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WTNT24 KNHC 050228
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005
0300Z TUE JUL 05 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 63.1W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 63.1W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 62.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.3N 65.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.7N 68.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.3N 71.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 55NE 45SE 0SW 55NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.8N 74.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.9N 78.5W...NEAR SOUTH COAST CUBA
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 65SE 40SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 23.5N 81.0W...NEAR NORTH COAST CUBA
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 26.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 63.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 2

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 05, 2005

...Tropical depression becoming better organized...nearing tropical
storm strength...


a tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the southern
coast of Hispaniola later today. Interests in the central and
western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Depression Four was
located near latitude 12.6 north...longitude 64.4 west or about
415 miles... 670 km...south-southeast of San Juan Puerto Rico.


The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph ...28
km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue during the next
24hours.


Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm later today.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.


Repeating the 5 am EDT position...12.6 N... 64.4 W. Movement
toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am EDT.


Forecaster Avila

It looks like #4 is going to be a storm to watch for Floridians at the end of this week..

Some models are showing a turn up the Western Coast of Florida,, and others make it just a bit further to the West through Cuba.. Whether it makes it over the Mountains or takes a more West path may determine #4's strength as it moves into the GOM.

Needless to say, whichever path this one takes, I am on the Eastern side of the system and I plan for quite a bit of wind and rain as we experienced with Arlene...

We are keeping an Eye on this Puppy as This might be the most active beginning to our Hurricane Season in a very long time.. ;)

It looks like Td#4 is going to quite a weather maker as it approaches the Florida Straights... :rolleyes:

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. JULY 5 IS THE EARLIEST DATE ON
RECORD FOR 4 NAMED STORMS TO HAVE FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. Now that's stat of the day ladies and gentlemen.



000
WTNT33 KNHC 051434
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CINDY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

...CINDY CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
COAST...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED A LITTLE EASTWARD...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. ALSO AT 10 AM
CDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA IS DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
IS IN EFFECT EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT
165 MILES... 265 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...27.0 N... 90.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$



000
WTNT34 KNHC 051439
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

...CARIBBEAN DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DENNIS...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD AND THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI
FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. JULY 5 IS THE EARLIEST DATE ON
RECORD FOR 4 NAMED STORMS TO HAVE FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST OR ABOUT
355 MILES... 570 KM... SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...13.3 N... 66.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

According to NHC, this is the first time we've had 4 named storms this early in the season on record. Looks like we're off to an active start.

Conditions are going to rapidly go down hill in the western and northwestern Caribbean over the next several days. Several more watches and warnings have been issued in this package and Dennis is showing better organization in recent hours as well.


000
WTNT34 KNHC 052045
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

...DENNIS ORGANIZING AND MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS CHANGED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH.

ALSO AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

ALSO AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT
325 MILES... 525 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND
ABOUT 405 MILES... 650 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH
...32 KM/HR ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...14.2 N... 68.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$

Yup indeed, and the active streak continues further east too with the ITCZ or inter tropical convergence zone cranking up in a hurry.

Jim

CZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2005

SATELLITE INFORMATION AND SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THE STRONG TROPICAL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 25 KT AND AN EARLIER 31-KT WIND
REPORT FROM ST. LUCIA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/15. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A DEEP-LAYERED EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN...AND THIS
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY GAIN LATITUDE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST FORECAST WHEN THE CENTER NEARS THE SOUTH COAST OF
CUBA. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY CONVERGENT ON THIS GENERAL
TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT THEN THEY DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
THAT WITH THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND THE BAM MODELS
BRINGING THE CYCLONE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE UKMET...GFS...AND
GFDL MOEELS TAKING THE STORM OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS IN
96 HOURS OR SO.

WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN LOOKS QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ALMOST TOO LARGE
FOR SUCH A SMALL CIRCULATION TO INTENSIFY VERY QUICKLY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS
...WHICH BRING THE INTENSITY UP TO ABOUT 70 KT IN 72 HOURS AND 80
KT IN 96 AND 120 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 12.5N 63.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 13.3N 65.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 14.7N 68.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 16.3N 71.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 17.8N 74.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 78.5W 65 KT...NEAR SOUTH COAST CUBA

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER THE
CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS.
THERE IS NO SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE SO A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
IS INDICATED...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL
MODELS.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OF 280 DEGREES
AT 15 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 3 DAYS..AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN
END OF THE RIDGE. A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD THEN BEGIN.
THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM OVER CUBA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT...IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 12.6N 64.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 13.2N 66.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 14.5N 69.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 16.5N 72.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 18.0N 75.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 20.5N 79.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 82.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 10/0600Z 25.0N 84.0W 70 KT

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND...BASED ON A DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION OF T2.5 FROM TAFB...THE CYCLONE IS BEING NAMED.
THIS IS THE EARLIEST DATE EVER TO HAVE FOUR NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONES
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THE STORM WILL BE IN A LOW-SHEAR AND HIGH
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
MAY BE CONSERVATIVE AT THE LONGER RANGE...BUT THERE IS LITTLE IF
ANY SKILL IN INTENSITY CHANGE PREDICTION AT DAYS 4-5.

DENNIS IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF WEST NEAR 16 KT AS A RESULT OF A
DEEP EASTERLY STEERING FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A LITTLE DECELERATION IS
PREDICTED. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BECAUSE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN LONGER-RANGE TRACK PREDICTIONS...IT IS TOO EARLY TO
SPECULATE ON WHAT PORTIONS OF THE U.S. MIGHT BE THREATENED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF HISPANIOLA
AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 13.3N 66.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 14.4N 68.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 15.9N 71.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 17.4N 74.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 18.9N 76.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 81.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 23.5N 83.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 26.0N 86.0W 75 KT

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

DENNIS IS STEADILY BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
AT 18Z WERE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THIS WILL BE
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. CONVECTION HAD BEEN A BIT ON THE SPOTTY
SIDE EARLIER TODAY...BUT IT HAS SINCE BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED NEAR
THE ESTIMATED CENTER...SO DENNIS SEEMS POISED TO INTENSIFY THIS
EVENING. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AHEAD OF THE STORM IS PLENTY WARM...AND
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHIPS BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 92 KT...AND GFDL
FORECASTS 76 KT...IN 72 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM CROSSES CUBA. DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH INTENSITY FORECASTING...INCLUDING IN THIS
CASE HOW DENNIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE LARGER ISLANDS OF HISPANIOLA
AND CUBA...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN
SHIPS AND GFDL BUT STILL MAKES DENNIS A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS.

DENNIS IS MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY...WITH INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT
290/17. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL
MOTION CONTINUING FOR ABOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM BEING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. BEYOND THAT TIME...A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP...AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHARPENS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ALONG BUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

BASED ON THE FORECAST...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND JAMAICA.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 14.2N 68.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 15.4N 70.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 17.0N 73.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 18.4N 75.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 19.9N 78.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 22.0N 82.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.0N 84.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 26.5N 86.5W 80 KT

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

...DENNIS ORGANIZING AND MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS CHANGED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH.

ALSO AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

ALSO AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT
325 MILES... 525 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND
ABOUT 405 MILES... 650 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH
...32 KM/HR ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...14.2 N... 68.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

7 P.M. CDT 7/5/2005 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS UPDATE #5

This is an independent product

Tropical Storm Dennis continues to become better organized and is likely to reach hurricane strength within the next 36-48 hours.

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane Watch for the south coast of Haiti and for Jamaica. As always, these will only be recommendations. Please refer to the Official Alerts Page or local emergency management officials for the official watches and warnings.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Dennis is located near 14.5N and 68.7W. This places the center about 375 miles SSE of Port Au Prince, Haiti. The motion is to the WNW near 19 m.p.h. This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, bringing the storm in the vicinity of Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba later this week.

Maximum winds have increased to near 45 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 1001mb. Tropical Storm Dennis is in a very favorable environment for intensification and is expected to become a hurricane within the next 48 hours.

Next Update: 11 P.M.

Forecaster: Cangialosi

000
WTNT34 KNHC 052350
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

...DENNIS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFEFCT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. ALSO...THE GOVERNMENT OF
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WILL LIKELY ISSUE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST OR ABOUT
385 MILES... 625 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...14.3 N... 68.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

0300 UTC 7/6/2005 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS FORECAST #3

This is an independent product

An afternoon IFEX flight from HRD found 42KT at 650mb. There is no standard reduction factor for this level, though from extrapolation from the 700mb level, 95 percent would seem appropriate. Since this finding, the satellite appearance has improved significantly. Therefore, 45KT will be the initial intensity.

