000
ABNT20 KNHC 121517
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA
AND ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS FORMED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA


Come on Jose come on. We need you to keep this year in the lead over 1995.


It looks almost as good as Irene right now.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962005) ON 20050812 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050812 1800 050813 0600 050813 1800 050814 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.8N 42.5W 12.2N 44.5W 12.9N 45.7W 13.7N 46.5W
BAMM 11.8N 42.5W 11.9N 44.3W 12.3N 45.5W 12.8N 46.4W
A98E 11.8N 42.5W 11.8N 44.8W 11.9N 47.0W 12.2N 49.0W
LBAR 11.8N 42.5W 12.2N 44.5W 13.3N 46.1W 14.5N 47.3W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050814 1800 050815 1800 050816 1800 050817 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 47.1W 15.8N 48.3W 17.8N 50.3W 20.2N 53.0W
BAMM 13.0N 47.2W 12.8N 49.1W 12.7N 51.9W 11.7N 56.2W
A98E 12.6N 50.9W 13.7N 54.3W 15.1N 57.4W 17.3N 60.1W
LBAR 15.8N 48.2W 18.7N 49.7W 23.1N 53.0W 28.1N 55.7W
SHIP 48KTS 56KTS 61KTS 67KTS
DSHP 48KTS 56KTS 61KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 42.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 40.3W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 37.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

ABNT20 KNHC 122122
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON STRENGTHENING
TROPICAL STORM IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA
AND ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WELL-DEFINED
LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

they are forecasting a quick recurve. why?

000
ABNT20 KNHC 130251
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA
AND ABOUT 590 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050813 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050813 1800 050814 0600 050814 1800 050815 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 44.6W 15.1N 45.6W 16.2N 46.4W 17.3N 47.3W
BAMM 14.0N 44.6W 14.7N 45.6W 15.4N 46.5W 16.0N 47.4W
A98E 14.0N 44.6W 15.0N 45.9W 16.0N 47.2W 17.2N 48.5W
LBAR 14.0N 44.6W 15.1N 45.5W 16.6N 46.4W 17.9N 47.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS 43KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050815 1800 050816 1800 050817 1800 050818 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.5N 48.4W 21.2N 50.7W 24.4N 53.3W 27.8N 54.0W
BAMM 16.6N 48.5W 17.6N 51.2W 18.9N 54.8W 21.2N 58.7W
A98E 18.8N 49.9W 22.4N 52.7W 25.0N 54.9W 27.2N 54.4W
LBAR 19.5N 48.8W 23.2N 52.1W 27.2N 55.2W 30.8N 54.2W
SHIP 46KTS 52KTS 56KTS 61KTS
DSHP 46KTS 52KTS 56KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 44.6W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 43.3W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 42.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

000
WTNT35 KNHC 132018
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT AUG 13 2005

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC...EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.9 WEST OR
ABOUT 1100 MILES...1765 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...14.3 N... 44.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

000
WTNT45 KNHC 132019
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC...EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND BASED
ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS.

CURRENTLY...THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH SOME
CURVED BANDS AND OUTFLOW EXPANDING WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THIS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT LAST FOR LONG. UNANIMOULSY...ALL
GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A RATHER STRONG AND UNUSUALLY DEEP
UPPER-TROUGH BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE DEPRESSION. THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEPRESSION
TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. SHIPS MODEL FORECAST A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION...AND THE GFDL THAT FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS MADE THIS
DISTURBANCE A STRONG HURRICANE...NO LONGER STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE.
DUE TO THE UPPER-TROUGH...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONLY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING AFTER 3 DAYS...WHEN THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA. ALL THIS IS VALID IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

THE DEPRESSION IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. BEST ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OF 315
DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THE
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS
PATTERN WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THERAFTER...AS A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...GFDL AND THE ECMWF MODELS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE NOAA BUOY 41041. THE
DATA FROM THE BUOY WILL GIVE US A BETTER STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE
OR IF EXISTS AT ALL.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 14.3N 44.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 15.0N 46.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 16.5N 47.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 48.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 18.5N 49.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 20.5N 52.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 22.5N 55.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 24.0N 59.5W 50 KT

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT AUG 13 2005

...TENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE
45.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1090 MILES...1755 KM... EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...
15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION BEING POORLY DEFINED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...15.0 N... 45.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS TAKEN ON
THE APPEARN CE OF A SHEARED SYSTEM...WHILE WIND REPORTS FROM NOAA
BUOY 41041 AND A 13/2349Z SSMI OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT BROAD
CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE LOCATED NEAR 14N46W...OR ABOUT 90 NMI
SOUTHWEST OF THE ADVISORY POSITION. HOWEVER...THE SSMI DATA MAY BE
DEPICTING ONE OF SEVERAL SMALL CIRCULATIONS THAT MAY BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE REMNANTS OF THE ITCZ...SO THE OFFICIAL POSITION WAS
BASED ON CONTUNITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MOTION AND KEPT NEAR
THE SIDE OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BEING KEPT AT 30 KT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 315/08. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
THE GFDL MODEL ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT. A STAIR-STEP MAY OCCUR IN THE TRACK
BETWEEN 48 AND 96 HOURS AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLS AND MOVES WESTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY 120 HOURS.

THE DEPRESSION IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE IRENE-JUNIOR AS IT
UNDERGOES SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH THE OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THROW IN SOME DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR AND YOU HAVE THE MAKINGS FOR A DIFFICULT INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HOURS BY THE SHIPS MODEL
...SO THE INTENSITY IT GRADUALLY INCREASED AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS
...THE LATTER OF WHICH MAKES THE CYCLONE A 70-KT HURRICANE BY 120H.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 15.0N 45.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 15.8N 46.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 16.9N 47.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 17.5N 48.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 18.6N 50.3W 40 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 20.3N 53.8W 45 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 23.2N 57.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 25.0N 61.5W 55 KT

000
WTNT35 KNHC 140847
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2005

...DEPRESSION POORLY ORGANIZED AND MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.4 WEST OR ABOUT
1055 MILES...1695 KM... EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.6 N... 46.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$

000
WTNT45 KNHC 140910
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

A SHARP AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SHEARED THE DEPRESSION TO
THE POINT THAT AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL SWIRL HAS CLEARLY EMERGED FROM
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO ITS NORTHEAST. THIS LOW
LEVEL CENTER HAD BEEN DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST
12 HOURS OR SO... BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST IT HAS BEGUN
MOVING WESTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6. THERE IS
ESSENTIALLY NO CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER... AND THE
ONLY NEARBY CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ABOUT 100 N MI DOWNSHEAR. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH
THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS. IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RESUME CLOSER
TO THE CENTER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... THE DEPRESSION COULD
LOSE ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER... AS IRENE DID...
THIS CYCLONE COULD PROVE TENACIOUS ENOUGH TO SURVIVE THE
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WHICH COULD SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24-36
HOURS.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS BEGUN MOVING AGAIN... IT SEEMS LIKELY IT
WILL RESUME A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
WHILE ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD INDUCE A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.... AS AGREED UPON BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
EVEN IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH DURING THE NEXT THREE
DAYS... AS INDICATED IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST... EVEN THE
LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. IF THE SYSTEM
SURVIVES... UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD... AND IT COULD STILL EVENTUALLY REACH TROPICAL
STORM STATUS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 13.6N 46.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 14.3N 47.2W 25 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 15.4N 48.4W 25 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 16.5N 49.7W 25 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 17.5N 51.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 20.0N 54.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 22.0N 57.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 24.5N 60.5W 40 KT

000
WTNT35 KNHC 141439
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2005

...DEPRESSION DISSIPATING...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME VERY POORLY
DEFINED.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE DISSIPATING CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST OR
ABOUT 1045 MILES...1680 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THE DEPRESSION'S REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...13.8 N... 46.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER PASCH

000
WTNT45 KNHC 141440
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE DEPRESSION. THERE IS
STILL A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS EVIDENCED BY LOW CLOUD MOTIONS AND
A QUIKSCAT PASS...BUT IT IS WEAK...20-25 KT. BECAUSE THE SYSTEM
DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...IT NO LONGER
MEETS THE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE ADVISORIES
ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY
RELAX OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
REGENERATION...AND THE DEPRESSION'S REMNANTS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT AND INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY
320/6. THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...UNLESS
REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 13.8N 46.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

14/2345 UTC 14.4N 47.4W T1.0/1.0 10

15/0615 UTC 14.7N 48.3W T1.5/1.5 10 -- Atlantic Ocean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 160914
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...
IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED AND CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER THIS MORNING. WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

16/2345 UTC 16.4N 53.9W T1.5/1.5 10 -- Atlantic Ocean

1500 UTC 8/17/2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 FORECAST #6

This is an independent product. An official NHC upgrade may not have yet been made

Morning visible satellite imagery shows a well-defined closed surface circulation with building convection. Dvorak estimates remain at 25KT; therefore, this is the initial intensity.

Track guidance has shifted significantly left of last night. Now, guidance has the storm moving just north of the islands, toward Florida early next week, under the influence of a strong ridge of high-pressure. WV imagery shows a weakness to the north of the system, but this is assumed to be too far to the north to have any significant impact on the cyclone. To preserve some continuity with the previous forecast, I will not shift as far to the left as guidance has.

An upper low is spotted on WV to the north of the islands While this has been imparting westerly shear to the depression, this feature has been moving away and the shear has been slowly decreasing over 10. In fact, the outflow is slowly becoming better defined this morning. SHIPS now forecasts 70KT in 120 hours, while SHIFOR forecasts 65KT. In contrast, the GFDL and the global models dissipate the system and only the MM5 run off of the NOGAPS shows intensification. The key will be the evolution of the upper low to the NW. If it continues moving to the west, then conditions should favor further development, though if the low stalls, or 10 accelerates, strong shear would return to the depression. As a compromise, I will not forecast hurricane intensity yet, though I will now indicate a peak intensity in 120 hours of 60KT, close to the SHIFOR.

Initial (1200 UTC): 16.5N 55.7W 25KT
12 Hour: 17.4N 57.6W 30KT
24 Hour: 18.3N 59.5W 30KT
36 Hour: 19.2N 61.4W 35KT
48 Hour: 20.1N 63.3W 40KT
72 Hour: 21.9N 66.8W 45KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 23.9N 70.5W 50KT
120 Hour: 25.9N 74.5W 60KT

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt


I agree with Derek. I don't understand why the nhc is not writing Advisories. :huh:

0300 UTC 8/18/2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 FORECAST #7

This is an independent product

After showing signs of organization the past couple of days, Tropical Depression 10 has reverted back to a convectionless swirl this evening. Wind shear, which was decreasing, has started to increase and the SAL, which had been non existent, is rapidly catching the system. For now, I will keep this as an identifiable feature throughout the period; however, the intensity forecast is significantly curtailed, now only indicating 35KT in 120 hours as WV continues to show an upper low in the path of the cyclone, which should continue to produce significant shear. This assumes that the system survives the night, which is not looking likely.

Since 10 is expected to remain a shallow cyclone or a wave through the period, this track closely follows the BAM medium and shallow models, slightly south of the previous track.

Initial: 17.6N 57.5W 25KT
12 Hour: 18.5N 59.4W 25KT
24 Hour: 19.4N 61.3W 25KT
36 Hour: 20.2N 63.3W 25KT
48 Hour: 21.0N 65.3W 25KT
72 Hour: 22.5N 69.0W 30KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 24.0N 72.5W 30KT
120 Hour: 25.3N 75.5W 35KT

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050819 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050819 1800 050820 0600 050820 1800 050821 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 21.2N 67.6W 21.8N 69.3W 22.1N 71.1W 22.2N 73.0W

BAMM 21.2N 67.6W 21.7N 69.4W 22.1N 71.4W 22.3N 73.1W

A98E 21.2N 67.6W 22.0N 69.8W 22.7N 72.0W 22.9N 74.2W

LBAR 21.2N 67.6W 21.9N 69.5W 22.6N 71.6W 23.0N 73.8W

SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS

DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050821 1800 050822 1800 050823 1800 050824 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 22.1N 74.7W 21.7N 77.5W 21.8N 79.8W 22.6N 83.0W

BAMM 22.4N 74.7W 22.4N 77.1W 23.0N 78.8W 24.2N 81.3W

A98E 22.6N 76.7W 22.4N 81.2W 21.8N 85.4W 21.6N 89.2W

LBAR 23.4N 76.1W 24.0N 80.2W 24.7N 83.3W 25.4N 85.9W

SHIP 45KTS 58KTS 69KTS 76KTS

DSHP 45KTS 58KTS 69KTS 76KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 21.2N LONCUR = 67.6W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

LATM12 = 20.4N LONM12 = 65.6W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 16KT

LATM24 = 18.8N LONM24 = 62.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

A LLC is forming around 21.5/67.5 in is heading westward. There is only pop corn convection. But this system looks to becoming organized enough to be moved back into the spot light.

A fact tropical storm Jerry formed on the 22th of August 1995. It hit Eastern Florida...Could this repeat history it could. But it will likely move through or near the keys.

WHXX01 KWBC 200024
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050820 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050820 0000 050820 1200 050821 0000 050821 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.3N 68.7W 21.9N 70.7W 22.2N 72.9W 22.2N 75.0W
BAMM 21.3N 68.7W 21.8N 70.8W 22.2N 72.9W 22.4N 74.9W
A98E 21.3N 68.7W 22.0N 70.8W 22.8N 72.8W 23.2N 75.0W
LBAR 21.3N 68.7W 22.0N 70.9W 22.5N 73.0W 23.1N 75.4W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050822 0000 050823 0000 050824 0000 050825 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.1N 77.0W 21.6N 80.0W 21.7N 82.3W 22.6N 85.6W
BAMM 22.5N 76.5W 22.7N 79.0W 23.6N 81.1W 25.3N 83.8W
A98E 22.9N 77.4W 23.0N 81.6W 22.8N 85.2W 23.3N 88.8W
LBAR 23.3N 77.7W 24.1N 81.5W 24.9N 84.5W 26.1N 87.6W
SHIP 46KTS 60KTS 70KTS 74KTS
DSHP 46KTS 60KTS 70KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.3N LONCUR = 68.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 21.0N LONM12 = 66.8W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 19.5N LONM24 = 63.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY...
WHICH IS POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN...HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.