 74.1W 38.2N 73.3W 41.6N 66.2W
LBAR 33.1N 73.0W 33.7N 72.2W 34.1N 72.4W 35.3N 72.0W
SHIP 47KTS 44KTS 36KTS 28KTS
DSHP 41KTS 29KTS 29KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.0N LONCUR = 74.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 24.0N LONM12 = 74.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 20.5N LONM24 = 73.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A SHARP TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THEN
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR A SMALL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS
DEVELOPED ABOUT 170 MILES NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...AND A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM ON SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW. INTERESTS ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE CAROLINAS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM THE COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS JAMAICA TO EASTERN
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD OCCUR OVER
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

ABNT20 KNHC 250901
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THEN
EXTENDING EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
CONCENTRATED NEAR A SMALL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD FORM LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS ALONG
AND NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE CAROLINAS
..SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

The recon did not find a LLC. No upgrade.

Wow right about when it was moving into the Cape. It tighten up in looking at satellite/Radar shows a tight cirualtion. Also Buoys show it to.

Southwest quad

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=clkn7

Northern quad
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=ducn7

Southeast quad
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41025

It could be but the NHC has the final word.

Your right Huk.

Here is what the nhc has to say.

WONT41 KNHC 261425
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1025 AM EDT 26 JUN 2005

RADAR AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED
NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN MOREHEAD CITY AND
CAPE HATTERAS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FROM SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH...ALONG
THE COAST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1110 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
SFC LOW HAS FORMED NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE PAMLICO SOUND.
SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND LOW HAVE BEEN PRODUCING WINDS OF 25 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AND NHC DOES NOT EXPECT THIS DEVELOP MUCH MORE. HAD
TO ADJUST POPS FOR AREAS EAST AND NORTH OF LOW TO CATEGORICAL.
CONTINUED 40 POP FOR COUNTIES WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW. ALSO
LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER WILL PREVAIL.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO ZFP.


The way I see it, is this will be every bit like a tropical depression. This is everything it needed but a offical spot.

Also to note is that the area of 25 to 35 mph winds. Where very large with this system by Buoys with quickscats. We will see a tropical depression or two sooner or later that will not even give more then 10 mph winds over your house. With a pocket of 30 mph winds under a thunderstorms. This was more organized then most depression. That is food for thought. Even through is was a suprize in very short lived. Maybe not more then 3 or 4 hours.(In not offically one)

43 mph gust over its northwest quad. In it still looks good as it moves off to the northeast. A little discupling going on as it moves into the cooler waters. I expect a upgrade to a tropial storm on the best track later this season.

that may happen

It could happen, look at this example from 2000, that storm was never upgraded until best track came.

Yeah I agree...This development was a big suprize.

Here is a pic of it...
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sat_ir/0506/05062700.gif

I'm so sure that this was at least a tropical depression. If not a tropcial storm. It has been moved into the 2005 Atlatnic storm forum.

Here is my report

Unnamed tropical storm
Review 1#
June 26-2005
11pm pst

A unnamed tropical cyclone formed around late June...

A broad enlongated area of low pressure was moving northward. With most of its covection/weather over the northern quad. The recon found that it no longer/never did have a surface reflection by the 25th of June. Later that night a high pressure formed to its north. Which turned the broad area of low pressure westward with its convectoin/energy. This system had formed a more tropical appearance by around 2am est 26th June. The system then started to get oreganizion as it was moving west-northwestward. As it was moving at the outter banks the cyclone started to form a central core/wind field. The system then started to form a low level cirulation. By 8am est the system was moving through the outter banks. In which case the buoys around 50 to 80 miles apart clearly shown that there was a area of surface low pressure/LLC. The wind out of the southwestern quad was to the southeast. A buoy on the eastern quad shown a northward wind. While a buoy on the northeast shown that a northeastward wind had formed. Quickscats at that time shown a closed cirualtion with winds of 25 to 30 mph. As it moved started to move inland at 15 mph to the west-northwest or northwest. It shown up on radar as a tightly packed system with feeder bands. Also as it was moving inland it had started to form real defined bands around the center. Wind gust where from 30 to 40 mph with heavy rainfall. The system then turned to the north by later that morning. Moving back off the coast by around 5pm pst/8pm est. The system was still very oreganized with a clearly defined LLC. Wind reports of 38 mph at a c-man station near the northwest quad was reported. With a report of 43 mph gust...Other reports of 30 mph or more have been reported...This system also has a large area of 20 to 25 mph winds. In which case your normal gulf of Mexico depression you would be likely to have heavy rain with 10 mph winds.

The system kepted moving northeastward over the cooler waters just off the east coast. The system started to show signs of slow decoupling.

Looking at the data this may have been a weak tropical storm as it made landfall. Then again as it was moving back over the water.

I say 40 mph winds Pressure...1014 millibars


Rain reports from .25 to over a inch...


Forecaster Matthew