Track reasoning remains unchanged. The ridge is expected to hold and guidance is in good agreement for a WNW track through about 48-72 hours followed by a NW track. All guidance takes Dennis south of mainland south Florida, including the MM5, though a threat to the Keys is very possible, along with Cuba. After 72 hours, there are some indications from guidance that the ridge is going to intensify, which would force Dennis on a path more to the west. The forecast is slightly right initially due to the northward consolidation of the center, then left at the longer time periods. Please remember that forecasts beyond 72 hours are subject to large error.

There is nothing stopping Dennis from becoming a major hurricane. SHIPS brings Dennis to 105KT before Cuban landfall. I am a tad bit more conservative and go with 100KT. 100KT is retained at the longer time periods as SHIPS shows some weakening, though this is probably due to the GFS storm not being where the NHC forecast position is, which is used as the storm track for SHIPS and the GFS shear is the shear used for SHIPS. Thus, Dennis is likely in its own outflow. Most global guidance suggests intensification over the GOM. However, since it is a long time out, I will keep the storm at 100KT. 100KT should be more than enough to get everyones attention.

Initial (0000 UTC): 14.3N 68.5W 45KT
12 Hour: 15.6N 71.1W 60KT
24 Hour: 16.9N 73.7W 70KT
36 Hour: 18.2N 76.3W 80KT (near Jamaica)
48 Hour: 19.5N 78.4W 85KT
72 Hour: 22.6N 81.8W 100KT (inland, Cuba)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 25.2N 84.6W 100KT (inland)
120 Hour: 27.6N 88.3W 100KT (GOM)

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005
0300Z WED JUL 06 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 69.2W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 69.2W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 68.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.8N 71.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.4N 74.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.8N 76.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 55SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.1N 78.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 30SW 55NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.4N 82.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 85SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 24.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 27.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 69.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

WTNT34 KNHC 060241
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

...DENNIS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...NEW HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED...

AT 11 PM EDT...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CUBA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST OR ABOUT
345 MILES... 555 KM... SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
555 MILES... 895 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...14.6 N... 69.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS INTENSIFIED
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A NOAA RECON REPORT AT 650 MB INDICATED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 45 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 05/2114Z
AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. USING ABOUT 95 PERCENT OF THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND A T3.0/45 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45
KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE IN ALL QUADRANTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/15. DENNIS HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD
SPEED SOMEWHAT...POSSIBLY DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS AND TAKES
DENNIS BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA AND THEN BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA THROUGH 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT LIES
EAST-WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. HOWEVER...AFTER
THAT...THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MURKY. ALL OF THE MODELS
WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY DAYS 4 AND 5...BEFORE LIFTING OUT SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. SINCE DENNIS IS A LARGER THAN AVERAGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN
DAYS 3-5...THE LARGE OUTER CIRCULATION COULD ERODE THE RIDGE EVEN
MORE...RESULTING IN WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS THAN THE 5-8 KT THAT
THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN..OR
RIGHT...SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A VERY LOW SHEAR AND HIGH SST
ENVIRONMENT..WHICH UNFORTUNATELY ARE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR PRODUCING
INTENSE HURRICANES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT IS LESS THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL
INTENSITY MODELS...WHICH BRING DENNIS TO 108 KT IN 96 HOURS AND 113
KT IN 60 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 14.6N 69.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 15.8N 71.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 17.4N 74.0W 70 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 18.8N 76.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 20.1N 78.8W 90 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 22.4N 82.4W 100 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 24.5N 84.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 27.0N 86.5W 100 KT

2 A.M. EDT 7/6/2005 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS UPDATE #6

This is an independent product

Tropical Storm Dennis continues to intensify and is expected to become a hurricane today and eventually a major hurricane. All residents of the central and western Caribbean need to monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous storm very closely over the next several days.

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane Watch for the south coast of Haiti and for Jamaica. As always, these will only be recommendations. Please refer to the Official Alerts Page or local emergency management officials for the official watches and warnings.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Dennis is located near 14.8N and 69.7W. This places the center about 310 miles SSE of Port Au Prince, Haiti. The motion is to the WNW near 15 m.p.h. This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, bringing the storm in the vicinity of Haiti, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba later this week.

