WHXX01 KWBC 040038
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20050804 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050804 0000 050804 1200 050805 0000 050805 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.3N 29.3W 12.7N 31.4W 13.2N 33.8W 13.8N 36.5W
BAMM 12.3N 29.3W 12.7N 31.5W 13.0N 34.0W 13.5N 36.7W
A98E 12.3N 29.3W 12.6N 31.4W 13.0N 33.8W 13.6N 36.5W
LBAR 12.3N 29.3W 12.5N 31.7W 13.0N 34.7W 13.8N 37.9W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050806 0000 050807 0000 050808 0000 050809 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 39.0W 16.0N 43.2W 17.5N 46.8W 19.8N 49.9W
BAMM 14.1N 39.3W 15.1N 43.6W 16.7N 46.8W 19.4N 49.4W
A98E 13.8N 39.4W 14.9N 44.3W 15.2N 49.2W 15.1N 53.6W
LBAR 14.4N 41.4W 15.6N 48.1W 15.0N 53.2W 19.1N 51.3W
SHIP 52KTS 61KTS 65KTS 65KTS
DSHP 52KTS 61KTS 65KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 29.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 27.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 24.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

If it forms it will be the I storm. In that is normally the power house of the season. :silly:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 040212
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HARVEY...LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA/BERG


Bs it is oreganized now for the upgrade. How much do they need?

825
WHXX01 KWBC 040653
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20050804 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050804 0600 050804 1800 050805 0600 050805 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.5N 31.3W 12.8N 33.1W 13.1N 35.2W 13.7N 37.3W
BAMM 12.5N 31.3W 12.7N 32.9W 12.8N 34.9W 13.2N 36.9W
A98E 12.5N 31.3W 12.7N 33.5W 13.0N 36.0W 13.0N 38.7W
LBAR 12.5N 31.3W 12.7N 33.6W 13.3N 36.2W 14.1N 39.1W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050806 0600 050807 0600 050808 0600 050809 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.3N 39.3W 15.7N 42.6W 17.4N 45.9W 19.9N 48.9W
BAMM 13.8N 38.9W 15.5N 42.4W 17.3N 46.3W 19.3N 49.7W
A98E 12.4N 41.3W 12.1N 46.1W 11.0N 50.6W 9.9N 54.5W
LBAR 14.6N 42.0W 16.1N 48.4W 16.5N 53.4W 15.6N 55.3W
SHIP 54KTS 62KTS 65KTS 67KTS
DSHP 54KTS 62KTS 65KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 31.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 29.2W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 27.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

000
ABNT20 KNHC 040859
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HARVEY...LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

WTNT 22 KNGU 041200
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 041200Z AUG 05//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 33.0W TO 13.0N 38.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED VICINITY 12.0N 32.0W IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. SCATTEROMETRY INDICATES A SURFACE
CIRCULATION NEAR 12.0N 32.0W WITH WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER. THIS CIRCULATION HAS PERSISTED FOR 24 HOURS AND HAS A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF ABOUT 5 MB LESS THAN ITS SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. CONDITIONS IN
THE UPPER ATMOSHPERE ARE BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 200 MB, WEAK WIND SHEAR AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYZED
FROM SATELLITE DATA IS 82F(28C). SYSTEM MOVEMTN FORECAST IS WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 051200Z.

11:30am TWO:

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 575 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SATELLITE
IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE
FORMING AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

000
WHXX01 KWBC 041845
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE (AL092005) ON 20050804 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050804 1800 050805 0600 050805 1800 050806 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.6N 34.0W 12.9N 36.1W 13.2N 38.0W 13.4N 39.7W
BAMM 12.6N 34.0W 12.9N 35.6W 13.3N 37.1W 13.8N 38.5W
A98E 12.6N 34.0W 12.8N 36.5W 12.8N 39.2W 12.4N 41.9W
LBAR 12.6N 34.0W 13.0N 36.5W 13.8N 39.0W 14.4N 41.6W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050806 1800 050807 1800 050808 1800 050809 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.5N 41.1W 14.3N 43.8W 16.9N 46.4W 20.5N 49.2W
BAMM 14.4N 39.9W 16.5N 43.3W 19.3N 47.4W 22.1N 51.4W
A98E 11.7N 44.4W 12.0N 48.4W 12.0N 52.2W 12.5N 55.4W
LBAR 14.9N 44.5W 15.9N 50.6W 16.8N 55.8W 19.8N 52.5W
SHIP 53KTS 66KTS 74KTS 76KTS
DSHP 53KTS 66KTS 74KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 34.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 31.4W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 29.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

766
WTNT34 KNHC 042029
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU AUG 04 2005

...AND YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 34.5 WEST OR ABOUT 695 MILES...1115 KM...WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...12.7 N... 34.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA


$$

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 04, 2005



yes...indeed we have another tropical depression in the deep
tropics. Satellite images and earlier Quikscat data indicate that
the area area of low pressure associated with the tropical wave in
the far eastern Atlantic has become a little better organized and
can be classified as a tropical depression. The system is large
with plenty of convective bands...excellent outflow and a burst of
convection near the alleged center. The depression is still in its
early formative stage and the center is difficult to locate. In
fact...it could reform anywhere within the larger circulation. This
makes tracking the system highly uncertain...but the best estimate
of the initial motion is 280 degrees at 10 knots. The depression is
embedded within the easterly flow around the subtropical ridge and
it should continue to move between the west and west-northwest
through 5 days...gradually gaining latitude. Now that we have a
depression...the 18z global model runs will probably give US better
guidance tonight.

The intensity forecast mirrors the SHIPS model which brings the
depression to hurricane status by 72 hours. This seems reasonable
since the shear is forecast to remain less than 10 knots along the
forecast track of the cyclone.

Forecaster Avila


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 04/2100z 12.7n 34.5w 25 kt
12hr VT 05/0600z 13.0n 36.2w 30 kt
24hr VT 05/1800z 13.5n 38.5w 40 kt
36hr VT 06/0600z 14.0n 40.5w 45 kt
48hr VT 06/1800z 14.5n 42.5w 55 kt
72hr VT 07/1800z 15.5n 46.0w 65 kt
96hr VT 08/1800z 17.5n 49.0w 75 kt
120hr VT 09/1800z 20.0n 53.0w 75 kt

Tropical depression 9
7pm pst/10pm est
8-4-2005

First cape verde depression of the season forms....


Over the last 3 hours, the LLC has become better defined. With now a central core of convection forming right over it. Earlier it was mostly a broad LLC. With its mid level discoupled to the west. Overall tonight everything is now moving around one center.

Data out of Cimss, shows that this system has a strong upper level high. With wind shear vaules of 5 knots near the center. While faning out to 20 knots near the edges. Which is almost a perfect pattern for tropical cyclone development. A outflow Jet to the northwest around 25 north/40 west, has formed with 40 knot shear. In which case if the system can stay south of 15 to 17 north should start enhancing outflow even more. Some time between Friday afternoon or Saturday morning. The outflow set up is almost perfect.

What is causing this system not to oreganize is the SAL=Saharan air layer. Which is very thick to the northeast of the center. In even to the west is only favable enough to allow this to hold its own. If it was not for the perfect outflow pattern/overall oreganizion of the cyclone. The seasurface temperatures/Tchp which are at record levels with perfect outflow(Low shear) should help to off set some of this effect. Also the SAL will not be quite as unfavable as it moves westward.

In the SST/TCHP should only get better over time. With low shear expected for the cyclone. So a tropical storm should be expect with an the next 12 hours. Also the ship model make this system a tropical storm by 24 hours. Then a hurricane by 72 hours. In which might be a little fast with the hurricane.

Track

The models show that Harveys, should pull out over the next 48 hours. The hurricane/Global models been having a hard time this year with forecasting to far to the right over this area. In it looks to be true for this system. The Hurricane models have shifted to the west over the last 12 hours. The Gfs is showing a fairly strong high to the north for the next 30 hours. But it shows a 290 to 300 degree movement or west-northwest over that time frame. The Gfs has also shifted greatly to the left. The 18z Gfdl shows a west-northwest movement going just north of the Islands at 126 hours. It has also shifted left with its lastest 00z plots a few degrees. Gfs 00z is slower making it north of the islands by 138 hours. Then it turns it more to the west around 138 to 144 hours. In which would take a track close to Frances of last year.


But you have to remember that the ridge to the north will likely be stronger then shown. In the models are moving leftward with each new run. So I'm keeping it on a westward track for the next 24 to 36 hours fellowed by a west-northwest track. This system will likely be a threat to the northeast leeward islands by 128 to 136 hours. I'm thinking it will skim the northern end making its landfall around 18.5/62 west. Then moving into Purto rica by 24 hours after. There is a chance for a hurricane.


On quickscats there is a area of 25 to 30 knot winds. In because of the oreganizion. I'm setting it at 30 knots...


Now 30 knots
6 30 knots
12 35 knots
24 35 knots
36 45 knots
48 50 knots
60 55 knots
72 60 knots
84 65 knots
96 65 knots
108 70 knots
120 80 knots
136 50 knots landfall on pirto rica.

Forecaster Matthew

670
WTNT44 KNHC 050231
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE THIS EVENING. AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 2245Z AND SHORTWAVE IR
IMAGERY FROM METEOSAT-8 SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE CENTER IS
ELONGATED NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...WITH SATELLITE FIXES
FROM TAFB AND SAB FALLING NEAR THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST END. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MEAN CENTER IS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ADVISORY POSITION. OVERPASSES FROM THE TRMM AND AQUA SATELLITES
LATER TONIGHT MAY HELP RESOLVE THE ISSUE. DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
25 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/11. THE DEPRESSION
IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. AFTER
THAT...THE CYCLONE COULD BE APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN
THE MID-ATLANTIC...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 18Z GFS MODEL
DID NOT APPEAR TO INITIALIZE THE CYCLONE WELL...WHILE THE 18Z
NOGAPS MODEL DISSIPATED THE SYSTEM IN LESS THAN 72 HR.

LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THUS...THE BIGGEST CONTROL ON THE
INTENSITY SHOULD BE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER 27C WATER...WHILE REPORTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION SHOW 26C WATER. COMBINE THIS
WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION AND THE INITIAL INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
SOMEWHAT SLOW...PERHAPS EVEN SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 28C WATER BY 72 HR...WHICH
COULD ALLOW MORE STRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...
ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK WOULD DELAY THE ARRIVAL OVER
WARMER WATER AND SLOW INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT STRONGER
THAN...THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE WIND RADII FORECAST AT 72 HR HAS BEEN REVISED BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY AND THE BROAD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THE DEPRESSION.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 13.0N 35.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 13.3N 36.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 13.7N 38.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 14.3N 41.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 14.9N 43.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 16.5N 47.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 18.5N 50.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 10/0000Z 20.5N 54.0W 75 KT

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

THE CENTER OF TD-9 REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE POSITION IS ABOUT 60 NMI NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITIONS AND
FORECAST TRACKS BASED ON MICROWAVE AND NIGHTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A 05/0411Z AQUA OVERPASS CLEARLY INDICATED THE BROAD
CIRCULATION WAS BETWEEN 14N AND 15N LATITUDE. A MORE SOUTHERLY
POSITION CLOSER TO 14N WAS CHOSEN SINCE THIS WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE
DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER MAY HAVE
TO BE ADJUSTED FARTHER NORTH ONCE VISIBLE IMAGERY IS AVAILABLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/11...BASED ON THE
OVERALL MOTION OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. TD-9 IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE BERMUDA RIDGE THAT IS
BEING CREATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N 42W...AND AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT THE WEAKNESS WILL SLOWLY FILL IN AS THE LOW WEAKENS...
WHICH WILL ACT TO FORCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS. IN THE DAY 4 AND 5 TIME PERIODS...THE MODELS
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF
MODELS TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD ANOTHER DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WHEREAS THE GFS AND GFDL MOVE THE STORM
MORE WESTWARD. GIVEN THE HIGH ZONAL FLOW FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE U.S. AND NORTH ATLANTIC...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE
TOWARD THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.

ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...LESS THAN 5
KT...THE HIGHER LATITUDE INITIAL POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK KEEPS
THE CYCLONE OVER COOLER SSTS UNTIL 72 HOURS. AFTERWARDS. GRADUALLY
INCREASING SSTS ABOVE 28C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR.ON.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 14.4N 36.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 15.1N 37.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 15.9N 39.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 16.7N 41.6W 40 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 17.7N 44.4W 45 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 19.0N 48.6W 55 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 20.5N 53.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 10/0600Z 22.0N 58.5W 75 KT

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI AUG 05 2005

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE
36.1 WEST OR ABOUT 785 MILES...1260 KM... WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH
...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...14.4 N... 36.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT34 KNHC 051437
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI AUG 05 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOST ITS PUNCH...STRENGTHENING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TODAY OR SATURDAY...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
37.3 WEST OR ABOUT 865 MILES...1395 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...16.4 N... 37.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT44 KNHC 051437
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

HOW LITTLE WE KNOW ABOUT THE GENESIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. SATELLITE
IMAGES DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY SHOWED A DISTINCT DISTURBANCE IN THE
DEEP TROPICS WITH ALL KNOWN FACTORS APPARENTLY FAVORABLE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. SURPRISINGLY THIS
MORNING...VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
DISORGANIZED. UNEXPECTEDLY...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVED
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS AND LOST MOST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM STILL MAINTAINS A LARGE AND
VIGOROUS ENVELOPE WITH AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. IT IS INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS WERE DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FROM THIS SYSTEM AND MOVED IT WESTWARD THROUGH THE ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...IN THE LATEST 6Z GFS RUN...THERE IS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. THE GFDL...LIKE THE GFS...ALSO CHANGED ITS TUNE AT 6Z
AND NOW EVEN SHOWS DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS.

GIVEN THESE DRASTIC CHANGES SEEN IN GFS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO
MAKES A DRASTIC CHANGE IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM IS
NOW KEPT AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREAFTER...A MODEST DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WHEN THE CYCLONE
REACHES WARMER WATERS...IF IT SURVIVES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 16.4N 37.3W 25 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 17.5N 39.0W 25 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 18.5N 41.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 19.5N 43.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 20.5N 45.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 23.0N 48.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 26.5N 52.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 30.0N 55.0W 35 KT

000
WTNT34 KNHC 052025
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI AUG 05 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE FOR SURVIVAL...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
39.1 WEST OR ABOUT 990 MILES...1590 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH
...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...17.0 N... 39.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

Come on you can do it... :(

000
WTNT44 KNHC 052025
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO HAVE A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
SOME CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CENTER WHERE THE SSTS ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. IT IS
ESTIMATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25 KNOTS. THE EVOLUTION OF A
LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR BOTH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK
FORECASTS. IF THE LOW MOVES AS FAR SOUTH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...IT
COULD INDUCE WIND SHEAR AND ALSO A NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION TO
THE DEPRESSION...RESULTING IN WEAKENING. HOWEVER...IF THE
DEPRESSION PASSES SOUTH OF THE LOW...THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE LESS
HOSTILE..AND THE OCEAN IS WARMER THERE.

BECAUSE THE DEPRESION DOES NOT HAVE DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME AND
IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
14-16 KNOTS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...AND A MODEST STRENGHTENING BEYOND 3 DAYS. THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS ALSO A STRONG
POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL NOT SURVIVE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NORTHERNMOST
TRACK IS THE GFS AND THE SOUTHERNMOST IS THE UK MODEL.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 17.0N 39.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 18.0N 41.0W 25 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 19.0N 43.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 45.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 48.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 51.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 25.0N 54.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 28.0N 56.0W 45 KT

000
WTNT34 KNHC 060232
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI AUG 05 2005

...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.6 WEST OR ABOUT
1090 MILES...1755 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH
...32 KM/HR...AND GENERAL THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE IS MINIMAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...17.6 N... 40.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT44 KNHC 060234
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE HAS A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS THIS EVENING...BUT THERE IS NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER AT THIS TIME. THE CYCLONE IS OVER 26C-27C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION HAS TAKEN IT INTO
AN AREA OF WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION HAS
INTERRUPTED DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REMAINS 25 KT
BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...ALONG WITH QUIKSCAT AND
SSM/I WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/17. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A LOW/
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. OBSERVATIONS AND
LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGE BETWEEN
50W-60W PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HARVEY...AND THIS
WEAKNESS WILL NOT COMPLETELY FILL DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. IN
RESPONSE...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WITH SOME SLOWING FOR ABOUT 72 HR...AND THEN POSSIBLY TURN
NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE FIRST 2-3
DAYS OF MOTION AND THEN DIVERGES. THE UKMET AND THE BAM MODELS
CALL FOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT 96-120 HR...WHILE
THE NOGAPS...LBAR...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CALL FOR A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES...CALLING FOR A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL CONU. THE FORECAST AFTER 72 HR
IS ALSO SLOWER THAN EARLIER IN LIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N42W WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N44W. THIS SYSTEM HAS CREATED
WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE DEPRESSION. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
SUGGEST A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT COULD CONTINUE FOR 2-3 DAYS AS A
SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION. THE SHIPS MODEL SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THE SYSTEM DESPITE
THE SHEAR AS IT MOVES GRADUALLY OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE OR
DEGENERATE INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE....AS FORECAST BY THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 17.6N 40.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 18.5N 42.6W 25 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 19.6N 44.9W 25 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 20.6N 46.9W 30 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 21.7N 49.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 23.5N 52.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 25.0N 55.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 27.5N 56.5W 45 KT

Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 7


Statement as of 5:00 am AST on August 06, 2005


...Depression becoming a little better organized over the
open tropical Atlantic...

at 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 17.7 north... longitude 41.7 west or about
1405 miles...2265 km... east of the northern Leeward Islands.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph
...24 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a tropical storm by Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.

Repeating the 5 am AST position...17.7 N... 41.7 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 am AST.

Forecaster Stewart


$$

000
WTNT44 KNHC 060844
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005

TD-9 REMAINS A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND THE INNER
CORE WIND FIELD HAS ACTUALLY IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH NO MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS APPARENT IN NIGHTIME
VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS BEING INCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON
THE TIGHTER INNER CIRCULATION...TWO CONSECUTIVE QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES
INDICATING NUMEROUS 30-KT UNFLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT...AND A CIMSS AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 1006.5MB ...EQUAL
TO ABOUT 33 KT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN RECENTLY BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP
INTO A CURVED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE ABOUT 120 NMI AWAY
FROM THE CENTER...WHICH FURTHER SUGGEST IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/13. THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED AND TURNED
MORE WESTWARD NOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED WEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PROBLEMATIC IN
THAT IT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE INTENSITY...AND THEREFORE...THE
VERTICAL DEPTH OF CYCLONE. UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
THESE UNFAVORABLE SHEAR CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE TO A MINIMUM DURING THAT TIME. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER WARMER WATER
AND MORE STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND DEEPENING OF THE VERTICAL
CIRCULATION SHOULD OCCUR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BE
STEERED SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BY THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW TOWARD AN
EXPECTED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 55W-60W
LONGITUDE. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM MOVES MORE WESTWARD AND STAYS
BELOW 20N LATITUDE THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN IT MAY NEVER FEEL THE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND NOT TURN NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE ALREADY TOO FAR TO THE NORTH OR RIGHT OF THE CURRENT
POSITION AND MOTION...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS
THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN A LITTLE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS AFTER
THAT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR LEFT OR SOUTH AS THE UKMET MODEL.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INHIBITING FACTORS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
ABATE FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AFTER THAT SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH IN A
LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAN WHAT THE SHIPS MODEL USED. HOWEVER...
IF THE ACTUAL FORECAST ENDS UP BEING FARTHER SOUTH...THEN WARMER
WATER AND EVEN LESS VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
STRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 17.7N 41.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 18.2N 43.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 18.8N 46.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 19.4N 48.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 20.1N 51.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 21.3N 54.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 10/0600Z 23.0N 57.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/0600Z 25.5N 59.5W 55 KT

$$

061439
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE
DEPRESSION THIS MORNING...EXCEPT THAT MULTIPLE SWIRLS HAVE BEEN
APPARENT NEAR THE MEAN CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT
PASS MISSED THE DEPRESSION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30
KT...IN ACCORD WITH THE PASS FROM LAST NIGHT. CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER IS CURRENTLY VERY LIMITED DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR...DRY
AIR...AND RELATIVELY COOL SSTS. NONE OF THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...HOWEVER...THE
DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING OVER 28C WATER IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. A
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WOULD ALSO KEEP THE
SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE WESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
GFDL GRADUALLY FADES THIS SYSTEM AWAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB RIDGE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HARVY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...LED BY THE
NOGAPS...LIFTS THE DEPRESSION INTO THIS WEAKNESS. THE GFS ACTUALLY
SPLITS THE DEPRESSION...TAKING A PIECE NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS
BUT ALSO CARRYING A WEAK WAVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. IT IS HARD TO BE
CONFIDENT AT THIS POINT ABOUT THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST. IN
THE INTEREST OF CONTINUITY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO ARE SUGGESTING
THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ABOUT 45 NMI
TO THE NORTH OF MY ADVISORY POSITION. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE
DOMINANT CENTER...THEN A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK MAY BE
REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 17.9N 42.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 18.3N 43.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 18.9N 46.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 19.4N 48.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 20.4N 50.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 22.0N 53.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 23.5N 56.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 25.5N 59.0W 50 KT

000
WTNT34 KNHC 061440
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT AUG 06 2005

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 42.3 WEST OR ABOUT
1365 MILES...2200 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...17.9 N... 42.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTNT34 KNHC 062031
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT AUG 06 2005

...DEPRESSION RELOCATED NORTHWARD...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 43.2 WEST OR ABOUT
1305 MILES...2100 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH
...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...19.0 N... 43.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTNT44 KNHC 062032
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005

THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION BECAME BETTER DEFINED LATE THIS
MORNING TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL POSITION ESTIMATE.
THE ADJUSTED TRACK YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/11 AVERAGED OVER
THE PAST 18 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL SHEARED WITH THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION ABOUT 90 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN BANDING HOWEVER...AND OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS STRONGER THAN IT DID THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE ARE
SOME 35 KT WINDS IN THE CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH I HAVE NO DVORAK
ESTIMATES HIGHER THAN 25 KT...AND SO I WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR NOW. THE DEPRESSION IS GOING TO HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH DRY AIR AND WESTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT WATER TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH WILL BE GRADUALLY
INCREASING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE...BUT IS ABOVE THE GFDL...WHICH DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS PERHAPS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON ON A TRACK THAT ULTIMATELY BENDS TO THE RIGHT THROUGH A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
HARVEY. THE 12Z GFS NOW AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
PARTLY DUE THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION...AND
PARTLY TO THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 19.0N 43.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 19.6N 44.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 20.3N 46.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 21.0N 48.7W 30 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 21.6N 50.3W 35 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 22.8N 53.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 25.0N 56.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 27.0N 58.0W 50 KT

000
WTNT34 KNHC 070228
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT AUG 06 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIGHTING A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.3 WEST OR ABOUT
1230 MILES...1985 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...18.9 N... 44.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT44 KNHC 070228
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE STRONGLY SHEARED. THERE IS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS CAN HARDLY
SUPPORT A T-NUMBER BY USING THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE CENTER AND THE
CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. IT IS DIFFICULT
TO VISUALIZE HOW THE CYCLONE WILL SURVIVE WITH THE CURRENT SHEAR
CAUSED BY THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LOW TO ITS NORTH. THE ATLANTIC IS
PLAGUED WITH UPPER-LOWS...A PATTERN THAT IS UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES TO INTENSIFY. THE GFS IS KEEPING THE UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE CYCLONE FOR DAYS...AND BOTH THE GFS AND
THE GFDL RELENTLESSLY INSIST ON DISSIPATING THE CYCLONE. IT IS
HARD TO GO AGAINST THESE TWO MODELS. HOWEVER...CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS WILL BE FOLLOWED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS
BASED ON THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS WHICH HAVE A LESS HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 9 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT MOVING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285
DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE
UK...THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS PREFER A SOUTHERNMOST TRACK
AND THE NOGAPS A NORTHERMOST. THE GFS AND GFDL ARE NOT INCLUDED
SINCE THEY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE QUITE SOON. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST BECAUSE IF THE SHEAR CONTINUES...THERE
WILL BE NOTHING TO TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY GFS AND GFDL MODELS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 18.9N 44.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 19.2N 45.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 19.7N 47.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 20.5N 49.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 21.5N 51.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 23.0N 54.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 11/0000Z 25.0N 57.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 12/0000Z 27.0N 59.5W 50 KT


$$

000
WTNT34 KNHC 070832
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN AUG 07 2005

...DEPRESSION CENTER RE-FORMS NORTHWARD AGAIN...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1205 MILES...1940 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS
RE-FORMED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION DURING THE NIGHT...AND SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...19.6 N... 44.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT44 KNHC 070855
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005

NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE HAS AGAIN REFORMED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY POSITION. WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS SHEARED...CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB AND
AFWA...SO THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A 30 KT DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS RESEMBLING THAT OF A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/9. THE DEPRESSION
REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE LOCATED NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF TROPICAL STORM
HARVEY. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME WEAKNESS WILL PERSIST IN
THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION MOVES WESTWARD AND A
SECOND RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD PRODUCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR POSSIBLY NORTH
THEREAFTER. TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...
WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFDL CALLING FOR A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION AND
THE GFS A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION. THE UKMET TAKES THE
DEPRESSION FARTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS...BUT IT INITIALIZED
THE SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH EVEN BEFORE THE RECENT RE-FORMATION. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION MAY MOVE MORE
WESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST...WHICH EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL
POSITION IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ONE POTENTIAL
PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST TRACK IS THAT THE CENTER MAY NOT BE
THROUGH RE-FORMING JUST YET.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
THE DEPRESSION AND LOTS OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR. THE GFS AND
CANDIAN MODELS FORECAST A SURGE OF UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES TO
DEVELOP AND REPLACE THE TROUGH WITH AN ANTICYCLONE. THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS ARE LESS BULLISH ON THIS POSSIBILITY...AND SO FAR THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS CONTINUED SHEAR. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION AND GRADUALLY WARMING SE SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. IF THE GFS/CANADIAN
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN DOES DEVELOP...THE SYSTEM COULD GET MUCH
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL
MODEL...WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY DISSIPATED THE DEPRESSION...NOW
CALLS FOR IT TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 19.6N 44.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 20.0N 46.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 20.7N 48.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 21.4N 50.2W 35 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 22.2N 52.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 23.5N 55.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 25.5N 57.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 12/0600Z 28.0N 60.0W 55 KT


$$

000
WTNT34 KNHC 071444
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN AUG 07 2005

...NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...EARLIEST NINTH STORM ON RECORD...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 45.5 WEST OR ABOUT
1160 MILES...1865 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...20.5 N... 45.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTNT44 KNHC 071444
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005

THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THE BASIS OF A
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0849Z THIS MORNING...SHOWING 40 KT VECTORS JUST
OUTSIDE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE
AMBIGUITY VECTORS FROM THIS PASS ALSO SHOW THE DYING CENTER THAT
WAS TRACKED WESTWARD LAST EVENING AND THE BEGINNINGS OF THE NEW
CENTER THAT FORMED FARTHER NORTH. THE STORM UPGRADE IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA.
SINCE THE TIME OF THE QUIKSCAT PASS...THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER AS WELL AS THE ORGANIZATION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 35 KT.

IT IS SOMETIMES MORE PRODUCTIVE TO TRACK THE OVERALL DISTURBANCE
THAN THE CIRCULATION CENTER ITSELF...IN THIS CASE IGNORING THE
CIRCULATIONS THAT HAVE FORMED...MOVED MORE WESTWARD...AND THEN
DIED...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY NEW CENTERS TO THE NORTH. DOING SO
YIELDS AN OVERALL SYSTEM MOTION OF 300/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY LIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF IRENE. THE GFS...NOGAPS...
UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A
GENERAL...IF ERRATIC...WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THEN TURN
NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS TO THE EAST OF THIS RIDGE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS
AND IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

IRENE IS ONLY SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD WARMER WATERS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AN UNFAVORABLE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS.
CONSEQUENTLY...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE GFDL NO LONGER MAKES IRENE A HURRICANE AND IN FACT SHOWS
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH
FAVORS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO WARMER WATERS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF LESS SHEAR.

THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES ON ITS RECORD-SETTING PACE.
IRENE IS THE EARLIEST NINTH NAMED STORM ON RECORD...BREAKING THE
OLD MARK BY 13 DAYS. NORMALLY BY THIS DATE ONLY TWO NAMED STORMS
HAVE FORMED.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 20.5N 45.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 47.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 49.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.1N 50.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 22.8N 52.1W 40 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 24.5N 55.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 27.5N 58.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 12/1200Z 31.0N 59.5W 55 KT

000
WTNT34 KNHC 072036
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN AUG 07 2005

...POORLY ORGANIZED IRENE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1100
MILES...1765 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.1 N... 46.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTNT44 KNHC 072036
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005

THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE THIS MORNING
HAS DISSIPATED OR BEEN LEFT BEHIND BY WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR NOW...BUT IF CONVECTION DOES
NOT RETURN THE CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN. FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO IRENE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY DRY AIR AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE CYCLONE MAY
WELL NOT SURVIVE THIS TRIP BUT IF IT DOES...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER PATTERN MAY EXIST AFTER 48 HOURS.
WATER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG THE PATH
OF IRENE SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE GFDL MODEL DISSIPATES IRENE WITHIN
48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CURRENTLY LIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF IRENE. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE CANADIAN MODEL...GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE
WESTWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD
INTO A WEAKNESS TO THE EAST OF THIS RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 21.1N 46.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 21.7N 47.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 22.4N 49.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 51.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 23.8N 53.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 26.0N 55.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 29.0N 58.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 12/1800Z 32.5N 58.0W 50 KT


$$

316
WTNT44 KNHC 080243
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005

A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER AND IN
A SMALL BAND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...BUT OVERALL THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS RATHER PALTRY. EVEN THOUGH IRENE DOES NOT LOOK MUCH
LIKE A TROPICAL STORM ON SATELLITE IMAGES...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM
AROUND 2115 UTC SHOWED SOME UNCONTAMINATED 35 KT VECTORS IN THE
CIRCULATION. THUS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
AFTERWARDS...ASSUMING IRENE SURVIVES...IT WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND...PERHAPS...MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS. THEREFORE SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER 36
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT.

INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 300/10. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST. IRENE IS BEING
STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT...INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 21.5N 47.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 22.2N 49.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 22.9N 50.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 23.6N 52.4W 35 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 24.5N 54.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 27.0N 57.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 30.0N 59.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 13/0000Z 33.0N 59.0W 50 KT

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN AUG 07 2005

...POORLY-ORGANIZED IRENE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1025 MILES...1650 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...21.5 N... 47.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

000
WTNT34 KNHC 080833
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST MON AUG 08 2005

...IRENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE OPEN ATLANTIC AS A
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.9 WEST OR ABOUT 955
MILES...1540 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...21.9 N... 48.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT44 KNHC 080854
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2005

A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER OF
IRENE DURING THE PAST 6 HR...ALTHOUGH THE BURST IS LESS IMPRESSIVE
THAT THE ONE AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND BASED ON THIS IRENE MAY HAVE
WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...ANY DOWNGRADE CAN WAIT UNTIL
AFTER DATA FROM THE NEXT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS ARRIVES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

THE 12-HR INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY
BE A LITTLE LEFT OF THAT AND FASTER. IRENE REMAINS SOUTH OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH LARGE-MODELS FORECASTING THIS TO PERSIST
FOR 48-72 HR. THIS SHOULD KEEP IRENE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
HEADING FOR THAT TIME. BEYOND 72 HR...MANY MODELS FORECAST IRENE
TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE U. S. NORTHEAST COAST. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS TURNING
IRENE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 96 HR...THE NOGAPS DOING SO IN SPITE OF A
SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT SINCE ITS LAST RUN. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE BAM MODELS DO NOT SHOW A NORTHWARD TURN...CONTINUING
IRENE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 120 HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHERLY TURN AFTER 72 HR...ALTHOUGH THE
ENTIRE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOMEWHAT WESTWARD FROM 6 HR AGO.
HOWEVER...THE TRACK IS NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE
THROUGH 96 HR...AND IT MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED FARTHER WESTWARD
AFTER THE NEXT ROUND OF MODEL RUNS.

IRENE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT STRENGTHENING EVEN THOUGH THE STORM WILL BE MOVING OVER
WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS NEAR IRENE. THE NOGAPS BUILDS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
STORM...WHILE THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN BUILD A MORE MODEST
RIDGE. HOW MUCH OF THIS DEVELOPMENT IS DUE TO THE MODEL OUTFLOW
FROM IRENE IS UNKNOWN...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING THIS MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHEAR THAT WILL ALLOW SOME
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES
IRENE OVER COOLER SSTS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE GFDL IS AGAIN DISSIPATING IRENE IN LESS THAN 48 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 21.9N 48.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 22.6N 50.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 23.4N 52.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 09/1800Z 24.2N 54.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 10/0600Z 25.1N 55.9W 45 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 27.0N 58.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 30.0N 60.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 13/0600Z 33.0N 60.0W 50 KT

000
WTNT34 KNHC 081442
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON AUG 08 2005

...IRENE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 50.7 WEST OR ABOUT
855 MILES...1375 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH
...26 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...22.4 N... 50.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

000
WTNT44 KNHC 081500
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2005

THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY SEPARATED
FROM WHAT IS LEFT OF THE CONVECTION TO ITS EAST THAT OCCURRED
OVERNIGHT. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 0820Z MISSED MOST OF THE
CIRCULATION BUT DID INDICATE SOME 35 KT WINDS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER... AT THAT
TIME THE CONVECTION WAS DEEPER AND MORE INVOLVED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER THAN IT HAS BEEN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... SO IT IS
PROBABLY SAFE TO ASSUME THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THEN.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO FALLEN TO 30 KT. IRENE IS
THEREFORE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT WINDS. A
LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS RESUMED JUST EAST OF THE
CENTER...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS IS THE START OF A
COMEBACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSER TO THE GFDL THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE ALWAYS INTERDEPENDENT TO SOME
DEGREE...BUT FOR IRENE...ESPECIALLY IN THE 3-5 DAY PERIOD...ONE
COULD AFFECT THE OTHER PERHAPS MORE SO THAN USUAL. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14. BASED ON A IRENE REMAINING WEAKER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE
FORECAST...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM FARTHER WEST THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS SCENARIO IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFDL...ECMWF...AND BAM SHALLOW SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 22.4N 50.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 22.9N 52.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 23.5N 54.3W 30 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 24.0N 56.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 24.6N 58.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 26.5N 63.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 29.0N 66.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 13/1200Z 31.0N 67.0W 45 KT

Tropical Depression Irene Discussion Number 17


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 08, 2005



convection has persisted to the east of the low level
center this afternoon... often emanating from the center itself.
However... the low level center remains exposed Dvorak intensity
estimates remain t2.0/30 kt. Although it is possible that tropical
storm force winds are reaching the surface in a limited area within
the sparse convection... Irene is maintained as 30 kt depression
for this advisory. The system is struggling to reorganize within a
fairly dry and stable environment with moderate vertical shear.
These conditions should be slow to change along the forecast
track... and accordingly the SHIPS guidance shows gradual
strengthening to 45 kt by 60 hours...continuing on to 62 kt by 120
hours. However... the GFDL dissipates the system within a couple
of days. The official forecast will compromise and remain similar
to the previous advisory... showing modest and gradual
strengthening.

When the convection redeveloped this morning... the low level center
slowed down in response. Smoothing through the stop-and-go motion
during the past 12 hours or so yields an initial motion of 285/10.
The new official forecast is basically an update of the previous
advisory... and there is a little more confidence in this track now
since some of the models that were eastern outliers this morning...
such as the UKMET and NOGAPS... have shifted westward.
Therefore... models are coming into better agreement that a system
of moderate tropical storm strength will move west-northwestward
along the southern periphery of the lower/mid level subtropical
ridge. The slow motion shown at the end of the official forecast
is indicative of the great uncertainty late in the period...when
the spread in the models is still quite significant.

Forecaster Knabb


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 08/2100z 22.5n 51.5w 30 kt
12hr VT 09/0600z 23.0n 53.1w 30 kt
24hr VT 09/1800z 23.6n 55.4w 35 kt
36hr VT 10/0600z 24.3n 57.8w 35 kt
48hr VT 10/1800z 25.1n 59.7w 40 kt
72hr VT 11/1800z 27.0n 63.5w 40 kt
96hr VT 12/1800z 29.5n 66.5w 45 kt
120hr VT 13/1800z 31.5n 67.0w 45 kt