TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 10.2N 19.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.07.2005 10.2N 19.6W WEAK
12UTC 07.07.2005 10.5N 22.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.07.2005 10.8N 25.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.07.2005 11.3N 26.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.07.2005 12.8N 28.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.07.2005 13.6N 31.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.07.2005 14.0N 34.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.07.2005 14.6N 37.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.07.2005 14.8N 39.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2005 15.2N 41.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.07.2005 15.5N 44.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.07.2005 16.0N 46.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2005 16.2N 48.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 10.6N 22.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 07.07.2005 10.6N 22.0W MODERATE

00UTC 08.07.2005 11.2N 24.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.07.2005 11.9N 26.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.07.2005 13.0N 28.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 09.07.2005 12.4N 30.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.07.2005 12.5N 34.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.07.2005 13.6N 37.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.07.2005 14.8N 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 11.07.2005 14.9N 41.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.07.2005 14.7N 43.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.07.2005 15.5N 45.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 13.07.2005 15.5N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 13.07.2005 16.0N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

This thing is becoming much better oreganized. Most of the models MM5/Gfs shows a northward or northeastward track. Watch out Cape verdes for a possible tropical storm.

Still watching for slow development???


TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 11.4N 24.4W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 08.07.2005 11.4N 24.4W MODERATE

12UTC 08.07.2005 12.2N 25.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.07.2005 12.8N 28.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 09.07.2005 13.3N 31.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.07.2005 13.6N 34.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.07.2005 13.6N 38.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.07.2005 13.8N 40.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 11.07.2005 14.4N 42.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.07.2005 15.2N 44.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.07.2005 15.4N 47.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 13.07.2005 15.4N 50.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 13.07.2005 16.5N 52.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 14.07.2005 17.2N 55.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on July 9, 2005


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dennis...located about 85 miles southwest of Key West Florida.

Satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with a
tropical wave located halfway between Africa and the Lesser
Antilles has become a little better organized. There is a potential
for slow development as the wave moves westward during the next day
or two.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Sunday.
Forecaster Avila

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
608
ABNT20 KNHC 091511
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DENNIS...LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA OR ALSO
ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

It looks like we will see Emily from this.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982005) ON 20050709 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050709 1200 050710 0000 050710 1200 050711 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.3N 37.3W 10.9N 40.0W 11.2N 42.7W 11.4N 45.6W
BAMM 10.3N 37.3W 10.9N 39.4W 11.3N 41.5W 11.4N 43.8W
A98E 10.3N 37.3W 10.6N 39.5W 11.1N 41.8W 11.7N 44.3W
LBAR 10.3N 37.3W 10.9N 39.6W 11.6N 42.4W 12.7N 45.2W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 23KTS 27KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 23KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050711 1200 050712 1200 050713 1200 050714 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 48.6W 11.4N 54.7W 11.7N 60.3W 12.8N 65.4W
BAMM 11.4N 46.3W 11.4N 51.5W 12.0N 55.7W 13.0N 60.2W
A98E 12.1N 46.7W 13.3N 51.5W 14.6N 56.2W 16.6N 60.9W
LBAR 13.6N 48.3W 15.1N 54.1W 16.2N 58.7W 15.9N 59.7W
SHIP 32KTS 42KTS 48KTS 52KTS
DSHP 32KTS 42KTS 48KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.3N LONCUR = 37.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 35.3W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 33.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


F

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982005) ON 20050710 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050710 0600 050710 1800 050711 0600 050711 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 10.9N 40.4W 11.3N 42.9W 11.4N 45.4W 11.4N 47.9W

BAMM 10.9N 40.4W 11.3N 42.6W 11.3N 44.9W 11.4N 47.3W

A98E 10.9N 40.4W 11.4N 43.1W 11.8N 45.7W 12.1N 48.4W

LBAR 10.9N 40.4W 11.5N 42.9W 12.2N 45.5W 13.1N 48.4W

SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 37KTS

DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 37KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050712 0600 050713 0600 050714 0600 050715 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 11.3N 50.6W 11.3N 56.1W 11.8N 61.7W 13.0N 66.9W

BAMM 11.4N 49.8W 11.7N 54.3W 12.4N 58.4W 13.7N 62.3W

A98E 12.0N 50.9W 12.8N 55.7W 13.3N 60.3W 13.8N 65.1W

LBAR 13.7N 51.2W 15.1N 56.8W 16.1N 62.0W 13.0N 65.4W

SHIP 46KTS 58KTS 65KTS 67KTS

DSHP 46KTS 58KTS 65KTS 67KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 10.9N LONCUR = 40.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 37.9W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 12KT

LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 35.8W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

The quickscats show a well defined LLC. With 25 knot winds. Ir shows that deep convection has formed over it. It is close to becoming a tropical depression.

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on July 10, 2005


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dennis...located about 80 miles south-southeast of Pensacola
Florida.

The tropical wave located about 1250 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to show signs of organization....and this system
has the potential to develop into a tropical depression during the
next day or two as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Monday.
Forecaster Knabb

:silly:

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982005) ON 20050710 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050710 1800 050711 0600 050711 1800 050712 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.8N 42.2W 11.1N 44.6W 11.5N 46.9W 11.8N 49.2W
A98E 10.8N 42.2W 11.0N 44.5W 11.4N 47.0W 11.7N 49.5W
LBAR 10.8N 42.2W 11.0N 44.7W 11.8N 47.6W 12.5N 50.6W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050712 1800 050713 1800 050714 1800 050715 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.9N 51.7W 12.5N 57.1W 14.0N 62.6W 15.7N 67.8W
A98E 11.8N 52.1W 12.9N 57.1W 14.0N 62.0W 15.3N 67.0W
LBAR 13.1N 53.8W 13.8N 59.9W 14.9N 64.9W 15.8N 68.4W
SHIP 48KTS 62KTS 68KTS 72KTS
DSHP 48KTS 62KTS 68KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 42.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 40.0W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 37.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 102106
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DENNIS...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
OR NEAR MOLINO FLORIDA.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 1180 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

5:30 P.M. AST 7/10/2005 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

This is an independent product

Satellite imagery indicates that a tropical depression is likely forming about 1200 miles east of the Windward Islands. This feature is expected to move to the west. Residents of the Windward and Leeward Islands need to monitor the progress of this system very closely

Updates and forecast discussions will begin on the system tomorrow morning if it develops. Please understand that we have just followed a major hurricane for many days and need a little down time. Full service on this cyclone will be available as of tomorrow morning.

Forecaster: Ortt

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982005) ON 20050710 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050710 1800 050711 0600 050711 1800 050712 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 10.9N 41.5W 11.0N 44.1W 11.2N 46.8W 11.3N 49.2W

BAMM 10.9N 41.5W 11.2N 43.8W 11.6N 46.1W 11.9N 48.3W

A98E 10.9N 41.5W 11.1N 43.5W 11.5N 45.7W 11.9N 48.0W

LBAR 10.9N 41.5W 11.1N 43.8W 11.9N 46.5W 12.7N 49.4W

SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 47KTS

DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 47KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050712 1800 050713 1800 050714 1800 050715 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 11.3N 51.8W 11.7N 57.4W 12.9N 62.9W 14.4N 68.4W

BAMM 12.2N 50.7W 13.3N 55.7W 15.4N 60.9W 17.7N 65.6W

A98E 12.2N 50.6W 13.7N 55.8W 15.1N 61.1W 16.7N 66.3W

LBAR 13.2N 52.5W 14.2N 58.8W 15.1N 64.1W 18.2N 67.2W

SHIP 55KTS 66KTS 70KTS 71KTS

DSHP 55KTS 66KTS 70KTS 71KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 10.9N LONCUR = 41.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 39.7W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 37.9W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....









Invest 98L
5pm pst/8pm est
7-10-2005

The LLC is still very well defined on quickscats. With the LLC at 10.5 north/41 west...A large area of convection has formed right over the center. It appears to have favable outflow to the north. I'v seen tropical depressions get upgraded with no quickscat data. But just one or two ship reports. Recon went in found no surface circ. This system they would be sure because if the quickscats show it its strong...

The hurricane models are moving northward to around 15 to 17 north as they cross the Leewards. Ship model makes this a hurricane of 71 knots at 120 hurricanes. The Gfdl has backed off to a tropical storm with a track about where the hurricane models are. The Gfs/Cmc shows about where the hurricane models show. Will the 12z Ecmwf takes this through the caribbean.

I think a westward track for the next 36 to 48 hours fellowed by a west-northwest or northwest track through out to 108 hours then turning more westward as it reachs near Purto Rirco. The water out there seems to be more then warm enough. With low upper level shear of 5 to 10 knots expected to hold in.

I expect with this data for this system to do this...
Now 25 mph
24 35 mph tropical depression
36 40 mph tropical storm
48 50 mph
60 60 mph
72 65 mph
84 70 mph Near Leewards....
96 75 mph hurricane
108 80 mph hurricane
120 nearing

Because of the outflow/Oreganizion of this system expect a normal upwards in overall winds over the forecast period. The system is also starting to form a well defined area of convection...



Forecaster Matthew

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.8 42.0 275./11.1
6 10.9 42.5 279./ 4.9
12 11.4 43.7 293./12.5
18 11.4 45.5 270./17.1
24 11.7 46.0 304./ 6.7
30 12.0 47.2 283./11.9
36 12.2 48.5 280./13.0
42 12.7 49.9 287./14.5
48 13.1 51.7 285./18.1
54 13.4 53.3 279./15.7
60 13.8 54.9 286./15.8
66 14.1 56.5 279./15.8
72 14.8 58.2 294./17.9
78 15.2 59.8 282./16.1
84 15.6 61.2 285./13.8
90 16.2 62.3 297./12.6
96 17.1 63.7 306./16.0
102 17.6 64.8 292./12.0
108 18.4 65.9 308./12.5
114 19.1 66.8 307./11.9
120 20.0 67.6 318./11.2
126 20.6 68.5 305./10.8

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE (AL052005) ON 20050711 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050711 0000 050711 1200 050712 0000 050712 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.8N 42.4W 10.9N 45.0W 10.9N 47.7W 10.9N 50.3W
BAMM 10.8N 42.4W 11.2N 44.7W 11.6N 46.9W 11.9N 49.3W
A98E 10.8N 42.4W 10.9N 44.4W 11.3N 46.6W 12.0N 49.0W
LBAR 10.8N 42.4W 11.1N 44.8W 11.7N 47.5W 12.3N 50.6W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050713 0000 050714 0000 050715 0000 050716 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.8N 53.1W 11.0N 59.0W 12.0N 64.6W 13.7N 69.9W
BAMM 12.3N 51.7W 13.7N 57.0W 16.2N 62.5W 18.7N 67.0W
A98E 12.6N 51.6W 14.5N 56.9W 16.2N 62.3W 18.3N 67.1W
LBAR 12.8N 53.8W 13.3N 60.3W 14.8N 65.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 55KTS 64KTS 67KTS 70KTS
DSHP 55KTS 64KTS 67KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 42.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 40.6W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 38.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Tropical Depression Five Forecast/Advisory Number 1


Statement as of 03:00Z on July 11, 2005


Tropical depression center located near 10.8n 42.9w at 11/0300z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the west or 270 degrees at 10 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1010 mb
Max sustained winds 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 10.8n 42.9w at 11/0300z
at 11/0000z center was located near 10.8n 42.4w

forecast valid 11/1200z 11.0n 44.5w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 12/0000z 11.5n 46.7w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 30ne 0se 0sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 12/1200z 12.1n 49.0w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 40ne 20se 20sw 40nw.

Forecast valid 13/0000z 12.8n 51.7w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 20ne 0se 0sw 20nw.
34 kt... 50ne 30se 30sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 14/0000z 14.5n 57.5w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 15se 15sw 25nw.
34 kt... 60ne 40se 40sw 60nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 15/0000z 16.5n 63.5w...near northern Lesser Antilles
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.

Outlook valid 16/0000z 19.5n 69.0w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 10.8n 42.9w

next advisory at 11/0900z

forecaster Stewart

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN JUL 10 2005

...FIFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST OR ABOUT
1280 MILES...2055 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...10.8 N... 42.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
NNNN

11 P.M. AST 7/10/2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 UPDATE #1

This is an independent product

And yet another tropical depression forms. Residents of the Lesser Antilles need to closely monitor the progress of this developing system

Currently, the center of Tropical Depression 5 is located near 10.8N and 42.8W. This places the center more than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The motion is to the west near 12 m.p.h. A west to WNW track is expected, bringing the storm toward the Lesser Antilles later this week.

Maximum winds are near 30 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 1010mb. This system is expected to become a tropical storm within the next 24-36 hours.

Next Update: 11 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on July 10, 2005



Conventional and microwave satellite images indicate the strong
tropical wave about 1280 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has
strengthened into Tropical Depression Five. The initial intensity
of 25 kt is based on a satellite intensity estimate of 25 kt from
both TAFB and SAB. Since the 00z satellite classifications...a
small burst of deep convection has developed near the well-defined
low-level center...which further supports at least 25-kt intensity.

The initial motion estimate is 270/10. The NHC model guidance is in
reasonable agreement on a general westward track through 24-36
hours...with a gradual turn toward the west-northwest after that.
The GFDL...GFS...NOGAPS...and medium BAM models take the cyclone
across the central to northern Lesser Antilles in 84 to 96 hours
toward a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge. By day 5...
the ridge between Bermuda and the Lesser Antilles is forecast to
build back in and possibly turn the cyclone on a more westward
track over or near Puerto Rico and the domincian Republic.

The depression...while well-defined at the surface and aloft...is
embedded within only a moderately moist environment as noted in
water vapor imagery. As such...occasional intrusions of dry air
will briefly weaken the convection near the center...which should
only allow for slow intensification to occur for the first 48 hours
or so. After that...the combination of weak vertical shear...near
29c SSTs...and an increasingly more moist environment should allow
for some modest intensification to occur. The official forecast is
close to the SHIPS model...but not nearly as robust as the GFDL
model...which brings the cyclone up to 112 kt in 120 hours or so.

Forecaster Stewart
Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 11/0300z 10.8n 42.9w 25 kt
12hr VT 11/1200z 11.0n 44.5w 30 kt
24hr VT 12/0000z 11.5n 46.7w 35 kt
36hr VT 12/1200z 12.1n 49.0w 40 kt
48hr VT 13/0000z 12.8n 51.7w 50 kt
72hr VT 14/0000z 14.5n 57.5w 60 kt
96hr VT 15/0000z 16.5n 63.5w 70 kt
120hr VT 16/0000z 19.5n 69.0w 75 kt

Tropical depression 5#
10:30pm pst/1:30am est
Forecast 2#

The fifth tropical depression of the system, forms over the central Atlantic....


Based on quickscat/Visible satellite shows that a clearly defined LLC had formed. An area of convection tonight had formed over this area of low pressure/LLC and warrent the upgrade to tropical depression 5#. This makes this the earliest 5th system to develop in history.


Current Cimss shear maps show that the cyclone, is within an area of 5 to 8 knot shear. Which is extremely favorable for fast development. In fact that shear has been lessened by 5 knots over the last 24 hours...Also the shear appears to be favorable/super favorable. All the way to the leeward islands south of 18 north at this moment. The Gfs shows this system making it near the leeward islands within 72 to 84 hours. In which case a TUTT low starts forming over the central/eastern caribbean by 84 hours. Which should increase the shear over the area of the northeastern Caribbean. But on the other hand the ship models show this becoming a 67 knot hurricane. While the Gfdl shows it moving through the islands as an 85 knot hurricane. Both models show a west-northwest track. Then turns it into a cat4 hurricane at around 18.5/85.5...In which case is way to extreme....

The fact that the water is around 84 to 86 degrees, and the fact that the northeastern caribbean waters are around 85 to 88 degrees, I expect this to hold its own if not get even stronger. The Cmc also shows 72 to 84 hour time frame for the hit on the leewards. It is making it stronger. In which case might be because it does not develop the TUTT like the GFS/GFDL doe's. In which case the CMC has proven to be an ok model. The Outlayer is the ECMWF which brings it through at its 12z run the southern Caribbean.

One factor that might slow down the system is a large area of dry air from 50 to 60 west. In which case could stop development until it makes it through this area. That is the main thing against the development of this system. In which case should take another 24 hours to reach. The latest satellite shows that the system has become much better organized. Which a deep area of convection may form right over the LLC. The system is becoming tighter, with perfect outflow forming over all quads. The first signs of rainbands have also started to form, which means that this system is likely very close to becoming a tropical storm.

So a landfall on the leewards between 84 to 86 hours.
A second landfall an Puerto Rico by 108 hours...

To note, I only forecast for the next 48 to 60 hours, a slow upswing. Mostly because of the dry air...


Winds
0 35 mph
12 40 mph tropical storm
24 40 mph
36 45 mph Dry air!!!
48 45 mph
60 55 mph
72 60 mph
84 70 mph making landfall over the leewards
96 75 mph hurricane
108 80 mph Landfall over Puerto Rico
120 60 mph

Forecaster Matthew

;) Yonder cometh Emily

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST MON JUL 11 2005

...DEPRESSION GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WHILE CONTINUING WESTWARD OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 43.6 WEST OR ABOUT
1185 MILES...1910 KM... EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19
KM/HR...AND A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN
INTO A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...10.8 N... 43.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2005

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS NOW A RAGGED BANDING FEATURE OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
ARE T2.0...I.E. 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING THROUGH AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS CAUSING THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO BE SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS RATHER WEAK SHEAR
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE
CENTER...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE MOTION REMAINS 270/10.
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC AND BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING
CURRENT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF
AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST GFDL MODEL TRACK OUTPUT.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0900Z 10.8N 43.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 11.1N 45.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 11.6N 48.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 12.1N 50.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 12.6N 53.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 14.5N 60.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 15/0600Z 17.0N 66.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 16/0600Z 19.5N 71.0W 70 KT...INLAND

$$

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON JUL 11 2005

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 44.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1120 MILES...1800 KM... EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
ON TUESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...10.3 N... 44.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$

WTNT45 KNHC 111441
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2005

VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...
WITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION...ABOUT 80 NM TO THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL TURNING.
A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 09Z SUGGESTED THAT THIS SMALL LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION MAY MERELY BE A SWIRL EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ILL-DEFINED
BROADER LOW. IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS ALSO SUGGEST THAT IT IS THE BROADER LOW THAT MAY
ULTIMATELY PREVAIL. RATHER THAN JERK THE TRACK BACK TO THE EAST TO
FOLLOW THE SWIRL...I PREFER TO FOLLOW THE BROADER SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME. THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...AND DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB OF T2.0...ARE GOOD REASONS NOT TO
UPGRADE THE DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL STORM.

WHILE THERE IS PRESENTLY SOME EASTERLY SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
WELL AS MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS...THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN BOTH REGARDS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. GIVEN THIS...SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL...WHICH
DEVELOPS THE DEPRESSION ONLY SLOWLY AT FIRST...CONTINUES TO MAKE
THE CYCLONE A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE IN THE CARIBBEAN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE CONTINUES TO BE 270/10. SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND
BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS. IT IS PERHAPS
OF INTEREST TO NOTE THAT THE NOGAPS...WHICH HAD ONLY A SO-SO YEAR
LAST YEAR...IS CURRENTLY THE BEST PERFORMING ATLANTIC TRACK MODEL
SO FAR IN 2005...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH WON HANDS DOWN
LAST YEAR...IS STRUGGLING A BIT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 10.3N 44.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 10.4N 46.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 10.8N 48.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 11.5N 52.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 12.2N 55.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 14.0N 61.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 16.5N 67.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 19.0N 73.0W 70 KT


$$

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON JUL 11 2005

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1030 MILES...1655 KM... EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED...BUT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...10.6 N... 46.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTNT45 KNHC 112038
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2005

GOOD LUCK FINDING A CENTER IN THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THERE IS CLEARLY A BROAD-SCALE CIRCULATION...THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
VERY POORLY ORGANIZED. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL
TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST OF MY ESTIMATED POSITION...AS EVIDENCED BY
A MICROWAVE PASS AT 1737Z...BUT FOR THIS PACKAGE I WILL TRY TO LOOK
AT THE BIG PICTURE AND FOLLOW THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF THE OVERALL
DISTURBANCE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB...AND
35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. GIVEN THE CYCLONE'S DISHEVELED
APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/12. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY WELL CLUSTERED...WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BEING THE FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR AND IS SOUTH OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW STEADY STRENGHENING IS ANTICIPATED...ROUGHLY
IN ACCORD WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO MAKE
THE CYCLONE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CARIBBEAN.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 10.6N 46.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 10.9N 47.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 11.6N 50.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 12.4N 53.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 13.2N 56.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 15.0N 63.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 17.0N 68.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 16/1800Z 19.5N 74.0W 70 KT

looks like a big trough

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/trop_lant4col.gif

I'm rooting for tropical depression to become Emily...Come on Emily come on!!! :silly:

TROPICAL STORM FIVE (AL052005) ON 20050712 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050712 0000 050712 1200 050713 0000 050713 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.2N 46.4W 11.5N 48.4W 11.9N 50.6W 12.3N 53.0W
BAMM 11.2N 46.4W 11.7N 48.6W 12.3N 51.0W 12.9N 53.6W
A98E 11.2N 46.4W 11.7N 48.5W 12.2N 50.8W 13.0N 53.3W
LBAR 11.2N 46.4W 11.5N 49.0W 12.0N 51.9W 12.3N 55.1W
SHIP 35KTS 44KTS 53KTS 60KTS
DSHP 35KTS 44KTS 53KTS 60KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050714 0000 050715 0000 050716 0000 050717 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.9N 55.7W 14.3N 61.4W 15.6N 66.4W 16.4N 71.1W
BAMM 13.7N 56.4W 15.4N 62.0W 16.8N 67.1W 17.4N 71.8W
A98E 13.7N 55.8W 15.3N 61.1W 16.5N 66.3W 17.1N 71.2W
LBAR 12.8N 58.7W 14.0N 65.7W 15.0N 72.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 67KTS 78KTS 82KTS 83KTS
DSHP 67KTS 78KTS 82KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 46.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 44.4W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 42.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 25NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 25NM

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2005

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS...AND THE EARLIER EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ON THE EAST
SIDE THAT HAD BEEN ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE LARGER CIRCULATION
HAS WRAPPED INTO THE CENTER UNDERNEATH A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS
T2.5/35 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBER IS 3.0/45 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND
THE MUCH IMPROVED INFRARED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE INTENSITY WAS
INCREASED TO 35 KT ON THE SYNOPTIC TIME AND 40 KT FOR THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY...AND THE SYSTEM IS NAMED EMILY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
PATTERN IS SMALL BUT SYMMETRICAL...AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11. DUE TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FARTHER NORTH INTO THE DEEPER CONVECTION...THE
FORECAST TRACK HAD TO BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTH...OR RIGHT...OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUT OTHER THAN THAT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
JUST PARALLEL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
UNUSUALLY STRONG AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES IN ABOUT 60 HOURS...NEAR PUERTO
RICO IN 72-84 HOURS...AND THEN PASSING OVER OR NORTH OF EASTERN
HISPANIOLA IN 120 HOURS. IN FACT...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SO TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED...NOW THAT THE NOGAPS MODEL HAS COME INTO THE FOLD...THE
MODEL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN 120 HOURS IS LESS THAN 120 NMI. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND CLOSE TO THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE OR
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AFTER 24-36 HOURS WHEN EMILY
IS FORECAST TO MOVE UNDERNEATH A SMALL 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AS
DEPICTED BY THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST. HOWEVER
...IF EMILY DOES NOT INTERACT MUCH WITH PUERTO RICO AND/OR
HISPANIOLA...THEN THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER AT 120 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 11.3N 47.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 11.8N 48.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 12.6N 51.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 13.5N 54.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 14.5N 58.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 16.8N 64.1W 80 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 69.5W 85 KT...NEAR PUERTO RICO
120HR VT 17/0000Z 21.5N 75.5W 85 KT...NEAR ERN HISPANIOLA

WTNT35 KNHC 120233
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON JUL 11 2005

...EMILY BECOMES THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1000 MILES...1610 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 47.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

12/0545 UTC 11.1N 48.8W T3.0/3.0 EMILY
:silly:

Tropical Storm Emily Advisory Number 6


Statement as of 5:00 am AST on July 12, 2005


...Emily moving westward over the tropical Atlantic...
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Emily.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Emily was located
near latitude 11.4 north... longitude 48.6 west or about 845
miles...1360 km... east of the Windward Islands.
Emily is moving toward the west near 15 mph...24 km/hr...and a
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph... 75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles
... 55 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.
Repeating the 5 am AST position...11.4 N... 48.6 W. Movement
toward...west near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am AST.
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number 6


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 12, 2005


There has not been much change in the overall organization of the
storm as perceived from satellite images. Dvorak intensity
estimates from AFWA...TAFB...and SAB range from 35 to 45 kt...but
the convective banding features are not very prominent at this
time. Emily's intensity is held at 40 kt for this package. The
global models are forecasting an upper-level anticylone over the
tropical cyclone during the forecast period...and this scenario
would appear to be favorable for strengthening. The official wind
speed forecast is similar to that from the previous advisory...
although SHIPS and the GFDL model suggest that Emily could
strengthen at a somewhat faster rate than shown here.
There is considerable spread in center position estimates...but my
best guess is that the storm is now moving at a slightly faster
forward speed...280 at 13 kt. For the next few days...Emily will
continue to be steered by the flow on the southern periphery of a
subtropical ridge. Dynamical track guidance for this package has
shifted southward somewhat. This shift is consistent with the
global model's prediction of the formation of a rather strong
mid-tropospheric high over the southeastern U.S. Late in the
forecast period. The official track forecast is adjusted southward
in this advisory...however it is north of the latest consensus
model track.
It is notable that...with Emily's formation...this is the earliest
date on record for the formation of five named cyclones.

Forecaster Pasch


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 12/0900z 11.4n 48.6w 40 kt
12hr VT 12/1800z 12.0n 50.5w 45 kt
24hr VT 13/0600z 12.9n 53.5w 55 kt
36hr VT 13/1800z 13.6n 56.4w 65 kt
48hr VT 14/0600z 14.4n 59.6w 75 kt
72hr VT 15/0600z 16.5n 66.0w 80 kt
96hr VT 16/0600z 18.5n 71.5w 85 kt
120hr VT 17/0600z 20.0n 77.0w 85 kt...inland

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE JUL 12 2005

...EMILY STRENGTHENING...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
BARBADOS...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST.
LUCIA...BY THE APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST OR ABOUT
575 MILES... 925 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND EMILY HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...11.0 N... 51.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTNT35 KNHC 121743
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST TUE JUL 12 2005

...EMILY CONTINUES RAPIDLY WESTWARD...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...GRENADA...THE
GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN
36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL OR
PART OF THE WATCH AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.9 WEST OR ABOUT
530 MILES... 850 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE REACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...11.1 N... 51.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$

000
WTNT45 KNHC 121458
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005

EMILY IS SHOWING IMPROVED BANDING THIS MORNING...AND A MICROWAVE
PASS AT 0920Z DOES MUCH TO IMPROVE CONFIDENCE IN A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER LOCATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED
ON A T3.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM SAB. OUTFLOW IS STRONG BOTH
TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS CONSOLIDATING...A MORE
RAPID STRENGTHENING TREND IS LIKELY...WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT BEING THE ONLY OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTOR. BOTH THE
SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING EMILY TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THREE DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS
GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/18...CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN
BEFORE. MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS HAD SOMETHING OF A RIGHT BIAS
SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD
KEEP EMILY ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE INITIAL LOCATION OF THE
CENTER...MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...EVEN MORE
SO THAN YESTERDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED ABOUT
100 NMI SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 11.0N 51.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 11.4N 53.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 11.9N 57.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 12.8N 60.2W 75 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 14.0N 63.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 16.0N 69.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 18.0N 75.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 80.0W 100 KT