It appears that the LLC/MLC has moved west-northwest. In is now forming some pretty impressive convection right over it. Also has nice outflow with low shear. It should track to the west-northwest. The wind shear is only around 5 to 10 mph over the system. In is also becoming more favable. The Gfs model takes it to the west-northwest then makes landfall around 36 hours. I think this could develop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html

WHXX01 KWBC 280457
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20050628 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050628 0000 050628 1200 050629 0000 050629 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.2N 93.0W 20.1N 94.1W 20.9N 95.4W 21.6N 97.0W
BAMM 19.2N 93.0W 20.3N 94.2W 20.9N 95.5W 21.6N 97.0W
A98E 19.2N 93.0W 20.3N 93.8W 21.2N 94.9W 22.3N 95.8W
LBAR 19.2N 93.0W 20.2N 94.9W 21.7N 97.1W 23.0N 99.5W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050630 0000 050701 0000 050702 0000 050703 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.3N 98.7W 23.1N 102.4W 22.8N 106.0W 22.2N 109.5W
BAMM 22.3N 98.6W 23.7N 101.8W 24.2N 104.6W 24.4N 107.2W
A98E 22.8N 97.5W 22.6N 100.6W 23.0N 104.0W 23.3N 106.5W
LBAR 24.2N 101.8W 26.6N 105.3W 27.9N 106.6W 29.1N 105.5W
SHIP 43KTS 50KTS 54KTS 53KTS
DSHP 33KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 93.0W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 17.9N LONM12 = 91.9W DIRM12 = 328DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 90.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

WHXX01 KWBC 280600
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20050628 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050628 0600 050628 1800 050629 0600 050629 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.7N 93.7W 20.4N 95.2W 21.1N 96.8W 21.8N 98.5W
BAMM 19.7N 93.7W 20.5N 95.1W 21.0N 96.6W 21.7N 98.2W
A98E 19.7N 93.7W 20.8N 94.9W 21.9N 96.0W 23.0N 97.4W
LBAR 19.7N 93.7W 20.6N 95.3W 21.9N 97.4W 23.2N 99.8W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050630 0600 050701 0600 050702 0600 050703 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.5N 100.2W 23.7N 103.7W 24.0N 106.4W 23.9N 108.5W
BAMM 22.4N 99.9W 23.9N 102.9W 24.4N 105.4W 24.4N 107.6W
A98E 24.1N 99.1W 27.2N 101.9W 29.5N 101.8W 32.1N 97.0W
LBAR 24.5N 102.1W 26.6N 105.4W 27.9N 106.6W 29.2N 104.9W
SHIP 42KTS 47KTS 50KTS 50KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.7N LONCUR = 93.7W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 18.6N LONM12 = 92.4W DIRM12 = 321DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 17.1N LONM24 = 91.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMMT.html

Wind from the NNW (330 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT)
Sky conditions overcast
Pressure (altimeter) 29.84 in. Hg (1010 hPa)
ob MMMT 280145Z 33010KT 7SMBKN015 OVC03026/24 A2984 RMK 8/7// RA VC VARBS CONDS

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

West wind has been reported to the southwest of the center. This is real close. 12 mph...

Yet another station reporting northwest southwest of the center. Fairly weak but there it is.

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/76741.html


This reporting station is a long ways from the LLC to the southwest. But this shows how strong the LLC is getting its winds have turned out of the northwest.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVR.html

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AROUND
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...ABOUT 140 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER. INTERESTS
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL COASTS OF MEXICO...AND IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART


It looks like one now!!!

looks like a td may have already formed!!

The LLC seems to be moving to the west-northwest around 10 mph. But the convection is so impressive its location is tricky. I think it is around 20.1/94.8 at this time. You can see the clouds wraping into the system from the south. Then again from the northwestern quad. Wind reports on the coast are already over 20 mph. In all the buoys/obs show that there is at the least a broad area of low pressure/LLC. Also if you look at the southwest side you can start to see the start of outflow spreading southwestward. The favable enviroment it is in with only 10 knot shear. The 20 knot shear is above 23-24 north. Thats decreasing...A landfall with an the next 24 to 36 hours is likely. The system should also move to the west-northwest or maybe even some skips to the northwest. Some of the earier Quickscats shown that there might be winds of 25 to 30 mph. That was 6 hours or so ago. I'm guesting this would be a good bit stronger. I'm going to say that this has a good chance of becoming bret.

Also to note that line of showers heading northeastward from our system. That is a surface trough. While the Subtropical jet is slowly pushing westward away from our system. That is the line of winds/clouds you see at around 96 west. Above that is dry air below that is moist air.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 95L



INITIAL TIME 6Z JUN 28



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 19.6 93.2 315./ 8.0

6 20.5 93.9 319./10.8

12 20.1 94.5 242./ 6.2

18 19.8 95.1 238./ 6.8

24 19.8 95.4 268./ 2.6

30 20.1 95.7 324./ 4.1

36 20.6 95.9 331./ 5.9

42 21.3 96.9 306./11.3

48 21.9 97.8 303./ 9.6

54 22.3 98.2 310./ 6.0

60 20.9 96.0 122./24.9

66 18.2 94.5 151./29.9

72 18.3 94.1 85./ 4.3



STORM DISSIPATED AT 72 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

28/1745 UTC 19.4N 95.2W T2.0/2.0 95 -- Atlantic Ocean


This looks like a 3.0/3.0 what the heck is wrong with this. In why is this not upgraded??? I can't wait for recon.

PRELIMINARY INFORMATION FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED UPON RECEIPT OF MORE COMPLETE
INFORMATION FROM THE AIRCRAFT. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM
TO THE COASTLINE...LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BEFORE
IT MOVES INLAND BETWEEN VERACRUZ AND TAMPICO OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ...AND TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THIS AREA.

Derek ortts forecast :silly:

2100 UTC 6/28/2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 FORECAST #1

This is an independent product

Satellite imagery shows that the area of low-pressure in the Bay of Campeche has enough organization to be called a tropical depression. Recon will determine whether or not this is a storm.

500mb winds from the Yucatan suggest that there should be some northerly component to the wids. However, to the nroth, winds are primarily easterly, which will drive this depression westward, which is what the guidance suggests. MM5 is having some problems tracking a center, mainly due to the mountains, what track it does indicate is slightly south of due west. Since this was run off of the 12Z GFS, which did not have this feature, I am discounting this track and will go with the WNW heading, with a slight acceleration, bringing the system inland in about 12 hours. After landfall, a more westward track is expected.

Atmospheric conditions appear favorable for some further development. MM5 does show some intensification before moving inland. I am going to err on the side of caution and go ahead and forecast this to become a tropical storm just prior to making landfall. I would rather over forcast by 5KT, than have any surprise that this has become a tropical storm.

Initial: 19.7N 95.5W 25KT
12 Hour: 20.3N 96.7W 35KT (near the coast)
24 Hour: 20.7N 98.1W 30KT (inland)
36 Hour: 20.8N 99.6W 15KT (inland and dissipating)


Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

000
WHXX01 KWBC 282119
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO (AL022005) ON 20050628 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050628 1800 050629 0600 050629 1800 050630 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.8N 95.5W 20.3N 97.3W 21.0N 99.3W 21.9N 101.3W
BAMM 19.8N 95.5W 20.2N 97.3W 20.9N 99.3W 21.8N 101.2W
A98E 19.8N 95.5W 20.3N 97.0W 21.0N 98.7W 22.0N 100.5W
LBAR 19.8N 95.5W 20.4N 97.6W 21.4N 100.4W 22.9N 103.2W
SHIP 30KTS 41KTS 50KTS 56KTS
DSHP 30KTS 41KTS 50KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050630 1800 050701 1800 050702 1800 050703 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.5N 103.2W 22.5N 107.0W 21.9N 111.4W 21.4N 116.3W
BAMM 22.5N 103.1W 22.9N 106.8W 22.7N 111.0W 22.8N 115.4W
A98E 23.2N 102.7W 24.1N 107.1W 24.5N 110.7W 24.6N 113.0W
LBAR 24.2N 105.8W 26.2N 109.6W 26.6N 111.4W 27.2N 111.5W
SHIP 60KTS 64KTS 61KTS 60KTS
DSHP 33KTS 28KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.8N LONCUR = 95.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 19.4N LONM12 = 94.0W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 18.6N LONM24 = 92.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Tropical Depression Two Special Forecast/Advisory Number 1


Statement as of 22:00Z on June 28, 2005



at 5 PM CDT...2200 UTC...the government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning from Veracruz to Tampico. A Tropical Storm
Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning area within the next 24 hours.

Tropical depression center located near 19.9n 95.7w at 28/2200z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 6 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1004 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 19.9n 95.7w at 28/2200z
at 28/1800z center was located near 19.8n 95.5w

forecast valid 29/0600z 20.2n 96.6w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 30ne 30se 30sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 29/1800z 20.7n 97.7w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Forecast valid 30/0600z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 19.9n 95.7w

next advisory at 29/0300z

forecaster Franklin/Pasch

Time: 21:12:20Z
Latitude: 19.8°N
Longitude: 95.7°W
Location: 59 mi NE of Vera Cruz, Mexico
Minimum height at NA mb NA m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: 40 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: 16 mi ENE (66°)
Maximum flight level wind: NW (310°) @ 46 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 3 mi SSW (207°)
Sea level pressure: 1004 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 72°F at 958 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 75°F at 948 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 73°F
Eye character: CLOSED
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 3 mi
#VALUE!
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 3 nm
AF304 01CCA INVEST OB 10
MAX FL WIND 40 KT SW QUAD 21:10:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.


This says it has a closed eye which is 3 nmi wide. 40 mph surface winds over the southwest quad. Can you say tropical storm.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 282158
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A
SMALL WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. DESPITE PROBLEMS WITH
COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT...THE CREW HAS BEEN ABLE TO PHONE IN KEY
OBSERVATIONS. OUR THANKS TO THE CREW FOR RESPONDING ON SUCH SHORT
NOTICE AND FOR THEIR PERSISTENCE IN TRYING TO GET THE DATA OUT.

SO FAR...THE AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND A FEW SMALL SPOTS WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OVER 40 KT...INDICATING THAT THE WINDS ARE VERY NEAR TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH. THIS SYSTEM CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL...BUT SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO THE LIMITED TIME THE CYCLONE
WILL BE OVER WATER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/6. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTH TEXAS...AND REACH THE MEXICAN
COASTLINE IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2200Z 19.9N 95.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 20.2N 96.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 20.7N 97.7W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTNT32 KNHC 282328
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BRET INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM BRET. IN ONLY
TWELVE PREVIOUS YEARS SINCE 1851...MOST RECENTLY IN 1986...HAVE TWO
OR MORE TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN THE MONTH OF JUNE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 90 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 130
MILES... 210 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

BRET IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ...8 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER
MOVES INLAND.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...19.9 N... 95.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

851
URNT12 KNHC 282300
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/22:35:20Z
B. 19 deg 53 min N
095 deg 43 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 55 kt
E. 121 deg 006 nm
F. 203 deg 045 kt
G. 085 deg 004 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 24 C/ 328 m
J. 25 C/ 322 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C3
N. 12345/01
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 01CCA INVEST OB 13
MAX FL WIND 45 KT SE QUAD 22:29:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT

it popped up fast

Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on June 28, 2005



...Bret moving slowly toward the coast of Mexico...
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Veracruz to Tampico.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located
near latitude 20.0 north...longitude 95.9 west or about 60 miles...
95 km...north-northeast of Veracruz Mexico and about 120 miles...
190 km...southeast of tuxpan Mexico.

Bret is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph
... 7 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours. Bret is expected to make landfall within the warning
area sometime tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before Bret reaches
the coastline.

Bret is a very small tropical cyclone...with tropical storm force
winds extending outward up to 35 miles ... 55 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches...with locally higher
amounts over mountainous terrain...are possible in association with
Bret.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...20.0 N... 95.9 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 5 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1 am CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Franklin

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

ON THEIR LAST PASS THROUGH BRET NEAR 00Z...THE AIRCRAFT CREW
REPORTED THAT THE PRESSURE HAD RISEN TO 1005 MB...THAT THE SEA
STATE LOOKED LESS DISTURBED THAN IT HAD BEEN...AND THAT THE RADAR
PRESENTATION HAD DETERIORATED. THUS IT APPEARS THAT THE EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT TREND HAS STALLED. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE CDO
FEATURE HAVE ALSO WARMED OVERALL THIS EVENING BUT ARE BEGINNING TO
COOL AGAIN NOW. THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM.
WINDS ALOFT ARE FAVORABLE AND THE WATERS UNDERNEATH ARE VERY WARM.
BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE SOME MODEST
INTENSIFICATION AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONE
CAUTION...HOWEVER...IS THAT BRET IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND SUCH SYSTEMS CAN SPIN UP...OR DOWN...VERY QUICKLY.

THE SEQUENCE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES YIELDED LITTLE OVERALL MOTION...BUT
OVER THE LONGER TERM THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/4. THIS IS
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE AND ALSO A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS MOTION. THIS SUGGESTS THAT BRET MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE
TIME OVER WATER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER
TEXAS SHOULD KEEP BRET ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK UNTIL IT
MAKES LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL MODEL IS AN OUTLIER IN
FORECASTING BRET TO STALL OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE 850 MB EVOLUTION IN THE LATEST GFS RUN. BECAUSE OF
THE OBLIQUE ANGLE AT WHICH BRET WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COASTLINE...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY PRECISELY THE LOCATION OR
TIMING OF LANDFALL.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 20.0N 95.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 20.3N 96.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 20.9N 97.4W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 30/1200Z 21.5N 98.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTNT32 KNHC 290229
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BRET ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

...BRET MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...
95 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 120 MILES...
190 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

BRET IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH
... 7 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BRET IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA SOMETIME TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE BRET REACHES
THE COASTLINE.

BRET IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES ... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
BRET.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...20.0 N... 95.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 2a


Statement as of 1:00 am CDT on June 29, 2005



...Bret moving a little faster as it nears the coast of Mexico...
...Outer rainbands already onshore...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Veracruz to Tampico.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located
near latitude 20.4 north...longitude 96.4 west or about 75 miles...
120 km...east-southeast of tuxpan Mexico and about 160 miles... 255
km...southeast of Tampico Mexico.

Bret is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph ... 13
km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the
next 24 hours. Bret is expected to make landfall within the warning
area during the day on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before Bret reaches
the coastline.

Bret is a very small tropical cyclone...with tropical storm force
winds extending outward up to 35 miles... 55 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches...with locally higher
amounts over mountainous terrain...are possible in association with
Bret.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...20.4 N... 96.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
4 am CDT.

Forecaster Knabb

WHXX01 KWBC 290648
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM BRET (AL022005) ON 20050629 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050629 0600 050629 1800 050630 0600 050630 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.4N 96.4W 21.3N 98.1W 22.2N 99.9W 23.0N 101.5W
BAMM 20.4N 96.4W 21.4N 98.0W 22.3N 99.6W 23.2N 101.0W
A98E 20.4N 96.4W 21.2N 97.8W 21.9N 99.2W 22.8N 100.6W
LBAR 20.4N 96.4W 21.2N 98.2W 22.4N 100.4W 23.7N 102.5W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 46KTS 50KTS
DSHP 35KTS 35KTS 30KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050701 0600 050702 0600 050703 0600 050704 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.3N 103.0W 22.9N 106.2W 22.5N 109.9W 22.3N 113.7W
BAMM 23.6N 102.4W 23.6N 105.5W 23.4N 109.3W 23.4N 113.1W
A98E 23.8N 102.3W 25.3N 105.4W 26.0N 106.5W 26.6N 105.4W
LBAR 24.8N 104.5W 25.6N 107.3W 25.1N 109.0W 23.8N 111.2W
SHIP 53KTS 55KTS 55KTS 55KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.4N LONCUR = 96.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 19.8N LONM12 = 95.5W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 19.4N LONM24 = 94.0W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM

Tropical Storm Bret Forecast/Advisory Number 3


Statement as of 09:00Z on June 29, 2005



a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Veracruz to Tampico.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm center located near 20.6n 96.7w at 29/0900z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 7 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1005 mb
Max sustained winds 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
34 kt....... 30ne 30se 30sw 30nw.
12 ft seas.. 30ne 30se 30sw 30nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 20.6n 96.7w at 29/0900z
at 29/0600z center was located near 20.4n 96.4w

forecast valid 29/1800z 21.1n 97.6w...inland
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 40ne 40se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 30/0600z 21.7n 98.5w...dissipating
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Forecast valid 30/1800z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 20.6n 96.7w

next advisory at 29/1500z

forecaster Knabb

Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 3


Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on June 29, 2005



...Conditions deteriorating along portions of the coast of Mexico as
Bret approaches...
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Veracruz to Tampico.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 4 am CDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located
near latitude 20.6 north... longitude 96.7 west or about 55
miles... 85 km... east-southeast of tuxpan Mexico and about 135
miles... 215 km...southeast of Tampico Mexico.

Bret is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph... 13 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24
hours. Bret is expected to make landfall within the warning area
later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is still possible before Bret
reaches the coastline.

Bret is a very small tropical cyclone...with tropical storm force
winds extending outward up to 35 miles... 55 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches...with locally higher
amounts over mountainous terrain...are possible in association with
Bret.

Repeating the 4 am CDT position...20.6 N... 96.7 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 7 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 am
CDT.

Forecaster Knabb

000
WTNT42 KNHC 290854
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2005

BRET MAINTAINED FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD A FAIRLY TIGHT
CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AS DEPICTED IN SSMI
IMAGERY NEAR 03Z...AND SUFFICIENT FOR 06Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF
T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE SINCE WARMED A
BIT NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION...BUT LACKING ANY EVIDENCE
TO THE CONTRARY...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. ONLY A
SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY REMAINS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE
THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
INDEED...BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL...AND ABRUPT WEAKENING OF THIS SMALL
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

THE 03Z SSMI OVERPASS AND GOES SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT
BRET IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH INITIAL
MOTION NOW ESTIMATED AT 300/7. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER TO THE COAST SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT BASICALLY ALONG THE SAME HEADING. WHILE THE GFDL
CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT THE STORM WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE...ALL
OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A STEADY MOTION INLAND...WHICH SEEMS
THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED. DUE TO
THE ANGLE AT WHICH BRET IS APPROACHING THE COASTLINE...IT REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY PRECISELY THE LOCATION OR TIMING OF LANDFALL.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 20.6N 96.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 21.1N 97.6W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 30/0600Z 21.7N 98.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

CMI ATL TPC

TROPICAL STORM BRET

INTERMEDIATE TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY 01A

ISSUED 0900Z, 29TH JUNE 2005



...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN VERACRUZ AND TAMPICO...



AT 0900Z THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN, MEXICO. BRET IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 8 MPH, AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTRE INLAND LATER TODAY IN THE VICINITY OF TUXPAN, MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE TROPICAL STORM MAKES LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BRET IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL STORM, WITH WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ONLY EXTENDING OUT UPTO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTRE..

...WIND IMPACTS...

WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA OF WHERE THE CENTRE MOVES ONSHORE.

...RAIN IMPACTS...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4" TO 6" ARE LIKELY NEAR AND NORTH OF WHERE THE STORM TRACKS. SOME ISOALTED AMOUNTS TO 8" OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN POORLY DRAINED OR LOW LYING AREAS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A INCREASED RISK OF RIVER FLOODING DUE TO THIS STORM SYSTEM.

...COASTAL IMPACTS...

HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR AND NORTH OF WHERE THE BRET MAKES LANDFALL.

...PREPAREDNESS...

PERSONS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ZONE SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE RISK OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF TODAY.



THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY IS SCHEDULED FOR ISSUANCE AT 2100z WEDNESDAY, BUT AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED AT ANYTIME.



FORECASTER RPB

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2005

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT BRET HAS MOVED INLAND
JUST SOUTH OF...OR VERY NEAR...TUXPAN. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES
STILL SHOW A WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
AND BRET IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. THERE
MIGHT BE SOME TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER WATER.

BRET IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT
7 KNOTS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER FARTHER INLAND AND
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 21.0N 97.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 21.5N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
24HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BRET INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

...BRET MOVING INLAND MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS
MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 97.4 WEST...VERY
NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO.

BRET IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...BRINGING THE CENTER OF BRET FARTHER INLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY OVER WATER. BRET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT
MOVES INLAND.

BRET IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
BRET.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...20.8 N... 97.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

...BRET WEAKENS AND CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MEXICO HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET WAS
LOCATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 21.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES... 20 KM...WEST OF
TUXPAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER OF
BRET FARTHER INLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER WATER. BRET WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH BRET.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...21.0 N... 97.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

Tropical Depression Bret Advisory Number 5


Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on June 29, 2005


...Bret producing heavy rains over the state of Veracruz Mexico...

at 4 PM CDT...2100z...Tropical Depression Bret was centered inland
over the state of Veracruz near latitude 21.8 north...longitude
98.6 west or about 55 miles...85 km...west-southwest of Tampico
Mexico.

The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph...19
km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph...45 km/hr...
with higher gusts. Bret is expected to degenerate into a low
pressure area tonight.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.
Total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches...with isolated
amounts up to 10 inches mainly over mountainous terrain...are
possible in association with Bret. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...21.8 N... 98.6 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 30 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
10 PM CDT.

Forecaster Avila

000
WTNT42 KNHC 292030
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2005

BRET HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE FATHER INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ
MEXICO. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED WITH DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...DATA FROM A FEW WEATHER
STATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WINDS ARE DECREASING. THE DEPRESSION
WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN
DISSIPATE OVER LAND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS...MUD
SLIDES AND FLASH FLOODS...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 21.8N 98.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 22.5N 100.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Tropical Depression Bret Discussion Number 6


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on June 29, 2005



last light visible imagery indicated that the low-level circulation
of Bret is decoupling from the deep convection...with the
convection continuing west-northwestward over the higher terrain
leaving the low-level center behind. With this...Bret is losing
the characteristics of a tropical cyclone and this will be the last
advisory.
Heavy rains are still possible over the higher elevations and these
rains could still cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.
Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 30/0300z 22.3n 98.5w 25 kt...dissipating
12hr VT 30/1200z 23.0n 98.9w 20 kt...remnant low
24hr VT 01/0000z...dissipated

000
WTNT32 KNHC 300235
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

...BRET DISSIPATING WEST OF TAMPICO...BUT HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BRET IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 65 KM... WEST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE
CIRCULATION DISSIPATES. MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL...HOWEVER...IS
MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH BRET. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...22.3 N... 98.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Unoffial report
Tropical storm Bret
Report one
6-29-2005
Revised on the 6-30-2005

A well defined surface trough/tropical wave moved into central America on the 26 into 27h of June. This area slowly moved across land moving northwestward into the southeastern "BOC" around 18.5/92.5. Late midday the 27th. Surface obs shown that it was not quite closed at the surface at the time. But it had winds of nearly 15 mph/gust to 20 to 25 mph. with rain/thunderstorms over a large area. It kept moving northwestward/west-northwestward through the afternoon of the 28th of June.

Around 8pm pst/11pm est... It started to show good signs of convection forming around it. A buoy to the north about 120 miles was showing east-northeast to northeast wind. In fact for a short time when it moved just to the south of that buoy winds where gusting at 23 to 25 mph..A land ob southeast of the cirulation was showing a southeastward wind. A few others to the west-southwest was showing a north wind. This area kepted moving at a quick clip to the west-northwest, into the morning of the 28th. While gaining oreganizion. By 2am pst/5am est the obs southwest of the system shown a west wind. The cirualtion was clearly becoming better defined. The system started to develop more convection over the LLC. By early that morning. With even a raibanding classic pattern around a Cdo had formed by 11am est/8am pst. In which case the system was getting 2.0/2.0 t numbers out of sab.

The system by later on the 28th shown that it had developed a pin hole like eye on visible. In which the recon later that evening found...Which it was 3 nmi an size. The wind over the southwest side was at 46 knots or around 52 mph at 850 millibars=around 40 to 45 mph surface. The pressure grad found was amazing with 1002 millibars an or around the center. While at the same time only a hundred or so miles outside of there it was all the way to 1012 millibars.

The system started to slow down as the evening past. From 10 to then 7 by the first Advisorie was issued from the nhc at 6pm est. The recon found that this system was a good part stronger then reported back to the nhc that it was a tropical storm by 7pm. Bret had formed at this time(Offically). The system slowed below 5 mph as it turned more to the northwest while moving up the coast to around 20 north. The system had a few up or downs with convections but a new area of convection/intense convection formed later tueday night into wednesday. The system interbands where moving into Mexico as of 11pm pst/1pm est.

Based on the buoy/obs this system was likely a depression by early on Tuesday....Maybe as early as 8am est/5am pst. When the surface reports/buoys shown a closed LLC. With banding forming. Then it was likely a tropical storm about 6 hours before the upgrade around 10am pst/1pm pst. This system was also much more intense/more oreganized. Based on this data it likely topped out by arund 3 to 4pm est. Maybe as high as 50 mph.

Tropical storm Bret, moved on shore earlier the morning of the 29. The system then turned to the north-northwest. A ULL to the west was most likey the steering current for that. The system still had enough oreganizion to stay at or around tropical depression for the next 12 hours. Landfall was near or just to the south of Tuxpan. Reports of heavy rainfall where reported...

Only one recon flight was made into the cyclone. With the fact that this was a tight/small system. In the fact that it weaken as the only recon was checking the northern quads. The max winds are a guesting game.


Matthew

thanks for the info. bret had a short but interesting life

Yes he was rainstorm... :silly: