TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
AT THIS TIME...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA


The models been hinting at development. In the enviroment is becoming favable.

It shows a weak surface low at around 13 north/77 west. It is very weak. In the convection is not very oreganized. But it looks interesting. The quickscat missed the western side.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataim...oms/WMBds20.png

W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N79W NNE TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS CONTINUES TO BE A
POWERFUL WAVE WITH 25 KT WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND
A SURFACE REFLECTION AS NOTED BY THE LATEST QUIKSCAT. THE WAVE
IS MOVING BENEATH A MID/UPPER RIDGE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
CONVECTION TO REFORM NEAR THE WAVE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION THE WAVE IS APPROACHING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN
THE ITCZ A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN INDICATE THAT THERE IS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES WITH S TO SW
WINDS AT 700 MB IN THE SRN CARIBBEAN AND UP TO 50 KT SE WINDS
OBSERVED IN AT KINGSTON. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND THE PRE-EXISTING DISTURBANCE. THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER YUCATAN BY MON SPREADING HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE AREA.

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on July 2, 2005


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Satellite imagery and upper-air data from the western Caribbean Sea
indicate that a large area of disturbed weather associated with a
tropical wave is gradually becoming better organized between
Honduras and the Cayman Islands. Upper-level winds are expected to
be favorable for some development during the next day or two as the
system moves toward the west-northwest. Heavy rains are expected to
continue today over portions of the northwestern Caribbean Sea
primarily over Jamaica..eastern Cuba and the Cayman Islands.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Sunday.
Forecaster Avila
$$

The buoy to the southeast of the center has turned out of the south-southwest. While the buoy to the northwest of the center is north. This means that there is a broad LLC at the surface. Looking at visible the center is arond 17.5 north/83 west moving west-northwestward. The last few frames show that there is a increase an convection/Oreganizion.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962005) ON 20050702 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050702 1800 050703 0600 050703 1800 050704 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.2N 82.5W 19.0N 84.5W 20.0N 86.8W 21.2N 89.2W
BAMM 18.2N 82.5W 19.1N 84.6W 20.2N 86.9W 21.6N 89.4W
A98E 18.2N 82.5W 19.1N 83.7W 20.0N 85.1W 20.7N 86.6W
LBAR 18.2N 82.5W 19.1N 84.1W 20.5N 86.1W 22.2N 88.2W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 43KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 43KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050704 1800 050705 1800 050706 1800 050707 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.8N 91.5W 25.5N 94.7W 27.4N 96.1W 29.6N 96.4W
BAMM 23.3N 91.7W 26.1N 95.1W 27.9N 96.9W 29.2N 98.0W
A98E 21.4N 88.3W 21.7N 91.5W 22.3N 94.7W 23.9N 97.0W
LBAR 24.2N 89.9W 28.1N 90.8W 30.8N 87.4W 32.4N 80.4W
SHIP 54KTS 59KTS 60KTS 61KTS
DSHP 44KTS 49KTS 50KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.2N LONCUR = 82.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 16.8N LONM12 = 81.3W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 79.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS CONTINUING
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...JAMAICA
...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.9 82.7 310./ 8.0
6 18.2 83.6 290./ 9.4
12 18.4 84.8 279./11.5
18 18.9 86.0 290./12.3
24 19.5 87.3 297./13.4
30 19.7 88.1 284./ 8.3
36 20.2 89.4 292./13.7
42 20.8 90.6 295./11.7
48 21.5 90.9 334./ 7.6
54 22.1 91.6 312./ 9.1
60 23.3 92.4 325./13.7
66 24.6 93.2 331./15.5
72 26.0 93.4 352./13.5
78 26.9 93.8 338./10.2
84 28.4 93.7 2./15.0
90 29.6 93.2 24./12.1
96 30.9 92.3 34./15.2
102 31.6 91.6 41./ 9.6
108 32.3 91.2 34./ 7.2
114 32.7 90.6 55./ 6.6
120 32.8 89.3 84./11.1
126 32.9 88.8 81./ 4.4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962005) ON 20050703 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050703 0000 050703 1200 050704 0000 050704 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.8N 84.9W 18.6N 86.6W 19.7N 88.5W 21.1N 90.6W
BAMM 17.8N 84.9W 18.6N 86.6W 19.7N 88.5W 21.0N 90.5W
A98E 17.8N 84.9W 18.6N 87.0W 19.7N 88.9W 21.5N 90.6W
LBAR 17.8N 84.9W 18.7N 86.9W 20.1N 89.0W 21.8N 91.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 30KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050705 0000 050706 0000 050707 0000 050708 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.9N 92.5W 25.8N 95.2W 28.0N 96.3W 30.2N 95.5W
BAMM 22.6N 92.4W 25.2N 95.8W 27.4N 98.2W 29.0N 99.9W
A98E 23.9N 92.4W 27.6N 95.9W 30.6N 96.5W 33.8N 90.3W
LBAR 23.6N 92.6W 27.6N 94.3W 30.4N 92.1W 31.7N 86.8W
SHIP 54KTS 66KTS 68KTS 68KTS
DSHP 39KTS 50KTS 36KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 84.9W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 82.8W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 16.2N LONM24 = 80.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

looks like possible development

ABNT20 KNHC 030229
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BETWEEN 100 TO 200
MILES EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. SQUALLS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

There is a pretty solid development in the organization of this storm. What seems to lack for future strength is the compactness of what is ocurring at the lower levels. The convection is massive, yet the depth of the system seems to be on the surface alone. The shear at the top appears to be stronger than the ability of this storm to enmass a circular form and thus I feel it will blow apart...

The Nam was the second model to hint at this system. That was over 3 days ago. The 06z forecasts it to develop into a tropical cyclone heading for central Texas later the 4th into the 5th. (48-66 hours)

It takes the system across the Yactan west-northwestward. Then turns it northwest afterwards. This model is taking this system a little more seriously.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...6048066_m.shtml

We look at the 850 millibar heights. Which shows this system developing to. A northwest track is shown.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...0048066_m.shtml

The nam shows that this system has a LLC at 00 hour. Then moving it westward into the Yactan. While it makes it a little stronger.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...0000018_m.shtml

At 24 hours it is remerging back into the Gulf of Mexico. Then it takes its time to get oreganized...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...0024042_m.shtml


500 millibars
48 hours the vort max is off texas...This vort max moves northward afterwards. Showing that the model wents to move it more northward then the other levels.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...0048066_m.shtml


200 millibars shows that it forms a strong upper level high over it...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...0048066_m.shtml

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030911
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR LONGITUDE 86W. THIS SYSTEM
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. SQUALLS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on July 3, 2005


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

The area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
has continued to become better organized this morning...and surface
observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure has formed
about 150 miles east of Chetumal Mexico. This system is moving
west-northwestward near 10 mph and conditions appear to be
favorable for further development. A tropical depression could
form later today before the system moves over the Yucatan
Peninsula...and an Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the area this afternoon. Interests in
and near the northwestern Caribbean Sea...the Yucatan Peninsula...
and the southern Gulf of Mexico...should closely monitor the
progress of this system. Locally heavy rainfall with squalls
producing strong gusty winds will be possible with some of the
stronger thunderstorms

03/1745 UTC 19.6N 85.1W T1.0/1.0 96 -- Atlantic Ocean

2:30 P.M. EDT 7/3/2005 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

This is an independent product

Satellite imagery and a ship report indicates that the tropical wave may be developing into a tropical depression at the present time. A recon aircraft will investigate the system in about an hour to make the final determination regarding the status of this feature.

This feature is likely to produce gusty winds, and flooding rainfall of up to 10 inches for the Yucatan Beninsula and northern Belize. These effects will occur even if there is no tropical cyclone development.

Residents of the western Gulf of Mexico, particularly Texas and NE Mexico need to monitor the progress of this developing system very carefully as this could impact the area later this week as a significant tropical cyclone.

Forecaster: Ortt

To all members please post Advisories/Info on this system. While I'm gone for the next few days. It would be very helpful. Thank you.

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962005) ON 20050703 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050703 1800 050704 0600 050704 1800 050705 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 86.3W 19.6N 88.4W 20.6N 90.7W 21.6N 93.0W
BAMM 18.7N 86.3W 19.6N 88.3W 20.6N 90.4W 21.6N 92.6W
A98E 18.7N 86.3W 19.2N 87.6W 20.2N 89.1W 21.7N 90.8W
LBAR 18.7N 86.3W 19.6N 87.9W 21.0N 89.9W 22.6N 91.9W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 46KTS 53KTS
DSHP 30KTS 30KTS 32KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050705 1800 050706 1800 050707 1800 050708 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.6N 95.0W 23.9N 98.5W 24.7N 101.3W 24.9N 103.5W
BAMM 22.6N 94.6W 24.0N 98.1W 24.7N 101.5W 25.0N 104.8W
A98E 23.2N 92.8W 26.2N 96.3W 28.2N 98.0W 30.7N 96.0W
LBAR 24.3N 93.6W 27.5N 95.0W 29.7N 93.0W 31.2N 89.4W
SHIP 59KTS 66KTS 61KTS 52KTS
DSHP 45KTS 51KTS 30KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.7N LONCUR = 86.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 18.3N LONM12 = 85.0W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 17.6N LONM24 = 83.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

WTNT23 KNHC 032038
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032005
2100Z SUN JUL 03 2005

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 87.1W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 87.1W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 86.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 88.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 89.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.9N 91.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.7N 92.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 27.0N 95.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 30.5N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 33.0N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 87.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

It's definitely something to watch very closely for the western Gulf coast. Houston and Beaumont, TX could seriously benefit from this system if it hits. It could be a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane overtime, something which will watch very closely. Midweek, Wednesday into Thursday is the time of reckoning potentially for southeastern Texas.

Jim

Tropical depression #3 is getting better organized tonight as it nears the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Better organization over the northwest Caribbean could mean tropical storm force winds for the east coast of the Yucatan on Monday July 4th. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the eastern coast of the Yucatan. The statement is below with the latest 11 PM EDT advisory fom the national hurricane center.

By midweek, watch southeast Texas for a possible hurricane landfall, that remains a good possibility by later Wednesday or into early Thursday as winds aloft are expected to favor strengthening over the Gulf Of Mexico this week. More updates on this to follow.



000
WTNT33 KNHC 040241
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT NEARS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL...
INCLUDING THE BANCO CHINCORRO ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES... 95 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 115
MILES... 190 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL.
SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER LAND ON
MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...18.9 N... 87.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

Looking at the convective trends on satellite, there is definite suggestions that TD#3 is in fact a tropical storm as I talk right now. The initial intensity remains at 30 knots. But it's still not impossible to see 35-40 knots by later tonite as this things strengthens to a tropical storm prior to landfall over the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

By later Tuesday, restrengthening is likely over the west central Gulf and this system could easily become a strong tropical storm if not a hurricane by Wednesday as it approaches the southeast Texas coast. The only inhibiting factor could be drier air aloft within the westerlies, which could inhibit explosive development with this system. However a period of significant strengthening is a possibility with this system Tuesday into Wednesday as upper level winds will be favorable along with very warm sea surface temperatures.

Will watch thic over the next few days. But folks along the texas and Louisiana coast could prepare now for a potential hit.

Jim

Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 3

Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on July 04, 2005

...Tropical Depression Three moving northwestward across the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico...producing heavy rains...


at 4 am CDT...0900z...the government of Mexico has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
and the Banco chincorro islands.


Interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...the Yucatan Peninsula
...And the southern and western Gulf of Mexico should closely
monitor the progress of this system.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 4 am CDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Depression Three was
located near latitude 19.6 north... longitude 88.1 west or about
100 miles... 165 km...southwest of Cozumel Mexico. This is also
about 155 miles... 250 km...southeast of Progreso Mexico.


The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph
...15 km/hr. This general motion is expected to continue with an
increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours. This motion
should bring the center of the depression across the Yucatan
Peninsula today...and into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight or
Tuesday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while the center
remains over land.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.


Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible over the central and
northern Yucatan Peninsula...and extreme western Cuba.


Repeating the 4 am CDT position...19.6 N... 88.1 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 10 am CDT.


Forecaster Beven

000
WTNT33 KNHC 042036
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

...DEPRESSION TRYING TO REFORM TO THE NORTH OF YUCATAN...TROPICAL
STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE
PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES... 700 KM... SOUTH OF THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
TROPICAL STORM DURING NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...22.8 N... 89.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

could develop quickly

Posted: Mon Jul 04, 2005 11:50 pm

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical Depression Three Intermediate Advisory Number 5a

Statement as of 7:00 PM CDT on July 04, 2005

...Tropical Depression Three becoming better organized over
the south-central Gulf of Mexico...

a tropical storm watch is in effect for the Louisiana coast from the
mouth of the Mississippi River to Sabine Pass. A tropical storm
watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area...generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning may be required for portions of the watch
area by early Tuesday morning.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 7 PM CDT...0000z...the broad center of Tropical Depression Three
was estimated near latitude 23.3 north...longitude 89.5 west or
about 395 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph
...And this general motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...with higher gusts... and
the depression could strengthen into a tropical storm later tonight
or Tuesday. During the past few hours...SHIPS and NOAA buoys
located north and northeast of the center have reported sustained
winds between 33 to 38 mph...or just below tropical storm force.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Repeating the 7 PM CDT position...23.3 N... 89.5 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 10 PM CDT.

Forecaster Stewart

WTNT23 KNHC 050225
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032005
0300Z TUE JUL 05 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE PASS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH
AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 89.7W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 89.7W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 89.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.6N 90.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.6N 90.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 29.4N 91.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 31.0N 90.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.5N 89.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 33.5N 88.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 34.5N 86.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 89.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 7

Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on July 05, 2005

...Air Force plane finds Tropical Storm Cindy in the Gulf of
Mexico...


at 4 am CDT...0900 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued
for the northern Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City Louisiana to
Pascagoula Mississippi including the city of New Orleans and Lake
Pontchartrain...and a tropical storm watch has been issued
from east of Pascagoula to Destin Florida. The tropical storm
watch west of Intracoastal City has been discontinued.


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the
tropical depression has become tropical Cindy...the third tropical
storm of the 2005 hurricane season. At 4 am CDT...0900z...the center
of the tropical storm was located near latitude 25.6 north...
longitude 90.4 west or about 255 miles...south-southwest of
the mouth of the Mississippi River.


Cindy is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph. A gradual
turn to the north is expected later today. This track would bring
Cindy near the Louisiana coast Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.


Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph...with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles to the
north and east of the center.


Latest minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 1002 mb...29.59 inches.

Total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are possible over the
central Gulf Coast..with isolated maximum amounts to 10 inches.

Repeating the 4 am CDT position...25.6 N... 90.4 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1002 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 7 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 am
CDT.


Forecaster Avila

000
WTNT33 KNHC 051144
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CINDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

...CINDY HEADING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF PASCAGOULA TO DESTIN
FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

T 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK
WOULD BRING CINDY NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST LATE NIGHT OR EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN SQUALLS...TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...26.4 N... 90.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

Forecast/NHC..

000
WTNT23 KNHC 050845
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032005
0900Z TUE JUL 05 2005

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO
PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM EAST OF PASCAGOULA TO DESTIN FLORIDA. THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 90.4W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 90.4W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 90.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 27.3N 90.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.3N 90.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 31.0N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 32.5N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 34.9N 85.4W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 37.2N 82.7W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 40.1N 78.4W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 90.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

FORECASTER AVILA

Heavy Weather continues to develop on the Eastern side of Cindy, as she makes her Northward Trek towards Louisianna. As the wrapping ocurrs on the Eastward side of these systems, Mobile, Gulfport and Pensacola are on the hard side, once again, from a Tropical System. High winds and heavy surf are battering the Northern Gulf Coast once again as they continue to recover from the onslaught of last years "Ivan the Terrible"!!

With our focus being on the current conditions at hand and the issues of last years repairs placed on the sidelines, I believe that we are in a protective mode for the investments we have made over the last 10 months in reparations.

Sure seems like it is all still pretty fresh in our lives and minds about how long it takes to recover from these massive systems...

WTNT33 KNHC 052029
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CINDY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

...HEAVY RAINS AND SQUALLS SPREADING ONSHORE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST AS CINDY APPROACHES...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES... 155 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COAST LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN STRENGTH ARE FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...28.2 N... 90.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS IN CINDY ARE NEAR 70 MPH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.


It's quite possible we could see at least minimal hurricane force winds prior to landfall on the Louisiana/Mississppi coast near the Mississippi Delta region.

Jim

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CINDY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

...HEAVY RAINS AND SQUALLS SPREADING ONSHORE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST AS CINDY APPROACHES...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES... 155 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COAST LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN STRENGTH ARE FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...28.2 N... 90.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$
NNNN

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2005

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WERE ABLE TO CLOSE OFF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN COMPARISON TO EARLIER TODAY...THERE IS
ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO WARRANT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STATUS AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE DECREASE IN CONVECTION
AND THE EXPECTATION OF THE CYCLONE MOVING INLAND OVER YUCATAN
TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER
REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER ON MONDAY. INTERESTINGLY...GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST LITTLE OR NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS IT OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. NOTWITHSTANDING...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
OVER THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH
THE SHIPS/GFS GUIDANCE INDICATING VERY WEAK SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE AND IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS.

INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 285/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD PUSH THE
DEPRESSION WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY AND THEN A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE RIGHT...INTO A WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF...IS
FORECAST. THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL TRACK.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 18.4N 87.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 19.0N 88.1W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 04/1800Z 20.2N 89.9W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 05/0600Z 21.9N 91.4W 35 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 23.7N 92.9W 40 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 27.0N 95.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 30.5N 95.0W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 08/1800Z 33.0N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2005

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER INDICATED BY THE LAST RECON REPORT...
WHICH ALSO INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB -- A DROP OF 2 MB
IN 2.5 HOURS. RADAR REPORTS FROM THE RECON AIRCRAFT ALSO INDICATED
SIGNIFICANT BANDING HAD DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE
CENTER. GIVEN THE SHARP INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION...
THE CYCLONE COULD EASILY BE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE
INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 30 KT...DESPITE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF ONLY 25 KT..MAINLY TO SEE IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
TREND CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 3 TO 6 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/08. THE DEPRESSION HAS MADE A SLIGHT
JOG TO THE RIGHT...WHICH MAY BE DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE
DEEP CONVECTION AND/OR SOME WEAK BINARY INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED TO THE NORTH OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL AGREE THAT THE LATTER FEATURE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT STEERING FACTOR AS IT WEAKENS AND
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE
GFDL ALSO AGREE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LYING EAST-WEST ALONG
28N LATITUDE FROM FLORIDA ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY
EASTWARD...BUT IN ITS WAKE LEAVE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ALONG 94-95W LONGITUDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE FOR THE CYCLONE TO TAKE UNTIL IT
NEARS THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA COAST AND IS TURNED SHARPLY NORTHEAST OR
EVEN EASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...AND TO THE LEFT OF THE 18Z GFDL MODEL RUN.

LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER THE
YUCATAN THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE COMBINATION OF WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR OF LESS THAN 8 KT AND WARM SSTS NEAR 29C SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MODERATE INTENSIFICATION. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN ACTUALLY FAVORS MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED
BY THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH
BY 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE INHIBITING FACTOR...
WHICH IS DRY MID-LEVEL AIR OF 30-40 PERCENT HUMIDITY POSSIBLY
GETTING GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST AFTER 36-48
HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 18.9N 87.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 19.7N 88.6W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 05/0000Z 21.1N 90.1W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 05/1200Z 22.9N 91.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 25.0N 93.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 28.5N 94.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 31.0N 93.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 09/0000Z 33.0N 91.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON JUL 04 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS SHOWING INTERESTING STRUCTURAL
DEVELOPMENTS THIS MORNING. A STRONG AND PERSISTENT AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHICH SUGGESTS THE INNER CORE IS
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE OVERALL
CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH...WITH A SECOND
VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF YUCATAN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM
TAFB AND 25 KT FROM AFWA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30
KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/8. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A COMPLEX
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IN
RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN. THE MODELS THAT FORECAST AN ORGANIZED
TROPICAL CYCLONE...INCLUDING THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN...
INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48 HR
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN TOWARD THE LOUISIANA OR UPPER TEXAS
COASTS BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST.
AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE DEPRESSION CIRCULATION BECOMES
ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED AS INDICATED BY THE GFS...UKMET...AND
THE BAM MODELS. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS OR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THE SCENARIO FOR A STRONGER
CYCLONE...CALLING FOR THE NORTHWARD TURN. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED
PRIMARILY ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC. NONE OF THE LARGE
SCALE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH ALL OF
THEM SHOW FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
THE REASON FOR THIS IS NOT CLEAR...BUT IT MAY BE THAT THE MODELS
ARE RESPONDING TO DRY AIR CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...OR TO THE DISTORTION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BY THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE CYCLONE TO REACH 50 KT
IN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL CALLS FOR IT TO BECOME A HURRICANE JUST
BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO THAT
THE CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FORECASTS
THE SYSTEM TO REACH 55 KT BEFORE LANDFALL AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE GFDL AND SHIPS. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT LITTLE OR NO
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND UKMET.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 19.6N 88.1W 30 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 04/1800Z 20.5N 89.1W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 05/0600Z 22.4N 90.7W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 05/1800Z 24.1N 92.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 26.2N 93.2W 45 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 29.0N 93.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 31.5N 92.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 09/0600Z 33.0N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON JUL 04 2005

THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME QUITE DISORGANIZED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE AMBIGUOUS ABOUT THE LOCATION
OF A CENTER...AND SOUNDING DATA FROM MERIDA SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM
IS TILTED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE
POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. MY ADVISORY POSITION AND MOTION
ARE HEAVILY WEIGHTED BY CONTINUITY...AND THERE IS LARGE UNCERTAINTY
IN THESE VALUES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW CENTER WILL REFORM NEAR
THE NORTH COAST OF THE PENINSULA. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM WHEN IT MOVES OFF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INSIST THAT NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY. HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES AND MOVES
INTO THE GULF...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE HOSTILE
FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR FLORIDA.
ALTHOUGH THE STEERING REGIME DOES NOT LOOK TOO
COMPLICATED...DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERGENT...RANGING
FROM TRACKS TOWARD NORTHEAST MEXICO TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THESE VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 20.7N 89.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 21.9N 90.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 23.6N 91.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 25.7N 93.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 27.5N 93.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 30.5N 93.5W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 08/1200Z 32.0N 92.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 09/1200Z 33.0N 89.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING