763
ABNT20 KNHC 220236
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA. WHILE PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL LIKELY
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER WHEN IT IS
EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

FORECASTER KNABB

:silly:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 30 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GREAT
ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER LAND...BUT CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SOME POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

Gert Gert Gert...Come one Gert Gert Gert come on!!! :silly:

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20050722 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050722 1800 050723 0600 050723 1800 050724 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.7N 88.3W 19.0N 90.6W 20.2N 93.0W 21.3N 95.2W
BAMM 17.7N 88.3W 18.6N 90.6W 19.6N 93.1W 20.5N 95.3W
A98E 17.7N 88.3W 18.8N 90.1W 19.9N 91.9W 21.1N 93.9W
LBAR 17.7N 88.3W 18.8N 90.4W 20.2N 93.0W 21.6N 95.7W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 34KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050724 1800 050725 1800 050726 1800 050727 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.2N 97.4W 23.3N 101.2W 23.2N 104.7W 22.8N 108.3W
BAMM 21.4N 97.5W 22.9N 101.0W 23.5N 104.1W 23.7N 107.4W
A98E 22.6N 96.1W 25.9N 100.5W 28.5N 102.5W 29.4N 102.9W
LBAR 23.3N 98.4W 27.0N 102.0W 29.3N 102.8W 30.9N 103.4W
SHIP 53KTS 62KTS 68KTS 70KTS
DSHP 44KTS 29KTS 27KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.7N LONCUR = 88.3W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.5N LONM12 = 86.6W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 15.2N LONM24 = 84.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....


By tomarrow morning expect this to get back into the BOC. Then I expect development. Can we say Gert...I think so.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 222125
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF GREAT
ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO... AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... BRINGING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE WAVE
MOVES OVER LAND... BUT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP TOMORROW
OR SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB

080
WHXX01 KWBC 230033
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20050723 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050723 0000 050723 1200 050724 0000 050724 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 89.2W 19.5N 91.5W 20.4N 93.9W 21.2N 96.2W
BAMM 18.3N 89.2W 19.2N 91.5W 20.2N 93.8W 21.2N 96.1W
A98E 18.3N 89.2W 19.4N 91.0W 20.6N 92.9W 21.9N 94.9W
LBAR 18.3N 89.2W 19.3N 91.5W 20.5N 94.1W 21.9N 96.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050725 0000 050726 0000 050727 0000 050728 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.0N 98.5W 22.5N 102.1W 21.7N 105.2W 20.9N 108.5W
BAMM 22.2N 98.1W 23.9N 101.6W 24.7N 104.0W 25.0N 106.6W
A98E 23.3N 97.4W 27.2N 101.8W 29.9N 103.3W 31.3N 102.0W
LBAR 23.5N 99.6W 26.8N 103.2W 29.5N 104.4W 31.3N 104.3W
SHIP 51KTS 61KTS 68KTS 73KTS
DSHP 43KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.3N LONCUR = 89.2W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 17.1N LONM12 = 87.4W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 15.9N LONM24 = 85.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

10:30 TWO:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY.

799
WHXX01 KWBC 230612
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20050723 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050723 0600 050723 1800 050724 0600 050724 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.0N 89.6W 20.1N 91.7W 21.0N 93.8W 21.9N 96.0W
BAMM 19.0N 89.6W 20.2N 91.8W 21.3N 93.9W 22.5N 96.1W
A98E 19.0N 89.6W 20.2N 91.0W 21.3N 92.7W 22.4N 94.7W
LBAR 19.0N 89.6W 20.0N 91.5W 21.2N 93.8W 22.5N 96.5W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050725 0600 050726 0600 050727 0600 050728 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.7N 97.9W 23.8N 101.1W 24.2N 103.4W 24.8N 105.9W
BAMM 23.8N 97.9W 26.2N 100.9W 27.9N 102.4W 29.2N 103.8W
A98E 23.6N 96.8W 27.3N 100.6W 30.1N 101.8W 31.9N 100.3W
LBAR 24.1N 99.0W 27.4N 102.4W 30.5N 103.2W 33.7N 102.2W
SHIP 58KTS 67KTS 73KTS 75KTS
DSHP 51KTS 29KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.0N LONCUR = 89.6W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 17.7N LONM12 = 88.3W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 16.5N LONM24 = 86.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230902
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GREAT
ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO HONDURAS...BELIZE...
GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A NOAA RESEARCH MISSION IN
THE WAVE OVERNIGHT INDICATED THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS WINDS TO NEAR 35
MPH IN A FEW SQUALLS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATER TODAY...WHERE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR PERHAPS A TROPICAL STORM TO DEVELOP. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN (AL072005) ON 20050723 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050723 1800 050724 0600 050724 1800 050725 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.3N 92.9W 20.1N 95.1W 20.8N 97.4W 21.3N 99.2W
BAMM 19.3N 92.9W 20.0N 95.1W 20.6N 97.4W 21.4N 99.3W
A98E 19.3N 92.9W 19.9N 94.6W 20.7N 96.5W 21.8N 98.4W
LBAR 19.3N 92.9W 19.9N 95.0W 20.9N 97.6W 22.1N 100.6W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050725 1800 050726 1800 050727 1800 050728 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.5N 100.7W 20.7N 103.3W 19.7N 105.4W 20.1N 107.6W
BAMM 22.1N 100.8W 22.6N 103.3W 22.8N 105.0W 24.0N 106.8W
A98E 22.9N 100.8W 25.2N 104.6W 25.8N 106.5W 26.6N 107.9W
LBAR 23.4N 103.2W 26.5N 106.9W 28.8N 108.3W 30.9N 109.6W
SHIP 40KTS 48KTS 57KTS 62KTS
DSHP 26KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.3N LONCUR = 92.9W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 18.6N LONM12 = 91.1W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 17.9N LONM24 = 88.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

WONT41 KNHC 231907
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

...SEVENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMING OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE...

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER DEFINED. SINCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED NEAR THE BROAD CENTER...ADVISORIES ON 25-KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN WILL BE INITIATED AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z. A NOAA
RESEARCH AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY RELEASING DROPSONDES IN THE AREA...
WHICH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...MOST LIKELY NORTH OF PUNTA EL
LAGARTO.

FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT32 KNHC 232031
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH ISSUED FOR EASTERN MEXICO...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA
NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO NORTHWARD TO
LA CRUZ.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST OR ABOUT
180 MILES... 290 KM... WEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO AND ABOUT 295
MILES... 475 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH
... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION...AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED...IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE
EMILY.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...19.4 N... 93.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT42 KNHC 232053
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A
NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE LARGE DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. DURING
THE PAST HALF-HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42055 REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF
23 KT ABOUT 150 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER...WHILE A DROPSONDE
INSTRUMENT JUST NORTH OF MERIDA REPORTED A SURFACE WIND NEAR 30 KT.
WHILE THIS LATTER REPORT WAS WITHIN THE OUTFLOW OF A CLUSTER OF
LAND-BASED THUNDERSTORMS...OTHER NEARBY DROPSONDE REPORTS INDICATE
WINDS OF 30-35 KT AT 925-850 MB. THIS WIND DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST
25 KT AS AN INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 285/05. THE INNER-CORE
WIND FIELD AND CIRCULATION ARE RATHER BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED...SO
PINPOINTING AN EXACT CENTER IS DIFFICULT AT BEST. HOWEVER...12Z
UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE LARGE-SCALE DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE IS
SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
EAST-WEST FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
THE DEPRESSION MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD
MOTION...IGNORING THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES THAT MAY OCCUR AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER...UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
LOW...AND SSTS ARE QUITE WARM...AROUND 29-30C. THIS WOULD NORMALLY
FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION
WILL ONLY HAVE ABOUT 36 HOURS OVER WATER BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND.
THEREFORE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TURNS OUT TO BE TOO LOW AND/OR THE CYCLONE MOVES
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST...THEN A STRONGER TROPICAL STORM
COULD MAKE LANDFALL.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 19.4N 93.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 19.9N 94.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 20.4N 96.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 21.1N 97.3W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 21.9N 98.8W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 26/1800Z 22.5N 101.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
96HR VT 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY RAINS TO EASTERN MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO...AND A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO
ROJO NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...350 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE
EMILY.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...19.5 N... 93.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT32 KNHC 240245
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NORTHWARD TO
LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA
TO LA CRUZ.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE
94.1 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES... 225 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF
VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 230 MILES... 375 KM...EAST-SOUTH EAST OF
TUXPAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL IN MEXICO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE
EMILY.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.7 N... 94.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT42 KNHC 240251
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...CURRENTLY IN A TROPICAL
CYCLONE GENESIS MISSION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH WIND GUSTS OF
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL DEFINED
INNER CORE YET. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS AND WITH
LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS ALONG THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE...IT IS
FORECAST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A
TROPICAL STORM.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS...
SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING INLAND OVER MEXICO.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 19.7N 94.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 20.2N 95.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 21.0N 97.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 22.0N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 100.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Sadly, More Woes for Mexico's already stricken places... :huh:

Yes....This hurricane season is going for the record. Should be rather interesting if we can beat 1995,1933. This came to become a depression why not a weak tropical storm. So come on at lesat a weak tropical stom so it can count.

The winds are increasing to 27 knots from 17 to 19 knot gust. While the system is moving away from this buoy. I think the northeast wind field is expanding some.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055


:silly:

Damn,,, that is one beautiful piece of equipment... I work with a guy that used to service these floating sources of information... Depending on the level of maintenance required at any given time, He had been dropped off on those Floaters and left for hours... If he finished the task before they returned, it got pretty wierd out there... One time he told me that the weather got rough and he had to really hold on to stay on the Bouy... Needless to say, he doesn't do that anymore... :rolleyes:

766
WTNT42 KNHC 240548
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GERT SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPGRADE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN TO A TROPICAL STORM...AND PROVIDE A COMPLETE
ADVISORY PACKAGE INDICATING SUCH.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON
BOARD A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
STRENGTHENED AND BECOME TROPICAL STORM GERT. WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR...THE SFMR REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 36 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR INTENSITY OF GERT. THIS SPECIAL
ADVISORY UPDATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND THE 34 KT WIND RADII.

GERT IS THE EARLIEST 7TH NAMED STORM ON RECORD...BREAKING THE OLD
RECORD OF AUGUST 7TH. THE MEAN DATE OF FORMATION BEING SEPTEMBER
23RD.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0600Z 19.8N 94.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 20.2N 95.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 21.0N 97.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 22.0N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 100.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED


Really if Mexico wents to shoot at our BP. Then I don't have any mercy!!!

900
WTNT32 KNHC 240552
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

...SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...

REPORTS FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS STRENGTHENED AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA TO LA
CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES... 170 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 195
MILES... 310 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GERT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE
EMILY.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...19.8 N... 94.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Tropical Storm Gert Advisory Number 4


Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on July 24, 2005



...Gert re-organizing north of the previous track...
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Palma Sola to La
Cruz. Tropical storm conditions are also possible north of the
warning area as far north as La Pesca.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

Data from a NOAA aircraft indicate that the center of Gert has
reformed north of the previous center. At 4 am CDT...0900z...the
center of Tropical Storm Gert was located near latitude 21.0
north... longitude 95.4 west or about 180 miles... 290 km...
east-southeast of Tampico Mexico.

Gert is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph
...17 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Gert is expected
to reach the coastline within the warning area this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the day today prior to
landfall.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
... 95 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.

Total rainfall amounts of 4 to 7 inches...with isolated amounts up
to 10 inches over mountainous terrain...are possible across eastern
Mexico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides...especially in areas previously affected by Hurricane
Emily.
Repeating the 4 am CDT position...21.0 N... 95.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 7 am CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 10 am CDT.

Forecaster Franklin

000
WTNT42 KNHC 240838
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

A SLEW OF DROPSONDES FROM A NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH
MISSION IN GERT INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
REFORMED ABOUT 60 NMI NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THIS NEW CENTER
IS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COLDEST CONVECTION...AND WHILE THE
DROPSONDE DATA WITHIN THIS CONVECTION HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY
STRENGTHENING YET...IN FACT THE WINDS AROUND THE NEW CENTER ARE
QUITE LIGHT...THIS IMPROVEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE
SUGGESTS THAT SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY IN THE 12-18 HOURS
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON
THE EARLIER STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE OBSERVATIONS.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK EXCEPT TO ADJUST
IT NORTHWARD TO ACCOMODATE THE NEW INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/9...AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THIS MOTION PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

ATTEMPTS TO COORDINATE WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO AN EXTENSION OF
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL...BUT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PALMA SOLA TO LA PESCA.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM
GERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER AFFECTED BY EMILY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 21.0N 95.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 21.4N 96.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 22.0N 98.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/1800Z 22.8N 99.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

4 A.M. CDT 7/24/2005 TROPICAL STORM GERT UPDATE #3

This is an independent product

Gert is becoming better organized and has reformed to the north. Greatest threat remains heavy rainfall and flooding.

NWHHC now recommends a Tropicla Storm Warning from Martinez de la Torre to Aldana, Mexico. As always, this is only a recommendation. The official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or local emergency management officials.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Gert is located near 21.0N and 95.4W. This places the center about 180 miles ESE of Tampico, Mexico. The motion is to the WNW near 11 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue, bringing the system inland near the Tampico area sometime late tomorrow.

Maximum winds have increased to near 45 m.p.h. based upon aircraft SFMR data. The pressure is 1011mb. Some additional intensification is likely prior to the center crossing the coast.

Next Update: 7 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

Tropical Storm Gert Intermediate Advisory Number 4a


Statement as of 7:00 am CDT on July 24, 2005



...Gert is poorly organized...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Palma Sola to La
Cruz. Tropical storm conditions are also possible north of the
warning area as far north as La Pesca.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 7 am CDT...1200z...the broad and poorly-defined center of
Tropical Storm Gert was estimated near latitude 21.1 north...
longitude 95.8 west or about 155 miles... 250 km...east-southeast
of Tampico Mexico.

Gert is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph
...17 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Gert is expected
to reach the coastline within the warning area this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
... 95 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Total rainfall amounts of 4 to 7 inches...with isolated amounts up
to 10 inches over mountainous terrain...are possible across eastern
Mexico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides...especially in areas previously affected by Hurricane
Emily.

Repeating the 7 am CDT position...21.1 N... 95.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
10 am CDT.

Forecaster Pasch

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

...GERT REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT COULD STILL STRENGTHEN BEFORE
LANDFALL...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM... SOUTHEAST OF
TAMPICO MEXICO.

GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE TRACK THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
... 140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE
EMILY.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...21.1 N... 96.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

...GERT APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD
TO LA PESCA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 165 KM... SOUTHEAST OF
TAMPICO MEXICO.

GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
... 140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE
EMILY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...21.4 N... 96.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

000
WTNT42 KNHC 241429
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE BEEN FLYING BACK AND FORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WHERE THE CENTER IS SUSPECTED TO BE LOCATED...BUT
SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO FIND A DEFINITE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. RATHER...THE DATA FROM THE PLANE SUGGEST A BROAD AREA
OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE AIRCRAFT WINDS ALSO
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE CENTERS...ONE NEAR THE ADVISORY
POSITION AND A SECOND NEAR THE OLD TRACK...I.E. FARTHER SOUTH.
SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DATA ARE CERTAINLY NOT CONCLUSIVE...I WILL
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE ADVISORY
LOCATION IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER ESTIMATE
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. GERT IS IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...
AND IF THE CIRCULATION BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...THE STORM COULD
STRENGTHEN JUST BEFORE REACHING THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 285/8. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF GERT SHOULD STEER THE STORM GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE ONE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM
GERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER AFFECTED BY EMILY...WHICH
WOULD POSE AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 21.1N 96.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 21.7N 97.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 22.3N 98.7W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0000Z 22.7N 100.0W 25 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED


$$

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

...GERT NEARING THE COAST...BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD
TO LA PESCA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES... 105 KM... SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST
IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE
EMILY.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...21.6 N... 97.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$
NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

IN ADDITION TO THIS MORNING'S RECON MISSION...AN EARLIER TRMM
OVERPASS WAS ALSO INCONCLUSIVE ABOUT GERT HAVING A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR
35 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS DECENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...BUT THERE IS
NOW ONLY A VERY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING
BEFORE LANDFALL.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/9. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GERT
SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...BRINGING THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY OR
THIS EVENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWS THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
RAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM GERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER
AFFECTED BY EMILY...WHICH WOULD POSE AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 21.6N 97.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 22.1N 98.2W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1800Z 22.7N 99.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 26/0600Z 23.0N 101.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
NNNN

463
WTNT62 KNHC 242239
TCUAT2
TROPICAL STORM GERT TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
640 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON A RESEARCH MISSION
INDICATE THAT GERT HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST OF MEXICO. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 1007 MB AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH.


FORECASTER BEVEN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

...BROAD CENTER OF GERT NEARING THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE VICINITY OF
TAMPICO...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD
TO LA PESCA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF TAMPICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON A RESEARCH MISSION
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 70
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE
TO INVESTIGATE GERT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE
EMILY.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...21.8 N... 97.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT32 KNHC 250235
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

...CENTER OF GERT MOVES INLAND JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO...HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER EASTERN MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD
TO LA PESCA. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON MONDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST OR ABOUT 20
MILES... 30 KM...SOUTHWEST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER OF GERT FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY OVER WATER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE
EMILY.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...22.0 N... 98.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

KNHC 250236
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...
ALONG WITH SATELLITE...INDICATE THAT GERT WAS STARTING TO INTENSIFY
AS IT MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 0000Z. WHILE THE CENTER STAYED
BROAD...THE NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AT
11000 FT AT 2053Z...AND THE AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED 47 KT AT 850
MB ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS AROUND 00Z. THE AIR FORCE PLANE COULD NOT
QUITE REACH THE CENTER...BUT EXTRAPOLATED A PRESSURE OF 1006 MB
JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS DATA IS THE BASIS FOR THE LANDFALL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT AND 1005 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10. GERT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TRACK ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG LOW-MID/LEVEL RIDGE UNTIL THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO IN 24-36 HR.

IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
RAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM GERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER
AFFECTED BY EMILY...WHICH WOULD POSE AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 22.0N 98.1W 40 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 25/1200Z 22.5N 99.3W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 26/0000Z 23.1N 100.9W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
36HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTNT32 KNHC 250536
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2005

...GERT WEAKENS AT IT MOVES INLAND...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD
TO LA PESCA. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS
MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED
INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.6 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES... 75 KM...WEST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER OF GERT FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. GERT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY OVER WATER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE
EMILY.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...22.3 N... 98.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTNT32 KNHC 250833
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2005

...GERT WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION ALTHOUGH RAIN THREAT CONTINUES...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 99.1 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES... 125 KM... WEST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR... AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 35 MPH... 55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...22.4 N... 99.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$

000
WTNT42 KNHC 250836
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

TAMPICO RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF GERT CONTINUES
MOVING INLAND...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 280/10.
THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER DISSIPATES
WITHIN 24 HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO. IT SHOULD BE
STRESSED THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RAINFALL...
WHICH COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0900Z 22.4N 99.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 22.7N 100.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

000
WTNT32 KNHC 251432
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2005

...GERT DISSIPATING...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST OR ABOUT
175 MILES... 280 KM... WEST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH
...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...GERT OR ITS REMNANT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GERT IS DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...22.6 N...100.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GERT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

000
WTNT42 KNHC 251438
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS DISSIPATING OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL MEXICO...SO THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON GERT.

GERT'S REMNANT STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...PARTICULARLY
IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM EMILY.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 22.6N 100.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 102.5W 15 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$