TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EMILY... LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 15 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SAN FERNANDO MEXICO OR ABOUT 75 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20050720 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050720 1800 050721 0600 050721 1800 050722 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.0N 71.0W 22.7N 73.1W 23.9N 74.8W 24.7N 76.2W
BAMM 21.0N 71.0W 22.6N 73.8W 24.0N 75.9W 25.2N 77.6W
A98E 21.0N 71.0W 22.3N 73.1W 23.7N 75.2W 25.1N 77.1W
LBAR 21.0N 71.0W 22.4N 73.0W 23.5N 74.9W 24.5N 76.5W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050722 1800 050723 1800 050724 1800 050725 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.1N 77.4W 25.0N 80.2W 25.2N 83.9W 26.1N 88.0W
BAMM 26.1N 78.6W 27.0N 79.9W 27.5N 82.1W 28.5N 84.4W
A98E 26.5N 78.9W 29.2N 81.0W 30.5N 82.1W 31.4N 80.8W
LBAR 25.2N 77.8W 26.5N 79.7W 27.8N 81.2W 29.4N 82.8W
SHIP 34KTS 39KTS 43KTS 45KTS
DSHP 34KTS 39KTS 28KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.0N LONCUR = 71.0W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 19.7N LONM12 = 69.0W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 18.3N LONM24 = 67.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Lets keep this serious discussion...Post stuff like Advisories...

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 25.1N LONCUR = 98.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

LATM12 = 24.5N LONM12 = 96.8W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 7KT

LATM24 = 24.1N LONM24 = 95.1W

WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 55NM WNDM12 = 110KT

CENPRS = 975MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 110NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 60NM










000

WHXX01 KWBC 210053

CHGHUR



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20050721 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050721 0000 050721 1200 050722 0000 050722 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 21.8N 72.1W 23.2N 74.0W 24.3N 75.5W 25.1N 76.8W

BAMM 21.8N 72.1W 23.3N 74.6W 24.5N 76.4W 25.7N 78.0W

A98E 21.8N 72.1W 23.1N 74.2W 24.6N 76.1W 26.3N 77.6W

LBAR 21.8N 72.1W 23.3N 74.1W 24.2N 75.8W 25.2N 77.1W

SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS

DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050723 0000 050724 0000 050725 0000 050726 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 25.5N 78.0W 25.9N 80.2W 26.4N 82.9W 27.2N 85.5W

BAMM 26.6N 78.7W 27.9N 79.6W 28.7N 81.2W 29.2N 82.9W

A98E 28.2N 78.5W 30.7N 79.3W 32.2N 78.9W 33.0N 74.4W

LBAR 25.9N 78.2W 27.3N 79.6W 28.8N 80.6W 30.5N 81.7W

SHIP 37KTS 42KTS 48KTS 50KTS

DSHP 37KTS 42KTS 35KTS 28KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 21.8N LONCUR = 72.1W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

LATM12 = 20.4N LONM12 = 70.0W DIRM12 = 306DEG SPDM12 = 12KT

LATM24 = 19.0N LONM24 = 68.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20050721 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050721 0600 050721 1800 050722 0600 050722 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 22.3N 73.5W 23.4N 75.1W 24.2N 76.5W 24.8N 77.7W

BAMM 22.3N 73.5W 23.5N 75.6W 24.5N 77.4W 25.5N 78.6W

A98E 22.3N 73.5W 23.5N 75.9W 24.8N 78.0W 26.2N 79.5W

LBAR 22.3N 73.5W 23.4N 75.4W 24.3N 77.2W 25.2N 78.4W

SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 33KTS

DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 33KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050723 0600 050724 0600 050725 0600 050726 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 25.1N 78.7W 25.2N 81.2W 25.4N 84.9W 26.0N 88.7W

BAMM 26.2N 79.3W 26.7N 80.6W 26.9N 83.2W 27.5N 86.1W

A98E 27.4N 80.5W 29.1N 83.1W 30.3N 85.3W 30.5N 86.2W

LBAR 25.9N 79.5W 27.0N 80.7W 27.9N 82.5W 29.5N 85.3W

SHIP 37KTS 43KTS 48KTS 50KTS

DSHP 37KTS 33KTS 33KTS 36KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 22.3N LONCUR = 73.5W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

LATM12 = 21.1N LONM12 = 71.1W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 12KT

LATM24 = 19.7N LONM24 = 69.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210914
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EMILY... LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 80
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONTERREY MEXICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
HISPANIOLA....THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO SIGNS
OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L



INITIAL TIME 6Z JUL 21



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 21.9 73.6 300./13.0

6 23.0 74.9 310./15.8

12 24.6 75.4 342./17.2

18 25.5 76.5 310./13.4

24 26.2 77.2 315./ 9.6

30 26.9 77.6 334./ 7.7

36 27.5 77.8 341./ 5.4

42 28.1 77.7 1./ 6.2

48 28.6 77.3 38./ 6.9

54 29.3 76.5 52./ 9.3

60 29.7 75.6 63./ 8.9

66 30.3 74.5 63./11.4

72 30.8 73.3 65./11.1

78 31.4 72.1 66./11.6

84 31.6 71.1 79./ 9.3

90 31.7 70.4 81./ 6.1

96 31.8 70.1 58./ 2.8

102 32.1 69.9 36./ 3.5

108 32.5 69.6 42./ 3.9

114 32.7 69.2 58./ 4.6

120 33.1 68.5 61./ 7.0

126 33.6 67.6 62./ 8.3

000
WONT41 KNHC 211827
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
227 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

A SHIP IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS RECENTLY ESTIMATED WINDS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS
INDICATE THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A
TROPICAL STORM HAS DEVELOPED.

FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA

2 P.M. EDT 7/21/2005 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

This is an independent product

Visible satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance just east of the Bahamas has formed a closed circulation. In addition, convection is starting to fire around the center. Recon will investigate this afternoon to determine whether or not this closed circulation is at the surface. This feature is expected to become at least a tropical depression within the next 12-24 hours, if it has not already developed into one.

Residents of the U.S. East Coast need to closely monitor the progress of this system as it is expected to move slowly to the NW during the next day or so.

Forecaster: Ortt

21/1745 UTC 25.1N 75.1W T2.0/2.0 90

627
WONT41 KNHC 212106
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
510 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED ABOUT 130 MILES EAST
OF NASSAU. AN ADVISORY ON THE DEPRESSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

653
WTNT21 KNHC 212107
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005
2100Z THU JUL 21 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ELEUTHERA...NEW PROVIDENCE...BERRY
ISLANDS...ABACOS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 75.4W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 75.4W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 75.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 26.3N 76.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 28.5N 77.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 28.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 75.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT THE SIXTH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ELEUTHERA...NEW PROVIDENCE...BERRY
ISLANDS...ABACOS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT
125 MILES... 205 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH
...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED...IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.3 N... 75.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
NNNN

2100 UTC 7/21/2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 FORECAST #1

This is an independent product

Another day, another depression. Satellite and aircraft data indicate that the disturbance east of Bahamas has become a tropical depression. Recon also found that the ship reports of tropical storm winds may not be valid.

Initial motion is to the NW. 500mb observations indicates easterly flow at this level, so for the next 24 hours or so, a NW or possibly a WNW track is expected. however, afterward, a trough currently over the Midwest USA is expected to move to the east coast and force the cyclone out to sea, well before reaching the Florida coast. This forecast goes along with this scenario, though it is a bit to the left of the CONU consensus. Should be noted that MM5 run off of GFS takes this much farther to the right and is much faster. GFDL based run is not completed as of yet.

Currently, the system is experiencing shear from a building anti-cyclone over the Caribbean. As Franklin moves north, conditions will favor development and guidance indicates more intensification. Therefore, the forecast indicates slow development to a tropical storm in 24 hours, followed by a slightly faster intensification afterwards once conditions become more favorable. At the end of the period, some weakening is expected as the system moves over cooler waters. An aletrnative scenario is for the system to weaken or dissipate due to the shear from the anti-cyclone. This is not anticipated at this time.

Initial (1800 UTC): 25.0N 75.0W 35KT
12 Hour: 26.4N 76.5W 40KT
24 Hour: 27.5N 77.5W 45KT
36 Hour: 28.7N 77.7W 50KT
48 Hour: 30.2N 77.1W 55KT
72 Hour: 33.0N 74.7W 65KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 35.4N 70.5W 65KT
120 Hour: 37.3N 64.9W 55KT

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

000
WTNT41 KNHC 212134
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND HAVE FOUND WINDS THAT SUPPORT AT
LEAST A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
INITIATED ON TD-6. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT NEAR THE
CENTER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THIS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE DAY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY...INCLUDING THE RESTRICTED SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11...BASED ON THE PAST 3 HOURS OF
SATELLITE POSITIONS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.
THE GLOBAL MODELS TAKE THE SURFACE TO 850 MB CIRCULATION NORTHWARD
AND THEN RECURVE IT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MID-LEVEL/500
MB CIRCULATION WILL MOVE INTO THE RIDGE AXIS AND STALL IN ABOUT 48
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION AND
ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE WEST. AFTER THAT...SOME OF
THE MODELS MEANDER THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EAST OR SOUTHWARD...WHILE THE
GFS AND GFDL MODELS TAKE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD FLORIDA. THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS ACTUALLY TAKE THE
DEPRESSION SLOWLY WESTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH TYPICALLY
SUGGESTS SLOW MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTH AFTER 24 HOURS AND THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE SLOWLY EASTWARD
AND MAKING A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP WELL EAST OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST.

THE WATER AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS QUITE WARM...AROUND 29C...AND
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST REMAIN LOW WITH A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION COULD REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS. NOTE...THE AIRCRAFT HAS
JUST REPORTED AT 2114Z FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 48 KT...WHICH WOULD
NORMALLY SUPPORT UPGRADING THE DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL STORM.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND WE WOULD PREFER TO SEE
DEEP CONVECTION PERSIST BEFORE UPGRADING THIS SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL
STORM.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 25.3N 75.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 26.3N 76.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 28.5N 77.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 29.0N 77.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 29.0N 76.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 28.5N 76.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 28.0N 76.5W 60 KT

$$

748
WTNT61 KNHC 212256
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
655 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005
AT ABOUT 630 PM EDT... 2230Z... DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAD INCREASED TO 40 MPH. THEREFORE THE
SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN. DETAILS WILL
FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 8 PM EDT... 0000Z.

FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005
0000Z FRI JUL 22 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
FOR ELEUTHERA... NEW PROVIDENCE... THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE
ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 76.0W AT 22/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 76.0W AT 22/0000Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 75.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 26.3N 76.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 28.5N 77.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 70 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 70 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 28.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 76.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

...SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
FOR ELEUTHERA... NEW PROVIDENCE... THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE
ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED...IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES
... 45 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

FRANKLIN COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...25.8 N... 76.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN. DATA FROM AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS AT LEAST 40 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED DURING THE
FIRST 48 HOURS BUT REMAINS 60 KT AT DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE.
INITIAL MOTION IS 310/12... AND THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0000Z 25.8N 76.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 26.3N 76.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 28.5N 77.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 29.0N 77.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 29.0N 76.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 28.5N 76.0W 60 KT

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

...FRANKLIN VERY NEAR ELEUTHERA AND GREAT ABACO IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
FOR ELEUTHERA... NEW PROVIDENCE... THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE
ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES... 165 KM... NORTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FRANKLIN IS A SMALL SYSTEM... WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM... MAINLY TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

FRANKLIN COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 76.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 3


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on July 21, 2005



the last reports from the reconnaissance aircraft shortly before 00z
indicated that the central pressure remained 1009 mb... and maximum
1000 ft flight level winds as strong as 57 kt were measured within
a convective burst right near the circulation center. This would
normally correspond to surface winds of about 45 kt... but since
the pressure was relatively high and the convective pattern remains
quite disorganized... with Dvorak T numbers at 2.0 and 2.5... the
initial intensity is held at 40 kt. Recon will once again
investigate Franklin on Friday morning.
The initial motion is 310/11. Franklin is moving toward the
northwest within a relative weakness in the subtropical ridge. It
is expected to slow down during the next couple of days... and be
within an area of weak steering currents to the south of a
midlatitude trough and to the southeast of a building mid-level
ridge over the southeastern United States. Most of the dynamical
models forecast the midlatitude trough to provide enough impetus
toward the east to recurve Franklin toward the open Atlantic.
However... an alternative scenario is that the trough will bypass
Franklin and allow the southeastern U.S. Ridge to halt its exodus
out to sea and perhaps even eventually steer it back to the west.
The official forecast is a compromise between these scenarios and
is a little faster to the northeast than the previous forecast.
Franklin is located between an upper-level ridge and an upper-level
shear axis which is imparting some westerly shear. However... the
shear axis is expected to weaken... which could allow Franklin to
gradually intensify during the next couple of days. Along the
official forecast track... the tropical storm would remain over
27-28c SSTs even late in the forecast period and perhaps be
impacted by moderate northerly shear. Intensification to a
hurricane is highly uncertain. If Franklin moves more quickly out
to sea... this would be unlikely... but if it becomes trapped south
of the subtropical ridge late in the forecast period... the
environment could become favorable for more intensification than is
currently forecast.
Franklin is the earliest sixth tropical storm on record in the
Atlantic Basin.

Forecaster Knabb


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 22/0300z 26.1n 76.3w 40 kt
12hr VT 22/1200z 27.2n 77.3w 45 kt
24hr VT 23/0000z 28.5n 77.4w 50 kt
36hr VT 23/1200z 29.5n 77.1w 55 kt
48hr VT 24/0000z 30.0n 76.5w 55 kt
72hr VT 25/0000z 30.5n 75.5w 60 kt
96hr VT 26/0000z 31.0n 74.5w 60 kt
120hr VT 27/0000z 31.0n 73.5w 60 kt


$$

Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 3a


Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on July 22, 2005



...Center of Franklin near great abaco in the northwestern
Bahamas...

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas
for Eleuthera... New Providence... the Berry Islands... the
Abacos... and Grand Bahama Island.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 2 am EDT...0600z...the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 26.5 north... longitude 76.9 west or near
Great Abaco Island in the northwestern Bahamas. This is also about
105 miles... 170 km... north-northeast of Nassau in the northwestern
Bahamas.

Franklin is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph ...19 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue overnight...followed by a
gradual turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph... 75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Franklin is a small system... with tropical storm force winds
extending outward up to 40 miles... 65 km... mainly to the
northeast from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Franklin could produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches over the
northern Bahamas during the next 24 hours.

Repeating the 2 am EDT position...26.5 N... 76.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 45 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Beven


$$

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

...CENTER OF FRANKLIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS GREAT ABACO ISLAND
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NEW PROVIDENCE AND THE
BERRY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS FOR ELEUTHERA... THE ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 95
MILES... 150 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER OF FRANKLIN NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FRANKLIN REMAINS A SMALL STORM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

FRANKLIN MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...26.7 N... 77.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

WHILE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE COOLING AS THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM
APPROACHES...FRANKLIN HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS POORLY
ORGANIZED...WITH THE STRONGEST CLUSTER EAST OF THE CENTER. SURFACE
REPORTS FROM GREAT ABACO HAVE NOT YET SHOWN THE TIGHT CENTER
REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. A NEW
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOULD REACH FRANKLIN AROUND 12Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305-310 AT 10 KT. FRANKLIN IS HEADING FOR A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA AS A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPOND TO THIS PATTERN BY RECURVING FRANKLIN TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ACCELERATING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS INCLUDES BOTH THE GFS AND
UKMET...WHICH WERE CALLING FOR THE STORM TO STALL IN EARLIER RUNS.
HOWEVER...THE BAMM AND BAMD STILL CALL FOR FRANKLIN TO TURN
WESTWARD AFTER 36 HR...WHILE THE NHC98 CALLS FOR A 5-DAY LOOP NEAR
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THESE SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE IF FRANKLIN
MISSES CONNECTING WITH THE ONCOMING TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...CALLLING FOR FRANKLIN TO
RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AT A SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT AT A SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED
THEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FRANKLIN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR
AXIS...WITH WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WEST OF THE AXIS TRYING TO PUSH
THE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTER AND PRODUCE SHEAR. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST
SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. IN THE LONGER TERM...HOW
FAST FRANKLIN MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL DETERMINE HOW
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE FOR STRENGTHENING. A FASTER MOTION WOULD
PLACE THE STORM EAST OF THE ONCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW MORE STRENGTHENING. A SLOWER MOTION WOULD ALLOW THE
TROUGH TO RUN OVER THE STORM AND EXPOSE IT TO NORTHERLY SHEAR. THE
GFDL...WHICH NOW RACES THE STORM OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...NEVER
STRENGTHENS IT ABOVE 60 KT...AND THE OTHER INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES
NOT STRENGTHEN IT MUCH ABOVE 65 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL
AND SHIPS MODELS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 26.7N 77.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 27.6N 77.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 29.0N 77.6W 50 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 29.9N 76.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 30.5N 75.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 31.5N 73.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 32.5N 69.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 27/0600Z 34.0N 64.0W 60 KT


$$

CZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

...FRANKLIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS GREAT ABACO ISLAND
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS FOR ELEUTHERA... THE ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 80
MILES ... 130 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD KEEP
THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN MOVING PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SINCE FRANLIN IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM...SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

FRANKLIN MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...26.8 N... 77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

...FRANKLIN DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NORTHWESTWARD NEAR ABACO ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS FOR ELEUTHERA...THE ABACOS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.0
WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 45 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO
ISLAND AND ABOUT 115 MILES... 180 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND.

FRANKLIN HAS BEEN MEANDERING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH...AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN
MOVING PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. HOWEVER...SINCE FRANLIN
IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM...SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

FRANKLIN MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...26.8 N... 77.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE OF FRANKLIN HAS IMPROVED THIS
MORNING AND THE SHEAR ON THE WEST SIDE HAS LESSENED. THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION AND FOR THE CLOUD PATTERN TO BECOME MORE CIRCULAR. THE
SURFACE WIND FIELD HAS ALSO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS NOTED BY A
1046Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AND SURFACE OBS FROM THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA. AIR FORCE RECON FOUND 49 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT... WHICH EQUALS ABOUT A 39-KT SURFACE WIND.
HOWEVER...THE ONBOARD METEOROLOGIST ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF
55-60 IN THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 45 KT...BUT IT COULD BE A LITTLE
HIGHER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 330/02 KT. THE FIRST TWO RECON
POSITIONS HAVE COME IN EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITIONS...
AND THE MOST RECENT FIX CAME IN ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
FIRST ONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI AND
MELBOURNE INDICATE LITTLE OVERALL NET MOTION...OTHER PERHAPS A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 06Z AND 12Z INDICATE THAT
FRANKLIN APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF OR WITHIN A
FAIRLY STOUT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. AS RESULT...THERE MAY BE
SOME SLOW ERRATIC MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS MOVES EASTWARD TO THE U.S. EAST COAST AND WEAKENS
THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH OF FRANKLIN. THAT MAY ALLOW FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD AT THAT TIME AND...IF THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING...THEN THE CYCLONE WOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...FRANKLIN
IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH RIDGE
TO THE NORTH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA AND TURN
TOWARD THE WEST. THIS ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS SUGGESTED BY THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS NHC98 AND A9UK...WHICH MAKE A SMALL
LOOP NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THEN TURN FRANKLIN BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 96 HOURS. THE DEEP AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS
HAVE ALSO PERSISTED WITH THEIR PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OF SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN TURNING THE
CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA IN 72-96
HOURS.

THE SHEAR ACROSS FRANKLIN HAS STEADILY WEAKEND THIS MORNING...AND
THE VARIOUS MODELS FORECAST THIS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
36-48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR AS PER THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. IF
FRANKLIN REMAINS STATIONARY EAST OF FLORIDA AND DOES NOT RECURVE AS
FORECAST...THEN THE INTENSITIES AFTER 48 HOURS WOULD LIKELY BE
HIGHER THAN INDICATED.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 26.8N 77.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 27.7N 77.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 29.0N 77.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 29.9N 76.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 30.4N 74.4W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 31.3N 71.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 32.5N 68.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 27/1200Z 34.0N 62.5W 60 KT

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

...FRANKLIN MOVING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
FOR ELEUTHERA...THE ABACOS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THIS WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.7
WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 110 KM... NORTHEAST OF MARSH HARBOR ON
GREAT ABACO ISLAND.

FRANKLIN IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...FRANKLIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. HOWEVER...SINCE
FRANLIN IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM...SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL
POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

FRANKLIN MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...27.4 N... 76.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
NNNN

Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 6


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 22, 2005


...Franklin continues to move northward away from the Bahamas...

at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of the Bahamas has discontinued
all Tropical Storm Warning for the Bahamas.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm
Franklin was located near latitude 27.8 north... longitude 76.7
west or about 100 miles... 160 km... north-northeast of Great
Abaco Island.

Franklin is moving toward the north near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and
this general motion is forecast to continue tonight...with a
gradual turn toward the northeast expected on Saturday. On this
track...Franklin will continue to move away from the northwestern
Bahamas and the Florida East Coast. However...Franklin is a small
tropical storm...so some erratic motion will be possible at times.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles
... 85 km...mainly east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.

Franklin may produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches
over the northernmost Bahamas during the next 12 hours or so.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...27.8 N... 76.7 W. Movement
toward...north near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Stewart


$$

760
WTNT41 KNHC 222058
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

DRY AIR HAS WRAPPED UP THE EAST SIDE AND INTO THE CENTER...WHICH HAS
ERODED THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE INNER CORE. BANDING FEATURES
HAVE ALSO COME AND GONE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND IN THE MELBOURNE RADAR DARA. AROUND 1532Z...AIR FORCE RECON
FOUND 53 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH
EQUALS A 42-43 KT SURFACE WIND...WHILE THE ONBOARD METEOROLOGIST
AGAIN ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 55-60 IN THE SAME AREA. HOWEVER...
THAT CONVECTIVE BAND HAS SINCE DISAPPEARED DUE TO THE DRY AIR...SO
THOSE SURFACE WINDS WERE LIKELY ENHANCED BY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. AS
SUCH...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 45 KT...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE PRESSURE HAS NOT FALLEN BELOW 1007 MB...AND THE CYCLONE
HAS A RAGGED LOOKING APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/08 KT. RECON AND RADAR POSITION ESTIMATES
INDICATE FRANKLIN HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AT A STEADY 8 KT OR SO
SINCE ABOUT 14Z. ACCORDING TO THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THE NHC
MODELS...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN AND ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SPECIAL 18Z
UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND
SHOULD BE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. IF THE
SHORTWAVE IS STRONG ENOUGH...THEN IT MAY ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANKLIN...AND CAPTURE THE CYCLONE AND MOVE
IT AWAY FROM THE U.S. HOWEVER...THE GFS... UKMET...AND THE CANADIAN
MODELS NOW ONLY TAKE FRANKLIN AS FAR NORTH AS 30N LATITUDE IN 36-48
HOURS...AND THEN LEAVE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE...IT WOULD MEAN THAT FRANKLIN WOULD
CEASE TO EXIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THOSE MODELS ALSO MOVE THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 72
HOURS...MUCH LIKE THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS. HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE SHEAR ACROSS FRANKLIN HAS INCREASED FROM THE WEST AGAIN DUE TO
THE OUTFLOW FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
YUCATAN DISTURBANCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES FRANKLIN IS
GETTING PINCHED FROM THE EAST BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWESTWARD. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SLOWER THAN NORMAL INTENSIFICATION
FORECASTS AS PER THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. THE GFDL BRINGS
FRANKLIN UP TO 89 IN 48 HOURS...BUT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE...
ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING WESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM AT THAT TIME.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 27.8N 76.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 28.9N 76.4W 50 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 30.0N 75.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 30.9N 73.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 31.5N 72.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 32.8N 67.6W 60 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z 34.0N 63.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 27/1800Z 37.0N 56.5W 60 KT

000
WTNT31 KNHC 230246
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

...FRANKLIN CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT
145 MILES... 230 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH... 85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM... MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM
THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...28.4 N... 76.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

WTNT41 KNHC 230301
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED NEAR 00Z AND 02Z A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB... DOWN ABOUT 4 MB COMPARED TO
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 53
KT IN A BURST OF CONVECTION JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THESE
DATA... ALONG WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...
SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 45 KT. THE OVERALL
APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE. THE LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE YUCATAN DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS FLORIDA THAT ARE IMPOSING SHEAR ON
FRANKLIN... RESULTING ESSENTIALLY IN HALF OF A TROPICAL STORM...
WITH MOST OF THE WINDS AND CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 45 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS IN A BAND FARTHER
OUT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT ABOUT 50-75 NMI FROM THE CENTER.
THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED TO THE SOUTHEAST ACCORDINGLY.

THE RECON FIXES INDICATE THAT FRANKLIN HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY AND
IS NOW MOVING JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH... WITH ESTIMATED INITIAL
MOTION OF 010/7. FRANKLIN IS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH A SLIGHT
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS JUST ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO SHARPEN WHILE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. LITTLE DOUBT REMAINS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL TURN FRANKLIN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW
FAST FRANKLIN WILL MOVE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NWS MODELS...
GFS AND GFDL... ARE BY FAR THE FASTEST. THE GFS SOLUTION APPEARS
TOO FAST EVEN INITIALLY SINCE IT SHOWS NEARLY AN IMMEDIATE
DECOUPLING OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS... WHICH DOES NOT
SEEM TO YET BE OCCURRING. THE UKMET AND THE NAVY MODELS... NOGAPS
AND GFDN... ARE MUCH SLOWER. IN FACT... THE 18Z NOGAPS IS QUITE A
BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z RUN. THEREFORE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL REMAIN SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR MIGHT ABATE A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
BUT NORTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER AS FRANKIN MOVES
FARTHER NORTH AND THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH COMES OFF THE EAST COAST.
GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION... THE
DEVELOPMENT RATE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED. IN FACT...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS SMALL SIZE... FRANKLIN COULD VERY WELL BECOME
SHEARED APART IN 2-3 DAYS. ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... THE
TROPICAL STORM WILL REACH SUB-27C SSTS ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE... SO
A WEAKENING TREND IS INTRODUCED LATE IN THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES IN BETWEEN
THE SHIPS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 28.4N 76.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 29.5N 75.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 30.7N 74.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 31.5N 72.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 32.2N 69.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 33.5N 65.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 27/0000Z 35.5N 60.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 28/0000Z 38.0N 55.0W 50 KT

Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 8


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 23, 2005



...Franklin moving north-northeastward away from the Bahamas...
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 29.1 north... longitude 75.9 west or about
200 miles... 325 km... north-northeast of Great Abaco Island and
about 695 miles...1120 km...west-southwest of Bermuda.

Franklin is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph
...13 km/hr. A turn to the northeast is expected over the next 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Franklin has become a little better organized overnight and
some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
...110 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.

Repeating the 5 am EDT position...29.1 N... 75.9 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Franklin

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 8


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 23, 2005



Franklin...the storm...not the forecaster...has become a little
better organized overnight. Reports from the Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft a few hours ago indicate that the wind
field has become more symmetric while the pressure continued a slow
but steady fall...to 1001 mb at 05z. The peak 850 mb flight level
winds were 57 kt in the northeast quadrant...which supports a solid
45 kt as the surface estimate.
The reconnaissance fixes indicate that Franklin has turned to the
north-northeast...with an initial motion estimated to be 030/7. The
synoptic environment of the cyclone is complicated...resulting in
considerable uncertainty in both the track and intensity forecasts.
A mid-latitude short-wave trough that extends through the Carolinas
is about to move eastward into the Atlantic. In the short
term...this is expected to force Franklin to turn to the northeast.
However...this trough will also bring considerable vertical shear
with it...and by 36-48 hours...the cyclone will find itself under
an unfavorable upper-level northerly or northwesterly flow. In
fact...water vapor imagery already is showing a restriction of the
upper-level outflow to the north of Franklin. The future track of
Franklin is very much tied to how it responds to this impending
shear...and the model guidance is highly divergent. The GFS
decouples the cyclone's low and mid-level circulations and races a
weak system east-northeastward in the low-level flow. The NOGAPS
and UKMET models maintain a stronger...more vertically connected
system that also moves to the east-northeast but much more slowly.
The GFDL has a rather surprising solution in that it is both
relatively fast with the eastward motion and yet also forecasts
Franklin to attain and then maintain hurricane strength for almost
72 hours.
So what to do with this range of possibilities? Small systems are
frequently not that resistent to shear. The official forecast is
therefore considerably faster than the NOGAPS or UKMET guidance.
However...the GFS is already too fast...so perhaps none of the
individual dynamical models have a good handle on this particular
forecast. The official forecast is a primarily a blend of
continuity from the previous forecast...the shallow BAM...the GUNA
consensus...and the FSU superensemble...and is only coincidentally
close to the GFDL. The forecast track has been shifted somewhat
southward...and does show a close approach to Bermuda in 72 hours.
It is Worth noting however...that some of the largest track errors
occur in high-shear scenarios such as this one.
The center of circulation is well embedded in a small circular area
of deep convection...and earlier reconnaissance data suggested that
the cyclone was getting ready to strengthen. Consequently...the
short-term prospects for intensification are good. However...the
opportunity for development in the Long Run appears limited...with
an increase in shear and a decrease in SSTs seemingly in the
cyclone's future. It is quite possible that little or nothing will
be left of Franklin...the storm...not the forecaster...in 2-3 days.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 23/0900z 29.1n 75.9w 45 kt
12hr VT 23/1800z 30.0n 74.8w 55 kt
24hr VT 24/0600z 30.8n 73.0w 60 kt
36hr VT 24/1800z 31.4n 71.0w 60 kt
48hr VT 25/0600z 31.8n 69.0w 55 kt
72hr VT 26/0600z 32.5n 65.0w 50 kt
96hr VT 27/0600z 35.0n 60.5w 45 kt
120hr VT 28/0600z 39.0n 56.0w 40 kt

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

...FRANKLIN STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR ABOUT
245 MILES... 390 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND AND
ABOUT 635 MILES...1025 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND FRANKLIN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR ON
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
...130 KM..MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...29.4 N... 75.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT41 KNHC 231459
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT INDICATE FRANKLIN
HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS STRENGTHENED...POSSIBLY
EVEN TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. A DROPSONDE REPORT AT 1337Z MEASURED
SURFACE WINDS OF 59 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WHERE THE FLIGHT
CREW HAS BEEN ESTIMATING 60-65 KT WINDS...EVEN THOUGH THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS STILL ABOVE 1000 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT THE INTENSITY COULD BE
HIGHER SINCE FRANKLIN IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF MUCH HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE SURFACE PRESSURES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/08...BASED ON THE PAST 9 HOURS OF
RECON FIXES. THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE COLD CDO CLOUD SHIELD AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THAN WHAT MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW
APPROACHING THE U.S. EAST COAST HAS MOST OF ITS ENERGY FROM NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY 5-10 WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
...EXCLUDING THE MUCH FASTER GFS AND GFDL MODELS...NOW SLOWS DOWN
FRANKLIN THROUGH 72 HOURS AND EITHER DISSIPATED THE CYCLONE OR
WAITS FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PICK UP THE CYCLONE AND
ACCELERATE IT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. JUST ONE PROBLEM...ALL OF
THE MODELS...TO SOME DEGREE...MOVE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SLOWLY
BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS
SIMILAR TO THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS. GIVEN THAT FRANKLIN IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
FROM 06Z...AND THAT ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY BY 72 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK
HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...OR SOUTH...OF AND A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GUNS
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FRANKLIN REMAINS RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT WITH A
WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WIND FIELD. AS SUCH...SMALL CHANGES IN THE
CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION CAN RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
INTENSITY. GIVEN THE TENACITY OF THIS CYCLONE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS THAT HAS DEFIED FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR...IT APPEARS
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY GO ON AND BECOME A HURRICANE WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE ABOVE 995 MB IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...INCRESING NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD INDUCE SOME SLOW WEAKENING.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 29.4N 75.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 30.1N 73.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 30.7N 72.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 31.1N 70.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 31.5N 68.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 32.3N 66.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 27/1200Z 33.0N 63.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 28/1200Z 35.0N 59.0W 40 KT

$$

000
WTNT31 KNHC 232037
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

...FRANKLIN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST OR ABOUT
295 MILES... 475 KM... NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND AND ABOUT
585 MILES... 945 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WHILE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...FRANKLIN COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
...130 KM...MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...29.9 N... 74.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

000
WTNT41 KNHC 232107
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

FRANKLIN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THE LAST
RECON REPORT AROUND 17Z. AN 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 63 KT WAS
REPORTED ABOUT 50 NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER AT 1543Z...AND SUBSEQUENT
DROPSONDE WIND PROFLIES ELSEWHERE SUGGEST THAT THE STANDARD 80
PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR MAY BE TOO HIGH AND THAT USING 100 PERCENT
MAY BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE. GIVEN THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD NOT
FALLEN BELOW 1000 MB ALL DAY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
MAINTAINED AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED TO
THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE RECON WIND AND DROPSONDE DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/08. FRANKLIN HAS BEEN MOVING
STEADILY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS
OR SO AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE NEW 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CREATES
SOMETHING OF A QUANDARY WITH THE TRACK FORECAST. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IS FORECAST BY ALL THE
MODELS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OF FRANKLIN AND LEAVE AT LEAST
A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND BY 36-48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND THEN DRIFT SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD BY 96 HOURS...
WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. IF FRANKLIN
REMAINS INTACT AT 72 HOURS...THEN THE SOUTHWARD MOTION IS QUITE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GUNS AND GUNA MODELS.

FRANKLIN COULD STILL BECOME A 65-KT HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS BEFORE INCREASING NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR STARTS TO
AFFECT THE CYCLONE. EVEN IF THE CYCLONE DOES TURN SOUTHWARD...THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 72 HOURS WHEN THE
200 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND A SMALL ANTICYCLONE MOVES
ACROSS THE SYSTEM.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 29.9N 74.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 30.4N 73.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 30.8N 71.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 31.2N 69.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 31.4N 68.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 32.1N 65.3W 50 KT
96HR VT 27/1800Z 33.5N 62.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 28/1800Z 35.0N 59.5W 40 KT

WTNT41 KNHC 240255
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF
FRANKLIN ARE BECOMING DETACHED. THERE IS A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
...RESEMBLING AN EYEWALL...MARKING A WELL DEFINED MIDDLE LEVEL
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD LINES SHOW A SURFACE CENTER
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS CENTER LOCATION IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE LATEST RECON FIX. THIS DECOUPLING HAS BEEN THE SCENARIO
FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS...MAINLY BY THE GFS... DURING THE PAST
DAY OR SO.

THE CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE HAS NOT IMPROVED AND IN FACT...IT
LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER TODAY...AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE
IS ABOUT 1003 MB. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS. THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FRANKLIN IS BRINGING STRONG
SHEAR...SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NO LONGER INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS THAT THE
UPPER-TROUGH WILL BYPASS FRANKLIN QUICKLY...LEAVING WEAKER SHEAR
AND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

FRANKLIN IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. FRANKLIN COULD ACCELERATE A LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE STEERING FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. THEREAFTER...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AT
LONGER RANGES...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FRANKLIN AND THE
CYCLONE SHOULD THEN INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AGAIN. ALL THESE
SMALL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM
THE UNITED STATES.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 30.3N 72.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 30.9N 71.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 31.5N 69.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 32.0N 68.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 32.5N 67.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 33.5N 64.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 35.0N 61.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 29/0000Z 38.5N 56.0W 30 KT

000
WTNT31 KNHC 240240
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

...FRANKLIN A LITTLE WEAKER...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT
500 MILES... 800 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
...130 KM FROM THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...30.3 N... 72.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$