Maximum winds have increased to near 60 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 997mb. While there may be slight shear now, the environment is expected to be favorable. Dennis is expected to become a hurricane later today and a major hurricane before making landfall in Cuba.

Next Update: 8 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

000
WTNT34 KNHC 060544
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

...DENNIS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA....

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR EASTERN CUBA
FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

A HURRICANE WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CUBA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT
310 MILES... 500 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 495 MILES... 800 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...14.8 N... 69.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

WHXX01 KWBC 060639
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM DENNIS (AL042005) ON 20050706 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050706 0600 050706 1800 050707 0600 050707 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 69.7W 15.8N 72.1W 16.9N 74.5W 18.2N 76.8W
BAMM 14.7N 69.7W 16.0N 72.1W 17.3N 74.5W 18.8N 77.0W
A98E 14.7N 69.7W 15.8N 72.3W 16.9N 74.7W 18.2N 77.0W
LBAR 14.7N 69.7W 15.8N 72.1W 17.2N 74.8W 18.7N 77.5W
SHIP 50KTS 61KTS 72KTS 82KTS
DSHP 50KTS 61KTS 72KTS 82KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050708 0600 050709 0600 050710 0600 050711 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.4N 79.0W 21.8N 82.8W 24.6N 85.9W 28.6N 89.5W
BAMM 20.2N 79.5W 22.6N 83.7W 24.9N 86.9W 28.0N 89.8W
A98E 19.7N 79.2W 21.9N 83.5W 24.7N 86.3W 28.6N 88.1W
LBAR 20.1N 80.0W 23.4N 83.9W 26.4N 86.4W 29.5N 89.6W
SHIP 90KTS 103KTS 106KTS 100KTS
DSHP 90KTS 103KTS 102KTS 96KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.7N LONCUR = 69.7W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 67.2W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 64.0W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 25NM RD34NW = 75NM

Tropical Storm Dennis Advisory Number 6


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 06, 2005


...Dennis continues to strengthen in the central Caribbean Sea...

at 5 am EDT...0900z...the government of Jamaica has issued a
Hurricane Warning for Jamaica and the government of Haiti has
issued a Hurricane Warning for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti
from the Dominican Republic border.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands and for
eastern Cuba...for The Provinces of Las Tunas...Granma...Santiago
de Cuba...Guantanamo and Holguin.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Dennis was
located near latitude 15.1 north...longitude 70.3 west or about
275 miles... 445 km...south-southeast of Port au Prince Haiti
and about 475 miles... 765 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Dennis is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph...26
km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue today. On this
track...Dennis will be near Jamaica early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to are near 65 mph...100
km/hr...with higher gusts. Dennis could become a hurricane later
today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles ...140 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb...29.35 inches.
Dennis is expected to produce storm total rain accumulations of 4 to
6 inches over much of Hispaniola with isolated maximum amounts of
10 inches possible over mountainous terrain. These rains could
cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Repeating the 5 am EDT position...15.1 N... 70.3 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 65
mph. Minimum central pressure... 994 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am
EDT.

Forecaster Avila

Tropical Storm Dennis Forecast/Advisory Number 6


Statement as of 09:00Z on July 06, 2005



at 5 am EDT...0900z...the government of Jamaica has issued a
Hurricane Warning for Jamaica and the government of Haiti has
issued a Hurricane Warning for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti
from the Dominican Republic border.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands and for
eastern Cuba...for The Provinces of Las Tunas...Granma...Santiago
de Cuba...Guantanamo and Holguin.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of this system.

Tropical storm center located near 15.1n 70.3w at 06/0900z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 14 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 994 mb
Max sustained winds 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.
50 kt....... 25ne 25se 0sw 25nw.
34 kt....... 75ne 75se 25sw 75nw.
12 ft seas.. 75ne 75se 75sw 75nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 15.1n 70.3w at 06/0900z
at 06/0600z center was located near 14.7n 69.7w

forecast valid 06/1800z 16.1n 72.3w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 0sw 25nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 25sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 07/0600z 17.8n 75.0w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt... 35ne 30se 30sw 30nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 50sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 07/1800z 19.0n 77.5w
Max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.
64 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 08/0600z 20.5n 80.0w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...120ne 120se 100sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 09/0600z 23.0n 83.5w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
50 kt... 75ne 75se 75sw 75nw.
34 kt...130ne 130se 100sw 130nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 10/0600z 26.5n 85.5w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.

Outlook valid 11/0600z 30.0n 87.0w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 15.1n 70.3w

next advisory at 06/1500z

forecaster Avila

000
WTNT44 KNHC 060906
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
DENNIS. THERE ARE PLENTY OF CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS
AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND AFWA ARE 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. OBJECTIVE DVORAK
NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.0. SO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS LOW AHEAD OF DENNIS. IN
FACT...DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD AN AREA OF 20 KT BELOW AVERAGE WIND
SHEAR...AS INDICATED IN THE EXPERIMENTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
PRODUCT PROVIDED BY NOAA/CIRA. IN ADDITION...BOTH SHIPS AND THE
GFDL MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION. THE LATTER BRINGS DENNIS TO 121
KNOTS AND 935 MB...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL BUT
CALLS FOR A MAJOR DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14
KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS. THERAFTER...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED UP TO 72 HOURS...INCREASING
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE AND ONE
GROUP SHOWS A TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE OTHER AN
EARLIER TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 15.1N 70.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 16.1N 72.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 17.8N 75.0W 70 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 19.0N 77.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 20.5N 80.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 83.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 10/0600Z 26.5N 85.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 11/0600Z 30.0N 87.0W 100 KT

i think it may be a cat4!!

Shortly after 5am EDT Dennis reported 65mph sustained winds,,, Past reports of Four storms (though they didn't begin to name them for quite some time afterward), was in the early 1800's.... We have a wild season on our hands Ya'll!!!! :rolleyes:

I think that the aftermath of Cindy's Trough is going to pull Dennis more to the East of what the forecast is currently depicting... We'll have to wait and see... ;)

The wind of the NHC is that they are a little Gun shy after the Charley fiasco last year,,,

PREDICTION.... SPECULATION ON MY PART...

WATCH AS DENNIS MAKES HIS TURN AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CAYMEN ISLANDS.. ENE WINDS THAT ARE SLIDING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ARE LIGHT BUT ARE BEING INFLUENCED BY THE PASSING OF CINDY AND HER TAILING EFFECTS...

I'LL SIT BACK AND OBSERVE... :ph43r:

Currently over the dawning sky, I am seeing quite a few Native Fowl and Sea birds in formation, flying to the ESE.. just a bit unusual for this time of year... Usually, as well, I have a number of wild rabbits and squirrels that are playing in the grass and trees, and today I don't see any...

Any thoughts about wildlife perceptions?

If Dennis slows enough to miss the trough that is being designed by Cindy,, there is also a pulse of energy that is dropping down through the Panhandle of Texas that could direct Dennis and make steerage a bit more difficult to determine...

That which is lost upon our forecasters is absolute direction and intensity.. I wish they would spend more time outside,, observations of all aspects of our world were the key to predictions before we sat in our offices and homes, in years gone past.. My 8 year old kitty is even spending more time on the South Window sill these last two days, making unfamiliar sounds...

Hmmmmm,,, all things considered, shouldn't this be included?
:rolleyes:

Interests from Central Louisiana to the Florida panhandle need to keep abrest of this system. The ridge of high pressure+trough=Cindy+Texan disturbance+very warm water=uncertainty. If it doesn't fall apart over Cuba/Hispanola, then it could well go down as one of the strongest early-season storms of record. Gulf Coast, beware! Could a July Cat. 3 or 4 be on the horizon for our Gulf? Let's sit back and watch this storm, it could turn out to be a very interesting show. Also, already 4 storms, and now potentially a major one, and it's still the first week of July! If this holds, then "fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy ride."

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

...ADDED MISSING TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...

...DENNIS CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR
EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST OR ABOUT
255 MILES... 410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
AND ABOUT 440 MILES... 710 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK...DENNIS WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 65 MPH... 100 KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...15.2 N... 70.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

WTNT44 KNHC 061508
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

DENNIS APPEARS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT THE
INNER CORE SEEMS TO STILL BE IN THE ORGANIZING STAGES. 12Z DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM
SAB...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL COMPROMISE AT 60 KT. THE
CONVECTIVE TOPS OF THE BANDING EVIDENT AT 12Z HAVE SINCE WARMED
SLIGHTLY...BUT A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED NEAR
THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE DENNIS THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER
DETERMINE THE INTENSITY. OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD... INCLUDING WARM WATERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND GULF OF MEXICO...AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS INDICATED BY
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE LATEST GFDL RUN IN
BRINGING DENNIS TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CURRENTLY CENTERED NORTH OF CUBA IS THE PRIMARY MECHANISM THAT
SHOULD STEER DENNIS GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR ABOUT
THE NEXT THREE DAYS UNTIL IT CROSSES CUBA. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT
THROUGH DAY THREE...BUT WITH SOME DIVERGENCE THEREAFTER OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE GFS ON THE LEFT AND THE
GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ON THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS VERY CLOSE TO A
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE FASTER CONU AND
THE SLOWER FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO EMPHASIZE THAT FORECAST ERRORS AT THESE LONGER RANGES CAN BE
QUITE LARGE...AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 15.4N 71.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 16.5N 73.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 18.1N 76.1W 75 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 19.8N 78.7W 90 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 21.1N 80.9W 100 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 23.5N 84.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 27.0N 85.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 87.0W 100 KT...INLAN

000
WTNT34 KNHC 061758
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF DENNIS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT
ABOUT 350 MILES... 565 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...25
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA EARLY
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE DENNIS THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...15.7 N... 72.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

Observation Number: 09
Time: 19:50:40Z
Latitude: 15.8°N
Longitude: 72.1°W
Location: 191 mi S of Port-au-Prince, Haiti
Minimum height at NA mb 2981 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: 35 mph
Maximum flight level wind: SW (228°) @ 61 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 24 mi SSE (147°)
Sea level pressure: 987 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 46°F at 10020 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 55°F at 10000 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 52°F
Eye character: OPEN NW
Eye shape: Elliptical
Eye diameter: Major axis oriented NE (45°), major axis length: 40 mi, minor axis length: 29 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at Surface
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 2 nm
MAX FL WIND 58 KT N QUAD 18:07:50 Z
SEA SFC OBSCD FOR MOST OF INBOUND LEG

WTNT34 KNHC 062046
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

...OUTER BANDS OF DENNIS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND
GUANTANAMO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
WESTWARD...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST OR ABOUT
315 MILES... 510 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT
340 MILES... 545 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH... 22
KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS WILL BE CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA EARLY
THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS....AND
DENNIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE
AIRCRAFT IS STILL INVESTIGATING DENNIS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...16.0 N... 72.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH

WTNT44 KNHC 062059
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

WHILE 18Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
RECENTLY MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB...MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE THUS FAR BEEN ONLY 58 KT. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ADJUSTED TO 55 KT...BUT THE RECENT PRESSURE
FALLS AND THE INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DENNIS COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY
SHORTLY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION TO...AND THEN SUSTAINING...MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS.
IN FACT...THE LATEST GFDL MODEL OUTPUT FORECASTS 127 KT AND 931 MB
BY 48 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT 100 KT IN 72
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MAKING DENNIS A
MAJOR HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS.

DENNIS IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...WITH AN
ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 295/12. WHILE THE OVERALL TRACK
FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT...OR WEST...AT DAYS THREE
THROUGH FIVE...TAKING DENNIS THROUGH THE CENTRAL RATHER THAN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LATER PORTION OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ONLY ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT...SINCE IT IS PRUDENT NOT TO
MAKE LARGE CHANGES TO THE TRACK FROM ONE FORECAST PACKAGE TO THE
NEXT. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE MAY VERY WELL SHIFT BACK TO THE
EAST LATER...AND FURTHER OFFICIAL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL WAIT TO
SEE HOW THE MODEL TRENDS EVOLVE.

FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 16.0N 72.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 17.0N 74.3W 70 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 18.4N 76.7W 80 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 20.0N 79.1W 95 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 21.4N 81.4W 100 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 24.0N 84.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 27.5N 86.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 31.0N 88.0W 65 KT...INLAND

000
WTNT34 KNHC 062350
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

...DENNIS CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
WESTWARD...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
LATER TONIGHT.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HOWEVER...STRONG SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT 280
MILES... 455 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT
295 MILES... 470 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS WILL PASS OVER OR JUST EAST OF JAMAICA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
BEFORE IT REACHES JAMAICA ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...16.3 N... 72.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART